Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Continual efforts to eliminate community transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will be needed to prevent additional waves of infection. We explored the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada. METHODS: We developed an age-structured agent-based model of the Canadian population simulating the impact of current and projected levels of public health interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Interventions included case detection and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, physical distancing and community closures, evaluated alone and in combination. RESULTS: Without any interventions, 64.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 63.9%-65.0%) of Canadians will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 (total attack rate) and 3.6% (95% CrI 2.4%-3.8%) of those infected and symptomatic will die. If case detection and contact tracing continued at baseline levels without maintained physical distancing and reimplementation of restrictive measures, this combination brought the total attack rate to 56.1% (95% CrI 0.05%-57.1%), but it dropped to 0.4% (95% CrI 0.03%-23.5%) with enhanced case detection and contact tracing. Combining the latter scenario with maintained physical distancing reduced the total attack rate to 0.2% (95% CrI 0.03%-1.7%) and was the only scenario that consistently kept hospital and intensive care unit bed use under capacity, prevented nearly all deaths and eliminated the epidemic. Extending school closures had minimal effects but did reduce transmission in schools; however, extending closures of workplaces and mixed-age venues markedly reduced attack rates and usually or always eliminated the epidemic under any scenario. INTERPRETATION: Controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission will depend on enhancing and maintaining interventions at both the community and individual levels. Without such interventions, a resurgent epidemic will occur, with the risk of overwhelming our health care systems.

A life satisfaction approach to valuing the impact of health behaviours on subjective well-being.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly, decision-makers are interested in understanding the returns on investments in programs and policies that promote health and prevent chronic diseases. While the costs of these programs are more easily quantified, many of the outcomes they aspire to achieve are intangible and lack obvious market values. The subjective well-being (SWB) method was developed to value a wide range of non-market goods, including health outcomes directly in monetary terms. This paper presents an application of the SWB approach to estimate the monetary value of health-promoting behaviours as the intermediate outcomes of health promotion and chronic disease prevention programs and policies. METHODS: Life satisfaction (LS) was used as a proxy of individuals' SWB. Based on the combined Canadian Community Health Survey 2009-10 data, we modeled LS as a function of income and healthy behaviours, controlling for the socio-demographic factors associated with LS at the individual level using ordinary least squares regression. Equivalent effects of income and healthy behaviours on LS derived from the models allowed us to estimate the trade-off between income and healthy behaviours. RESULTS: We found that income and healthy behaviours were positively associated with LS. The values of increased physical activity, an additional daily serving of fruits/vegetables, and not smoking are respectively $631, $115 and $563 per week. These represent the amounts of additional weekly income required to maintain an individual at their level of LS in the absence of each of these behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: The SWB method holds promise as a method to monetize the value of a range of non-market goods, including healthy behaviours for which market values do not exist. The SWB method can be applied efficiently and cost-effectively using readily available survey data.

Alzheimer's and other dementias in Canada, 2011 to 2031: a microsimulation Population Health Modeling (POHEM) study of projected prevalence, health burden, health services, and caregiving use.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, there is concern that increases in the prevalence of dementia will result in large demands for caregivers and supportive services that will be challenging to address. Previous dementia projections have either been simple extrapolations of prevalence or macrosimulations based on dementia incidence. METHODS: A population-based microsimulation model of Alzheimer's and related dementias (POHEM:Neurological) was created using Canadian demographic data, estimates of dementia incidence, health status (health-related quality of life and mortality risk), health care costs and informal caregiving use. Dementia prevalence and 12 other measures were projected to 2031. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2031, there was a projected two-fold increase in the number of people living with dementia in Canada (1.6-fold increase in prevalence rate). By 2031, the projected informal (unpaid) caregiving for dementia in Canada was two billion hours per year, or 100 h per year per Canadian of working age. CONCLUSIONS: The projected increase in dementia prevalence was largely related to the expected increase in older Canadians, with projections sensitive to changes in the age of dementia onset.

Development and implementation of microsimulation models of neurological conditions.

