Fourth Dose of BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Setting.

BACKGROUND: With large waves of infection driven by the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), alongside evidence of waning immunity after the booster dose of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccine, several countries have begun giving at-risk persons a fourth vaccine dose. METHODS: To evaluate the early effectiveness of a fourth dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine for the prevention of Covid-19-related outcomes, we analyzed data recorded by the largest health care organization in Israel from January 3 to February 18, 2022. We evaluated the relative effectiveness of a fourth vaccine dose as compared with that of a third dose given at least 4 months earlier among persons 60 years of age or older. We compared outcomes in persons who had received a fourth dose with those in persons who had not, individually matching persons from these two groups with respect to multiple sociodemographic and clinical variables. A sensitivity analysis was performed with the use of parametric Poisson regression. RESULTS: The primary analysis included 182,122 matched pairs. Relative vaccine effectiveness in days 7 to 30 after the fourth dose was estimated to be 45% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44 to 47) against polymerase-chain-reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, 55% (95% CI, 53 to 58) against symptomatic Covid-19, 68% (95% CI, 59 to 74) against Covid-19-related hospitalization, 62% (95% CI, 50 to 74) against severe Covid-19, and 74% (95% CI, 50 to 90) against Covid-19-related death. The corresponding estimates in days 14 to 30 after the fourth dose were 52% (95% CI, 49 to 54), 61% (95% CI, 58 to 64), 72% (95% CI, 63 to 79), 64% (95% CI, 48 to 77), and 76% (95% CI, 48 to 91). In days 7 to 30 after a fourth vaccine dose, the difference in the absolute risk (three doses vs. four doses) was 180.1 cases per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 142.8 to 211.9) for Covid-19-related hospitalization and 68.8 cases per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 48.5 to 91.9) for severe Covid-19. In sensitivity analyses, estimates of relative effectiveness against documented infection were similar to those in the primary analysis. CONCLUSIONS: A fourth dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was effective in reducing the short-term risk of Covid-19-related outcomes among persons who had received a third dose at least 4 months earlier. (Funded by the Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.).

BNT162b2 Vaccine Effectiveness against Omicron in Children 5 to 11 Years of Age.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence is available on the real-world effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and specifically against infection with the omicron variant among children 5 to 11 years of age. METHODS: Using data from the largest health care organization in Israel, we identified a cohort of children 5 to 11 years of age who were vaccinated on or after November 23, 2021, and matched them with unvaccinated controls to estimate the vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 among newly vaccinated children during the omicron wave. Vaccine effectiveness against documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was estimated after the first and second vaccine doses. The cumulative incidence of each outcome in the two study groups through January 7, 2022, was estimated with the use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, and vaccine effectiveness was calculated as 1 minus the risk ratio. Vaccine effectiveness was also estimated in age subgroups. RESULTS: Among 136,127 eligible children who had been vaccinated during the study period, 94,728 were matched with unvaccinated controls. The estimated vaccine effectiveness against documented infection was 17% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7 to 25) at 14 to 27 days after the first dose and 51% (95% CI, 39 to 61) at 7 to 21 days after the second dose. The absolute risk difference between the study groups at days 7 to 21 after the second dose was 1905 events per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 1294 to 2440) for documented infection and 599 events per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 296 to 897) for symptomatic Covid-19. The estimated vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 was 18% (95% CI, -2 to 34) at 14 to 27 days after the first dose and 48% (95% CI, 29 to 63) at 7 to 21 days after the second dose. We observed a trend toward higher vaccine effectiveness in the youngest age group (5 or 6 years of age) than in the oldest age group (10 or 11 years of age). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that as omicron was becoming the dominant variant, two doses of the BNT162b2 messenger RNA vaccine provided moderate protection against documented SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic Covid-19 in children 5 to 11 years of age. (Funded by the European Union through the VERDI project and others.).

Myocarditis after Covid-19 Vaccination in a Large Health Care Organization.

BACKGROUND: Reports have suggested an association between the development of myocarditis and the receipt of messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), but the frequency and severity of myocarditis after vaccination have not been extensively explored. METHODS: We searched the database of Clalit Health Services, the largest health care organization (HCO) in Israel, for diagnoses of myocarditis in patients who had received at least one dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech). The diagnosis of myocarditis was adjudicated by cardiologists using the case definition used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We abstracted the presentation, clinical course, and outcome from the patient's electronic health record. We performed a Kaplan-Meier analysis of the incidence of myocarditis up to 42 days after the first vaccine dose. RESULTS: Among more than 2.5 million vaccinated HCO members who were 16 years of age or older, 54 cases met the criteria for myocarditis. The estimated incidence per 100,000 persons who had received at least one dose of vaccine was 2.13 cases (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.56 to 2.70). The highest incidence of myocarditis (10.69 cases per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 6.93 to 14.46) was reported in male patients between the ages of 16 and 29 years. A total of 76% of cases of myocarditis were described as mild and 22% as intermediate; 1 case was associated with cardiogenic shock. After a median follow-up of 83 days after the onset of myocarditis, 1 patient had been readmitted to the hospital, and 1 had died of an unknown cause after discharge. Of 14 patients who had left ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography during admission, 10 still had such dysfunction at the time of hospital discharge. Of these patients, 5 underwent subsequent testing that revealed normal heart function. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients in a large Israeli health care system who had received at least one dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, the estimated incidence of myocarditis was 2.13 cases per 100,000 persons; the highest incidence was among male patients between the ages of 16 and 29 years. Most cases of myocarditis were mild or moderate in severity. (Funded by the Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.).

BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting.

BACKGROUND: As mass vaccination campaigns against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) commence worldwide, vaccine effectiveness needs to be assessed for a range of outcomes across diverse populations in a noncontrolled setting. In this study, data from Israel's largest health care organization were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. METHODS: All persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. Study outcomes included documented infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), symptomatic Covid-19, Covid-19-related hospitalization, severe illness, and death. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for each outcome as one minus the risk ratio, using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. RESULTS: Each study group included 596,618 persons. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose. Estimated effectiveness in specific subpopulations assessed for documented infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was consistent across age groups, with potentially slightly lower effectiveness in persons with multiple coexisting conditions. CONCLUSIONS: This study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting suggests that the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective for a wide range of Covid-19-related outcomes, a finding consistent with that of the randomized trial.

Safety of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Setting.

BACKGROUND: Preapproval trials showed that messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) had a good safety profile, yet these trials were subject to size and patient-mix limitations. An evaluation of the safety of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine with respect to a broad range of potential adverse events is needed. METHODS: We used data from the largest health care organization in Israel to evaluate the safety of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. For each potential adverse event, in a population of persons with no previous diagnosis of that event, we individually matched vaccinated persons to unvaccinated persons according to sociodemographic and clinical variables. Risk ratios and risk differences at 42 days after vaccination were derived with the use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator. To place these results in context, we performed a similar analysis involving SARS-CoV-2-infected persons matched to uninfected persons. The same adverse events were studied in the vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection analyses. RESULTS: In the vaccination analysis, the vaccinated and control groups each included a mean of 884,828 persons. Vaccination was most strongly associated with an elevated risk of myocarditis (risk ratio, 3.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.55 to 12.44; risk difference, 2.7 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 1.0 to 4.6), lymphadenopathy (risk ratio, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.05 to 2.78; risk difference, 78.4 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 64.1 to 89.3), appendicitis (risk ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.01; risk difference, 5.0 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 0.3 to 9.9), and herpes zoster infection (risk ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.73; risk difference, 15.8 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 8.2 to 24.2). SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a substantially increased risk of myocarditis (risk ratio, 18.28; 95% CI, 3.95 to 25.12; risk difference, 11.0 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 5.6 to 15.8) and of additional serious adverse events, including pericarditis, arrhythmia, deep-vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, and thrombocytopenia. CONCLUSIONS: In this study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting, the BNT162b2 vaccine was not associated with an elevated risk of most of the adverse events examined. The vaccine was associated with an excess risk of myocarditis (1 to 5 events per 100,000 persons). The risk of this potentially serious adverse event and of many other serious adverse events was substantially increased after SARS-CoV-2 infection. (Funded by the Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.).

SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Vaccines.

Viral variants of concern may emerge with dangerous resistance to the immunity generated by the current vaccines to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Moreover, if some variants of concern have increased transmissibility or virulence, the importance of efficient public health measures and vaccination programs will increase. The global response must be both timely and science based.

Effectiveness of a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for preventing severe outcomes in Israel: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Many countries are experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19, driven predominantly by the delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2. In response, these countries are considering the administration of a third dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine as a booster dose to address potential waning immunity over time and reduced effectiveness against the delta variant. We aimed to use the data repositories of Israel's largest health-care organisation to evaluate the effectiveness of a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine for preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS: Using data from Clalit Health Services, which provides mandatory health-care coverage for over half of the Israeli population, individuals receiving a third vaccine dose between July 30, 2020, and Sept 23, 2021, were matched (1:1) to demographically and clinically similar controls who did not receive a third dose. Eligible participants had received the second vaccine dose at least 5 months before the recruitment date, had no previous documented SARS-CoV-2 infection, and had no contact with the health-care system in the 3 days before recruitment. Individuals who are health-care workers, live in long-term care facilities, or are medically confined to their homes were excluded. Primary outcomes were COVID-19-related admission to hospital, severe disease, and COVID-19-related death. The third dose effectiveness for each outcome was estimated as 1 - risk ratio using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. FINDINGS: 1 158 269 individuals were eligible to be included in the third dose group. Following matching, the third dose and control groups each included 728 321 individuals. Participants had a median age of 52 years (IQR 37-68) and 51% were female. The median follow-up time was 13 days (IQR 6-21) in both groups. Vaccine effectiveness evaluated at least 7 days after receipt of the third dose, compared with receiving only two doses at least 5 months ago, was estimated to be 93% (231 events for two doses vs 29 events for three doses; 95% CI 88-97) for admission to hospital, 92% (157 vs 17 events; 82-97) for severe disease, and 81% (44 vs seven events; 59-97) for COVID-19-related death. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective in protecting individuals against severe COVID-19-related outcomes, compared with receiving only two doses at least 5 months ago. FUNDING: The Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.

Using population-level incidence of hepatitis C virus and immigration status for data-driven screening policies: a case study in Israel.

BACKGROUND: Most studies estimate hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease prevalence from convenience samples. Consequently, screening policies may not include those at the highest risk for a new diagnosis. METHODS: Clalit Health Services members aged 25-74 as of 31 December 2009 were included in the study. Rates of testing and new diagnoses of HCV were calculated, and potential risk groups were examined. RESULTS: Of the 2 029 501 included members, those aged 45-54 and immigrants had lower rates of testing (12.5% and 15.6%, respectively), higher rates of testing positive (0.8% and 1.1%, respectively), as well as the highest rates of testing positive among tested (6.1% and 6.9%, respectively). DISCUSSION: In this population-level study, groups more likely to test positive for HCV also had lower rates of testing. Policy makers and clinicians worldwide should consider creating screening policies using on population-based data to maximize the ability to detect and treat incident cases.

Identification of elderly patients at risk for 30-day readmission: Clinical insight beyond big data prediction.

AIM: This study explores the potential benefit of combining clinicians' risk assessments and the automated 30-day readmission prediction model. BACKGROUND: Automated readmission prediction models based on electronic health records are increasingly applied as part of prevention efforts, but their accuracy is moderate. METHODS: This prospective multisource study was based on self-reported surveys of clinicians and data from electronic health records. The survey was performed at 15 internal medicine wards of three general Clalit hospitals between May 2016 and June 2017. We examined the degree of concordance between the Preadmission Readmission Detection Model, clinicians' readmission risk classification and the likelihood of actual readmission. Decision trees were developed to classify patients by readmission risk. RESULTS: A total of 694 surveys were collected for 371 patients. The disagreement between clinicians' risk assessment and the model was 34.5% for nurses and 33.5% for physicians. The decision tree algorithms identified 22% and 9% (based on nurses and physicians, respectively) of the model's low-medium-risk patients as high risk (accuracy 0.8 and 0.76, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Combining the Readmission Model with clinical insight improves the ability to identify high-risk elderly patients. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT: This study provides algorithms for the decision-making process for selecting high-risk readmission patients based on nurses' evaluations.

