Informing Nature-based Climate Solutions for the United States with the best-available science.

Nature-based Climate Solutions (NbCS) are managed alterations to ecosystems designed to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While they have growing public and private support, the realizable benefits and unintended consequences of NbCS are not well understood. At regional scales where policy decisions are often made, NbCS benefits are estimated from soil and tree survey data that can miss important carbon sources and sinks within an ecosystem, and do not reveal the biophysical impacts of NbCS for local water and energy cycles. The only direct observations of ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes, for example, by eddy covariance flux towers, have not yet been systematically assessed for what they can tell us about NbCS potentials, and state-of-the-art remote sensing products and land-surface models are not yet being widely used to inform NbCS policymaking or implementation. As a result, there is a critical mismatch between the point- and tree-scale data most often used to assess NbCS benefits and impacts, the ecosystem and landscape scales where NbCS projects are implemented, and the regional to continental scales most relevant to policymaking. Here, we propose a research agenda to confront these gaps using data and tools that have long been used to understand the mechanisms driving ecosystem carbon and energy cycling, but have not yet been widely applied to NbCS. We outline steps for creating robust NbCS assessments at both local to regional scales that are informed by ecosystem-scale observations, and which consider concurrent biophysical impacts, future climate feedbacks, and the need for equitable and inclusive NbCS implementation strategies. We contend that these research goals can largely be accomplished by shifting the scales at which pre-existing tools are applied and blended together, although we also highlight some opportunities for more radical shifts in approach.

Leaf heat tolerance of 147 tropical forest species varies with elevation and leaf functional traits, but not with phylogeny.

Exceeding thermal thresholds causes irreversible damage and ultimately loss of leaves. The lowland tropics are among the warmest forested biomes, but little is known about heat tolerance of tropical forest plants. We surveyed leaf heat tolerance of sun-exposed leaves from 147 tropical lowland and pre-montane forest species by determining the temperatures at which potential photosystem II efficiency based on chlorophyll a fluorescence started to decrease (TCrit ) and had decreased by 50% (T50 ). TCrit averaged 46.7°C (5th-95th percentile: 43.5°C-49.7°C) and T50 averaged 49.9°C (47.8°C-52.5°C). Heat tolerance partially adjusted to site temperature; TCrit and T50 decreased with elevation by 0.40°C and 0.26°C per 100 m, respectively, while mean annual temperature decreased by 0.63°C per 100 m. The phylogenetic signal in heat tolerance was weak, suggesting that heat tolerance is more strongly controlled by environment than by evolutionary legacies. TCrit increased with the estimated thermal time constant of the leaves, indicating that species with thermally buffered leaves maintain higher heat tolerance. Among lowland species, T50 increased with leaf mass per area, suggesting that in species with structurally more costly leaves the risk of leaf loss during hot spells is reduced. These results provide insight in variation in heat tolerance at local and regional scales.