Premature cardiovascular disease mortality with overweight and obesity as a risk factor: estimating excess mortality in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The United States has experienced high levels of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and also has high prevalence of overweight and obesity, which increases the risk of severe infection and death from the virus. This study uses multiple cause of death data to estimate excess premature cardiovascular disease mortality in the USA in 2020 for which overweight and obesity was a risk factor. METHODS: The contribution of overweight and obesity to premature (35-74 years) cardiovascular disease mortality was measured as cardiovascular disease reported on the death certificate with one or more of diabetes, chronic kidney disease, obesity, lipidemias or hypertensive heart disease (DKOLH-CVD). Excess mortality was calculated as the difference between actual and expected age-standardised death rates. Expected deaths were estimated using negative binomial regressions of monthly deaths during 2010-19. RESULTS: Excess DKOLH-CVD mortality in March-December 2020 was 29% (95% uncertainty interval 28-31%) for males and 30% (28-32%) for females, much higher than for all causes (males 19% (18-21%), females 16% (14-17%)). Excess mortality was higher where two or more DKOLH conditions (males 40% (37-43%), females 41% (37-44%)) or obesity (males 42% (38-45%), females 47% (43-51%)) were reported. One-half of excess DKOLH-CVD mortality was reported as due to COVID-19, lower than the four-fifths of excess all-cause deaths. For home deaths, just over 10% of excess mortality for each cause classification was reported as due to COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Excess premature cardiovascular disease mortality in the USA for which overweight and obesity was a risk factor was considerably higher than for all causes, exacerbating adverse pre-pandemic trends. The contribution of COVID-19 to excess mortality appears significantly under-reported for home deaths.

Cardiovascular disease mortality based on verbal autopsy in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

Objective: To conduct a systematic review of verbal autopsy studies in low- and middle-income countries to estimate the fraction of deaths due to cardiovascular disease. Method: We searched MEDLINE®, Embase® and Scopus databases for verbal autopsy studies in low- and middle-income countries that reported deaths from cardiovascular disease. Two reviewers screened the studies, extracted data and assessed study quality. We calculated cause-specific mortality fractions for cardiovascular disease for each study, both overall and according to age, sex, geographical location and type of cardiovascular disease. Findings: We identified 42 studies for inclusion in the review. Overall, the cardiovascular disease cause-specific mortality fractions for people aged 15 years and above was 22.9%. This fraction was generally higher for males (24.7%) than females (20.9%), but the pattern varied across World Health Organization regions. The highest cardiovascular disease mortality fraction was reported in the Western Pacific Region (26.3%), followed by the South-East Asia Region (24.1%) and the African Region (12.7%). The cardiovascular disease mortality fraction was higher in urban than rural populations in all regions, except the South-East Asia Region. The mortality fraction for ischaemic heart disease (12.3%) was higher than that for stroke (8.7%). Overall, 69.4% of cardiovascular disease deaths were reported in people aged 65 years and above. Conclusion: The burden of cardiovascular disease deaths outside health-care settings in low- and middle-income countries is substantial. Increasing coverage of verbal autopsies in these countries could help fill gaps in cardiovascular disease mortality data and improve monitoring of national, regional and global health goals.

Assessing the policy utility of routine mortality statistics: a global classification of countries.

Objective: To evaluate the utility and quality of death registration data across countries. Methods: We compiled routine death and cause of death statistics data from 2015-2019 from national authorities. We estimated completeness of death registration using the Adair-Lopez empirical method. The quality of cause of death data was assessed by evaluating the assignment of usable causes of death among people younger than 80 years. We grouped data into nine policy utility categories based on data availability, registration completeness and diagnostic precision. Findings: Of an estimated 55 million global deaths in 2019, 70% of deaths were registered across 156 countries, but only 52% had medically certified causes and 42% of deaths were assigned a usable cause. In 54 countries, which are mostly high-income, there is complete and high-quality mortality data. In a further 29 countries, located across different regions, death registration is complete, but cause of death data quality remains suboptimal. Additionally, 37 countries possess functional death registration systems with cause of death data of poor to moderate quality. In 30 countries, death registration ranges from limited to nascent completeness, accompanied by poor or unavailable cause of death data. Furthermore, 38 countries lack accessible data altogether. Conclusion: By implementing more proactive death notification processes, expanding the use of digitized data collection platforms, streamlining data compilation procedures and improving data quality assessment, governments could enhance the policy utility of mortality data. Encouraging the routine application of automated verbal autopsy methods is crucial for accurately determining the causes of deaths occurring at home.

