Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Progression as Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk: Meta-Analysis of 119 Clinical Trials Involving 100 667 Patients.

BACKGROUND: To quantify the association between effects of interventions on carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) progression and their effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. METHODS: We systematically collated data from randomized, controlled trials. cIMT was assessed as the mean value at the common-carotid-artery; if unavailable, the maximum value at the common-carotid-artery or other cIMT measures were used. The primary outcome was a combined CVD end point defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization procedures, or fatal CVD. We estimated intervention effects on cIMT progression and incident CVD for each trial, before relating the 2 using a Bayesian meta-regression approach. RESULTS: We analyzed data of 119 randomized, controlled trials involving 100 667 patients (mean age 62 years, 42% female). Over an average follow-up of 3.7 years, 12 038 patients developed the combined CVD end point. Across all interventions, each 10 µm/y reduction of cIMT progression resulted in a relative risk for CVD of 0.91 (95% Credible Interval, 0.87-0.94), with an additional relative risk for CVD of 0.92 (0.87-0.97) being achieved independent of cIMT progression. Taken together, we estimated that interventions reducing cIMT progression by 10, 20, 30, or 40 µm/y would yield relative risks of 0.84 (0.75-0.93), 0.76 (0.67-0.85), 0.69 (0.59-0.79), or 0.63 (0.52-0.74), respectively. Results were similar when grouping trials by type of intervention, time of conduct, time to ultrasound follow-up, availability of individual-participant data, primary versus secondary prevention trials, type of cIMT measurement, and proportion of female patients. CONCLUSIONS: The extent of intervention effects on cIMT progression predicted the degree of CVD risk reduction. This provides a missing link supporting the usefulness of cIMT progression as a surrogate marker for CVD risk in clinical trials.

The Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis (Proof-ATHERO) Consortium: Design and Rationale.

Atherosclerosis - the pathophysiological mechanism shared by most cardiovascular diseases - can be directly or indirectly assessed by a variety of clinical tests including measurement of carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, -ankle-brachial index, pulse wave velocity, and coronary -artery calcium. The Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis -(Proof-ATHERO) consortium (https://clinicalepi.i-med.ac.at/research/proof-athero/) collates de-identified individual-participant data of studies with information on atherosclerosis measures, risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and incidence of cardiovascular diseases. It currently comprises 74 studies that involve 106,846 participants from 25 countries and over 40 cities. In summary, 21 studies recruited participants from the general population (n = 67,784), 16 from high-risk populations (n = 22,677), and 37 as part of clinical trials (n = 16,385). Baseline years of contributing studies range from April 1980 to July 2014; the latest follow-up was until June 2019. Mean age at baseline was 59 years (standard deviation: 10) and 50% were female. Over a total of 830,619 person-years of follow-up, 17,270 incident cardiovascular events (including coronary heart disease and stroke) and 13,270 deaths were recorded, corresponding to cumulative incidences of 2.1% and 1.6% per annum, respectively. The consortium is coordinated by the Clinical Epidemiology Team at the Medical University of Innsbruck, Austria. Contributing studies undergo a detailed data cleaning and harmonisation procedure before being incorporated in the Proof-ATHERO central database. Statistical analyses are being conducted according to pre-defined analysis plans and use established methods for individual-participant data meta-analysis. Capitalising on its large sample size, the multi-institutional collaborative Proof-ATHERO consortium aims to better characterise, understand, and predict the development of atherosclerosis and its clinical consequences.

Hemoglobin levels and new-onset heart failure in the community.

BACKGROUND: In established cardiovascular disease and heart failure (HF), low hemoglobin levels are associated with unfavorable outcome. Whether hemoglobin levels are associated with the development of new-onset HF in the population is unclear. This study sought to investigate the relationship between hemoglobin levels and development of new-onset HF in the community. METHODS: In 6,744 patients from PREVEND, a prospective, community-based, cohort study, we analyzed the relationship between hemoglobin levels and the risk of new-onset HF. RESULTS: Mean age (±SD) was 53 ± 12 years, 49.8% was male, and mean hemoglobin level was 13.7 ± 1.2 g/dL. During a median follow-up of 8.3 years (interquartile range 7.8-8.9), 217 subjects (3.2%) were newly diagnosed with HF. The association between hemoglobin levels and the risk for new-onset HF was U shaped (P< .001), remaining significant after full adjustment in a multivariable model with established cardiovascular risk factors (P= .015). Furthermore, a increased annual HF incidence was already observed in subjects with high-normal hemoglobin levels (men >16 g/dL or women >15 g/dL; P= .041), whereas on the other side of the distribution, only severe anemia (men <11 g/dL or women <10 g/dL; P= .018) was associated with a higher annual incidence. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of hemoglobin level on the risk of new-onset HF in the community is best described as U shaped. Interestingly, higher hemoglobin levels, already within the high-reference range, are associated with an increased incidence. This in contrast to anemia, where a higher annual HF incidence was only observed for severe anemia.

