Predictive vegetation modeling for conservation: impact of error propagation from digital elevation data.

The effect of digital elevation model (DEM) error on environmental variables, and subsequently on predictive habitat models, has not been explored. Based on an error analysis of a DEM, multiple error realizations of the DEM were created and used to develop both direct and indirect environmental variables for input to predictive habitat models. The study explores the effects of DEM error and the resultant uncertainty of results on typical steps in the modeling procedure for prediction of vegetation species presence/absence. Results indicate that all of these steps and results, including the statistical significance of environmental variables, shapes of species response curves in generalized additive models (GAMs), stepwise model selection, coefficients and standard errors for generalized linear models (GLMs), prediction accuracy (Cohen's kappa and AUC), and spatial extent of predictions, were greatly affected by this type of error. Error in the DEM can affect the reliability of interpretations of model results and level of accuracy in predictions, as well as the spatial extent of the predictions. We suggest that the sensitivity of DEM-derived environmental variables to error in the DEM should be considered before including them in the modeling processes.

Habitat fragmentation and its lasting impact on Earth's ecosystems.

We conducted an analysis of global forest cover to reveal that 70% of remaining forest is within 1 km of the forest's edge, subject to the degrading effects of fragmentation. A synthesis of fragmentation experiments spanning multiple biomes and scales, five continents, and 35 years demonstrates that habitat fragmentation reduces biodiversity by 13 to 75% and impairs key ecosystem functions by decreasing biomass and altering nutrient cycles. Effects are greatest in the smallest and most isolated fragments, and they magnify with the passage of time. These findings indicate an urgent need for conservation and restoration measures to improve landscape connectivity, which will reduce extinction rates and help maintain ecosystem services.