Prediction of Childhood Obesity from Nationwide Health Records.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate body mass index (BMI) acceleration patterns in children and to develop a prediction model targeted to identify children at high risk for obesity before the critical time window in which the largest increase in BMI percentile occurs. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed electronic health records of children from Israel's largest healthcare provider from 2002 to 2018. Data included demographics, anthropometric measurements, medications, diagnoses, and laboratory tests of children and their families. Obesity was defined as BMI ≥95th percentile for age and sex. To identify the time window in which the largest annual increases in BMI z score occurs during early childhood, we first analyzed childhood BMI acceleration patterns among 417 915 adolescents. Next, we devised a model targeted to identify children at high risk before this time window, predicting obesity at 5-6 years of age based on data from the first 2 years of life of 132 262 children. RESULTS: Retrospective BMI analysis revealed that among adolescents with obesity, the greatest acceleration in BMI z score occurred between 2 and 4 years of age. Our model, validated temporally and geographically, accurately predicted obesity at 5-6 years old (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.803). Discrimination results on subpopulations demonstrated its robustness across the pediatric population. The model's most influential predictors included anthropometric measurements of the child and family. Other impactful predictors included ancestry and pregnancy glucose. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid rise in the prevalence of childhood obesity warrant the development of better prevention strategies. Our model may allow an accurate identification of children at high risk of obesity.

Pediatric-onset Inflammatory Bowel Disease Has Only a Modest Effect on Final Growth: A Report From the epi-IIRN.

OBJECTIVES: The impact of pediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) on growth is debated. We aimed to investigate the effect of IBD on anthropometric measures at young adulthood. METHODS: Children diagnosed with Crohn disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC) (2005-2019) were identified in a national database along with matched non-IBD controls. RESULTS: Overall, 2229 IBD cases (68% CD) were matched to 4338 controls. Only females with CD differed in final height from controls (z scores: -0.37 ±â€Š1.09 vs -0.25 ±â€Š1.06, respectively; P = 0.01), corresponding to a mean difference of 0.7 ±â€Š0.2 cm (all females) and 1.2 ±â€Š0.3 cm in females diagnosed <14 years (P = 0.02). Final height was reduced in both sexes according to adjusted mean height difference analysis (-0.43 cm, 95% confidence interval -0.85 to -0.02; P = 0.04). This difference increased in patients with CD who underwent abdominal surgery (-0.91 cm, 95% confidence interval -1.39 to -0.42; P = 0.01). The proportion of patients with CD achieving final height z scores of -1 and zero differed significantly from controls for both males (71.1% and 34.8% vs 79.1% and 43.0%, respectively; P < 0.001) and females (67.7% and 30.4% vs 79.6%, and 43.3%, respectively; P < 0.001). Patients treated with anti-tumor necrosis factor agents during growth potential had similar height improvement to other regimens. Predominantly, patients with CD were leaner, with a greater proportion of subjects with underweight, compared with controls. CONCLUSIONS: In pediatric-onset IBD, absolute final height was modestly affected by females with CD. Nevertheless, greater proportions of both sexes with early diagnosis of CD failed to achieve normal final height, compared with controls.

Association between Adherence to SSRI Treatment and Mortality among Individuals with Metabolic Syndrome Components.

