Results from 22 years of Followup in the Göteborg Randomized Population-Based Prostate Cancer Screening Trial.

PURPOSE: Our goal was to analyze results from 22 years of followup in the Göteborg randomized prostate cancer (PC) screening trial. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In December 1994, 20,000 men born 1930-1944 were randomly extracted from the Swedish population register and were randomized (1:1) into either a screening group (SG) or to a control group (CG). Men in the SG were repeatedly invited for biennial prostate specific antigen testing up to an average age of 69 years. Main endpoints were PC incidence and mortality (intention-to-screen principle). RESULTS: After 22 years, 1,528 men in the SG and 1,124 men in the CG had been diagnosed with PC. In total, 112 PC deaths occurred in the SG and 158 in the CG. Compared with the CG, the SG showed a PC incidence rate ratio (RR) of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.31-1.53) and a PC mortality RR of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.55-0.91). The 22-year cumulative PC mortality rate was 1.55% (95% CI, 1.29-1.86) in the SG and 2.13% (95% CI, 1.83-2.49) in the CG. Correction for nonattendance (Cuzick method) yielded a RR of PC mortality of 0.59 (95% CI, 0.43-0.80). Number needed to invite and number needed to diagnose was estimated to 221 and 9, respectively. PC death risk was increased in the following groups: nontesting men, men entering the program after age 60 and men with >10 years of followup after screening termination. CONCLUSIONS: Prostate specific antigen-based screening substantially decreases PC mortality. However, not attending, starting after age 60 and stopping at age 70 seem to be major pitfalls regarding PC death risk.

Screening and prostate cancer mortality: results of the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) at 13 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: The European Randomised study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) has shown significant reductions in prostate cancer mortality after 9 years and 11 years of follow-up, but screening is controversial because of adverse events such as overdiagnosis. We provide updated results of mortality from prostate cancer with follow-up to 2010, with analyses truncated at 9, 11, and 13 years. METHODS: ERSPC is a multicentre, randomised trial with a predefined centralised database, analysis plan, and core age group (55-69 years), which assesses prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing in eight European countries. Eligible men aged 50-74 years were identified from population registries and randomly assigned by computer generated random numbers to screening or no intervention (control). Investigators were masked to group allocation. The primary outcome was prostate cancer mortality in the core age group. Analysis was by intention to treat. We did a secondary analysis that corrected for selection bias due to non-participation. Only incidence and no mortality data at 9 years' follow-up are reported for the French centres. This study is registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN49127736. FINDINGS: With data truncated at 13 years of follow-up, 7408 prostate cancer cases were diagnosed in the intervention group and 6107 cases in the control group. The rate ratio of prostate cancer incidence between the intervention and control groups was 1·91 (95% CI 1·83-1·99) after 9 years (1·64 [1·58-1·69] including France), 1·66 (1·60-1·73) after 11 years, and 1·57 (1·51-1·62) after 13 years. The rate ratio of prostate cancer mortality was 0·85 (0·70-1·03) after 9 years, 0·78 (0·66-0·91) after 11 years, and 0·79 (0·69-0·91) at 13 years. The absolute risk reduction of death from prostate cancer at 13 years was 0·11 per 1000 person-years or 1·28 per 1000 men randomised, which is equivalent to one prostate cancer death averted per 781 (95% CI 490-1929) men invited for screening or one per 27 (17-66) additional prostate cancer detected. After adjustment for non-participation, the rate ratio of prostate cancer mortality in men screened was 0·73 (95% CI 0·61-0·88). INTERPRETATION: In this update the ERSPC confirms a substantial reduction in prostate cancer mortality attributable to testing of PSA, with a substantially increased absolute effect at 13 years compared with findings after 9 and 11 years. Despite our findings, further quantification of harms and their reduction are still considered a prerequisite for the introduction of populated-based screening. FUNDING: Each centre had its own funding responsibility.

