Data-driven modelling of neurodegenerative disease progression: thinking outside the black box.

Data-driven disease progression models are an emerging set of computational tools that reconstruct disease timelines for long-term chronic diseases, providing unique insights into disease processes and their underlying mechanisms. Such methods combine a priori human knowledge and assumptions with large-scale data processing and parameter estimation to infer long-term disease trajectories from short-term data. In contrast to 'black box' machine learning tools, data-driven disease progression models typically require fewer data and are inherently interpretable, thereby aiding disease understanding in addition to enabling classification, prediction and stratification. In this Review, we place the current landscape of data-driven disease progression models in a general framework and discuss their enhanced utility for constructing a disease timeline compared with wider machine learning tools that construct static disease profiles. We review the insights they have enabled across multiple neurodegenerative diseases, notably Alzheimer disease, for applications such as determining temporal trajectories of disease biomarkers, testing hypotheses about disease mechanisms and uncovering disease subtypes. We outline key areas for technological development and translation to a broader range of neuroscience and non-neuroscience applications. Finally, we discuss potential pathways and barriers to integrating disease progression models into clinical practice and trial settings.

Grey Matter Atrophy and its Relationship with White Matter Lesions in Patients with Myelin Oligodendrocyte Glycoprotein Antibody-associated Disease, Aquaporin-4 Antibody-Positive Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder, and Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate: (1) the distribution of gray matter (GM) atrophy in myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD), aquaporin-4 antibody-positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (AQP4+NMOSD), and relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS); and (2) the relationship between GM volumes and white matter lesions in various brain regions within each disease. METHODS: A retrospective, multicenter analysis of magnetic resonance imaging data included patients with MOGAD/AQP4+NMOSD/RRMS in non-acute disease stage. Voxel-wise analyses and general linear models were used to evaluate the relevance of regional GM atrophy. For significant results (p < 0.05), volumes of atrophic areas are reported. RESULTS: We studied 135 MOGAD patients, 135 AQP4+NMOSD, 175 RRMS, and 144 healthy controls (HC). Compared with HC, MOGAD showed lower GM volumes in the temporal lobes, deep GM, insula, and cingulate cortex (75.79 cm3); AQP4+NMOSD in the occipital cortex (32.83 cm3); and RRMS diffusely in the GM (260.61 cm3). MOGAD showed more pronounced temporal cortex atrophy than RRMS (6.71 cm3), whereas AQP4+NMOSD displayed greater occipital cortex atrophy than RRMS (19.82 cm3). RRMS demonstrated more pronounced deep GM atrophy in comparison with MOGAD (27.90 cm3) and AQP4+NMOSD (47.04 cm3). In MOGAD, higher periventricular and cortical/juxtacortical lesions were linked to reduced temporal cortex, deep GM, and insula volumes. In RRMS, the diffuse GM atrophy was associated with lesions in all locations. AQP4+NMOSD showed no lesion/GM volume correlation. INTERPRETATION: GM atrophy is more widespread in RRMS compared with the other two conditions. MOGAD primarily affects the temporal cortex, whereas AQP4+NMOSD mainly involves the occipital cortex. In MOGAD and RRMS, lesion-related tract degeneration is associated with atrophy, but this link is absent in AQP4+NMOSD. ANN NEUROL 2024;96:276-288.

Towards cascading genetic risk in Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease typically progresses in stages, which have been defined by the presence of disease-specific biomarkers: Amyloid (A), Tau (T) and neurodegeneration (N). This progression of biomarkers has been condensed into the ATN framework, where each of the biomarkers can be either positive (+) or negative (-). Over the past decades genome wide association studies have implicated about 90 different loci involved with the development of late onset Alzheimer's disease. Here we investigate whether genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease contributes equally to the progression in different disease stages or whether it exhibits a stage-dependent effect. Amyloid (A) and tau (T) status was defined using a combination of available PET and CSF biomarkers in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort. In 312 participants with biomarker-confirmed A-T- status, we employed Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the contribution of APOE and polygenic risk scores (beyond APOE) to convert to A+T- status (65 conversions). Furthermore, we repeated the analysis in 290 participants with A+T- status and investigated the genetic contribution to conversion to A+T+ (45 conversions). Both survival analyses were adjusted for age, sex, and years of education. For progression from A-T- to A+T-, APOE-e4 burden showed significant effect (HR=2.88; 95% CI: 1.70-4.89; P<0.001), while polygenic risk did not (HR=1.09; 95% CI: 0.84-1.42; P=0.53). Conversely, for the transition from A+T- to A+T+, the APOE-e4 burden contribution was reduced (HR=1.62 95% CI: 1.05-2.51; P=0.031), while the polygenic risk showed an increased contribution (HR=1.73; 95% CI:1.27-2.36; P<0.001). The marginal APOE effect was driven by e4 homozygotes (HR=2.58; 95% CI: 1.05-6.35; P=0.039) as opposed to e4 heterozygotes (HR=1.74; 95% CI: 0.87-3.49; P=0.12). The genetic risk for late-onset Alzheimer's disease unfolds in a disease stage-dependent fashion. A better understanding of the interplay between disease stage and genetic risk can lead to a more mechanistic understanding of transition between ATN stages, a better understanding of the molecular processes leading to Alzheimer's disease as well as opening therapeutic windows for targeted interventions.

