Spatially heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology induced by climate change threaten the integrity of the avian migration network.

Phenological responses to climate change frequently vary among trophic levels, which can result in increasing asynchrony between the peak energy requirements of consumers and the availability of resources. Migratory birds use multiple habitats with seasonal food resources along migration flyways. Spatially heterogeneous climate change could cause the phenology of food availability along the migration flyway to become desynchronized. Such heterogeneous shifts in food phenology could pose a challenge to migratory birds by reducing their opportunity for food availability along the migration path and consequently influencing their survival and reproduction. We develop a novel graph-based approach to quantify this problem and deploy it to evaluate the condition of the heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology for 16 migratory herbivorous waterfowl species in Asia. We show that climate change-induced heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology could cause a 12% loss of migration network integrity on average across all study species. Species that winter at relatively lower latitudes are subjected to a higher loss of integrity in their migration network. These findings highlight the susceptibility of migratory species to climate change. Our proposed methodological framework could be applied to migratory species in general to yield an accurate assessment of the exposure under climate change and help to identify actions for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate-related risks.

Functional traits explain waterbirds' host status, subtype richness, and community-level infection risk for avian influenza.

Species functional traits can influence pathogen transmission processes, and consequently affect species' host status, pathogen diversity, and community-level infection risk. We here investigated, for 143 European waterbird species, effects of functional traits on host status and pathogen diversity (subtype richness) for avian influenza virus at species level. We then explored the association between functional diversity and HPAI H5Nx occurrence at the community level for 2016/17 and 2021/22 epidemics in Europe. We found that both host status and subtype richness were shaped by several traits, such as diet guild and dispersal ability, and that the community-weighted means of these traits were also correlated with community-level risk of H5Nx occurrence. Moreover, functional divergence was negatively associated with H5Nx occurrence, indicating that functional diversity can reduce infection risk. Our findings highlight the value of integrating trait-based ecology into the framework of diversity-disease relationship, and provide new insights for HPAI prediction and prevention.

Habitat loss exacerbates pathogen spread: An Agent-based model of avian influenza infection in migratory waterfowl.

Habitat availability determines the distribution of migratory waterfowl along their flyway, which further influences the transmission and spatial spread of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). The extensive habitat loss in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) may have potentially altered the virus spread and transmission, but those consequences are rarely studied. We constructed 6 fall migration networks that differed in their level of habitat loss, wherein an increase in habitat loss resulted in smaller networks with fewer sites and links. We integrated an agent-based model and a susceptible-infected-recovered model to simulate waterfowl migration and AIV transmission. We found that extensive habitat loss in the EAAF can 1) relocate the outbreaks northwards, responding to the distribution changes of wintering waterfowl geese, 2) increase the outbreak risk in remaining sites due to larger goose congregations, and 3) facilitate AIV transmission in the migratory population. In addition, our modeling output was in line with the predictions from the concept of "migratory escape", i.e., the migration allows the geese to "escape" from the location where infection risk is high, affecting the pattern of infection prevalence in the waterfowl population. Our modeling shed light on the potential consequences of habitat loss in spreading and transmitting AIV at the flyway scale and suggested the driving mechanisms behind these effects, indicating the importance of conservation in changing spatial and temporal patterns of AIV outbreaks.

Fundic gland polyps related to diverse aetiologies show subtle morphological differences: a multicentre retrospective study.