BACKGROUND: As part of a program of the first National Population Health Study of Neurological Conditions launched in 2009, a series of microsimulation models of neurological conditions (called POHEM-Neurological meta-model) was developed to project health and economic impacts of seven neurological conditions (NCs)-Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, cerebral palsy, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease, traumatic brain injury, and traumatic spinal cord injury-over a 20-year horizon. DATA AND METHODS: The common framework of the seven models allows for dynamic, continuous-time, discrete-event simulation of synthetic large populations in which persons are subject to the risk of developing the NC under study and are assigned a value of functional health and a probability of receiving a caregiver and of entering long-term care. Calculations for transitions are done every year over the life course, and costs are accumulated throughout the life of the synthetic person. The need to reconcile empirical estimates of incidence and mortality with prevalence required implementation of "cure" parameters for two of the NCs. RESULTS: The POHEM-Neurological meta-model integrates the latest Canadian microdata on neurological conditions and satisfies most criteria for validation of microsimulation models, including conceptualization, computer implementation, assessment of output plausibility, and comparison with external data. Limitations include an absence of risk factors and the lack of uncertainty measures. INTERPRETATION: The POHEM-Neurological meta-model has been useful for projections of health and economic impacts of NCs on persons affected and their caregivers, and allows for comparison of specific scenarios to the base case.

Effets projetés des mesures de santé publique non pharmacologiques visant à prévenir la recrudescence de la transmission du SRAS-CoV-2 au Canada.

CONTEXTE: Il faudra prendre des mesures continues contre la transmission communautaire du coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère 2 (SRAS-CoV-2) pour prévenir d'autres vagues d'infection. Nous avons exploré les effets des interventions non pharmacologiques sur la transmission projetée du SRAS-CoV-2 au Canada. MÉTHODES: Nous avons créé un modèle de la population canadienne à base d'agents intégrant l'âge qui simule les effets des mesures de santé publique, selon leur intensité actuelle et projetée, sur la transmission du SRAS-CoV-2. Les mesures étudiées sont le dépistage et l'isolement des cas, la recherche de contacts et la mise en quarantaine, l'éloignement sanitaire et la fermeture des espaces partagés. Nous avons évalué l'effet des mesures prises individuellement et celui des mesures combinées. RÉSULTATS: En l'absence de mesures, 64,6 % (intervalle de crédibilité [ICr] à 95 % : 63,9 %­65,0 %) des Canadiens contracteraient le SRAS-CoV-2 (taux d'attaque global), et 3,6 % (ICr à 95 % 2,4 %­3,8 %) des personnes infectées en mourraient. En poursuivant le dépistage et la recherche de contacts à la même intensité que pendant la période de référence, sans maintenir l'éloignement sanitaire ou refermer certains endroits, le pays connaîtrait un taux d'attaque global de 56,1 % (ICr à 95 % 0,05 %­57,1 %); si ces mesures étaient accrues, le taux d'attaque chuterait à 0,4 % (ICr à 95 % 0,03 %­23,5 %). En combinant ce dernier scénario et le maintien de l'éloignement sanitaire, le taux tomberait à 0,2 % (ICr à 95 % 0,03 %­1,7 %). Ce scénario est le seul qui garderait la demande en soins hospitaliers et intensifs sous la capacité, qui préviendrait presque tous les décès et qui mettrait fin à l'épidémie. La prolongation de la fermeture des écoles aurait un effet minime, mais réduirait la transmission en milieu scolaire. Par contre, la prolongation de la fermeture des lieux de travail et des lieux publics réduirait de manière marquée le taux d'attaque et mettait habituellement ou toujours fin à l'épidémie, selon les différents scénarios simulés. INTERPRÉTATION: Le contrôle de la transmission du SRAS-CoV-2 passera par l'amélioration et le maintien des mesures, tant communautaires qu'individuelles. Autrement, il y aura une recrudescence de l'épidémie, et un risque de surcharger le système de santé.

