Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland, 1991-2011 (I): the role of incomes, effects of socio-economic and political adversity and demographic change.

OBJECTIVE: This paper tests the extent to which differing trends in income, demographic change and the consequences of an earlier period of social, economic and political change might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality between 1991 and 2011 in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). STUDY DESIGN: Comparative time trend analyses and arithmetic modelling. METHODS: Three approaches were utilised to compare Scotland with E&W: 1. We modelled the impact of changes in income on alcohol-related deaths between 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 by applying plausible assumptions of the effect size through an arithmetic model. 2. We used contour plots, graphical exploration of age-period-cohort interactions and calculation of Intrinsic Estimator coefficients to investigate the effect of earlier exposure to social, economic and political adversity on alcohol-related mortality. 3. We recalculated the trends in alcohol-related deaths using the white population only to make a crude approximation of the maximal impact of changes in ethnic diversity. RESULTS: Real incomes increased during the 1990s but declined from around 2004 in the poorest 30% of the population of Great Britain. The decline in incomes for the poorest decile, the proportion of the population in the most deprived decile, and the inequality in alcohol-related deaths, were all greater in Scotland than in E&W. The model predicted less of the observed rise in Scotland (18% of the rise in men and 29% of the rise in women) than that in E&W (where 60% and 68% of the rise in men and women respectively was explained). One-third of the decline observed in alcohol-related mortality in Scottish men between 2001 and 2011 was predicted by the model, and the model was broadly consistent with the observed trends in E&W and amongst women in Scotland. An age-period interaction in alcohol-related mortality was evident for men and women during the 1990s and 2000s who were aged 40-70 years and who experienced rapidly increasing alcohol-related mortality rates. Ethnicity is unlikely to be important in explaining the trends or differences between Scotland and E&W. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland since the early 2000s and the differing trend to E&W were partly described by a model predicting the impact of declining incomes. Lagged effects from historical social, economic and political change remain plausible from the available data.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis.

OBJECTIVE: To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). STUDY DESIGN: Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. METHODS: We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. RESULTS: The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in alcohol-related mortality during the 1990s. CONCLUSIONS: Future policy should ensure that alcohol affordability and availability, as well as socio-economic inequality, are reduced, in order to maintain downward trends in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland.

Usefulness of preoperative extracranial imaging in radiologically suspicious glioblastoma in the West of Scotland and proposal of an imaging diagnostic pathway.

INTRODUCTION: A computed tomography chest, abdomen and pelvis scan (CT CAP) is probably unnecessary if a glioblastoma is detected on the initial CT brain (CTB) before more radiologically definitive magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We audited its frequency to develop and improve our diagnostic management pathway. METHODS: Twelve-month retrospective case series from 2018 of patients having an initial CTB suspicious for glioblastoma. We dichotomised patients into two groups: Group 1, tissue proven; and Group 2, non-tissue proven, owing to increased extracranial comorbidity in Group 2, which might influence a medical decision to request a CT CAP despite the radiological diagnosis of a glioblastoma being obvious on an initial CT. We quantified the frequencies of plain and contrast CTBs, CT CAPs and extracranial malignancy. RESULTS: In total, 131 patients had a CTB suspicious for glioblastoma; of these, 72% had a CT CAP and 17% had extracranial malignancy. In Group 1 (n = 84 [mean age 59 years]), 64% had a CT CAP. Plain CTB was undertaken in 24% of patients and contrast CTB in 76%. Extracranial malignancy was present in 8% and 12%. In Group 2 (n = 47 [mean age 73 years]), 85% had a CT CAP. Plain CTB was undertaken in 22% of patients and contrast CTB in 78%. Extracranial malignancy was present in 33% and 23%. Negative CT CAPs were found in ∼88% of CTBs in Group 1 and ∼75% of CTBs in Group 2. CONCLUSIONS: Patients having an initial contrast CTB suggestive of glioblastoma, prior to definitive MRI, who are going to be managed surgically, having no history of extracranial malignancy, do not necessarily need a CT CAP unless MRI is non-diagnostic.

Cost-impact study of rotavirus vaccination programme in Scotland.

Aim: In July 2013, the Scottish Government introduced a rotavirus vaccination programme into the childhood immunisation schedule. The aim of this research was to estimate the cost-impact of this programme. Methods: Data for rotavirus-related resource use were identified including laboratory reports, hospitalisations, attendances at accident and emergency departments (A&E), general practice consultations (GP), calls to the National Health Service telephone helpline (NHS24) and prescriptions for common rehydration treatments. We used an interrupted time series analysis approach to assess the impact on resource utilisation in all categories. Appropriate costs were added to the models and predicted pre-and post-vaccination mean annual costs were estimated. The cost of the vaccination programme was estimated using costs from the literature. Results: The vaccination programme was associated with a reduction in utilisation in all measured healthcare resource categories. These reductions were all statistically significant (at the 95% level) with p-values less than 0.001. Reductions ranged from 18% in calls to NHS24 to 73% in positive laboratory reports. The vaccination programme was associated with a reduction in annual healthcare resource costs of 38% (£595,000 per 100,000 infants < 5 years old) in our measured categories (including £495,000 from a reduction in hospital stays). The annual overall cost-impact of the rotavirus vaccination programme (the cost of delivering the programme minus the reduction in resource costs) was estimated at approximately £435,000 per 100,000 infants < 5 years old. Conclusion: The rotavirus vaccination programme was associated with a reduction in all measured categories of rotavirus-related resource use by infants < 5 years old.