[Excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages in Latin America and the CaribbeanImposto especial de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas na América Latina e no Caribe]. / Impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en América Latina y el Caribe.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the design of excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Latin America and the Caribbean and assess opportunities to increase their impact on SSB consumption and health. METHODS: A comprehensive search and review of the legislation in effect as of March 2019, collected through existing Pan American Health Organization and World Health Organization monitoring tools, secondary sources, and surveying ministries of finance. The analysis focused on the type of products taxed, and the structure and base of these excise taxes. RESULTS: Out of the 33 countries analyzed, 21 apply excise taxes on SSBs. Seven countries also apply excise taxes on bottled water and at least four include sugar-sweetened milk drinks. Ten of these excise taxes are ad valorem with some tax bases set early in the value chain, seven are amount-specific, and four have either a combined or mixed structure. Three countries apply excise taxes based on sugar concentration. CONCLUSIONS: While the number of countries applying excise taxes on SSBs is promising, there is great heterogeneity in design in terms of structure, tax base, and products taxed. Existing excise taxes could be further leveraged to improve their impact on SSB consumption and health by including all categories of SSBs, excluding bottled water, and relying more on amount-specific taxes regularly adjusted for inflation and possibly based on sugar concentration. All countries would benefit from additional guidance. Future research should aim to address this gap.

OBJETIVO: Caracterizar o modelo dos impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas na América Latina e no Caribe e avaliar oportunidades para aumentar o impacto desses impostos no consumo de bebidas açucaradas e na saúde. MÉTODOS: Realizou-se uma pesquisa ampla e a análise de legislações vigentes em março de 2019, com informações obtidas por meio de instrumentos de monitoramento da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) e da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) já existentes, fontes secundárias e levantamento junto aos ministérios da Fazenda. A análise centrou-se no tipo de produtos tributados e na estrutura e base desses impostos especiais de consumo. RESULTADOS: Dos 33 países analisados, 21 aplicam impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas. Em sete países os impostos especiais de consumo incidem também sobre água engarrafada e, em pelo menos quatro, incluem bebidas lácteas açucaradas. Dez desses tributos especiais são ad valorem com algumas bases tributárias estabelecidas no início da cadeia de valor, sete são de tipo específico e quatro têm uma estrutura combinada ou mista. Em três países os impostos especiais são estabelecidos com base na concentração de açúcares do produto. CONCLUSÕES: Apesar do número promissor de países com impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas, verifica-se grande heterogeneidade nos modelos de tributação em termos de estrutura, base tributária e produtos tributados. Os impostos especiais de consumo vigentes poderiam ser mais bem aproveitados para aumentar o impacto no consumo de bebidas açucaradas e na saúde: incluir todas as categorias de bebidas açucaradas, excluir água engarrafada e recorrer mais a impostos de tipo específico com a correção periódica pela inflação e, possivelmente, com base na concentração de açúcares do produto. Todos os países se beneficiariam em receber mais orientação. Pesquisas futuras devem ter como objetivo abordar essa lacuna.

Excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages in Latin America and the Caribbean.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the design of excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Latin America and the Caribbean and assess opportunities to increase their impact on SSB consumption and health. METHODS: A comprehensive search and review of the legislation in effect as of March 2019, collected through existing Pan American Health Organization and World Health Organization monitoring tools, secondary sources, and surveying ministries of finance. The analysis focused on the type of products taxed, and the structure and base of these excise taxes. RESULTS: Out of the 33 countries analyzed, 21 apply excise taxes on SSBs. Seven countries also apply excise taxes on bottled water and at least four include sugar-sweetened milk drinks. Ten of these excise taxes are ad valorem with some tax bases set early in the value chain, seven are amount-specific, and four have either a combined or mixed structure. Three countries apply excise taxes based on sugar concentration. CONCLUSIONS: While the number of countries applying excise taxes on SSBs is promising, there is great heterogeneity in design in terms of structure, tax base, and products taxed. Existing excise taxes could be further leveraged to improve their impact on SSB consumption and health by including all categories of SSBs, excluding bottled water, and relying more on amount-specific taxes regularly adjusted for inflation and possibly based on sugar concentration. All countries would benefit from additional guidance. Future research should aim to address this gap.

Evidence of a health risk 'signalling effect' following the introduction of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax.

