Optimal allocation of resources among general and species-specific tools for plant pest biosecurity surveillance.

This paper proposes a surveillance model for plant pests that can optimally allocate resources among survey tools with varying properties. While some survey tools are highly specific for the detection of a single pest species, others are more generalized. There is considerable variation in the cost and sensitivity of these tools, but there are no guidelines or frameworks for identifying which tools are most cost-effective when used in surveillance programs that target the detection of newly invaded populations. To address this gap, we applied our model to design a trapping surveillance program in New Zealand for bark- and wood-boring insects, some of the most serious forest pests worldwide. Our findings show that exclusively utilizing generalized traps (GTs) proves to be highly cost-effective across a wide range of scenarios, particularly when they are capable of capturing all pest species. Implementing surveillance programs that only employ specialized traps (ST) is cost-effective only when these traps can detect highly damaging pests. However, even in such cases, they significantly lag in cost-effectiveness compared to GT-only programs due to their restricted coverage. When both GTs and STs are used in an integrated surveillance program, the total expected cost (TEC) generally diminishes when compared to programs relying on a single type of trap. However, this relative reduction in TEC is only marginally larger than that achieved with GT-only programs, as long as highly damaging species can be detected by GTs. The proportion of STs among the optimal required traps fluctuates based on several factors, including the relative pricing of GTs and STs, pest arrival rates, potential damage, and, more prominently, the coverage capacity of GTs. Our analysis suggests that deploying GTs extensively across landscapes appears to be more cost-effective in areas with either very high or very low levels of relative risk density, potential damage, and arrival rate. Finally, STs are less likely to be required when the pests that are detected by those tools have a higher likelihood of successful eradication because delaying detection becomes less costly for these species.

Forest Insect Biosecurity: Processes, Patterns, Predictions, Pitfalls.

The economic and environmental threats posed by non-native forest insects are ever increasing with the continuing globalization of trade and travel; thus, the need for mitigation through effective biosecurity is greater than ever. However, despite decades of research and implementation of preborder, border, and postborder preventative measures, insect invasions continue to occur, with no evidence of saturation, and are even predicted to accelerate. In this article, we review biosecurity measures used to mitigate the arrival, establishment, spread, and impacts of non-native forest insects and possible impediments to the successful implementation of these measures. Biosecurity successes are likely under-recognized because they are difficult to detect and quantify, whereas failures are more evident in the continued establishment of additional non-native species. There are limitations in existing biosecurity systems at global and country scales (for example, inspecting all imports is impossible, no phytosanitary measures are perfect, knownunknowns cannot be regulated against, and noncompliance is an ongoing problem). Biosecurity should be a shared responsibility across countries, governments, stakeholders, and individuals.

Linking human impacts to community processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.

Human impacts such as habitat loss, climate change and biological invasions are radically altering biodiversity, with greater effects projected into the future. Evidence suggests human impacts may differ substantially between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but the reasons for these differences are poorly understood. We propose an integrative approach to explain these differences by linking impacts to four fundamental processes that structure communities: dispersal, speciation, species-level selection and ecological drift. Our goal is to provide process-based insights into why human impacts, and responses to impacts, may differ across ecosystem types using a mechanistic, eco-evolutionary comparative framework. To enable these insights, we review and synthesise (i) how the four processes influence diversity and dynamics in terrestrial versus freshwater communities, specifically whether the relative importance of each process differs among ecosystems, and (ii) the pathways by which human impacts can produce divergent responses across ecosystems, due to differences in the strength of processes among ecosystems we identify. Finally, we highlight research gaps and next steps, and discuss how this approach can provide new insights for conservation. By focusing on the processes that shape diversity in communities, we aim to mechanistically link human impacts to ongoing and future changes in ecosystems.

Worldwide border interceptions provide a window into human-mediated global insect movement.

As part of national biosecurity programs, cargo imports, passenger baggage, and international mail are inspected at ports of entry to verify compliance with phytosanitary regulations and to intercept potentially damaging nonnative species to prevent their introduction. Detection of organisms during inspections may also provide crucial information about the species composition and relative arrival rates in invasion pathways that can inform the implementation of other biosecurity practices such as quarantines and surveillance. In most regions, insects are the main taxonomic group encountered during inspections. We gathered insect interception data from nine world regions collected from 1995 to 2019 to compare the composition of species arriving at ports in these regions. Collectively, 8,716 insect species were intercepted in these regions over the last 25 yr, with the combined international data set comprising 1,899,573 interception events, of which 863,972 were identified to species level. Rarefaction analysis indicated that interceptions comprise only a small fraction of species present in invasion pathways. Despite differences in inspection methodologies, as well as differences in the composition of import source regions and imported commodities, we found strong positive correlations in species interception frequencies between regions, particularly within the Hemiptera and Thysanoptera. There were also significant differences in species frequencies among insects intercepted in different regions. Nevertheless, integrating interception data among multiple regions would be valuable for estimating invasion risks for insect species with high likelihoods of introduction as well as for identifying rare but potentially damaging species.

