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Adaptive sequential surveillance with network and temporal dependence.
Malenica, Ivana; Coyle, Jeremy R; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya L.
Afiliação
  • Malenica I; Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States.
  • Coyle JR; Division of Biostatistics, Berkeley, CA 94704, United States.
  • van der Laan MJ; Preva Group, Seattle, WA, 98104, United States.
  • Petersen ML; Division of Biostatistics, Berkeley, CA 94704, United States.
Biometrics ; 80(1)2024 Jan 29.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38281772
ABSTRACT
Strategic test allocation is important for control of both emerging and existing pandemics (eg, COVID-19, HIV). It supports effective epidemic control by (1) reducing transmission via identifying cases and (2) tracking outbreak dynamics to inform targeted interventions. However, infectious disease surveillance presents unique statistical challenges. For instance, the true outcome of interest (positive infection status) is often a latent variable. In addition, presence of both network and temporal dependence reduces data to a single observation. In this work, we study an adaptive sequential design, which allows for unspecified dependence among individuals and across time. Our causal parameter is the mean latent outcome we would have obtained, if, starting at time t given the observed past, we had carried out a stochastic intervention that maximizes the outcome under a resource constraint. The key strength of the method is that we do not have to model network and time dependence a short-term performance Online Super Learner is used to select among dependence models and randomization schemes. The proposed strategy learns the optimal choice of testing over time while adapting to the current state of the outbreak and learning across samples, through time, or both. We demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed strategy in an agent-based simulation modeling a residential university environment during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Doenças Transmissíveis / COVID-19 Tipo de estudo: Clinical_trials / Prognostic_studies / Screening_studies Limite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Biometrics Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Doenças Transmissíveis / COVID-19 Tipo de estudo: Clinical_trials / Prognostic_studies / Screening_studies Limite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Biometrics Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos