Family history aggregation unit-based tests to detect rare genetic variant associations with application to the Framingham Heart Study.

A challenge in standard genetic studies is maintaining good power to detect associations, especially for low prevalent diseases and rare variants. The traditional methods are most powerful when evaluating the association between variants in balanced study designs. Without accounting for family correlation and unbalanced case-control ratio, these analyses could result in inflated type I error. One cost-effective solution to increase statistical power is exploitation of available family history (FH) that contains valuable information about disease heritability. Here, we develop methods to address the aforementioned type I error issues while providing optimal power to analyze aggregates of rare variants by incorporating additional information from FH. With enhanced power in these methods exploiting FH and accounting for relatedness and unbalanced designs, we successfully detect genes with suggestive associations with Alzheimer disease, dementia, and type 2 diabetes by using the exome chip data from the Framingham Heart Study.

Association of Incident Stroke Risk With an IL-18-Centered Inflammatory Network Biomarker Composite.

BACKGROUND: A coordinated network of circulating inflammatory molecules centered on the pleotropic pro-atherogenic cytokine interleukin-18 (IL-18) is linked to cerebral small vessel disease. We sought to validate the association of this inflammatory biomarker network with incident stroke risk, cognitive impairment, and imaging metrics in a sample of the Framingham Offspring Cohort. METHODS: Using available baseline measurements of serum levels of IL-18, GDF (growth and differentiation factor)-15, soluble form of receptor for advanced glycation end products, myeloperoxidase, and MCP-1 (monocyte chemoattractant protein-1) from Exam 7 of the Framingham Offspring Cohort (1998-2001), we constructed a population-normalized, equally weighted log-transformed mean Z-score value representing the average level of each serum analyte to create an inflammatory composite score (ICS5). Multivariable regression models were used to determine the association of ICS5 with incident stroke, brain magnetic resonance imaging features, and cognitive testing performance. RESULTS: We found a significant association between ICS5 score and increased risk for incident all-cause stroke (hazard ratio, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.05-2.08]; P=0.024) and ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.03-2.21]; P=0.033) in the Exam 7 cohort of 2201 subjects (mean age 62±9 years; 54% female) aged 45+ years with an all-cause incident stroke rate of 6.1% (135/2201) and ischemic stroke rate of 4.9% (108/2201). ICS5 and its component serum markers are all associated with the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile score (ß±SE, 0.19±0.02; P<0.0001). In addition, we found a significant inverse association of ICS5 with a global cognitive score, derived from a principal components analysis of the neuropsychological battery used in the Framingham cohort (-0.08±0.03; P=0.019). No association of ICS5 with magnetic resonance imaging metrics of cerebral small vessel disease was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating serum levels of inflammatory biomarkers centered on IL-18 are associated with an increased risk of stroke and cognitive impairment in the Framingham Offspring Cohort. Linking specific inflammatory pathways to cerebral small vessel disease may enhance individualized quantitative risk assessment for future stroke and vascular cognitive impairment.