AIMS: Fundic gland polyps (FGPs) comprise 66% of all gastric polyps. Although they are usually non-syndromic, they may be associated with various syndromes, including familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) or gastric adenocarcinoma and proximal polyposis of the stomach (GAPPS). We aimed to evaluate how histological features relate to distinct FGP subtypes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 118 FGPs from 109 patients for the architecture of fundic glands, microcyst lining, parietal cell hyperplasia and surface foveolar epithelial changes. Age, gender and history of FAP or GAPPS were collected. Based on combinations of histological features, three distinct patterns (A, B and C) of FGPs were delineated and correlated to the aetiologies. Non-syndromic FGPs were well-formed polyps composed of disordered fundic glands with intermediate-sized microcysts typically lined by a mixture of oxyntic and mucin-secreting cells (73%). Parietal cell hyperplasia (80%) and foveolar surface hyperplasia (78%) were common. FAP-associated cases demonstrated small microcysts that were predominantly lined by fundic epithelium (77%), with limited parietal cell hyperplasia (27%); foveolar hyperplasia was uncommon. GAPPS-related polyps were the largest, with prominent, mucin-secreting epithelium-lined microcysts (73%). Hyperproliferative aberrant pits were universally present, whereas parietal cell hyperplasia was uncommon. Pattern A was identified in most non-syndromic FGPs (74%) and in a minority of FAP-related FGPs (26%). The majority (82%) of FAP-related FGPs showed pattern B, but only 18% of non-syndromic FGPs did. Pattern C consisted exclusively of GAPPS-associated polyps. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that, although FGPs share similar histomorphology, subtle differences exist between polyps of different aetiology. In the appropriate clinical setting, the recognition of these variations may help to consider syndromic aetiologies.

Acute kidney injury in critical COVID-19: a multicenter cohort analysis in seven large hospitals in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) has been reported as a frequent complication of critical COVID-19. We aimed to evaluate the occurrence of AKI and use of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) in critical COVID-19, to assess patient and kidney outcomes and risk factors for AKI and differences in outcome when the diagnosis of AKI is based on urine output (UO) or on serum creatinine (sCr). METHODS: Multicenter, retrospective cohort analysis of patients with critical COVID-19 in seven large hospitals in Belgium. AKI was defined according to KDIGO within 21 days after ICU admission. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to explore the risk factors for developing AKI and to assess the association between AKI and ICU mortality. RESULTS: Of 1286 patients, 85.1% had AKI, and KRT was used in 9.8%. Older age, obesity, a higher APACHE II score and use of mechanical ventilation at day 1 of ICU stay were associated with an increased risk for AKI. After multivariable adjustment, all AKI stages were associated with ICU mortality. AKI was based on sCr in 40.1% and UO in 81.5% of patients. All AKI stages based on sCr and AKI stage 3 based on UO were associated with ICU mortality. Persistent AKI was present in 88.6% and acute kidney disease (AKD) in 87.6%. Rapid reversal of AKI yielded a better prognosis compared to persistent AKI and AKD. Kidney recovery was observed in 47.4% of surviving AKI patients. CONCLUSIONS: Over 80% of critically ill COVID-19 patients had AKI. This was driven by the high occurrence rate of AKI defined by UO criteria. All AKI stages were associated with mortality (NCT04997915).

Needle aspiration of calcific deposits versus shock wave therapy for conservative therapy resistant calcifying tendinitis of the shoulder: protocol of a randomized, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Calcific tendinitis of the shoulder (CT) is a common disorder with a large disease burden. The initial treatment is with conservative measures. However, when this fails the next step treatment remains unclear. Minimal invasive treatment modalities have emerged. Needle aspiration of the calcific deposits (NACD) and extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) have both shown good clinical results. Nonetheless, in the current orthopedic literature there are not any studies available that compare both the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of those two treatment modalities. Therefore, our primary objective is to compare the effectiveness of NACD to ESWT. A secondary objective is to compare the cost-effectiveness of both treatment modalities and workability. METHODS: Following a power calculation using the minimal clinical important difference of our primary outcome (Constant-Murley score, CMS) 140 patients will be included in the study. Enrolment is based upon strict inclusion/ exclusion criteria outlined in the Methods section. Participants will be randomized by computer in two groups (e.g. 70 patients will receive NACD and 70 patients will receive ESWT). The NACD treatment will consist of a sonographically guided removal of the calcific deposits and the ESWT treatment will be a focused ESWT. Both treatments will be conducted according to a standardized protocol, as part of care as usual in our hospital. The primary outcome will be the between group differences in functional outcome (measured with the CMS) between baseline and after 12 months follow-up. Secondary outcomes will be questionnaires regarding the clinical outcome (SST) and quality of life (EQ-5D-5L). Furthermore, NRS pain and cost related questionnaires (iPCQ and ProDisQ) will be collected during follow-up after two months, six months and at final follow-up after 12 months. DISCUSSION: This study will provide more insight regarding treatment for conservative therapy resistant calcific tendinitis of the shoulder by comparing NACD to focused ESWT, which will aid the physician and patient in determining the appropriate treatment plan. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch trial register: NTR7093 registered on 11 March 2018.

Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk.

As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high-risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disease-diversity relationships have mainly been studied in the context of species loss, but assemblage composition and disease risk (e.g. infection prevalence in wildlife assemblages) can change without extinction. Based on the predicted distributions and abundances of 4466 mammal species, we estimated global patterns of disease risk through the calculation of the community-level basic reproductive ratio R0, an index of invasion potential, persistence, and maximum prevalence of a pathogen in a wildlife assemblage. For density-dependent diseases, we found that, in addition to tropical areas which are commonly viewed as infectious disease hotspots, northern temperate latitudes included high-risk areas. We also forecasted the effects of climate change and habitat loss from 2015 to 2035. Over this period, many local assemblages showed no net loss of species richness, but the assemblage composition (i.e. the mix of species and their abundances) changed considerably. Simultaneously, most areas experienced a decreased risk of density-dependent diseases but an increased risk of frequency-dependent diseases. We further explored the factors driving these changes in disease risk. Our results suggest that biodiversity and changes therein jointly influence disease risk. Understanding these changes and their drivers and ultimately identifying emerging infectious disease hotspots can help health officials prioritize resource distribution.

The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on socioeconomic differences in physical activity behavior: Evidence from the Lifelines COVID-19 cohort study.

Covid-19 and measures to contain spreading the disease have led to changed physical activity behavior. This study aims to investigate the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and changes in the amount of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) during the Covid-19 crisis. Using the Dutch Lifelines Covid-19 cohort study (n = 17,749), the amount of MVPA was measured at 15 time-points between March and December 2020, and compared with the amount before the Covid19 pandemic. For SES, the population was stratified in three education and income levels. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and confidence interval (CI) of altered MVPA for low and high SES groups, with the middle SES category as the reference group. A clear socioeconomic gradient in changes in MVPA behavior was observed. Low educated individuals had significantly higher odds (OR = 1.14; CI: 1.03-1.27) of decreasing MVPA, while the high educated had significantly lower odds of decreased MVPA (OR = 0.84, CI: 0.79-0.90). Both low education (OR = 0.87; CI: 0.77-0.98) and low income (OR = 0.85; CI 0.78-0.92) had significantly lower odds to increase MVPA, while high education (OR = 1.21, CI: 1.12-1.30) and high income (OR = 1.17; CI: 1.07-1.28) had significantly higher odds to increase MVPA. Most findings were consistent over the full research period. Socioeconomic inequalities in MVPA have increased during the Covid-19 pandemic, even when Covid-19 containment measures were relaxed. Our findings suggest that future public health policies need to increase efforts to improve physical activity behavior with an even larger focus on low SES groups.

How is sport participation related to mortality, diabetes and prediabetes for different body mass index levels?

