Underdetection of cases of COVID-19 in France threatens epidemic control.

As countries in Europe gradually relaxed lockdown restrictions after the first wave, test-trace-isolate strategies became critical to maintain the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at low levels1,2. Reviewing their shortcomings can provide elements to consider in light of the second wave that is currently underway in Europe. Here we estimate the rate of detection of symptomatic cases of COVID-19 in France after lockdown through the use of virological3 and participatory syndromic4 surveillance data coupled with mathematical transmission models calibrated to regional hospitalizations2. Our findings indicate that around 90,000 symptomatic infections, corresponding to 9 out 10 cases, were not ascertained by the surveillance system in the first 7 weeks after lockdown from 11 May to 28 June 2020, although the test positivity rate did not exceed the 5% recommendation of the World Health Organization (WHO)5. The median detection rate increased from 7% (95% confidence interval, 6-8%) to 38% (35-44%) over time, with large regional variations, owing to a strengthening of the system as well as a decrease in epidemic activity. According to participatory surveillance data, only 31% of individuals with COVID-19-like symptoms consulted a doctor in the study period. This suggests that large numbers of symptomatic cases of COVID-19 did not seek medical advice despite recommendations, as confirmed by serological studies6,7. Encouraging awareness and same-day healthcare-seeking behaviour of suspected cases of COVID-19 is critical to improve detection. However, the capacity of the system remained insufficient even at the low epidemic activity achieved after lockdown, and was predicted to deteriorate rapidly with increasing incidence of COVID-19 cases. Substantially more aggressive, targeted and efficient testing with easier access is required to act as a tool to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The testing strategy will be critical to enable partial lifting of the current restrictive measures in Europe and to avoid a third wave.

An ensemble model based on early predictors to forecast COVID-19 health care demand in France.

Short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic is required to facilitate the planning of COVID-19 health care demand in hospitals. Here, we evaluate the performance of 12 individual models and 19 predictors to anticipate French COVID-19-related health care needs from September 7, 2020, to March 6, 2021. We then build an ensemble model by combining the individual forecasts and retrospectively test this model from March 7, 2021, to July 6, 2021. We find that the inclusion of early predictors (epidemiological, mobility, and meteorological predictors) can halve the rms error for 14-d­ahead forecasts, with epidemiological and mobility predictors contributing the most to the improvement. On average, the ensemble model is the best or second-best model, depending on the evaluation metric. Our approach facilitates the comparison and benchmarking of competing models through their integration in a coherent analytical framework, ensuring that avenues for future improvements can be identified.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Susceptibility to Pseudomonas aeruginosa Infection in Cystic Fibrosis.

QUESTION: Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa) is a common pathogen that contributes to progressive lung disease in Cystic Fibrosis (CF). Genetic factors other than CF-causing CFTR variations contribute approximately 85% of the variation in chronic Pa infection age in CF according to twin studies, but the susceptibility loci remain unknown. Our objective is to advance understanding of the genetic basis of host susceptibility to Pa infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of chronic Pa infection age in 1037 Canadians with CF. We subsequently assessed the genetic correlation between chronic Pa infection age and lung function through polygenic risk score (PRS) analysis and inferred their causal relationship through bi-directional Mendelian Randomization analysis. RESULTS: Two novel genome-wide significant loci with lead SNPs rs62369766 (chr5p12; p-value= 1.98 ×10-8) and rs927553 (chr13q12.12; p-value= 1.91 × 10-8) were associated with chronic Pa infection age. The rs62369766 locus was validated using an independent French cohort (N=501). Furthermore, PRS constructed from CF lung function-associated SNPs was significantly associated with chronic Pa infection age (p-value=0.002). Finally, our analysis presented evidence for a causal effect of lung function on the chronic Pa infection age (Beta=0.782 years, p-value= 4.24 × 10-4). In the reverse direction, we observed a moderate effect (Beta=0.002, p-value=0.012). CONCLUSIONS: We identified two novel loci that are associated with chronic Pa infection age in individuals with CF. Additionally, we provided evidence of common genetic contributors and a potential causal relationship between Pa infection susceptibility and lung function in CF. Therapeutics targeting these genetic factors may delay the onset of chronic infections which accounts for significant remaining morbidity in CF.

Epstein-Barr Virus and immune status imprint the immunogenomics of non-Hodgkin lymphomas occurring in immune-suppressed environments.