Prostate-cancer mortality at 11 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Several trials evaluating the effect of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing on prostate-cancer mortality have shown conflicting results. We updated prostate-cancer mortality in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer with 2 additional years of follow-up. METHODS: The study involved 182,160 men between the ages of 50 and 74 years at entry, with a predefined core age group of 162,388 men 55 to 69 years of age. The trial was conducted in eight European countries. Men who were randomly assigned to the screening group were offered PSA-based screening, whereas those in the control group were not offered such screening. The primary outcome was mortality from prostate cancer. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 11 years in the core age group, the relative reduction in the risk of death from prostate cancer in the screening group was 21% (rate ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68 to 0.91; P=0.001), and 29% after adjustment for noncompliance. The absolute reduction in mortality in the screening group was 0.10 deaths per 1000 person-years or 1.07 deaths per 1000 men who underwent randomization. The rate ratio for death from prostate cancer during follow-up years 10 and 11 was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.85; P=0.003). To prevent one death from prostate cancer at 11 years of follow-up, 1055 men would need to be invited for screening and 37 cancers would need to be detected. There was no significant between-group difference in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses after 2 additional years of follow-up consolidated our previous finding that PSA-based screening significantly reduced mortality from prostate cancer but did not affect all-cause mortality. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN49127736.).

Effects of surgeon variability on oncologic and functional outcomes in a population-based setting.

BACKGROUND: Oncologic and functional outcomes after radical prostatectomy (RP) can vary between surgeons to a greater extent than is expected by chance. We sought to examine the effects of surgeon variation on functional and oncologic outcomes for patients undergoing RP for prostate cancer in a European center. METHODS: The study comprised 1,280 men who underwent open retropubic RP performed by one of nine surgeons at an academic institution in Sweden between 2001 and 2008. Potency and continence outcomes were measured preoperatively and 18 months postoperatively by patient-administered questionnaires. Biochemical recurrence (BCR) was defined as a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) value > 0.2 ng/mL with at least one confirmatory rise. Multivariable random effect models were used to evaluate heterogeneity between surgeons, adjusting for case mix (age, PSA, pathological stage and grade), year of surgery, and surgical experience. RESULTS: Of 679 men potent at baseline, 647 provided data at 18 months with 122 (19%) reporting potency. We found no evidence for heterogeneity of potency outcomes between surgeons (P = 1). The continence rate for patients at 18 months was 85%, with 836 of the 979 patients who provided data reporting continence. There was statistically significant heterogeneity between surgeons (P = 0.001). We did not find evidence of an association between surgeons' adjusted probabilities of functional recovery and 5-year probability of freedom from BCR. CONCLUSIONS: Our data support previous studies regarding a large heterogeneity among surgeons in continence outcomes for patients undergoing RP. This indicates that some patients are receiving sub-optimal care. Quality assurance measures involving performance feedback, should be considered. When surgeons are aware of their outcomes, they can improve them to provide better care to patients.

Screening and prostate-cancer mortality in a randomized European study.

BACKGROUND: The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer was initiated in the early 1990s to evaluate the effect of screening with prostate-specific-antigen (PSA) testing on death rates from prostate cancer. METHODS: We identified 182,000 men between the ages of 50 and 74 years through registries in seven European countries for inclusion in our study. The men were randomly assigned to a group that was offered PSA screening at an average of once every 4 years or to a control group that did not receive such screening. The predefined core age group for this study included 162,243 men between the ages of 55 and 69 years. The primary outcome was the rate of death from prostate cancer. Mortality follow-up was identical for the two study groups and ended on December 31, 2006. RESULTS: In the screening group, 82% of men accepted at least one offer of screening. During a median follow-up of 9 years, the cumulative incidence of prostate cancer was 8.2% in the screening group and 4.8% in the control group. The rate ratio for death from prostate cancer in the screening group, as compared with the control group, was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65 to 0.98; adjusted P=0.04). The absolute risk difference was 0.71 death per 1000 men. This means that 1410 men would need to be screened and 48 additional cases of prostate cancer would need to be treated to prevent one death from prostate cancer. The analysis of men who were actually screened during the first round (excluding subjects with noncompliance) provided a rate ratio for death from prostate cancer of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: PSA-based screening reduced the rate of death from prostate cancer by 20% but was associated with a high risk of overdiagnosis. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN49127736.)

