Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Deaths Attributable to Antimicrobial Resistance, Latin America.

Antimicrobial resistance is a pressing global health concern, leading to 4.95 million deaths in 2019. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the lethality attributed to infections caused by multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) in Latin America and the Caribbean. A comprehensive search of major databases retrieved relevant studies from 2000-2022. We included 54 observational studies, primarily from Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia. The most commonly studied organism was methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. The overall unadjusted case fatality rate related to MDROs was 45.0%; higher adjusted lethality was observed in persons infected with MDROs than in those infected with other pathogens (adjusted odds ratio 1.93, 95% CI 1.58-2.37). A higher lethality rate was seen in patients who did not receive appropriate empirical treatment (odds ratio 2.27, 95% CI 1.44-3.56). These findings underscore the increased lethality associated with antimicrobial resistance in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Antimicrobial resistance of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in Latin American countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Detailed information is needed on the dynamic pattern of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Neisseria gonorrhoeae in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). OBJECTIVES: To conduct a systematic review of AMR in N. gonorrhoeae in LAC. METHODS: Electronic searches without language restrictions were conducted in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, EconLIT, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, and Latin American and Caribbean Literature in Health Sciences. Studies were eligible if published between 1 January 2011 and 13 February 2021, conducted in any LAC country (regardless of age, sex and population) and measured frequency and/or patterns of AMR to any antimicrobial in N. gonorrhoeae. The WHO Global Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (WHO-GASP) for LAC countries and Latin American AMR SurveillanceNetwork databases were searched. AMR study quality was evaluated according to WHO recommendations. RESULTS: AMR data for 38, 417 isolates collected in 1990-2018 were included from 31 publications, reporting data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela and WHO-GASP. Resistance to extended-spectrum cephalosporins was infrequent (0.09%-8.5%). Resistance to azithromycin was up to 32% in the published studies and up to 61% in WHO-GASP. Resistance to penicillin, tetracycline and ciprofloxacin was high (17.6%-98%, 20.7%-90% and 5.9%-89%, respectively). Resistance to gentamicin was not reported, and resistance to spectinomycin was reported in one study. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides data on resistance to azithromycin, potentially important given its use as first-line empirical treatment, and indicates the need for improved surveillance of gonococcal AMR in LAC. Trial registration: Registered in PROSPERO, CRD42021253342.

Direct evidence gap on fixed versus adjusted-dose benznidazole for adults with chronic Chagas disease without cardiomyopathy: Systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the comparative efficacy and safety of a fixed dose of benznidazole (BZN) with an adjusted-dose for Trypanosoma cruzi-seropositive adults without cardiomyopathy. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis following Cochrane methods, and the PRISMA-IPD statement for reporting. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) allocating participants to fixed or adjusted doses of BZN for T. cruzi-seropositive adults without cardiomyopathy were included. We searched (December 2021) Cochrane, MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS and trial registries and contacted Chagas experts. Selection, data extraction, risk of bias assessment using the Cochrane tool, and a GRADE summary of finding tables were performed independently by pairs of reviewers. We conducted a random-effects IPD meta-analysis using the one-stage strategy, or, if that was impossible, the two-stage strategy. RESULTS: Five RCTs (1198 patients) were included, none directly comparing fixed with adjusted doses of BZN. Compared to placebo, BZN therapy was strongly associated with negative qPCR and sustainable parasitological clearance regardless of the type of dose and subgroup analysed. For negative qPCR, the fixed/adjusted rate of odds ratios (RORF/A ) was 8.83 (95% CI 1.02-76.48); for sustained parasitological clearance, it was 4.60 (95% CI 0.40-52.51), probably indicating at least non-inferior effect of fixed doses, with no statistically significant interactions by scheme for global and most subgroup estimations. The RORF/A for treatment interruption due to adverse events was 0.44 (95% CI 0.14-1.38), probably indicating no worse tolerance of fixed doses. CONCLUSIONS: We found no direct comparison between fixed and adjusted doses of BZN. However, fixed doses versus placebo are probably not inferior to weight-adjusted doses of BZN versus placebo in terms of parasitological efficacy and safety. Network IPD meta-analysis, through indirect comparisons, may well provide the best possible answers in the near future. REGISTRATION: The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42019120905).

