Leveraging a natural murine meiotic drive to suppress invasive populations.

Invasive rodents are a major cause of environmental damage and biodiversity loss, particularly on islands. Unlike insects, genetic biocontrol strategies including population-suppressing gene drives with biased inheritance have not been developed in mice. Here, we demonstrate a gene drive strategy (tCRISPR) that leverages super-Mendelian transmission of the t haplotype to spread inactivating mutations in a haplosufficient female fertility gene (Prl). Using spatially explicit individual-based in silico modeling, we show that tCRISPR can eradicate island populations under a range of realistic field-based parameter values. We also engineer transgenic tCRISPR mice that, crucially, exhibit biased transmission of the modified t haplotype and Prl mutations at levels our modeling predicts would be sufficient for eradication. This is an example of a feasible gene drive system for invasive alien rodent population control.

Regional invasion history and land use shape the prevalence of non-native species in local assemblages.

The ecological impact of non-native species arises from their establishment in local assemblages. However, the rates of non-native spread in new regions and their determinants have not been comprehensively studied. Here, we combined global databases documenting the occurrence of non-native species and residence of non-native birds, mammals, and vascular plants at regional and local scales to describe how the likelihood of non-native occurrence and their proportion in local assemblages relate with their residence time and levels of human usage in different ecosystems. Our findings reveal that local non-native occurrence generally increases with residence time. Colonization is most rapid in croplands and urban areas, while it is slower and variable in natural or semi-natural ecosystems. Notably, non-native occurrence continues to rise even 200 years after introduction, especially for birds and vascular plants, and in other land-use types rather than croplands and urban areas. The impact of residence time on non-native proportions is significant only for mammals. We conclude that the continental exchange of biotas requires considerable time for effects to manifest at the local scale across taxa and land-use types. The unpredictability of future impacts, implied by the slow spread of non-native species, strengthens the call for stronger regulations on the exchange of non-native species to reduce the long-lasting invasion debt looming on ecosystems' future.

Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide.

The ever-increasing and expanding globalisation of trade and transport underpins the escalating global problem of biological invasions. Developing biosecurity infrastructures is crucial to anticipate and prevent the transport and introduction of invasive alien species. Still, robust and defensible forecasts of potential invaders are rare, especially for species without known invasion history. Here, we aim to support decision-making by developing a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes (i.e., generalising typical attributes of invasive alien species). We implemented a workflow based on 'Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation' to estimate invasion syndromes from imputed datasets of species' life-history and ecological traits and macroecological patterns. Importantly, our models disentangle the factors explaining (i) transport and introduction and (ii) establishment. We showcase our tool by modelling the invasion syndromes of 466 amphibians and reptile species with invasion history. Then, we project these models to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (16,236 species [c.76% global coverage]) to identify species with a risk of being unintentionally transported and introduced, and risk of establishing alien populations. Our invasion syndrome models showed high predictive accuracy with a good balance between specificity and generality. Unintentionally transported and introduced species tend to be common and thrive well in human-disturbed habitats. In contrast, those with established alien populations tend to be large-sized, are habitat generalists, thrive well in human-disturbed habitats, and have large native geographic ranges. We forecast that 160 amphibians and reptiles without known invasion history could be unintentionally transported and introduced in the future. Among them, 57 species have a high risk of establishing alien populations. Our reliable, reproducible, transferable, statistically robust and scientifically defensible quantitative invasion risk assessment tool is a significant new addition to the suite of decision-support tools needed for developing a future-proof preventative biosecurity globally.

Scale of unregulated international trade in Australian reptiles and amphibians.

