Changes in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk over time among people living with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: To describe changes in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk over time among people living with HIV (PLHIV). METHODS: We used data from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) and the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD). Five-year ASCVD risk was calculated using the D:A:D equation. Individuals were eligible for inclusion if they were aged ≥18 years, had started ART, had no previous history of ASCVD and had complete ASCVD risk factor data available within the first 5 years of ART initiation. RESULTS: A total of 3368 adults contributed data, 3221 were from TAHOD and 147 were from AHOD. The median age at ART initiation was 36 [IQR 31-43] years for TAHOD participants, and 42 [IQR 35-50] years for AHOD participants. Most TAHOD (70.4%) and AHOD (91.8%) participants were male. Overall, ASCVD risk increased from 0.84% (95% CI 0.81%-0.87%) at ART initiation to 1.34% (95% CI 1.29%-1.39%) after 5 years on ART. After adjusting for traditional and HIV-associated ASCVD risk factors, ASCVD risk increased at a similar rate among sub-populations defined by HIV exposure (heterosexuals, men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs), race/ethnicity (Caucasian and Asian) and nadir CD4 at ART initiation (<200 and ≥200 cells/mm3). CONCLUSIONS: These findings emphasize the growing burden of ASCVD risk among PLHIV and the need to develop interventions that are effective across a broad range of HIV sub-populations.

Projected impact of population aging on non-communicable disease burden and costs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2020-2030.

BACKGROUND: The number of people aged greater than 65 years per 100 people aged 20-64 years is expected to almost double in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) between 2020 and 2030. We therefore aimed to quantify the growing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in KSA between 2020 and 2030, and the impact this will have on the national health budget. METHODS: Ten priority NCDs were selected: ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, dementia, depression, osteoarthritis, colorectal cancer, and breast cancer. Age- and sex-specific prevalence was projected for each priority NCD between 2020 and 2030. Treatment coverage rates were applied to the projected prevalence estimates to calculate the number of patients incurring treatment costs for each condition. For each priority NCD, the average cost-of-illness was estimated based on published literature. The impact of changes to our base-case model in terms of assumed disease prevalence, treatment coverage, and costs of care, coming into effect from 2023 onwards, were explored. RESULTS: The prevalence estimates for colorectal cancer and stroke were estimated to almost double between 2020 and 2030 (97% and 88% increase, respectively). The only priority NCD prevalence projected to increase by less than 60% between 2020 and 2030 was for depression (22% increase). It is estimated that the total cost of managing priority NCDs in KSA will increase from USD 19.8 billion in 2020 to USD 32.4 billion in 2030 (an increase of USD 12.6 billion or 63%). The largest USD value increases were projected for osteoarthritis (USD 4.3 billion), diabetes (USD 2.4 billion), and dementia (USD 1.9 billion). In scenario analyses, our 2030 projection for the total cost of managing priority NCDs varied between USD 29.2 billion - USD 35.7 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Managing the growing NCD burden in KSA's aging population will require substantial healthcare spending increases over the coming years.

Weight change with integrase strand transfer inhibitors among virally suppressed Thai people living with HIV.

BACKGROUND: We compared weight changes in virally suppressed people living with HIV (PLWH) switching to integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) with those remaining on an INSTI or non-INSTI regimen. METHODS: PLWH aged ≥18 years with weight measurements available at baseline between 2001 and 2020 were included. Viral suppression was defined as having had a viral load <400 copies/mL for 6 months. Baseline was defined as the time of switching from a non-INSTI to an INSTI regimen whilst virally suppressed (switch group) or the time that viral suppression was achieved (remain groups). Generalized estimating equations adjusted for age, sex and baseline weight were used to model weight changes 6, 12, 18 and 24 months after baseline. RESULTS: A total of 1673 PLWH contributed 1952 episodes of viral suppression-143 (7.3%) episodes were among PLWH who had switched from a non-INSTI to an INSTI, 102 (5.2%) episodes were among PLWH who remained on an INSTI and 1707 (87.4%) episodes were among PLWH who remained on a non-INSTI. PLWH in the switch group had significantly greater weight gain than those in the remain groups at 6, 12 and 18 months after achieving viral suppression. By 24 months, weight change on all regimens started to converge. Tenofovir alafenamide use was not significantly associated with weight gain in adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the mechanisms of weight gain due to INSTI use go beyond their superior efficacy over other antiretrovirals in controlling HIV or the effect of the 'return-to-health' phenomenon. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms of such weight gain.

