A Dynamic Visualization Tool of Local Trends in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality in the United States.

Efforts in the US to prevent and treat cardiovascular disease (CVD) contributed to large decreases in death rates for decades; however, in the last decade, progress has stalled, and in many counties, CVD death rates have increased. Because of these increases, there is heightened urgency to disseminate high-quality data on the temporal trends in CVD mortality. The Local Trends in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality Dashboard is an online, interactive visualization of US county-level death rates and trends for several CVD outcomes across stratifications of age, race and ethnicity, and sex. This powerful visualization tool generates national maps of death rates and trends, state maps of death rates and trends, county-level line plots of annual death rates, and bar charts of percentage changes. County-level death rates and trends were estimated by applying a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to data obtained from the National Vital Statistics System of the National Center for Health Statistics and US Census bridged-race intercensal estimates for the years 1999 through 2019. The Local Trends in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality Dashboard makes it easy for public health practitioners, health care providers, and community leaders to monitor county-level spatiotemporal trends in CVD mortality by age group, race and ethnicity, and sex and provides key information for identifying and addressing local health inequities in CVD mortality trends.

Unequal Local Progress Towards Healthy People 2020 Objectives for Stroke and Coronary Heart Disease Mortality.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Healthy People establishes objectives to monitor the nation's health. Healthy People 2020 included objectives to reduce national stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality by 20% (to 34.8 and 103.4 deaths per 100 000, respectively). Documenting the proportion and geographic distribution of counties meeting neither the Healthy People 2020 target nor an equivalent proportional reduction can help identify high-priority geographic areas for future intervention. METHODS: County-level mortality data for stroke (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes I60-I69) and CHD (I20-I25) and bridged-race population estimates were used. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated age-standardized county-level death rates in 2007 and 2017 which were used to calculate and map the proportion and 95% credible interval of counties achieving neither the national Healthy People 2020 target nor a 20% reduction in mortality. RESULTS: In 2017, 45.8% of counties (credible interval, 42.9-48.3) met neither metric for stroke mortality. These counties had a median stroke death rate of 42.2 deaths per 100 000 in 2017, representing a median 12.8% decline. For CHD mortality, 26.1% (credible interval, 25.0-27.8) of counties met neither metric. These counties had a median CHD death rate of 127.1 deaths per 100 000 in 2017, representing a 10.2% decline. For both outcomes, counties achieving neither metric were not limited to counties with traditionally high stroke and CHD death rates. CONCLUSIONS: Recent declines in stroke and CHD mortality have not been equal across US counties. Focusing solely on high mortality counties may miss opportunities in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease and in learning more about factors leading to successful reductions in mortality.

Stagnating National Declines in Stroke Mortality Mask Widespread County-Level Increases, 2010-2016.

Background and Purpose- Recent national and state-level trends show a stalling or reversal of previously declining stroke death rates. These national trends may mask local geographic variation and changes in stroke mortality. We assessed county-level trends in stroke mortality among adults aged 35 to 64 and ≥65 years. Methods- We used data from National Vital Statistics Systems and a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model to estimate age-standardized annual stroke death rates for 2010 through 2016 among middle-aged adults (35-64 years) and older adults (≥65 years) in US counties. We used log-linear regression models to estimate average annual and total percent change in stroke mortality during the period. Results- Nationally, the annual percent change in stroke mortality from 2010 to 2016 was -0.7% (95% CI, -4.2% to 3.0%) among middle-aged adults and -3.5% (95% CI, -10.7% to 4.3%) among older adults, resulting in 2016 rates of 15.0 per 100 000 and 259.8 per 100 000, respectively. Increasing county-level stroke mortality was more prevalent among middle-aged adults (56.6% of counties) compared with among older adults (26.1% of counties). About half (48.3%) of middle-aged adults, representing 60.2 million individuals, lived in counties in which stroke mortality increased. Conclusions- County-level increases in stroke mortality clarify previously reported national and state-level trends, particularly among middle-aged adults. Roughly 3×as many counties experienced increases in stroke death rates for middle-aged adults compared with older adults. This highlights a need to address stroke prevention and treatment for middle-aged adults while continuing efforts to reduce stroke mortality among the more highly burdened older adults. Efforts to reverse these troubling local trends will likely require joint public health and clinical efforts to develop innovative and integrated approaches for stroke prevention and care, with a focus on community-level characteristics that support stroke-free living for all.