The absence of voiding symptoms in men with a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration of ≥3.0 ng/mL is an independent risk factor for prostate cancer: results from the Gothenburg Randomized Screening Trial.

UNLABELLED: What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? There are only a few studies and no consensus concerning the relationship between LUTS and prostate cancer. This paper focuses on 2353 men with an elevated PSA level within the Gothenburg Randomized Screening Trial who underwent biopsy and answered questions regarding LUTS. The main conclusion was that the absence of voiding symptoms is an independent risk factor for prostate cancer detection. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether men with obstructive voiding symptoms are at increased risk for being diagnosed with prostate cancer within the Gothenburg randomized population-based prostate cancer screening trial. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: In 1995, 20 000 men born between 1930 and 1944 were randomly selected from the population register and randomized to either a screening group (10 000), invited for total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA) testing every second year until they reached an upper age-limit pending between 67 and 71 years, or to a control group not invited (10 000). Men with a PSA concentration of ≥3.0 ng/mL were offered further examination with prostate biopsies. Immediately before the physician's examination a self-administered, study-specific questionnaire was completed including one question concerning obstructive voiding symptoms. Multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for associations of age, tPSA, free/total PSA (f/tPSA) ratio, prostate volume and the presence of voiding symptoms in prostate cancer risk. A P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Between 1995 and 2010 there were 2590 men who had an elevated PSA concentration (≥3.0 ng/mL) at least once during the study. Of these, 2353 men (91%) accepted further clinical examination with transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS) and prostate biopsies. In all, 633/2353 men had prostate cancer (27%) on biopsy and 1720/2353 men (73%) had a benign pathology. Men with prostate cancer reported a lower frequency of voiding symptoms (24% vs 31%, P < 0.001), independent of age and locally advanced tumours (T2b-T4). In the multivariate logistic regression model increasing age and tPSA were positively associated with prostate cancer while prostate volume, f/tPSA ratio and the presence of voiding symptoms were all inversely associated with the risk of detecting prostate cancer in a screening setting. This inverse association of voiding symptoms and prostate cancer detection was restricted to men with large prostates (>37.8 mL); 15% in men with voiding symptoms vs 22% in asymptomatic men (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The presence of voiding symptoms should not be a decision tool for deciding which men with an elevated PSA concentration should be offered biopsies of the prostate.

No excess mortality after prostate biopsy: results from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: • To assess possible excess mortality associated with prostate biopsy among screening participants of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: • From three centres in the ERSPC (Finland, The Netherlands and Sweden) 50,194 screened men aged 50.2-78.4 years were prospectively followed. A cohort of 12,959 first-time screening-positive men (i.e. with biopsy indication) was compared with another cohort of 37,235 first-time screening-negative men. • Overall mortality rates (i.e. other cause than prostate cancer mortality) were calculated and the 120-day and 1-year cumulative mortality were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, with a log-rank test for statistical significance. • Incidence rate ratios (RR) and statistical significance were evaluated using Poisson regression analyses, adjusting for age, total PSA level, screening centre and whether a biopsy indication was present, or whether a biopsy was actually performed or not. RESULTS: • There was no statistically significant difference in cumulative 120-day other cause mortality between the two groups of men: 0.24% (95% CI, 0.17-0.34) for screening-positive men vs 0.24% (95% CI, 0.20-0.30) for screening-negative men (P= 0.96). This implied no excess mortality for screening-positive men. • Screening-positive men who were not biopsied (n= 1238) had a more than fourfold risk of other cause mortality during the first 120 days compared to screening-negative men: RR, 4.52 (95% CI, 2.63-7.74) (P < 0.001), adjusted for age, whereas men who were actually biopsied (n= 11,721) had half the risk: RR, 0.41 (95% CI, 0.23-0.73) (P= 0.002), adjusted for age. • Only 14/31 (45%) of the screening-positive men who died within 120 days were biopsied and none died as an obvious complication to the biopsy. CONCLUSION: • Prostate biopsy is not associated with excess mortality and fatal complications appear to be very rare.