Physical function limitation among gay and bisexual men aged ≥55years with and without HIV: findings from the Australian Positive and Peers Longevity Evaluation Study (APPLES).

BACKGROUND: As people living with HIV now have a life expectancy approaching that of the general population, clinical care focuses increasingly on the management and prevention of comorbidities and conditions associated with aging. We aimed to assess the prevalence of physical function (PF) limitation among gay and bisexual men (GBM) and determine whether HIV is associated with severe PF limitation in this population. METHODS: We analysed cross-sectional data from GBM aged ≥55years in the Australian Positive and Peers Longevity Evaluation Study who completed a self-administered survey on health and lifestyle factors. PF was measured using the Medical Outcomes Study-Physical Functioning scale. Factors associated with severe PF limitation were assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: The survey was completed by 381 men: 186 without HIV and 195 with HIV. Median age was 64.3years for GBM without HIV and 62.1years for GBM with HIV. Compared with men without HIV, those with HIV had higher proportions of severe (13.3% vs 8.1%) and moderate-to-severe (26.7% vs 24.2%) PF limitation. Severe PF limitation commonly involved difficulty with vigorous activity (95% with severe PF limitation described being limited a lot), climbing several flights of stairs (68.4% limited a lot), bending, kneeling or stooping (60.5% limited a lot), and walking 1km (55.0% limited a lot). In a model adjusted for age, body mass index, typical duration of physical activity, psychological distress, and number of comorbidities, we found a significant association between HIV and severe PF limitation (adjusted odds ratio 3.3 vs not having HIV, 95% confidence interval 1.3-8.7). CONCLUSIONS: The biological mechanisms underlying this association require further investigation, particularly given the growing age of the HIV population and inevitable increase in the burden of PF limitation.

Effects of a minimum floor Price law on cigarette use in Oakland, California: A static microsimulation model.

Tobacco minimum floor price laws (MFPLs) are a non-tax price policy that set a price below which tobacco products cannot be sold, thereby raising prices. Despite their growing interest among policy makers, little is known about the effects of local MFPLs on smoking prevalence or smoking intensity. We aimed to project the impact of a local tobacco MFPL on cigarette smoking prevalence and cigarette smoking intensity in Oakland, California, including detailed analysis of several important subpopulations. We used data collected between April 2017 and December 2019 from the California Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and the National Youth Tobacco Survey to construct a static microsimulation model representative of Oakland. We projected the impact of MFPLs ranging from $8.00 to $13.00 per pack. All analyses were conducted between 2019 and 2020. With the introduction of an MFPL and assuming 15% policy evasion, mean price paid per pack was projected to increase by $1.05 to $4.69, cigarette smoking prevalence was projected to drop by 0.3% to 0.8%, and smoking intensity was projected to drop by 0.7% to 2.0% among continuing smokers. Total number of cigarettes smoked per month was projected to drop by 246,000 to 734,000 cigarettes, a 3.0% to 9.0% reduction from the current level (8.2 million cigarettes). The greatest reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence were among those aged 12 to 24-years-old, of non-Hispanic black or other race/ethnicity, and living below the federal poverty level. An MFPL in Oakland may substantially reduce cigarette use and target several important subpopulations.

