Leprosy in urban space, areas of risk for disability and worsening of this health condition in Foz Do Iguaçu, the border region between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a public health problem and a challenge for endemic countries, especially in their border regions where there are intense migration flows. The study aimed to analyse the dynamics of leprosy, in order to identify areas of risk for the occurrence of the disease and disability and places where this health condition is worsening. METHOD: This ecological study considered the new cases of leprosy reported in the municipality of Foz do Iguaçu from 2003 to 2015. Spatial and spatial-temporal scan statistics were used to identify the risk areas for the occurrence of leprosy, as well as the Getis-Ord Gi and Getis-Ord Gi* methods. Areas of risk for disabilities were identified by the scan statistic and kernel density estimation. RESULTS: A total of 840 cases were reported, of which 179 (21.3%) presented Grade 1 or 2 disabilities at the time of diagnosis. Leprosy risk areas were concentrated in the Southern, Eastern and Northeastern Health Districts of the municipality. The cases of Grade 2 disability were observed with higher intensity in regions characterized by high population density and poverty. CONCLUSION: The results of the study have revealed changes in the pattern of areas at risk of leprosy according to the investigated periods. In addition, it was possible to verify disabilities as a condition present in the investigated cases, or that may be related to the late diagnosis of the disease. In the areas of risk identified, patients have reported worse physical disability after diagnostic confirmation, or indicate inadequate clinical examination, reinforcing the need for structuring leprosy control services in a qualified manner.

Detection of risk clusters for deaths due to tuberculosis specifically in areas of southern Brazil where the disease was supposedly a non-problem.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is the infectious disease that kills the most people worldwide. The use of geoepidemiological techniques to demonstrate the dynamics of the disease in vulnerable communities is essential for its control. Thus, this study aimed to identify risk clusters for TB deaths and their variation over time. METHODS: This ecological study considered cases of TB deaths in residents of Londrina, Brazil between 2008 and 2015. We used standard, isotonic scan statistics for the detection of spatial risk clusters. The Poisson discrete model was adopted with the high and low rates option used for 10, 30 and 50% of the population at risk, with circular format windows and 999 replications considered the maximum cluster size. Getis-Ord Gi* (Gi*) statistics were used to diagnose hotspot areas for TB mortality. Kernel density was used to identify whether the clusters changed over time. RESULTS: For the standard version, spatial risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 4.9 (95% CI 2.6-9.4), 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1-5.7) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1-5.7), respectively. For the isotonic spatial statistics, the risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 2.8 (95% CI: 1.5-5.1), 2.7 (95% CI: 1.6-4.4), 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4-3.9), respectively. All risk clusters were located in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Additionally, through Gi*, hotspot areas were identified in the eastern and western regions. CONCLUSIONS: There were important risk areas for tuberculosis mortality in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Risk clusters for tuberculosis deaths were observed in areas where TB mortality was supposedly a non-problem. The isotonic and Gi* statistics were more sensitive for the detection of clusters in areas with a low number of cases; however, their applicability in public health is still restricted.

How do social-economic differences in urban areas affect tuberculosis mortality in a city in the tri-border region of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) launched the "End TB Strategy", which aims to reduce tuberculosis (TB) mortality by 95% by 2035, Brazil has made a commitment to this, however, one challenge is achieving the goal in the border region, where the TB situation is more critical. The proposal was to analyse the spatial mortality due to TB and its socio-economic determinants in the general population, around the border areas of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina, as well as the temporal trend in this region. METHOD: This ecological study considered the cases of TB deaths of residents of Foz do Iguaçu (BR), with its units of analysis being the census sectors. The standardized mortality rate was calculated for each area. Socioeconomic variables data were obtained from the 2010 Demographic Census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The scan statistic was applied to calculate the spatial relative risk (RR), considering a 95% confidence interval (CI). Spatial dependence was analysed using the Global Bivariate Moran I and Local Bivariate Moran I (LISA) to test the relationship between the socioeconomic conditions of the urban areas and mortality from TB. Analysis of the temporal trend was also performed using the Prais-Winsten test. RESULTS: A total of 74 cases of TB death were identified, of which 53 (71.6%) were male and 51 (68.9%) people of white skin colour. The mortality rate ranged from 0.28 to 22.75 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. A spatial relative risk area was identified, RR = 5.07 (95% CI 1.79-14.30). Mortality was associated with: proportion of people of brown skin colour (I: 0.0440, p = 0.033), income (low income I: - 0.0611, p = 0.002; high income I: - 0.0449, p = 0.026) and density of residents (3 and 4 residents, I: 0.0537, p = 0.007; 10 or more residents, I: - 0.0390, p = 0.035). There was an increase in the mortality rate in people of brown skin colour (6.1%; 95% CI = 0.029, 0.093). CONCLUSION: Death due to TB was associated with income, race resident density and social conditions. Although the TB mortality rate is stationary in the general population, it is increasing among people of brown skin colour.