Disease burden attributable to respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks in long-term care.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease burden is significant among children; however, RSV can also cause excess morbidity and mortality among older adults. Populations in long-term care homes (LTCHs) may be at greater risk of exposure and increased infection severity. The objectives of this article are to identify evidence regarding disease burden and outcome severity attributable to RSV outbreaks among residents and staff in LTCHs; and to highlight reported population and outbreak characteristics. Methods: All types of evidence were eligible for inclusion. Data utilized by included studies was between the end of the 2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic and the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Evidence from the following countries was considered: G7, the European Union, Australia and New Zealand. A total of 167 articles were identified; 58 full texts were analyzed and four sources of evidence were eligible for inclusion. Data related to population characteristics, outbreak type and resident and staff outcomes were manually charted. Results: There is a paucity of evidence sources pertaining to RSV outbreak burden among residents and staff in LTCHs. Outbreak duration ranged from 13 to 21 days. For each outbreak, 4-7 residents had confirmed RSV infection. Attack rates ranged from 12% to 38%. A spectrum of disease attributable to RSV outbreaks in LTCHs was identified, ranging from mild cold-like symptoms to death. Conclusion: Integration of RSV into existing respiratory pathogen surveillance programs is important to characterize susceptibility, transmissibility and virulence of RSV in at-risk populations. There is a need for public health organizations to publish the findings from outbreak investigations to provide evidence to inform RSV outbreak prevention and response in LTCH settings.

Epidemiological characteristics of human infections with avian influenza A(H5N6) virus, China and Laos: A multiple case descriptive analysis, February 2014-June 2023.

Background: The first human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N6) virus was reported in 2014. From then until June 30, 2023, 85 human cases with confirmed A(H5N6) infection have been reported worldwide. Objective: To address the present gap in knowledge of the overall epidemiology of human A(H5N6) infections, the epidemiological characteristics of human infection with A(H5N6) in China from February 2014 to June 2023 are described. Methods: Considering the severity of human infections with A(H5N6) virus (case fatality rate: 39%), the increased frequency of case reports from 2021 to present day, and lack of comprehensive epidemiologic analysis of all cases, we conducted a multiple-case descriptive analysis and a literature review to create an epidemiologic profile of reported human cases. Case data was obtained via a literature search and using official intelligence sources captured by the Public Health Agency of Canada's International Monitoring and Assessment Tool (IMAT), including Event Information Site posts from the World Health Organization. Results: Most human A(H5N6) cases have been reported from China (China: 84; Laos: 1), with severe health outcomes, including hospitalization and death, reported among at-risk populations. The majority (84%) of cases reported contact with birds prior to illness onset. Cases were detected throughout the course of the year, with a slight decrease in illness incidence in the warmer months. Conclusion: As A(H5N6) continues to circulate and cause severe illness, surveillance and prompt information sharing is important for creating and implementing effective public health measures to reduce the likelihood of additional human infections.

Bloodstream Infections in Children Hospitalized for Influenza, the Canadian Immunization Monitoring Program Active.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate the proportion of children hospitalized for influenza whose illness was complicated by bloodstream infection, describe their clinical course, and identify the factors associated with bloodstream infection. METHODS: We performed active surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations among children ≤16 years old at the 12 Canadian Immunization Monitoring Program Active hospitals, from the 2010-2011 to 2020-2021 influenza seasons. Factors associated with bloodstream infection were identified using multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Among 9179 laboratory-confirmed influenza hospital admissions, bloodstream infection occurred in 87 children (0.9%). Streptococcus pyogenes (22%), Staphylococcus aureus (18%) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (17%) were the most common bloodstream infection pathogens identified. Children with cancer [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.78; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.23-5.63], a laboratory-confirmed nonbloodstream bacterial infection (aOR: 14.1; 95% CI: 8.04-24.3) or radiographically-confirmed pneumonia (aOR: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.17-2.97) were more likely to experience a bloodstream infection, whereas children with chronic lung disorders were less likely (aOR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.19-0.80). Disease severity markers such as intensive care unit admission (aOR: 2.11; 95% CI: 1.27-3.46), mechanical ventilation (aOR: 2.84; 95% CI: 1.63-4.80) and longer hospital length of stay (aOR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01-1.03) were associated with bloodstream infection. Bloodstream infection also increased the odds of death (aOR: 13.0; 95% CI: 4.84-29.1) after adjustment for age, influenza virus type and the presence of any at-risk chronic condition. CONCLUSIONS: Bloodstream infections, although infrequent, are associated with intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, increased hospital length of stay and in-hospital mortality, thus requiring increased levels of care among pediatric influenza hospitalizations.