Incidence and epidemiology of new onset heart failure with preserved vs. reduced ejection fraction in a community-based cohort: 11-year follow-up of PREVEND.

AIMS: Differences in clinical characteristics and outcome of patients with established heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are well established. Data on epidemiology and prediction of new onset HFpEF, compared with HFrEF, have not been described. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 8592 subjects of the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND), a community-based, middle-aged cohort study, we performed cause-specific hazard analyses to study the predictive value of risk factors and established cardiovascular biomarkers on new onset HFrEF vs. HFpEF (left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 40 and ≥ 50%, respectively). A P-value for competing risk (Pcr) <0.10 between HFrEF and HFpEF was considered statistically significant. All potential new onset heart failure cases were reviewed and adjudicated to HFrEF or HFpEF by an independent committee. During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, 374 (4.4%) subjects were diagnosed with heart failure, of which 125 (34%) with HFpEF and 241 (66%) with HFrEF. The average time to diagnosis of new onset HFrEF was 6.6 ± 3.6 years; it was 8.3 ± 3.3 years for HFpEF (P < 0.001). Male gender was associated with new onset HFrEF, whereas female gender with new onset HFpEF (Pcr < 0.001). Higher age and increased N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) increased the risk for both HFpEF and HFrEF, although for age this was stronger for HFpEF (Pcr = 0.018), whereas NT-proBNP was stronger associated with risk for HFrEF (Pcr = 0.083). Current smokers, increased highly sensitive troponin T, and previous myocardial infarction conferred a significantly increased risk for HFrEF, but not for HFpEF (Pcr = 0.093, 0.091, and 0.061, respectively). Conversely, a history of atrial fibrillation, increased urinary albumin excretion (UAE), and cystatin C were significantly more associated with the risk for HFpEF, but not for HFrEF (Pcr < 0.001, 0.061, and 0.033, respectively). The presence of obesity at baseline was associated with comparable prognostic information for both HFpEF and HFrEF. CONCLUSION: Higher age, UAE, cystatin C, and history of atrial fibrillation are strong risk factors for new onset HFpEF. This underscores differential pathophysiological mechanisms for both subtypes of heart failure.

Comparing new onset heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and new onset heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: an epidemiologic perspective.

The incidence and prevalence of heart failure is increasing, especially heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) relative to heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). For both HFrEF and HFpEF, there is need to shift our focus from secondary to primary prevention. Detailed epidemiologic data on both HFpEF and HFrEF are needed to allow early identification of at-risk subjects. Current cohorts with new onset heart failure lack uniformity with respect to diagnosis, follow-up, and population characteristics, but most important, fail to distinguish between HFpEF and HFrEF. Studies on prevalent heart failure show ischemic heart disease as the predominant risk factor for HFrEF, while hypertension, atrial fibrillation, and diabetes are risk factors for HFpEF. As it becomes increasingly clear that both subtypes of heart failure are different syndromes, new cohorts and trials are necessary to obtain separate data on both subtypes of heart failure.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 and Risk of New Onset Heart Failure With Preserved or Reduced Ejection Fraction: The PREVEND Study.