Estimating the Effectiveness of Health Warnings on Cigarette Packaging in Nigeria: A Modeling Study.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco consumption is associated with nearly 30 000 deaths annually in Nigeria alongside other adverse health and economic effects. Our objective was to estimate the health and economic implications of the current cigarette labeling policies (text-only HWs); new health warnings policies in the country (adding graphic health warnings with up to 60% coverage), and plain packaging policy as recommended by the World Health Organization. AIMS AND METHODS: We used a probabilistic state-transition individual microsimulation model, considering natural history, healthcare costs, and quality-of-life losses associated with main tobacco-attributable diseases; and the potential effects of packaging and labeling policies. We used three scenarios: (1) text-only health warnings (HWs) covering 50% of the pack, (2) introduction of graphic HWs of 50% (and later increasing to 80%) of the pack, and (3) plain packaging with HWs covering 80% of the pack. RESULTS: A total of 748 deaths are averted in the current situation; 7478 and 14 208 deaths can be averted with the new policy and with plain packaging, respectively. The number of cardiac, cerebrovascular, and cancer events that could be averted by adopting text and graphic HWs are 3093, 5093, and 1346, respectively; increasing to 5876, 9676, and 2557, respectively, with plain packaging. Up to 251 794 years were lost because of early deaths and disability, and ₦144.6 billion (USD 469 million) in health costs could be saved with HWs covering 50% to 80% of the pack over 10 years. With plain packaging and graphic HWs covering 80% of the package 478,408 years and ₦274.7 billion (USD 895 million) would be saved. CONCLUSIONS: The new cigarette labeling policy in Nigeria may yield significant health and economic benefits over 10 years. Moving the current policy to plain packaging can significantly improve these benefits. IMPLICATIONS: The new cigarette labeling policy that Nigeria is implementing should aim to achieve 100% compliance with its current regulation and the logical next step: Plain packaging with large warnings. The present study adds evidence of the potential health effects and cost savings of these levels of implementation, which is valuable for local policymakers.

Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Peru.

OBJECTIVE: Our study analyzes the cost-effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Peru. METHODS: Using a previously published SVEIR model, we analyzed the impact of a vaccination campaign (2021) from a national healthcare perspective. The primary outcomes were quality adjusted life years (QALYs) lost and total costs. Other outcomes included COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and life years. We applied a discount rate of 3% for health outcomes. We modeled a realistic vaccination campaign in each country (the realistic country-specific campaign). Additionally, we assessed a standard campaign (similar, "typical" for all countries), and an optimized campaign (similar in all countries with higher but plausible population coverage). One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed. FINDINGS: Vaccination was health improving as well as cost-saving in almost all countries and scenarios. Our analysis shows that vaccination in this group of countries prevented 573,141 deaths (508,826 standard; 685,442 optimized) and gained 5.07 million QALYs (4.53 standard; 6.03 optimized). Despite the incremental costs of vaccination campaigns, they had a total net cost saving to the health system of US$16.29 billion (US$16.47 standard; US$18.58 optimized). The realistic (base case) vaccination campaign in Chile was the only scenario, which was not cost saving, but it was still highly cost-effective with an ICER of US$22 per QALY gained. Main findings were robust in the sensitivity analyses. INTERPRETATION: The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in seven Latin American and Caribbean countries -that comprise nearly 80% of the region- was beneficial for population health and was also cost-saving or highly cost-effective.

The health, economic and social burden of smoking in Argentina, and the impact of increasing tobacco taxes in a context of illicit trade.

Tobacco tax increases, the most cost-effective measure in reducing consumption, remain underutilized in low and middle-income countries. This study estimates the health and economic burden of smoking in Argentina and forecasts the benefits of tobacco tax hikes, accounting for the potential effects of illicit trade. Using a probabilistic Markov microsimulation model, this study quantifies smoking-related deaths, health events, and societal costs. The model also estimates the health and economic benefits of different increases in the price of cigarettes through taxes. Annually, smoking causes 45,000 deaths and 221,000 health events in Argentina, costing USD 2782 million in direct medical expenses, USD 1470 million in labor productivity loss costs, and USD 1069 million in informal care costs-totaling 1.2% of the national gross domestic product. Even in a scenario that considers illicit trade of tobacco products, a 50% cigarette price increase through taxes could yield USD 8292 million in total economic benefits accumulated over a decade. Consequently, raising tobacco taxes could significantly reduce the health and economic burdens of smoking in Argentina while increasing fiscal revenue.