Household factors and under-five mortality in Bankass, Mali: results from a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Rural parts of Mali carry a disproportionate burden of the country's high under-five mortality rate. A range of household factors are associated with poor under-five health in resource-limited settings. However, it is unknown which most influence the under-five mortality rate in rural Mali. We aimed to describe household factors associated with under-five mortality in Bankass, a remote region in central Mali. METHODS: We analysed baseline household survey data from a trial being conducted in Bankass. The survey was administered to households between December 2016 and January 2017. Under-five deaths in the five years prior to baseline were documented along with detailed information on household factors and women's birth histories. Factors associated with under-five mortality were analysed using Cox regression. RESULTS: Our study population comprised of 17,408 under-five children from 8322 households. In the five years prior to baseline, the under-five mortality rate was 152.6 per 1000 live births (158.8 and 146.0 per 1000 live births for males and females, respectively). Living a greater distance from a primary health center was associated with a higher probability of under-five mortality for both males (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.53 for ≥10 km versus < 2 km, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-1.88) and females (aHR 1.59 for ≥10 km versus < 2 km, 95% CI 1.27-1.99). Under-five male mortality was additionally associated with lower household wealth quintile (aHR 1.47 for poorest versus wealthiest, 95%CI 1.21-1.78), lower reading ability among women of reproductive age in the household (aHR 1.73 for cannot read versus can read, 95%CI 1.04-2.86), and living in a household with access to electricity (aHR 1.16 for access versus no access, 95%CI 1.00-1.34). CONCLUSIONS: U5 mortality is very high in Bankass and is associated with living a greater distance from healthcare and several other household factors that may be amenable to intervention or facilitate program targeting.

Can Australia Reach the World Health Organization Hepatitis C Elimination Goal by 2025 Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-positive Gay and Bisexual Men?

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive gay and bisexual men (GBM) in Australia are well engaged in care. The World Health Organization's (WHO) hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination target of an 80% reduction in incidence by 2030 may be reachable ahead of time in this population. METHODS: We predicted the effect of treatment and behavioral changes on HCV incidence among HIV-positive GBM up to 2025 using a HCV transmission model parameterized with Australian data. We assessed the impact of changes in behavior that facilitate HCV transmission in the context of different rates of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) use. RESULTS: HCV incidence in our model increased from 0.7 per 100 person-years in 2000 to 2.5 per 100 person-years in 2016 and had the same trajectory as previously reported clinical data. If the proportion of eligible (HCV RNA positive) patients using DAAs stays at 65% per year between 2016 and 2025, with high-risk sexual behavior and injecting drug use remaining at current levels, HCV incidence would drop to 0.4 per 100 person-years (85% decline from 2016). In the same treatment scenario but with substantial increases in risk behavior, HCV incidence would drop to 0.6 per 100 person-years (76% decline). If the proportion of eligible patients using DAAs dropped from 65% per year in 2016 to 20% per year in 2025 and risk behavior did not change, HCV incidence would drop to 0.7 per 100 person-years (70% reduction). CONCLUSIONS: Reaching the WHO HCV elimination target by 2025 among HIV-positive GBM in Australia is achievable.

