Modelling the growth, survival and death of microorganisms in foods: the UK food micromodel approach.

ABSTRACT

Techniques for the development of mathematical models in the area of predictive microbiology have greatly improved recently, allowing better and more accurate descriptions of microbial responses to particular environmental conditions, thus enabling predictions of those responses to be made with greater confidence. Recognising the potential value of applying these techniques in the food industry, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) initiated a nationally coordinated five-year programme of research into the growth and survival of microorganisms in foods, with the aim of developing a computerised Predictive Microbiology Database in the UK. This initiative has resulted in the systematic generation of data, through protocols which ensure consistency of methodology, so that data in the database are truly comparable and compatible, and lead to reliable predictive models. The approaches taken by scientists involved in this programme are described and the various stages in the development of mathematical models summarized. It is hoped that this initiative and others being developed in the USA, Australia, Canada and other countries, will encourage a more integrated approach to food safety which will influence all stages of food production and, eventually, result in the development of an International Predictive Microbiology Database.