Non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHL) commonly occur in immune-deficient (ID) patients, both HIV-infected and transplanted, and are often EBV-driven with cerebral localization, raising the question of tumor immunogenicity, a critical issue for treatment responses. We investigated the immunogenomics of 68 lymphoproliferative disorders from 51 ID (34 posttransplant, 17 HIV+) and 17 immunocompetent patients. Overall, 72% were Large B Cells Lymphoma (LBCL) and 25% were primary central-nervous-system lymphoma (PCNSL) while 40% were EBV-positive. Tumor whole-exome and RNA sequencing, along with a bioinformatics pipeline allowed analysis of tumor mutational burden (TMB), tumor landscape and microenvironment (TME) and prediction of tumor neoepitopes. Both TMB (2.2 vs 3.4/Mb, p=0.001) and neoepitopes numbers (40 vs 200, p=0.00019) were lower in EBVpositive than in EBV-negative NHL, regardless of the immune status. In contrast both EBV and the immune status influenced the tumor mutational profile, with HNRNPF and STAT3 mutations exclusively observed in EBV-positive and ID NHL, respectively. Peripheral blood T-cell responses against tumor neoepitopes were detected in all EBV-negative cases but in only half EBV-positive ones, including responses against IgH-derived MHC-class-II restricted neoepitopes. The TME analysis showed higher CD8 T cell infiltrates in EBVpositive vs EBV-negative NHL, together with a more tolerogenic profile composed of Tregs, type-M2 macrophages and an increased expression of negative immune-regulators. Our results highlight that the immunogenomics of NHL in patients with immunodeficiency primarily relies on the tumor EBV status, while T cell recognition of tumor- and IgH-specific neoepitopes is conserved in EBV-negative patients, offering potential opportunities for future T cell-based immune therapies.

Impact of Chemoprophylaxis on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium ovale Infection Among Civilian Travelers: A Nested Case-Control Study With a Counterfactual Approach on 862 Patients.

BACKGROUND: The impact of chemoprophylaxis targeting Plasmodium falciparum on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium ovale, which may remain quiescent as hypnozoites in the liver, is debated. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control analysis of the outcomes of P. vivax and P. ovale infections in imported malaria cases in France among civilian travelers from 1 January 2006, to 31 December 2017. Using adjusted logistic regression, we assessed the effect of chemoprophylaxis on the incubation period, time from symptoms to diagnosis, management, blood results, symptoms, and hospitalization duration. We analyzed the effect of blood-stage drugs (doxycycline, mefloquine, chloroquine, chloroquine-proguanil) or atovaquone-proguanil on the incubation period. We used a counterfactual approach to ascertain the causal effect of chemoprophylaxis on postinfection characteristics. RESULTS: Among 247 P. vivax- and 615 P. ovale-infected travelers, 30% and 47%, respectively, used chemoprophylaxis, and 7 (3%) and 8 (1%) were severe cases. Chemoprophylaxis users had a greater risk of presenting symptoms >2 months after returning for both species (P. vivax odds ratio [OR], 2.91 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.22-6.95], P = .02; P. ovale OR, 2.28 [95% CI, 1.47-3.53], P < .001). Using drugs only acting on the blood stage was associated with delayed symptom onset after 60 days, while using atovaquone-proguanil was not. CONCLUSIONS: Civilian travelers infected with P. vivax or P. ovale reporting chemoprophylaxis use, especially of blood-stage agents, had a greater risk of delayed onset of illness. The impact of chemoprophylaxis on the outcomes of infection with relapse-causing species calls for new chemoprophylaxis acting against erythrocytic and liver stages.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, weather, vaccination, and variants on COVID-19 transmission across departments in France.

BACKGROUND: Multiple factors shape the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying their relative contributions is key to guide future control strategies. Our objective was to disentangle the individual effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), weather, vaccination, and variants of concern (VOC) on local SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: We developed a log-linear model for the weekly reproduction number (R) of hospital admissions in 92 French metropolitan departments. We leveraged (i) the homogeneity in data collection and NPI definitions across departments, (ii) the spatial heterogeneity in the timing of NPIs, and (iii) an extensive observation period (14 months) covering different weather conditions, VOC proportions, and vaccine coverage levels. FINDINGS: Three lockdowns reduced R by 72.7% (95% CI 71.3-74.1), 70.4% (69.2-71.6) and 60.7% (56.4-64.5), respectively. Curfews implemented at 6/7 pm and 8/9 pm reduced R by 34.3% (27.9-40.2) and 18.9% (12.04-25.3), respectively. School closures reduced R by only 4.9% (2.0-7.8). We estimated that vaccination of the entire population would have reduced R by 71.7% (56.4-81.6), whereas the emergence of VOC (mainly Alpha during the study period) increased transmission by 44.6% (36.1-53.6) compared with the historical variant. Winter weather conditions (lower temperature and absolute humidity) increased R by 42.2% (37.3-47.3) compared to summer weather conditions. Additionally, we explored counterfactual scenarios (absence of VOC or vaccination) to assess their impact on hospital admissions. INTERPRETATION: Our study demonstrates the strong effectiveness of NPIs and vaccination and quantifies the role of weather while adjusting for other confounders. It highlights the importance of retrospective evaluation of interventions to inform future decision-making.