INTRODUCTION: Depression and anxiety have been associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus and metabolic syndrome, major causes of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The effect of antidepressants in this association is unknown. This study aimed to examine the association between adherence to selective serotonin receptor inhibitors (SSRIs) and all-cause mortality among individuals with metabolic syndrome components (hypertension, obesity, and diabetes mellitus). METHODS: Data on 201 777 patients who were prescribed SSRIs during the years 2008-2011 were analyzed retrospectively. Adherence was measured using prescription purchase records. The moderating effect of SSRI and statin adherence on the association between metabolic syndrome load and mortality hazard risk (HR) during the study period were analyzed. The Cox-proportional hazard model adjusted to background variables was used to this end. RESULTS: During the study period, the maximal metabolic load was associated with mortality HR=1.89 (95% CI: 1.79-2) compared to participants without metabolic risk factors. A slight reduction in mortality HR was demonstrated among those with low and moderate SSRI adherence rates. Adherence to statins was negatively associated with the risk of mortality across all levels of adherence. A significant association (r=0.214, p<0.01) was found between adherence to statins and adherence to SSRIs, with higher rates of adherence to statins across all metabolic load categories. DISCUSSION: While a high metabolic load is associated with a higher risk of mortality, adherence to SSRIs only partially moderated the risk of mortality, in contrast to the protective effect of statins. Adherence differences to statins and SSRIs among individuals prescribed both medications merit further investigation.

Assessing guideline-concordant care for patients with multimorbidity treated in a care management setting.

BACKGROUND: Disease-specific guidelines are not aligned with multimorbidity care complexity. Meeting all guideline-recommended care for multimorbid patients has been estimated but not demonstrated across multiple guidelines. OBJECTIVE: Measure guideline-concordant care for patients with multimorbidity; assess in what types of care and by whom (clinician or patient) deviation from guidelines occurs and evaluate whether patient characteristics are associated with concordance. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of care received over 1 year, conducted across 11 primary care clinics within the context of multimorbidity-focused care management program. Patients were aged 45+ years with more than two common chronic conditions and were sampled based on either being new (≤6 months) or veteran to the program (≥1 year). MEASURES: Three guideline concordance measures were calculated for each patient out of 44 potential guideline-recommended care processes for nine chronic conditions: overall score; referral score (proportion of guideline-recommended care referred) and patient-only score (proportion of referred care completed by patients). Guideline concordance was stratified by care type. RESULTS: 4386 care processes evaluated among 204 patients, mean age = 72.3 years (standard deviation = 9.7). Overall, 79.2% of care was guideline concordant, 87.6% was referred according to guidelines and patients followed 91.4% of referred care. Guideline-concordant care varied across care types. Age, morbidity burden and whether patients were new or veteran to the program were associated with guideline concordance. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with multimorbidity do not receive ~20% of guideline recommendations, mostly due to clinicians not referring care. Determining the types of care for which the greatest deviation from guidelines exists can inform the tailoring of care for multimorbidity patients.

Metformin Treatment and Cancer Risk: Cox Regression Analysis, With Time-Dependent Covariates, of 320,000 Persons With Incident Diabetes Mellitus.

There is conflicting evidence regarding the association between metformin use and cancer risk in diabetic patients. During 2002-2012, we followed a cohort of 315,890 persons aged 21-87 years with incident diabetes who were insured by the largest health maintenance organization in Israel. We used a discrete form of weighted cumulative metformin exposure to evaluate the association of metformin with cancer incidence. This was implemented in a time-dependent covariate Cox model, adjusting for treatment with other glucose-lowering medications, as well as age, sex, ethnic background, socioeconomic status, smoking (for bladder and lung cancer), and parity (for breast cancer). We excluded from the analysis metformin exposure during the year before cancer diagnosis in order to minimize reverse causation of cancer on changes in medication use. Estimated hazard ratios associated with exposure to 1 defined daily dose of metformin over the previous 2-7 years were 0.98 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.82, 1.18) for all-sites cancer (excluding prostate and pancreas), 1.05 (95% CI: 0.67, 1.63) for colon cancer, 0.98 (95% CI: 0.49, 1.97) for bladder cancer, 1.02 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.78) for lung cancer, and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.39) for female breast cancer. Our results do not support an association between metformin treatment and the incidence of major cancers (excluding prostate and pancreas).

