Understanding Household Dynamics From the Ground Up: A Longitudinal Study From a Rural South African Setting.

Investigations into household structure in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) provide important insight into how families manage domestic life in response to resource allocation and caregiving needs during periods of rapid sociopolitical and health-related challenges. Recent evidence on household structure in many LMICs contrasts with long-standing viewpoints of worldwide convergence to a Western nuclearized household model. Here, we adopt a household-centered theoretical and methodological framework to investigate longitudinal patterns and dynamics of household structure in a rural South African setting during a period of high AIDS-related mortality and socioeconomic change. Data come from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (2003-2015). Using latent transition models, we derived six distinct household types by examining conditional interdependency between household heads' characteristics, members' age composition, and migration status. More than half of households were characterized by their complex and multigenerational profiles, with considerable within-typology variation in household size and dependency structure. Transition analyses showed stability of household types under female headship, while higher proportions of nuclearized household types dissolved over time. Household dissolution was closely linked to prior mortality experiences-particularly, following death of a male head. Our findings highlight the need to better conceptualize and contextualize household changes across populations and over time.

"I'm Getting Life from the Treatment": Perceptions of Life and Death Among Middle-Aged and Older Medication-Adherent Persons Living with HIV in Rural South Africa.

The widespread availability of health information and treatment for HIV in Southern Africa does not reach all populations. Few programs and materials are developed with middle-aged and older rural individuals living with HIV as the target audience, despite this being a growing population. This vacuum inevitably exacerbates the disjuncture between clinical and experiential knowledge. This study uses in-depth interviews from 2018 with middle-aged and older rural South Africans who self-report medication adherence to ART in order to explore experiences of living with HIV and beliefs about anti-retroviral treatment (ART). Participants revealed a general sense of vulnerability as a major motivation for HIV medication adherence. A majority of the participants believed that death was imminent if they defaulted on ART at any point in time. Although the availability of ART brought hope to many, HIV was still perceived as a death sentence, particularly if ART adherence was imperfect. The study findings suggest a need to examine the psychosocial component of community programs for middle-aged and older people living with HIV. For this growing population that experienced the full course of the epidemic, more research is needed on the burden of psychological and mental health issues emerging from the need for long-term HIV medication adherence.

Twin epidemics: the effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan African settings are experiencing dual epidemics of HIV and hypertension. We investigate effects of each condition on mortality and examine whether HIV and hypertension interact in determining mortality. METHODS: Data come from the 2010 Ha Nakekela population-based survey of individuals ages 40 and older (1,802 women; 1,107 men) nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa, which provides mortality follow-up from population surveillance until mid-2019. Using discrete-time event history models stratified by sex, we assessed differential mortality risks according to baseline measures of HIV infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure. RESULTS: During the 8-year follow-up period, mortality was high (477 deaths). Survey weighted estimates are that 37% of men (mortality rate 987.53/100,000, 95% CI: 986.26 to 988.79) and 25% of women (mortality rate 937.28/100,000, 95% CI: 899.7 to 974.88) died. Over a quarter of participants were living with HIV (PLWH) at baseline, over 50% of whom had unsuppressed viral loads. The share of the population with a systolic blood pressure of 140mm Hg or higher increased from 24% at ages 40-59 to 50% at ages 75-plus and was generally higher for those not living with HIV compared to PLWH. Men and women with unsuppressed viral load had elevated mortality risks (men: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.23, 95% CI: 2.21 to 4.71, women: aOR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.27 to 3.30). There was a weak, non-linear relationship between systolic blood pressure and higher mortality risk. We found no significant interaction between systolic blood pressure and HIV status for either men or women (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that HIV and elevated blood pressure are acting as separate, non-interacting epidemics affecting high proportions of the older adult population. PLWH with unsuppressed viral load were at higher mortality risk compared to those uninfected. Systolic blood pressure was a mortality risk factor independent of HIV status. As antiretroviral therapy becomes more widespread, further longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand how the dynamics of increased longevity and multimorbidity among people living with both HIV and high blood pressure, as well as the emergence of COVID-19, may alter these patterns.