Cardiovascular disease among people living with HIV in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: There is a paucity of data on cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in resource-limited countries. We assessed factors associated with CVD and the impact of prevalent CVD on all-cause mortality in PLHIV on antiretroviral therapy in Brazil. METHODS: Competing risk regression to assess factors associated with CVD and all-cause mortality in the HIV-Brazil Cohort Study between 2003 and 2014. RESULTS: Among 5614 patients, the rate of CVD was 3.5 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 2.9-4.3) per 1000 person-years. CVD was associated with older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 6.4 for ≥55 years vs. <35 years, 95% CI: 2.5-16.3, P < 0.01), black race (aHR 1.8 vs. white race, 95% CI: 1.0-3.1, P = 0.04), past CVD (aHR 3.0 vs. no past CVD, 95% CI: 1.4-6.2, P < 0.01), hypertension (aHR 1.8 vs. no hypertension, 95% CI: 1.0-3.1, P = 0.04), high-grade dyslipidemia (aHR 9.3 vs. no high-grade dyslipidemia, 95% CI: 6.0-14.6, P < 0.01), ever smoking (aHR 2.4 vs. never, 95% CI: 1.2-5.0, P = 0.02) and low nadir CD4 cell count (aHR 1.8 for 100-250 cells/mm3 vs. >250 cells/mm3 , 95% CI: 1.0-3.2, P = 0.05). The rate of death was 16.6 (95% CI: 15.1-18.3) per 1000 person-years. Death was strongly associated with having had a past CVD event (aHR 1.7 vs. no past CVD event, 95% CI: 1.1-2.7, P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Traditional and HIV-specific factors associated with CVD among PLHIV in Brazil are similar to those identified among PLHIV in high-income countries. PLHIV in Brazil with a history of CVD have a high risk of death. CVD care and treatment remain priorities for PLHIV in Brazil as this population ages and antiretroviral therapy use expands.

OBJECTIFS: Il existe peu de données sur les maladies cardiovasculaires (MCV) chez les personnes vivant avec le VIH (PVVIH) dans les pays à ressources limitées. Nous avons évalué les facteurs associés aux MCV et l'impact des MCV prévalentes sur la mortalité toutes causes confondues des PVVIH sous le traitement antirétroviral au Brésil. MÉTHODES: Régression des risques concurrente pour évaluer les facteurs associés aux MCV et à la mortalité toutes causes confondues dans l'étude de cohorte VIH-Brésil entre 2003 et 2014. RÉSULTATS: Parmi 5.614 patients, le taux de MCV était de 3,5 (intervalle de confiance à 95% [IC95%] 2,9-4,3) pour 1.000 personnes-années. Les MCV étaient associées à un âge plus avancé (rapport de risque ajusté [aHR] 6,4 chez les ≥55 ans versus chez les <35 ans, IC95%: 2,5-16,3 ; p <0,01), race noire (aHR: 1,8 versus race blanche, IC95%: 1,0-3,1 ; p = 0,04), MCV passée (aHR: 3,0 versus pas de MCV passée, IC95%: 1,4-6,2 ; p <0,01), hypertension (aHR: 1,8 versus pas d'hypertension, IC95%: 1,0-3,1 ; p = 0,04), dyslipidémie de grade élevé (aHR 9,3 versus absence de dyslipidémie de grade élevé, IC95%: 6,0-14,6 ; p <0,01), tabagisme (aHR 2,4 versus n'avoir jamais fumé, IC95%: 1,2-5,0 ; p = 0,02) et faible nombre de CD4 au nadir (aHR: 1,8 pour 100-250 cellules/mm3 versus >250 cellules/mm3 , IC95%: 1,0-3,2 ; p = 0,05). Le taux de décès était de 16,6 (IC95%: 15,1-18,3) pour 1.000 personnes-années. Le décès était fortement associé à un événement MCV antérieur (aHR: 1,7 versus aucun événement MCV antérieur, IC95%: 1,1-2,7 ; p = 0,01). CONCLUSIONS: Les facteurs traditionnels et spécifiques au VIH associés aux MCV chez les PVVIH au Brésil sont similaires à ceux identifiés chez les PVVIH dans les pays à revenu élevé. Les PVVIH au Brésil ayant des antécédents de MCV ont un risque élevé de décès. Les soins et le traitement des MCV restent des priorités pour les PVVIH au Brésil à mesure que cette population vieillit et que l'utilisation des thérapies antirétrovirales augmente.

Cigarette Pack Prices and Sales Following Policy Changes in California, 2011-2018.