Consuming sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been associated with increased rates of obesity and type 2 diabetes, making SSBs an increasingly popular target for taxation. In addition to changing prices, the introduction of an SSB tax may convey information about the health risks of SSBs (a signalling effect). If SSB taxation operates in part by producing a health risk signal, there may be important opportunities to amplify this effect. Our aim was to assess whether there is evidence of a risk signalling effect following the introduction of the Barbados SSB tax. We used process tracing to assess the existence of a signalling effect around sodas and sugar-sweetened juices (juice drinks). We used three data sources: 611 archived transcripts of local television news, 30 interviews with members of the public, and electronic point of sales data (46 months) from a major grocery store chain. We used directed content analysis to assess the qualitative data and an interrupted time series analysis to assess the quantitative data. We found evidence consistent with a risk signalling effect following the introduction of the SSB tax for sodas but not for juice drinks. Consistent with risk signalling theory, the findings suggest that consumers were aware of the tax, believed in a health rationale for the tax, understood that sodas were taxed and perceived that sodas and juice drinks were unhealthy. However consumers appear not to have understood that juice drinks were taxed, potentially reducing tax effectiveness from a health perspective. In addition, the tax may have incentivised companies to increase advertising around juice drinks (undermining any signalling effect) and to introduce low-cost SSB product lines. Policymakers can maximize the impact of risk signals by being clear about the definition of taxed SSBs, emphasizing the health rationale for introducing such a policy, and introducing co-interventions (e.g. marketing restrictions) that reduce opportunities for industry countersignals. These actions may amplify the impact of an SSB tax.

Assessing the impact of the Barbados sugar-sweetened beverage tax on beverage sales: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization has advocated for sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes as part of a broader non-communicable disease prevention strategy, and these taxes have been recently introduced in a wide range of settings. However, much is still unknown about how SSB taxes operate in various contexts and as a result of different tax designs. In 2015, the Government of Barbados implemented a 10% ad valorem (value-based) tax on SSBs. It has been hypothesized that this tax structure may inadvertently encourage consumers to switch to cheaper sugary drinks. We aimed to assess whether and to what extent there has been a change in sales of SSBs following implementation of the SSB tax. METHODS: We used electronic point of sale data from a major grocery store chain and applied an interrupted time series (ITS) design to assess grocery store SSB and non-SSB sales from January 2013 to October 2016. We controlled for the underlying time trend, seasonality, inflation, tourism and holidays. We conducted sensitivity analyses using a cross-country control (Trinidad and Tobago) and a within-country control (vinegar). We included a post-hoc stratification by price tertile to assess the extent to which consumers may switch to cheaper sugary drinks. RESULTS: We found that average weekly sales of SSBs decreased by 4.3% (95%CI 3.6 to 4.9%) compared to expected sales without a tax, primarily driven by a decrease in carbonated SSBs sales of 3.6% (95%CI 2.9 to 4.4%). Sales of non-SSBs increased by 5.2% (95%CI 4.5 to 5.9%), with bottled water sales increasing by an average of 7.5% (95%CI 6.5 to 8.3%). The sensitivity analyses were consistent with the uncontrolled results. After stratifying by price, we found evidence of substitution to cheaper SSBs. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that the Barbados SSB tax was associated with decreased sales of SSBs in a major grocery store chain after controlling for underlying trends. This finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. We found evidence to suggest that consumers may have changed their behaviour in response to the tax by purchasing cheaper sugary drinks, in addition to substituting to untaxed products. This has important implications for the design of future SSB taxes.

Performance of Flexible Chemoresistive Gas Sensors after Having Undergone Automated Bending Tests.

Many sensors are developed over flexible substrates to be used as wearables, which does not guarantee that they will actually withstand being bent. This work evaluates the gas sensing performance of metal oxide devices of three different types, before and after having undergone automated, repetitive bending tests. These tests were aimed at demonstrating that the fabricated sensors were actually flexible, which cannot be taken for granted beforehand. The active layer in these sensors consisted of WO3 nanowires (NWs) grown directly over a Kapton foil by means of the aerosol-assisted chemical vapor deposition. Their response to different H2 concentrations was measured at first. Then, they were cyclically bent, and finally, their response to H2 was measured again. Sensors based on pristine WO3-NWs over Ag electrodes and on Pd-decorated NWs over Au electrodes maintained their performance after having been bent. Ag electrodes covered with Pd-decorated NWs became fragile and lost their usefulness. To summarize, two different types of truly flexible metal oxide gas sensor were fabricated, whereas a third one was not flexible, despite being grown over a flexible substrate following the same method. Finally, we recommend that one standard bending test procedure should be established to clearly determine the flexibility of a sensor considering its intended application.