Clusters of risk for the occurrence of leprosy and disabilities in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá: a geospatial study. / Aglomerados de risco para ocorrência de hanseníase e as incapacidades em menores de 15 anos em Cuiabá: um estudo geoespacial.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of leprosy and disabilities in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá. METHODS: Ecological study carried out in the city of Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil. The study population consisted of leprosy cases in children under 15 years old notified in the Notifiable Diseases Information System, between 2008 and 2018. Based on residential addresses, cases were georeferenced. In the analysis of the spatial distribution of the cases, the estimation of the Kernel density was used and, later, the statistics of spatial, spatio-temporal and Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends were applied. RESULTS: 514 cases of leprosy were reported in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá, with a percentage of 10.1% of cases with degree of physical disability 1 and 2.3% with degree of physical disability 2 at the time of diagnosis. With the techniques of spatial and spatio-temporal scanning, clusters of risk for leprosy were identified in the North, West, East and South regions of Cuiabá, and with the technique of Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends, a cluster was identified in the West region of Cuiabá. CONCLUSION: In Cuiabá, cases of leprosy in children under 15 years of age with disabilities were distributed throughout the urban area of the city, with the highest density of cases in the North and West regions, followed by the East region. The clusters with the highest Relative Risk were identified in the East and West regions, characterized by having low and medium income levels.

OBJETIVO: Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar a distribuição espacial da hanseníase e as incapacidades em menores de 15 anos de idade em Cuiabá. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico realizado na cidade de Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brasil. A população do estudo foi composta de casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos notificados no Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação, entre os anos de 2008 e 2018. Com base nos endereços residenciais, os casos foram georreferenciados. Na análise da distribuição espacial dos casos, foi utilizada a estimativa da densidade de Kernel e, posteriormente, aplicada a estatística de varredura espacial, espaço-temporal e variação espacial nas tendências temporais. RESULTADOS: Foram notificados 514 casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos em Cuiabá, com percentual de 10,1% de casos com grau de incapacidade física 1 e 2,3% com grau de incapacidade física 2 no momento do diagnóstico. Com as técnicas de varredura espacial e espaço-temporal, foram identificados aglomerados de risco para hanseníase nas regiões norte, oeste, leste e sul de Cuiabá, e com a técnica de variação espacial nas tendências temporais foi identificado um aglomerado na região oeste de Cuiabá. CONCLUSÃO: Em Cuiabá, os casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos com incapacidades estavam distribuídos em toda a extensão urbana da cidade, com maior densidade de casos nas regiões norte e oeste, seguida da região leste. Os aglomerados de maior risco relativo foram identificados nas regiões leste e oeste, caracterizadas por apresentar baixo e médio níveis de renda.

Identifying Hotspots of People Diagnosed of Tuberculosis with Addiction to Alcohol, Tobacco, and Other Drugs through a Geospatial Intelligence Application in Communities from Southern Brazil.

(1) Background: tuberculosis (TB) is considered one of the leading causes of death worldwide by a single infectious agent. This study aimed to identify hotspots of people diagnosed with tuberculosis and abusive use of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs in communities through a geospatial intelligence application; (2) Methods: an ecological study with a spatio-temporal approach. We considered tuberculosis cases diagnosed and registered in the Notifiable Diseases Information System, which presented information on alcoholism, smoking, and drug abuse. Spatial Variations in Temporal Trends (SVTT) and scan statistics were applied for the identification of Hotspots; (3) Results: between the study period, about 29,499 cases of tuberculosis were reported. When we applied the SVTT for alcoholism, three Hotspots were detected, one of which was protective (RR: 0.08-CI95%: 0.02-0.32) and two at risk (RR: 1.42-CI95%: 1.11-1.73; RR: 1.39-CI95%: 1.28-1.50). Regarding smoking, two risk clusters were identified (RR: 1.15-CI95%: 1.01-1.30; RR: 1.68-CI95%: 1.54-1.83). For other drugs, a risk cluster was found (RR: 1.13-CI95%: 0.99-1.29) and two protections (RR: 0.70-CI95%: 0.63-0.77; RR: 0.76-CI95%: 0.65-0.89); (4) Conclusion: it was evidenced that in the communities being studied, there exists a problem of TB with drug addiction. The disordered use of these substances may harm a person's brain and behavior and lead to an inability to continue their treatment, putting the community at further risk for TB.

Tuberculosis among People Living on the Street and Using Alcohol, Tobacco, and Illegal Drugs: Analysis of Territories in Extreme Vulnerability and Trends in Southern Brazil.

(1) Background: Tuberculosis presents an epidemiological trend toward inequality, especially among people in social exclusion and situations of vulnerability. This study aimed to analyze territories with a concentration of people diagnosed with tuberculosis in a street situation and who partake in chronic use of alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drugs. We also analyzed trends in this health condition in southern Brazil. (2) Methods: Ecological study, developed in the 399 municipalities of Paraná, southern Brazil, with all tuberculosis cases in the homeless population registered in the Information System of Notifiable Diseases between 2014 and 2018. For data analysis, we used descriptive statistics, the Prais-Winsten autoregression method for the time series, and the Getis-Ord Gi technique* for spatial analysis. (3) Results: in total, 560 cases were reported. We found a predominance of alcohol, smoking, and illicit drug users, with an increasing trend in the state and clusters of spatial risk in the East health macro-region. (4) Conclusions: We observed territories with critical levels of highly vulnerable people who use psychoactive substances and are in a street situation. The results highlight the importance of incorporating public policies of social protection for these individuals and resolutive health services that receive these cases and assist in eradicating TB.