Approaches for estimating benefits and costs of interventions in plant biosecurity across invasion phases.

Nonnative plant pests cause billions of dollars in damages. It is critical to prevent or reduce these losses by intervening at various stages of the invasion process, including pathway risk management (to prevent pest arrival), surveillance and eradication (to counter establishment), and management of established pests (to limit damages). Quantifying benefits and costs of these interventions is important to justify and prioritize investments and to inform biosecurity policy. However, approaches for these estimations differ in (1) the assumed relationship between supply, demand, and prices, and (2) the ability to assess different types of direct and indirect costs at invasion stages, for a given arrival or establishment probability. Here we review economic approaches available to estimate benefits and costs of biosecurity interventions to inform the appropriate selection of approaches. In doing so, we complement previous studies and reviews on estimates of damages from invasive species by considering the influence of economic and methodological assumptions. Cost accounting is suitable for rapid decisions, specific impacts, and simple methodological assumptions but fails to account for feedbacks, such as market adjustments, and may overestimate long-term economic impacts. Partial equilibrium models consider changes in consumer and producer surplus due to pest impacts or interventions and can account for feedbacks in affected sectors but require specialized economic models, comprehensive data sets, and estimates of commodity supply and demand curves. More intensive computable general equilibrium models can account for feedbacks across entire economies, including capital and labor, and linkages among these. The two major considerations in choosing an approach are (1) the goals of the analysis (e.g., consideration of a single pest or intervention with a limited range of impacts vs. multiple interventions, pests or sectors), and (2) the resources available for analysis such as knowledge, budget and time.

Recurrent bridgehead effects accelerate global alien ant spread.

Biological invasions are a major threat to biological diversity, agriculture, and human health. To predict and prevent new invasions, it is crucial to develop a better understanding of the drivers of the invasion process. The analysis of 4,533 border interception events revealed that at least 51 different alien ant species were intercepted at US ports over a period of 70 years (1914-1984), and 45 alien species were intercepted entering New Zealand over a period of 68 years (1955-2013). Most of the interceptions did not originate from species' native ranges but instead came from invaded areas. In the United States, 75.7% of the interceptions came from a country where the intercepted ant species had been previously introduced. In New Zealand, this value was even higher, at 87.8%. There was an overrepresentation of interceptions from nearby locations (Latin America for species intercepted in the United States and Oceania for species intercepted in New Zealand). The probability of a species' successful establishment in both the United States and New Zealand was positively related to the number of interceptions of the species in these countries. Moreover, species that have spread to more continents are also more likely to be intercepted and to make secondary introductions. This creates a positive feedback loop between the introduction and establishment stages of the invasion process, in which initial establishments promote secondary introductions. Overall, these results reveal that secondary introductions act as a critical driver of increasing global rates of invasions.

Global rise in emerging alien species results from increased accessibility of new source pools.

Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species-those never encountered as aliens before-therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1-16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict.

Considering unseen arrivals in predictions of establishment risk based on border biosecurity interceptions.

Assessing species establishment risk is an important task used for informing biosecurity activities aimed at preventing biological invasions. Propagule pressure is a major contributor to the probability of invading species establishment; however, direct assessment of numbers of individuals arriving is virtually never possible. Inspections conducted at borders by biosecurity officials record counts of species (or higher-level taxa) intercepted during inspections, which can be used as proxies for arrival rates. Such data may therefore be useful for predicting species establishments, though some species may establish despite never being intercepted. We present a stochastic process-based model of the arrival-interception-establishment process to predict species establishment risk from interception count data. The model can be used to estimate the probability of establishment, both for species that were intercepted and species that had no interceptions during a given observation period. We fit the stochastic model to data on two insect families, Cerambycidae and Aphididae, that were intercepted and/or established in the United States or New Zealand. We also explore the effects of variation in model parameters and the inclusion of an Allee effect in the establishment probability. Although interception data sets contain much noise due to variation in inspection policy, interception effort and among-species differences in detectability, our study shows that it is possible to use such data for predicting establishments and distinguishing differences in establishment risk profile between taxonomic groups. Our model provides a method for predicting the number of species that have breached border biosecurity, including both species detected during inspections but also "unseen arrivals" that have never been intercepted, but have not yet established a viable population. These estimates could inform prioritization of different taxonomic groups, pathways or identification effort in biosecurity programs.