Impaired Kidney Function, Cerebral Small Vessel Disease and Cognitive Disorders: The Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: It remains unclear if the relation of chronic kidney disease (CKD) with cognitive dysfunction is independent of blood pressure (BP). We evaluated kidney function in relation to premorbid BP measurements, cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) and incident mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia in Framingham Offspring Cohort participants. METHODS: We included Framingham Offspring participants free of dementia, attending an examination during midlife (exam cycle 6, baseline) for ascertainment of kidney function status, with brain MRI late in life (exam cycles 7-9), cognitive outcome data and available interim hypertension and blood pressure assessments. We related CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 ml/min/1.73m2) and albuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥ 30 mg/g) to CSVD markers and cognitive outcomes using multivariable regression analyses. RESULTS: Among 2604 participants (mean age 67.4 ± 9.2, 64% women, 7% had CKD and 9% albuminuria), albuminuria was independently associated with covert infarcts (adjusted OR, 1.55 [1.00-2.38]; P = 0.049) and incident MCI and dementia (adjusted HR, 1.68 [1.18-2.41]; P = 0.005 and 1.71, [1.11-2.64]; P = 0.015, respectively). CKD was not associated with CSVD markers but was associated with higher risk of incident dementia (HR, 1.53 [1.02-2.29]; P = 0.041), While albuminuria was predictive of the Alzheimer's disease subtype (Adjusted HR = 1.68, [1.03-2.74]; P = 0.04), CKD was predictive of vascular dementia (Adjusted HR, 2.78, [1.16-6.68]; P = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS: Kidney disease was associated with CSVD and cognitive disorders in asymptomatic community dwelling participants. The relation was independent of premorbid BP, suggesting that the link between kidney and brain disease may involve additional mechanisms beyond blood pressure related injury.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, liver fibrosis, and structural brain imaging: The Cross-Cohort Collaboration.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Prior studies reported conflicting findings regarding the association of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and liver fibrosis with measures of brain health. We examined whether NAFLD and liver fibrosis are associated with structural brain imaging measures in middle- and old-age adults. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study among dementia- and stroke-free individuals, data were pooled from the Offspring and Third Generation cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), the Rotterdam Study (RS), and the Study of Health in Pomerania. NAFLD was assessed through abdominal imaging. Transient hepatic elastography (FibroScan) was used to assess liver fibrosis in FHS and RS. Linear regression models were used to explore the relation of NAFLD and liver fibrosis with brain volumes, including total brain, gray matter, hippocampus, and white matter hyperintensities, adjusting for potential confounders. Results were combined using fixed effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: In total, 5660 and 3022 individuals were included for NAFLD and liver fibrosis analyses, respectively. NAFLD was associated with smaller volumes of total brain (ß = -3.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -5.4 to -1.7), total gray matter (ß = -1.9, 95% CI = -3.4 to -0.3), and total cortical gray matter (ß = -1.9, 95% CI = -3.7 to -0.01). In addition, liver fibrosis (defined as liver stiffness measure ≥8.2 kPa) was related to smaller total brain volumes (ß = -7.3, 95% CI = -11.1 to -3.5). Heterogeneity between studies was low. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD and liver fibrosis may be directly related to brain aging. Larger and prospective studies are warranted to validate these findings and identify liver-related preventive strategies for neurodegeneration.

The association between levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor and comorbid depression in patients with cardiovascular disease: The Framingham Heart Study.

AIM: The current study aims to investigate the association of serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) levels with symptoms of depression in adults with and without prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD), an often burdensome comorbidity. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included participants from FHS (Framingham Heart Study) who had available serum BDNF levels. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D) with a score ≥16 indicating mild to moderate and ≥21 severe depression. Participants taking antidepressant medications were excluded from the study. RESULTS: Altogether 3716 FHS participants were included in the final analysis (mean age, 64.3 ± 11.5 years; 55% women). After adjusting for potential confounders, greater BDNF levels were associated with reduced severe depression risk (odds ratio [OR], 0.78 [95% CI, 0.64-0.96]; P = 0.016). Among participants with CVD, greater BDNF levels were related to lower risk of depressive symptoms (CES-D ≥ 16 OR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.45-0.89], P = 0.008; CES-D ≥ 21 OR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.31-0.76], P = 0.002). The inverse relationship between BDNF and depressive symptom risk was present in women with CVD (CES-D ≥ 16 OR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.40-0.99], P = 0.047; CES-D ≥ 21 OR, 0.38 [95% CI, 0.21-0.70], P = 0.002) but not in men. CONCLUSION: Lower serum BDNF levels are associated with a higher risk of depressive symptoms in CVD, particularly among women. These findings implicate BDNF in the complex biological mechanisms that underlie prior associations observed between CVD and depression. To reduce the burden of depression in the large proportion of midlife and older adults with CVD, a better understanding of how BDNF may modify these pathways is merited.

A novel neuroimaging signature for ADRD risk stratification in the community.

INTRODUCTION: Early risk stratification for clinical dementia could lead to preventive therapies. We identified and validated a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) signature for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias (ARDR). METHODS: An MRI ADRD signature was derived from cortical thickness maps in Framingham Heart Study (FHS) participants with AD dementia and matched controls. The signature was related to the risk of ADRD and cognitive function in FHS. Results were replicated in the University of California Davis Alzheimer's Disease Research Center (UCD-ADRC) cohort. RESULTS: Participants in the bottom quartile of the signature had more than three times increased risk for ADRD compared to those in the upper three quartiles (P < 0.001). Greater thickness in the signature was related to better general cognition (P < 0.01) and episodic memory (P = 0.01). Results replicated in UCD-ADRC. DISCUSSION: We identified a robust neuroimaging biomarker for persons at increased risk of ADRD. Other cohorts will further test the validity of this biomarker.

