A randomized-controlled trial of a patient-centred intervention in high-risk discharged older patients.

BACKGROUND: The risk of early reattendance after discharge has been proposed as a performance indicator for emergency departments (EDs), but is not uniform in all patients. Those individuals at the highest risk of reattendance may benefit from an intense intervention to reduce this risk, and our objective was to test this hypothesis in a clinical trial. METHODS: A randomized-controlled trial was conducted in the EDs of two hospitals. Very high-risk adults aged 65 years and older, identified using a validated risk-prediction nomogram and being discharged from ED, were randomized to receive a postdischarge patient-centred intervention or standard care. The intervention focused on identifying and supporting patients to address risk factors for future hospital presentation. The primary outcome measure was any unplanned ED reattendance within 28 days. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year hospital usage, institutionalization and death. RESULTS: We enrolled 164 patients, 82 in each study arm. There was an 8% absolute (95% confidence interval: -7%-20%) and a 20% relative risk reduction for an intervention patient making an unplanned ED reattendance within 28 days. This difference was not statistically significant (P=0.26). CONCLUSION: This postdischarge intervention was associated with only small and nonsignificant reductions in ED reattendance.

Use of a risk nomogram to predict emergency department reattendance in older people after discharge: a validation study.

In older people, revisit to the emergency department (ED) in the short period after discharge is not entirely avoidable, but in a proportion of cases is preventable, and should ideally be minimised. We have previously derived a risk probability nomogram to predict the likelihood of revisit. In this study, we sought to validate the nomogram for use as a general risk stratification tool for use in older people being discharged from ED. We conducted a prospective cohort study, applying the nomogram to consecutive community dwelling discharged patients aged 65 and over. Patients were followed up at 28 days post-discharge to determine whether there had been any unplanned ED revisit in that period. We cross tabulated predicted risk versus revisit rates. In 1143 study subjects, we find the odds of revisit increases progressively with increasing strata of predicted risk, culminating in an OR of 9.7 (95% CI 4.7-19.9) in the highest risk group. The 28-day revisit rates across strata range from 16% through 65%, with the difference between strata being statistically highly significant (p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve is 0.65. We conclude that the risk nomogram can classify older people discharged from ED into risk strata, and has modest overall predictive value.