Prognostic value of single-subject grey matter networks in early multiple sclerosis.

The identification of prognostic markers in early multiple sclerosis (MS) is challenging and requires reliable measures that robustly predict future disease trajectories. Ideally, such measures should make inferences at the individual level to inform clinical decisions. This study investigated the prognostic value of longitudinal structural networks to predict 5-year Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression in patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). We hypothesized that network measures, derived from MRI, outperform conventional MRI measurements at identifying patients at risk of developing disability progression. This longitudinal, multicentre study within the Magnetic Resonance Imaging in MS (MAGNIMS) network included 406 patients with RRMS (mean age = 35.7 ± 9.1 years) followed up for 5 years (mean follow-up = 5.0 ± 0.6 years). EDSS was determined to track disability accumulation. A group of 153 healthy subjects (mean age = 35.0 ± 10.1 years) with longitudinal MRI served as controls. All subjects underwent MRI at baseline and again 1 year after baseline. Grey matter atrophy over 1 year and white matter lesion load were determined. A single-subject brain network was reconstructed from T1-weighted scans based on grey matter atrophy measures derived from a statistical parameter mapping-based segmentation pipeline. Key topological measures, including network degree, global efficiency and transitivity, were calculated at single-subject level to quantify network properties related to EDSS progression. Areas under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for grey matter atrophy and white matter lesion load, and the network measures and comparisons between ROC curves were conducted. The applied network analyses differentiated patients with RRMS who experience EDSS progression over 5 years through lower values for network degree [H(2) = 30.0, P < 0.001] and global efficiency [H(2) = 31.3, P < 0.001] from healthy controls but also from patients without progression. For transitivity, the comparisons showed no difference between the groups [H(2) = 1.5, P = 0.474]. Most notably, changes in network degree and global efficiency were detected independent of disease activity in the first year. The described network reorganization in patients experiencing EDSS progression was evident in the absence of grey matter atrophy. Network degree and global efficiency measurements demonstrated superiority of network measures in the ROC analyses over grey matter atrophy and white matter lesion load in predicting EDSS worsening (all P-values < 0.05). Our findings provide evidence that grey matter network reorganization over 1 year discloses relevant information about subsequent clinical worsening in RRMS. Early grey matter restructuring towards lower network efficiency predicts disability accumulation and outperforms conventional MRI predictors.

Vitamin D did not reduce multiple sclerosis disease activity after a clinically isolated syndrome.