This study examined the association of sport participation with health outcomes and whether this relation differs between body mass index (BMI)-level subpopulations. Research outcomes for sport participation were compared with other types of leisure-time physical activity (PA). We used the Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess the associations of sport participation, and four other PA types (cycling, gardening, doing odd jobs, and walking), with the risk of prediabetes, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and all-cause mortality in 97,212 individuals (58.4% women; mean age: 46.5 years) in the Dutch LifeLines cohort. Outcomes were stratified by three BMI levels: healthy weight (BMI: 18.5-24.9 kg/m2 ), overweight (BMI: 25.0-29.9 kg/m2 ), and obesity (BMI: 30.0 kg/m2 or above). Sport participation was associated with lower health risks, but only significantly so for prediabetes (HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.81-0.92). For healthy weight persons, sport participation was associated with the largest risk reductions, with significantly lower risks of prediabetes (HR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.68-0.90) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.65-0.96). Other PA types were not associated with significantly lower health risks, with the exception of cycling, for which significantly lower health risks for persons with overweight were found. Our findings show that sport participation is associated with lower health risks, especially prediabetes, but the effect varies between BMI levels, with the strongest link for persons with a healthy weight. Sport participation, together with cycling, is likely to be more effective in reducing health risks than other types of PA.

Citrate dose for continuous hemofiltration: effect on calcium and magnesium balance, parathormone and vitamin D status, a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Regional citrate anticoagulation may cause a negative calcium balance, systemic hypocalcemia and parathormone (PTH) activation but randomzed studies are not available. Aim was to determine the effect of citrate dose on calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) balance, PTH and Vitamin D. METHODS: Single center prospective randomized study. Patients, requiring continuous venovenous hemofiltration (CVVH) with citrate, randomized to low dose citrate (2.5 mmol/L) vs. high dose (4.5 mmol/L) for 24 h, targeting post-filter ionized calcium (pfiCa) of 0.325-0.4 mmol/L vs. 0.2-0.275 mmol/L, using the Prismaflex® algorithm with 100% postfilter calcium replacement. Extra physician-ordered Ca and Mg supplementation was performed aiming at systemic iCa > 1.0 mmol/L. Arterial blood, effluent and post-filter aliquots were taken for balance calculations (area under the curve), intact (i), oxidized (ox) and non-oxidized (nox) PTH, 25-hydroxy-Vitamin D (25D) and 1,25-dihydroxy-Vitamin D (1,25D). RESULTS: 35 patients were analyzed, 17 to high, 18 to low citrate. Mean 24-h Ca balance was - 9.72 mmol/d (standard error 1.70) in the high vs - 1.18 mmol/d (se 1.70)) (p = 0.002) in the low citrate group and 24-h Mg-balance was - 25.99 (se 2.10) mmol/d vs. -17.63 (se 2.10) mmol/d (p = 0.008) respectively. Physician-ordered Ca supplementation, higher in the high citrate group, resulted in a positive Ca-balance in both groups. iPTH, oxPTH or noxPTH were not different between groups. Over 24 h, median PTH decreased from 222 (25th-75th percentile 140-384) to 162 (111-265) pg/ml (p = 0.002); oxPTH from 192 (124-353) to 154 pg/ml (87-231), p = 0.002. NoxPTH did not change significantly. Mean 25 D (standard deviation), decreased from 36.5 (11.8) to 33.3 (11.2) nmol/l (p = 0.003), 1,25D rose from 40.9 pg/ml (30.7) to 43.2 (30.7) pg/ml (p = 0.046), without differences between groups. CONCLUSIONS: A higher citrate dose caused a more negative CVVH Ca balance than a lower dose, due to a higher effluent Calcium loss. Physician-ordered Ca supplementation, targeting a systemic iCa > 1.0 mmol/L, higher in the high citrate group, resulted in a positive Ca-balance in both groups. iPTH and oxPTH declined, suggesting decreased oxidative stress, while noxPTH did not change. 25D decreased while 1,25-D rose. Mg balance was negative in both groups, more so in the high citrate group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT02194569. Registered 18 July 2014.

Increase in regional cerebral saturation after elective electrical cardioversion of atrial fibrillation is only transient and without beneficial effects on neuropsychological functioning: cerebral saturation during electrical cardioversion.