Mortality results from the Göteborg randomised population-based prostate-cancer screening trial.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is one of the leading causes of death from malignant disease among men in the developed world. One strategy to decrease the risk of death from this disease is screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA); however, the extent of benefit and harm with such screening is under continuous debate. METHODS: In December, 1994, 20,000 men born between 1930 and 1944, randomly sampled from the population register, were randomised by computer in a 1:1 ratio to either a screening group invited for PSA testing every 2 years (n=10,000) or to a control group not invited (n=10,000). Men in the screening group were invited up to the upper age limit (median 69, range 67-71 years) and only men with raised PSA concentrations were offered additional tests such as digital rectal examination and prostate biopsies. The primary endpoint was prostate-cancer specific mortality, analysed according to the intention-to-screen principle. The study is ongoing, with men who have not reached the upper age limit invited for PSA testing. This is the first planned report on cumulative prostate-cancer incidence and mortality calculated up to Dec 31, 2008. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial ISRCTN54449243. FINDINGS: In each group, 48 men were excluded from the analysis because of death or emigration before the randomisation date, or prevalent prostate cancer. In men randomised to screening, 7578 (76%) of 9952 attended at least once. During a median follow-up of 14 years, 1138 men in the screening group and 718 in the control group were diagnosed with prostate cancer, resulting in a cumulative prostate-cancer incidence of 12.7% in the screening group and 8.2% in the control group (hazard ratio 1.64; 95% CI 1.50-1.80; p<0.0001). The absolute cumulative risk reduction of death from prostate cancer at 14 years was 0.40% (95% CI 0.17-0.64), from 0.90% in the control group to 0.50% in the screening group. The rate ratio for death from prostate cancer was 0.56 (95% CI 0.39-0.82; p=0.002) in the screening compared with the control group. The rate ratio of death from prostate cancer for attendees compared with the control group was 0.44 (95% CI 0.28-0.68; p=0.0002). Overall, 293 (95% CI 177-799) men needed to be invited for screening and 12 to be diagnosed to prevent one prostate cancer death. INTERPRETATION: This study shows that prostate cancer mortality was reduced almost by half over 14 years. However, the risk of over-diagnosis is substantial and the number needed to treat is at least as high as in breast-cancer screening programmes. The benefit of prostate-cancer screening compares favourably to other cancer screening programs. FUNDING: The Swedish Cancer Society, the Swedish Research Council, and the National Cancer Institute.

Intervention-related Deaths in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Identification of intervention-related deaths is important for an accurate assessment of the ratio of benefit to harm in screening trials. OBJECTIVE: To investigate intervention-related deaths by study arm in the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening (ERSPC). DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: ERSPC is a multicenter trial initiated in the 1990s to investigate whether screening on the basis of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) can decrease prostate cancer mortality. The present study included men in the core age group (55-69 yr: screening group n = 112 553, control group n = 128 681) with 16-yr follow-up. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Causes of death among men with prostate cancer in ERSPC were predominantly evaluated by independent national committees via review of medical records according to a predefined algorithm. Intervention-related deaths were defined as deaths caused by complications during the screening procedure, treatment, or follow-up. Descriptive statistics were used for the results. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: In total, 34 deaths were determined to be intervention-related, of which 21 were in the screening arm and 13 in the control arm. The overall risk of intervention-related death was 1.41 (95% confidence interval 0.99-1.99) per 10 000 randomized men for both arms combined and varied among centers from 0 to 7.0 per 10 000 randomized men. A limitation of this study is that differences in procedures among centers decreased the comparability of the results. CONCLUSIONS: Intervention-related deaths were rare in ERSPC. Monitoring of intervention-related deaths in screening trials is important for assessment of harms. PATIENT SUMMARY: We investigated deaths due to screening or treatment to assess harm in a trial of prostate cancer screening. Few such deaths were identified.

Post-radical prostatectomy inguinal hernia: a simple surgical intervention can substantially reduce the incidence--results from a prospective randomized trial.