Clusters of HIV Risk and Protective Sexual Behaviors in Agincourt, Rural South Africa: Findings from the Ha Nakekela Population-Based Study of Ages 15 and Older.

Understanding how sexual behaviors cluster in distinct population subgroups along the life course is critical for effective targeting and tailoring of HIV prevention messaging and intervention activities. We examined interrelatedness of sexual behaviors and variation between men and women across a wide age range in a rural South African setting with a high HIV burden. Data come from the Ha Nakekela population-based survey of people aged 15-85-plus drawn from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System. We used latent class analysis of six sexual behavior indicators to identify distinct subgroup sexual behavior clusters. We then examined associations between class membership and sociodemographic and other behavioral risk factors and assessed the accuracy of a reduced set of sexual behavior indicators to classify individuals into latent classes. We identified three sexual behavior classes: (1) single with consistent protective behaviors; (2) risky behaviors; and (3) in union with lack of protective behaviors. Patterns of sexual behaviors varied by gender. Class membership was also associated with age, HIV status, nationality, and alcohol use. With only two sexual behavior indicators (union status and multiple sexual partners), individuals were accurately assigned to their most likely predicted class. There were distinct multidimensional sexual behavior clusters in population subgroups that varied by sex, age, and HIV status. In this population, only two brief questions were needed to classify individuals into risk classes. Replication in other situations is needed to confirm these findings.

Sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa: trends and comparisons.

There is limited information about sexual behavior among older Africans, which is problematic given high HIV rates among older adults. We use a population-based survey among people aged 15-80+ to examine the prevalence of sexual risk and protective behaviors in the context of a severe HIV epidemic. We focus on variation across the life course, gender and HIV serostatus to compare the similarities and differences of young, middle aged, and older adults. Younger adults continue to be at risk of HIV, with potential partners being more likely to have been diagnosed with an STI and more likely to have HIV, partner change is high, and condom use is low. Middle aged and older adults engage in sexual behavior that makes them vulnerable at older ages, including extramarital sex, low condom use, and cross-generational sex with people in age groups with the highest rates of HIV. We find insignificant differences between HIV positive and negative adults' reports of recent sexual activity. This study provides new information on sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa to inform HIV prevention and treatment programing.

'Taking care' in the age of AIDS: older rural South Africans' strategies for surviving the HIV epidemic.

Older adults have been largely overlooked in community studies of HIV in highly endemic African countries. In our rural study site in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, HIV prevalence among those aged 50 and older is 16.5%, suggesting that older adults are at risk of both acquiring and transmitting HIV. This paper utilises community-based focus-group interviews with older rural South African men and women to better understand the normative environment in which they come to understand and make decisions about their health as they age in an HIV endemic setting. We analyse the dimensions of an inductively emerging theme: ku ti hlayisa (to take care of yourself). For older adults, 'taking care' in an age of AIDS represented: (1) an individualised pathway to achieving old-age respectability through the taking up of responsibilities and behaviours that characterise being an older person, (2) a set of gendered norms and strategies for reducing one's HIV risk, and (3) a shared responsibility for attenuating the impact of the HIV epidemic in the local community. Findings reflect the individual, interdependent and communal ways in which older rural South Africans understand HIV risk and prevention, ways that also map onto current epidemiological thinking for improving HIV-related outcomes in high-prevalence settings.

Reconsidering gendered sexualities in a generalized AIDS epidemic.

Using the threat of a severe AIDS epidemic in a collection of rural villages in South Africa, we illustrate how men and women reconsider gendered sexualities through conversations and interactions in everyday life. We draw from data collected by local ethnographers and focus on the processes through which men and women collectively respond to the threat posed by AIDS to relationships, families, and communities. Whereas previous research has shown that individuals often reaffirm hegemonic norms about gender and sexuality in response to disruptions to heteronormative gender relations, we find that the threat of AIDS provokes reconsideration of gendered sexualities at the community level. That is, our data demonstrate how men and women-through the interactions and exchanges that make up their daily lives-debate, challenge, make sense of, and attempt to come to terms with social norms circumscribing gendered sexual practices in a context where the threat of a fatal disease transmitted through sex looms large. We argue that ethnographic data are particularly useful for capturing communal responses to events that threaten heteronormative gender relations and reflect on how our findings inform theories of gender relations and processes.