We aimed to confirm the positive association between a successful electrical cardioversion (ECV) and increase in SctO2 and investigated whether this increase is persisting or not. Secondary, the influence of a successful ECV on the neuropsychological function and the association with SctO2 was assessed as well. SctO2 was measured continuously during elective ECV using near-infrared spectroscopy. Measurements started before induction of sedation and ended 15 min after awakening. A second measurement took place 4 to 6 weeks after ECV. To assess neuropsychological functioning, patients performed standardized neuropsychological tests before ECV and at follow-up and were compared to healthy volunteers as control group. SctO2 was measured in 60 patients during elective ECV. ECV was successful in 50 AF patients, while in ten patients sinus rhythm was not obtained. SctO2 increased immediately after successful ECV in 50 patients (1% (- 5 to 4); p = 0.031), but not after unsuccessful ECV in 10 patients (- 1% (- 5;3); p = 0.481). This SctO2 change was positively correlated with the instant change in blood pressure (R2 = 0.391; p = 0.004). At follow-up, SctO2 values were no longer increased. Nevertheless, successful ECV improved the patient's quality of life but did not influence neuropsychological functioning at follow-up. A transient, instant SctO2 increase was observed after successful ECV. This temporary increase in SctO2 did not influence the neuropsychological functioning of the patients. Though, the quality of life of patients with a successful ECV improved.

Effects of migration network configuration and migration synchrony on infection prevalence in geese.

Migration can influence dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. However, it is not clearly known how migration pattern, in terms of the configuration of the migration network and the synchrony of migration, affects infection prevalence. We therefore applied a discrete-time SIR model, integrating environmental transmission and migration, to various migration networks, including networks with serial, parallel, or both serial and parallel stopover sites, and with various levels of migration synchrony. We applied the model to the infection of avian influenza virus in a migratory geese population. In a network with only serial stopover sites, increasing the number of stopover sites reduced infection prevalence, because with every new stopover site, the amount of virus in the environment was lower than that in the previous stopover site, thereby reducing the exposure of the migratory population. In a network with parallel stopover sites, both increasing the number and earlier appearance of the stopover sites led to an earlier peak of infection prevalence in the migratory population, because the migratory population is exposed to larger total amount of virus in the environment, speeding-up the infection accumulation. Furthermore, higher migration synchrony reduced the average number of cumulative infection, because the majority of the population can fly to a new stopover site where the amount of virus is still relatively low and has not been increased due to virus shedding of infected birds. Our simulations indicate that a migration pattern with multiple serial stopover sites and with highly synchronized migration reduces the infection prevalence.

How are lifestyle factors associated with socioeconomic differences in health care costs? Evidence from full population data in the Netherlands.

INTRODUCTION: There is a strong socioeconomic gradient in health care costs. However, little is known about the role of lifestyle factors in the association between health care costs and socioeconomic status (SES). This study investigates variation in the association between lifestyle indicators and health care costs between and within neighborhoods with similar SES. METHOD: Using 2016 whole-population data for all 790 neighborhoods of the Netherlands, we estimated the association between neighborhood average health care cost performance (i.e., health care costs adjusted for population age and gender) and neighborhood socioeconomic status (NSES) and four lifestyle indicators - smoking, alcohol consumption, exercise and sport club membership. Additionally, using regression analysis, we explored the multivariate relationship between average health care cost performance, NSES and lifestyle indicators. RESULTS: Neighborhoods with proportionally fewer smokers and more sport club members had significantly lower average health care costs. Remarkably, neighborhoods with more people who complied with the recommended maximum alcohol consumption had significantly higher health care costs. These findings were consistent within and between neighborhoods with different SES levels. Neighborhoods with more compliance with exercise guidelines had lower health care costs. However, this relationship was inconsistent across different NSES levels, with the largest cost reductions found in the most deprived neighborhoods. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that prevention policies aimed at reducing the number of smokers and increasing sport club membership may reduce health care costs across all NSES groups, while increasing compliance with physical exercise norms may be effective mainly in low SES neighborhoods.

A network approach to prioritize conservation efforts for migratory birds.

