Hybrid model of CT-fractional flow reserve, pericoronary fat attenuation index and radiomics for predicting the progression of WMH: a dual-center pilot study.

ABSTRACT

Objective: To develop and validate a hybrid model incorporating CT-fractional flow reserve (CT-FFR), pericoronary fat attenuation index (pFAI), and radiomics signatures for predicting progression of white matter hyperintensity (WMH). Methods: A total of 226 patients who received coronary computer tomography angiography (CCTA) and brain magnetic resonance imaging from two hospitals were divided into a training set (n = 116), an internal validation set (n = 30), and an external validation set (n = 80). Patients who experienced progression of WMH were identified from subsequent MRI results. We calculated CT-FFR and pFAI from CCTA images using semi-automated software, and segmented the pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) and myocardial ROI. A total of 1,073 features were extracted from each ROI, and were then refined by Elastic Net Regression. Firstly, different machine learning algorithms (Logistic Regression [LR], Support Vector Machine [SVM], Random Forest [RF], k-nearest neighbor [KNN] and eXtreme Gradient Gradient Boosting Machine [XGBoost]) were used to evaluate the effectiveness of radiomics signatures for predicting WMH progression. Then, the optimal machine learning algorithm was used to compare the predictive performance of individual and hybrid models based on independent risk factors of WMH progression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate predictive performance and clinical value of the different models. Results: CT-FFR, pFAI, and radiomics signatures were independent predictors of WMH progression. Based on the machine learning algorithms, the PCAT signatures led to slightly better predictions than the myocardial signatures and showed the highest AUC value in the XGBoost algorithm for predicting WMH progression (AUC 0.731 [95% CI 0.603-0.838] vs.0.711 [95% CI 0.584-0.822]). In addition, pFAI provided better predictions than CT-FFR (AUC 0.762 [95% CI 0.651-0.863] vs. 0.682 [95% CI 0.547-0.799]). A hybrid model that combined CT-FFR, pFAI, and two radiomics signatures provided the best predictions of WMH progression [AUC 0.893 (95%CI 0.815-0.956)]. Conclusion: pFAI was more effective than CT-FFR, and PCAT signatures were more effective than myocardial signatures in predicting WMH progression. A hybrid model that combines pFAI, CT-FFR, and two radiomics signatures has potential use for identifying WMH progression.