Comparative performance of national civil registration and vital statistics systems: a global assessment.

Objective: To assess the current state of the world's civil registration and vital statistics systems based on publicly available data and to propose strategic development pathways, including priority interventions, for countries at different levels of civil registration and vital statistics performance. Methods: We applied a performance assessment framework to publicly available data, using a composite indicator highly correlated with civil registration and vital statistics performance which we then adjusted for data incomparability and missing values. Findings: Globally, civil registration and vital statistics systems score on average 0.70 (0-1 scale), with substantial variations across countries and regions. Scores ranged from less than 0.50 in emerging systems to nearly 1.00 in the most developed systems. Approximately one fifth of the world's population live in the 43 countries with low system performance (< 0.477). Irrespective of system development, health sector indicators consistently scored lower than other determinants of civil registration and vital statistics performance. Conclusion: From our assessment, we provide three main recommendations for how the health sector can contribute to improving civil registration and vital statistics systems: (i) enhanced health sector engagement in birth and death notification; (ii) a more systematic approach to training cause of death diagnostics; and (iii) leadership in the implementation of verbal autopsy methods. Four different civil registration and vital statistics improvement pathways for countries at different levels of system development are proposed, that can constitute a blueprint for regional civil registration and vital statistics strengthening activities that countries can adapt and refine to suit their capabilities, resources, and particular challenges.

Global analysis of birth statistics from civil registration and vital statistics systems.

Objective: To assess civil registration and vital statistics completeness for births in World Health Organization's Member States and identify data completeness gaps. Methods: For the 194 Member States, we sourced birth registration data from the United Nations Children's Fund database of national surveys, and, where available, vital registration reports. We acquired publicly available vital statistics compiled by national authorities. We determined civil registration completeness as the percentage of living children younger than five years whose births have been reported as registered. We evaluated vital statistics completeness against the United Nations World Population Prospects' live birth estimates, and grouped countries into seven categories based on their civil registration and vital statistics completeness. Findings: Globally, civil registration completeness for births was 77%, exceeding vital statistics completeness for births at 63%. Twenty countries had limited civil registration (25% to 74% completeness) and had nascent or no vital statistics data (completeness < 25%) for births. Five countries had nascent or no civil registration and vital statistics for births. Twenty countries had functional civil registration (75% to 94% completeness) but nascent or no available vital statistics. Approximately half (96) of the countries had complete civil registration and vital statistics for births, but contributed to only 22% of global births. Conclusion: The gap in completeness between civil registration data and vital statistics for births is most pronounced in countries with lower civil registration completeness. Enhancing data transfer processes for birth registration, along with targeted investments to elevate registration rates, is crucial for yielding comprehensive fertility statistics for governmental planning.

Large Discrepancies in Dementia Mortality Reported in Vital Statistics: The Need for Improved Data to Inform Policy.

PURPOSE: There is limited understanding of the intercountry comparability of dementia mortality data. This study compares reported dementia mortality in national vital statistics between countries and over time. In countries with low dementia reporting, this study identifies other causes to which dementia may be misclassified. METHODS: Using the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database, we calculated the ratio of reported to expected (Global Burden of Disease estimated) age-standardized dementia death rates in 90 countries from 2000 to 2019. Other causes to which dementia may be misclassified were identified as having relatively high cause fractions compared with other countries. PATIENTS: No patients were involved. RESULTS: There is a large intercountry variation in reported dementia mortality rates. The ratio of reported to expected dementia mortality exceeded 100% in high-income countries but was below 50% in other super regions. In countries with low reported dementia mortality, cardiovascular diseases, ill-defined causes, and pneumonia have relatively high cause fractions and may be misclassified from dementia. DISCUSSION: Large discrepancies in dementia mortality reporting between countries, including often implausibly low reported mortality, makes comparison extremely difficult. Improved guidance for and training of certifiers and the use of multiple cause-of-death data can help strengthen the policy utility of dementia mortality data.

Is the Rise in Reported Dementia Mortality Real? Analysis of Multiple-Cause-of-Death Data for Australia and the United States.