Background The role of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) in the development of new-onset heart failure (HF) with reduced (HFrEF) or preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) in the general population is unknown. Therefore, we set out to investigate associations of C-terminal FGF23 with development of new-onset HF and, more specifically, with HFrEF or HFpEF in a large, prospective, population-based cohort. Methods and Results We studied 6830 participants (aged 53.8±12.1 years; 49.7% men; estimated glomerular filtration rate, 93.1±15.7 mL/min per 1.73 m2) in the community-based PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease) study who were free of HF at baseline. Cross-sectional multivariable linear regression analysis showed that ferritin (standardized ß, -0.24; P<0.001) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (standardized ß, -0.13; P<0.001) were the strongest independent correlates of FGF23. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was used to study the association between baseline FGF23 and incident HF, HFrEF (ejection fraction ≤40%) or HFpEF (ejection fraction ≥50%). After median follow-up of 7.4 [IQR 6.9-7.9] years, 227 individuals (3.3%) developed new-onset HF, of whom 132 had HFrEF and 88 had HFpEF. A higher FGF23 level was associated with an increased risk of incident HF (fully adjusted hazard ratio, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.06-1.57]) and with an increased risk of incident HFrEF (fully adjusted hazard ratio, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.01-1.69]). The association between FGF23 and incident HFpEF lost statistical significance after multivariable adjustment (hazard ratio, 1.22 [95% CI, 0.87-1.71]). Conclusions Higher FGF23 is independently associated with new-onset HFrEF in analyses fully adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and other potential confounders. The association between FGF23 and incident HFpEF lost statistical significance upon multivariable adjustment.

Long-term effects of fosinopril and pravastatin on cardiovascular events in subjects with microalbuminuria:Ten years of follow-up of Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease Intervention Trial (PREVEND IT).

BACKGROUND: The PREVEND IT investigated whether treatment targeted at lowering urinary albumin excretion (UAE) would reduce adverse cardiovascular events. We obtained extended follow-up data to approximately 10 years to investigate the long-term effects of fosinopril 20 mg and pravastatin 40 mg on cardiovascular outcomes in subjects with UAE >15 mg per 24 hours. METHODS: The original PREVEND IT consisted of 864 participants and 839 survivors after 4 years. For every survivor, the primary end point determined by the combined incidence of cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization for cardiovascular morbidity was registered in several national databases and electronic hospital systems. RESULTS: Mean total follow-up of the extended PREVEND IT was 9.5 years (range 9.4-10.7 years). Four years of treatment with fosinopril was not associated with a reduction in the primary end point compared with placebo (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% CI 0.61-1.24 [P = .42]) during long-term follow-up. After 9.5 years, subjects with a baseline UAE in the upper quintile (>50 mg/24 hours) had a total event rate of 29.5% and were at a higher risk for developing cardiovascular disease compared with less UAE (hazard ratio 2.03, 95% CI 1.38-2.97 [P ≤ .01]). In addition, 4 years of fosinopril treatment resulted in a risk reduction of 45% (95% CI 6%-75% [P = .04]) in this group compared with placebo. Subjects originally assigned to pravastatin had no overall risk reduction in the primary end point (P = .99). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated UAE is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and morbidity after 9.5 years of follow-up, with a doubling of the risk if the UAE is >50 mg per 24 hours. In this group, the benefits of 4-year treatment with fosinopril were sustained during posttrial follow-up for cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. We propose that UAE be used to estimate risk in the general population and that large clinical trials be designed to confirm the hypothesis that angiotensin-converting enzyme-inhibitor treatment may be beneficial in patients with mildly elevated UAE despite the absence of other comorbidities.

Proenkephalin and the risk of new-onset heart failure: data from prevention of renal and vascular end-stage disease.

BACKGROUND: Enkephalins of the opioid system exert several cardiorenal effects. Proenkephalin (PENK), a stable surrogate, is associated with heart failure (HF) development after myocardial infarction and worse cardiorenal function and prognosis in patients with HF. The association between plasma PENK concentrations and new-onset HF in the general population remains to be established. HYPOTHESIS: We hypothesized that plasma PENK concentrations are associated with new-onset HF in the general population. METHODS: We included 6677 participants from the prevention of renal and vascular end-stage disease study and investigated determinants of PENK concentrations and their association with new-onset HF (both reduced [HFrEF] and preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF]). RESULTS: Median PENK concentrations were 52.7 (45.1-61.9) pmol/L. Higher PENK concentrations were associated with poorer renal function and higher NT-proBNP concentrations. The main determinants of higher PENK concentrations were lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), lower urinary creatinine excretion, and lower body mass index (all p < .001). After a median 8.3 (7.8-8.8) years follow-up, 221 participants developed HF; 127 HFrEF and 94 HFpEF. PENK concentrations were higher in subjects who developed HF compared with those who did not, 56.2 (45.2-67.6) versus 52.7 (45.1-61.6) pmol/L, respectively (p = .003). In competing-risk analyses, higher PENK concentrations were associated with higher risk of new-onset HF (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.09[1.47-2.97], p < .001), including both HFrEF (HR = 2.31[1.48-3.61], p < .001) and HFpEF (HR = 1.74[1.02-2.96], p = .042). These associations were, however, lost after adjustment for eGFR. CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, higher PENK concentrations were associated with lower eGFR and higher NT-proBNP concentrations. Higher PENK concentrations were not independently associated with new-onset HFrEF and HFpEF and mainly confounded by eGFR.

