Forestation at the right time with the right species can generate persistent carbon benefits in China.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 120(41): e2304988120, 2023 10 10.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37782782
ABSTRACT
Previous evaluations on the biophysical potential of forest carbon sink have focused on forestation area distribution and the associated carbon stock for equilibrium-state forests after centuries-long growth. These approaches, however, have limited relevance for climate policies because they ignore the near-term and mid-term decadal carbon uptake dynamics and suitable forest species for forestation. This study developed a forestation roadmap to support China's "carbon neutrality" objective in 2060 by addressing three key questions of forestation where, with what forest species, and when to afforest. The results yielded a high-confidence potential forestation map for China at a resolution of 1 km with the identified optimal native forest type or species. Our analysis revealed an additional 78 Mha suitable for forestation up to the 2060s, a 43% increase on the current forest area. Selecting forest species for maximal carbon stock in addition to maximizing local environmental suitability enabled almost a doubling in forest carbon sink potential. Progressive forestation of this area can fix a considerable amount of CO2 and compensate for the carbon sink decline in existing forests. Altogether, the entire forest ecosystem can support a persistent biophysical carbon sink potential of 0.4 Pg C y-1 by 2060 and 0.2 Pg C y-1 by 2100, offsetting 7 to 14% of the current national fossil CO2 emissions. Our research provides an example of building a forestation roadmap toward a sustained forest carbon sink, which creates a critical time window for the emission cuts required by the goal of carbon neutrality.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Árvores
/
Ecossistema
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China