Surveillance of ischemic heart disease should include physician billing claims: population-based evidence from administrative health data across seven Canadian provinces.

BACKGROUND: Canadian provinces and territories routinely collect health information for administrative purposes. This study used Canadian medical and hospital administrative data for population-based surveillance of diagnosed ischemic heart disease (IHD). METHODS: Hospital discharge abstracts and physician billing claims data from seven provinces were analyzed to estimate prevalence and incidence of IHD using three validated algorithms: a) one hospital discharge abstract with an IHD diagnosis or procedure code (1H); b) 1H or at least three physician claims within a one-year period (1H3P) and c) 1H or at least two physician claims within a one-year period (1H2P). Crude and age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates were calculated for Canadian adults aged 20 +. RESULTS: IHD prevalence and incidence varied by province, were consistently higher among males than females, and increased with age. Prevalence and incidence were lower using the 1H method compared to using the 1H2P or 1H3P methods in all provinces studied for all age groups. For instance, in 2006/07, crude prevalence by province ranged from 3.4%-5.5% (1H), from 4.9%-7.7% (1H3P) and from 6.0%-9.2% (1H2P). Similarly, crude incidence by province ranged from 3.7-5.9 per 1,000 (1H), from 5.0-6.9 per 1,000 (1H3P) and from 6.1-7.9 per 1,000 (1H2P). CONCLUSIONS: Study findings show that incidence and prevalence of diagnosed IHD will be underestimated by as much as 50% using inpatient data alone. The addition of physician claims data are needed to better assess the burden of IHD in Canada.

Does the Australian influenza season predict the Canadian influenza season? A qualitative comparison of seasons, 2014-2020.

A commonly held belief by the Canadian media and public is that the Australian influenza season is a fairly reliable indicator of what the Canadian influenza season that follows might be like. However, this claim is not well substantiated with epidemiological evidence. Therefore, the objective of this work was to qualitatively compare the timing of the onset, peak, and intensity of influenza activity, the dominant circulating influenza strains, and the seasonal vaccine and vaccination policies from 2014 to 2020 between Canada and Australia, using a combination of FluNet data and influenza surveillance reports and publications. Across the epidemiological indicators considered, the epidemics between Canada and Australia often differ. While vaccination policies and coverage are similar between the two countries, vaccine composition and vaccine effectiveness estimates also differ. Ultimately, there are many differences and confounding variables between the Australian and Canadian influenza seasons across numerous indicators that preclude the use of the Australian influenza season as the sole predictor of the Canadian influenza season. However, the availability of global surveillance data and robust national and sub-national surveillance data can provide lead time and inform within-season resource and capacity planning, as well as mitigation measures, for seasonal influenza epidemics.

National influenza mid-season report, 2022-2023: A rapid and early epidemic onset.

Canada's 2022-2023 national influenza epidemic was declared in epidemiological week 43 (week ending October 29, 2022), relatively early in comparison to historical seasons. This year marks the return to pre-pandemic-like influenza circulation, following the brief and delayed influenza epidemic declared in the spring of the 2021-2022 season. To date this season, 59,459 detections of influenza have been reported out of 456,536 tests; both values exceeding historical averages. This epidemic is being fundamentally driven by influenza A, with influenza A(H3N2) accounting for 94% of subtyped detections. This season to date has had a significant impact on adolescents and young children, with a high proportion of detections occurring in those aged 0-19 years (42%). Provinces and territories have reported higher than usual influenza-associated hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths in comparison with previous seasons; in particular, paediatric hospitalization incidence was persistently far above historical peak levels for several weeks. The return of seasonal influenza circulation highlights the importance of sustained vigilance with regard to influenza and employment of available mitigation measures, especially of annual seasonal influenza vaccination.

Outcomes of immunocompromised children hospitalized for Influenza, 2010-2021, the Canadian Immunization Monitoring Program Active (IMPACT).