Legacy effect of delayed blood pressure lowering drug treatment in middle-aged adults with mildly elevated blood pressure: systematic review and meta-analysis.

To investigate if there is evidence for a 'legacy effect' for blood pressure (BP) lowering treatment, that is, worse health outcomes from not initiating drug treatment at a systolic BP threshold of 140 mmHg in middle-age adults. We systematically reviewed studies comparing the effects of delayed BP treatment (placebo/untreated during the trial or no previous treatment at trial entry) vs. early treatment (actively treated during the trial or previous BP treatment at trial entry) on mortality in the short term (5-year in-trial period) and long term (≥10 years in total period). The data were pooled using Peto ORs. A subgroup analysis by 10-year Framingham risk score was performed. Three studies (ALLHAT, Oslo and PREVEND-IT) involving 4746 participants were included. The results were heavily influenced by the ALLHAT trial. We found no significant difference in all-cause mortality between 'delayed BP' and 'early treatment' in the short-term OR 0.95 (95% CI 0.68-1.32) or long-term OR 0.90 (95% CI 0.78-1.04), with similar results for mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). The effects of delayed BP lowering treatment on long-term all-cause and CVD mortality did not vary with baseline risk of CVD. The review showed no clinically adverse 'legacy effect' on mortality or major CVD event from not treating middle-aged adults at a systolic BP threshold of 140 mmHg or over. The results were consistent for all CVD risk subgroups. Although these studies are non-randomised post-hoc analyses, they may allay concerns that early treatment of elevated systolic BP is necessary to prevent CVD events in primary prevention populations.

Digital arterial pressure pulse wave analysis and cardiovascular events in the general population: the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study.

BACKGROUND: Arterial stiffness influences the contour of the digital pressure pulse wave. METHOD: Here, we investigated whether the digital pulse propagation index (DPPI), based on the digital pressure pulse wave, DPPI is associated with cardiovascular events, heart failure, and mortality in a large population-based cohort. Between 2001 and 2003, DPPI was measured with a PortaPres noninvasive hemodynamic monitoring device (FinaPres Medical Systems, Amsterdam, The Netherlands) in participants of the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study, a community-based cohort. We assessed the main determinants of the DPPI and investigated associations of DPPI with cardiovascular events and mortality. RESULTS: The study included 5474 individuals. Mean age was 52.3 ±â€Š11.8 years and 50.5% was male. Median baseline DPPI was 5.81 m/s (interquartile range 5.47-6.20). Higher age, mean arterial blood pressure, body height, heart rate, current smoking, and lower HDL cholesterol levels and waist circumference were independent determinants of the DPPI (r = 0.43). After adjustment for heart rate, highlogDPPI was associated with all-cause mortality [hazard ratio: 1.67, 95% confidence interval (1.55-1.81) per SD; P < 0.001], cardiovascular mortality [hazard ratio 1.95 (1.72-2.22); P < 0.001], and incident heart failure with reduced ejection fraction [hazard ratio 1.81 (1.60-2.06); P < 0.001]. These associations remained independent upon further adjustment for confounders. Optimal cutoff values for DPPI ranged between 6.1 and 6.3 m/s for all endpoints. After multivariable adjustment, DPPI was no longer associated with coronary artery disease events or cerebrovascular events. CONCLUSION: The DPPI is associated with an increased risk of development of new onset heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but not with coronary artery events or cerebrovascular events.

Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals: insights from the PROG-IMT consortium.

