Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan.

We engaged in a participatory modeling approach with health sector stakeholders in Jordan to support government decision-making regarding implementing public health measures to mitigate COVID-19 disease burden. We considered the effect of 4 physical distancing strategies on reducing COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Jordan during March 2020-January 2021: no physical distancing; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed once a week; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed twice a week; and a permanent physical distancing intervention. Modeling showed that the fourth strategy would be most effective in reducing cases and deaths; however, this approach was only marginally beneficial to reducing COVID-19 disease compared with an intermittently enforced physical distancing intervention. Scenario-based model influenced policy-making and the evolution of the pandemic in Jordan confirmed the forecasting provided by the modeling exercise and helped confirm the effectiveness of the policy adopted by the government of Jordan.

Socioeconomic variations in risky sexual behavior among adolescents in 14 sub-Saharan Africa countries who report ever having had sex.

BACKGROUND: Equity is a guiding principle of the Global Strategy for Women, Children and Adolescents' Health (2016-2030) aimed at improving adolescent health and responding more effectively to adolescents' needs. We investigated the socioeconomic differentials in having multiple sexual partners and condom use among unmarried adolescents who reported ever having had sex aged 15-19 years in 14 sub-Saharan countries. METHODS: Using the most recent publicly available Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2011 and 2018, we calculated survey- and sex-specific proportions of two or more partners and condomless sex, both overall and by selected socioeconomic characteristics and we fitted logistic regression models to estimate the survey- and sex-specific adjusted odds ratios. The pooled adjusted odds ratios were estimated using multilevel logistic regression. RESULTS: In most countries, higher percentages of male adolescents than female adolescents reported having more than one partner in the last 12 months. Conversely, a lower percentage of young male reported having condomless sex when compared to young female: from 19.8% in Gabon to 84.5% in Sierra Leone among male adolescents and from 32.6% in Gabon to 93.2% in Sierra Leone among female adolescents. In the multilevel analyses, condomless sex was associated with place of residence, wealth and schooling for both female and male adolescents, while among male adolescents multiple partnerships was significantly associated with place of residence. CONCLUSION: Our findings on disparities in condomless sex associated with socioeconomic characteristics might reflect constraint choice and decision making. Results also suggest the need for educational programming and services and better access to barrier methods.

Iron deficiency anaemia and low BMI among adolescent girls in India: the transition from 2005 to 2015.

OBJECTIVE: The current study explored changes in trend of anaemia and BMI among currently pregnant nullipara adolescent women against socio-economic determinants in India from 2005 through 2015. The association between anaemia in currently pregnant nullipara adolescent women v. currently pregnant nullipara older women of reproductive age was also explored. DESIGN: We used the 2005 and the 2015 nationally representative Indian Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). The outcomes of interest, anaemia and BMI, were measured based on the DHS methodology following WHO standards and indicators. Place of residence, educational attainment and wealth quintiles were used as determinants in the analysis. SETTING: India. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 696 adolescent girls from the India 2005 DHS and 3041 adolescent girls from the India 2015 DHS. RESULTS: The 10-year transition from 2005 to 2015 showed differences between the least and most wealthy sections of society, with heaviest gains in anaemia reduction over time among the latter (from 50·0 to < 40·0 %). The odds of anaemia were significantly higher among the adolescent population when compared with adult women both in 2005 and in 2015 (OR = 1·2). CONCLUSIONS: Despite an overall improvement in the prevalence of both BMI < 18·5 and anaemia among adolescents nullipara in India, the adjusted risk of anaemia in the latter category was still significantly higher as compared with their adult counterparts. Since the inequalities evidenced during the first round of DHS remained unchanged in 2015, more investments in universal health care are needed in India.

Six things to know about the homicides of doctors: a review of 30 years from Italy.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers have a 16 times greater risk of suffering workplace violence than workers in other sectors and around 50% experience workplace violence in the course of their career. The objective of this study is to explore the characteristics and circumstances of work-related killings of doctors. METHODS: Work-related homicides of doctors over the period 1988-2019 were identified retrospectively through the Italian national statistical agencies. Variables such as perpetrator, motive and location of the crime were obtained through forensic psychiatric work. After classification, the absolute and percent values of the main characteristics of the homicides were calculated. RESULTS: Over the period considered, 21 doctors were killed in Italy in connection with their professional activity. In 52% (n = 11) of cases, the killer was one of the doctor's patients, in 29% (n = 6) of cases it was a patient's relative, in 19% (n = 4) an occasional patient (first consultation). The location of the homicide was a community clinic in 48% (n = 10) of cases, the street in 19% (n = 4) of cases, the doctor's home in 14% (n = 3), the hospital in 14% (n = 3) and the patient's home in 5% (n = 1). In 57% (n = 12) of cases the perpetrator was not affected by any mental disorders. The motive for the homicide was revenge in 66.7% (n = 14) of cases; in 28.6% (n = 6) the revenge was preceded by stalking. CONCLUSIONS: Doctors should be aware that the risk of being killed is not limited to hospital settings and that their patients' family members might also pose a threat to them.