Official statistics in Australia and the United States show large recent increases in dementia mortality rates. In this study, we assessed whether these trends are biased by an increasing tendency of medical certifiers (predominantly physicians) to report on the death certificate that dementia was a direct cause of death. Regression models of multiple-cause-of-death data in Australia (2006-2016) and the United States (2006-2017) were constructed to adjust dementia mortality rates for changes in death certification practices. Compared with official statistics, the recent increase in adjusted age-standardized dementia death rates was less than half as large in Australia and about two-thirds as large in the United States. Further adjustment for changes in reporting of dementia anywhere on the death certificate implied even lower increases in dementia mortality. Declines in reporting of cardiovascular diseases as comorbid conditions also contributed to rises in dementia mortality rates. The increasing likelihood of dementia's being reported as directly leading to death largely explains recent increases in dementia mortality rates in both countries. However, studies have found that reported dementia on death certificates remains low compared with clinical evaluations of its prevalence. Improved guidance and training for certifiers in reporting of dementia on death certificates will help standardize mortality statistics within and between countries.

Assessment of the national and subnational completeness of death registration in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Reliable and timely mortality data from a civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system are of crucial importance for generating evidence for policy and monitoring the progress towards national and global development goals. In Nepal, however, the death registration system is not used to produce mortality statistics, because it does not providing data on age at death and only reporting deaths by year of registration. This study assesses the completeness of death registration in Nepal - both the existing offline system and the newer online system - as well as the completeness of death reporting from a CRVS Survey, and assesses differences by year, sex, ecological belt, and province. METHODS: The empirical completeness method is used to estimate completeness at all ages from the offline (paper-based) registration system (2013-17), the online registration system (2017-19) and the CRVS Survey (2014-15). RESULTS: Completeness of the offline death registration system was 69% in 2017, not increasing since 2013 and being higher for males (73%) than females (65%). Completeness of online registration was only 32% in 2019, but almost double the 2017 figure. Completeness of death reporting in the CRVS Survey was 75% in 2015. The largest subnational differentials in completeness exist for the offline registration system, ranging from 90% in Gandaki to just 39% in Karnali. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement in the utility of the Nepalese death registration system for mortality statistics is dependent on continued roll-out of the online death registration system (which reports age at death and deaths by year of occurrence) throughout the country, focusing on areas with low registration, building a strong coordination mechanism among CRVS stakeholders and implementing public awareness programs about death registration.

Estimation of national and subnational all-cause mortality indicators in Nepal, 2017.

BACKGROUND: Despite the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system in Nepal operating for several decades, it has not been used to produce routine mortality statistics. Instead, mortality statistics rely on irregular surveys and censuses that primarily focus on child mortality. To fill this knowledge gap, this study estimates levels and subnational differentials in mortality across all ages in Nepal, primarily using CRVS data adjusted for incompleteness. METHODS: We analyzed death registration data (offline or paper-based) and CRVS survey reported death data, estimating the true crude death rate (CDR) and number of deaths by sex and year for each province and ecological belt. The estimated true number of deaths for 2017 was used with an extension of the empirical completeness method to estimate the adult mortality (45q15) and life expectancy at birth by sex and subnational level. Plausibility of subnational mortality estimates was assessed against poverty head count rates. RESULTS: Adult mortality in Nepal for 2017 is estimated to be 159 per 1000 for males and 116 for females, while life expectancy was estimated as 69.7 years for males and 73.9 years for females. Subnationally, male adult mortality ranges from 129 per 1000 in Madhesh to 224 in Karnali and female adult mortality from 89 per 1000 in Province 1 to 159 in Sudurpashchim. Similarly, male life expectancy is between 64.9 years in Karnali and 71.8 years in Madhesh and female male life expectancy between 69.6 years in Sudurpashchim and 77.0 years in Province 1. Mountain ecological belt and Sudurpashchim and Karnali provinces have high mortality and high poverty levels, whereas Terai and Hill ecological belts and Province 1, Madhesh, and Bagmati and Gandaki provinces have low mortality and poverty levels. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first use of CRVS system data in Nepal to estimate national and subnational mortality levels and differentials. The national results are plausible when compared with Global Burden of Disease and United Nations World Population Prospects estimates. Understanding of the reasons for inequalities in mortality in Nepal should focus on improving cause of death data and further strengthening CRVS data.