PURPOSE: After radical retropubic prostatectomy a postoperative inguinal hernia develops in 15% to 20% of patients. We investigated whether a simple prophylactic procedure during radical retropubic prostatectomy would reduce this incidence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 294 consecutive patients scheduled for radical retropubic prostatectomy at our clinic were prospectively included in the study. Patients with a present inguinal hernia or a previous inguinal hernia surgery were not included in the analysis. The subjects were randomized for side of prophylactic intervention (left or right). At radical retropubic prostatectomy a nonresorbable figure-of-8 suture was placed lateral to the internal ring of the inguinal canal and the spermatic cord on either side according to outcome of the randomization. Patients were followed at regular followup visits at the clinic. At the end of the study all patients were invited for a final interview and examination by an independent examiner who was unaware of the side of intervention. RESULTS: Of the patients 86% (254) showed up for the final examination. The cumulative inguinal hernia incidence was 3.5% on the intervention side and 9.1% on the control side (log rank Mantel-Cox p = 0.011). There were no serious adverse events, and no increase in postoperative discomfort in the groin and testicular region on the intervention side. The procedure added 5 to 10 minutes to the duration of surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The prophylactic procedure was simple and safe to perform, and it decreased the risk of postoperative inguinal hernia formation by 62%. We believe it should be considered for patients undergoing radical retropubic prostatectomy.

Prostate specific antigen velocity does not aid prostate cancer detection in men with prior negative biopsy.

PURPOSE: Prostate specific antigen velocity has been proposed as a marker to aid in prostate cancer detection. We determined whether prostate specific antigen velocity could predict repeat biopsy results in men with persistently increased prostate specific antigen after initial negative biopsy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified 1,837 men who participated in the Göteborg or Rotterdam section of the European Randomized Screening study of Prostate Cancer and who underwent 1 or more subsequent prostate biopsies after an initial negative finding. We evaluated whether prostate specific antigen velocity improved predictive accuracy beyond that of prostate specific antigen alone. RESULTS: Of the 2,579 repeat biopsies 363 (14%) were positive for prostate cancer, of which 44 (1.7%) were high grade (Gleason score 7 or greater). Prostate specific antigen velocity was statistically associated with cancer risk but had low predictive accuracy (AUC 0.55, p <0.001). There was some evidence that prostate specific antigen velocity improved AUC compared to prostate specific antigen for high grade cancer. However, the small increase in risk associated with high prostate specific antigen velocity (from 1.7% to 2.8% as velocity increased from 0 to 1 ng/ml per year) had questionable clinical relevance. CONCLUSIONS: Men with prior negative biopsy are at lower risk for prostate cancer at subsequent biopsies with high grade disease particularly rare. We found little evidence to support prostate specific antigen velocity to aid in decisions about repeat biopsy for prostate cancer.

Living with a prostate cancer diagnosis: a qualitative 2-year follow-up.

AIM: Previous research has identified how newly diagnosed prostate cancer affects men's daily lives, including daily activities and existential issues. The aim of this qualitative study was to provide information if and how prostate cancer affects men's daily lives 2 years after the diagnosis. METHODS: A second follow-up interview with men who were diagnosed with localized or advanced prostate cancer approximately 18-24 months earlier. Twenty-two men aged 50-85 years participated, data were analyzed by hermeneutical interpretation with Gadamer's approach. RESULTS: The men feel healthy, but prostate cancer affects their daily lives. They experience every day fatigue associated with several changes in life due to age. Three equivalent fusions which influenced the men are: 'Age is claiming its due', 'Living with uncertainty', and 'Strengthen self-esteem'. The unifying fusion is identified as 'Balancing a changed life situation.' CONCLUSIONS: There is need for knowledge and guidance for men with prostate cancer on how to adapt to new life situation decreasing uncertainty and increasing welfare. Men found a sense of pride, despite physical changes, in appreciating independence and close relationships. Value of life was readjusted. The findings indicate harmony in living, enjoying being frank as well as rating the 'little' things.

Prostate cancer.