Regulatory measures to fight obesity in Small Island Developing States of the Caribbean and Pacific, 2015 - 2017.

This report examines the experiences of Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean- Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, and in the Pacific- Fiji, Nauru, and Tonga with specific governmental regulatory measures to reduce the risk of obesity and associated diet-related chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), as well as the obstacles and opportunities encountered. Guided by the diet-related indicators of the World Health Organization (WHO) Noncommunicable Diseases Progress Monitor 2017, the authors reviewed legislation, country reports, articles, and the databases of WHO and the World Trade Organization to identify relevant regulatory measures and to establish the extent of implementation in the selected countries. Obesity prevalence ranged from 25.9% in Dominica to 41.1% in Tonga. The principal diet-related measures implemented by the selected countries were fiscal measures, such as sugar-sweetened beverage taxes and import duties to encourage greater consumption of healthy foods. Governmental action was weakest in the area of restrictions on marketing of unhealthy foods. If they are to reduce their current high rates of obesity and associated NCDs, Caribbean and Pacific states need to intensify implementation of diet-related regulatory measures, particularly in the area of marketing of unhealthy foods and beverages to children. Key implementation challenges include financial and staffing constraints and the need for increased political will to counter industry opposition and to allocate adequate financial resources to keep advancing this agenda.

Este es un informe sobre las experiencias de Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, Fiji, Nauru y Tonga con medidas gubernamentales regulatorias específicas dirigidas a reducir el riesgo de obesidad y enfermedades no transmisibles relacionadas con la dieta y resaltar los obstáculos y oportunidades relacionados con ellas. Guiados por los indicadores relacionados con la dieta establecidos en el Monitoreo de Avances en materia de las Enfermedades no Transmisibles 2017 de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) se revisó la legislación, los informes de los países, artículos, y las bases de datos de la OMS y la Organización Mundial de Comercio para identificar las medidas regulatorias pertinentes y establecer el alcance de su implementación en los países seleccionados.La prevalencia de obesidad osciló entre el 25,9% en Dominica y el 41,1% en Tonga. Las principales medidas relacionadas con la dieta implementadas por los países seleccionados fueron medidas fiscales, como los impuestos a las bebidas azucaradas y los aranceles de importación, para alentar un mayor consumo de alimentos saludables. La acción gubernamental fue más débil en el área de restricciones en el marketing de alimentos poco saludables. Para reducir las actuales altas tasas de obesidad y enfermedades no transmisibles asociadas, los estados del Caribe y del Pacífico deben intensificar la implementación de medidas regulatorias relacionadas con la dieta, en particular en el área del marketing de alimentos y bebidas poco saludables para los niños. Los desafíos clave de la implementación incluyen limitaciones financieras y de personal y la necesidad de una mayor voluntad política para contrarrestar la oposición de la industria y asignar recursos financieros adecuados para seguir avanzando en esta agenda.

Este é um relatório sobre as experiências de Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, Fiji, Nauru e Tonga com medidas específicas reguladoras do governo destinadas a reduzir o risco de obesidade e doenças não transmissíveis associadas (DNTs) relacionados à dieta e destacar os obstáculos e oportunidades que estimulam um maior uso dessas medidas. Guiados pelos indicadores relacionados à dieta estabelecido no Monitoramento de Progresso das Doenças Não Transmissíveis 2017 da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS), revisamos a legislação, os relatórios dos países, artigos, e as bases do dados da OMS e da Organização Mundial do Comércio para identificar as medidas reguladoras relevantes, visando reduzir o risco de obesidade e as DNTs associadas, e estabelecer o escopo de sua implementação nos países selecionados.A prevalência de obesidade variou de 25,9% na Dominica a 41,1% em Tonga. As principais medidas relacionadas à dieta implementadas pelos países selecionados foram medidas fiscais, como impostos sobre bebidas açucaradas e tarifas de importação, para incentivar maior consumo de alimentos saudáveis. A ação do governo foi mais fraca na área de restrições à comercialização de alimentos não saudáveis. Para reduzir as atuais altas taxas de obesidade e doenças não transmissíveis associadas, os países do Caribe e do Pacífico devem intensificar a implementação de medidas reguladoras relacionadas à dieta, particularmente na área da comercialização de alimentos e bebidas não saudáveis para crianças. Os principais desafios da implementação incluem restrições financeiras e de pessoal e a necessidade de maior vontade política para combater a oposição da indústria e alocar recursos financeiros adequados para continuar avançando nesta agenda.