Validation studies of verbal autopsy methods: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) has emerged as an increasingly popular technique to assign cause of death in parts of the world where the majority of deaths occur without proper medical certification. The purpose of this study was to examine the key characteristics of studies that have attempted to validate VA cause of death against an established cause of death. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted by searching the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane-library, and Scopus electronic databases. Included studies contained 1) a VA component, 2) a validation component, and 3) original analysis or re-analysis. Characteristics of VA studies were extracted. A total of 527 studies were assessed, and 481 studies screened to give 66 studies selected for data extraction. RESULTS: Sixty-six studies were included from multiple countries. Ten studies used an existing database. Sixteen studies used the World Health Organization VA questionnaire and 5 studies used the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium VA questionnaire. Physician certification was used in 36 studies and computer coded methods were used in 14 studies. Thirty-seven studies used high level comparator data with detailed laboratory investigations. CONCLUSION: Most studies found VA to be an effective cause of death assignment method and compared VA cause of death to a high-quality established cause of death. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies in the methodologies of the validation studies, and many used poor quality comparison cause of death data. Future VA validation studies should adhere to consistent methodological criteria so that policymakers can easily interpret the findings to select the most appropriate VA method. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42020186886.

Generating age-specific mortality statistics from incomplete death registration data: two applications of the empirical completeness method.

BACKGROUND: The study aims to assess two approaches that apply the empirical completeness method to generate age-specific mortality statistics from incomplete death registration systems. METHODS: We use the empirical completeness method to calculate all-age death registration completeness, which is used with a model life table to generate mortality statistics and age-specific completeness using (1) the conventional method and (2) the equivalent deaths method. The results are compared with a capture-recapture (C-RC) study and three alternative mortality estimates for Brazilian states, and C-RC studies in Thailand, Oman and Vietnam, which independently estimate the level and age pattern of mortality or completeness. RESULTS: The empirical completeness method produces similar estimates of all-age completeness of registration to the C-RC studies. Compared with C-RC studies, at 15-59 years, the conventional method's estimates of mortality and completeness are more concordant, while at 60-84 years the equivalent death method's estimates are closer. Estimates of life expectancy from the two approaches each have similar concordance with the C-RC studies. For male adult mortality in Brazilian states, there is relatively strong average correlation of this study's estimates with three alternative estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The two approaches produce mortality statistics from incomplete data that are mostly concordant with C-RC studies, and can be most usefully applied to subnational populations.

Estimating causes of out-of-hospital deaths in China: application of SmartVA methods.

BACKGROUND: Most deaths in China occur at home, making it difficult to collect reliable cause of death (CoD) information. Verbal autopsy (VA) was applied using the SmartVA tool to a sample of home deaths in China to explore its feasibility as a means of improving the quality of CoD data. METHODS: The study was carried out in 22 districts in 9 provinces, located in north-east, central, and western areas of China during 2017 and 2018. Trained interviewers selected suitable respondents in each household to collect information using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) shortened and validated electronic VA questionnaire on tablets. The CoD was diagnosed from the interview data using the SmartVA-Analyze 2.0 software (Tariff 2.0). RESULTS: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) dominated the leading causes of death in all age groups and for both sexes. After redistribution of undetermined causes, stroke (24%), ischemic heart diseases (IHD) (21%), chronic respiratory diseases (11%), and lung cancer (6%) were the leading causes of death. The cause fractions for level-one cause categories and ranking of specific causes were similar between SmartVA and results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. CONCLUSION: Evidence from this large pilot study suggests that SmartVA is a feasible and plausible tool and could be a valuable tool to improve the quality and standardization of CoD information across China.

Have inequalities in completeness of death registration between states in India narrowed during two decades of civil registration system strengthening?

BACKGROUND: In India the number of registered deaths increased substantially in recent years, improving the potential of the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system to be the primary source of mortality data and providing more families of decedents with the benefits of possessing a death certificate. This study aims to identify whether inequalities in the completeness of death registration between states in India, including by sex, have narrowed during this period of CRVS system strengthening. METHODS: Data used in this study are registered deaths by state and year from 2000 to 2018 (and by sex from 2009 to 2018) reported in the Civil Registration Reports published by the Office of Registrar General of India. Completeness of death registration is calculated using the empirical completeness method. Levels and trends inequalities in completeness are measured in each state a socio-economic indicator - the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). RESULTS: Estimated completeness of death registration in India increased from 58% in 2000 to 81% in 2018. Male completeness rose from 60% in 2009 to 85% in 2018 and was much higher than female completeness, which increased from 54 to 74% in the same period. Completeness remained very low in some states, particularly from the eastern (e.g. Bihar) and north-eastern regions. However, in states from the northern region (e.g. Uttar Pradesh) completeness increased significantly from a low level. There was a narrowing of inequalities in completeness according to the SDI during the period, however large inequalities between states remain. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in completeness of death registration in India is a substantial achievement and increases the potential of the death registration system as a routine source of mortality data. Although narrowing of inequalities in completeness demonstrates that the benefits of higher levels of death registration have spread to relatively poorer states of India in recent years, the continued low completeness in some states and for females are concerning. The Indian CRVS system also needs to increase the number of registered deaths with age at death reported to improve their usability for mortality statistics.