Temporal Trends in the Remaining Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among Middle-Aged Adults Across 6 Decades: The Framingham Study.

BACKGROUND: The remaining lifetime risk (RLR) is the probability of developing an outcome over the remainder of one's lifespan at any given age. The RLR for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in three 20-year periods were assessed using data from a single community-based cohort study of predominantly White participants. METHODS: Longitudinal data from the Framingham study in 3 epochs (epoch 1, 1960-1979; epoch 2, 1980-1999; epoch 3, 2000-2018) were evaluated. The RLR of a first ASCVD event (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or stroke) from 45 years of age (adjusting for competing risk of death) in the 3 epochs were compared overall, and according to the following strata: sex, body mass index, blood pressure and cholesterol categories, diabetes, smoking, and Framingham risk score groups. RESULTS: There were 317 849 person-years of observations during the 3 epochs (56% women; 94% White) and 4855 deaths occurred. Life expectancy rose by 10.1 years (men) to 11.9 years (women) across the 3 epochs. There were 1085 ASCVD events over the course of 91 330 person-years in epoch 1, 1330 ASCVD events over the course of 107 450 person-years in epoch 2, and 775 ASCVD events over the course of 119 069 person-years in epoch 3. The mean age at onset of first ASCVD event was greater in the third epoch by 8.1 years (men) to 10.3 years (women) compared with the first epoch. The RLR of ASCVD from 45 years of age declined from 43.7% in epoch 1 to 28.1% in epoch 3 (P<0.0001), a finding that was consistent in both sexes (RLR [epoch 1 versus epoch 3], 36.3% versus 26.5% [women]; 52.5% versus 30.1% [men]; P<0.001 for both). The lower RLR of ASCVD in the last 2 epochs was observed consistently across body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes, smoking, and Framingham risk score strata (P<0.001 for all). The RLR of coronary heart disease events and stroke declined in both sexes (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Over the past 6 decades, mean life expectancy increased and the RLR of ASCVD decreased in the community-based, predominantly White Framingham study. The residual burden of ASCVD underscores the importance of continued and effective primary prevention efforts with better screening for risk factors and their effective treatment.

Genome-wide meta-analyses reveal novel loci for verbal short-term memory and learning.

Understanding the genomic basis of memory processes may help in combating neurodegenerative disorders. Hence, we examined the associations of common genetic variants with verbal short-term memory and verbal learning in adults without dementia or stroke (N = 53,637). We identified novel loci in the intronic region of CDH18, and at 13q21 and 3p21.1, as well as an expected signal in the APOE/APOC1/TOMM40 region. These results replicated in an independent sample. Functional and bioinformatic analyses supported many of these loci and further implicated POC1. We showed that polygenic score for verbal learning associated with brain activation in right parieto-occipital region during working memory task. Finally, we showed genetic correlations of these memory traits with several neurocognitive and health outcomes. Our findings suggest a role of several genomic loci in verbal memory processes.

Gene-mapping study of extremes of cerebral small vessel disease reveals TRIM47 as a strong candidate.

Cerebral small vessel disease is a leading cause of stroke and a major contributor to cognitive decline and dementia, but our understanding of specific genes underlying the cause of sporadic cerebral small vessel disease is limited. We report a genome-wide association study and a whole-exome association study on a composite extreme phenotype of cerebral small vessel disease derived from its most common MRI features: white matter hyperintensities and lacunes. Seventeen population-based cohorts of older persons with MRI measurements and genome-wide genotyping (n = 41 326), whole-exome sequencing (n = 15 965), or exome chip (n = 5249) data contributed 13 776 and 7079 extreme small vessel disease samples for the genome-wide association study and whole-exome association study, respectively. The genome-wide association study identified significant association of common variants in 11 loci with extreme small vessel disease, of which the chr12q24.11 locus was not previously reported to be associated with any MRI marker of cerebral small vessel disease. The whole-exome association study identified significant associations of extreme small vessel disease with common variants in the 5' UTR region of EFEMP1 (chr2p16.1) and one probably damaging common missense variant in TRIM47 (chr17q25.1). Mendelian randomization supports the causal association of extensive small vessel disease severity with increased risk of stroke and Alzheimer's disease. Combined evidence from summary-based Mendelian randomization studies and profiling of human loss-of-function allele carriers showed an inverse relation between TRIM47 expression in the brain and blood vessels and extensive small vessel disease severity. We observed significant enrichment of Trim47 in isolated brain vessel preparations compared to total brain fraction in mice, in line with the literature showing Trim47 enrichment in brain endothelial cells at single cell level. Functional evaluation of TRIM47 by small interfering RNAs-mediated knockdown in human brain endothelial cells showed increased endothelial permeability, an important hallmark of cerebral small vessel disease pathology. Overall, our comprehensive gene-mapping study and preliminary functional evaluation suggests a putative role of TRIM47 in the pathophysiology of cerebral small vessel disease, making it an important candidate for extensive in vivo explorations and future translational work.