Social inequalities and their association with the leprosy burden in a Brazilian city of low endemicity: An ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the association between social inequalities and the leprosy burden in a low endemicity scenario in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: This ecological study was carried out in the city of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo, Brazil, considering leprosy cases notified from 2006 to 2016. Regarding social inequalities, dimensions related to high household density, literacy, home occupation conditions, health conditions, household income, ethnicity and age were considered. The generalised additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) was used to verify the association between the social inequalities and leprosy burden. RESULTS: The increase in men and women with no education and people with an income of 1 to 2 minimum wages was associated with a relative increase in the number of leprosy cases (7.37%, 7.10% and 2.44%, respectively). Regarding the ethnicity variables, the increase in the proportion of men (black) and women (mixed race) with no schooling was associated with a relative increase in the number of cases of the disease (10.77% and 4.02%, respectively). Finally, for people of mixed race or ethnicity, the increase in the proportion of households with 1/2 to 1 minimum wage was related to a relative decrease in the total number of cases (-4.90%). CONCLUSION: The results show that the determinants associated with the increase in leprosy cases are similar to those in Brazilian hyperendemic regions, and that even in cities with low endemicity, social inequality is one of the main determinants of the disease.

Survival time among patients who were diagnosed with tuberculosis, the precocious deaths and associated factors in southern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: A diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) does not mean that the disease will be treated successfully, since death may occur even among those who are known to the health services. Here, we aimed to analyze patient survival time from the diagnosis of TB to death, precocious deaths, and associated factors in southern Brazil. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal study with patients who were diagnosed with TB and who died due to the disease between 2008 and 2015 in southern Brazil. The starting point for measuring survival time was the patient's diagnosis date. Techniques for survival analysis were employed, including the Kaplan-Meier test and Cox's regression. A mixed-effect model was applied for identifying the associated factors to precocious deaths. Hazard ratio (HR) and odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated. We defined p value <0.05 as statistically significant for all statistics applied. RESULTS: One hundred forty-six patients were included in the survival analysis, observing a median survival time of 23.5 days. We observed that alcoholism (HR=1.55, 95% CI=1.04-2.30) and being male (HR=6.49, 95% CI=1.03-2.68) were associated with death. The chance of precocious death within 60 days was 10.48 times greater than the chance of early death within 30 days. CONCLUSION: Most of the deaths occurred within 2 months after the diagnosis, during the intensive phase of the treatment. The use of alcohol and gender were associated with death, revealing inequality between men and women. This study advanced knowledge regarding the vulnerability associated with mortality. These findings must be addressed to fill a gap in the care cascades for active TB and ensure equity in health.

Inequality of gender, age and disabilities due to leprosy and trends in a hyperendemic metropolis: Evidence from an eleven-year time series study in Central-West Brazil.

The present study aimed to investigate the epidemiological situation of leprosy (Hansen's Disease), in a hyperendemic metropolis in the Central-West region of Brazil. We studied trends over eleven years, both in the detection of the disease and in disabilities, analyzing disparities and/or differences regarding gender and age. This is an ecological time series study conducted in Cuiabá, capital of the state of Mato Grosso. The population consisted of patients diagnosed with leprosy between the years 2008 and 2018. The time series of leprosy cases was used, stratifying it according to gender (male and female), disability grade (G0D, G1D, G2D, and not evaluated) and age. The calendar adjustment technique was applied. For modeling the trends, the Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) was used. We identified 9.739 diagnosed cases, in which 58.37% were male and 87.55% aged between 15 and 59 years. Regarding detection according to gender, there was a decrease among women and an increase in men. The study shows an increasing trend in disabilities in both genders, which may be related to the delay in diagnosis. There was also an increasing number of cases that were not assessed for disability at the time of diagnosis, which denotes the quality of the services.

[Magnitude of social determinants in the risk of death from tuberculosis in Central-west Brazil]. / Magnitud de los determinantes sociales en el riesgo de mortalidad por tuberculosis en el Centro-Oeste de Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the magnitude of social determinants in areas of risk of mortality due to tuberculosis in a high incidence city. METHOD: Ecological study, which recruited the cases of tuberculosis deaths registered between 2006 and 2016 in the capital of Mato Grosso-Brazil. The social determinants were obtained from the Human Development Units. Sweep statistics were used to identify areas of risk of mortality due to tuberculosis. Principal component analysis was carried out to identify dimensions of social determinants. Multiple logistic regression was applied to verify associations between the dimensions of social determinants and the risk of mortality from tuberculosis. A 5% error was fixed. The standard error was established at 5% for all statistical tests. RESULTS: A total of 225 deaths due to tuberculosis were registered in the period, distributed heterogeneously in the space. A cluster of risk for tuberculosis mortality was identified, with RR=2.09 (95%CI: 1.48-2.94; p=0.04). Social determinants, low educational level and poverty were associated with the risk of mortality due to tuberculosis (OR: 2.92; 95%CI: 1.17-7.28). Income had a negative association with the risk of mortality due to tuberculosis (OR: 0.05; 95%CI: 0.00-0.70). The value of the ROC curve of the model was 92.1%. CONCLUSIONS: The results confirmed that the risk of mortality due to tuberculosis is a problem associated with social determinants. Health policies and social protection programmes can collaborate to address this problem.