Cardiometabolic disease risk and HIV status in rural South Africa: establishing a baseline.

BACKGROUND: To inform health care and training, resource and research priorities, it is essential to establish how non-communicable disease risk factors vary by HIV-status in high HIV burden areas; and whether long-term anti-retroviral therapy (ART) plays a modifying role. METHODS: As part of a cohort initiation, we conducted a baseline HIV/cardiometabolic risk factor survey in 2010-2011 using an age-sex stratified random sample of ages 15+ in rural South Africa. We modelled cardiometabolic risk factors and their associations by HIV-status and self-reported ART status for ages 18+ using sex-stratified logistic regression models. RESULTS: Age-standardised HIV prevalence in women was 26% (95% CI 24-28%) and 19% (95% CI 17-21) in men. People with untreated HIV were less likely to have a high waist circumference in both women (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.52-0.86) and men (OR 0.42; 95% CI 0.22-0.82). Untreated women were more likely to have low HDL and LDL, and treated women high triglycerides. Cardiometabolic risk factors increased with age except low HDL. The prevalence of hypertension was high (40% in women; 30% in men). CONCLUSIONS: Sub-Saharan Africa is facing intersecting epidemics of HIV and hypertension. In this setting, around half the adult population require long-term care for at least one of HIV, hypertension or diabetes. Together with the adverse effects that HIV and its treatment have on lipids, this may have serious implications for the South African health care system. Monitoring of the interaction of HIV, ART use, and cardiometabolic disease is needed at both individual and population levels.

Implementing "insider" ethnography: lessons from the Public Conversations about HIV/AIDS project in rural South Africa.

We describe the conceptualization and implementation of a research methodology in which "insider" community members work with "outsider" investigators as participant observers to document everyday conversations taking place in public settings in their communities. Our study took place in a resource-poor area of rural South Africa and focused on HIV/AIDS, yet we aim here to provide a road map for those interested in implementing this approach in other contexts for various empirical ends. Because this approach is unusual, we highlight considerations in selecting a team of ethnographers, describe the training process, and offer ways to ensure the data collected are trustworthy and confidential. We describe the advantages and limitations of utilizing "insider ethnography" in contexts where being indigenous to the study site provides access to perspectives that cannot be obtained through other methods. Finally, we examine how mutuality and the positionality of the research team affect data collection and quality.

Mortality variability and differentials by age and causes of death in rural South Africa, 1994-2018.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding mortality variability by age and cause is critical to identifying intervention and prevention actions to support disadvantaged populations. We assessed mortality changes in two rural South African populations over 25 years covering pre-AIDS and peak AIDS epidemic and subsequent antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability. METHODS: Using population surveillance data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS; 1994-2018) and Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI; 2000-2018) for 5-year periods, we calculated life expectancy from birth to age 85, mortality age distributions and variation, and life-years lost (LYL) decomposed into four cause-of-death groups. RESULTS: The AIDS epidemic shifted the age-at-death distribution to younger ages and increased LYL. For AHDSS, between 1994-1998 and 1999-2003 LYL increased for females from 13.6 years (95% CI 12.7 to 14.4) to 22.1 (95% CI 21.2 to 23.0) and for males from 19.9 (95% CI 18.8 to 20.8) to 27.1 (95% CI 26.2 to 28.0). AHRI LYL in 2000-2003 was extremely high (females=40.7 years (95% CI 39.8 to 41.5), males=44.8 years (95% CI 44.1 to 45.5)). Subsequent widespread ART availability reduced LYL (2014-2018) for women (AHDSS=15.7 (95% CI 15.0 to 16.3); AHRI=22.4 (95% CI 21.7 to 23.1)) and men (AHDSS=21.2 (95% CI 20.5 to 22.0); AHRI=27.4 (95% CI 26.7 to 28.2)), primarily due to reduced HIV/AIDS/TB deaths in mid-life and other communicable disease deaths in children. External causes increased as a proportion of LYL for men (2014-2018: AHRI=25%, AHDSS=17%). The share of AHDSS LYL 2014-2018 due to non-communicable diseases exceeded pre-HIV levels: females=43%; males=40%. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight shifting burdens in cause-specific LYL and persistent mortality differentials in two populations experiencing complex epidemiological transitions. Results show high contributions of child deaths to LYL at the height of the AIDS epidemic. Reductions in LYL were primarily driven by lowered HIV/AIDS/TB and other communicable disease mortality during the ART periods. LYL differentials persist despite widespread ART availability, highlighting the contributions of other communicable diseases in children, HIV/AIDS/TB and external causes in mid-life and non-communicable diseases in older ages.