Reptiles and amphibians are popular in the exotic pet trade, where Australian species are valued for their rarity and uniqueness. Despite a near-complete ban on the export of Australian wildlife, smuggling and subsequent international trade frequently occur in an unregulated and unmonitored manner. In 2022, Australia listed over 100 squamates in Appendix III of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) to better monitor this trade. We investigated current trade and assessed the value of this Australian CITES listing using web-scraping methods to monitor the online pet trade in Australian reptiles and amphibians, with additional data from published papers, trade databases, and seizure records. Despite the export ban, we identified 170 endemic herpetofauna (reptile and amphibian) species in international trade, 33 of which were not recorded previously in the international market, including 6 newly recorded genera. Ninety-two traded species were included in CITES appendices (59 added in 2022), but at least 78 other traded species remained unregulated. Among these, 5 of the 10 traded threatened species were unlisted, and we recommend they be considered for inclusion in CITES Appendix III. We also recommend the listing of all Diplodactylidae genera in Appendix III. Despite this family representing the greatest number of Australian species in trade, only one genus (of 7 traded) was included in the recent CITES amendments. Overall, a large number of Australian reptile and amphibian species are traded internationally and, although we acknowledge the value of Australia's recent CITES listing, we recommend the consideration of other taxa for similar inclusion in CITES.

Escala del mercado internacional no regulado de reptiles y anfibios australianos Resumen Los reptiles y anfibios son populares en el comercio de mascotas exóticas, en el que las especies australianas son valoradas por su rareza y singularidad. A pesar de la prohibición casi total de la exportación de fauna silvestre australiana, el contrabando y el comercio internacional posterior se producen con frecuencia de forma no regulada y no supervisada. En 2022, Australia incluyó más de 100 escamosos en el apéndice III de la Convención sobre el Comercio Internacional de Especies Amenazadas de Fauna y Flora Silvestres (CITES) para controlar mejor este comercio. Investigamos el comercio actual y evaluamos el valor de esta inclusión en CITES con métodos de raspado web para monitorear el comercio virtual de reptiles y anfibios australianos como mascotas, con datos adicionales de artículos publicados, bases de datos comerciales y registros de incautaciones. A pesar de la prohibición de las exportaciones, identificamos 170 especies endémicas de herpetofauna (reptiles y anfibios) en el comercio internacional, 33 de las cuales no se habían registrado previamente en el mercado internacional, incluidos 6 géneros registrados recientemente. Noventa y dos especies comercializadas se incluyeron en los apéndices de CITES (59 añadidas en 2022), pero al menos otras 78 especies comercializadas permanecieron sin regular. Entre ellas, cinco de las diez especies amenazadas comercializadas no estaban incluidas y recomendamos que se considere su inclusión en el apéndice III de CITES. También recomendamos la inclusión de todos los géneros de Diplodactylidae en el apéndice III. A pesar de que esta familia representa el mayor número de especies australianas en el comercio, sólo un género (de 7 comercializados) fue incluido en las recientes enmiendas de CITES. En general, un gran número de especies de reptiles y anfibios australianos son objeto de comercio internacional y, aunque reconocemos el valor de la reciente inclusión de Australia en CITES, recomendamos que se consideren otros taxones para su similar inclusión.

Concurrent invasions of European starlings in Australia and North America reveal population-specific differentiation in shared genomic regions.

A species' success during the invasion of new areas hinges on an interplay between the demographic processes common to invasions and the specific ecological context of the novel environment. Evolutionary genetic studies of invasive species can investigate how genetic bottlenecks and ecological conditions shape genetic variation in invasions, and our study pairs two invasive populations that are hypothesized to be from the same source population to compare how each population evolved during and after introduction. Invasive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) established populations in both Australia and North America in the 19th century. Here, we compare whole-genome sequences among native and independently introduced European starling populations to determine how demographic processes interact with rapid evolution to generate similar genetic patterns in these recent and replicated invasions. Demographic models indicate that both invasive populations experienced genetic bottlenecks as expected based on invasion history, and we find that specific genomic regions have differentiated even on this short evolutionary timescale. Despite genetic bottlenecks, we suggest that genetic drift alone cannot explain differentiation in at least two of these regions. The demographic boom intrinsic to many invasions as well as potential inversions may have led to high population-specific differentiation, although the patterns of genetic variation are also consistent with the hypothesis that this infamous and highly mobile invader adapted to novel selection (e.g., extrinsic factors). We use targeted sampling of replicated invasions to identify and evaluate support for multiple, interacting evolutionary mechanisms that lead to differentiation during the invasion process.