Health, economic and social burden of tobacco in Latin America and the expected gains of fully implementing taxes, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments control measures: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the tobacco-attributable burden on disease, medical costs, productivity losses and informal caregiving; and to estimate the health and economic gains that can be achieved if the main tobacco control measures (raising taxes on tobacco, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments) are fully implemented in eight countries that encompass 80% of the Latin American population. DESIGN: Markov probabilistic microsimulation economic model of the natural history, costs and quality of life associated with the main tobacco-related diseases. Model inputs and data on labour productivity, informal caregivers' burden and interventions' effectiveness were obtained through literature review, surveys, civil registrations, vital statistics and hospital databases. Epidemiological and economic data from January to October 2020 were used to populate the model. FINDINGS: In these eight countries, smoking is responsible each year for 351 000 deaths, 2.25 million disease events, 12.2 million healthy years of life lost, US$22.8 billion in direct medical costs, US$16.2 billion in lost productivity and US$10.8 billion in caregiver costs. These economic losses represent 1.4% of countries' aggregated gross domestic products. The full implementation and enforcement of the four strategies: taxes, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments would avert 271 000, 78 000, 71 000 and 39 000 deaths, respectively, in the next 10 years, and result in US$63.8, US$12.3, US$11.4 and US$5.7 billions in economic gains, respectively, on top of the benefits being achieved today by the current level of implementation of these measures. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking represents a substantial burden in Latin America. The full implementation of tobacco control measures could successfully avert deaths and disability, reduce healthcare spending and caregiver and productivity losses, likely resulting in large net economic benefits.

Making visible the cost of informal caregivers' time in Latin America: a case study for major cardiovascular, cancer and respiratory diseases in eight countries.

BACKGROUND: Informal care is a key element of health care and well-being for society, yet it is scarcely visible and rarely studied in health economic evaluations. This study aims to estimate the time use and cost associated with informal care for cardiovascular diseases, pneumonia and ten different cancers in eight Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru). METHODS: We carried out an exhaustive literature review on informal caregivers' time use, focusing on the selected diseases. We developed a survey for professional caregivers and conducted expert interviews to validate this data in the local context. We used an indirect estimate through the interpolation of the available data, for those cases in which we do not found reliable information. We used the proxy good method to estimate the monetary value of the use of time of informal care. National household surveys databases were processed to obtain the average wage per hour of a proxy of informal caregiver. Estimates were expressed in 2020 US dollars. RESULTS: The study estimated approximately 1,900 million hours of informal care annually and $ 4,300 million per year in average informal care time cost for these fifteen diseases and eight countries analyzed. Cardiovascular diseases accounted for an informal care burden that ranged from 374 to 555 h per year, while cancers varied from 512 to 1,825 h per year. The informal care time cost share on GDP varied from 0.26% (Mexico) to 1.38% (Brazil), with an average of 0.82% in the studied American countries. Informal care time cost represents between 16 and 44% of the total economic cost (direct medical and informal care cost) associated with health conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that there is a significant informal care economic burden -frequently overlooked- in different chronic and acute diseases in Latin American countries; and highlights the relevance of including the economic value of informal care in economic evaluations of healthcare.

Neurosurgical simulation models developed in Latin America and the Caribbean: a scoping review.

Simulation training is an educational tool that provides technical and cognitive proficiency in a risk-free environment. Several models have recently been presented in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). However, many of them were presented in non-indexed literature and not included in international reviews. This scoping review aims to describe the simulation models developed in LAC for neurosurgery training. Specifically, it focuses on assessing the models developed in LAC, the simulated neurosurgical procedures, the model's manufacturing costs, and the translational outcomes. Simulation models developed in LAC were considered, with no language or time restriction. Cadaveric, ex vivo, animal, synthetic, and virtual/augmented reality models were included for cranial and spinal procedures. We conducted a review according to the PRISMA-ScR, including international and regional reports from indexed and non-indexed literature. Two independent reviewers screened articles. Conflicts were resolved by a third reviewer using Covidence software. We collected data regarding the country of origin, recreated procedure, type of model, model validity, and manufacturing costs. Upon screening 917 studies, 69 models were developed in LAC. Most of them were developed in Brazil (49.28%). The most common procedures were related to general neurosurgery (20.29%), spine (17.39%), and ventricular neuroendoscopy and cerebrovascular (15.94% both). Synthetic models were the most frequent ones (38.98%). The manufacturing cost ranged from 4.00 to 2005.00 US Dollars. To our knowledge, this is the first scoping review about simulation models in LAC, setting the basis for future research studies. It depicts an increasing number of simulation models in the region, allowing a wide range of neurosurgical training in a resource-limited setting.

[Burden of disease and economic burden attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El SalvadorCarga de morbidade e econômica atribuível ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas em El Salvador]. / Carga de enfermedad y económica atribuible al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en El Salvador.