Low serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and low sunlight exposure are known risk factors for the development of multiple sclerosis. Add-on vitamin D supplementation trials in established multiple sclerosis have been inconclusive. The effects of vitamin D supplementation to prevent multiple sclerosis is unknown. We aimed to test the hypothesis that oral vitamin D3 supplementation in high-risk clinically isolated syndrome (abnormal MRI, at least three T2 brain and/or spinal cord lesions), delays time to conversion to definite multiple sclerosis, that the therapeutic effect is dose-dependent, and that all doses are safe and well tolerated. We conducted a double-blind trial in Australia and New Zealand. Eligible participants were randomized 1:1:1:1 to placebo, 1000, 5000 or 10 000 international units (IU) of oral vitamin D3 daily within each study centre (n = 23) and followed for up to 48 weeks. Between 2013 and 2021, we enrolled 204 participants. Brain MRI scans were performed at baseline, 24 and 48 weeks. The main study outcome was conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis based on the 2010 McDonald criteria defined as either a clinical relapse or new brain MRI T2 lesion development. We included 199 cases in the intention-to-treat analysis based on assigned dose. Of these, 116 converted to multiple sclerosis by 48 weeks (58%). Compared to placebo, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for conversion were 1000 IU 0.87 (0.50, 1.50); 5000 IU 1.37 (0.82, 2.29); and 10 000 IU 1.28 (0.76, 2.14). In an adjusted model including age, sex, latitude, study centre and baseline symptom number, clinically isolated syndrome onset site, presence of infratentorial lesions and use of steroids, the hazard ratios (versus placebo) were 1000 IU 0.80 (0.45, 1.44); 5000 IU 1.36 (0.78, 2.38); and 10 000 IU 1.07 (0.62, 1.85). Vitamin D3 supplementation was safe and well tolerated. We did not demonstrate reduction in multiple sclerosis disease activity by vitamin D3 supplementation after a high-risk clinically isolated syndrome.

Assessing brain involvement in Fabry disease with deep learning and the brain-age paradigm.

While neurological manifestations are core features of Fabry disease (FD), quantitative neuroimaging biomarkers allowing to measure brain involvement are lacking. We used deep learning and the brain-age paradigm to assess whether FD patients' brains appear older than normal and to validate brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD) as a possible disease severity biomarker. MRI scans of FD patients and healthy controls (HCs) from a single Institution were, retrospectively, studied. The Fabry stabilization index (FASTEX) was recorded as a measure of disease severity. Using minimally preprocessed 3D T1-weighted brain scans of healthy subjects from eight publicly available sources (N = 2160; mean age = 33 years [range 4-86]), we trained a model predicting chronological age based on a DenseNet architecture and used it to generate brain-age predictions in the internal cohort. Within a linear modeling framework, brain-PAD was tested for age/sex-adjusted associations with diagnostic group (FD vs. HC), FASTEX score, and both global and voxel-level neuroimaging measures. We studied 52 FD patients (40.6 ± 12.6 years; 28F) and 58 HC (38.4 ± 13.4 years; 28F). The brain-age model achieved accurate out-of-sample performance (mean absolute error = 4.01 years, R2 = .90). FD patients had significantly higher brain-PAD than HC (estimated marginal means: 3.1 vs. -0.1, p = .01). Brain-PAD was associated with FASTEX score (B = 0.10, p = .02), brain parenchymal fraction (B = -153.50, p = .001), white matter hyperintensities load (B = 0.85, p = .01), and tissue volume reduction throughout the brain. We demonstrated that FD patients' brains appear older than normal. Brain-PAD correlates with FD-related multi-organ damage and is influenced by both global brain volume and white matter hyperintensities, offering a comprehensive biomarker of (neurological) disease severity.

Brain Tumor Imaging without Gadolinium-based Contrast Agents: Feasible or Fantasy?

Gadolinium-based contrast agents (GBCAs) form the cornerstone of current primary brain tumor MRI protocols at all stages of the patient journey. Though an imperfect measure of tumor grade, GBCAs are repeatedly used for diagnosis and monitoring. In practice, however, radiologists will encounter situations where GBCA injection is not needed or of doubtful benefit. Reducing GBCA administration could improve the patient burden of (repeated) imaging (especially in vulnerable patient groups, such as children), minimize risks of putative side effects, and benefit costs, logistics, and the environmental footprint. On the basis of the current literature, imaging strategies to reduce GBCA exposure for pediatric and adult patients with primary brain tumors will be reviewed. Early postoperative MRI and fixed-interval imaging of gliomas are examples of GBCA exposure with uncertain survival benefits. Half-dose GBCAs for gliomas and T2-weighted imaging alone for meningiomas are among options to reduce GBCA use. While most imaging guidelines recommend using GBCAs at all stages of diagnosis and treatment, non-contrast-enhanced sequences, such as the arterial spin labeling, have shown a great potential. Artificial intelligence methods to generate synthetic postcontrast images from decreased-dose or non-GBCA scans have shown promise to replace GBCA-dependent approaches. This review is focused on pediatric and adult gliomas and meningiomas. Special attention is paid to the quality and real-life applicability of the reviewed literature.

Rates of cortical thinning in Alzheimer's disease signature regions associate with vascular burden but not with ß-amyloid status in cognitively normal adults at age 70.