Obesity impacts the expression of Alzheimer's disease-related genes: The Framingham Heart Study.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated associations of obesity with the expression of Alzheimer's disease (AD)-related genes in a large community-based cohort. METHODS: The sample consisted of 5619 participants from the Framingham Heart Study. Obesity metrics included body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). Gene expression was measured for a set of 74 AD-related genes, derived by integrating genome-wide association study results with functional genomics data. RESULTS: Obesity metrics were associated with the expression of 21 AD-related genes. The strongest associations were observed with CLU, CD2AP, KLC3, and FCER1G. Unique associations were noted with TSPAN14, SLC24A4 for BMI, and ZSCAN21, BCKDK for WHR. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, 13 associations remained significant for BMI and 8 for WHR. Dichotomous obesity metrics exhibited unique associations with EPHX2 for BMI, and with TSPAN14 for WHR. DISCUSSION: Obesity was associated with AD-related gene expression; these findings shed light on the molecular pathways linking obesity to AD.

Higher Dietary Inflammatory Index scores are associated with brain MRI markers of brain aging: Results from the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated cross-sectional associations between the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) and measures of brain volume and cerebral small vessel disease among participants of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort. METHODS: A total of 1897 participants (mean ± standard deviation, age 62±9) completed Food Frequency Questionnaires and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). RESULTS: Higher (pro-inflammatory) DII scores, averaged across a maximum of three time points, were associated with smaller total brain volume (beta ± standard error: -0.16 ± 0.03; P < .0001) after adjustment for demographic, clinical, and lifestyle covariates. In addition, higher DII scores were associated with smaller total gray matter volume (-0.08 ± 0.03; P = .003) and larger lateral ventricular volume (0.04 ± 0.02; P = .03). No associations were observed with other brain MRI measures. DISCUSSION: Our findings showed associations between higher DII scores and global brain MRI measures. As we are one of the first groups to report on the associations between higher DII scores and brain volume, replication is needed to confirm our findings.

Whole-Genome Sequencing Association Analyses of Stroke and Its Subtypes in Ancestrally Diverse Populations From Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine Project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is the leading cause of death and long-term disability worldwide. Previous genome-wide association studies identified 51 loci associated with stroke (mostly ischemic) and its subtypes among predominantly European populations. Using whole-genome sequencing in ancestrally diverse populations from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Program, we aimed to identify novel variants, especially low-frequency or ancestry-specific variants, associated with all stroke, ischemic stroke and its subtypes (large artery, cardioembolic, and small vessel), and hemorrhagic stroke and its subtypes (intracerebral and subarachnoid). METHODS: Whole-genome sequencing data were available for 6833 stroke cases and 27 116 controls, including 22 315 European, 7877 Black, 2616 Hispanic/Latino, 850 Asian, 54 Native American, and 237 other ancestry participants. In TOPMed, we performed single variant association analysis examining 40 million common variants and aggregated association analysis focusing on rare variants. We also combined TOPMed European populations with over 28 000 additional European participants from the UK BioBank genome-wide array data through meta-analysis. RESULTS: In the single variant association analysis in TOPMed, we identified one novel locus 13q33 for large artery at whole-genome-wide significance (P<5.00×10-9) and 4 novel loci at genome-wide significance (P<5.00×10-8), all of which need confirmation in independent studies. Lead variants in all 5 loci are low-frequency but are more common in non-European populations. An aggregation of synonymous rare variants within the gene C6orf26 demonstrated suggestive evidence of association for hemorrhagic stroke (P<3.11×10-6). By meta-analyzing European ancestry samples in TOPMed and UK BioBank, we replicated several previously reported stroke loci including PITX2, HDAC9, ZFHX3, and LRCH1. CONCLUSIONS: We represent the first association analysis for stroke and its subtypes using whole-genome sequencing data from ancestrally diverse populations. While our findings suggest the potential benefits of combining whole-genome sequencing data with populations of diverse genetic backgrounds to identify possible low-frequency or ancestry-specific variants, they also highlight the need to increase genome coverage and sample sizes.

