An Updated Economic Assessment of Moxidectin Treatment Strategies for Onchocerciasis Elimination.

BACKGROUND: Concerns that annual mass administration of ivermectin, the predominant strategy for onchocerciasis control and elimination, may not lead to elimination of parasite transmission (EoT) in all endemic areas have increased interest in alternative treatment strategies. One such strategy is moxidectin. We performed an updated economic assessment of moxidectin- relative to ivermectin-based strategies. METHODS: We investigated annual and biannual community-directed treatment with ivermectin (aCDTI, bCDTI) and moxidectin (aCDTM, bCDTM) with minimal or enhanced coverage (65% or 80% of total population taking the drug, respectively) in intervention-naive areas with 30%, 50%, or 70% microfilarial baseline prevalence (representative of hypo-, meso-, and hyperendemic areas). We compared programmatic delivery costs for the number of treatments achieving 90% probability of EoT (EoT90), calculated with the individual-based stochastic transmission model EPIONCHO-IBM. We used the costs for 40 years of program delivery when EoT90 was not reached earlier. The delivery costs do not include drug costs. RESULTS: aCDTM and bCDTM achieved EoT90 with lower programmatic delivery costs than aCDTI with 1 exception: aCDTM with minimal coverage did not achieve EoT90 in hyperendemic areas within 40 years. With minimal coverage, bCDTI delivery costs as much or more than aCDTM and bCDTM. With enhanced coverage, programmatic delivery costs for aCDTM and bCDTM were lower than for aCDTI and bCDTI. CONCLUSIONS: Moxidectin-based strategies could accelerate progress toward EoT and reduce programmatic delivery costs compared with ivermectin-based strategies. The costs of moxidectin to national programs are needed to quantify whether delivery cost reductions will translate into overall program cost reduction.

How Does Treatment Coverage and Proportion Never Treated Influence the Success of Schistosoma mansoni Elimination as a Public Health Problem by 2030?

BACKGROUND: The 2030 target for schistosomiasis is elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), achieved when the prevalence of heavy-intensity infection among school-aged children (SAC) reduces to <1%. To achieve this, the new World Health Organization guidelines recommend a broader target of population to include pre-SAC and adults. However, the probability of achieving EPHP should be expected to depend on patterns in repeated uptake of mass drug administration by individuals. METHODS: We employed 2 individual-based stochastic models to evaluate the impact of school-based and community-wide treatment and calculated the number of rounds required to achieve EPHP for Schistosoma mansoni by considering various levels of the population never treated (NT). We also considered 2 age-intensity profiles, corresponding to a low and high burden of infection in adults. RESULTS: The number of rounds needed to achieve this target depends on the baseline prevalence and the coverage used. For low- and moderate-transmission areas, EPHP can be achieved within 7 years if NT ≤10% and NT <5%, respectively. In high-transmission areas, community-wide treatment with NT <1% is required to achieve EPHP. CONCLUSIONS: The higher the intensity of transmission, and the lower the treatment coverage, the lower the acceptable value of NT becomes. Using more efficacious treatment regimens would permit NT values to be marginally higher. A balance between target treatment coverage and NT values may be an adequate treatment strategy depending on the epidemiological setting, but striving to increase coverage and/or minimize NT can shorten program duration.

How Does the Proportion of Never Treatment Influence the Success of Mass Drug Administration Programs for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis?

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames. METHODS: Using 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting. RESULTS: For Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT.

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

Modelling onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy and the impact of ivermectin treatment on its prevalence and incidence.

Retrospective cohort studies in Cameroon found an association between Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial load in childhood (measured in 1991-1993) and risk of developing epilepsy later in life (measured in 2017). We parameterised and integrated this relationship (across children aged 3-15 years) into the previously published, stochastic transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, for Simulium damnosum sensu lato-transmitted onchocerciasis. We simulated 19 years (1998-2017) of annual ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) reflecting coverage in the study area, and modelled epilepsy prevalence and incidence. Scenario-based simulations of 25 years of (annual and biannual) MDA in hyper- and holoendemic settings, with 65% and 80% therapeutic coverage, were also conducted. EPIONCHO-IBM predicted 7.6% epilepsy prevalence (compared to 8.2% in the Cameroon study) and incidence of 317 cases/100,000 person-years (compared to 350). In hyperendemic areas, 25 years of biannual MDA (80% coverage) eliminated onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) and protected untreated under-fives from its development. Strengthening onchocerciasis programmes, implementing alternative strategies, and evaluating treatment for under-fives and school-age children are crucial to prevent OAE in highly-endemic settings.