In developed countries, prostate cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer, and the third most common cause of death from cancer in men. Apart from age and ethnic origin, a positive family history is probably the strongest known risk factor. Clinically, prostate cancer is diagnosed as local or advanced, and treatments range from surveillance to radical local treatment or androgen-deprivation treatment. Androgen deprivation reduces symptoms in about 70-80% of patients with advanced prostate cancer, but most tumours relapse within 2 years to an incurable androgen-independent state. The recorded incidence of prostate cancer has substantially increased in the past two decades, probably because of the introduction of screening with prostate-specific antigen, the use of improved biopsy techniques for diagnosis, and increased public awareness. Trends in mortality from the disease are less clearcut. Mortality changes are not of the same magnitude as the changes in incidence, and in some countries mortality has been stable or even decreased. The disparity between reported incidence and mortality rates leads to the probable conclusion that only a small proportion of diagnosed low-risk prostate cancers will progress to life-threatening disease during the lifetime of the patient.

Gleason score 7 screen-detected prostate cancers initially managed expectantly: outcomes in 50 men.

OBJECTIVE To assess whether men newly diagnosed with Gleason 7 prostate cancer are eligible for active surveillance (AS) instead of radical treatment. AS is an appropriate initial strategy in selected men who are presently diagnosed with prostate cancer, as many tumours will not progress during a patient's lifetime. PATIENTS AND METHODS Cancer-specific-, overall and treatment-free survival were analysed retrospectively in men with Gleason score 7 cancer who were initially managed expectantly. All were screen-detected in four centres of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer. RESULTS In 50 men active therapy was initially withheld if they had Gleason 7 disease; 29 of 50 (58%) would otherwise have been suitable for AS, as they had a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level of < or =10.0 ng/mL, a PSA density of <0.2 ng/mL/mL, stage T1c/T2, and two or fewer positive biopsy-cores; 44 of 50 (88%) had a Gleason score 3 + 4 = 7. The mean (range) age of the men was 69.5 (59.6-76.2) years and the median (interquartile range) follow-up was 2.6 (0.8-5.0) years; the mean American Society of Anesthesiologists score was 1.8. The 6-year cancer-specific survival (nine patients at risk) was 100%, which sharply contrasted with the 68% overall survival. Men alive at the time of analysis had a favourable PSA level and PSA-doubling time. The 6-year treatment-free survival was only 59%, with most patients switching to active therapy, justified on the basis of their PSA level. However, men with otherwise favourable tumour characteristics and a Gleason score of 3 + 4 = 7 remained treatment-free significantly longer than their counterparts with unfavourable other tumour features and a Gleason score of 4 + 3 = 7. CONCLUSION In selected patients with screen-detected Gleason 3 + 4 = 7 prostate cancer, AS might be an option, especially in those with comorbidity and/or a short life-expectancy.

A panel of kallikrein markers can reduce unnecessary biopsy for prostate cancer: data from the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening in Göteborg, Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is widely used to detect prostate cancer. The low positive predictive value of elevated PSA results in large numbers of unnecessary prostate biopsies. We set out to determine whether a multivariable model including four kallikrein forms (total, free, and intact PSA, and human kallikrein 2 (hK2)) could predict prostate biopsy outcome in previously unscreened men with elevated total PSA. METHODS: The study cohort comprised 740 men in Göteborg, Sweden, undergoing biopsy during the first round of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer. We calculated the area-under-the-curve (AUC) for predicting prostate cancer at biopsy. AUCs for a model including age and PSA (the 'laboratory' model) and age, PSA and digital rectal exam (the 'clinical' model) were compared with those for models that also included additional kallikreins. RESULTS: Addition of free and intact PSA and hK2 improved AUC from 0.68 to 0.83 and from 0.72 to 0.84, for the laboratory and clinical models respectively. Using a 20% risk of prostate cancer as the threshold for biopsy would have reduced the number of biopsies by 424 (57%) and missed only 31 out of 152 low-grade and 3 out of 40 high-grade cancers. CONCLUSION: Multiple kallikrein forms measured in blood can predict the result of biopsy in previously unscreened men with elevated PSA. A multivariable model can determine which men should be advised to undergo biopsy and which might be advised to continue screening, but defer biopsy until there was stronger evidence of malignancy.

Eighteen-year follow-up of the Göteborg Randomized Population-based Prostate Cancer Screening Trial: effect of sociodemographic variables on participation, prostate cancer incidence and mortality.