AIMS: Averaged measurements, but not the progression based on multiple assessments of carotid intima-media thickness, (cIMT) are predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals. Whether this is true for conventional risk factors is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: An individual participant meta-analysis was used to associate the annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with future cardiovascular disease risk in 13 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration (n = 34,072). Follow-up data included information on a combined cardiovascular disease endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death. In secondary analyses, annualised progression was replaced with average. Log hazard ratios per standard deviation difference were pooled across studies by a random effects meta-analysis. In primary analysis, the annualised progression of total cholesterol was marginally related to a higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.07). The annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not associated with future cardiovascular disease risk. In secondary analysis, average systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.11 to 1.29) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) were related to a greater, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97) was related to a lower risk of future cardiovascular disease events. CONCLUSION: Averaged measurements of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol displayed significant linear relationships with the risk of future cardiovascular disease events. However, there was no clear association between the annualised progression of these conventional risk factors in individuals with the risk of future clinical endpoints.

Heart failure and inflammation-related biomarkers as predictors of new-onset diabetes in the general population.

BACKGROUND: There is a strong reciprocal relationship between heart failure (HF) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Shared pathophysiological mechanisms might be a possible explanation. Therefore, we hypothesised that biomarkers linked to HF would also predict new-onset type 2 DM in the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We utilized the Prevention of Vascular and Renal End-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort (mean age 48.9years, 51% female) to study the relationship between HF and DM in 7953 participants free of baseline HF and DM. Multiple HF-related, inflammation-related and renal function-related biomarkers were evaluated regarding their predictive utility in new-onset DM. Incidence of DM in participants who developed HF was 11.8%, versus 5.4% in those who had not developed HF (p<0.001). Incidence of HF in participants who developed DM was 8.5%, versus 3.8% in those who had not developed DM (p<0.001). Classical HF biomarkers, NT-proBNP and hs-TnT were not associated with an increased risk for new-onset DM. However, inflammatory biomarkers hs-CRP [hazard ratio (HR) 1.16, (95% CI 1.05 to 1.29), p=0.005], procalcitonin [HR 1.34, (95% CI 1.07 to 1.69), p=0.012] and PAI-1 [HR 1.55, (95% CI 1.37 to 1.75), p<0.001] remained significantly associated with new-onset DM, even after multivariable adjustment for established predictors of DM. CONCLUSIONS: Although HF and DM have a strong correlation with each other, systemic biomarkers that predict HF do not have a predictive value in new-onset DM. This suggests that other, indirect, pathophysiological mechanisms related to inflammation may explain their strong relation.

Predictors and outcomes of heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction.

AIMS: While heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are well described, determinants and outcomes of heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF) remain unclear. We sought to examine clinical and biochemical predictors of incident HFmrEF in the community. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pooled data from four community-based longitudinal cohorts, with ascertainment of new heart failure (HF) classified into HFmrEF [ejection fraction (EF) 41-49%], HFpEF (EF ≥50%), and HFrEF (EF ≤40%). Predictors of incident HF subtypes were assessed using multivariable Cox models. Among 28 820 participants free of HF followed for a median of 12 years, there were 200 new HFmrEF cases, compared with 811 HFpEF and 1048 HFrEF. Clinical predictors of HFmrEF included age, male sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, and prior myocardial infarction (multivariable adjusted P ≤ 0.003 for all). Biomarkers that predicted HFmrEF included natriuretic peptides, cystatin-C, and high-sensitivity troponin (P ≤ 0.0004 for all). Natriuretic peptides were stronger predictors of HFrEF [hazard ratio (HR) 2.00 per 1 standard deviation increase, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.81-2.20] than of HFmrEF (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.20-1.90, P = 0.01 for difference), and did not differ in their association with incident HFmrEF and HFpEF (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.41-1.73, P = 0.68 for difference). All-cause mortality following the onset of HFmrEF was worse than that of HFpEF (50 vs. 39 events per 1000 person-years, P = 0.02), but comparable to that of HFrEF (46 events per 1000 person-years, P = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: We found overlap in predictors of incident HFmrEF with other HF subtypes. In contrast, mortality risk after HFmrEF was worse than HFpEF, and similar to HFrEF.

Association of Cardiovascular Biomarkers With Incident Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction.