Objective: To estimate the burden of disease and economic burden attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador. Methods: A comparative risk model was used to estimate the effects on deaths, health events, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and direct medical costs attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Results: A total of 520 deaths (8 per 100 000 individuals), 214 082 health events (3 220 per 100 000 individuals) and 16 643 DALYs could be attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador, representing US$69.35 million in direct medical costs for the year 2020. In particular, type 2 diabetes (T2DM) events attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages could represent more than 20% of total T2DM cases in the country. Conclusion: A high number of deaths, events, and costs could be attributed to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador.

Objetivo: Estimar a carga de morbidade e econômica atribuível ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas em El Salvador. Métodos: Foi utilizado um modelo de risco comparativo para estimar os efeitos sobre óbitos, eventos de saúde, anos perdidos devido a morte prematura ou vividos com incapacidade (AVAI) e custos médicos diretos atribuíveis ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas. Resultados: Um total de 520 mortes (8 por 100 00 indivíduos), 214 082 eventos de saúde (3 220 por 100 000 indivíduos) e 16 643 AVAI podem ser atribuídos ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas em El Salvador, o que representa US$ 69,35 milhões em custos médicos diretos para o ano de 2020. Os eventos de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 (DM2) atribuíveis ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas, em especial, podem representar mais de 20% do total de casos de DM2 no país. Conclusões: Um número elevado de mortes, eventos de saúde e custos pode ser atribuído ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas em El Salvador.

Health-Related Quality of Life in Patients with Breast Cancer in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer in women. It imposes a huge disease burden and a significant impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Our study focused on HRQoL of patients with BC in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). We conducted a systematic review to identify relevant articles published between 2008 and August 2018. We conducted several meta-analyses and subgroup analyses by country, disease stage, and instrument used (Prospective Register Of Systematic Reviews registration number: CRD42018106835). RESULTS: From 2,265 initial references, we finally included 75 articles (8,806 participants) that assessed HRQoL. The European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire C30 and B23 modules (34 studies; 8 countries; 4,866 participants) were the most used instruments, followed by the Short Form 36-item, the abbreviated version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life instrument, and the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - Breast instrument. Only four studies reported specific HRQoL data of patients with metastatic disease. Half the studies were rated as having moderate quality (38/75), and 38% (29/75) as high quality. We identified substantial heterogeneity. As expected, the meta-analyses revealed that patients with metastatic disease reported lower HRQoL values and high symptom burden compared with patients at earlier stages. Similar results can be observed when we compared patients with early breast cancer in active treatment phases versus those in follow-up. CONCLUSION: This study provides a synthesis of breast cancer HRQoL reported in LAC and exposes existing evidence gaps. Patients with BC in active treatment or with metastatic disease had worse HRQoL compared with survivors during the follow-up period. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This systematic review provides an exhaustive synthesis of breast cancer health-related quality of life in women in the Latin American and Caribbean region. Patients with breast cancer in active treatment or with metastatic disease had worse health-related quality of life compared with survivors during the different follow-up periods. This study also shows important evidence and methods gaps that can help inform future research.

Maternal and neonatal data collection systems in low- and middle-income countries for maternal vaccines active safety surveillance systems: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Most post-licensure vaccine pharmacovigilance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are passive reporting systems. These have limited utility for maternal immunization pharmacovigilance in LMIC settings and need to be supplemented with active surveillance. Our study's main objective was to identify existing perinatal data collection systems in LMICs that collect individual information on maternal and neonatal health outcomes and could be developed to inform active safety surveillance of novel vaccines for use during pregnancy. METHODS: A scoping review was performed following the Arksey and O'Malley six-stage approach. We included studies describing electronic or mixed paper-electronic data collection systems in LMICs, including research networks, electronic medical records, and custom software platforms for health information systems. Medline PubMed, EMBASE, Global Health, Cochrane Library, LILACS, Bibliography of Asian Studies (BAS), and CINAHL were searched through August 2019. We also searched grey literature including through Google and websites of existing relevant perinatal data collection systems, as well as contacted authors of key studies and experts in the field to validate the information and identify additional sources of relevant unpublished information. RESULTS: A total of 11,817 records were identified. The full texts of 264 records describing 96 data collection systems were assessed for eligibility. Eight perinatal data collection systems met our inclusion criteria: Global Network's Maternal Newborn Health Registry, International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health; Perinatal Informatic System; Pregnancy Exposure Registry & Birth Defects Surveillance; SmartCare; Open Medical Record System; Open Smart Register Platform and District Health Information Software 2. These selected systems were qualitatively characterized according to seven different domains: governance; system design; system management; data management; data sources, outcomes and data quality. CONCLUSION: This review provides a list of active maternal and neonatal data collection systems in LMICs and their characteristics as well as their outreach, strengths, and limitations. Findings could potentially help further understand where to obtain population-based high-quality information on outcomes to inform the conduct of maternal immunization active vaccine safety surveillance activities and research in LMICs.