The Rate Stabilizing Tool: Generating Stable Local-Level Measures of Chronic Disease.

Accurate and precise estimates of local-level epidemiologic measures are critical to informing policy and program decisions, but they often require advanced statistical knowledge, programming/coding skills, and extensive computing power. In response, we developed the Rate Stabilizing Tool (RST), an ArcGIS-based tool that enables users to input their own record-level data to generate more reliable age-standardized measures of chronic disease (eg, prevalence rates, mortality rates) or other population health outcomes at the county or census tract levels. The RST uses 2 forms of empirical Bayesian modeling (nonspatial and spatial) to estimate age-standardized rates and 95% credible intervals for user-specified geographic units. The RST also provides indicators of the reliability of point estimates. In addition to reviewing the RST's statistical techniques, we present results from a simulation study that illustrates the key benefit of smoothing. We demonstrate the dramatic reduction in root mean-squared error (rMSE), indicating a better compromise between accuracy and stability for both smoothing approaches relative to the unsmoothed estimates. Finally, we provide an example of the RST's use. This example uses heart disease mortality data for North Carolina census tracts to map the RST output, including reliability of estimates, and demonstrates a subsequent statistical test.

Changes in the Geographic Patterns of Heart Disease Mortality in the United States: 1973 to 2010.

BACKGROUND: Although many studies have documented the dramatic declines in heart disease mortality in the United States at the national level, little attention has been given to the temporal changes in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Age-adjusted and spatially smoothed county-level heart disease death rates were calculated for 2-year intervals from 1973 to 1974 to 2009 to 2010 for those aged ≥35 years. Heart disease deaths were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases codes for diseases of the heart in the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases. A fully Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to produce precise rate estimates, even in counties with small populations. A substantial shift in the concentration of high-rate counties from the Northeast to the Deep South was observed, along with a concentration of slow-decline counties in the South and a nearly 2-fold increase in the geographic inequality among counties. CONCLUSIONS: The dramatic change in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality during 40 years highlights the importance of small-area surveillance to reveal patterns that are hidden at the national level, gives communities the historical context for understanding their current burden of heart disease, and provides important clues for understanding the determinants of the geographic disparities in heart disease mortality.

Geographic Variations in Incremental Costs of Heart Disease Among Medicare Beneficiaries, by Type of Service, 2012.

Using 2012 data on fee-for-service Medicare claims, we documented regional and county variation in incremental standardized costs of heart disease (ie, comparing costs between beneficiaries with heart disease and beneficiaries without heart disease) by type of service (eg, inpatient, outpatient, post-acute care). Absolute incremental total costs varied by region. Although the largest absolute incremental total costs of heart disease were concentrated in southern and Appalachian counties, geographic patterns of costs varied by type of service. These data can be used to inform development of policies and payment models that address the observed geographic disparities.