Flexible Gas Sensors Employing Octahedral Indium Oxide Films.

Indium oxide octahedral nanopowders were obtained from an ionic precursor compound after an oxidation process conducted under a low-oxygen atmosphere. This method was found to produce contamination-free indium oxide nanomaterial with very similar morphological and crystalline properties to the one produced by vapor-phase transport, but at significantly lower temperatures and higher yield. The as-synthesized indium oxide was mixed to an organic vehicle and microdrop deposited to form a film bridging the interdigitated silver electrodes patterned on top of a flexible, polyimide (Kapton®), substrate. The gas sensing properties of the flexible chemoresistors towards ammonia vapors, hydrogen, and nitrogen dioxide were investigated. It was found that these sensors were remarkably sensitive to nitrogen dioxide at a low operating temperature of 150 °C. These results are consistent with the performance of vapor-phase transport synthesized indium oxide octahedra sensors on rigid, ceramic substrates. Therefore, the results presented here pave the way for the mass production of inexpensive gas sensors onto flexible substrates via additive manufacturing.

Trends in beverage prices following the introduction of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Barbados.

A 10% excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) was implemented in Barbados in September 2015. A national evaluation has been established to assess the impact of the tax. We present a descriptive analysis of initial price changes following implementation of the SSB tax using price data provided by a major supermarket chain in Barbados over the period 2014-2016. We summarize trends in price changes for SSBs and non-SSBs before and after the tax using year-on-year mean price per liter. We find that prior to the tax, the year-on-year growth of SSB and non-SSB prices was very similar (approximately 1%). During the quarter in which the tax was implemented, the trends diverged, with SSB price growth increasing to 3% and that of non-SSBs decreasing slightly. The growth of SSB prices outpaced non-SSBs prices in each quarter thereafter, reaching 5.9% compared to <1% for non-SSBs. Future analyses will assess the trends in prices of SSBs and non-SSBs over a longer period and will integrate price data from additional sources to assess heterogeneity of post-tax price changes. A continued examination of the impact of the SSB tax in Barbados will expand the evidence base available to policymakers worldwide in considering SSB taxes as a lever for reducing the consumption of added sugar at the population level.

Social determinants of breast cancer in the Caribbean: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths among women in the Caribbean and accounts for >1 million disability adjusted life years. Little is known about the social inequalities of this disease in the Caribbean. In support of the Rio Political Declaration on addressing health inequities, this article presents a systematic review of evidence on the distribution, by social determinants, of breast cancer risk factors, frequency, and adverse outcomes in Caribbean women. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, SciELO, CINAHL, CUMED, LILACS, and IBECS were searched for observational studies reporting associations between social determinants and breast cancer risk factors, frequency, or outcomes. Based on the PROGRESS-plus checklist, we considered 8 social determinant groups for 14 breast cancer endpoints, which totalled to 189 possible ways ('relationship groups') to explore the role of social determinants on breast cancer. Studies with >50 participants conducted in Caribbean territories between 2004 and 2014 were eligible for inclusion. The review was conducted according to STROBE and PRISMA guidelines and results were planned as a narrative synthesis, with meta-analysis if possible. RESULTS: Thirty-four articles were included from 5,190 screened citations. From these included studies, 75 inequality relationships were reported examining 30 distinct relationship groups, leaving 84% of relationship groups unexplored. Most inequality relationships were reported for risk factors, particularly alcohol and overweight/obesity which generally showed a positive relationship with indicators of lower socioeconomic position. Evidence for breast cancer frequency and outcomes was scarce. Unmarried women tended to have a higher likelihood of being diagnosed with breast cancer when compared to married women. While no association was observed between breast cancer frequency and ethnicity, mortality from breast cancer was shown to be slightly higher among Asian-Indian compared to African-descent populations in Trinidad (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.4) and Guyana (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6). CONCLUSION: Study quantity, quality, and variability in outcomes and reporting limited the synthesis of evidence on the role of social determinants on breast cancer in the Caribbean. This report represents important current evidence on the region, and can guide future research priorities for better describing and understanding of Caribbean breast cancer inequalities.