Place of birth for unintended pregnancies in six former Soviet Union countries.

OBJECTIVE: This paper aims at exploring the association between unintended pregnancies and place of birth in six Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A secondary analysis of the latest cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys of six FSU countries from 2005 through 2012 was conducted. Prevalence of institutional births and unintended pregnancies was estimated by country and for the pooled population. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to measure the country and pooled association between pregnancy intention and institutional birth. RESULTS: Institutional births occurred in 90.4% of the overall study population and ranged from 78.2% in Tajikistan to 99.7% in Ukraine Demographic and Health Survey. Around one out of 10 pregnancies resulted unintended. In the pooled analysis, unintended pregnancies were significantly associated with giving births outside health facility (aOR1.2; 95% CI 1.0-1.6). CONCLUSION: Based on the study findings we suggest that increase awareness of benefit of skilled delivery care is needed among women with poor access to family planning.

Report of the "satisfaction" survey amongst public health services nurses in Port Said.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of evidence regarding the job experience of nurses in Egypt. An unpublished previous pilot study conducted in the Port Said Technical Nursing Institute, which was based on 36 participants, showed that almost half of nurses were satisfied with their job; on the other hand, nurses indicated low salaries and high work-loads as main reasons for dissatisfaction. We explored job satisfaction of nurses working in public health services of the Port Said Governorate to inform future healthcare policy. METHODS: A cross-sectional study including nurses from different public health services was conducted. Questionnaires were delivered in a sample of primary health care facilities as well as in the Port Said Governorate public hospital. Following a literature review, eight components were identified as contributors to job satisfaction; two closed questions for each of the eight components and two open questions were devised for a total of 18 questions. RESULTS: The final study population consisted of 285 individuals. Almost 40.0% of the participants felt safe in their clinical environment while around 10.0% disagree on this. Almost 70.0% of participants complained about high work-load due to shortage of staff in the respective clinical area. Almost 85.0% of nurses reported that their salary did not cover living cost while only 13.0% indicated earning a fair salary. Almost 60.0% agreed with the fact that they have regular opportunities to develop in their career. CONCLUSION: Increasing job satisfaction among nurses in Egypt is critical to ensure quality of care for patients. Issues such as salary, staffing and cooperation with colleagues deserve specific attention.

Direct Endoscopic Necrosectomy: Timing and Technique.

Walled-off pancreatic necrosis (WOPN) is one of the local complications of acute pancreatitis (AP). Several interventional techniques have been developed over the last few years. The purpose of this narrative review is to explore such methodologies, with specific focus on endoscopic drainage and direct endoscopic necrosectomy (DEN), through evaluation of their indications and timing for intervention. Findings indicated how, after the introduction of lumen-apposing metal stents (LAMS), DEN is becoming the favorite technique to treat WOPN, especially when large solid debris or infection are present. Additionally, DEN is associated with a lower adverse events rate and hospital stay, and with improved clinical outcome.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 medical solid waste treatment: A need for efficient and effective strategies in low-resourced settings.

Understanding infections related to handling healthcare waste products is of critical importance and the application of simple and low-cost strategies remain a priority in low-income and middle-income countries to protect healthcare workers. We examined the potential effect of relative humidity (RH), air temperature and ultraviolet irradiation (UI) to establish an efficient and effective way to facilitate disposal of medical waste. Literature is emerging on the effect of high RH and high temperature, which would increase airborne mass deposition and decrease the viability of viruses in both airborne particles and on surfaces. On the other hand, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 has been proven to be susceptible to UI when suspended in air like other coronaviruses. An innovative approach utilizing environmental conditions might represent an effective and efficient way to ensure better and sustainable protection of the healthcare workers in low-resourced settings.

Health consequences of drought in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region: hotspot areas and needed actions.