Social determinants of deaths from pneumonia and tuberculosis in children in Brazil: an ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the risk areas of deaths due to unspecified pneumonia and tuberculosis (TB) in children, and to identify if there is a relationship between these events with higher TB incidence and social determinants. METHODS: Ecological study carried out in Brazil. All cases of TB or unspecified pneumonia deaths in children under 5 years of age reported between 2006 and 2016 were included and collected through Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (Brazil's electronic database). The Spatial Scan Statistics was used to identify areas at higher risk of dying from this event. The spatial association was verified through the Getis-Ord techniques. The Bivariate Moran Global Index was used to verify the spatial autocorrelation between the two events. To identify the association of TB and pneumonia deaths with endemic areas of pulmonary TB and social determinants, four explanatory statistical models were identified. RESULTS: A total of 21 391 cases of pneumonia and 238 cases of TB were identified. Spatial scanning analysis enabled the detection of four clusters of risk for TB (relative risk, RR, between 3.30 and 18.18) and 22 clusters for pneumonia (RR between 1.38 and 5.24). The spatial association of the events was confirmed (z-score 3.74 and 64.34) and spatial autocorrelation between events (Moran Index:0.031 (p=0.001)). The zero-inflated negative binomial distribution was chosen, and an association for both events was identified with the TB incidence rate (OR 5.3, 95% CI 2.85 to 9.84; OR 6.63, 95% CI 5.62 to 7.81), with the Gini Index (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.82; OR 4.22, 95% CI 3.63 to4.92). Primary care coverage showed an inverse association for both events (OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.17; OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.21) for pneumonia). Finally, a family that benefited from the Bolsa Família Programme had an inverse association for deaths from pneumonia (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.25). CONCLUSIONS: The results do not just contribute to reduce mortality in children, but mainly contribute to prevent premature deaths through identification of critical areas in Brazil, which is crucial to qualify health surveillance services.

Spatial analysis of cases of Tuberculosis with Mental Disorders in São Paulo.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the spatial distribution of Tuberculosis cases with Mental Disorders, identifying factors that determine its occurrence. METHOD: Ecological study, conducted in the municipalities of São Paulo State. Secondary data were used, with the incidence of Tuberculosis and Mental Disorders as dependent variables in the years 2012 to 2015 and independent variables, socioeconomic, health and income transfer data. The Geographically Weighted Regression was applied in this study. RESULTS: It was observed a distinct distribution between cases of Tuberculosis and Mental Disorders in the municipalities of São Paulo State. Among the explanatory factors, the Primary Care Coverage, population of freedom and income inequality were spatially associated with Mental Illness (R2= 0.12); Alcoholism (R2= 0.12) Illicit Drugs (R2= 0.50) and Smoking (R2= 0.50). CONCLUSION / FINAL CONSIDERATIONS: The study advances in knowledge by evidencing the spatial distribution of cases of Tuberculosis and Mental Disorders, evidencing the determining factors for its occurrence in São Paulo State.

Predictive model of unfavorable outcomes for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the temporal trend, identify the factors related and elaborate a predictive model for unfavorable treatment outcomes for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). METHODS: Retrospective cohort study with all cases diagnosed with MDR-TB between the years 2006 and 2015 in the state of São Paulo. The data were collected from the state system of TB cases notifications (TB-WEB). The temporal trend analyzes of treatment outcomes was performed through the Prais-Winsten analysis. In order to verify the factors related to the unfavorable outcomes, abandonment, death with basic cause TB and treatment failure, the binary logistic regression was used. Pictorial representations of the factors related to treatment outcome and their prognostic capacity through the nomogram were elaborated. RESULTS: Both abandonment and death have a constant temporal tendency, whereas the failure showed it as decreasing. Regarding the risk factors for such outcomes, using illicit drugs doubled the odds for abandonment and death. Besides that, being diagnosed in emergency units or during hospitalizations was a risk factor for death. On the contrary, having previous multidrug-resistant treatments reduced the odds for the analyzed outcomes by 33%. The nomogram presented a predictive model with 65% accuracy for dropouts, 70% for deaths and 80% for failure. CONCLUSIONS: The modification of the current model of care is an essential factor for the prevention of unfavorable outcomes. Through predictive models, as presented in this study, it is possible to develop patient-centered actions, considering their risk factors and increasing the chances for cure.