Environment and shipping drive environmental DNA beta-diversity among commercial ports.

The spread of nonindigenous species by shipping is a large and growing global problem that harms coastal ecosystems and economies and may blur coastal biogeographical patterns. This study coupled eukaryotic environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding with dissimilarity regression to test the hypothesis that ship-borne species spread homogenizes port communities. We first collected and metabarcoded water samples from ports in Europe, Asia, Australia and the Americas. We then calculated community dissimilarities between port pairs and tested for effects of environmental dissimilarity, biogeographical region and four alternative measures of ship-borne species transport risk. We predicted that higher shipping between ports would decrease community dissimilarity, that the effect of shipping would be small compared to that of environment dissimilarity and shared biogeography, and that more complex shipping risk metrics (which account for ballast water and stepping-stone spread) would perform better. Consistent with our hypotheses, community dissimilarities increased significantly with environmental dissimilarity and, to a lesser extent, decreased with ship-borne species transport risks, particularly if the ports had similar environments and stepping-stone risks were considered. Unexpectedly, we found no clear effect of shared biogeography, and that risk metrics incorporating estimates of ballast discharge did not offer more explanatory power than simpler traffic-based risks. Overall, we found that shipping homogenizes eukaryotic communities between ports in predictable ways, which could inform improvements in invasive species policy and management. We demonstrated the usefulness of eDNA metabarcoding and dissimilarity regression for disentangling the drivers of large-scale biodiversity patterns. We conclude by outlining logistical considerations and recommendations for future studies using this approach.

Gene drives for vertebrate pest control: Realistic spatial modelling of eradication probabilities and times for island mouse populations.

Invasive alien species continue to threaten global biodiversity. CRISPR-based gene drives, which can theoretically spread through populations despite imparting a fitness cost, could be used to suppress or eradicate pest populations. We develop an individual-based, spatially explicit, stochastic model to simulate the ability of CRISPR-based homing and X chromosome shredding drives to eradicate populations of invasive house mice (Mus muculus) from islands. Using the model, we explore the interactive effect of the efficiency of the drive constructs and the spatial ecology of the target population on the outcome of a gene-drive release. We also consider the impact of polyandrous mating and sperm competition, which could compromise the efficacy of some gene-drive strategies. Our results show that both drive strategies could be used to eradicate large populations of mice. Whereas parameters related to drive efficiency and demography strongly influence drive performance, we find that sperm competition following polyandrous mating is unlikely to impact the outcome of an eradication effort substantially. Assumptions regarding the spatial ecology of mice influenced the probability of and time required for eradication, with short-range dispersal capacities and limited mate-search areas producing 'chase' dynamics across the island characterized by cycles of local extinction and recolonization by mice. We also show that highly efficient drives are not always optimal, when dispersal and mate-search capabilities are low. Rapid local population suppression around the introduction sites can cause loss of the gene drive before it can spread to the entire island. We conclude that, although the design of efficient gene drives is undoubtedly critical, accurate data on the spatial ecology of target species are critical for predicting the result of a gene-drive release.

The U.S. market for imported wildlife not listed in the CITES multilateral treaty.

The international wildlife trade presents severe conservation and environmental security risks, yet no international regulatory framework exists to monitor the trade of species not listed in the appendices of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). We explored the composition and dynamics of internationally regulated versus nonregulated trade, with a focus on importations of wild-caught terrestrial vertebrates entering the United States from 2009 to 2018. We used 10 years of species-level trade records of the numbers of live, wild-caught animals imported to the United States and data on International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) estimates of extinction risk to determine whether there were differences in the diversity, abundance, and risk to extinction among imports of CITES-listed versus unlisted species. We found 3.6 times the number of unlisted species in U.S. imports compared with CITES-listed species (1366 vs. 378 species). The CITES-listed species were more likely to face reported conservation threats relative to unlisted species (71.7% vs. 27.5%). However, 376 unlisted species faced conversation threats, 297 species had unknown population trends, and 139 species were without an evaluation by the IUCN. Unlisted species appearing for the first time in records were imported 5.5 times more often relative to CITES-listed species. Unlisted reptiles had the largest rate of entry, averaging 53 unique species appearing in imports for the first time per year. Overall trade quantities were approximately 11 times larger for imports of unlisted species relative to imports of CITES-listed species. Countries that were top exporters of CITES-listed species were mostly different from exporters of unlisted species. Because of the vulnerabilities of unlisted, traded species entering the United States and increasing global demand, we strongly recommend governments adapt their policies to monitor and report on the trade of all wildlife.

El Mercado Estadunidense de Fauna Importada No Enlistada en el Tratado Multilateral CITES Resumen Aunque el mercado internacional de fauna representa un riesgo severo para la conservación y la seguridad ambiental, no existe un marco internacional de regulación para monitorear el mercado de especies que no están en los apéndices de la Convención sobre el Comercio Internacional de Especies Amenazadas de Fauna y Flora Silvestres (CITES). Exploramos la composición y las dinámicas del mercado regulado internacionalmente frente al que no lo está, enfocados en la importación de vertebrados terrestres capturados en vida silvestre que entraron a Estados Unidos entre 2009 y 2018. Usamos el registro de comercio a nivel de especie del número de animales vivos capturados en vida silvestre e importados a Estados Unidos durante diez años y datos de los estimados de extinción de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) para determinar si hay diferencias en la diversidad, abundancia y el riesgo de extinción entre las especies importadas enlistadas o no en CITES. Encontramos 3.6 veces más el número de especies no enlistadas en las importaciones a Estados Unidos en comparación con las especies enlistadas en CITES (1,366 versus 378 especies). Fue más probable que las especies de CITES enfrentaran amenazas de conservación reportadas en relación con las especies no enlistadas (71.7% vs. 27.5%). Sin embargo, 376 especies no enlistadas enfrentaron amenazas de conservación, 297 especies no cuentan con tendencias poblacionales conocidas y 139 especies no estaban evaluadas por la UICN. Las especies no enlistadas que aparecieron por primera vez en los registros fueron importadas 5.5 más veces en relación con las especies en CITES. La mayor tasa de entrada la tuvieron los reptiles no enlistados, con un promedio de 53 especies únicas al año registradas por primera vez en las importaciones. La cantidad generalizada de intercambios fue once veces mayor para la importación de especies no enlistadas en relación con la importación de especies CITES. La mayoría de los principales países exportadores de especies CITES fue diferente a la de los exportadores de especies no enlistadas. Debido a la vulnerabilidad de las especies comerciales no enlistadas que entran a los Estados Unidos y al incremento de la demanda global, recomendamos firmemente que los gobiernos adapten sus políticas para monitorear y reportar el mercado de toda la fauna.

Signatures of selection in a recent invasion reveal adaptive divergence in a highly vagile invasive species.

A detailed understanding of population genetics in invasive populations helps us to identify drivers of successful alien introductions. Here, we investigate putative signals of selection in Australian populations of invasive common starlings, Sturnus vulgaris, and seek to understand how these have been influenced by introduction history. We used reduced representation sequencing to determine population structure, and identify Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) that are putatively under selection. We found that since their introduction into Australia, starling populations have become genetically differentiated despite the potential for high levels of dispersal, and that starlings have responded to selective pressures imposed by a wide range of environmental conditions across their geographic range. Isolation by distance appears to have played a strong role in determining genetic substructure across the starling's Australian range. Analyses of candidate SNPs that are putatively under selection indicated that aridity, precipitation and temperature may be important factors driving adaptive variation across the starling's invasive range in Australia. However, we also noted that the historic introduction regime may leave footprints on sites flagged as being under adaptive selection, and encourage critical interpretation of selection analyses in non-native populations.