Importance: Nearly half of all patients with heart failure have preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) as opposed to reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), yet associations of biomarkers with future heart failure subtype are incompletely understood. Objective: To evaluate the associations of 12 cardiovascular biomarkers with incident HFpEF vs HFrEF among adults from the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study included 4 longitudinal community-based cohorts: the Cardiovascular Health Study (1989-1990; 1992-1993 for supplemental African-American cohort), the Framingham Heart Study (1995-1998), the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2000-2002), and the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study (1997-1998). Each cohort had prospective ascertainment of incident HFpEF and HFrEF. Data analysis was performed from June 25, 2015, to November 9, 2017. Exposures: The following biomarkers were examined: N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide or brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity troponin T or I, C-reactive protein (CRP), urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), renin to aldosterone ratio, D-dimer, fibrinogen, soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity, galectin-3, cystatin C, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1, and interleukin 6. Main Outcomes and Measures: Development of incident HFpEF and incident HFrEF. Results: Among the 22 756 participants in these 4 cohorts (12 087 women and 10 669 men; mean [SD] age, 60 [13] years) in the study, during a median follow-up of 12 years, 633 participants developed incident HFpEF, and 841 developed HFrEF. In models adjusted for clinical risk factors of heart failure, 2 biomarkers were significantly associated with incident HFpEF: UACR (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% CI, 1.20-1.48; P < .001) and natriuretic peptides (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.16-1.40; P < .001), with suggestive associations for high-sensitivity troponin (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.19; P = .008), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.03-1.45; P = .02), and fibrinogen (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03-1.22; P = .01). By contrast, 6 biomarkers were associated with incident HFrEF: natriuretic peptides (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.41-1.68; P < .001), UACR (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11-1.32; P < .001), high-sensitivity troponin (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.29-1.46; P < .001), cystatin C (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.27; P < .001), D-dimer (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.11-1.35; P < .001), and CRP (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.28; P < .001). When directly compared, natriuretic peptides, high-sensitivity troponin, and CRP were more strongly associated with HFrEF compared with HFpEF. Conclusions and Relevance: Biomarkers of renal dysfunction, endothelial dysfunction, and inflammation were associated with incident HFrEF. By contrast, only natriuretic peptides and UACR were associated with HFpEF. These findings highlight the need for future studies focused on identifying novel biomarkers of the risk of HFpEF.

Urinary potassium excretion and risk of cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies on dietary potassium and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) have reported weak-to-modest inverse associations. Long-term prospective studies with multiple 24-h urinary samples for accurate estimation of habitual potassium intake, however, are scarce. OBJECTIVE: We examined the association between urinary potassium excretion and risk of blood pressure-related cardiovascular outcomes. DESIGN: We studied 7795 subjects free of cardiovascular events at baseline in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study, a prospective, observational cohort with oversampling of subjects with albuminuria at baseline. Main cardiovascular outcomes were CVD [including ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and vascular interventions], IHD, stroke, and new-onset heart failure (HF). Potassium excretion was measured in two 24-h urine specimens at the start of the study (1997-1998) and midway through follow-up (2001-2003). RESULTS: Baseline median urinary potassium excretion was 70 mmol/24 h (IQR: 56-84 mmol/24 h). During a median follow-up of 10.5 y (IQR: 9.9-10.8 y), a total of 641 CVD, 465 IHD, 172 stroke, and 265 HF events occurred. After adjustment for age and sex, inverse associations were observed between potassium excretion and risk [HR per each 26-mmol/24-h (1-g/d) increase; 95% CI] of CVD (0.87; 0.78, 0.97) and IHD (0.86; 0.75, 0.97), as well as nonsignificant inverse associations for risk of stroke (0.85; 0.68, 1.06) and HF (0.94; 0.80, 1.10). After further adjustment for body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, education, and urinary sodium and magnesium excretion, urinary potassium excretion was not statistically significantly associated with risk (multivariable-adjusted HR per 1-g/d increment; 95% CI) of CVD (0.96; 0.85, 1.09), IHD (0.90; 0.81, 1.04), stroke (1.09; 0.86, 1.39), or HF (0.99; 0.83, 1.18). No associations were observed between the sodium-to-potassium excretion ratio and risk of CVD, IHD, stroke, or HF. CONCLUSION: In this cohort with oversampling of subjects with albuminuria at baseline, urinary potassium excretion was not independently associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events.