Aglomerados de risco para ocorrência de hanseníase e as incapacidades em menores de 15 anos em Cuiabá: um estudo geoespacial / Clusters of risk for the occurrence of leprosy and disabilities in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá: a geospatial study

RESUMO Objetivo: Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar a distribuição espacial da hanseníase e as incapacidades em menores de 15 anos de idade em Cuiabá. Métodos: Estudo ecológico realizado na cidade de Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brasil. A população do estudo foi composta de casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos notificados no Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação, entre os anos de 2008 e 2018. Com base nos endereços residenciais, os casos foram georreferenciados. Na análise da distribuição espacial dos casos, foi utilizada a estimativa da densidade de Kernel e, posteriormente, aplicada a estatística de varredura espacial, espaço-temporal e variação espacial nas tendências temporais. Resultados: Foram notificados 514 casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos em Cuiabá, com percentual de 10,1% de casos com grau de incapacidade física 1 e 2,3% com grau de incapacidade física 2 no momento do diagnóstico. Com as técnicas de varredura espacial e espaço-temporal, foram identificados aglomerados de risco para hanseníase nas regiões norte, oeste, leste e sul de Cuiabá, e com a técnica de variação espacial nas tendências temporais foi identificado um aglomerado na região oeste de Cuiabá. Conclusão: Em Cuiabá, os casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos com incapacidades estavam distribuídos em toda a extensão urbana da cidade, com maior densidade de casos nas regiões norte e oeste, seguida da região leste. Os aglomerados de maior risco relativo foram identificados nas regiões leste e oeste, caracterizadas por apresentar baixo e médio níveis de renda.

ABSTRACT Objective This study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of leprosy and disabilities in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá. Methods Ecological study carried out in the city of Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil. The study population consisted of leprosy cases in children under 15 years old notified in the Notifiable Diseases Information System, between 2008 and 2018. Based on residential addresses, cases were georeferenced. In the analysis of the spatial distribution of the cases, the estimation of the Kernel density was used and, later, the statistics of spatial, spatio-temporal and Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends were applied. Results 514 cases of leprosy were reported in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá, with a percentage of 10.1% of cases with degree of physical disability 1 and 2.3% with degree of physical disability 2 at the time of diagnosis. With the techniques of spatial and spatio-temporal scanning, clusters of risk for leprosy were identified in the North, West, East and South regions of Cuiabá, and with the technique of Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends, a cluster was identified in the West region of Cuiabá. Conclusion In Cuiabá, cases of leprosy in children under 15 years of age with disabilities were distributed throughout the urban area of the city, with the highest density of cases in the North and West regions, followed by the East region. The clusters with the highest Relative Risk were identified in the East and West regions, characterized by having low and medium income levels

Social determinants, their relationship with leprosy risk and temporal trends in a tri-border region in Latin America.

BACKGROUND: Brazil is the only country in Latin America that has adopted a national health system. This causes differences in access to health among Latin American countries and induces noticeable migration to Brazilian regions to seek healthcare. This phenomenon has led to difficulties in the control and elimination of diseases related to poverty, such as leprosy. The aim of this study was to evaluate social determinants and their relationship with the risk of leprosy, as well as to examine the temporal trend of its occurrence in a Brazilian municipality located on the tri-border area between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. METHODS: This ecological study investigated newly-diagnosed cases of leprosy between 2003 and 2015. Exploratory analysis of the data was performed through descriptive statistics. For spatial analysis, geocoding of the data was performed using spatial scan statistic techniques to obtain the Relative Risk (RR) for each census tract, with their respective 95% confidence intervals calculated. The Bivariate Moran I test, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were applied to analyze the spatial relationships of social determinants and leprosy risk. The temporal trend of the annual coefficient of new cases was obtained through the Prais-Winsten regression. A standard error of 5% was considered statistically significant (p < 0.05). RESULTS: Of the 840 new cases identified in the study, there was a predominance of females (n = 427, 50.8%), of white race/color (n = 685, 81.6%), age range 15 to 59 years (n = 624, 74.3%), and incomplete elementary education (n = 504, 60.0%). The results obtained from multivariate analysis revealed that the proportion of households with monthly nominal household income per capita greater than 1 minimum wage (ß = 0.025, p = 0.036) and people of brown race (ß = -0.101, p = 0.024) were statistically-significantly associated with risk of illness due to leprosy. These results also confirmed that social determinants and risk of leprosy were significantly spatially non-stationary. Regarding the temporal trend, a decrease of 4% (95% CI [-0.053, -0.033], p = 0.000) per year was observed in the rate of detection of new cases of leprosy. CONCLUSION: The social determinants income and race/color were associated with the risk of leprosy. The study's highlighting of these social determinants can contribute to the development of public policies directed toward the elimination of leprosy in the border region.