Joint Models for Estimating Determinants of Cognitive Decline in the Presence of Survival Bias.

BACKGROUND: Identifying determinants of cognitive decline is crucial for developing strategies to prevent Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. However, determinants of cognitive decline remain elusive, with inconsistent results across studies. One reason could be differential survival. Cognitive decline and many exposures of interest are associated with mortality making survival a collider. Not accounting for informative attrition can result in survival bias. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) and linear mixed-effects model (LME) are commonly used to estimate effects of exposures on cognitive decline, but both assume mortality is not informative. Joint models combine LME with Cox proportional hazards models to simultaneously estimate cognitive decline and the hazard of mortality. METHODS: Using simulations, we compared estimates of the effect of a binary exposure on rate of cognitive decline from GEE, weighted GEE using inverse-probability-of-attrition weights, and LME to joint models under several causal structures of survival bias. RESULTS: We found that joint models with correctly specified relationship between survival and cognition performed best, producing unbiased estimates and appropriate coverage. Even those with misspecified relationship between survival and cognition showed advantage under causal structures consistent with survival bias. We also compared these models in estimating the effect of education on cognitive decline after dementia diagnosis using Framingham Heart Study data. Estimates of the effect of education on cognitive decline from joint models were slightly attenuated with similar precision compared with LME. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, joint models were more robust than LME, GEE, and weighted GEE models when evaluating determinants of cognitive decline.

Vascular risk factors as predictors of epilepsy in older age: The Framingham Heart Study.

OBJECTIVE: Stroke is the most common cause of epilepsy in older age. Subclinical cerebrovascular disease is believed to underlie some of the 30%-50% of late-onset epilepsy without a known cause (Li et al. Epilepsia. 1997;38:1216; Cleary et al. Lancet. 2004;363:1184). We studied the role of modifiable vascular risk factors in predicting subsequent epilepsy among participants ages 45 or older in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), a longitudinal, community-based study. METHODS: Participants of the Offspring Cohort who attended FHS exam 5 (1991-1995) were included who were at least 45-years-old at that time, had available vascular risk factor data, and epilepsy follow-up (n = 2986, mean age 58, 48% male). Adjudication of epilepsy cases included review of medical charts to exclude seizure mimics and acute symptomatic seizures. The vascular risk factors studied included hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and hyperlipidemia. The role of the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile score was also investigated. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for the analyses. RESULTS: Fifty-five incident epilepsy cases were identified during a mean of 19 years of follow-up. Hypertension was associated with a near 2-fold risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10-3.37, p = .022) of developing epilepsy, even after adjustment for prevalent and interim stroke. In secondary analysis, excluding patients with normal blood pressure who were receiving anti-HTN (anti-hypertensive) treatment (n = 2613, 50 incident epilepsy cases) the association was (HR: 2.44, 95% CI: 1.36-4.35, p = .003). SIGNIFICANCE: Our results offer further evidence that hypertension, a potentially modifiable and highly prevalent vascular risk factor in the general population, increases 2- to 2.5-fold the risk of developing late-onset epilepsy.

A comparison of statistical methods to predict the residual lifetime risk.

Lifetime risk measures the cumulative risk for developing a disease over one's lifespan. Modeling the lifetime risk must account for left truncation, the competing risk of death, and inference at a fixed age. In addition, statistical methods to predict the lifetime risk should account for covariate-outcome associations that change with age. In this paper, we review and compare statistical methods to predict the lifetime risk. We first consider a generalized linear model for the lifetime risk using pseudo-observations of the Aalen-Johansen estimator at a fixed age, allowing for left truncation. We also consider modeling the subdistribution hazard with Fine-Gray and Royston-Parmar flexible parametric models in left truncated data with time-covariate interactions, and using these models to predict lifetime risk. In simulation studies, we found the pseudo-observation approach had the least bias, particularly in settings with crossing or converging cumulative incidence curves. We illustrate our method by modeling the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation in the Framingham Heart Study. We provide technical guidance to replicate all analyses in R.