Prediction Accuracy With Electronic Medical Records Versus Administrative Claims.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the incremental predictive power of electronic medical record (EMR) data, relative to the information available in more easily accessible and standardized insurance claims data. DATA AND METHODS: Using both EMR and Claims data, we predicted outcomes for 118,510 patients with 144,966 hospitalizations in 8 hospitals, using widely used prediction models. We use cross-validation to prevent overfitting and tested predictive performance on separate data that were not used for model training. MAIN OUTCOMES: We predict 4 binary outcomes: length of stay (≥7 d), death during the index admission, 30-day readmission, and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: We achieve nearly the same prediction accuracy using both EMR and claims data relative to using claims data alone in predicting 30-day readmissions [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC): 0.698 vs. 0.711; positive predictive value (PPV) at top 10% of predicted risk: 37.2% vs. 35.7%], and 1-year mortality (AUC: 0.902 vs. 0.912; PPV: 64.6% vs. 57.6%). EMR data, especially from the first 2 days of the index admission, substantially improved prediction of length of stay (AUC: 0.786 vs. 0.837; PPV: 58.9% vs. 55.5%) and inpatient mortality (AUC: 0.897 vs. 0.950; PPV: 24.3% vs. 14.0%). Results were similar for sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value across alternative cutoffs and for using alternative types of predictive models. CONCLUSION: EMR data are useful in predicting short-term outcomes. However, their incremental value for predicting longer-term outcomes is smaller. Therefore, for interventions that are based on long-term predictions, using more broadly available claims data is equally effective.

Adherence to antidepressant medications is associated with reduced premature mortality in patients with cancer: A nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Depression and anxiety are common in cancer and antidepressants (AD) are efficacious treatment. The relationship between AD adherence and mortality in cancer is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the association between adherence to AD and all-cause mortality in a population-based cohort of patients with cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a 4-year historical prospective cohort study including 42,075 patients with cancer who purchased AD at least once during the study period. Adherence to AD was modeled as nonadherence (<20%), poor (20-50%), moderate (50-80%), and good (>80%) adherence. We conducted multivariable survival analyses adjusted for demographic and clinical variables that may affect mortality. RESULTS: During 1,051,489 person-years at risk follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for mortality were 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.95), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66-0.72), and 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76-0.85) for the poor, moderate, and good adherence groups, respectively, compared to the nonadherent group. Analysis of the entire sample and a subgroup with depression, for cancer subtypes, revealed similar patterns for breast, colon, lung, and prostate cancers, but not for melanoma patients. Multivariate predictors of premature mortality included male gender (HR 1.48 [95% CI: 1.42-1.55]), current/past smoking status (HR 1.1, [95% CI: 1.04-1.15]; P < .0001), low socioeconomic status (HR 1.1, [95% CI: 1.03-1.17]; P < .0001) and more physical comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: The present study is the first to demonstrate that higher adherence to AD is associated with a decrease of all-cause mortality in a large nationwide cohort of cancer patients. Our data add to the pressing need to encourage adherence to AD among cancer patients.

Reasons, perceived outcomes and characteristics of second-opinion seekers: are there differences in private vs. public settings?

BACKGROUND: In most countries, patients can get a second opinion (SO) through public or private healthcare systems. There is lack of data on SO utilization in private vs. public settings. We aim to evaluate the characteristics of people seeking SOs in private vs. public settings, to evaluate their reasons for seeking a SO from a private physician and to compare the perceived outcomes of SOs given in a private system vs. a public system. METHODS: A cross-sectional national telephone survey, using representative sample of the general Israeli population (n = 848, response rate = 62%). SO utilization was defined as seeking an additional clinical opinion from a specialist within the same specialty, on the same medical concern. We modeled SO utilization in a public system vs. a private system by patient characteristics using a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS: 214 of 339 respondents who obtained a SO during the study period, did so in a private practice (63.1%). The main reason for seeking a SO from a private physician rather than a physician in the public system was the assumption that private physicians are more professional (45.7%). However, respondents who obtained a private SO were neither more satisfied from the SO (p = 0.45), nor felt improvement in their perceived clinical outcomes after the SO (p = 0.37). Low self-reported income group, immigrants (immigrated to Israel after 1989) and religious people tended to seek SOs from the public system more than others. CONCLUSIONS: The main reason for seeking a SO from private physicians was the assumption that they are more professional. However, there were no differences in satisfaction from the SO nor perceived clinical improvement. As most of SOs are sought in the private system, patient misconceptions about the private market superiority may lead to ineffective resource usage and increase inequalities in access to SOs. Ways to improve public services should be considered to reduce health inequalities.