Movement-driven modelling reveals new patterns in disease transmission networks.

ABSTRACT

Interspecific interactions are highly relevant in the potential transmission of shared pathogens in multi-host systems. In recent decades, several technologies have been developed to study pathogen transmission, such as proximity loggers, GPS tracking devices and/or camera traps. Despite the diversity of methods aimed at detecting contacts, the analysis of transmission risk is often reduced to contact rates and the probability of transmission given the contact. However, the latter process is continuous over time and unique for each contact, and is influenced by the characteristics of the contact and the pathogen's relationship with both the host and the environment. Our objective was to assess whether a more comprehensive approach, using a movement-based model which assigns a unique transmission risk to each contact by decomposing transmission into contact formation, contact duration and host characteristics, could reveal disease transmission dynamics that are not detected with more traditional approaches. The model was built from GPS-collar data from two management systems in Spain where animal tuberculosis (TB) circulates a national park with extensively reared endemic cattle, and an area with extensive free-range pigs and cattle farms. In addition, we evaluated the effect of the GPS device fix rate on the performance of the model. Different transmission dynamics were identified between both management systems. Considering the specific conditions under which each contact occurs (i.e. whether the contact is direct or indirect, its duration, the hosts characteristics, the environmental conditions, etc.) resulted in the identification of different transmission dynamics compared to using only contact rates. We found that fix intervals greater than 30 min in the GPS tracking data resulted in missed interactions, and intervals greater than 2 h may be insufficient for epidemiological purposes. Our study shows that neglecting the conditions under which each contact occurs may result in a misidentification of the real role of each species in disease transmission. This study describes a clear and repeatable framework to study pathogen transmission from GPS data and provides further insights to understand how TB is maintained in multi-host systems in Mediterranean environments.