Plasma calcidiol, calcitriol, and parathyroid hormone and risk of new onset heart failure in a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a major problem in the Western world, with increasing prevalence and incidence. Because HF cannot be cured, prevention of HF is of utter importance. Calcidiol, calcitriol, and parathyroid hormone (PTH) have been identified as risk factors for cardiovascular disease. However, their association with new onset HF remains to be established. We investigated whether calcidiol, calcitriol, and PTH could be used to identify those subjects at risk for new onset HF, and if they had additive predictive value over established risk predictors like N-terminal-pro Brain-type natriuretic peptide and highly sensitive Troponin-T. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined 7470 HF-free participants in Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease, a community-based cohort study in Groningen, the Netherlands (latitude 53°N, mean age: 49 years, 48% male). During follow-up time of 12.6 years (interquartile range: 12.3-12.9), 281 participants (4%) developed HF: 181 (66%) HF with reduced and 94 (34%) HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF [left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 40%], and HFpEF [left ventricular ejection fraction ≥ 50%], respectively). Mean (±SD) of calcidiol was 58 (±24) nmol/L, mean calcitriol 145 (±48) pmol/L, and median (interquartile range) PTH was 3.7 (3.0-4.6) pmol/L. Calcidiol levels were univariately associated with new onset HF [hazard ratio (HR) 0.82 (95% CI 0.69-0.96)], but calcitriol levels were not [HR 0.85 (95% CI 0.71-1.03)]. PTH levels kept their predictive value after adjustment for age, sex, and day of blood withdrawal (HR 1.26 [95% CI 1.04-1.53]). However, in our full model this association was lost [HR 1.10 (95% CI 0.92-1.32)]. Calcidiol, calcitriol, and PTH could not differentiate between new onset HFrEF or HFpEF. CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for confounding factors, a single measurement of plasma calcidiol, calcitriol, or PTH was not associated with risk of developing HF. Screening for these markers to identify subjects at risk for new onset HF cannot be advocated.

Serial galectin-3 and future cardiovascular disease in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Lifetime risk for cardiovascular (CV) disease is high but predicting incident events on an individual level remains difficult. Single measurements of galectin-3, a marker of tissue fibrosis, predict mortality and new-onset heart failure (HF). Persistently elevated levels may indicate a clinically silent disease process. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to establish the value of serial galectin-3 measurements to predict CV outcomes in the general population. METHODS: Plasma galectin-3 was measured in the Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) study at baseline and after ∼4 years. Changes in serial galectin-3 were expressed as categorical changes or absolute change from baseline and were related to subsequent outcome. RESULTS: Serial galectin-3 was measured in 5958 subjects (mean age 49±12 years; 49% female). The median duration of follow-up was 8.3 years. Persistently elevated galectin-3 (defined as highest quartile at baseline and highest quartile during visit 2, n=757 subjects) was associated with a higher risk for new-onset HF, CV mortality, all-cause mortality, new-onset atrial fibrillation and CV events, compared with subjects with non-persistently elevated galectin-3. After multivariable adjustments for baseline characteristics, serial galectin-3 remained an independent predictor of new-onset HF (HR 1.85 (1.10-3.13); p=0.02) but not for other outcomes. Serial measurements provided more accurate prognostic value to predict new-onset HF, compared with a single baseline measurement (Harrell's C: 0.72 (0.68-0.75) vs 0.68 (0.65-0.72); p=0.002, respectively) with significant net reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Persistently elevated galectin-3 predicts new-onset HF after adjustment for covariates, and serial measurements provide more accurate prognostic information compared with single determination of galectin-3. This may help to identify individuals who are at risk for incident HF and might provide a measure to monitor interventions.