OBJECTIVE: This study examined whether previously reported results, indicating that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening can reduce prostate cancer (PC) mortality regardless of sociodemographic inequality, could be corroborated in an 18 year follow-up. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In 1994, 20,000 men aged 50-64 years were randomized from the Göteborg population register to PSA screening or control (1:1) (study ID: ISRCTN54449243). Men in the screening group (n = 9950) were invited for biennial PSA testing up to the median age of 69 years. Prostate biopsy was recommended for men with PSA ≥2.5 ng/ml. Last follow-up was on 31 December 2012. RESULTS: In the screening group, 77% (7647/9950) attended at least once. After 18 years, 1396 men in the screening group and 962 controls had been diagnosed with PC [hazard ratio 1.51, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.39-1.64]. Cumulative PC mortality was 0.98% (95% CI 0.78-1.22%) in the screening group versus 1.50% (95% CI 1.26-1.79%) in controls, an absolute reduction of 0.52% (95% CI 0.17-0.87%). The rate ratio (RR) for PC death was 0.65 (95% CI 0.49-0.87). To prevent one death from PC, the number needed to invite was 231 and the number needed to diagnose was 10. Systematic PSA screening demonstrated greater benefit in PC mortality for men who started screening at age 55-59 years (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.29-0.78) and men with low education (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.31-0.78). CONCLUSIONS: These data corroborate previous findings that systematic PSA screening reduces PC mortality and suggest that systematic screening may reduce sociodemographic inequality in PC mortality.

Anxiety associated with prostate cancer screening with special reference to men with a positive screening test (elevated PSA) - Results from a prospective, population-based, randomised study.

Levels of anxiety were assessed through questionnaires completed by 1781 screen-positive (PSA > or = 3 ng/mL) men attending the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer in Gothenburg, Sweden. During the first visit (clinical examination, including biopsies), no anxiety whilst awaiting the PSA test results was reported by 66% and 2% reported high levels of anxiety. A multinomial logistics model for repeated measurements, adjusted for age, PSA level, heredity, biopsy finding and urinary symptoms, revealed that anxiety awaiting the PSA was only influenced (increased) by the existence of previously elevated PSA tests (p<.0001). No anxiety associated with biopsy was reported by 45%, while 6% experienced high levels of anxiety. Levels of anxiety decreased significantly with subsequent rounds of examinations (p<0.0001) and with increasing age (p=0.0016). Anxiety associated with prostate cancer screening in general is low to moderate, even in men with elevated PSA, and severe anxiety affects a smaller group of susceptible men.

Individualized screening interval for prostate cancer based on prostate-specific antigen level: results of a prospective, randomized, population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the future cumulative risk of prostate cancer in relation to levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in blood and to determine whether this information could be used to individualize the PSA testing interval. METHODS: The study included 5855 of 9972 men (aged 50-66 years) who accepted an invitation to participate in a prospective, randomized study of early detection for prostate cancer. We used a protocol based on biennial PSA measurements starting from 1995 and 1996. Men with serum PSA levels of 3.0 ng/mL or more were offered prostate biopsies. RESULTS: Among the 5855 men, 539 cases of prostate cancer (9.2%) were detected after a median follow-up of 7.6 years (up to July 1, 2003). Cancer detection rates during the follow-up period in relation to PSA levels were as follows: 0 to 0.49 ng/mL, 0% (0/958); 0.50 to 0.99 ng/mL, 0.9% (17/1992); 1.00 to 1.49 ng/mL, 4.7% (54/1138); 1.50 to 1.99 ng/mL, 12.3% (70/571); 2.00 to 2.49 ng/mL, 21.4% (67/313); 2.50 to 2.99 ng/mL, 25.2% (56/222); 3.00 to 3.99 ng/mL, 33.3% (89/267); 4.00 to 6.99 ng/mL, 38.9% (103/265); 7.00 to 9.99 ng/mL, 50.0% (30/60); and for men with an initial PSA of 10.00 ng/mL or higher, 76.8% (53/69). Not a single case of prostate cancer was detected within 3 years in 2950 men (50.4% of the screened population) with an initial PSA level less than 1 ng/mL. CONCLUSIONS: Retesting intervals should be individualized on the basis of the PSA level, and the large group of men with PSA levels of less than 1 ng/mL can safely be scheduled for a 3-year testing interval.