First report of luminous stimuli eliciting sound production in weevils.

Light-based stimuli elicited acoustic responses in male Hylesinus aculeatus Say (Curculionidae: Scolytinae: Hylesinina) instantaneously, with 100% reliability. Stridulations were elicited with a white light beam in a dark environment and recorded with an ultrasonic microphone. Acoustic responses were consistent, and, when compared with sounds produced under stressful conditions (i.e. physical stimulation), no significant differences were found. Hylesinus aculeatus possess an elytro-tergal stridulatory organ and acoustic communication is only present in males. This is also the first report of acoustic communication for this species. Instantaneous light-elicited acoustic communication has potential applications in the development of electronic traps and real-time acoustic detection and identification of beetles, border biosecurity, and noise-reduction in acoustic data collection.

Olfactory Cues, Visual Cues, and Semiochemical Diversity Interact During Host Location by Invasive Forest Beetles.

Plant-feeding insects use visual and olfactory cues (shape, color, plant volatiles) for host location, but the relative importance of different cues and interactions with non-host-plant volatiles in ecosystems of varying plant biodiversity is unclear for most species. We studied invasive bark beetles and wood borers associated with pine trees to characterize interactions among color, host and non-host volatiles, by employing traps that mimic tree trunks. Cross-vane flight intercept traps (black, green, red, white, yellow, clear) and black funnel traps were used with and without attractants (α-pinene + ethanol), repellents (non-host green leaf volatiles, 'GLV'), and attractant/repellent combinations in four pine forests in New Zealand. We trapped 274,594 Hylurgus ligniperda, 7842 Hylastes ater, and 16,301 Arhopalus ferus. Trap color, attractant, and color × attractant effects were highly significant. Overall, black and red traps had the highest catches, irrespective of the presence of attractants. Alpha-pinene plus ethanol increased trap catch of H. ligniperda 200-fold but only 6-fold for H. ater and 2-fold for A. ferus. Green leaf volatiles had a substantial repellent effect on trap catch of H. ligniperda but less on H. ater and A. ferus. Attack by H. ligniperda was halved when logs were treated with GLV, and a similar effect was observed when logs were placed among broadleaved understory shrubs emitting GLV. Overall, H. ligniperda was most strongly affected by the olfactory cues used, whereas H. ater and A. ferus were more strongly affected by visual cues. Collectively, the results support the semiochemical diversity hypothesis, indicating that non-host plant volatiles from diverse plant communities or artificial dispensers can contribute to resistance against herbivores by partly disrupting host location.

Eradication of Invading Insect Populations: From Concepts to Applications.

Eradication is the deliberate elimination of a species from an area. Given that international quarantine measures can never be 100% effective, surveillance for newly arrived populations of nonnative species coupled with their eradication represents an important strategy for excluding potentially damaging insect species. Historically, eradication efforts have not always been successful and have sometimes been met with public opposition. But new developments in our understanding of the dynamics of low-density populations, the availability of highly effective treatment tactics, and bioeconomic analyses of eradication strategies offer new opportunities for developing more effective surveillance and eradication programs. A key component that connects these new developments is the harnessing of Allee effects, which naturally promote localized species extinction. Here we review these developments and suggest how research might enhance eradication strategies.

Host range expansion is density dependent.

The realized host range of herbivores is expected to increase with herbivore population density. Theory also predicts that trait similarity and phylogenetic relatedness between native and exotic plants is expected to increase the susceptibility of introduced plants to feeding by native herbivores. Whether the ability of native herbivores to extend their host range to introduced species is density dependent is still unknown. We addressed this question by monitoring pine processionary moth (PPM, Thaumetopoea pityocampa) attacks during nine consecutive years on 41 pine species (8 native and 33 introduced) planted in an arboretum. The survey encompassed latent and outbreak periods. A total of 28 pine species were attacked by PPM. There was no difference in the probability of attack between native and introduced pine species. Host range increased and was more phylogenetically clustered during outbreak than latent periods. When population density increased, PPM expanded its diet breadth by attacking introduced pine species that were closely related to native hosts. This study demonstrates the density dependence of host range expansion in a common pine herbivore. Importantly, it supports the idea that the degree of phylogenetic proximity between host species can be a better predictor of attacks than the introduction status, which may help to predict the outcomes of new plant-herbivore interactions.

Habitat filtering by landscape and local forest composition in native and exotic New Zealand birds.

