A risk-prediction score about colorectal lesions based on the Chinese population of high-risk participants aged 50-65 years.
Public Health
; 234: 164-169, 2024 Sep.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-39013238
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
The present study aims to develop an effective risk-prediction score (RPS) to improve screening efficiency and contribute to secondary prevention of colorectal cancer (CRC). STUDYDESIGN:
Screening for colorectal lesions.METHODS:
14,398 high-risk individuals aged 50-65 years were included. The baseline characteristics of participants with and without colorectal lesions (CL) were compared using a Chi-squared test. The overall population was randomly split into a training set and a test set in the ratio of 80% and 20%. One-factor and multifactor logistic regression analyses were performed in the training set to construct the RPS (scores of 0-9.62). Area under curve (AUC) was calculated as an estimate of predictive performance using the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve in the test set.RESULTS:
In the study population, being male, advanced age, current or previous smoking, weekly alcohol consumption, high body mass index (BMI ≥24 kg/m2), and previously detected colonic polyp were associated with higher risk of CL. Compared to the low-risk group (0-2.31 points), the ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the moderate-risk group (2.31-3.85 points) and high-risk group (3.85-8.42 points) were 1.58 (1.44, 1.73) and 2.52 (2.30, 2.76), respectively. For every 1-point increase in score, participants had a 27% increased risk of CL (OR1.27, 95% CI 1.24, 1.30). For participants with CL predicted by RPS, the area under the working characteristic curve was 0.61 (P < 0.001).CONCLUSION:
Our RPS can quickly and efficiently identify multiple lesions of the colorectum. Combining RPS with existing screening strategies facilitates the identification of very high-risk individuals and may help to prevent CRC.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias Colorretais
Limite:
Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Public Health
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China