Cobertura de tratamento diretamente observado segundo o risco de coinfecção tb/hiv e desfechos desfavoráveis / Cobertura de tratamiento directamente observado según riesgo de coinfección tb/vih y desenlaces desfavorables / Coverage of directly observed treatment according to the risk of tuberculosis/hiv coinfection and unfavorable outcomes

RESUMO Objetivo: analisar a cobertura do tratamento diretamente observado segundo o risco de coinfecção tuberculose/vírus da imunodeficiência humana e desfechos desfavoráveis. Método: estudo ecológico com dados secundários relacionados aos 10.389 casos novos de coinfecção notificados no estado de São Paulo de 2010 a 2015. Dados analisados pelo Índice Local de Moran, estatística de varredura espacial e Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos. Resultados: região metropolitana de São Paulo e Baixada Santista concentraram maior incidência de coinfecção e abandono ao tratamento. Baixa cobertura de tratamento diretamente observado esteve associada aos territórios em risco para a coinfecção e maior risco de abandono. Município de São Paulo, região litorânea e região de Ribeirão Preto apresentaram maior incidência de óbito, o qual não apresentou relação com a cobertura do tratamento diretamente observado. Conclusão: baixa cobertura de tratamento diretamente observado apresentou associação com maior risco de coinfecção e abandono do tratamento.

RESUMEN Objetivo: Analizar la cobertura del tratamiento directamente observado según el riesgo de coinfección tuberculosis/virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana y desenlaces desfavorables. Método: Estudio ecológico con datos secundarios relacionados con los 10.389 nuevos casos de coinfección informados en el estado de São Paulo de 2010 a 2015. Datos analizados mediante Índice Local de Moran, estadística de muestreo espacial y Modelos Bayesianos Jerárquicos. Resultados: La región metropolitana de São Paulo y Baixada Santista concentraron mayor incidencia de coinfección y abandono del tratamiento. La baja cobertura de tratamiento directamente observado estuvo asociada a las áreas con riesgo de coinfección y mayor grado de abandono. El Municipio de São Paulo, la región litoral y el área de Ribeirão Preto expresaron mayor incidencia de decesos, no relacionándose ello con la cobertura del tratamiento directamente observado. Conclusión: La baja cobertura de tratamiento directamente observado mostró asociación com mayor riesgo de coinfección y abandono del tratamiento.

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the coverage of directly observed treatment according to the risk of tuberculosis/human immunodeficiency virus coinfection and unfavorable outcomes. Methods: Ecological study with secondary data related to 10,389 new cases of coinfection notified in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, from 2010 to 2015. They were analyzed by applying local Moran's index, spatial scan statistics, and hierarchical Bayesian models. Results: The São Paulo metropolitan area and Baixada Santista concentrate the highest incidence of coinfection and treatment default. Low coverage of directly observed treatment was associated with areas at risk for the coinfection and higher withdrawal risk. The city of São Paulo, the coastal region, and the Ribeirão Preto area showed a higher incidence of deaths, which did not show an association with the coverage of directly observed treatment. Conclusion: Low coverage of directly observed treatment was associated with a higher risk of coinfection and treatment default.

Spatial analysis of cases of Tuberculosis with Mental Disorders in São Paulo / Análisis espacial entre casos de tuberculosis y transtornos mentales en São Paulo / Análise espacial dos casos de Tuberculose com Transtornos Mentais em São Paulo

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the spatial distribution of Tuberculosis cases with Mental Disorders, identifying factors that determine its occurrence. Method: Ecological study, conducted in the municipalities of São Paulo State. Secondary data were used, with the incidence of Tuberculosis and Mental Disorders as dependent variables in the years 2012 to 2015 and independent variables, socioeconomic, health and income transfer data. The Geographically Weighted Regression was applied in this study. Results: It was observed a distinct distribution between cases of Tuberculosis and Mental Disorders in the municipalities of São Paulo State. Among the explanatory factors, the Primary Care Coverage, population of freedom and income inequality were spatially associated with Mental Illness (R2= 0.12); Alcoholism (R2= 0.12) Illicit Drugs (R2= 0.50) and Smoking (R2= 0.50). Conclusion / Final considerations: The study advances in knowledge by evidencing the spatial distribution of cases of Tuberculosis and Mental Disorders, evidencing the determining factors for its occurrence in São Paulo State.

RESUMEN Objetivo: Analizar la distribución espacial entre casos de tuberculosis y trastornos mentales, identificando factores que determinan su ocurrencia. Método: Estudio ecológico, conducido en los municipios del estado de São Paulo. Se utilizaron datos secundarios, teniendo como variable dependiente la incidencia de la tuberculosis y trastornos mentales en los años de 2012 a 2015 y variables independientes, datos socioeconómicos, sanitarios y de transferencia de renta. Se aplicó a Geographically Weighted Regression. Resultados: Se observó una distribución distinta entre casos de tuberculosis y trastornos mentales en los municipios del estado de São Paulo. Entre los factores explicativos, la cobertura de Atención Básica, población privada de libertad y desigualdad de ingreso estuvieron asociadas espacialmente con Enfermedad Mental (R2= 0,12); Alcoholismo (R2= 0,12) Drogas Ilícitas (R2= 0,50) y Tabaquismo (R2= 0,50). Conclusión / Consideraciones finales: El estudio avanza en el conocimiento al evidenciar la distribución espacial de los casos de tuberculosis y trastornos mentales, evidenciando los factores determinantes para su ocurrencia en el estado de São Paulo.

