Machine learning using multimodal and autonomic nervous system parameters predicts clinically apparent stroke-associated pneumonia in a development and testing study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) is a preventable determinant for poor outcome after stroke. Machine learning (ML) using large-scale clinical data warehouses may be able to predict SAP and identify patients for targeted interventions. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for identifying clinically apparent SAP using automated ML. METHODS: The ML model used clinical and laboratory parameters along with heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV), and blood pressure (BP) values obtained during the first 48 h after stroke unit admission. A logistic regression classifier was developed and internally validated with a nested-cross-validation (nCV) approach. For every shuffle, the model was first trained and validated with a fixed threshold for 0.9 sensitivity, then finally tested on the out-of-sample data and benchmarked against a widely validated clinical score (A2DS2). RESULTS: We identified 2390 eligible patients admitted to two-stroke units at Charité between October 2020 and June 2023, of whom 1755 had all parameters available. SAP was diagnosed in 96/1755 (5.5%). Circadian profiles in HR, HRV, and BP metrics during the first 48 h after admission exhibited distinct differences between patients with SAP diagnosis vs. those without. CRP, mRS at admission, leukocyte count, high-frequency power in HRV, stroke severity at admission, sex, and diastolic BP were identified as the most informative ML features. We obtained an AUC of 0.91 (CI 0.88-0.95) for the ML model on the out-of-sample data in comparison to an AUC of 0.84 (CI 0.76-0.91) for the previously established A2DS2 score (p < 0.001). The ML model provided a sensitivity of 0.87 (CI 0.75-0.97) with a corresponding specificity of 0.82 (CI 0.78-0.85) which outperformed the A2DS2 score for multiple cutoffs. CONCLUSIONS: Automated, data warehouse-based prediction of clinically apparent SAP in the stroke unit setting is feasible, benefits from the inclusion of vital signs, and could be useful for identifying high-risk patients or prophylactic pneumonia management in clinical routine.