Untangling the relative influences of environmental filtering and biotic interactions on species coexistence at various spatial scales is a long-held issue in community ecology. Separating these processes is especially important to understand the influences of introduced exotic species on the composition of native communities. For this aim, we investigated coexistence patterns in New Zealand exotic and native birds along multiple-scale habitat gradients. We built a Bayesian hierarchical model, contrasting the abundance variations of 10 native and 11 exotic species in 501 point counts spread along landscape and local-scale gradients of forest structure and composition. Although native and exotic species both occurred in a wide range of habitats, they were separated by landscape-level variables. Exotic species were most abundant in exotic conifer plantations embedded in farmland matrices, while native birds predominated in areas dominated by continuous native forest. In exotic plantation forests, and to a lesser extent in native forests, locally co-occurring exotic and native species were segregated along a gradient of vegetation height. These results support the prediction that exotic and native bird species are segregated along gradients related to anthropogenic disturbance and habitat availability. In addition, native and exotic species overlapped little in a multivariate functional space based on 10 life history traits associated with habitat selection. Hence, habitat segregation patterns were probably mediated more by environmental filtering processes than by competition at landscape and local scales.

Predicting how altering propagule pressure changes establishment rates of biological invaders across species pools.

Biological invasions resulting from international trade can cause major environmental and economic impacts. Propagule pressure is perhaps the most important factor influencing establishment, although actual arrival rates of species are rarely recorded. Furthermore, the pool of potential invaders includes many species that vary in their arrival rate and establishment potential. Therefore, we stress that it is essential to consider the size and composition of species pools arriving from source regions when estimating probabilities of establishment and effects of pathway infestation rates. To address this, we developed a novel framework and modeling approach to enable prediction of future establishments in relation to changes in arrival rate across entire species pools. We utilized 13 828 border interception records from the United States and New Zealand for 444 true bark beetle (Scolytinae) and longhorned beetle (Cerambycidae) species detected between 1949 and 2008 as proxies for arrival rates to model the relationship between arrival and establishment rates. Nonlinearity in this relationship implies that measures intended to reduce the unintended transport of potential invaders (such as phytosanitary treatments) must be highly effective in order to substantially reduce the rate of future invasions, particularly if trade volumes continue to increase.

Designing cost-efficient surveillance for early detection and control of multiple biological invaders.

Wood borers and bark beetles are among the most serious forest pests worldwide. Many such species have become successful invaders, often causing substantial, costly damages to forests. Here we design and evaluate the cost-efficiency of a trap-based surveillance program for early detection of wood borers and bark beetles at risk of establishing in New Zealand. Although costly, a surveillance program could lead to earlier detection of newly established forest pests, thereby increasing the likelihood of successful eradication and reducing control costs and damages from future invasions. We develop a mechanistic bioeconomic model that relates surveillance intensity (i.e., trap density) and invasion size to probabilities of detection and control. It captures the dynamics of invasive species establishment, spread, and damages to urban and plantation forests. We employ the model to design surveillance programs that provide the greatest net present benefits. Our findings suggest that implementing a surveillance trapping program for invasive wood borers and bark beetles would provide positive net benefits under all scenarios considered. The economically optimal trapping strategy calls for a very high investment in surveillance: about 10 000 traps in each year of the 30-year surveillance program, at a present value cost of US$54 million. This strategy provides a 39% reduction in costs compared with no surveillance, corresponding to an expected net present benefit of approximately US$300 million. Although surveillance may provide the greatest net benefits when implemented at relatively high levels, our findings also show that even low levels of surveillance are worthwhile: the economic benefits from surveillance more than offset the rising costs associated with increasing trapping density. Our results also show that the cost-efficiency of surveillance varies across target regions because of differences in pest introduction and damage accumulation rates across locales, with greater surveillance warranted in areas closer to at-risk, high-value resources and in areas that receive more imported goods that serve as an invasion pathway.

Body size and sequence of host colonisation predict the presence of acoustic signalling in beetles.

Acoustic communication is widespread in beetles, is often sexually dimorphic, and plays a significant role in behaviours such as premating recognition, courtship, and copulation. However, the factors that determine the presence or absence of acoustic signalling in a given species remain unclear. We examined acoustic communication in bark beetles (Scolytinae) and pinhole borers (Platypodinae), which are two speciose groups with widespread sound production capabilities. We show that body size along with the sequence of host colonisation predict the presence of acoustic communication, and report, for the first time in the animal kingdom, a size limit-1.9 mm-below which acoustic signalling ceases to be present.

Improving the efficiency of lepidopteran pest detection and surveillance: constraints and opportunities for multiple-species trapping.