BACKGROUND: Consistent patterns of reduced cortical thickness have been identified in early Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the pathological factors that influence rates of cortical thinning within these AD signature regions remain unclear. METHODS: Participants were from the Insight 46 substudy of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; 1946 British birth cohort), a prospective longitudinal cohort study. Linear regression was used to examine associations of baseline cerebral ß-amyloid (Aß) deposition, measured using florbetapir positron emission tomography, and baseline white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV) on MRI, a marker of cerebral small vessel disease, with subsequent longitudinal changes in AD signature cortical thickness quantified from baseline and repeat MRI (mean [SD] interval 2.4 [0.2] years). RESULTS: In a population-based sample of 337 cognitively normal older white adults (mean [SD] age at baseline 70.5 [0.6] years; 48.1% female), higher global WMHV at baseline related to faster subsequent rates of cortical thinning in both AD signature regions (~0.15%/year faster per 10 mL additional WMHV), whereas baseline Aß status did not. Among Aß positive participants (n=56), there was some evidence that greater global Aß standardised uptake value ratio at baseline related to faster cortical thinning in the AD signature Mayo region, but this did not reach statistical significance (p=0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Cortical thinning within AD signature regions may develop via cerebrovascular pathways. Perhaps reflecting the age of the cohort and relatively low prevalence of Aß-positivity, robust Aß-related differences were not detected. Longitudinal follow-up incorporating additional biomarkers will allow assessment of how these relationships evolve closer to expected dementia onset.

Prospective trial of natalizumab personalised extended interval dosing by therapeutic drug monitoring in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (NEXT-MS).

BACKGROUND: Extended interval dosing (EID) of natalizumab is a promising strategy to optimise treatment in multiple sclerosis (MS). Personalised EID by therapeutic drug monitoring can enable further extension of treatment intervals. METHODS: The NEXT-MS trial is an investigator-initiated prospective phase IV non-randomised study. Adults with a diagnosis of relapsing-remitting MS who received ≥6 natalizumab infusions were included in three groups: personalised EID with a target drug trough concentration of 10 µg/mL (EID10), an exploratory group of personalised EID with a target of 5 µg/mL (EID5) and standard interval dosing (SID) of 4 weeks. The primary outcome is radiological disease activity (new/newly enlarged T2 lesions) comparing the EID10 group to a historical cohort of SID (HSID). RESULTS: Results of the first phase of the NEXT-MS trial are reported here (n=376) as the study will continue with an amended protocol. In the EID10 group (n=251), incidence rate of radiological activity was 10.0 per 1000 person-years, which was non-inferior to the HSID cohort (24.7 per 1000 person-years (n=87), incidence rate difference 14.7, 90% CI -4.5 to 34.0). Incidence rate of radiological activity was 10.0 per 1000 person-years in the EID5 group (n=65), and 47.0 per 1000 person-years in the SID group (n=60). Serum neurofilament light levels did not increase over time within the EID groups. There were no cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. CONCLUSIONS: MS disease activity is adequately controlled with personalised natalizumab EID. Interval extension to a drug trough concentration of 5 µg/mL is likely a safe target to extend natalizumab treatment intervals >6 weeks. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04225312.

Impact of simulated reduced injected dose on the assessment of amyloid PET scans.

PURPOSE: To investigate the impact of reduced injected doses on the quantitative and qualitative assessment of the amyloid PET tracers [18F]flutemetamol and [18F]florbetaben. METHODS: Cognitively impaired and unimpaired individuals (N = 250, 36% Aß-positive) were included and injected with [18F]flutemetamol (N = 175) or [18F]florbetaben (N = 75). PET scans were acquired in list-mode (90-110 min post-injection) and reduced-dose images were simulated to generate images of 75, 50, 25, 12.5 and 5% of the original injected dose. Images were reconstructed using vendor-provided reconstruction tools and visually assessed for Aß-pathology. SUVRs were calculated for a global cortical and three smaller regions using a cerebellar cortex reference tissue, and Centiloid was computed. Absolute and percentage differences in SUVR and CL were calculated between dose levels, and the ability to discriminate between Aß- and Aß + scans was evaluated using ROC analyses. Finally, intra-reader agreement between the reduced dose and 100% images was evaluated. RESULTS: At 5% injected dose, change in SUVR was 3.72% and 3.12%, with absolute change in Centiloid 3.35CL and 4.62CL, for [18F]flutemetamol and [18F]florbetaben, respectively. At 12.5% injected dose, percentage change in SUVR and absolute change in Centiloid were < 1.5%. AUCs for discriminating Aß- from Aß + scans were high (AUC ≥ 0.94) across dose levels, and visual assessment showed intra-reader agreement of > 80% for both tracers. CONCLUSION: This proof-of-concept study showed that for both [18F]flutemetamol and [18F]florbetaben, adequate quantitative and qualitative assessments can be obtained at 12.5% of the original injected dose. However, decisions to reduce the injected dose should be made considering the specific clinical or research circumstances.