Insomnia symptom severity and cognitive performance: Moderating role of APOE genotype.

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated whether insomnia symptom severity was associated with cognitive function, and whether this relationship was modified by biomarkers associated with Alzheimer's disease risk. METHODS: We examined insomnia symptoms and neuropsychological performance 3.4 years later in 511 dementia-free Framingham Heart Study participants (62.65 ± 8.7 years, 50.9% male). Additionally, we explored insomnia symptoms combined with self-reported short habitual sleep duration and effect modification by apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele status. RESULTS: More severe insomnia symptoms were associated with lower performance on global cognition, and immediate and delayed Logical Memory recall, especially when insomnia symptoms were combined with short sleep duration. The association between insomnia symptoms and poorer memory recall was more pronounced in APOE ε4 allele carriers. DISCUSSION: Insomnia symptom severity was associated with worse subsequent global cognitive and memory performance, which was especially apparent in APOE ε4 allele carriers, suggesting that poor sleep might be particularly detrimental when the brain is already vulnerable to neurodegeneration.

Autonomic Imbalance and Risk of Dementia and Stroke: The Framingham Study.

Background and Purpose: The autonomic nervous system has been implicated in stroke and dementia pathophysiology. High resting heart rate and low heart rate variability indicate the effect of autonomic imbalance on the heart. We examined the associations of resting heart rate and heart rate variability with incident stroke and dementia in a community-based cohort of middle- and old-aged adults. Methods: The study sample included 1581 participants aged >60 years and 3271 participants aged >45 years evaluated for incident dementia and stroke, respectively, who participated in the Framingham Offspring cohort third (1983­1987) examination and had follow-up for neurology events after the seventh (1998­2001) examination. Heart rate variability was assessed through the standard deviation (SD) of normal-to-normal RR intervals and the root mean square of successive differences between normal heartbeats from 2-hour Holter monitor. Participants were followed-up for stroke and dementia incidence from exam 7 to a maximum of 10 years. Cox regression models were used to assess the link of resting heart rate and heart rate variability with stroke and dementia risk while adjusting for potential confounders, and interactions with age and sex were assessed. Results: Of the dementia (mean age, 55±6 years, 46% men) and stroke (mean age, 48±9 years, 46% men) samples, 133 and 127 developed dementia and stroke, respectively, during the follow-up. Overall, autonomic imbalance was not associated with dementia risk. However, age modified the associations such that SD of normal-to-normal intervals and root mean square of successive differences were associated with dementia risk in older people (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] per 1SD, 0.61 [0.38­0.99] and HR [95% CI] per 1SD, 0.34 [0.15­0.74], respectively). High resting heart rate was associated with increased stroke risk (HR [95% CI] per 10 bpm, 1.18 [1.01­1.39]), and high SD of normal-to-normal intervals was associated with lower stroke risk in men (HR [95% CI] per 1SD, 0.46 [0.26­0.79]) but not women (HR [95% CI] per 1SD, 1.25 [0.88­1.79]; P for interaction=0.003). Conclusions: Some measures of cardiac autonomic imbalance may precede dementia and stroke occurrence, particularly in older ages and men, respectively.

Digital Peripheral Arterial Tonometry and Cardiovascular Disease Events: The Framingham Heart Study.

Background and Purpose: Novel noninvasive measures of vascular function are emerging as subclinical markers for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and may be useful to predict CVD events. The purpose of our prospective study was to assess associations between digital peripheral arterial tonometry (PAT) measures and first-onset major CVD events in a sample of FHS (Framingham Heart Study) participants. Methods: Using a fingertip PAT device, we assessed pulse amplitude in Framingham Offspring and Third Generation participants (n=3865; mean age, 55±14 years; 52% women) at baseline and in 30-second intervals for 4 minutes during reactive hyperemia. The PAT ratio (relative hyperemia index) was calculated as the post-to-pre occlusion pulse signal ratio in the occluded arm, relative to the same ratio in the control (nonoccluded) arm, and corrected for baseline vascular tone. Baseline pulse amplitude and PAT ratio during hyperemia are measures of pressure pulsatility and microvascular function in the finger, respectively. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to relate PAT measures in the fingertip to incident CVD events. Results: During follow-up (median, 9.2 years; range, 0.04­10.0 years), 270 participants (7%) experienced new-onset CVD events (n=270). In multivariable models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, baseline pulse amplitude (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.90­1.21]; P=0.57) and PAT ratio (HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.84­1.08]; P=0.43) were not significantly related to incident composite CVD events, including myocardial infarction or heart failure. However, higher PAT ratio (HR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.61­0.94]; P=0.013), but not baseline pulse amplitude (HR, 1.15 [95% CI, 0.89­1.49]; P=0.29), was related to lower risk for incident stroke. In a sensitivity analysis by stroke subtype, higher PAT ratio was related to lower risk of incident ischemic stroke events (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.53­0.86]; P=0.001). Conclusions: Novel digital PAT measures may represent a marker of stroke risk in the community.