Objectives. To estimate the combined effect of California's Tobacco 21 law (enacted June 2016) and $2-per-pack cigarette excise tax increase (enacted April 2017) on cigarette prices and sales, compared with matched comparator states.Methods. We used synthetic control methods to compare cigarette prices and sales after the policies were enacted, relative to what we would have expected without the policy reforms. To estimate the counterfactual, we matched pre-reform covariate and outcome trends between California and control states to construct a "synthetic" California.Results. Compared with the synthetic control in 2018, cigarette prices in California were $1.89 higher ($7.86 vs $5.97; P < .001), and cigarette sales were 16.6% lower (19.9 vs 16.6 packs per capita; P < .001). This reduction in sales equates to 153.9 million fewer packs being sold between 2017 and 2018.Conclusions. California's new cigarette tax was largely passed on to consumers. The new cigarette tax, combined with the Tobacco 21 law, have contributed to a rapid and substantial reduction in cigarette consumption in California.

Hepatitis C testing and re-testing among people attending sexual health services in Australia, and hepatitis C incidence among people with human immunodeficiency virus: analysis of national sentinel surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Direct acting antivirals are expected to drastically reduce the burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). However, rates of HCV testing, re-testing and incident infection in this group remain uncertain in Australia. We assessed trends in HCV testing, re-testing and incident infection among HIV-positive individuals, and evaluated factors associated with HCV re-testing and incident infection. METHODS: The study population consisted of HIV-positive individuals who visited a sexual health service involved in the Australian Collaboration for Coordinated Enhanced Sentinel Surveillance (ACCESS) between 2007 and 2015. Poisson regression was used to assess trends and to evaluate factors associated with HCV re-testing and incident HCV infection. RESULTS: There were 9227 HIV-positive individuals included in our testing rate analysis. Of 3799 HIV-positive/HCV-negative people that attended an ACCESS sexual health service more than once, 2079 (54.7%) were re-tested for HCV and were therefore eligible for our incidence analysis. The rate of HCV testing increased from 17.1 to 51.4 tests per 100 patient years between 2007 and 2015 (p for trend <0.01). Over the same period, HCV re-testing rates increased from 23.9 to 79.7 tests per 100 person years (p for trend <0.01). A clear increase in testing and re-testing began after 2011. Patients who identified as men who have sex with men and those with a history of injecting drug use experienced high rates of HCV re-testing over the course of the study period. Among those who re-tested, 157 incident HCV infections occurred at a rate of 2.5 events per 100 person years. Between 2007 and 2009, 2010-2011, 2012-2013 and 2014-2015, rates of incident HCV were 0.8, 1.5, 3.9 and 2.7 events per 100 person years, respectively (p for trend <0.01). Incident HCV was strongly associated with a history of injecting drug use. CONCLUSIONS: High rates of HCV testing and re-testing among HIV-positive individuals in Australia will assist strategies to achieve HCV elimination through rapid treatment scale up. Continued monitoring of HCV incidence in this population is essential for guiding both HCV prevention and treatment strategies.

Early Height and Weight Changes in Children Using Cotrimoxazole Prophylaxis With Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: The growth benefits of cotrimoxazole during early antiretroviral therapy (ART) are not well characterized. METHODS: Individuals enrolled in the Therapeutics Research, Education, and AIDS Training in Asia Pediatric HIV Observational Database were included if they started ART at ages 1 month-14 years and had both height and weight measurements available at ART initiation (baseline). Generalized estimating equations were used to identify factors associated with change in height-for-age z-score (HAZ), follow-up HAZ ≥ -2, change in weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), and follow-up WAZ ≥ -2. RESULTS: A total of 3217 children were eligible for analysis. The adjusted mean change in HAZ among cotrimoxazole and non-cotrimoxazole users did not differ significantly over the first 24 months of ART. In children who were stunted (HAZ < -2) at baseline, cotrimoxazole use was not associated with a follow-up HAZ ≥ -2. The adjusted mean change in WAZ among children with a baseline CD4 percentage (CD4%) >25% became significantly different between cotrimoxazole and non-cotrimoxazole users after 6 months of ART and remained significant after 24 months (overall P < .01). Similar changes in WAZ were observed in those with a baseline CD4% between 10% and 24% (overall P < .01). Cotrimoxazole use was not associated with a significant difference in follow-up WAZ in children with a baseline CD4% <10%. In those underweight (WAZ < -2) at baseline, cotrimoxazole use was associated with a follow-up WAZ ≥ -2 (adjusted odds ratio, 1.70 vs not using cotrimoxazole [95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.25], P < .01). This association was driven by children with a baseline CD4% ≥10%. CONCLUSIONS: Cotrimoxazole use is associated with benefits to WAZ but not HAZ during early ART in Asian children.