Subtypes and location of (juxta)cortical lesions relate to cognitive dysfunction in people with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Cortical lesion subtypes' occurrence and distribution across networks may shed light on cognitive impairment (CI) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: In 332 people with MS, lesions were classified as intracortical, leukocortical or juxtacortical based on artificially generated double inversion-recovery images. RESULTS: CI-related leukocortical lesion count increases were greatest within sensorimotor and cognitive networks (p < 0.001). Only intracortical lesion count could distinguish between cognitive groups (p = 0.024). Effect sizes were two- to four-fold larger than differences between MS phenotypes. CONCLUSION: In CI-MS, leukocortical lesions predominate, whereas intracortical lesions distinguish cognitive groups. Lesions' grey matter (GM) involvement might be decisive for cognition in MS, surpassing overall disease burden.

Disease progression in the first 5 years of treatment in multiple sclerosis: Predictive value of early brain and lesion volume changes.

BACKGROUND: Whether the degree of inflammation (and its resolution) and neurodegeneration after treatment initiation predicts disease progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: To assess the predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived brain and lesion volume (LV) changes in years 1 and 2 of treatment for disease progression. METHODS: Patients receiving early interferon beta-1a treatment in REFLEX/REFLEXION (N = 262) were included. Predictive regression models included new/enlarging LV (positive activity), disappearing/shrinking LV (negative activity), and global/central atrophy during years 1 and 2. RESULTS: Faster global atrophy and/or pseudo-atrophy and positive lesion activity in years 1 and 2 related to an increased probability and faster conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS). Negative lesion activity in year 1 and slower central atrophy in year 2 were predictive of confirmed disability progression (9-Hole Peg Test). Positive lesion activity in year 2 was predictive of faster global atrophy, while positive lesion activity in years 1 and 2 was predictive of faster central atrophy. CONCLUSIONS: A higher degree of global atrophy and/or pseudo-atrophy in year 1 was predictive of CDMS. Positive lesion activity in any year was related to CDMS and neurodegeneration. Disability was related to negative lesion activity in year 1 and slower central atrophy in year 2.

Improving explanation of motor disability with diffusion-based graph metrics at onset of the first demyelinating event.

BACKGROUND: Conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) does not account for all disability in multiple sclerosis. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess the ability of graph metrics from diffusion-based structural connectomes to explain motor function beyond conventional MRI in early demyelinating clinically isolated syndrome (CIS). METHODS: A total of 73 people with CIS underwent conventional MRI, diffusion-weighted imaging and clinical assessment within 3 months from onset. A total of 28 healthy controls underwent MRI. Structural connectomes were produced. Differences between patients and controls were explored; clinical associations were assessed in patients. Linear regression models were compared to establish relevance of graph metrics over conventional MRI. RESULTS: Local efficiency (p = 0.045), clustering (p = 0.034) and transitivity (p = 0.036) were reduced in patients. Higher assortativity was associated with higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) (ß = 74.9, p = 0.026) scores. Faster timed 25-foot walk (T25FW) was associated with higher assortativity (ß = 5.39, p = 0.026), local efficiency (ß = 27.1, p = 0.041) and clustering (ß = 36.1, p = 0.032) and lower small-worldness (ß = -3.27, p = 0.015). Adding graph metrics to conventional MRI improved EDSS (p = 0.045, ΔR2 = 4) and T25FW (p < 0.001, ΔR2 = 13.6) prediction. CONCLUSION: Graph metrics are relevant early in demyelination. They show differences between patients and controls and have relationships with clinical outcomes. Segregation (local efficiency, clustering, transitivity) was particularly relevant. Combining graph metrics with conventional MRI better explained disability.