Prevalence of HIV among those 15 and older in rural South Africa.

A greater knowledge of the burden of HIV in rural areas of Southern Africa is needed, especially among older adults. We conducted a cross-sectional biomarker survey in the rural South African Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance site in 2010-2011 and estimated HIV prevalence and risk factors. Using an age-sex stratified random sample of ages 15+, a total of 5037 (65.7%) of a possible 7662 individuals were located and 4362 (86.6%) consented to HIV testing. HIV prevalence was high (19.4%) and characterized by a large gender gap (10.6% for men and 23.9% for women). Rates peaked at 45.3% among men and 46.1% among women - both at ages 35-39. Compared with a similar study in the rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, peak prevalence occurred at later ages, and HIV prevalence was higher among older adults - with rates above 15% for men and 10% for women through to age 70. High prevalence continues to characterize Southern Africa, and recent evidence confirms that older adults cannot be excluded from policy considerations. The high prevalence among older adults suggests likely HIV infection at older ages. Prevention activities need to expand to older adults to reduce new infections. Treatment will be complicated by increased risk of noncommunicable diseases and by increasing numbers of older people living with HIV.

The More You Learn the Less You Know?: Interpretive Ambiguity across Three Modes of Qualitative Data.

BACKGROUND: Researchers across disciplines face a similar challenge ensuring our methods can give us valid, usable answers to our questions. But what happens when multiple strategies of inquiry give us different answers to the same research question? We explore this question through three different modes of qualitative inquiry--interviews, focus groups, and participant observation - oriented around local attitudes to HIV testing. OBJECTIVE: We introduce the notion of "research awareness" -- the extent to which participants are continuously reminded that they are taking part in a research project, which is a function of the mode of research itself. We hypothesize that as participants' research-awareness decreases across modes, from interviews to focus groups to participant observation, the proportion of statements that conform to officially sanctioned normative discourse about HIV/AIDS will decrease and the proportion expressing non-normative or counter-normative ideas will increase. METHODS: We tabulated positive and negative references to three themes -- knowing one's HIV status, counseling messages, and antiretroviral treatment -- across the three qualitative modes. RESULTS: The distribution is non-uniform, with favorable responses to testing themes predominating in interviews, mixed responses in the focus groups, and negative responses predominating in the observational data. At least 1/3 of references to testing across all three modes, however, do not support officially sanctioned normative discourse. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers who use mixed methods approaches for triangulation should consider the influence of research-awareness on their methods. These situational specifics are crucial for understanding the applicability of research to real life. Substantively, our study revealed a robust level of ambivalence about HIV testing despite normative discourses supporting it at local and global levels.

Biomedical bargains: Negotiating "safe sex" on antiretroviral treatment in rural South Africa.

Wide-scale availability of antiretroviral treatment (ART) has transformed the global landscape for HIV prevention, shifting emphasis away from a strictly behavioral focus on changing sexual practices towards a biomedical approach. Successful ART management is measured by an undetectable viral load, which helps maintain overall health and prevent onward viral transmission. The latter utility of ART, however, must be understood in the context of its implementation. In South Africa, ART has become easily accessible - yet ART knowledge spreads unevenly, while counseling advice and normative expectations and experiences of gender and aging interact to inform sexual practices. As ART enters the sexual lives of middle-aged and older people living with HIV (MOPLH), a population growing rapidly, how has it informed sexual decisions and negotiations? Drawing on in-depth interviews with MOPLH on ART, corroborated with focus group discussions and national ART-related policies and guidelines, we find that for MOPLH, sexual decisions increasingly feature compliance with biomedical directives and concern for ART efficacy. Seeking consensus regarding the biological risks of sex on ART becomes an important feature of sexual negotiations, and anticipated disagreements can pre-empt sexual relationships altogether. We introduce the concept of biomedical bargains to explain what happens when disagreements arise, and the terms of sex are negotiated using competing interpretations of biomedical information. For both men and women, ostensibly gender-neutral biomedical discourses provide new discursive resources and strategies for sexual decisions and negotiations, yet biomedical bargains are still embedded in gender dynamics-women invoke the dangers of jeopardizing treatment efficacy and longevity to insist on condoms or justify abstinence, while men utilize biomedical arguments in an effort to render condomless sex safe. While the full therapeutic benefits of ART are critical for the efficacy and equity of HIV programs, they will nonetheless always affect, and be affected by, social life.