Habitat loss can trigger migration network collapse by isolating migratory bird breeding grounds from nonbreeding grounds. Theoretically, habitat loss can have vastly different impacts depending on the site's importance within the migratory corridor. However, migration-network connectivity and the impacts of site loss are not completely understood. We used GPS tracking data on 4 bird species in the Asian flyways to construct migration networks and proposed a framework for assessing network connectivity for migratory species. We used a node-removal process to identify stopover sites with the highest impact on connectivity. In general, migration networks with fewer stopover sites were more vulnerable to habitat loss. Node removal in order from the highest to lowest degree of habitat loss yielded an increase of network resistance similar to random removal. In contrast, resistance increased more rapidly when removing nodes in order from the highest to lowest betweenness value (quantified by the number of shortest paths passing through the specific node). We quantified the risk of migration network collapse and identified crucial sites by first selecting sites with large contributions to network connectivity and then identifying which of those sites were likely to be removed from the network (i.e., sites with habitat loss). Among these crucial sites, 42% were not designated as protected areas. Setting priorities for site protection should account for a site's position in the migration network, rather than only site-specific characteristics. Our framework for assessing migration-network connectivity enables site prioritization for conservation of migratory species.

Un Enfoque de Redes para Priorizar los Esfuerzos de Conservación para las Aves Migratorias Resumen La pérdida del hábitat puede disparar el colapso de las redes de migración al aislar los sitios de reproducción de las aves migratorias de aquellos sitios que no se usan para la reproducción. En teoría, la pérdida del hábitat puede tener impactos muy diferentes dependiendo de la importancia del sitio dentro del corredor migratorio. Sin embargo, la conectividad entre las redes de migración y los impactos de la pérdida de los sitios no están del todo comprendidos. Usamos los datos de seguimiento por GPS de cuatro especies de aves en las rutas de vuelo de Asia para construir redes de migración y propusimos un marco de trabajo para evaluar la conectividad de las redes en las especies migratorias. Usamos un proceso de extracción de nodos para identificar los sitios de escala con el mayor impacto sobre la conectividad. En general, las redes de migración con menos sitios de escala fueron más vulnerables a la pérdida del hábitat. La extracción de nodos en orden del grado más alto al más bajo resultó en un incremento de resistencia de la red similar a la extracción al azar. Al contrario, la resistencia incrementó más rápidamente cuando la extracción de los nodos fue en orden del más alto al más bajo valor de intermediación (cuantificado por el número de caminos más cortos que pasan por un nodo específico). Cuantificamos el riesgo de colapso de la red de migración e identificamos sitios cruciales al seleccionar primero los sitios con mayores contribuciones a la conectividad de la red y después identificar cuáles de esos sitios tenían probabilidad de ser removidos de la red (es decir, sitios con pérdida de hábitat). Entre estos sitios cruciales, el 42% no estaban designados como áreas protegidas. El establecimiento de prioridades para la protección de un sitio debería considerar la posición del sitio dentro de la red de migración, en lugar de sólo considerar las características específicas del sitio. Nuestro marco de trabajo para la evaluación de la conectividad de la red de migración permite la priorización de sitios para la conservación de las especies migratorias.