Exploring the effects of extended interval dosing of natalizumab and drug concentrations on brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Extended interval dosing (EID) of natalizumab treatment is increasingly used in multiple sclerosis. Besides the clear anti-inflammatory effect, natalizumab is considered to have neuroprotective properties as well. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to study the longitudinal effects of EID compared to standard interval dosing (SID) and natalizumab drug concentrations on brain atrophy. METHODS: Patients receiving EID or SID of natalizumab with a minimum radiological follow-up of 2 years were included. Changes in brain atrophy measures over time were derived from clinical routine 3D-Fluid Attenuated Inversion Recovery (FLAIR)-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans using SynthSeg. RESULTS: We found no differences between EID (n = 32) and SID (n = 50) for whole brain (-0.21% vs -0.16%, p = 0.42), ventricular (1.84% vs 1.13%, p = 0.24), and thalamic (-0.32% vs -0.32%, p = 0.97) annualized volume change over a median follow-up of 3.2 years. No associations between natalizumab drug concentration and brain atrophy rate were found. CONCLUSION: We found no clear evidence that EID compared to SID or lower natalizumab drug concentrations have a negative impact on the development of brain atrophy over time.

Optic chiasm involvement in multiple sclerosis, aquaporin-4 antibody-positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein-associated disease.

BACKGROUND: Optic neuritis (ON) is a common feature of inflammatory demyelinating diseases (IDDs) such as multiple sclerosis (MS), aquaporin 4-antibody neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (AQP4 + NMOSD) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD). However, the involvement of the optic chiasm (OC) in IDD has not been fully investigated. AIMS: To examine OC differences in non-acute IDD patients with (ON+) and without ON (ON-) using magnetisation transfer ratio (MTR), to compare differences between MS, AQP4 + NMOSD and MOGAD and understand their associations with other neuro-ophthalmological markers. METHODS: Twenty-eight relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), 24 AQP4 + NMOSD, 28 MOGAD patients and 32 healthy controls (HCs) underwent clinical evaluation, MRI and optical coherence tomography (OCT) scan. Multivariable linear regression models were applied. RESULTS: ON + IDD patients showed lower OC MTR than HCs (28.87 ± 4.58 vs 31.65 ± 4.93; p = 0.004). When compared with HCs, lower OC MTR was found in ON + AQP4 + NMOSD (28.55 ± 4.18 vs 31.65 ± 4.93; p = 0.020) and MOGAD (28.73 ± 4.99 vs 31.65 ± 4.93; p = 0.007) and in ON- AQP4 + NMOSD (28.37 ± 7.27 vs 31.65 ± 4.93; p = 0.035). ON+ RRMS had lower MTR than ON- RRMS (28.87 ± 4.58 vs 30.99 ± 4.76; p = 0.038). Lower OC MTR was associated with higher number of ON (regression coefficient (RC) = -1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -1.819 to -0.490, p = 0.001), worse visual acuity (RC = -0.026, 95% CI = -0.041 to -0.011, p = 0.001) and lower peripapillary retinal nerve fibre layer (pRNFL) thickness (RC = 1.129, 95% CI = 0.199 to 2.059, p = 0.018) when considering the whole IDD group. CONCLUSION: OC microstructural damage indicates prior ON in IDD and is linked to reduced vision and thinner pRNFL.

Treatment reduces the incidence of newly appearing multiple sclerosis lesions evolving into chronic active, slowly expanding lesions: A retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Newly appearing lesions in multiple sclerosis (MS) may evolve into chronically active, slowly expanding lesions (SELs), leading to sustained disability progression. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of newly appearing lesions developing into SELs, and their correlation to clinical evolution and treatment. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of a fingolimod trial in primary progressive MS (PPMS; INFORMS, NCT00731692) was undertaken. Data were available from 324 patients with magnetic resonance imaging scans up to 3 years after screening. New lesions at year 1 were identified with convolutional neural networks, and SELs obtained through a deformation-based method. Clinical disability was assessed annually by Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Nine-Hole Peg Test, Timed 25-Foot Walk, and Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test. Linear, logistic, and mixed-effect models were used to assess the relationship between the Jacobian expansion in new lesions and SELs, disability scores, and treatment status. RESULTS: One hundred seventy patients had ≥1 new lesions at year 1 and had a higher lesion count at screening compared to patients with no new lesions (median = 27 vs. 22, p = 0.007). Among the new lesions (median = 2 per patient), 37% evolved into definite or possible SELs. Higher SEL volume and count were associated with EDSS worsening and confirmed disability progression. Treated patients had lower volume and count of definite SELs (ß = -0.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.07 to -0.01, p = 0.015; ß = -0.36, 95% CI = -0.67 to -0.06, p = 0.019, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Incident chronic active lesions are common in PPMS, and fingolimod treatment can reduce their number.