Association of socio-demographic characteristics with hypertension awareness, treatment, and control in Bangladesh.

Hypertension has been rapidly growing in Bangladesh. However, there has been limited analysis of differences in the hypertension cascade across socio-demographic groups. This study was a secondary analysis of the 2017-18 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Four dichotomous outcome variables - hypertension prevalence, awareness among those with hypertension, treatment among those aware, and control among those treated - were analyzed. The variation of each outcome was assessed across socio-demographic factors. The association between socio-demographic characteristics and outcomes was analyzed using logistic regression. Less than half of the hypertensive individuals were aware of their hypertension (42.5%), and awareness was higher among those who were older, female, of higher household wealth, and living in urban areas. Among those aware, most were receiving treatment (87.4%), and this proportion was higher in older individuals (89.2% among 65 + , 70.4% among 18-24; p < 0.001). One-third of those treated (33.8%) had their blood pressure controlled, and this was higher among younger and more educated individuals. In multivariable models stratified by rural/urban community, most of the aforementioned trends remained with additional differences between communities. Notably, the association of higher education level with treatment odds differed in rural and urban communities (OR 0.34 [95%CI 0.16, 0.75] in rural; OR 2.83 [95%CI 1.04, 7.73] in urban). Efforts to improve hypertension awareness among individuals who are younger, male, of lower household wealth, and in rural areas are required to address disparities in care. Socio-demographic variations in hypertension awareness, treatment, and control must be considered to design targeted interventions for each step of the cascade.

Cost-effectiveness of screening and treating anal pre-cancerous lesions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men living with HIV.

Background: Gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBM) living with HIV have a substantially elevated risk of anal cancer (85 cases per 100,000 person-years vs 1-2 cases per 100,000 person-years in the general population). The precursor to anal cancer is high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL). Findings regarding the cost-effectiveness of HSIL screening and treatment in GBM are conflicting. Using recent data on HSIL natural history and treatment effectiveness, we aimed to improve upon earlier models. Methods: We developed a Markov cohort model populated using observational study data and published literature. Our study population was GBM living with HIV aged ≥35 years. We used a lifetime horizon and framed our model on the Australian healthcare perspective. The intervention was anal HSIL screening and treatment. Our primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Findings: Anal cancer incidence was estimated to decline by 44-70% following implementation of annual HSIL screening and treatment. However, for the most cost-effective screening method assessed, the ICER relative to current practice, Australian Dollar (AUD) 135,800 per QALY gained, remained higher than Australia's commonly accepted willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD 50,000 per QALY gained. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, HSIL screening and treatment had a 20% probability of being cost-effective. When the sensitivity and specificity of HSIL screening were enhanced beyond the limits of current technology, without an increase in the cost of screening, ICERs improved but were still not cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness was achieved with a screening test that had 95% sensitivity, 95% specificity, and cost ≤ AUD 24 per test. Interpretation: Establishing highly sensitive and highly specific HSIL screening methods that cost less than currently available techniques remains a research priority. Funding: No specific funding was received for this analysis.

Recent Trends in Adult and Pediatric Antiretroviral Therapy Monitoring and Failure.