Association between postoperative delirium and postoperative cerebral oxygen desaturation in older patients after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Near-infrared spectroscopy non-invasively measures regional cerebral oxygen saturation. Intraoperative cerebral desaturations have been associated with worse neurological outcomes. We investigated whether perioperative cerebral desaturations are associated with postoperative delirium in older patients after cardiac surgery. METHODS: Patients aged 70 yr and older scheduled for on-pump cardiac surgery were included between 2015 and 2017 in a single-centre, prospective, observational study. Baseline cerebral oxygen saturation was measured 1 day before surgery. Throughout surgery and after ICU admission, cerebral oxygen saturation was monitored continuously up to 72 h after operation. The presence of delirium was assessed using the confusion assessment method for the ICU. Association with delirium was evaluated with unadjusted analyses and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Ninety-six of 103 patients were included, and 29 (30%) became delirious. Intraoperative cerebral oxygen saturation was not significantly associated with postoperative delirium. The lowest postoperative cerebral oxygen saturation was lower in patients who became delirious (P=0.001). The absolute and relative postoperative cerebral oxygen saturation decreases were more marked in patients with delirium (13 [6]% and 19 [9]%, respectively) compared with patients without delirium (9 [4]% and 14 [5]%; P=0.002 and P=0.001, respectively). These differences in cerebral oxygen saturation were no longer present after excluding cerebral oxygen saturation values after patients became delirious. Older age, previous stroke, higher EuroSCORE II, lower preoperative Mini-Mental Status Examination, and more substantial absolute postoperative cerebral oxygen saturation decreases were independently associated with postoperative delirium incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative delirium in older patients undergoing cardiac surgery is associated with absolute decreases in postoperative cerebral oxygen saturation. These differences appear most detectable after the onset of delirium. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02532530.

Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status and Health Care Costs: A Population-Wide Study in the Netherlands.

Objectives. To identify disparities in several types of insured health care costs in the Netherlands across neighborhoods with different socioeconomic statuses and to assess the room for improvement. Methods. We used 2015 Dutch whole-population registry data to estimate the age- and gender-specific cost structure by neighborhood for total, specialist, pharmaceutical, and mental health care. Classifying neighborhoods by the quintile of their neighborhood socioeconomic status (NSES), we determined differences in observed and expected health care costs for several scenarios of NSES improvement. Results. From low to high NSES, we found a clear downward gradient in health care costs. Total health care costs would drop by 7.3% if each neighborhood's cost structure was equal to that of the most affluent neighborhoods. The potential for cost reduction appeared highest for females, for age groups between 40 and 60 years, and for pharmaceutical care. Conclusions. Low NSES is associated with relatively high health care costs, and represents considerable potential for cost savings in health care. Public Health Implications. Our research suggests that policies aimed at improving the socioeconomic determinants of health locally may be pivotal in containing health care costs.

Loss of functional connectivity in migration networks induces population decline in migratory birds.

Migratory birds rely on a habitat network along their migration routes by temporarily occupying stopover sites between breeding and non-breeding grounds. Removal or degradation of stopover sites in a network might impede movement and thereby reduce migration success and survival. The extent to which the breakdown of migration networks, due to changes in land use, impacts the population sizes of migratory birds is poorly understood. We measured the functional connectivity of migration networks of waterfowl species that migrate over the East Asian-Australasian Flyway from 1992 to 2015. We analysed the relationship between changes in non-breeding population sizes and changes in functional connectivity, while taking into account other commonly considered species traits, using a phylogenetic linear mixed model. We found that population sizes significantly declined with a reduction in the functional connectivity of migration networks; no other variables were important. We conclude that the current decrease in functional connectivity, due to habitat loss and degradation in migration networks, can negatively and crucially impact population sizes of migratory birds. Our findings provide new insights into the underlying mechanisms that affect population trends of migratory birds under environmental changes. Establishment of international agreements leading to the creation of systematic conservation networks associated with migratory species' distributions and stopover sites may safeguard migratory bird populations.

Contrasting effects of host species and phylogenetic diversity on the occurrence of HPAI H5N1 in European wild birds.

Studies on the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 suggest that wild bird migration may facilitate its long-distance spread, yet the role of wild bird community composition in its transmission risk remains poorly understood. Furthermore, most studies on the diversity-disease relationship focused on host species diversity without considering hosts' phylogenetic relationships, which may lead to rejecting a species diversity effect when the community has host species that are only distantly related. Here, we explored the influence of waterbird community composition for determining HPAI H5N1 occurrence in wild birds in a continental-scale study across Europe. In particular, we tested the diversity-disease relationship using both host species diversity and host phylogenetic diversity. Our results provide the first demonstration that host community composition-compared with previously identified environmental risk factors-can also effectively explain the spatial pattern of H5N1 occurrence in wild birds. We further show that communities with more higher risk host species and more closely related species have a higher risk of H5N1 outbreaks. Thus, both host species diversity and community phylogenetic structure, in addition to environmental factors, jointly influence H5N1 occurrence. Our work not only extends the current theory on the diversity-disease relationship, but also has important implications for future monitoring of H5N1 and other HPAI subtypes.