Visual associative learning to detect early episodic memory deficits and distinguish Alzheimer's disease from other types of dementia.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated how well a visual associative learning task discriminates Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia from other types of dementia and how it relates to AD pathology. METHODS: 3,599 patients (63.9 ± 8.9 years old, 41% female) from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort completed two sets of the Visual Association Test (VAT) in a single test session and underwent magnetic resonance imaging. We performed receiver operating curve analysis to investigate the VAT's discriminatory ability between AD dementia and other diagnoses and compared it to that of other episodic memory tests. We tested associations between VAT performance and medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA), and amyloid status (n = 2,769, 77%). RESULTS: Patients with AD dementia performed worse on the VAT than all other patients. The VAT discriminated well between AD and other types of dementia (area under the curve range 0.70-0.86), better than other episodic memory tests. Six-hundred forty patients (17.8%) learned all associations on VAT-A, but not on VAT-B, and they were more likely to have higher MTA scores (odds ratios range 1.63 (MTA 0.5) through 5.13 for MTA ≥ 3, all p < .001) and to be amyloid positive (odds ratio = 3.38, 95%CI = [2.71, 4.22], p < .001) than patients who learned all associations on both sets. CONCLUSIONS: Performance on the VAT, especially on a second set administered immediately after the first, discriminates AD from other types of dementia and is associated with MTA and amyloid positivity. The VAT might be a useful, simple tool to assess early episodic memory deficits in the presence of AD pathology.

Updating the study protocol: Insight 46 - a longitudinal neuroscience sub-study of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development - phases 2 and 3.

BACKGROUND: Although age is the biggest known risk factor for dementia, there remains uncertainty about other factors over the life course that contribute to a person's risk for cognitive decline later in life. Furthermore, the pathological processes leading to dementia are not fully understood. The main goals of Insight 46-a multi-phase longitudinal observational study-are to collect detailed cognitive, neurological, physical, cardiovascular, and sensory data; to combine those data with genetic and life-course information collected from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; 1946 British birth cohort); and thereby contribute to a better understanding of healthy ageing and dementia. METHODS/DESIGN: Phase 1 of Insight 46 (2015-2018) involved the recruitment of 502 members of the NSHD (median age = 70.7 years; 49% female) and has been described in detail by Lane and Parker et al. 2017. The present paper describes phase 2 (2018-2021) and phase 3 (2021-ongoing). Of the 502 phase 1 study members who were invited to a phase 2 research visit, 413 were willing to return for a clinic visit in London and 29 participated in a remote research assessment due to COVID-19 restrictions. Phase 3 aims to recruit 250 study members who previously participated in both phases 1 and 2 of Insight 46 (providing a third data time point) and 500 additional members of the NSHD who have not previously participated in Insight 46. DISCUSSION: The NSHD is the oldest and longest continuously running British birth cohort. Members of the NSHD are now at a critical point in their lives for us to investigate successful ageing and key age-related brain morbidities. Data collected from Insight 46 have the potential to greatly contribute to and impact the field of healthy ageing and dementia by combining unique life course data with longitudinal multiparametric clinical, imaging, and biomarker measurements. Further protocol enhancements are planned, including in-home sleep measurements and the engagement of participants through remote online cognitive testing. Data collected are and will continue to be made available to the scientific community.

A data-driven study of Alzheimer's disease related amyloid and tau pathology progression.