Decomposing Black-White Disparities in Heart Disease Mortality in the United States, 1973-2010: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Against the backdrop of late 20th century declines in heart disease mortality in the United States, race-specific rates diverged because of slower declines among blacks compared with whites. To characterize the temporal dynamics of emerging black-white racial disparities in heart disease mortality, we decomposed race-sex-specific trends in an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of US mortality data for all diseases of the heart among adults aged ≥35 years from 1973 to 2010. The black-white gap was largest among adults aged 35-59 years (rate ratios ranged from 1.2 to 2.7 for men and from 2.3 to 4.0 for women) and widened with successive birth cohorts, particularly for men. APC model estimates suggested strong independent trends across generations ("cohort effects") but only modest period changes. Among men, cohort-specific black-white racial differences emerged in the 1920-1960 birth cohorts. The apparent strength of the cohort trends raises questions about life-course inequalities in the social and health environments experienced by blacks and whites which could have affected their biomedical and behavioral risk factors for heart disease. The APC results suggest that the genesis of racial disparities is neither static nor restricted to a single time scale such as age or period, and they support the importance of equity in life-course exposures for reducing racial disparities in heart disease.

Metropolitan racial residential segregation and cardiovascular mortality: exploring pathways.

Racial residential segregation has been associated with an increased risk for heart disease and stroke deaths. However, there has been little research into the role that candidate mediating pathways may play in the relationship between segregation and heart disease or stroke deaths. In this study, we examined the relationship between metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level segregation and heart disease and stroke mortality rates, by age and race, and also estimated the effects of various educational, economic, social, and health-care indicators (which we refer to as pathways) on this relationship. We used Poisson mixed models to assess the relationship between the isolation index in 265 U.S. MSAs and county-level (heart disease, stroke) mortality rates. All models were stratified by race (non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white), age group (35-64 years, ≥ 65 years), and cause of death (heart disease, stroke). We included each potential pathway in the model separately to evaluate its effect on the segregation-mortality association. Among blacks, segregation was positively associated with heart disease mortality rates in both age groups but only with stroke mortality rates in the older age group. Among whites, segregation was marginally associated with heart disease mortality rates in the younger age group and was positively associated with heart disease mortality rates in the older age group. Three of the potential pathways we explored attenuated relationships between segregation and mortality rates among both blacks and whites: percentage of female-headed households, percentage of residents living in poverty, and median household income. Because the percentage of female-headed households can be seen as a proxy for the extent of social disorganization, our finding that it has the greatest attenuating effect on the relationship between racial segregation and heart disease and stroke mortality rates suggests that social disorganization may play a strong role in the elevated rates of heart disease and stroke found in racially segregated metropolitan areas.

County-Level Cardiac Rehabilitation and Broadband Availability: Opportunities for Hybrid Care in the United States.

PURPOSE: Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) improves patient outcomes and quality of life and can be provided virtually through hybrid CR. However, little is known about CR availability in conjunction with broadband access, a requirement for hybrid CR. This study examined the intersection of CR and broadband availability at the county level, nationwide. METHODS: Data were gathered and analyzed in 2022 from the 2019 American Community Survey, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and the Federal Communications Commission. Spatially adaptive floating catchments were used to calculate county-level percent CR availability among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. Counties were categorized: by CR availability, whether lowest (ie, CR deserts), medium, or highest; and by broadband availability, whether CR deserts with majority-available broadband, or dual deserts. Results were stratified by state. County-level characteristics were examined for statistical significance by CR availability category. RESULTS: Almost half of US adults (n = 116 325 976, 47.2%) lived in CR desert counties (1691 counties). Among adults in CR desert counties, 96.8% were in CR deserts with majority-available broadband (112 626 906). By state, the percentage of the adult population living in CR desert counties ranged from 3.2% (New Hampshire) to 100% (Hawaii and Washington, DC). Statistically significant differences in county CR availability existed by race/ethnicity, education, and income. CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of US adults live in CR deserts. Given that up to 97% of adults living in CR deserts may have broadband access, implementation of hybrid CR programs that include a telehealth component could expand CR availability to as many as 113 million US adults.