BACKGROUND: Over the past four decades, drought episodes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) of the of the World Health Organization (WHO) have gradually become more widespread, prolonged and frequent. We aimed to map hotspot countries and identified key strategic actions for health consequences. METHODS: We reviewed scientific literature and WHO EMR documentation on trends and patterns of the drought health consequences from 1990 through 2019. Extensive communication was also carried out with EMR WHO country offices to retrieve information on ongoing initiatives to face health consequences due to drought. An index score was developed to categorize countries according vulnerability factors towards drought. RESULTS: A series of complex health consequences are due to drought in EMR, including malnutrition, vector-borne diseases, and water-borne diseases. The index score indicated how Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia are "hotspots" due to poor population health status and access to basic sanitation as well as other elements such as food insecurity, displacement and conflicts/political instability. WHO country offices effort is towards enhancing access to water and sanitation and essential healthcare services including immunization and psychological support, strengthening disease surveillance and response, and risk communication. CONCLUSIONS: Drought-related health effects in the WHO EMR represent a public health emergency. Strengthening mitigation activities and additional tailored efforts are urgently needed to overcome context-specific gaps and weaknesses, with specific focus on financing, accountability and enhanced data availability.

Is female genital mutilation associated with eclampsia? Evidence from a nationally representative survey data.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown the impact of female genital mutilation (FGM), especially infibulation (WHO type III), on reproductive health, and adverse obstetric outcomes like postpartum haemorrhage and obstructed labour. However, whether an association exists with maternal hypertensive complication is not known. The present study sought to investigate the role of the different types of FGM on the occurrence of eclampsia. METHODS: The study used data from the 2006 Demographic and health survey of Mali. The proportion of eclampsia in women with each type of FGM and the unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (OR) were calculated, using women without FGM as reference group. Unadjusted and adjusted OR were also calculated for women who underwent infibulation compared to the rest of the population under study (women without FGM and women with FGM type I, II, and IV). RESULTS: In the 3997 women included, the prevalence of infibulation was 10.2% (n = 407) while 331 women did not report FGM (8.3%). The proportion of women reporting signs and symptoms suggestive of eclampsia was 5.9% (n = 234). Compared with the absence of female genital mutilation and adjusted for covariates, infibulation was associated with eclampsia (aOR 2.5; 95% CI:1.4-4.6), while the association was not significant in women with other categories of FGM. A similar aOR was found when comparing women with infibulation with the pooled sample of women without FGM and women with the other forms of FGM. CONCLUSION: The present study suggests a possible association between infibulation and eclampsia. Future studies could investigate this association in other settings. If these findings are confirmed, the possible biological mechanisms and preventive strategies should be investigated.

Underuse of modern methods of contraception: underlying causes and consequent undesired pregnancies in 35 low- and middle-income countries.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the contribution of the underuse of modern methods (MM) of contraception to the annual undesired pregnancies in 35 low- and middle-income countries? SUMMARY ANSWER: Fifteen million out of 16.7 million undesired pregnancies occurring annually in 35 countries could have been prevented with the optimal use of MM of contraception. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Every year, 87 million women worldwide become pregnant unintentionally because of the underuse of MM of contraception. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Demographic and health surveys (DHS) of 35 countries, conducted between 2005 and 2012, were analysed. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Contraceptive use of 12 874 unintentionally pregnant women was compared with 111 301 sexually active women who were neither pregnant nor desiring pregnancy. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: An average of 96% of 15- to 49-year-old eligible women took part in the survey. When adjusted for covariates and compared with the use of MM of contraception, the use of traditional methods was associated with a 2.7 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3-3.4] times increase in odds of an undesired pregnancy, while non-use of any method was associated with a 14.3 (95% CI, 12.3-16.7) times increase. This corresponded to an estimated 16.7 million undesired pregnancies occurring annually in the 35 countries, of which 15.0 million could have been prevented with the optimal use of MM of contraception (13.5 million women did not use MM whilst 1.5 million women utilized MM incorrectly). Women with the lowest educational attainment and wealth quintile were 8.6 (95% CI: 8.2-9.1) and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.4-2.9) times less likely to use contraceptives compared with those with the highest level of each, respectively. Of the 14 893 women who neither desired pregnancy nor used contraception, 5559 (37.3%) cited fear of side effects and health concerns as the reason for non-use, 3331 (22.4%) cited they or their partner's opposition to contraception or religious prohibition and 2620 (17.6%) underestimated the risk of pregnancy. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Despite the fact that DHS are considered high-quality studies, we should not underestimate the role played by recall bias for past pregnancies. Few women report a current pregnancy in the first trimester and undesired pregnancies at that time are probably prone to under-reporting. Some terminated pregnancies may not be included in the current pregnancy group. Furthermore, covariates measured at the time of the survey may not have reflected the same covariates at the time the currently pregnant women became pregnant. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Underuse of MM of contraception burdens especially the poor and the less educated. National strategies should address unfounded health concerns, fear of side effects, opposition and underestimated risk of pregnancy, which are major contributors to undesired pregnancies. FUNDING/CONFLICTS OF INTEREST: No external funding was utilized for this report. There are no conflicts of interest to declare.