Circulating Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 and Risk of Stroke: Meta-Analysis of Population-Based Studies Involving 17 180 Individuals.

Rationale: Proinflammatory cytokines have been identified as potential targets for lowering vascular risk. Experimental evidence and Mendelian randomization suggest a role of MCP-1 (monocyte chemoattractant protein-1) in atherosclerosis and stroke. However, data from large-scale observational studies are lacking. Objective: To determine whether circulating levels of MCP-1 are associated with risk of incident stroke in the general population. Methods and Results: We used previously unpublished data on 17 180 stroke-free individuals (mean age, 56.7±8.1 years; 48.8% men) from 6 population-based prospective cohort studies and explored associations between baseline circulating MCP-1 levels and risk of any stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke during a mean follow-up interval of 16.3 years (280 522 person-years at risk; 1435 incident stroke events). We applied Cox proportional-hazards models and pooled hazard ratios (HRs) using random-effects meta-analyses. After adjustments for age, sex, race, and vascular risk factors, higher MCP-1 levels were associated with increased risk of any stroke (HR per 1-SD increment in ln-transformed MCP-1, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.14). Focusing on stroke subtypes, we found a significant association between baseline MCP-1 levels and higher risk of ischemic stroke (HR, 1.11 [1.02-1.21]) but not hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 1.02 [0.82-1.29]). The results followed a dose-response pattern with a higher risk of ischemic stroke among individuals in the upper quartiles of MCP-1 levels as compared with the first quartile (HRs, second quartile: 1.19 [1.00-1.42]; third quartile: 1.35 [1.14-1.59]; fourth quartile: 1.38 [1.07-1.77]). There was no indication for heterogeneity across studies, and in a subsample of 4 studies (12 516 individuals), the risk estimates were stable after additional adjustments for circulating levels of IL (interleukin)-6 and high-sensitivity CRP (C-reactive protein). Conclusions: Higher circulating levels of MCP-1 are associated with increased long-term risk of stroke. Our findings along with genetic and experimental evidence suggest that MCP-1 signaling might represent a therapeutic target to lower stroke risk.Visual Overview: An online visual overview is available for this article.

Associations of the Mediterranean-Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay diet with cardiac remodelling in the community: the Framingham Heart Study.

Normal cardiac function is directly associated with the maintenance of cerebrovascular health. Whether the Mediterranean-Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay (MIND) diet, designed for the maintenance of neurocognitive health, is associated with cardiac remodelling is unknown. We evaluated 2512 Framingham Offspring Cohort participants who attended the eighth examination cycle and had available dietary and echocardiographic data (mean age 66 years; 55 % women). Using multivariable regression, we related the cumulative MIND diet score (independent variable) to left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction, left atrial emptying fraction, LV mass (LVM), E/e' ratio (dependent variables; primary), global longitudinal strain, global circumferential strain (GCS), mitral annular plane systolic excursion, longitudinal segmental synchrony, LV hypertrophy and aortic root diameter (secondary). Adjusting for age, sex and energy intake, higher cumulative MIND diet scores were associated with lower values of indices of LV diastolic (E/e' ratio: logß = -0·03) and systolic function (GCS: ß = -0·04) and with higher values of LVM (logß = 0·02), all P ≤ 0·01. We observed effect modification by age in the association between the cumulative MIND diet score and GCS. When we further adjusted for clinical risk factors, the associations of the cumulative MIND diet score with GCS in participants ≥66 years (ß = -0·06, P = 0·005) and LVM remained significant. In our community-based sample, relations between the cumulative MIND diet score and cardiac remodelling differ among indices of LV structure and function. Our results suggest that favourable associations between a higher cumulative MIND diet score and indices of LV function may be influenced by cardiometabolic and lifestyle risk factors.