Barriers and facilitators to physical activity amongst overweight and obese women in an Afro-Caribbean population: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of obese women is nearly twice the proportion of obese men in Barbados, and physical inactivity may be a partial determinant. Using qualitative interviews and 'semi-structured' participant observation, the aim of this study was to identify modifiable barriers to physical activity and to explore the factors that facilitate physical activity amongst overweight and obese women in this low-resourced setting. METHODS: Seventeen women aged 25 to 35 years with a BMI ≥25, purposefully sampled from a population-based cross-sectional study conducted in Barbados, were recruited in 2014 to participate in in-depth semi-structured interviews. Twelve of these women participated in one or more additional participant observation sessions in which the researcher joined and observed a routine activity chosen by the participant. More than 50 hours of participant observation data collection were accumulated and documented in field notes. Thematic content analysis was performed on transcribed interviews and field notes using the software Dedoose. RESULTS: Social, structural and individual barriers to physical activity were identified. Social factors related to gender norms and expectations. Women tended to be active with their female friends rather than partners or male peers, and reported peer support but also alienation. Being active also competed with family responsibilities and expectations. Structural barriers included few opportunities for active commuting, limited indoor space for exercise in the home, and low perceived access to convenient and affordable exercise classes. Several successful strategies associated with sustained activity were observed, including walking and highly social, low-cost exercise groups. Individual barriers related to healthy living strategies included perceptions about chronic disease and viewing physical activity as a possible strategy for desired weight loss but less effective than dieting. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to understand why women face barriers to physical activity, particularly in low-resourced settings, and to investigate how this could be addressed. This study highlights the role that gender norms and health beliefs play in shaping experiences of physical activity. In addition, structural barriers reflect a mix of resource-scarce and resource-rich factors which are likely to be seen in a wide variety of developing contexts.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. METHODS: We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. FINDINGS: In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. INTERPRETATION: Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). METHODS: Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. FINDINGS: Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION: Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS: We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS: Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION: Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates of neonatal morbidities and disabilities at regional and global levels for 2010: introduction, methods overview, and relevant findings from the Global Burden of Disease study.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal mortality and morbidity are increasingly recognized as important globally, but detailed estimates of neonatal morbidity from conditions and long-term consequences are yet to be published. METHODS: We describe the general methods for systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and modeling used in this supplement, highlighting differences from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD2010) inputs and methods. For five conditions (preterm birth, retinopathy of prematurity, intrapartum-related conditions, neonatal infections, and neonatal jaundice), a standard three-step compartmental model was applied to estimate--by region, for 2010--the numbers of (i) affected births by sex, (ii) postneonatal survivors, and (iii) impaired postneonatal survivors. For conditions included in GBD2010 analyses (preterm birth and intrapartum-related conditions), impairment at all ages was estimated, and disability weights were applied to estimate years lived with disability (YLD) and summed with years of life lost (YLL) to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS: GBD2010 estimated neonatal conditions (preterm birth, intrapartum-related, neonatal sepsis, and "other neonatal") to be responsible for 202 million DALYs or 8.1% (7.3-9.0%) of the worldwide total. Mortality contributed 95% of the DALYs, and the estimated 26% reduction in neonatal condition DALYs since 1990 is primarily due to a 44% reduction in neonatal mortality rate due to these conditions, counterbalanced by increased numbers of babies born (17%). Impairment following neonatal conditions remained stable globally and is therefore relatively more important, especially in high- and middle-income countries. Crucial data gaps were identified. CONCLUSION: These results confirm neonatal conditions as a significant burden, reemphasizing the need to reduce deaths further, to count the linked 2.6 million stillbirths, and to better measure and address their long-term effects.

A systematic scoping review evaluating sugar-sweetened beverage taxation from a systems perspective.