Sugar sweetened beverages attributable disease burden and the potential impact of policy interventions: a systematic review of epidemiological and decision models.

BACKGROUND: Around 184,000 deaths per year could be attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption worldwide. Epidemiological and decision models are important tools to estimate disease burden. The purpose of this study was to identify models to assess the burden of diseases attributable to SSBs consumption or the potential impact of health interventions. METHODS: We carried out a systematic review and literature search up to August 2018. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted, and assessed the quality of the included studies through an exhaustive description of each model's features. Discrepancies were solved by consensus. The inclusion criteria were epidemiological or decision models evaluating SSBs health interventions or policies, and descriptive SSBs studies of decision models. Studies published before 2003, cost of illness studies and economic evaluations based on individual patient data were excluded. RESULTS: We identified a total of 2766 references. Out of the 40 included studies, 45% were models specifically developed to address SSBs, 82.5% were conducted in high-income countries and 57.5% considered a health system perspective. The most common model's outcomes were obesity/overweight (82.5%), diabetes (72.5%), cardiovascular disease (60%), mortality (52.5%), direct medical costs (57.35%), and healthy years -DALYs/QALYs- (40%) attributable to SSBs. 67.5% of the studies modelled the effect of SSBs on the outcomes either entirely through BMI or through BMI plus diabetes independently. Models were usually populated with inputs from national surveys -such us obesity prevalence, SSBs consumption-; and vital statistics (67.5%). Only 55% reported results by gender and 40% included children; 30% presented results by income level, and 25% by selected vulnerable groups. Most of the models evaluated at least one policy intervention to reduce SSBs consumption (92.5%), taxes being the most frequent strategy (75%). CONCLUSIONS: There is a wide range of modelling approaches of different complexity and information requirements to evaluate the burden of disease attributable to SSBs. Most of them take into account the impact on obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, mortality, and economic impact. Incorporating these tools to different countries could result in useful information for decision makers and the general population to promote a deeper implementation of policies to reduce SSBs consumption. PROSPERO PROTOCOL NUMBER: CRD42020121025 .

Smoke-Free Air Interventions in Seven Latin American Countries: Health and Financial Impact to Inform Evidence-Based Policy Implementation.

INTRODUCTION: Disease burden due to tobacco smoking in Latin America remains very high. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impact of implementing smoke-free air interventions on health and cost outcomes in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, using a mathematical model. AIMS AND METHODS: We built a probabilistic Monte Carlo microsimulation model, considering natural history, direct health system costs, and quality of life impairment associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes on an annual basis to obtain aggregated 10-year population health outcomes (deaths and events) and costs. To populate the model, we completed an overview and systematic review of the literature. Also, we calibrated the model comparing the predicted disease-specific mortality rates with those coming from local national statistics. RESULTS: With current policies, for the next 10 years, a total of 137 121 deaths and 917 210 events could be averted, adding 3.84 million years of healthy life and saving USD 9.2 billion in these seven countries. If countries fully implemented smoke-free air strategies, it would be possible to avert nearly 180 000 premature deaths and 1.2 million events, adding 5 million healthy years of life and saving USD 13.1 billion in direct healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the smoke-free air strategy would substantially reduce deaths, diseases, and health care costs attributed to smoking. Latin American countries should not delay the full implementation of this strategy. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco smoking is the single most preventable and premature mortality cause in the world. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, supported by the World Health Organization, introduced a package of evidence-based measures for tobacco control. This study adds quality evidence on the potential health effects and savings of implementing smoke-free air policies in countries representing almost 80% of the Latin America and the Caribbean population.

Health and Economic Impact of Health Warnings and Plain Tobacco Packaging in Seven Latin American Countries: Results of a Simulation Model.