OBJECTIVE: To assess recent trends in the monitoring of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and detection of ART failure in adult and pediatric HIV clinics. METHODS: We used data collected from 21 adult and 17 pediatric sites (across 13 and 6 countries/territories, respectively) in the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS - Asia-Pacific cohort. ART failure was defined as viral, immune, or clinical consistent with WHO guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 8567 adults and 6149 children contributed data. Frequency of CD4 count monitoring declined between 2010 and 2019 among adult sites (from 1.93 to 1.06 tests/person per year, a 45.1% decline) and pediatric sites (from 2.16 to 0.86 testsperson per year, a 60.2% decline), whereas rates of viral load monitoring remained relatively stable. The proportion of adult and pediatric treatment failure detected as immune failure declined (from 73.4% to 50.0% and from 45.8% to 23.1%, respectively), whereas the proportion of failure detected as viral failure increased (from 7.8% to 25.0% and from 45.8% to 76.9%, respectively). The proportion of ART failure detected as clinical failure remained stable among adult and pediatric sites. The largest shifts in ART monitoring and failure type occurred in lower middle-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Although viral failure in our Asian cohort now comprises a larger portion of ART failure than in prior years, the diagnostic characteristics of immune and clinical failure, and recommendations on their management, remain important inclusions for regional ART guidelines.

Severe Recurrent Bacterial Pneumonia Among Children Living With HIV.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial pneumonia imparts a major morbidity and mortality burden on children living with HIV, yet effective prevention and treatment options are underutilized. We explored clinical factors associated with severe recurrent bacterial pneumonia among children living with HIV. METHODS: Children enrolled in the TREAT Asia Pediatric HIV Observational Database were included if they started antiretroviral therapy (ART) on or after January 1st, 2008. Factors associated with severe recurrent bacterial pneumonia were assessed using competing-risk regression. RESULTS: A total of 3,944 children were included in the analysis; 136 cases of severe recurrent bacterial pneumonia were reported at a rate of 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.5-7.7] events per 1,000 patient-years. Clinical factors associated with severe recurrent bacterial pneumonia were younger age [adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (aHR): 4.4 for <5 years versus ≥10 years, 95% CI: 2.2-8.4, P < 0.001], lower weight-for-age z-score (aHR: 1.5 for <-3.0 versus >-2.0, 95% CI: 1.1-2.3, P = 0.024), pre-ART diagnosis of severe recurrent bacterial pneumonia (aHR: 4.0 versus no pre-ART diagnosis, 95% CI: 2.7-5.8, P < 0.001), past diagnosis of symptomatic lymphoid interstitial pneumonitis or chronic HIV-associated lung disease, including bronchiectasis (aHR: 4.8 versus no past diagnosis, 95% CI: 2.8-8.4, P < 0.001), low CD4% (aHR: 3.5 for <10% versus ≥25%, 95% CI: 1.9-6.4, P < 0.001) and detectable HIV viral load (aHR: 2.6 versus undetectable, 95% CI: 1.2-5.9, P = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Children <10-years-old and those with low weight-for-age, a history of respiratory illness, low CD4% or poorly controlled HIV are likely to gain the greatest benefit from targeted prevention and treatment programs to reduce the burden of bacterial pneumonia in children living with HIV.