Systems thinking can reveal surprising, counterintuitive or unintended reactions to population health interventions (PHIs), yet this lens has rarely been applied to sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation. Using a systematic scoping review approach, we identified 329 papers concerning SSB taxation, of which 45 considered influences and impacts of SSB taxation jointly, involving methodological approaches that may prove promising for operationalizing a systems informed approach to PHI evaluation. Influences and impacts concerning SSB taxation may be cyclically linked, and studies that consider both enable us to identify implications beyond a predicted linear effect. Only three studies explicitly used systems thinking informed methods. Finally, we developed an illustrative, feedback-oriented conceptual framework, emphasizing the processes that could result in an SSB tax being increased, maintained, eroded or repealed over time. Such a framework could be used to synthesize evidence from non-systems informed evaluations, leading to novel research questions and further policy development.

Comparing taxes as a percentage of sugar-sweetened beverage prices in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Background: Excise taxes can be used to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), an important preventable risk factor for noncommunicable diseases. This study aimed to compare novel standardized indicators of the level of taxes applied on SSBs as a percentage of the price across beverage categories in Latin America and the Caribbean. Methods: We used a method developed by the Pan American Health Organization and adapted from the World Health Organization's tobacco tax share. The analysis focused on the most sold brand of five categories of non-alcoholic beverages. Data were collected by surveying ministries of finance and reviewing tax legislation in effect as of March 2019. Findings: Of the 27 countries analyzed, 17 applied excise taxes on SSBs. Of these, median excise taxes represented the highest share of the price for large sugar-sweetened carbonated drinks (6·5%) and the lowest for energy drinks (2·3%). In countries where excise taxes were applied on bottled waters, tax incidence exceeded the one applied on most SSBs. Overall, excise tax shares were higher in Latin America than in the Caribbean. Including all other indirect taxes (e.g., value added tax), median total tax shares were between 12·8% and 17·5%. At least two countries earmarked part of SSB excise tax revenues for health purposes. Interpretation: Excise tax levels are generally low in the region. From a public health perspective, tax rates could be increased, and tax designs improved (e.g., excluding bottled waters). The method describe here provides a feasible and informative way to monitor SSB taxation and could be replicated in other regions and over time. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies through the Global Health Advocacy Incubator.

Using nutritional survey data to inform the design of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes in low-resource contexts: a cross-sectional analysis based on data from an adult Caribbean population.

OBJECTIVE: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes have been implemented widely. We aimed to use a pre-existing nutritional survey data to inform SSB tax design by assessing: (1) baseline consumption of SSBs and SSB-derived free sugars, (2) the percentage of SSB-derived free sugars that would be covered by a tax and (3) the extent to which a tax would differentiate between high-sugar SSBs and low-sugar SSBs. We evaluated these three considerations using pre-existing nutritional survey data in a developing economy setting. METHODS: We used data from a nationally representative cross-sectional survey in Barbados (2012-2013, prior to SSB tax implementation). Data were available on 334 adults (25-64 years) who completed two non-consecutive 24-hour dietary recalls. We estimated the prevalence of SSB consumption and its contribution to total energy intake, overall and stratified by taxable status. We assessed the percentage of SSB-derived free sugars subject to the tax and identified the consumption-weighted sugar concentration of SSBs, stratified by taxable status. FINDINGS: Accounting for sampling probability, 88.8% of adults (95% CI 85.1 to 92.5) reported SSB consumption, with a geometric mean of 2.4 servings/day (±2 SD, 0.6, 9.2) among SSB consumers. Sixty percent (95% CI 54.6 to 65.4) of SSB-derived free sugars would be subject to the tax. The tax did not clearly differentiate between high-sugar beverages and low-sugar beverages. CONCLUSION: Given high SSB consumption, targeting SSBs was a sensible strategy in this setting. A substantial percentage of free sugars from SSBs were not covered by the tax, reducing possible health benefits. The considerations proposed here may help policymakers to design more effective SSB taxes.

Excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages in Latin America and the Caribbean / Impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en América Latina y el Caribe / Imposto especial de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas na América Latina e no Caribe

ABSTRACT Objective. To characterize the design of excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Latin America and the Caribbean and assess opportunities to increase their impact on SSB consumption and health. Methods. A comprehensive search and review of the legislation in effect as of March 2019, collected through existing Pan American Health Organization and World Health Organization monitoring tools, secondary sources, and surveying ministries of finance. The analysis focused on the type of products taxed, and the structure and base of these excise taxes. Results. Out of the 33 countries analyzed, 21 apply excise taxes on SSBs. Seven countries also apply excise taxes on bottled water and at least four include sugar-sweetened milk drinks. Ten of these excise taxes are ad valorem with some tax bases set early in the value chain, seven are amount-specific, and four have either a combined or mixed structure. Three countries apply excise taxes based on sugar concentration. Conclusions. While the number of countries applying excise taxes on SSBs is promising, there is great heterogeneity in design in terms of structure, tax base, and products taxed. Existing excise taxes could be further leveraged to improve their impact on SSB consumption and health by including all categories of SSBs, excluding bottled water, and relying more on amount-specific taxes regularly adjusted for inflation and possibly based on sugar concentration. All countries would benefit from additional guidance. Future research should aim to address this gap.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Caracterizar el diseño de los impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en América Latina y el Caribe, y evaluar las oportunidades de aumentar su impacto en el consumo y la salud. Métodos. Se llevó a cabo una búsqueda y una evaluación exhaustivas de legislaciones vigentes a marzo del 2019, recopilada mediante las herramientas de seguimiento ya existentes de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud y de la Organización Mundial de la Salud, fuentes secundarias, así como mediante una encuesta a ministerios de finanzas. El análisis se centró en el tipo de productos gravados y la estructura y la base de estos impuestos selectivos. Resultados. De los 33 países evaluados, en 21 se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas. En siete países también se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo de agua embotellada y en al menos cuatro, se incluyen las bebidas lácteas azucaradas. Diez de estos impuestos selectivos al consumo son de tipo ad valorem con algunas bases imponibles fijadas al principio de la cadena de valor, siete son de tipo específico y cuatro son de estructura combinada o mixta. En tres países se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo en función de la concentración de azúcares del producto. Conclusiones. Si bien el número de países en que se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas es prometedor, existe una gran heterogeneidad en su diseño en cuanto a la estructura, la base imponible y los productos gravados. Se podrían aprovechar aún más los impuestos selectivos existentes a fin de que tengan un mayor impacto sobre la salud y el consumo si se incluyen todas las categorías de bebidas azucaradas, excluyendo el agua embotellada, y recurriendo más a impuestos de tipo específico ajustados frecuentemente según la inflación y basados posiblemente en la concentración de azúcares del producto. Todos los países se beneficiarían si hubiera mayor orientación. Las próximas investigaciones deberían abordar esta brecha.

RESUMO Objetivo. Caracterizar o modelo dos impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas na América Latina e no Caribe e avaliar oportunidades para aumentar o impacto desses impostos no consumo de bebidas açucaradas e na saúde. Métodos. Realizou-se uma pesquisa ampla e a análise de legislações vigentes em março de 2019, com informações obtidas por meio de instrumentos de monitoramento da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) e da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) já existentes, fontes secundárias e levantamento junto aos ministérios da Fazenda. A análise centrou-se no tipo de produtos tributados e na estrutura e base desses impostos especiais de consumo. Resultados. Dos 33 países analisados, 21 aplicam impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas. Em sete países os impostos especiais de consumo incidem também sobre água engarrafada e, em pelo menos quatro, incluem bebidas lácteas açucaradas. Dez desses tributos especiais são ad valorem com algumas bases tributárias estabelecidas no início da cadeia de valor, sete são de tipo específico e quatro têm uma estrutura combinada ou mista. Em três países os impostos especiais são estabelecidos com base na concentração de açúcares do produto. Conclusões. Apesar do número promissor de países com impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas, verifica-se grande heterogeneidade nos modelos de tributação em termos de estrutura, base tributária e produtos tributados. Os impostos especiais de consumo vigentes poderiam ser mais bem aproveitados para aumentar o impacto no consumo de bebidas açucaradas e na saúde: incluir todas as categorias de bebidas açucaradas, excluir água engarrafada e recorrer mais a impostos de tipo específico com a correção periódica pela inflação e, possivelmente, com base na concentração de açúcares do produto. Todos os países se beneficiariam em receber mais orientação. Pesquisas futuras devem ter como objetivo abordar essa lacuna.

Excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages in Latin America and the Caribbean

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. To characterize the design of excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Latin America and the Caribbean and assess opportunities to increase their impact on SSB consumption and health. Methods. A comprehensive search and review of the legislation in effect as of March 2019, collected through existing Pan American Health Organization and World Health Organization monitoring tools, secondary sources, and surveying ministries of finance. The analysis focused on the type of products taxed, and the structure and base of these excise taxes. Results. Out of the 33 countries analyzed, 21 apply excise taxes on SSBs. Seven countries also apply excise taxes on bottled water and at least four include sugar-sweetened milk drinks. Ten of these excise taxes are ad valorem with some tax bases set early in the value chain, seven are amount-specific, and four have either a combined or mixed structure. Three countries apply excise taxes based on sugar concentration. Conclusions. While the number of countries applying excise taxes on SSBs is promising, there is great heterogeneity in design in terms of structure, tax base, and products taxed. Existing excise taxes could be further leveraged to improve their impact on SSB consumption and health by including all categories of SSBs, excluding bottled water, and relying more on amount-specific taxes regularly adjusted for inflation and possibly based on sugar concentration. All countries would benefit from additional guidance. Future research should aim to address this gap.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Caracterizar el diseño de los impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en América Latina y el Caribe, y evaluar las oportunidades de aumentar su impacto en el consumo y la salud. Métodos. Se llevó a cabo una búsqueda y una evaluación exhaustivas de legislaciones vigentes a marzo del 2019, recopilada mediante las herramientas de seguimiento ya existentes de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud y de la Organización Mundial de la Salud, fuentes secundarias, así como mediante una encuesta a ministerios de finanzas. El análisis se centró en el tipo de productos gravados y la estructura y la base de estos impuestos selectivos. Resultados. De los 33 países evaluados, en 21 se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas. En siete países también se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo de agua embotellada y en al menos cuatro, se incluyen las bebidas lácteas azucaradas. Diez de estos impuestos selectivos al consumo son de tipo ad valorem con algunas bases imponibles fijadas al principio de la cadena de valor, siete son de tipo específico y cuatro son de estructura combinada o mixta. En tres países se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo en función de la concentración de azúcares del producto. Conclusiones. Si bien el número de países en que se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas es prometedor, existe una gran heterogeneidad en su diseño en cuanto a la estructura, la base imponible y los productos gravados. Se podrían aprovechar aún más los impuestos selectivos existentes a fin de que tengan un mayor impacto sobre la salud y el consumo si se incluyen todas las categorías de bebidas azucaradas, excluyendo el agua embotellada, y recurriendo más a impuestos de tipo específico ajustados frecuentemente según la inflación y basados posiblemente en la concentración de azúcares del producto. Todos los países se beneficiarían si hubiera mayor orientación. Las próximas investigaciones deberían abordar esta brecha.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Caracterizar o modelo dos impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas na América Latina e no Caribe e avaliar oportunidades para aumentar o impacto desses impostos no consumo de bebidas açucaradas e na saúde. Métodos. Realizou-se uma pesquisa ampla e a análise de legislações vigentes em março de 2019, com informações obtidas por meio de instrumentos de monitoramento da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) e da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) já existentes, fontes secundárias e levantamento junto aos ministérios da Fazenda. A análise centrou-se no tipo de produtos tributados e na estrutura e base desses impostos especiais de consumo. Resultados. Dos 33 países analisados, 21 aplicam impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas. Em sete países os impostos especiais de consumo incidem também sobre água engarrafada e, em pelo menos quatro, incluem bebidas lácteas açucaradas. Dez desses tributos especiais são ad valorem com algumas bases tributárias estabelecidas no início da cadeia de valor, sete são de tipo específico e quatro têm uma estrutura combinada ou mista. Em três países os impostos especiais são estabelecidos com base na concentração de açúcares do produto. Conclusões. Apesar do número promissor de países com impostos especiais de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas, verifica-se grande heterogeneidade nos modelos de tributação em termos de estrutura, base tributária e produtos tributados. Os impostos especiais de consumo vigentes poderiam ser mais bem aproveitados para aumentar o impacto no consumo de bebidas açucaradas e na saúde: incluir todas as categorias de bebidas açucaradas, excluir água engarrafada e recorrer mais a impostos de tipo específico com a correção periódica pela inflação e, possivelmente, com base na concentração de açúcares do produto. Todos os países se beneficiariam em receber mais orientação. Pesquisas futuras devem ter como objetivo abordar essa lacuna.