Tracking stroke hospitalization clusters over time and associations with county-level socioeconomic and healthcare characteristics.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study evaluated clustering of stroke hospitalization rates, patterns of the clustering over time, and associations with community-level characteristics. METHODS: We used Medicare hospital claims data from 1995-1996 to 2005-2006 with a principal discharge diagnosis of stroke to calculate county-level stroke hospitalization rates. We identified statistically significant clusters of high- and low-rate counties by using local indicators of spatial association, tracked cluster status over time, and assessed associations between cluster status and county-level socioeconomic and healthcare profiles. RESULTS: Clearly defined clusters of counties with high- and low-stroke hospitalization rates were identified in each time. Approximately 75% of counties maintained their cluster status from 1995-1996 to 2005-2006. In addition, 243 counties transitioned into high-rate clusters, and 148 transitioned out of high-rate clusters. Persistently high-rate clusters were located primarily in the Southeast, whereas persistently low-rate clusters occurred mostly in New England and in the West. In general, persistently low-rate counties had the most favorable socioeconomic and healthcare profiles, followed by counties that transitioned out of or into high-rate clusters. Persistently high-rate counties experienced the least favorable socioeconomic and healthcare profiles. CONCLUSIONS: The persistence of clusters of high- and low-stroke hospitalization rates during a 10-year period suggests that the underlying causes of stroke in these areas have also persisted. The associations found between cluster status (persistently high, transitional, persistently low) and socioeconomic and healthcare profiles shed new light on the contributions of community-level characteristics to geographic disparities in stroke hospitalizations.

Putting chronic disease on the map: building GIS capacity in state and local health departments.

Techniques based on geographic information systems (GIS) have been widely adopted and applied in the fields of infectious disease and environmental epidemiology; their use in chronic disease programs is relatively new. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention is collaborating with the National Association of Chronic Disease Directors and the University of Michigan to provide health departments with capacity to integrate GIS into daily operations, which support priorities for surveillance and prevention of chronic diseases. So far, 19 state and 7 local health departments participated in this project. On the basis of these participants' experiences, we describe our training strategy and identify high-impact GIS skills that can be mastered and applied over a short time in support of chronic disease surveillance. We also describe the web-based resources in the Chronic Disease GIS Exchange that were produced on the basis of this training and are available to anyone interested in GIS and chronic disease (www.cdc.gov/DHDSP/maps/GISX). GIS offers diverse sets of tools that promise increased productivity for chronic disease staff of state and local health departments.

The where of when: Geographic variation in the timing of recent increases in US county-level heart disease death rates.

PURPOSE: Within the context of local increases in US heart disease death rates, we estimated when increasing heart disease death rates began by county among adults aged 35-64 years and characterized geographic variation. METHODS: We applied Bayesian spatiotemporal models to vital statistics data to estimate the timing (i.e., the year) of increasing county-level heart disease death rates during 1999-2019 among adults aged 35-64 years. To examine geographic variation, we stratified results by US Census region and urban-rural classification. RESULTS: The onset of increasing heart disease death rates among adults aged 35-64 years spanned the two-decade study period from 1999 to 2019. Overall, 43.5% (95% CI: 41.3, 45.6) of counties began increasing before 2011, with early increases more prevalent outside of the most urban counties and outside of the Northeast. Roughly one-in-five (18.4% [95% CI: 15.6, 20.7]) counties continued to decline throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS: This variation suggests that factors associated with these geographic classifications may be critical in establishing the timing of changing trends in heart disease death rates. These results reinforce the importance of spatiotemporal surveillance in the early identification of adverse trends and in informing opportunities for tailored policies and programs.

County-Level Trends in Hypertension-Related Cardiovascular Disease Mortality-United States, 2000 to 2019.