Routine mortality surveillance to identify the cause of death pattern for out-of-hospital adult (aged 12+ years) deaths in Bangladesh: introduction of automated verbal autopsy.

BACKGROUND: In Bangladesh, a poorly functioning national system of registering deaths and determining their causes leaves the country without important information on which to inform health programming, particularly for the 85% of deaths that occur in the community. In 2017, an improved death registration system and automated verbal autopsy (VA) were introduced to 13 upazilas to assess the utility of VA as a routine source of policy-relevant information and to identify leading causes of deaths (COD) in rural Bangladesh. METHODS: Data from 22,535 VAs, collected in 12 upazilas between October 2017 and August 2019, were assigned a COD using the SmartVA Analyze 2.0 computer algorithm. The plausibility of the VA results was assessed using a series of demographic and epidemiological checks in the Verbal Autopsy Interpretation, Performance and Evaluation Resource (VIPER) software tool. RESULTS: Completeness of community death reporting was 65%. The vast majority (85%) of adult deaths were due to non-communicable diseases, with ischemic heart disease, stroke and chronic respiratory disease comprising about 60% alone. Leading COD were broadly consistent with Global Burden of Disease study estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Routine VA collection using automated methods is feasible, can produce plausible results and provides critical information on community COD in Bangladesh. Routine VA and VIPER have potential application to countries with weak death registration systems.

The role of overweight and obesity in adverse cardiovascular disease mortality trends: an analysis of multiple cause of death data from Australia and the USA.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, there have been adverse trends in premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates (35-74 years) in the USA and Australia. Following long-term declines, rates in the USA are now increasing while falls in Australia have slowed rapidly. These two countries also have the highest adult obesity prevalence of high-income countries. This study investigates the role of overweight and obesity in their recent CVD mortality trends by using multiple cause of death (MCOD) data-direct individual-level evidence from death certificates-and linking the findings to cohort lifetime obesity prevalence. METHODS: We identified overweight- and obesity-related mortality as any CVD reported on the death certificate (CVD MCOD) with one or more of diabetes, chronic kidney disease, obesity, lipidemias or hypertensive heart disease (DKOLH-CVD), causes strongly associated with overweight and obesity. DKOLH-CVD comprises 50% of US and 40% of Australian CVD MCOD mortality. Trends in premature age-standardized death rates were compared between DKOLH-CVD and other CVD MCOD deaths (non-DKOLH-CVD). Deaths from 2000 to 2017 in the USA and 2006-2016 in Australia were analyzed. Trends in in age-specific DKOLH-CVD death rates were related to cohort relative lifetime obesity prevalence. RESULTS: Each country's DKOLH-CVD mortality rate rose by 3% per annum in the most recent year, but previous declines had reversed more rapidly in Australia. Non-DKOLH-CVD mortality in the USA increased in 2017 after declining strongly in the early 2000s, but in Australia it has continued declining in stark contrast to DKOLH-CVD. There were larger increases in DKOLH-CVD mortality rates at successively younger ages, strongly related with higher relative lifetime obesity prevalence in younger cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in DKOLH-CVD mortality in each country suggests that overweight and obesity has likely been a key driver of the recent slowdown or reversal of CVD mortality decline in both countries. The larger recent increases in DKOLH-CVD mortality and higher lifetime obesity prevalence in younger age groups are very concerning and are likely to adversely impact CVD mortality trends and hence life expectancy in future. MCOD data is a valuable but underutilized source of data to track important mortality trends.

Addressing critical knowledge and capacity gaps to sustain CRVS system development.