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espacial dos casos de Tuberculose com Transtornos Mentais, identificando fatores que determinam sua ocorrência. Método: Estudo ecológico, conduzido nos municípios do estado de São Paulo. Utilizaram-se dados secundários, tendo-se como variável dependente a incidência da Tuberculose e Transtornos Mentais nos anos de 2012 a 2015 e variáveis independentes, dados socioeconômicos, sanitários e de transferência de renda. Aplicou-se a Geographically Weighted Regression. Resultados: Observou-se uma distribuição distinta entre casos de Tuberculose e Transtornos Mentais nos municípios do estado de São Paulo. Entre os fatores explicativos, a cobertura de Atenção Básica, População Privada de Liberdade e desigualdade de renda estiveram associadas espacialmente com Doença Mental (R2= 0,12); Alcoolismo (R2= 0,12) Drogas Ilícitas (R2= 0,50) e Tabagismo (R2= 0,50). Conclusão/ Considerações finais: O estudo avança no conhecimento ao evidenciar a distribuição espacial dos casos de Tuberculose e Transtornos Mentais, evidenciando os fatores determinantes para sua ocorrência no estado de São Paulo.

Predictive model of unfavorable outcomes for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis / Modelo preditivo dos desfechos desfavoráveis da tuberculose multidroga-resistente

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE to analyze the temporal trend, identify the factors related and elaborate a predictive model for unfavorable treatment outcomes for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). METHODS Retrospective cohort study with all cases diagnosed with MDR-TB between the years 2006 and 2015 in the state of São Paulo. The data were collected from the state system of TB cases notifications (TB-WEB). The temporal trend analyzes of treatment outcomes was performed through the Prais-Winsten analysis. In order to verify the factors related to the unfavorable outcomes, abandonment, death with basic cause TB and treatment failure, the binary logistic regression was used. Pictorial representations of the factors related to treatment outcome and their prognostic capacity through the nomogram were elaborated. RESULTS Both abandonment and death have a constant temporal tendency, whereas the failure showed it as decreasing. Regarding the risk factors for such outcomes, using illicit drugs doubled the odds for abandonment and death. Besides that, being diagnosed in emergency units or during hospitalizations was a risk factor for death. On the contrary, having previous multidrug-resistant treatments reduced the odds for the analyzed outcomes by 33%. The nomogram presented a predictive model with 65% accuracy for dropouts, 70% for deaths and 80% for failure. CONCLUSIONS The modification of the current model of care is an essential factor for the prevention of unfavorable outcomes. Through predictive models, as presented in this study, it is possible to develop patient-centered actions, considering their risk factors and increasing the chances for cure.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Analisar a tendência temporal, identificar os fatores relacionados e elaborar um modelo preditivo para os desfechos desfavoráveis do tratamento da tuberculose multidroga-resistente. MÉTODOS Estudo de coorte retrospectiva com todos os casos diagnosticados com tuberculose multidroga-resistente entre os anos de 2006 e 2015 no estado de São Paulo. Os dados secundários foram provenientes do sistema estadual de notificações de casos de tuberculose, o TBWeb. Foi realizada a análise de tendência temporal dos desfechos de tratamento por meio da regressão de Prais-Winsten. Para verificar os fatores relacionados com os desfechos desfavoráveis (óbito com tuberculose como causa básica, abandono e falência do tratamento), foi empregada a regressão logística binária. Representações pictóricas dos fatores relacionados ao desfecho do tratamento e sua capacidade prognóstica foram elaboradas por meio de nomogramas. RESULTADOS Tanto o abandono como o óbito tiveram tendência temporal estacionária, enquanto a falência apresentou tendência decrescente. Em relação aos fatores de risco para tais desfechos, utilizar drogas ilícitas dobrou as chances de abandono e óbito. Além disso, ser diagnosticado em unidades de urgência ou emergência ou durante internações hospitalares foi um fator de risco para o óbito. Ao contrário, ter feito tratamentos prévios da multidroga-resistência reduziu as chances dos desfechos analisados. O nomograma apresentou um modelo preditivo com precisão de 65% para os abandonos, 70% para os óbitos e 80% para a falência. CONCLUSÕES A prevenção de desfechos desfavoráveis no tratamento da tuberculose multidroga-resistente implica a modificação do modelo de atenção vigente. Utilizando modelos preditivos, como o apresentado neste estudo, torna-se possível elaborar ações centradas nos pacientes, considerando seus fatores de risco e aumentando as chances de cura.