INTRODUCTION: The burden of disease attributable to tobacco use in Latin America is very high. Our objective was to evaluate the 10-year potential impact of current legislation related to cigarette packaging and warnings and expected effects of moving to a higher level of strategies implementing cigarette plain packaging on health and cost outcomes in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, using a microsimulation model. AIMS AND METHODS: We used a probabilistic state-transition microsimulation model, considering natural history, costs, and quality of life losses associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed up individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes annually to obtain aggregated long-term population health outcomes and costs. We performed a literature review to estimate effects and analyzed studies and information from ministries, relevant organizations, and national surveys. We calibrated the model comparing the predicted disease-specific mortality rates with local statistics. RESULTS: Current graphic warnings already in place in each country could avert, during 10 years, 69 369 deaths and 638 295 disease events, adding 1.2 million years of healthy life and saving USD 5.3 billion in the seven countries. If these countries implemented plain packaging strategies, additional 155 857 premature deaths and 4 133 858 events could be averted, adding 4.1 million healthy years of life and saving USD 13.6 billion in direct health care expenses of diseases attributable to smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Latin American countries should not delay the implementation of this strategy that will alleviate part of the enormous health and financial burden that tobacco poses on their economies and health care systems. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco smoking is the single most preventable and premature mortality cause in the world. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, supported by the World Health Organization, introduced a package of evidence-based measures for tobacco control. This study adds evidence on the potential health effects and savings of implementing cigarette plain packaging in countries representing almost 80% of the Latin American population; findings are valuable resources for policy makers in the region.

Association between drinking patterns and cardiovascular risk: a population-based study in the Southern Cone of Latin America.

BACKGROUND: Using data from general adult population, this study aims to describe epidemiology of alcohol consumption patterns and their association with cardiovascular risk. METHODS: CESCAS I is a population-based study from four mid-sized cities in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay. Associations between diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and history of CVD and drinking patterns were assessed using crude prevalence odds ratios (ORs) and adjusted OR. RESULTS: A total of 37.2% of the studied population never drank and 18.3% reported to be former drinkers. Among current drinkers, moderate drinking was the most frequent pattern (24.2%). For women with light and moderate consumption, the odds of having >20% CVD risk was ~40% lower than that of never drinkers. The odds of having a history of CVD was 50% lower in those with moderate consumption. For men with heavy consumption, the odds of having >20% CVD risk was about twice as high as for never drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: A harmful association was observed between heavy drinking and having >20% CVD risk for men. However, for women, an apparently protective association was observed between light and moderate drinking and having >20% CVD risk and between moderate drinking and having a history of CVD.

Quality of evidence matters: is it well reported and interpreted in infertility journals?

PURPOSE: To evaluate if the authors of published systematic reviews (SRs) reported the level of quality of evidence (QoE) in the top 5 impact factor infertility journals and to analyze if they used an appropriate wording to describe it. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study. We searched in PubMed for SRs published in 2017 in the five infertility journals with the highest impact factor. We analyzed the proportion of SRs published in the top 5 impact factor infertility journals that reported the SRs' QoE, and the proportion of those SRs in which authors used consistent wording to describe QoE and magnitude of effect. RESULTS: The QoE was reported in only 21.4% of the 42 included SRs and in less than 10% of the abstracts. Although we did not find important differences in the report of QoE of those that showed statistically significant differences or not, p value was associated with the wording chosen by the authors. We found inconsistent reporting of the size the effect estimate in 54.8% (23/42) and in the level of QoE in 92.9% (39/42). Whereas the effect size was more consistently expressed in studies with statistically significant findings, QoE was better expressed in those cases in which the p value was over 0.05. CONCLUSION: We found that in 2017, less than 25% of the authors reported the overall QoE when publishing SRs. Authors focused more on statistical significance as a binary concept than on methodological limitations like study design, imprecision, indirectness, inconsistency, and publication bias. Authors should make efforts to report the QoE and interpret results accordingly.

Interventions for the control of Aedes aegypti in Latin America and the Caribbean: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness and degree of implementation of interventions for the control of Aedes aegypti in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) as reported in scientific literature. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, SOCINDEX, and LILACS, for experimental and observational studies, economic assessments and qualitative experiences carried out in LAC from 2000 to 2016. We assessed incidence and morbimortality of Aedes aegypti-related diseases and entomological indices: Breteau (containers), House, and Pupae per Person. We used GRADE methodology for assessing quality of evidence. RESULTS: Of 1826 records retrieved, 75 were included and 9 cluster randomised clinical trials could be meta-analysed. We did not identify any intervention supported by a high certainty of evidence. In consistency with qualitative evidence, health education and community engagement probably reduces the entomological indices, as do the use of insecticide-treated materials, indoor residual spraying and the management of containers. There is low certainty of evidence supporting the use of ovitraps or larvitraps, and the integrated epidemiological surveillance strategy to improve indices and reduce the incidence of dengue. The reported degree of implementation of these vector control interventions was variable and most did not extend to whole cities and were not sustained beyond 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: We found a general lack of evidence on effectiveness of vector control in the region, despite a few interventions that showed moderate to low certainty of evidence. It is important to engage and educate the community, apart from achieving the implementation of integrated actions between the health and other sectors at national and regional level.