Computerized decision support system (CDSS) use for surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in urinary tract infections in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Hospital-based surveillance of antimicrobial resistance may be irrelevant as a guide to antimicrobial use for urinary tract infections (UTIs) in primary care. OBJECTIVES: To highlight the value of online computerized decision support systems (CDSS) in providing information on the surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in community-acquired UTIs. METHODS: We collected the susceptibility profile for key antibiotics by type of UTI involving Escherichia coli from 2017 to 2020, using queries for UTI (Q-UTI) submitted to a French CDSS. We compared these results with those from the MedQual French surveillance system for community-acquired UTI and the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-NET) for invasive infections. RESULTS: We collected 43 591 Q-UTI, of which 10 192 (23%) involved E. coli: 40% cystitis, 32% male-UTI, and 27% pyelonephritis. Resistance was 41.3% (95% CI, 40.3%-42.2%) for amoxicillin, 16.6% (95% CI, 15.9%-17.3%) for fluoroquinolones, 6.6% (95% CI, 6.1%-7.0%) for third-generation cephalosporins (3GC), and 5.7% (95% CI, 5.2%-6.1%) for aminoglycosides. Resistance to amoxicillin was lower than that reported in MedQual (42.7%, P value = 0.004), and in EARS-NET (55.2%, P value < 0.001). For fluoroquinolones, resistance was higher than in MedQual (12.0%, P value < 0.001) and EARS-NET (15.8%, P value = 0.041). In complicated pyelonephritis and male UTI, fluoroquinolone resistance peaked at ∼20%. For 3GC, all UTI had higher resistance than in MedQual (3.5%, P value < 0.001), but lower than in EARS-NET (9.5%, P value < 0.001). Aminoglycoside resistance was not reported by MedQual, and was lower than in EARS-NET (7.1%, P value < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CDSS can inform prescribers in real-time about the ecology and surveillance of E. coli resistance in community-acquired UTI. In complicated upper UTIs, they can underline the risk of empirical use of fluoroquinolones and suggest preferential use of 3GC.

Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19. METHODS: We used data on the volume of air travel departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of importation per country. We determined the country's capacity to detect and respond to cases with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, using the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries were clustered according to the Chinese regions contributing most to their risk. FINDINGS: Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. We identified three clusters of countries that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and the city of Beijing, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Many countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID-19 importations. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritised in countries with moderate risk that might be ill-prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020, Agence Nationale de la Recherche.

Benefits and risks associated with different uses of the COVID-19 vaccine Vaxzevria: a modelling study, France, May to September 2021.

Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia (TTS) has been identified as a rare adverse event following COVID-19 vaccination with Vaxzevria. We modelled the benefits and risks of Vaxzevria distribution from May to September 2021 in metropolitan France where other vaccines are available, considering French hospitalisation data and European data on TTS. Across different scenarios, benefits of Vaxzevria distribution in people 55 years and older exceeded the risk of death from COVID-19. In young adults, risks were at least of similar magnitude as benefits.

Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study.

BackgroundGiven its high economic and societal cost, policymakers might be reluctant to implement a large-scale lockdown in case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic rebound. They may consider it as a last resort option if alternative control measures fail to reduce transmission.AimWe developed a modelling framework to ascertain the use of lockdown to ensure intensive care unit (ICU) capacity does not exceed a peak target defined by policymakers.MethodsWe used a deterministic compartmental model describing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the trajectories of COVID-19 patients in healthcare settings, accounting for age-specific mixing patterns and an increasing probability of severe outcomes with age. The framework is illustrated in the context of metropolitan France.ResultsThe daily incidence of ICU admissions and the number of occupied ICU beds are the most robust indicators to decide when a lockdown should be triggered. When the doubling time of hospitalisations estimated before lockdown is between 8 and 20 days, lockdown should be enforced when ICU admissions reach 3.0-3.7 and 7.8-9.5 per million for peak targets of 62 and 154 ICU beds per million (4,000 and 10,000 beds for metropolitan France), respectively. When implemented earlier, the lockdown duration required to get back below a desired level is also shorter.ConclusionsWe provide simple indicators and triggers to decide if and when a last-resort lockdown should be implemented to avoid saturation of ICU. These metrics can support the planning and real-time management of successive COVID-19 pandemic waves.