Background Amid stagnating declines in national cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, documenting trends in county-level hypertension-related CVD death rates can help activate local efforts prioritizing hypertension prevention, detection, and control. Methods and Results Using death certificate data from the National Vital Statistics System, Bayesian spatiotemporal models were used to estimate county-level hypertension-related CVD death rates and corresponding trends during 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2019 for adults aged ≥35 years overall and by age group, race or ethnicity, and sex. Among adults aged 35 to 64 years, county-level hypertension-related CVD death rates increased from a median of 23.2 per 100 000 in 2000 to 43.4 per 100 000 in 2019. Among adults aged ≥65 years, county-level hypertension-related CVD death rates increased from a median of 362.1 per 100 000 in 2000 to 430.1 per 100 000 in 2019. Increases were larger and more prevalent among adults aged 35 to 64 years than those aged ≥65 years. More than 75% of counties experienced increasing hypertension-related CVD death rates among patients aged 35 to 64 years during 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2019 (76.2% [95% credible interval, 74.7-78.4] and 86.2% [95% credible interval, 84.6-87.6], respectively), compared with 48.2% (95% credible interval, 47.0-49.7) during 2000 to 2010 and 66.1% (95% credible interval, 64.9-67.1) for patients aged ≥65 years. The highest rates for both age groups were among men and Black populations. All racial and ethnic categories in both age groups experienced widespread county-level increases. Conclusions Large, widespread county-level increases in hypertension-related CVD mortality sound an alarm for intensified clinical and public health actions to improve hypertension prevention, detection, and control and prevent subsequent CVD deaths in counties across the nation.

Spatial clustering of non-transported cardiac decedents: the results of a point pattern analysis and an inquiry into social environmental correlates.

BACKGROUND: People who die from heart disease at home before any attempt at transport has been made may represent missed opportunities for life-saving medical intervention. In this study, we undertook a point-pattern spatial analysis of heart disease deaths occurring before transport in a large metropolitan area to determine whether there was spatial clustering of non-transported decedents and whether there were significant differences between the clusters of non-transported cardiac decedents and the clusters of transported cardiac decedents in terms of average travel distances to nearest hospital and area socioeconomic characteristics. These analyses were adjusted for individual predictors of transport status. METHODS: We obtained transport status from the place of death variable on the death certificate. We geocoded heart disease decedents to residential street addresses using a rigorous, multistep process with 97% success. Our final study population consisted of 11,485 adults aged 25-74 years who resided in a large metropolitan area in west-central Florida and died from heart disease during 1998-2002. We conducted a kernel density analysis to identify clusters of the residential locations of cardiac decedents where there was a statistically significant excess probability of being either transported or not transported prior to death; we controlled for individual-level covariates using logistic regression-derived probability estimates. RESULTS: The majority of heart disease decedents were married (53.4%), male (66.4%), white (85.6%), and aged 65-74 years at the time of death (54.7%), and a slight majority were transported prior to death (57.7%). After adjustment for individual predictors, 21 geographic clusters of non-transported heart disease decedents were observed. Contrary to our hypothesis, clusters of non-transported decedents were slightly closer to hospitals than clusters of transported decedents. The social environmental characteristics of clusters varied in the expected direction, with lower socioeconomic and household resources in the clusters of non-transported heart disease deaths. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that in this large metropolitan area unfavorable household and neighborhood resources played a larger role than distance to hospital with regard to transport status of cardiac patients; more research is needed in different geographic areas of the United States and in other industrialized nations.

Racial residential segregation and stroke mortality in Atlanta.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between neighborhood-level racial residential segregation and stroke mortality using a spatially derived segregation index. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study SETTING: Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area METHODS: The study population consisted of non-Hispanic Black and White residents of the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area during the time period Jan 1, 2000 to December 31, 2006. Census tract-level stroke death rates for Blacks and Whites were modeled as a function of the segregation index while controlling for two neighborhood-level chronic stressors (poverty, low education). RESULTS: Racial segregation was positively associated with stroke mortality for both Blacks and Whites aged 35-64 years. Among Blacks and Whites aged 65 or older, segregation was negatively associated with stroke mortality after controlling for the two stressors, suggesting that they were pathways between segregation and stroke death rates. CONCLUSION: Future studies are needed to identify additional pathways between residential segregation and other health outcomes, and to collect data that support a life course approach to understanding the impact of residential segregation on health.