OBJECTIF: Déterminer l'efficacité et le degré d'implémentation des interventions de lutte contre Aedes aegypti en Amérique latine et dans les Caraïbes (ALC), tels que décrits dans la littérature scientifique. MÉTHODES: Nous avons effectué des recherches dans MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, SOCINDEX et LILACS pour des études expérimentales et d'observation, des évaluations économiques et des expériences qualitatives réalisées dans la région ALC de 2000 à 2016. Nous avons évalué l'incidence et la morbimortalité des maladies liées à Aedes aegypti et les indices entomologiques: Breteau (conteneurs), Maison et Pupe par Personne. Nous avons utilisé la méthodologie GRADE pour évaluer la qualité des données. RÉSULTATS: Sur 1.826 articles retrouvés, 75 ont été inclus et 9 essais cliniques randomisés en grappes ont pu être méta-analysés. Nous n'avons identifié aucune intervention étayée par une certitude élevée. De manière cohérente avec les preuves qualitatives, l'éducation pour la santé et la participation de la communauté réduisent probablement les indices entomologiques, de même que l'utilisation de matériaux traités à l'insecticide, la pulvérisation de résidus à l'intérieur et la gestion des conteneurs. Il existe peu de certitude quant aux données soutenant l'utilisation des ovitraps ou des larvitraps et de la stratégie de surveillance épidémiologique intégrée visant à améliorer les indices et à réduire l'incidence de la dengue. Le degré d'implémentation rapporté pour ces interventions de lutte antivectorielle était variable et la plupart ne s'étendaient pas à l'entièreté des villes et ne duraient pas plus de deux ans. CONCLUSIONS: Nous avons constaté un manque général de preuves sur l'efficacité de la lutte antivectorielle dans la région, malgré quelques interventions montrant une certitude modérée à faible. Il est important d'impliquer et d'éduquer la communauté, outre la mise en œuvre d'actions intégrées entre le secteur de la santé et d'autres secteurs aux niveaux national et régional.

Omega 3 fatty acid supplementation after myocardial infarction: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this review is to examine the effect of Omega-3 Fatty acids on mortality, morbidity, and adverse events in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS: Data Sources: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library through May 2018. STUDY SELECTION: Randomized Controlled trials (RCT). Certainty of evidence was assessed with the GRADE system. INTERVENTIONS: omega 3 fatty acids against placebo or no treatment. Primary and secondary outcomes: All-cause death, cardiovascular death, new AMI, stroke, need for therapeutic angioplasty or By-pass, new diagnosis of cancer and incidence of adverse events. RESULTS: For the efficacy endpoints we included 10 RCT (24,414 patients). Omega 3 fatty acids probably make little or no difference to all-cause mortality (4 studies 9141 patients RR 1.06 - CI95% 0.90 to 1.27, moderate certainty), cardiovascular mortality (3 studies 4304 patients RR 0.93 - CI95% 0.63 to 1.37, moderate certainty), new AMI (RR 1.24 CI95% 0.71 to 2.14 - moderate certainty), any cardiovascular event (RR 0.95 95%CI 0.86 to 1.05; low certainty due to risk of bias and imprecision), and stroke (RR 1.2 95%CCI 0,66-2,19 - moderate certainty). Regarding adverse events, we are uncertain if Omega 3 fatty acids improve/reduce non severe adverse events (RR 1.39 95% CI 0.36 to 5.34; very low certainty). There is probably little or no difference in the outcome suspension due to adverse events (RR 1.19 CI 95% 0.97 to 1.47; moderate certainty). CONCLUSIONS: For adult patients with AMI, omega 3 fatty-acids probably yield no benefit to patient important outcomes.

Sequential inactivated (IPV) and live oral (OPV) poliovirus vaccines for preventing poliomyelitis.