Dissecting the null model for biological invasions: A meta-analysis of the propagule pressure effect.

A consistent determinant of the establishment success of alien species appears to be the number of individuals that are introduced to found a population (propagule pressure), yet variation in the form of this relationship has been largely unexplored. Here, we present the first quantitative systematic review of this form, using Bayesian meta-analytical methods. The relationship between propagule pressure and establishment success has been evaluated for a broad range of taxa and life histories, including invertebrates, herbaceous plants and long-lived trees, and terrestrial and aquatic vertebrates. We found a positive mean effect of propagule pressure on establishment success to be a feature of every hypothesis we tested. However, establishment success most critically depended on propagule pressures in the range of 10-100 individuals. Heterogeneity in effect size was associated primarily with different analytical approaches, with some evidence of larger effect sizes in animal rather than plant introductions. Conversely, no variation was accounted for in any analysis by the scale of study (field to global) or methodology (observational, experimental, or proxy) used. Our analyses reveal remarkable consistency in the form of the relationship between propagule pressure and alien population establishment success.

A guide to using the internet to monitor and quantify the wildlife trade.

The unrivaled growth in e-commerce of animals and plants presents an unprecedented opportunity to monitor wildlife trade to inform conservation, biosecurity, and law enforcement. Using the internet to quantify the scale of the wildlife trade (volume and frequency) is a relatively recent and rapidly developing approach that lacks an accessible framework for locating relevant websites and collecting data. We produced an accessible guide for internet-based wildlife trade surveillance. We detailed a repeatable method involving a systematic internet search, with search engines, to locate relevant websites and content. For data collection, we highlight web-scraping technology as an efficient way to collect data in an automated fashion at regularly timed intervals. Our guide is applicable to the multitude of trade-based contexts because researchers can tailor search keywords for specific taxa or derived products and locations of interest. We provide information for working with the diversity of websites used in wildlife trade. For example, to locate relevant content on social media (e.g., posts or groups), each social media platform should be examined individually via the site's internal search engine. A key advantage of using the internet to study wildlife trade is the relative ease of access to an increasing amount of trade-related data. However, not all wildlife trade occurs online and it may occur on unobservable sections of the internet.

Resumen Una Guía para Usar el Internet para Monitorear y Cuantificar el Mercado de Fauna El crecimiento incomparable del comercio en línea de animales y plantas representa una oportunidad sin precedentes para monitorear el mercado de fauna y así orientar a la conservación, la bioseguridad y la aplicación de la ley. El uso del internet para cuantificar la escala del mercado de fauna (volumen y frecuencia) es una estrategia relativamente reciente y de rápido desarrollo que carece de un marco de trabajo accesible para la localización de sitios web relevantes y para la recolección de datos. Realizamos una guía accesible para la vigilancia del mercado de fauna en internet. Detallamos un método repetible que involucra una búsqueda sistemática por internet, por medio de buscadores, para localizar sitios web y contenidos relevantes. Para la recolección de datos, resaltamos la tecnología de web scraping como una manera eficiente de obtener datos de manera automatizada a intervalos regulares de tiempo. Nuestra guía puede aplicarse a la multitud de contextos basados en el mercado porque los investigadores pueden adaptar las palabras de búsqueda a taxones específicos o productos derivados y a localidades de interés. Proporcionamos información para poder trabajar con la diversidad de sitios web que se usan para el mercado de fauna. Por ejemplo, para localizar contenido relevante en las redes sociales (p. ej.: publicaciones o grupos), cada plataforma social debería ser examinada individualmente por medio del buscador interno del sitio. Una ventaja importante de usar el internet para estudiar el mercado de fauna es el acceso relativamente sencillo a una creciente cantidad de datos relacionados con el mercado. Sin embargo, no todo el mercado de fauna ocurre en línea y puede que suceda en secciones inobservables del internet.