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate immunocompromising conditions and subgroups of immunocompromise as risk factors for severe outcomes among children admitted for influenza. METHODS: We performed active surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations among children ≤16 years old at the 12 Canadian Immunization Monitoring Program Active hospitals, during 2010-2021. Logistic regression analyses were used to compare outcomes between immunocompromised and non-immunocompromised children, and for different subgroups of immunocompromise. The primary outcome was intensive care unit (ICU) admission; the secondary outcomes were mechanical ventilation and death. RESULTS: Among 8982 children, 892 (9.9%) were immunocompromised; these patients were older (median, 5.6 (IQR, 3.1-10.0) vs. 2.4 (1-6) years; p < 0.001) than non-immunocompromised children, had a similar frequency of comorbidities, excluding immunocompromise and/or malignancy (38% (340/892) vs. 40% (3272/8090); p 0.2), but fewer respiratory symptoms, such as respiratory distress (20% (177/892) vs. 42% (3424/8090), p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, immunocompromise (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.19; 95% CI, 0.14-0.25) and its subcategories immunodeficiency (aOR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.10-0.23), immunosuppression (aOR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.12-0.23), chemotherapy (aOR, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.03-0.13), and solid organ transplantation (aOR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.06-0.37) were associated with decreased probability of ICU admission in children admitted for influenza. Immunocompromise was also associated with a decreased probability of mechanical ventilation (aOR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.16-0.38) or death (aOR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.03-0.72). CONCLUSION: Immunocompromised children are overrepresented among hospitalizations for influenza, but have a decreased probability of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and mortality following admission. Admission bias precludes generalizability beyond the hospital setting.

Diagnosed hypertension in Canada: incidence, prevalence and associated mortality.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a leading risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Our objectives were to examine the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed hypertension in Canada and compare mortality among people with and without diagnosed hypertension. METHODS: We obtained data from linked health administrative databases from each province and territory for adults aged 20 years and older. We used a validated case definition to identify people with hypertension diagnosed between 1998/99 and 2007/08. We excluded pregnant women from the analysis. RESULTS: This retrospective population-based study included more than 26 million people. In 2007/08, about 6 million adults (23.0%) were living with diagnosed hypertension and about 418,000 had a new diagnosis. The age-standardized prevalence increased significantly from 12.5% in 1998/99 to 19.6% in 2007/08, and the incidence decreased from 2.7 to 2.4 per 100. Among people aged 60 years and older, the prevalence was higher among women than among men, as was the incidence among people aged 75 years and older. The prevalence and incidence were highest in the Atlantic region. For all age groups, all-cause mortality was higher among adults with diagnosed hypertension than among those without diagnosed hypertension. INTERPRETATION: The overall prevalence of diagnosed hypertension in Canada from 1998 to 2008 was high and increasing, whereas the incidence declined during the same period. These findings highlight the need to continue monitoring the effectiveness of efforts for managing hypertension and to enhance public health programs aimed at preventing hypertension.

Implications of the unexpected persistence of human rhinovirus/enterovirus during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada.

Stringent public health measures imposed across Canada to control the COVID-19 pandemic have nearly suppressed most seasonal respiratory viruses, with the notable exception of human rhinovirus/enterovirus (hRV/EV). Thanks to this unexpected persistence, we highlight that hRV/EV could serve as a sentinel for levels of contact rate in populations to inform on the efficiency, or the need of, public health measures to control the subsequent COVID-19 epidemic, but also for future epidemics from other seasonal or emerging respiratory pathogens.

Antigenic drift and epidemiological severity of seasonal influenza in Canada.

Seasonal influenza epidemics circulate globally every year with varying levels of severity. One of the major drivers of this seasonal variation is thought to be the antigenic drift of influenza viruses, resulting from the accumulation of mutations in viral surface proteins. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between the genetic drift of seasonal influenza viruses (A/H1N1, A/H3N2 and B) and the epidemiological severity of seasonal epidemics within a Canadian context. We obtained hemagglutinin protein sequences collected in Canada between the 2006/2007 and 2019/2020 flu seasons from GISAID and calculated Hamming distances in a sequence-based approach to estimating inter-seasonal antigenic differences. We also gathered epidemiological data on cases, hospitalizations and deaths from national surveillance systems and other official sources, as well as vaccine effectiveness estimates to address potential effect modification. These aggregate measures of disease severity were integrated into a single seasonal severity index. We performed linear regressions of our severity index with respect to the inter-seasonal antigenic distances, controlling for vaccine effectiveness. We did not find any evidence of a statistical relationship between antigenic distance and seasonal influenza severity in Canada. Future studies may need to account for additional factors, such as co-circulation of other respiratory pathogens, population imprinting, cohort effects and environmental parameters, which may drive seasonal influenza severity.