BACKGROUND: Poliomyelitis mainly affects unvaccinated children under five years of age, causing irreversible paralysis or even death. The oral polio vaccine (OPV) contains live attenuated virus, which can, in rare cases, cause a paralysis known as vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP), and also vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) due to acquired neurovirulence after prolonged duration of replication. The incidence of poliomyelitis caused by wild polio virus (WPV) has declined dramatically since the introduction of OPV and later the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), however, the cases of paralysis linked to the OPV are currently more frequent than those related to the WPV. Therefore, in 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended at least one IPV dose preceding routine immunisation with OPV to reduce VAPPs and VDPVs until polio could be eradicated. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness, safety, and immunogenicity of sequential IPV-OPV immunisation schemes compared to either OPV or IPV alone. SEARCH METHODS: In May 2019 we searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, 14 other databases, three trials registers and reports of adverse effects on four web sites. We also searched the references of identified studies, relevant reviews and contacted authors to identify additional references. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs, controlled before-after studies, nationwide uncontrolled before-after studies (UBAs), interrupted time series (ITS) and controlled ITS comparing sequential IPV-OPV schedules (one or more IPV doses followed by one or more OPV doses) with IPV alone, OPV alone or non-sequential IPV-OPV combinations. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. MAIN RESULTS: We included 21 studies: 16 RCTs involving 6407 healthy infants (age range 96 to 975 days, mean 382 days), one ITS with 28,330 infants and four nationwide studies (two ITS, two UBA). Ten RCTs were conducted in high-income countries; five in the USA, two in the UK, and one each in Chile, Israel, and Oman. The remaining six RCTs were conducted in middle-income countries; China, Bangladesh, Guatemala, India, and Thailand. We rated all included RCTs at low or unclear risk of bias for randomisation domains, most at high or unclear risk of attrition bias, and half at high or unclear risk for conflict of interests. Almost all RCTs were at low risk for the remaining domains. ITSs and UBAs were mainly considered at low risk of bias for most domains. IPV-OPV versus OPV It is uncertain if an IPV followed by OPV schedule is better than OPV alone at reducing the number of WPV cases (very low-certainty evidence); however, it may reduce VAPP cases by 54% to 100% (three nationwide studies; low-certainty evidence). There is little or no difference in vaccination coverage between IPV-OPV and OPV-only schedules (risk ratio (RR) 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 1.06; 1 ITS study; low-certainty evidence). Similarly, there is little or no difference between the two schedule types for the number of serious adverse events (SAEs) (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.70; 4 studies, 1948 participants; low-certainty evidence); or the number of people with protective humoral response P1 (moderate-certainty evidence), P2 (for the most studied schedule; two IPV doses followed by OPV; low-certainty evidence), and P3 (low-certainty evidence). Two IPV doses followed by bivalent OPV (IIbO) may reduce P2 neutralising antibodies compared to trivalent OPV (moderate-certainty evidence), but may make little or no difference to P1 or P2 neutralising antibodies following an IIO schedule or OPV alone (low-certainty evidence). Both IIO and IIbO schedules may increase P3 neutralising antibodies compared to OPV (moderate-certainty evidence). It may also lead to lower mucosal immunity given increased faecal excretion of P1 (low-certainty evidence), P2 and P3 (moderate-certainty evidence) after OPV challenge. IPV-OPV versus IPV It is uncertain if IPV-OPV is more effective than IPV alone at reducing the number of WPV cases (very low-certainty evidence). There were no data regarding VAPP cases. There is no clear evidence of a difference between IPV-OPV and OPV schedules for the number of people with protective humoral response (low- and moderate-certainty evidence). IPV-OPV schedules may increase mean titres of P1 neutralising antibodies compared to OPV alone (low- and moderate-certainty evidence), but the effect on P2 and P3 titres is not clear (very low- and moderate-certainty evidence). IPV-OPV probably reduces the number of people with P3 poliovirus faecal excretion after OPV challenge with IIO and IIOO sequences (moderate-certainty evidence), and may reduce the number with P2 (low-certainty evidence), but not with P1 (very low-certainty evidence). There may be little or no difference between the schedules in number of SAEs (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.43; 2 studies, 1063 participants, low-certainty evidence). The number of persons with P2 protective humoral immunity and P2 neutralising antibodies are probably lower with most sequential schemes without P2 components (i.e. bOPV) than with trivalent OPV or IVP alone (moderate-certainty evidence). IPV (3)-OPV versus IPV (2)-OPV One study (137 participants) showed no clear evidence of a difference between three IPV doses followed by OPV and two IPV doses followed by OPV, on the number of people with P1 (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.03), P2 (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.03), or P3 (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.05) protective humoral and intestinal immunity; all moderate-certainty evidence. This study did not report on any other outcomes. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: IPV-OPV compared to OPV may reduce VAPPs without affecting vaccination coverage, safety or humoral response, except P2 with sequential schemes without P2 components, but increase poliovirus faecal excretion after OPV challenge for some polio serotypes. Compared to IPV-only schedules, IPV-OPV may have little or no difference on SAEs, probably has little or no effect on persons with protective humoral response, may increase neutralising antibodies, and probably reduces faecal excretion after OPV challenge of certain polio serotypes. Using three IPV doses as part of a IPV-OPV schedule does not appear to be better than two IPV doses for protective humoral response. Sequential schedules during the transition from OPV to IPV-only immunisation schedules seems a reasonable option aligned with current WHO recommendations. Findings could help decision-makers to optimise polio vaccination policies, reducing inequities between countries.