Surveillance using attractants for invasive species can allow early detection of new incursions and provide decision support to response programs. Simultaneous trapping for multiple species, by baiting traps with several lures, is expected to increase the number of species that can be targeted in surveillance programs and improve the cost-effectiveness without affecting surveillance coverage. We tested this hypothesis by choosing four potential forest and urban lepidopteran pest species that are present in Europe but not yet in New Zealand and many other countries. We deployed traps in central and southern Europe with single lures or all possible species combinations (up to four lures per trap). There was only limited interference, apparently due to trap saturation, but no evidence for interspecific repellency among lures for gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, fall webworm, Hyphantria cunea, pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, and pine shoot moth, Rhyacionia buoliana. To assess what factors may be important in species compatibility/suitability for multiple-species trapping, we combined our results with those of previous studies conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture. For 75 combinations of pheromones, tested singly or in combination, 19 % showed no effect on trap catch for any of the species tested. In the other cases, either one or both species showed a reduction in trap catch. However, few lure combinations caused complete or nearly complete suppression. For most combinations, catches were still sufficiently high for detection purposes. Species from the same superfamily exhibited more interference than more distantly related species. Together, these results suggest that there are opportunities to improve the range of exotic pests under surveillance, at little additional cost, by multiple-species trapping for which compatibility has been demonstrated.

Communication disruption of Epiphyas postvittana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) by using two formulations at four point source densities in vineyards.

Light brown apple moth [Epiphyas postvittana (Walker)] is now established as an economic and quarantine pest in California, and new technologies are being investigated to increase options for its management. Two new organic formulations for mating disruption, SPLAT LBAM HD-O and organic Hercon Biotie (biodegradable) were field tested at four point source densities (25, 72, 322, and 500/ha) and compared with the standard Isomate LBAM Plus (500/ha, as a positive control) and an untreated (negative) control. Assessment involved trapping using synthetic lures and virgin females. In total, 175,776 male light brown apple moths were caught to both the caged females and synthetic lures, from 10 February to 19 May 2011. The light brown apple moth catch dramatically decreased from baseline measurements after the treatments were applied, with the highest density treatments reducing catch to below 10% of the catch in the untreated controls within the first week (> 90% disruption). In synthetic lure traps, the SPLAT and Biotie treatment performed similarly well over all rates (P = 0.317 for posttreatment percentage communication disruption), but SPLAT performed better at disrupting virgin female traps (P = 0.045). There was a significant increase in disruption with an increasing number of points/ha (P < 0.001). Disruption of communication was similar for all three technologies (SPLAT, Biotie and Isomate) at 500 points/ha for both types of trap (P > 0.74). Disruption of this species in vineyards is thus highly feasible.

Experimental characterization and automatic identification of stridulatory sounds inside wood.

The propagation of animal vocalizations in water and in air is a well-studied phenomenon, but sound produced by bark and wood-boring insects, which feed and reproduce inside trees, is poorly understood. Often being confined to the dark and chemically saturated habitat of wood, many bark- and woodborers have developed stridulatory mechanisms to communicate acoustically. Despite their ecological and economic importance and the unusual medium used for acoustic communication, very little is known about sound production in these insects, or their acoustic interactions inside trees. Here, we use bark beetles (Scolytinae) as a model system to study the effects of wooden tissue on the propagation of insect stridulations and propose algorithms for their automatic identification. We characterize distance dependence of the spectral parameters of stridulatory sounds, propose data-based models for the power decay of the stridulations in both outer and inner bark, provide optimal spectral ranges for stridulation detectability and develop automatic methods for their detection and identification. We also discuss the acoustic discernibility of species cohabitating the same log. The species tested can be acoustically identified with 99% of accuracy at distances up to 20 cm and detected to the greatest extent in the 2-6 kHz frequency band. Phloem was a better medium for sound transmission than bark.

Consistent trade-offs in ecosystem services between land covers with different production intensities.

Sustaining multiple ecosystem services across a landscape requires an understanding of how consistently services are shaped by different categories of land uses. Yet, this understanding is generally constrained by the availability of fine-resolution data for multiple services across large areas and the spatial variability of land-use effects on services. We systematically surveyed published literature for New Zealand (1970-2015) to quantify the supply of 17 non-production services across 25 land covers (as a proxy for land use). We found a consistent trade-off in the services supplied by anthropogenic land covers with a high production intensity (e.g. cropping) versus those with extensive or no production. By contrast, forest cover was not associated with any distinct patterns of service supply. By drawing on existing research findings, we reveal complementarity and redundancy (potentially influencing resilience) in service supply from different land covers. This will guide practitioners in shaping land systems that sustainably support human well-being.