Establishment and validation of nomograms to predict the overall survival and cancer-specific survival for non-metastatic bladder cancer patients: A large population-based cohort study and external validation.

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to develop nomograms to accurately predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of non-metastatic bladder cancer (BC) patients. Clinicopathological information of 260,412 non-metastatic BC patients was downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2000 to 2020. LASSO method and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis were utilized to discover the independent risk factors, which were used to develop nomograms. The accuracy and discrimination of models were tested by the consistency index (C-index), the area under the subject operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to test the clinical value of nomograms compared with the TNM staging system. Nomograms predicting OS and CSS were constructed after identifying independent prognostic factors. The C-index of the training, internal validation and external validation cohort for OS was 0.722 (95%CI 0.720-0.724), 0.723 (95%CI 0.721-0.725) and 0.744 (95%CI 0.677-0.811). The C-index of the training, internal validation and external validation cohort for CSS was 0.794 (95%CI 0.792-0.796), 0.793 (95%CI 0.789-0.797) and 0.879 (95%CI 0.814-0.944). The AUC and the calibration curves showed good accuracy and discriminability. The DCA showed favorable clinical potential value of nomograms. Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test uncovered statistically significance survival difference between high- and low-risk groups. We developed nomograms to predict OS and CSS for non-metastatic BC patients. The models have been internally and externally validated with accuracy and discrimination and can assist clinicians to make better clinical decisions.