Análise espacial dos determinantes sociais e o risco de mortes por tuberculose da aplicação da estatística de varredura à abordagem Bayesiana em uma metrópole do Centro Oeste brasileiro / Spatial analysis of social determinants and risk of death from tuberculosis: from the application of scanning statistics to the Bayesian approach in the brazilian Midwest

A tuberculose é uma das dez principais causas de morte dentre as doenças infecciosas no mundo, o que evidencia a doença como um problema de saúde pública. A redução da mortalidade por tuberculose em 95% até 2035, proposta pela Estratégia End TB, tem sido desafiadora para o Brasil devido sua extensão territorial, variações culturais e desigualdades na distribuição dos recursos de proteção social e de saúde. Assim, buscou-se analisar a relação espacial e espaço-temporal dos determinantes sociais e o risco de mortes por tuberculose em Cuiabá. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico, realizado na cidade de Cuiabá, capital do estado de Mato Grosso. As unidades de análise do estudo foram as Unidades de Desenvolvimento Humano (UDHs) e a população foi constituída por casos de óbitos que apresentaram como causa básica a TB registrados no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM) entre 2006 a 2016, residentes na zona urbana do município. Para identificação das áreas de risco das mortes por tuberculose, utilizou-se a estatística de varredura. Em seguida, recorreu-se à técnica da Análise de Componentes Principais que permitiu a elaboração das dimensões dos determinantes sociais. A associação entre os determinantes sociais e as áreas de risco das mortes por tuberculose foi obtida, por meio da regressão logística binária. As modelagens Bayesianas foram empregadas, por meio da abordagem Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA), para verificar os riscos relativos temporais e espaciais e avaliar sua a relação com covariáveis representativas dos determinantes sociais. Nesse período foram registradas 225 mortes por tuberculose, identificou-se aglomerado de risco para a mortalidade por tuberculose, com RR = 2,09 (IC95% = 1,48-2,94; p = 0,04). No modelo logístico, os determinantes sociais relacionados ao déficit escolar e pobreza estiveram associados ao aglomerado de risco de mortes por tuberculose (OR=2,92; IC95% = 1,17-7,28), a renda apresentou uma associação negativa (OR=0,05; IC95% = 0,00 - 0,70). O valor da curva ROC do modelo foi de 92,1%. Em relação aos modelos Bayesianos observou-se redução do risco de morte por tuberculose entre 2006 (RR=1,03) e 2016 (RR=0,98) e ainda áreas de risco que persistem por mais de uma década. Dentre os determinantes sociais, a renda foi um importante fator associado ao risco de morte por tuberculose, sendo que o aumento de um desvio padrão na renda correspondeu à diminuição de 31% no risco de mortalidade por tuberculose. Os resultados do estudo apontam que existe associação entre os determinantes sociais e o risco de mortalidade por tuberculose no município investigado, sendo este um fenômeno que persiste no tempo. O investimento em políticas públicas de melhoria de distribuição de renda pode favorecer a mudança dessa realidade. Espera-se que os achados possam nortear gestores e trabalhadores no âmbito local e regional

Tuberculosis is one of the top 10 causes of death among infectious diseases in the world, which shows the disease as a public health problem. The reduction of tuberculosis mortality by 95% up to 2035, proposed by the End TB Strategy, has been challenging for Brazil due to its territorial extension, cultural variations and inequalities in the distribution of social protection and health resources. Thus, we sought to analyze the spatial and spatial-temporal relationship of social determinants and the risk of deaths from tuberculosis in Cuiabá.This is an ecological study conducted in the city of Cuiaba, capital of Mato Grosso. The units of analysis of the study were the Human Development Units (UDHs) and the population was constituted by cases of deaths that presented the basic cause of TB registered in the Mortality Information System (SIM) between 2006 and 2016, of the municipality.To identify the risk areas for tuberculosis deaths, the scan statistic was used. Next, we used the technique of Principal Component Analysis that allowed the elaboration of the dimensions of social determinants. The association between social determinants and risk areas for tuberculosis deaths was obtained through binary logistic regression. Bayesian modeling was used, through the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach, to verify temporal and spatial relative risks and to evaluate its relationship with covariables representative of social determinants. During this period, there were 225 deaths due to tuberculosis and a risk cluster was identified for tuberculosis mortality, with RR = 2.09 (IC95% = 1.48-2.94, p = 0.04). In the logistic model, the social determinants related to school deficit and poverty were associated with the risk cluster of deaths due to tuberculosis (OR = 2.92, IC95% = 1.17-7.28), income had a negative association (OR = 0.05, IC95% = 0.00 - 0.70). The value of the ROC curve of the model was 92.1%. In relation to Bayesian models, there was a reduction in the risk of death due to tuberculosis between 2006 (RR = 1.03) and 2016 (RR = 0.98), as well as risk areas that persisted for more than a decade. Among the social determinants, income was an important factor associated with the risk of death due to tuberculosis, and the increase of a standard deviation in the income corresponded to a 31% decrease in the risk of mortality due to tuberculosis. The results of the study indicate that there is an association between the social determinants and the risk of mortality due to tuberculosis in the municipality under investigation, which is a phenomenon that persists over time. Investment in public policies to improve income distribution may favor a change in this reality. It is hoped that the findings will guide managers and workers at local and regional levels