Remoteness promotes biological invasions on islands worldwide.

One of the best-known general patterns in island biogeography is the species-isolation relationship (SIR), a decrease in the number of native species with increasing island isolation that is linked to lower rates of natural dispersal and colonization on remote oceanic islands. However, during recent centuries, the anthropogenic introduction of alien species has increasingly gained importance and altered the composition and richness of island species pools. We analyzed a large dataset for alien and native plants, ants, reptiles, mammals, and birds on 257 (sub) tropical islands, and showed that, except for birds, the number of naturalized alien species increases with isolation for all taxa, a pattern that is opposite to the negative SIR of native species. We argue that the reversal of the SIR for alien species is driven by an increase in island invasibility due to reduced diversity and increased ecological naiveté of native biota on the more remote islands.

Adaptive changes in the genomes of wild rabbits after 16 years of viral epidemics.

Since its introduction to control overabundant invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), the highly virulent rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) has caused regular annual disease outbreaks in Australian rabbit populations. Although initially reducing rabbit abundance by 60%, continent-wide, experimental evidence has since indicated increased genetic resistance in wild rabbits that have experienced RHDV-driven selection. To identify genetic adaptations, which explain the increased resistance to this biocontrol virus, we investigated genome-wide SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) allele frequency changes in a South Australian rabbit population that was sampled in 1996 (pre-RHD genomes) and after 16 years of RHDV outbreaks. We identified several SNPs with changed allele frequencies within or close to genes potentially important for increased RHD resistance. The identified genes are known to be involved in virus infections and immune reactions or had previously been identified as being differentially expressed in healthy versus acutely RHDV-infected rabbits. Furthermore, we show in a simulation study that the allele/genotype frequency changes cannot be explained by drift alone and that several candidate genes had also been identified as being associated with surviving RHD in a different Australian rabbit population. Our unique data set allowed us to identify candidate genes for RHDV resistance that have evolved under natural conditions, and over a time span that would not have been feasible in an experimental setting. Moreover, it provides a rare example of host genetic adaptations to virus-driven selection in response to a suddenly emerging infectious disease.

The Global Distribution and Drivers of Alien Bird Species Richness.

Alien species are a major component of human-induced environmental change. Variation in the numbers of alien species found in different areas is likely to depend on a combination of anthropogenic and environmental factors, with anthropogenic factors affecting the number of species introduced to new locations, and when, and environmental factors influencing how many species are able to persist there. However, global spatial and temporal variation in the drivers of alien introduction and species richness remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse an extensive new database of alien birds to explore what determines the global distribution of alien species richness for an entire taxonomic class. We demonstrate that the locations of origin and introduction of alien birds, and their identities, were initially driven largely by European (mainly British) colonialism. However, recent introductions are a wider phenomenon, involving more species and countries, and driven in part by increasing economic activity. We find that, globally, alien bird species richness is currently highest at midlatitudes and is strongly determined by anthropogenic effects, most notably the number of species introduced (i.e., "colonisation pressure"). Nevertheless, environmental drivers are also important, with native and alien species richness being strongly and consistently positively associated. Our results demonstrate that colonisation pressure is key to understanding alien species richness, show that areas of high native species richness are not resistant to colonisation by alien species at the global scale, and emphasise the likely ongoing threats to global environments from introductions of species.

Predicting the Risk of Biological Invasions Using Environmental Similarity and Transport Network Connectedness.

Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the "range bagging" method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high-risk species not previously known to be present in Australia. We determined that, of the insect pest species used for validation, the species most likely to be present in Australia were those also present in geopolitical regions with high transport connectivity to Australia, and those regions that were geographically close, and had similar environments.

High accuracy at low frequency: detailed behavioural classification from accelerometer data.