National FluWatch mid-season report, 2021-2022: Sporadic influenza activity returns.

Surveillance for Canada's 2021-2022 seasonal influenza epidemic began in epidemiological week 35 (the week starting August 29, 2021) during the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global public health emergency. In the 2021-2022 surveillance season to date, there has been a return of persistent sporadic influenza activity, and the first influenza-associated hospitalizations since mid-2020 have been reported. However, as of week 52 (week ending 01/01/2022) activity has remained sporadic, and no influenza-confirmed outbreaks or epidemic activity have been detected. There has been a delay or absence in several traditional seasonal influenza milestones, including the declared start of the influenza season, marked by a threshold of 5% positivity, which historically has occurred on average in week 47. The 429 sporadic detections reported in Canada to date have occurred in 31 regions across seven provinces/territories. Nearly half (n=155/335, 46.3%) of reported cases have been in the paediatric (younger than 19 years) population. Three-quarters of the cases were influenza A detections (n=323/429, 75.3%). Of the subtyped influenza A detections, A(H3N2) predominated (n=83/86, 96.5%). Of the 12 viruses characterized by the National Microbiology Laboratory, 11 were seasonal strains. Among the seasonal strains characterized, only one was antigenically similar to the strains recommended for the 2021-2022 Northern Hemisphere vaccine, though all were sensitive to the antivirals, oseltamivir and zanamivir. Until very recently, seasonal influenza epidemics had not been reported since March 2020. Evidence on the re-emergence of seasonal influenza strains in Canada following the A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic shows that influenza A(H3N2) and B epidemics ceased through the 2009-2010 season and second wave of A(H1N1)pdm09, but then re-emerged in subsequent seasons to predominate causing epidemics of higher intensity than in the pre-pandemic seasons. When and where seasonal influenza epidemic activity resumes cannot be predicted, but model-based estimates and historical post-pandemic patterns of intensified epidemics warrant continued vigilance through the usual season and for out-of-season re-emergence. In addition, ongoing population preparedness measures, such as annual influenza vaccination to mitigate the intensity and burden of future seasonal influenza epidemic waves, should continue.

National Influenza Annual Report, Canada, 2021-2022: A brief, late influenza epidemic.

Canadian seasonal influenza circulation had been suppressed since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This suppression was reported globally and generated concern that the return of community influenza circulation could be intense and that co-circulation of influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was possible and potentially severe. Community circulation of influenza returned to Canada during the 2021-2022 influenza season. The influenza epidemic began in week 16 (mid-April 2022) and lasted only nine weeks. This epidemic was driven by influenza A(H3N2) and was exceptionally late in the season, low in intensity and short in length. Community co-circulation of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 was observed in Canada for the first time during the 2021-2022 seasonal influenza epidemic. The unusual characteristics of the 2021-2022 influenza epidemic suggest that a breadth of factors moderate transmission dynamics of the two viruses. Concerns of an intense seasonal influenza epidemic did not come to fruition during the 2021-2022 season; therefore, high influenza susceptibility remains, as does predisposition to larger influenza epidemics. Ongoing circulation of SARS-CoV-2 creates uncertainty about dynamics of future influenza epidemics, but influenza vaccination remains a key public health intervention available to protect Canadians. Public health authorities need to remain vigilant, maintain surveillance and continue to plan for both heightened seasonal influenza circulation and for the potential for endemic co-circulation of influenza and SARS-CoV-2.

FluWatchers: Evaluation of a crowdsourced influenza-like illness surveillance application for Canadian influenza seasons 2015-2016 to 2018-2019.