BACKGROUND: Improving civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems requires strengthening the capacity of the CRVS workforce. The improvement of data collection and diagnostic practices must be accompanied by efforts to ensure that the workforce has the skills and knowledge to assess the quality of, and analyse, CRVS data using demographic and epidemiological techniques. While longer-term measures to improve data collection practices must continue to be implemented, it is important to build capacity in the cautious use of imperfect data. However, a lack of training programmes, guidelines and tools make capacity shortages a common issue in CRVS systems. As such, any strategy to build capacity should be underpinned by (1) a repository of knowledge and body of evidence on CRVS, and (2) targeted strategies to train the CRVS workforce. MAIN TEXT: During the 4 years of the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative at the University of Melbourne, an extensive repository of knowledge and practical tools to support CRVS system improvements was developed for use by various audiences and stakeholders (the 'CRVS Knowledge Gateway'). Complementing this has been a targeted strategy to build CRVS capacity in countries that comprised two approaches - in-country or regional training and a visiting Fellowship Program. These approaches address the need to build competence in countries to collect, analyse and effectively use good quality birth and death data, and a longer-term need to ensure that local staff in countries possess the comprehensive knowledge of CRVS strategies and practices necessary to ensure sustainable CRVS development. CONCLUSION: The Knowledge Gateway is a dynamic, useful and long-lasting repository of CRVS knowledge for countries and development partners to use to formulate and evaluate CRVS development strategies. Capacity-building through in-country or regional training and the University of Melbourne D4H Fellowship Program will ensure that CRVS capacity and knowledge is developed and maintained, facilitating improvements in CRVS data systems that can be used by policymakers to support better decision-making in health.

Measuring the completeness of death registration in 2844 Chinese counties in 2018.

BACKGROUND: Death registration completeness has never been assessed at the county level in China. Such analyses would provide critical intelligence to monitor the performance of the vital registration system and yield adjustment factors to correct death registration data, thereby increasing their policy utility. METHODS: We estimated the completeness of death registration for 31 provinces and 2844 counties of China in 2018 based on death data from the China Cause of Death Reporting System (CDRS) by using the empirical completeness method. We computed the root mean square difference (RMSD) of county-level completeness compared with provincial-level completeness to study intra-provincial variations. A two-level (province and county) logistic regression model was fitted to explore the association between county-level registration completeness and a set of covariates reflecting socioeconomic status, healthcare quality, and specific strategies and regulations designed to improve registration. RESULTS: In 2018, the overall death registration completeness for the CDRS in China was 74.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 66.2-80.4), with very little difference for males and females. Geographical differences in completeness were higher across counties than across provinces. The county-level completeness ranged from 2.4% (95% UI 1.0-5.0%) in Burang County, Tibet, to 100.0% (95% UI 99.9-100.0%) in Guandu District, Yunnan. The coastal provinces of Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Fujian, with higher overall completeness, contained counties with low completeness; conversely, the underdeveloped provinces of Guangxi and Guizhou, with lower overall completeness, included some counties with high completeness. GDP, education, population density, minority population, healthcare access, and registration strategies were important drivers of the geographical differences in registration completeness. CONCLUSIONS: There are marked inequalities in registration completeness at the county level and within provinces in China. The socioeconomic condition, the implementation of specific registration-enhancing initiatives, and the availability and quality of medical care were the primary drivers of the observed geographical variation. A more strategic approach, with more research, is required to identify the main reasons for death under-reporting, especially in the poorer performing counties, to guide remedial action.

Where there is no hospital: improving the notification of community deaths.

BACKGROUND: Globally, an estimated two-thirds of all deaths occur in the community, the majority of which are not attended by a physician and remain unregistered. Identifying and registering these deaths in civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems, and ascertaining the cause of death, is thus a critical challenge to ensure that policy benefits from reliable evidence on mortality levels and patterns in populations. In contrast to traditional processes for registration, death notification can be faster and more efficient at informing responsible government agencies about the event and at triggering a verbal autopsy for ascertaining cause of death. Thus, innovative approaches to death notification, tailored to suit the setting, can improve the availability and quality of information on community deaths in CRVS systems. IMPROVING THE NOTIFICATION OF COMMUNITY DEATHS: Here, we present case studies in four countries (Bangladesh, Colombia, Myanmar and Papua New Guinea) that were part of the initial phases of the Bloomberg Data for Health Initiative at the University of Melbourne, each of which faces unique challenges to community death registration. The approaches taken promote improved notification of community deaths through a combination of interventions, including integration with the health sector, using various notifying agents and methods, and the application of information and communication technologies. One key factor for success has been the smoothing of processes linking notification, registration and initiation of a verbal autopsy interview. The processes implemented champion more active notification systems in relation to the passive systems commonly in place in these countries. CONCLUSIONS: The case studies demonstrate the significant potential for improving death reporting through the implementation of notification practices tailored to a country's specific circumstances, including geography, cultural factors, structure of the existing CRVS system, and available human, information and communication technology resources. Strategic deployment of some, or all, of these innovations can result in rapid improvements to death notification systems and should be trialled in other settings.