The lymphatic filariasis treatment study landscape: A systematic review of study characteristics and the case for an individual participant data platform.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted by the World Health Organization for elimination as a public health problem (EPHP). Since 2000, more than 9 billion treatments of antifilarial medicines have been distributed through mass drug administration (MDA) programmes in 72 endemic countries and 17 countries have reached EPHP. Yet in 2021, nearly 900 million people still required MDA with combinations of albendazole, diethylcarbamazine and/or ivermectin. Despite the reliance on these drugs, there remain gaps in understanding of variation in responses to treatment. As demonstrated for other infectious diseases, some urgent questions could be addressed by conducting individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses. Here, we present the results of a systematic literature review to estimate the abundance of IPD on pre- and post-intervention indicators of infection and/or morbidity and assess the feasibility of building a global data repository. METHODOLOGY: We searched literature published between 1st January 2000 and 5th May 2023 in 15 databases to identify prospective studies assessing LF treatment and/or morbidity management and disease prevention (MMDP) approaches. We considered only studies where individual participants were diagnosed with LF infection or disease and were followed up on at least one occasion after receiving an intervention/treatment. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We identified 138 eligible studies from 23 countries, having followed up an estimated 29,842 participants after intervention. We estimate 14,800 (49.6%) IPD on pre- and post-intervention infection indicators including microfilaraemia, circulating filarial antigen and/or ultrasound indicators measured before and after intervention using 8 drugs administered in various combinations. We identified 33 studies on MMDP, estimating 6,102 (20.4%) IPD on pre- and post-intervention clinical morbidity indicators only. A further 8,940 IPD cover a mixture of infection and morbidity outcomes measured with other diagnostics, from participants followed for adverse event outcomes only or recruited after initial intervention. CONCLUSIONS: The LF treatment study landscape is heterogeneous, but the abundance of studies and related IPD suggest that establishing a global data repository to facilitate IPD meta-analyses would be feasible and useful to address unresolved questions on variation in treatment outcomes across geographies, demographics and in underrepresented groups. New studies using more standardized approaches should be initiated to address the scarcity and inconsistency of data on morbidity management.

Treatment and prevention of epilepsy in onchocerciasis-endemic areas is urgently needed.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing epidemiological evidence supporting the association between onchocerciasis and seizures, reinforcing the concept of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE). The aim of this paper is to provide an update on the new knowledge about OAE and to propose recommendations to the World Health Organization how to address this public health problem. MAIN TEXT: During the 2nd International Workshop on OAE held on 19-21 September, 2023, in Antwerp, Belgium, participants recognised OAE as a substantial yet neglected public health problem, particularly in areas of sub-Saharan Africa where onchocerciasis remains hyperendemic. Evidence from prospective population-based studies suggest that strengthening onchocerciasis elimination efforts leads to a significant reduction of OAE incidence. There is a need to validate an OAE case definition to estimate the burden of disease and identify onchocerciasis-endemic areas requiring intensification of onchocerciasis elimination programmes and integration of epilepsy care. It is expected that raising awareness about OAE will boost the population uptake of ivermectin. The implementation of a community-based epilepsy treatment programme offering free anti-seizure medications (ASMs) has shown high effectiveness in reducing the frequency of seizures and improving the overall quality of life of people with epilepsy. CONCLUSIONS: To reduce OAE burden, enhanced collaboration between onchocerciasis and mental health programmes at community, national, and international levels is required. Urgent efforts are needed to ensure the uninterrupted provision of free ASMs in onchocerciasis-endemic areas. Furthermore, OAE should be included in the quantification of the onchocerciasis disease burden.

Elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) with long-term ivermectin mass drug administration with or without vector control in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: WHO has proposed elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) by 2030. More than 99% of cases of onchocerciasis are in sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and mass drug administration of ivermectin have been the main interventions for many years, with varying success. We aimed to identify factors associated with elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched for published articles reporting epidemiological or entomological assessments of onchocerciasis transmission status in sub-Saharan Africa, with or without vector control. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, African Index Medicus, and Google Scholar databases for all articles published from database inception to Aug 19, 2023, without language restrictions. The search terms used were "onchocerciasis" AND "ivermectin" AND "mass drug administration". The three inclusion criteria were (1) focus or foci located in Africa, (2) reporting of elimination of transmission or at least 10 years of ivermectin mass drug administration in the focus or foci, and (3) inclusion of at least one of the following assessments: microfilarial prevalence, nodule prevalence, Ov16 antibody seroprevalence, and blackfly infectivity prevalence. Epidemiological modelling studies and reviews were excluded. Four reviewers (NM, AJ, AM, and TNK) extracted data in duplicate from the full-text articles using a data extraction tool developed in Excel with columns recording the data of interest to be extracted, and a column where important comments for each study could be highlighted. We did not request any individual-level data from authors. Foci were classified as achieving elimination of transmission, being close to elimination of transmission, or with ongoing transmission. We used mixed-effects meta-regression models to identify factors associated with transmission status. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42022338986. FINDINGS: Of 1525 articles screened after the removal of duplicates, 75 provided 282 records from 238 distinct foci in 19 (70%) of the 27 onchocerciasis-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Elimination of transmission was reported in 24 (9%) records, being close to elimination of transmission in 86 (30%) records, and ongoing transmission in 172 (61%) records. I2 was 83·3% (95% CI 79·7 to 86·3). Records reporting 10 or more years of continuous mass drug administration with 80% or more therapeutic coverage of the eligible population yielded significantly higher odds of achieving elimination of transmission (log-odds 8·5 [95% CI 3·5 to 13·5]) or elimination and being close to elimination of transmission (42·4 [18·7 to 66·1]) than those with no years achieving 80% coverage or more. Reporting 15-19 years of ivermectin mass drug administration (22·7 [17·2 to 28·2]) and biannual treatment (43·3 [27·2 to 59·3]) were positively associated with elimination and being close to elimination of transmission compared with less than 15 years and no biannual mass drug administration, respectively. Having had vector control without vector elimination (-42·8 [-59·1 to -26·5]) and baseline holoendemicity (-41·97 [-60·6 to -23·2]) were associated with increased risk of ongoing transmission compared with no vector control and hypoendemicity, respectively. Blackfly disappearance due to vector control or environmental change contributed to elimination of transmission. INTERPRETATION: Mass drug administration duration, frequency, and coverage; baseline endemicity; and vector elimination or disappearance are important determinants of elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings underscore the importance of improving and sustaining high therapeutic coverage and increasing treatment frequency if countries are to achieve elimination of onchocerciasis transmission. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium, UK Medical Research Council, and Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking. TRANSLATIONS: For the Swahili, French, Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

La oncocercosis humana en el foco amazónico / Human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus

En este artículo se describe la oncocercosis humana, la cual afecta al pueblo Yanomami en el foco amazónico del sur de Venezuela y se revisa el conocimiento actualizado de la enfermedad y su control. La epidemiología de esta infección parasitaria (causada por Onchocerca volvulus ), y transmitida por insectos simúlidos, es altamente dependiente de las características ambientales y entomológicas prevalecientes en la región, determinadas por gradientes altitudinales, vegetacionales, y geológicos que inciden en la distribución y severidad de la endemia. Asimismo, las características socioculturales y demográ ficas del pueblo Yanomami juegan un papel importante en la exposición al vector y en los niveles de transmisión del parásito. Las comunidades con mayor intensidad de infección y transmisión(hiperendémicas), son aquellas situadas a mayor altura, caracterizadas por elevadas cargas parasitarias, lesiones dermatológicas y oculares, además de una profunda supresión de la respuesta inmunológica frente a antígenos del parásito y otros. La proporción de comunidades hiperendémicas alcanza el 60 por ciento de las estratificadas hasta el momento, pero los mapas de riesgo generados usando sistemas de información geográfica sugieren que esta proporción puede ser aún más elevada. El programa de eliminación de la oncocercosis se basa en la distribución masiva bianual de ivermectina al 85% de la población elegible, y a pesar de las dificultades en el logro de esta meta, principalmente debido a la ubicación remota de las comunidades, el impacto de varias rondas de tratamiento permite aseverar que ha habido una mejoría de los indicadores parasitológicos y clínicos en la población Yanomami incorporada al programa. Finalmente, se discuten algunos lineamientos actuales dentro de la vigilancia epidemiológica y se reseñan nuevas opciones terapéuticas para el control de la oncocercosis.