The Prognostic Value of Simplified EEG in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Patients.

BACKGROUND: We previously validated simplified electroencephalogram (EEG) tracings obtained by a bispectral index (BIS) device against standard EEG. This retrospective study now investigated whether BIS EEG tracings can predict neurological outcome after cardiac arrest (CA). METHODS: Bilateral BIS monitoring (BIS VISTA™, Aspect Medical Systems, Inc. Norwood, USA) was started following intensive care unit admission. Six, 12, 18, 24, 36 and 48 h after targeted temperature management (TTM) at 33 °C was started, BIS EEG tracings were extracted and reviewed by two neurophysiologists for the presence of slow diffuse rhythm, burst suppression, cerebral inactivity and epileptic activity (defined as continuous, monomorphic, > 2 Hz generalized sharp activity or continuous, monomorphic, < 2 Hz generalized blunt activity). At 180 days post-CA, neurological outcome was determined using cerebral performance category (CPC) classification (CPC1-2: good and CPC3-5: poor neurological outcome). RESULTS: Sixty-three out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients were enrolled for data analysis of whom 32 had a good and 31 a poor neurological outcome. Epileptic activity within 6-12 h predicted CPC3-5 with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 100%. Epileptic activity within time frames 18-24 and 36-48 h showed a PPV for CPC3-5 of 90 and 93%, respectively. Cerebral inactivity within 6-12 h predicted CPC3-5 with a PPV of 57%. In contrast, cerebral inactivity between 36 and 48 h predicted CPC3-5 with a PPV of 100%. The pattern with the worst predictive power at any time point was burst suppression with PPV of 44, 57 and 40% at 6-12 h, at 18-24 h and at 36-48 h, respectively. Slow diffuse rhythms at 6-12 h, at 18-24 h and at 36-48 h predicted CPC1-2 with PPV of 74, 76 and 80%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Based on simplified BIS EEG, the presence of epileptic activity at any time and cerebral inactivity after the end of TTM may assist poor outcome prognostication in successfully resuscitated CA patients. A slow diffuse rhythm at any time after CA was indicative for a good neurological outcome.

Predicting hydrological impacts of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project on habitat availability for wintering waterbirds at Caizi Lake.

Quantifying the relationship between hydrological regime and habitat availability is the first step to predict potential impacts of water engineering projects on waterbirds, particularly in periodically flooded wetlands. The proposed Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project (YHWD) cuts through Caizi Lake, which is of international importance for wintering waterbirds. In order to explore the potential impacts of the project on habitat availability for the wintering waterbirds, we first built linear models to fit relationships between land cover patterns and water level dynamics in the lake, and then used generalized linear mixed models to test effects of habitat variables (water area, grassland area and mudflat area) on bird abundances of different functional groups. The avian habitat use differed among guilds, and was correlated with the land cover pattern, which was strongly dependent on seasonal water level fluctuations. Following water recession in autumn, the exposure of riparian habitats was more prominent in the eastern part of the lake, where the channel of the proposed YHWD project is located. This part of the lake is also where we located most of the important bird areas. Compared to the current situation, 54.3% of the grassland and 60.5% of the mudflats are predicted to be lost during winter due to the projected water level rise, resulting in reduced habitat availability for grass foragers, invertebrate eaters and tuber feeders. In order to mitigate potential impacts of the YHWD project, we suggest habitat compensations by construction of artificial habitats, and maintenance of water level regime at the whole lake by restoring similarity in water level fluctuations between Xizi Lake and Caizi Lake.