The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note.

OBJECTIVES: South Africa is experiencing both HIV and hypertension epidemics. Data were compiled for a study to identify effects of HIV and high systolic blood pressure on mortality risk among people aged 40-plus in a rural South African area experiencing high prevalence of both conditions. We aim to release the replication data set for this study. DATA DESCRIPTION: The research data comes from the 2010-11 Ha Nakekela (We Care) population-based survey nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) located in the northeast region of South Africa. An age-sex-stratified probability sample was drawn from the AHDSS. The public data set includes information on individual socioeconomic characteristics and measures of HIV status and blood pressure for participants aged 40-plus by 2019. The AHDSS, through its annual surveillance, provided mortality data for nine years subsequent to the survey. These data were converted to person-year observations and linked to the individual-level survey data using participants' AHDSS census identifier. The data can be used to replicate Houle et al. (2022) - which used discrete-time event history models stratified by sex to assess differential mortality risks according to Ha Nakekela measures of HIV-infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure.

Testing differences: the implementation of Western HIV testing norms in sub-Saharan Africa.

This paper examines the implementation of Western HIV testing norms - counselling, consent and confidentiality ('3Cs') - in Malawi, a high prevalence, rural African setting. It considers the differential perspectives of three categories of stakeholders: proponents, implementers and intended beneficiaries. The proponents are members of the 'Counseling and Testing Establishment'. For them, the 3Cs are human rights imports that are worth defending formally, but not always worth prioritising in practice. The implementers are HIV Counsellors. For them, knowledge of the 3Cs as Western biomedical jargon distinguishes them from villagers, but places them in situations where the ethics of testing conflict with their moral concerns for those whom they were trained to help, thus they adapt them in practice. And the intended beneficiaries, the rural Malawians whose rights are meant to be protected by the 3Cs, perceive the norms as protecting themselves as individuals, but as harming rather than benefitting their communities. The case study of Malawi illustrates a tension between Western, individual rights-oriented public health norms and local concerns for the health and wellbeing of the imagined communities that they are meant to benefit.

'Sometimes it is not about men': Gendered and generational discourses of caregiving HIV transmission in a rural South African setting.

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we examine a prominent interpretation of HIV risk in a rural South African setting experiencing a severe HIV epidemic well into older ages: the discourse of caregiving HIV transmission. By caregiving transmission, we refer to HIV infection resulting from caring for family members who are living with HIV and may be sick with AIDS-related illnesses. We draw on individual life history and community focus group interviews with men and women aged 40-80+, as well as interviews with health workers providing HIV counselling and testing services at local health facilities in their communities. We illustrate the social and strategic role caregiving HIV transmission discourses play in re-signifying HIV as a sexless infection for older women, thereby promoting HIV testing as well as blameless acceptance of an HIV diagnosis. We further highlight the role of rural health workers who serve as medical epistemic bricoleurs, vernacularising global HIV counselling and prevention messages by blending ideas of gender, generation, and local lived experiences and practices so that they resonate with community norms, values and understandings. Our study highlights the gendered and generational complexities and challenges experienced by rural South Africans aging in a community over-burdened by an HIV epidemic and AIDS-related mortality.

The end of AIDS? HIV and the new landscape of illness in rural South Africa.