BACKGROUND: Sentinel influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance is an essential component of a comprehensive influenza surveillance program. Community-based ILI surveillance systems that rely solely on sentinel healthcare practices omit important segments of the population, including those who do not seek medical care. Participatory surveillance, which relies on community participation in surveillance, may address some limitations of traditional ILI systems. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate FluWatchers, a crowdsourced ILI application developed to complement and complete ILI surveillance in Canada. METHODS: Using established frameworks for surveillance evaluations, we assessed the acceptability, reliability, accuracy and usefulness of the FluWatchers system 2015-2016, through 2018-2019. Evaluation indicators were compared against national surveillance indicators of ILI and of laboratory confirmed respiratory virus infections. RESULTS: The acceptability of FluWatchers was demonstrated by growth of 50%-100% in season-over-season participation, and a consistent season-over-season retention of 80%. Reliability was greater for FluWatchers than for our traditional ILI system, although both systems had week-over-week fluctuations in the number of participants responding. FluWatchers' ILI rates had moderate correlation with weekly influenza laboratory detection rates and other winter seasonal respiratory virus detections including respiratory syncytial virus and seasonal coronaviruses. Finally, FluWatchers has demonstrated its usefulness as a source of core FluWatch surveillance information and has the potential to fill data gaps in current programs for influenza surveillance and control. CONCLUSION: FluWatchers is an example of an innovative digital participatory surveillance program that was created to address limitations of traditional ILI surveillance in Canada. It fulfills the surveillance system evaluation criteria of acceptability, reliability, accuracy and usefulness.

Representativeness of the FluWatchers Participatory Disease Surveillance Program 2015-2016 to 2018-2019: How do participants compare with the Canadian population?

BACKGROUND: FluWatch is Canada's national surveillance system that monitors the spread of influenza. Its syndromic surveillance component monitors the spread of influenza-like illness (ILI) in near-real time for signals of unusual or increased activity. Syndromic surveillance data are collected from two main sources: the Sentinel Practitioner ILI Reporting System and FluWatchers.We evaluated the representativeness of the most recent participant population to understand changes in representativeness since 2015, to identify demographic and geographic gaps and correlates/determinants of participation to characterize a typical participant. METHODS: In this serial cross-sectional study, characteristics of participants during four consecutive influenza seasons (2015-2016, 2016-2017, 2017-2018 and 2018-2019) were compared with the 2016 Canadian Census and the 2015-2016, 2016-2017, 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 National Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage Surveys. Associations between demographic factors and the level of user participation were also analyzed among the 2018-2019 FluWatchers population. RESULTS: Infants (0-4 years) and older adults (65 years and older) were under-represented in FluWatchers across all four influenza seasons. Female and urban participants were significantly over-represented. Vaccination coverage remained significantly higher among the FluWatchers populations from the past four influenza seasons across all age groups. Level of participation among FluWatchers was associated with age and vaccination status, but not with sex or geography. Over its four years of implementation, the FluWatchers participant population became more representative of the Canadian population with respect to age and geography (urban/rural and provincial/territorial). CONCLUSION: FluWatchers participants under-represent the tails of Canada's age distribution and over-represent those who engage in health promoting behaviours as indicated by high influenza vaccine coverage, consistent with typical volunteer-based survey response biases. Representativeness would likely improve with targeted recruitment of under-represented groups, such as males, older adults and Canadians living in rural areas.

National Influenza Annual Report, Canada, 2020-2021, in the global context.

During the 2020-2021 Canadian influenza season, no community circulation of influenza occurred. Only 69 positive detections of influenza were reported, and influenza percent positivity did not exceed 0.1%. Influenza indicators were at historical lows compared with the previous six seasons, with no laboratory-confirmed influenza outbreaks or severe outcomes being reported by any of the provinces and territories. Globally, influenza circulation was at historically low levels in both the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres. The decreased influenza activity seen in Canada and globally is concurrent with the implementation of non-pharmaceutical public health measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Although it is difficult to predict when influenza will begin to re-circulate, given the increased COVID-19 vaccination and the relaxation of public health measures, an influenza resurgence can be expected and may be more severe or intense than recent seasons. Influenza vaccination, along with non-pharmaceutical public health measures, continues to remain the best method to prevent the spread and impact of influenza. Public health authorities need to remain vigilant, maintain surveillance and continue to plan for heightened seasonal influenza circulation.