Maintenance of statin therapy among people living with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: Statins play a critical role in reducing the elevated risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) among people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, maintaining statin therapy is difficult and may be impeded further in PLHIV due to the risk of antiretroviral therapy (ART)/statin interactions. We estimated rates of statin discontinuation and reinitiation, and the percentage of days covered by statin use among PLHIV on ART, and investigated factors associated with these outcomes. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. METHODS: Clinical data from individuals attending the HIV-NAT Centre in Bangkok, Thailand between 2001 and 2020 were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves, competing-risk regression, and generalized estimating equations. Discontinuation was defined as statin cessation lasting 90 days. RESULTS: Data on 318 PLHIV were included. After 1, 3, and 5 years, 22.3, 50.8, and 61.1% had discontinued statin use, respectively. Among those who discontinued (n = 178), 52.0% reinitiated statin use within 5 years. Factors associated with statin discontinuation were low education level, fewer concomitant medications, and lack of ASCVD. Factors associated with statin reinitiation were older age, diabetes, and high levels of LDL cholesterol. The adjusted mean percentage of days covered by a statin was 86.7, 61.1, and 58.1% in the 6 months prior to 1, 3, and 5 years of follow-up, respectively. CONCLUSION: Maintenance of statin therapy is poor among PLHIV on ART but is not associated with using contraindicated antiretroviral/statin combinations. A better understanding of statin use in PLHIV will aid clinicians treating individuals and policy makers designing interventions for population-level ASCVD risk reduction.

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease thresholds for statin initiation among people living with HIV in Thailand: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: People living with HIV (PLHIV) have an elevated risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) compared to their uninfected peers. Expanding statin use may help alleviate this burden. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of reducing the recommend statin initiation threshold for primary ASCVD prevention among PLHIV in Thailand. METHODS: Our decision analytic microsimulation model randomly selected (with replacement) individuals from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (data collected between 1/January/2013 and 1/September/2019). Direct medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years were assigned in annual cycles over a lifetime horizon and discounted at 3% per year. We assumed the Thai healthcare sector perspective. The study population included PLHIV aged 35-75 years, without ASCVD, and receiving antiretroviral therapy. Statin initiation thresholds evaluated were 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10% (control), ≥7.5% and ≥5%. RESULTS: A statin initiation threshold of ASCVD risk ≥7.5% resulted in accumulation of 0.015 additional quality-adjusted life-years compared with an ASCVD risk threshold ≥10%, at an extra cost of 3,539 Baht ($US113), giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 239,000 Baht ($US7,670)/quality-adjusted life-year gained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing ASCVD risk ≥5% to ≥7.5% was 349,000 Baht ($US11,200)/quality-adjusted life-year gained. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 160,000 Baht ($US5,135)/quality-adjusted life-year gained, a 30.8% reduction in the average cost of low/moderate statin therapy led to the ASCVD risk threshold ≥7.5% becoming cost-effective compared with current practice. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing the recommended 10-year ASCVD risk threshold for statin initiation among PLHIV in Thailand would not currently be cost-effective. However, a lower threshold could become cost-effective with greater preference for cheaper statins.

The costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

Around two-thirds of all new HIV infections and 90% of syphilis cases occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Testing is a key strategy for the prevention and treatment of HIV and syphilis. Decision-makers in LMICs face considerable uncertainties about the costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing. This paper synthesizes economic evidence on the costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing interventions in LMICs and evidence on how costs change with the scale of delivery. We systematically searched multiple databases (Medline, Econlit, Embase, EMCARE, CINAHL, Global Health and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database) for peer-reviewed studies examining the costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing in LMICs. Thirty-five eligible studies were identified from 4869 unique citations. Most studies were conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa (N = 17) and most explored the costs of rapid HIV in facilities targeted the general population (N = 19). Only two studies focused on syphilis testing. Seventeen studies were cost analyses, 17 were cost-effectiveness analyses and 1 was cost-benefit analysis of HIV or syphilis testing. Most studies took a modelling approach (N = 25) and assumed costs increased linearly with scale. Ten studies examined cost efficiencies associated with scale, most reporting short-run economies of scale. Important drivers of the costs of scaling up included testing uptake and the price of test kits. The 'true' cost of scaling up testing is likely to be masked by the use of short-term decision frameworks, linear unit-cost projections (i.e. multiplying an average cost by a factor reflecting activity at a larger scale) and availability of health system capacity and infrastructure to supervise and support scale up. Cost data need to be routinely collected alongside other monitoring indicators as HIV and syphilis testing continues to be scaled up in LMICs.