Role of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Prostate Cancer Screening: A Pilot Study Within the Göteborg Randomised Screening Trial.

BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and targeted biopsies (TB) have shown potential to more accurately detect significant prostate cancer compared with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and systematic biopsies (SB). OBJECTIVE: To compare sequential screening (PSA+MRI) with conventional PSA screening. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Of 384 attendees in the 10th screening round of the Göteborg randomised screening trial, 124 men, median age 69.5 yr, had a PSA of ≥ 1.8 ng/ml and underwent a prebiopsy MRI. Men with suspicious lesions on MRI and/or PSA ≥ 3.0ng/ml were referred for biopsy. SB was performed blinded to MRI results and TB was performed in men with tumour-suspicious findings on MRI. Three screening strategies were compared (PSA ≥ 3.0+SB; PSA ≥ 3.0+MRI+TB and PSA ≥ 1.8+MRI+TB). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Cancer detection rates, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated per screening strategy and compared using McNemar's test. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: In total, 28 cases of prostate cancer were detected, of which 20 were diagnosed in biopsy-naïve men. Both PSA ≥ 3.0+MRI and PSA ≥ 1.8+MRI significantly increased specificity compared with PSA ≥ 3.0+SB (0.92 and 0.79 vs 0.52; p<0.002 for both), while sensitivity was significantly higher for PSA ≥ 1.8+MRI compared with PSA ≥ 3.0+MRI (0.73 vs 0.46, p=0.008). The detection rate of significant cancer was higher with PSA ≥ 1.8+MRI compared with PSA ≥ 3.0+SB (5.9% vs 4.0%), while the detection rate of insignificant cancer was lowered by PSA ≥ 3.0+MRI (0.3% vs 1.2%). The primary limitation of this study is the small sample of men. CONCLUSION: A screening strategy with a lowered PSA cut-off followed by TB in MRI-positive men seems to increase the detection of significant cancers while improving specificity. If replicated, these results may contribute to a paradigm shift in future screening. PATIENT SUMMARY: Major concerns in prostate-specific antigen screening are overdiagnosis and underdiagnosis. We evaluated whether prostate magnetic resonance imaging could improve the balance of benefits to harm in prostate cancer screening screening, and we found a promising potential of using magnetic resonance imaging in addition to prostate-specific antigen.

Absolute Effect of Prostate Cancer Screening: Balance of Benefits and Harms by Center within the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening.

PURPOSE: The balance of benefits and harms in prostate cancer screening has not been sufficiently characterized. We related indicators of mortality reduction and overdetection by center within the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening (ERSPC). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We analyzed the absolute mortality reduction expressed as number needed to invite (NNI = 1/absolute risk reduction; indicating how many men had to be randomized to screening arm to avert a prostate cancer death) for screening and the absolute excess of prostate cancer detection as number needed for overdetection (NNO = 1/absolute excess incidence; indicating the number of men invited per additional prostate cancer case), and compared their relationship across the seven ERSPC centers. RESULTS: Both absolute mortality reduction (NNI) and absolute overdetection (NNO) varied widely between the centers: NNI, 200-7,000 and NNO, 16-69. Extent of overdiagnosis and mortality reduction was closely associated [correlation coefficient, r = 0.76; weighted linear regression coefficient, ß = 33; 95% confidence interval (CI), 5-62; R(2) = 0.72]. For an averted prostate cancer death at 13 years of follow-up, 12 to 36 excess cases had to be detected in various centers. CONCLUSIONS: The differences between the ERSPC centers likely reflect variations in prostate cancer incidence and mortality, as well as in screening protocol and performance. The strong interrelation between the benefits and harms suggests that efforts to maximize the mortality effect are bound to increase overdiagnosis and might be improved by focusing on high-risk populations. The optimal balance between screening intensity and risk of overdiagnosis remains unclear.