The global HIV/AIDS scientific community has begun to hail the dawn of 'the End of AIDS' with widespread anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and dramatic declines in AIDS-related mortality. Drawing on community focus groups and in-depth individual interviews conducted in rural South Africa, we examine the complex unfolding of the end of AIDS in a hard-hit setting. We find that while widespread ART has led to declines in AIDS-related deaths, stigma persists and is now freshly motivated. We argue that the shifting landscape of illness in the community has produced a new interpretive lens through which to view living with HIV and dying from AIDS. Most adults have one or more chronic illnesses, and ART-managed HIV is now considered a preferred diagnosis because it is seen as easier to manage, more responsive to medication, and less dangerous compared to diseases like cancer, hypertension, and diabetes. Viewed through this comparative lens, dying from AIDS elicits stigmatising individual blame. We find that blame persists despite community acknowledgement of structural barriers to ART adherence. Setting the ending of AIDS within its wider health context sheds light on the complexities of the epidemiological and health transitions underway in much of the developing world.

From "Secret" to "Sensitive Issue": Shifting Ideas About HIV Disclosure Among Middle-Aged and Older Rural South Africans in the Era of Antiretroviral Treatment.

OBJECTIVE: As HIV shifts from "death sentence" to "chronic condition," disclosure of HIV status to intimate partners and family is a significant component of both prevention and treatment adherence. While disclosure is closely considered in many studies, few examine middle-aged and older persons' (age 40+) perspectives or practices. We trace older rural South Africans' views on HIV disclosure to their partners and family members in a high prevalence community over a period of extensive antiretroviral treatment (ART) rollout. METHODS: Community focus group discussions (FGD) conducted in 2013 and 2018 show shifts in older persons' thinking about HIV disclosure. FINDINGS: Our FGD participants saw fewer negative consequences of disclosure in 2018 than in 2013, and highlighted positive outcomes including building trust (partners) as well as greater support for medication collection and adherence (family). DISCUSSION: Particularly as the epidemic ages in South Africa and globally, tracing changes in older persons' views on disclosure is an important step in developing messaging that could enhance treatment as prevention and ART adherence.

"A NOWADAYS DISEASE": HIV/AIDS AND SOCIAL CHANGE IN A RURAL SOUTH AFRICAN COMMUNITY.

Why do some people adapt successfully to change while others do not? We examine this question in the context of a severe HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa, where adapting (or not) to social change has borne life and death consequences. Applying an age-period-cohort lens to the analysis of qualitative life history interviews among middle-aged and older adults, we consider the role of the life course and gendered sexuality in informing Africans' strategies of action, or inaction, and in differentially driving and stalling change in each cohort in response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Our study illuminates the unique challenges of adapting to social change that result from dynamic interactions among aging, prevailing social structures, and a cohort's socio-historical orientation to a new period.

Hypertension incidence among middle-aged and older adults: findings from a 5-year prospective study in rural South Africa, 2010-2015.

OBJECTIVES: There is a scarcity of longitudinal cohort studies in sub-Saharan Africa to understand the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease as a basis for intervention. We estimated incident hypertension and associated sociodemographic, health and behavioural risk factors in a population aged 40 years and older over a 5-year period. DESIGN: We assessed the association between incident hypertension and sociodemographic, health and behavioural factors using Poisson regression. We adjusted for non-response in 2015 using inverse probability sampling weights from a logistic regression including sex and age at baseline. SETTING: Rural South Africa. PARTICIPANTS: We used a population-based cohort of normotensive adults in 2010 who were aged 40 years and older at retest in 2015. RESULTS: Of 676 individuals completing baseline and 5-year follow-up, there were 193 incident cases of hypertension. The overall hypertension incidence rate was 8.374/100 person-years. In multivariable analyses, those who became hypertensive were more likely to be older, have a high waist circumference (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.557, 95% CI: 1.074 to 2.259) and be employed (IRR: 1.579, 95% CI: 1.071 to 2.329) at baseline. Being HIV positive and not on antiretroviral therapy at baseline was associated with lower risk of incident hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Over a 5-year period, 29% of respondents developed hypertension. Given the high burden of hypertension in South Africa, continued longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand the complex interplay of non-communicable and infectious diseases and their underlying and modifiable risk factors to inform public health prevention strategies and programmes.