Amyloid-ß is thought to facilitate the spread of tau throughout the neocortex in Alzheimer's disease, though how this occurs is not well understood. This is because of the spatial discordance between amyloid-ß, which accumulates in the neocortex, and tau, which accumulates in the medial temporal lobe during ageing. There is evidence that in some cases amyloid-ß-independent tau spreads beyond the medial temporal lobe where it may interact with neocortical amyloid-ß. This suggests that there may be multiple distinct spatiotemporal subtypes of Alzheimer's-related protein aggregation, with potentially different demographic and genetic risk profiles. We investigated this hypothesis, applying data-driven disease progression subtyping models to post-mortem neuropathology and in vivo PET-based measures from two large observational studies: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the Religious Orders Study and Rush Memory and Aging Project (ROSMAP). We consistently identified 'amyloid-first' and 'tau-first' subtypes using cross-sectional information from both studies. In the amyloid-first subtype, extensive neocortical amyloid-ß precedes the spread of tau beyond the medial temporal lobe, while in the tau-first subtype, mild tau accumulates in medial temporal and neocortical areas prior to interacting with amyloid-ß. As expected, we found a higher prevalence of the amyloid-first subtype among apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele carriers while the tau-first subtype was more common among APOE ε4 non-carriers. Within tau-first APOE ε4 carriers, we found an increased rate of amyloid-ß accumulation (via longitudinal amyloid PET), suggesting that this rare group may belong within the Alzheimer's disease continuum. We also found that tau-first APOE ε4 carriers had several fewer years of education than other groups, suggesting a role for modifiable risk factors in facilitating amyloid-ß-independent tau. Tau-first APOE ε4 non-carriers, in contrast, recapitulated many of the features of primary age-related tauopathy. The rate of longitudinal amyloid-ß and tau accumulation (both measured via PET) within this group did not differ from normal ageing, supporting the distinction of primary age-related tauopathy from Alzheimer's disease. We also found reduced longitudinal subtype consistency within tau-first APOE ε4 non-carriers, suggesting additional heterogeneity within this group. Our findings support the idea that amyloid-ß and tau may begin as independent processes in spatially disconnected regions, with widespread neocortical tau resulting from the local interaction of amyloid-ß and tau. The site of this interaction may be subtype-dependent: medial temporal lobe in amyloid-first, neocortex in tau-first. These insights into the dynamics of amyloid-ß and tau may inform research and clinical trials that target these pathologies.

Determinants of cognitive and brain resilience to tau pathology: a longitudinal analysis.

Mechanisms of resilience against tau pathology in individuals across the Alzheimer's disease spectrum are insufficiently understood. Longitudinal data are necessary to reveal which factors relate to preserved cognition (i.e. cognitive resilience) and brain structure (i.e. brain resilience) despite abundant tau pathology, and to clarify whether these associations are cross-sectional or longitudinal. We used a longitudinal study design to investigate the role of several demographic, biological and brain structural factors in yielding cognitive and brain resilience to tau pathology as measured with PET. In this multicentre study, we included 366 amyloid-ß-positive individuals with mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease dementia with baseline 18F-flortaucipir-PET and longitudinal cognitive assessments. A subset (n = 200) additionally underwent longitudinal structural MRI. We used linear mixed-effects models with global cognition and cortical thickness as dependent variables to investigate determinants of cognitive resilience and brain resilience, respectively. Models assessed whether age, sex, years of education, APOE-ε4 status, intracranial volume (and cortical thickness for cognitive resilience models) modified the association of tau pathology with cognitive decline or cortical thinning. We found that the association between higher baseline tau-PET levels (quantified in a temporal meta-region of interest) and rate of cognitive decline (measured with repeated Mini-Mental State Examination) was adversely modified by older age (Stßinteraction = -0.062, P = 0.032), higher education level (Stßinteraction = -0.072, P = 0.011) and higher intracranial volume (Stßinteraction = -0.07, P = 0.016). Younger age, higher education and greater cortical thickness were associated with better cognitive performance at baseline. Greater cortical thickness was furthermore associated with slower cognitive decline independent of tau burden. Higher education also modified the negative impact of tau-PET on cortical thinning, while older age was associated with higher baseline cortical thickness and slower rate of cortical thinning independent of tau. Our analyses revealed no (cross-sectional or longitudinal) associations for sex and APOE-ε4 status on cognition and cortical thickness. In this longitudinal study of clinically impaired individuals with underlying Alzheimer's disease neuropathological changes, we identified education as the most robust determinant of both cognitive and brain resilience against tau pathology. The observed interaction with tau burden on cognitive decline suggests that education may be protective against cognitive decline and brain atrophy at lower levels of tau pathology, with a potential depletion of resilience resources with advancing pathology. Finally, we did not find major contributions of sex to brain nor cognitive resilience, suggesting that previous links between sex and resilience might be mainly driven by cross-sectional differences.