Estimating completeness of national and subnational death reporting in Brazil: application of record linkage methods.

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, both the Civil Registry (CR) and Ministry of Health (MoH) Mortality Information System (SIM) are sources of routine mortality data, but neither is 100% complete. Deaths from these two sources can be linked to facilitate estimation of completeness of mortality reporting and measurement of adjusted mortality indicators using generalized linear modeling (GLM). METHODS: The 2015 and 2016 CR and SIM data were linked using deterministic methods. GLM with covariates of the deceased's sex, age, state of residence, cause of death and place of death, and municipality-level education decile and population density decile, was used to estimate total deaths and completeness nationally, subnationally and by population sub-group, and to identify the characteristics of unreported deaths. The empirical completeness method and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates were comparators at the national and state level. RESULTS: Completeness was 98% for SIM and 95% for CR. The vast majority of deaths in Brazil were captured by either system and 94% were reported by both sources. For each source, completeness was lowest in the north. SIM completeness was consistently high across all sub-groups while CR completeness was lowest for deaths at younger ages, outside facilities, and in the lowest deciles of municipality education and population density. There was no clear municipality-level relationship in SIM and CR completeness, suggesting minimal dependence between sources. The empirical completeness method model 1 and GBD completeness estimates were each, on average, less than three percentage points different from GLM estimates at the state level. Life expectancy was lowest in the northeast and 7.5 years higher in females than males. CONCLUSIONS: GLM using socio-economic and demographic covariates is a valuable tool to accurately estimate completeness from linked data sources. Close scrutiny of the quality of variables used to link deaths, targeted identification of unreported deaths in poorer, northern states, and closer coordination of the two systems will help Brazil achieve 100% death reporting completeness. The results also confirm the validity of the empirical completeness method.

On the estimation of population cause-specific mortality fractions from in-hospital deaths.

BACKGROUND: Almost all countries without complete vital registration systems have data on deaths collected by hospitals. However, these data have not been widely used to estimate cause of death (COD) patterns in populations because only a non-representative fraction of people in these countries die in health facilities. Methods that can exploit hospital mortality statistics to reliably estimate community COD patterns are required to strengthen the evidence base for disease and injury control programs. We propose a method that weights hospital-certified causes by the probability of death to estimate population cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs). METHODS: We used an established verbal autopsy instrument (VAI) to collect data from hospital catchment areas in Chandpur and Comilla Districts, Bangladesh, and Bohol province, the Philippines, between 2011 and 2014, along with demographic covariates for each death. Hospital medical certificates of cause of death (death certificates) were collected and mapped to the corresponding cause categories of the VAI. Tariff 2.0 was used to assign a COD for community deaths. Logistic regression models were created for broad causes in each country to calculate the probability of in-hospital death, given a set of covariate values. The reweighted CSMFs for deaths in the hospital catchment population, represented by each hospital death, were calculated from the corresponding regression models. RESULTS: We collected data on 4228 adult deaths in the Philippines and 3725 deaths in Bangladesh. Short time to hospital and education were consistently associated with in-hospital death in the Philippines and absence of a disability was consistently associated with in-hospital death in Bangladesh. Non-communicable diseases (excluding stroke) and stroke were the leading causes of death in both the Philippines (33.9%, 19.1%) and Bangladesh (46.1%, 21.1%) according to the reweighted method. The reweighted method generally estimated CSMFs that fell between those derived from hospitals and those diagnosed by Tariff 2.0. CONCLUSIONS: Statistical methods can be used to derive estimates of cause-specific probability of death in-hospital for Bangladesh and the Philippines to generate population CSMFs. In regions where hospital death certification is of reasonable quality and routine verbal autopsy is not applied, these estimates could be applied to generate cost-effective and robust CSMFs for the population.