Predicting Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction: The International Collaboration on Heart Failure Subtypes.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a prevalent and deadly disease, and preventive strategies focused on at-risk individuals are needed. Current HF prediction models have not examined HF subtypes. We sought to develop and validate risk prediction models for HF with preserved and reduced ejection fraction (HFpEF, HFrEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 28,820 participants from 4 community-based cohorts, 982 developed incident HFpEF and 909 HFrEF during a median follow-up of 12 years. Three cohorts were combined, and a 2:1 random split was used for derivation and internal validation, with the fourth cohort as external validation. Models accounted for multiple competing risks (death, other HF subtype, and unclassified HF). The HFpEF-specific model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, antihypertensive treatment, and previous myocardial infarction; it had good discrimination in derivation (c-statistic 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78-0.82) and validation samples (internal: 0.79; 95% CI, 0.77-0.82 and external: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.71-0.80). The HFrEF-specific model additionally included smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, left bundle branch block, and diabetes mellitus; it had good discrimination in derivation (c-statistic 0.82; 95% CI, 0.80-0.84) and validation samples (internal: 0.80; 95% CI, 0.78-0.83 and external: 0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.80). Age was more strongly associated with HFpEF, and male sex, left ventricular hypertrophy, bundle branch block, previous myocardial infarction, and smoking with HFrEF (P value for each comparison ≤0.02). CONCLUSIONS: We describe and validate risk prediction models for HF subtypes and show good discrimination in a large sample. Some risk factors differed between HFpEF and HFrEF, supporting the notion of pathogenetic differences among HF subtypes.

Sex differences in new-onset heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Sex differences in patients with established heart failure have been well described, but much less is known in the development of heart failure. METHODS: We studied sex-specific incidence and risk of new-onset heart failure in 8592 subjects (mean age 49.2 ± 12.7 years; 50.1 % women) of the Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENdstage Disease (PREVEND) study and distinguished reduced and preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF <40 % and HFpEF >50 %). RESULTS: Of 374 cases with incident heart failure, 241 (64.4 %) occurred in men and 133 (35.6 %) in women (median follow-up 12.5 years; 96,550 person-years). Men developed heart failure earlier (7.0 vs. 8.6 years; P < 0.001). Incidence rates per 1,000 person-years in women compared to men were lower for HFrEF (1.2 vs. 3.0 %; P < 0.001), but higher for HFpEF (1.2 vs. 0.7 %; P < 0.001). Women developed HFpEF later in life than HFrEF (75.1 vs. 69.7 years; P = 0.033), while men showed no significant difference (72.2 vs. 69.5 years; P = 0.116). Multivariable competing risks analyses showed that women had lower risk for HFrEF (subhazard ratio = 0.47; 95 % CI 0.29-0.76, P = 0.002) but higher risk for HFpEF (subhazard ratio = 2.16; 95 % CI 1.21-3.83, P = 0.009) than men. Among all risk factors, only atrial fibrillation had a sex-specific predictive value and increased risk specifically for women (P-for interaction = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: In a middle-aged population, men developed heart failure more frequently and at a younger age than women. However, women had higher risk for HFpEF, with atrial fibrillation being a specific female risk factor.

Clinical risk stratification optimizes value of biomarkers to predict new-onset heart failure in a community-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: We aim to identify and quantify the value of biomarkers for incident new-onset heart failure (HF) in a community-based cohort and subgroups based on cardiovascular risk and evaluate the prognostic value of 13 biomarkers for HF with reduced and preserved ejection fraction. METHODS AND RESULTS: Thirteen biomarkers reflecting diverse pathophysiologic domains were examined in 8569 HF-free participants in Prevention of Vascular and Renal Endstage Disease (mean age, 49 years; 50% men). Subjects were categorized in 2 risk groups based on cardiovascular history. Incremental value per biomarker was assessed using Harrell C-indices. One hundred sixty-eight subjects (2.4%) were diagnosed with new-onset HF in the low-risk group (n=6915; Framingham Risk Score, 5.9%) and 206 (12.2%) subjects in the high-risk group (n=1654; Framingham Risk Score, 18.6%). The association of natriuretic peptides, adrenomedullin, endothelin, and galectin-3 with new-onset HF was stronger in the high-risk group (all P<0.05). Troponin-T, high-sensitive C-reactive protein, urinary albumin excretion, and cystatin-C had similar risk for new-onset HF between both risk groups. The best model for new-onset HF included the combination of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin-T, and urinary albumin excretion, increasing model accuracy to 0.81 (9.5%, P<0.001) in the high-risk group. Except for a modest effect of cystatin-C, no biomarker was associated with increased risk for HF with preserved ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS: Risk stratification increases the incremental value per biomarker to predict new-onset HF, especially HF with reduced ejection fraction. We suggest that routine biomarker testing should be limited to the use of natriuretic peptides and troponin-T in patients with increased cardiovascular risk.