Accelerometers are a valuable tool for studying animal behaviour and physiology where direct observation is unfeasible. However, giving biological meaning to multivariate acceleration data is challenging. Here, we describe a method that reliably classifies a large number of behaviours using tri-axial accelerometer data collected at the low sampling frequency of 1 Hz, using the dingo (Canis dingo) as an example. We used out-of-sample validation to compare the predictive performance of four commonly used classification models (random forest, k-nearest neighbour, support vector machine, and naïve Bayes). We tested the importance of predictor variable selection and moving window size for the classification of each behaviour and overall model performance. Random forests produced the highest out-of-sample classification accuracy, with our best-performing model predicting 14 behaviours with a mean accuracy of 87%. We also investigated the relationship between overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA) and the activity level of each behaviour, given the increasing use of ODBA in ecophysiology as a proxy for energy expenditure. ODBA values for our four 'high activity' behaviours were significantly greater than all other behaviours, with an overall positive trend between ODBA and intensity of movement. We show that a random forest model of relatively low complexity can mitigate some major challenges associated with establishing meaningful ecological conclusions from acceleration data. Our approach has broad applicability to free-ranging terrestrial quadrupeds of comparable size. Our use of a low sampling frequency shows potential for deploying accelerometers over extended time periods, enabling the capture of invaluable behavioural and physiological data across different ontogenies.

Disentangling synergistic disease dynamics: Implications for the viral biocontrol of rabbits.

European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) have been exposed to rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) and myxoma virus (MYXV) in their native and invasive ranges for decades. Yet, the long-term effects of these viruses on rabbit population dynamics remain poorly understood. In this context, we analysed 17 years of detailed capture-mark-recapture data (2000-2016) from Turretfield, South Australia, using a probabilistic state-space hierarchical modelling framework to estimate rabbit survival and epidemiological dynamics. While RHDV infection and disease-induced death were most prominent during annual epidemics in winter and spring, we found evidence for continuous infection of susceptible individuals with RHDV throughout the year. RHDV-susceptible rabbits had, on average, 25% lower monthly survival rates compared to immune individuals, while the average monthly force of infection in winter and spring was ~38%. These combined to result in an average infection-induced mortality rate of 69% in winter and spring. Individuals susceptible to MYXV and immune to RHDV had similar survival probabilities to those having survived infections from both viruses, whereas individuals susceptible to both RHDV and MYXV had higher survival probabilities than those susceptible to RHDV and immune to MYXV. This suggests that MYXV may reduce the future survival rates of individuals that endure initial MYXV infection. There was no evidence for long-term changes in disease-induced mortality and infection rates for either RHDV or MYXV. We conclude that continuous, year-round virus perpetuation (and perhaps heterogeneity in modes of transmission and infectious doses during and after epidemics) acts to reduce the efficiency of RHDV and MYXV as biocontrol agents of rabbits in their invasive range. However, if virulence can be maintained as relatively constant through time, RHDV and MYXV will likely continue realizing strong benefits as biocontrol agents.

Dodging silver bullets: good CRISPR gene-drive design is critical for eradicating exotic vertebrates.

Self-replicating gene drives that can spread deleterious alleles through animal populations have been promoted as a much needed but controversial 'silver bullet' for controlling invasive alien species. Homing-based drives comprise an endonuclease and a guide RNA (gRNA) that are replicated during meiosis via homologous recombination. However, their efficacy for controlling wild populations is threatened by inherent polymorphic resistance and the creation of resistance alleles via non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ)-mediated DNA repair. We used stochastic individual-based models to identify realistic gene-drive strategies capable of eradicating vertebrate pest populations (mice, rats and rabbits) on islands. One popular strategy, a sex-reversing drive that converts heterozygous females into sterile males, failed to spread and required the ongoing deployment of gene-drive carriers to achieve eradication. Under alternative strategies, multiplexed gRNAs could overcome inherent polymorphic resistance and were required for eradication success even when the probability of NHEJ was low. Strategies causing homozygotic embryonic non-viability or homozygotic female sterility produced high probabilities of eradication and were robust to NHEJ-mediated deletion of the DNA sequence between multiplexed endonuclease recognition sites. The latter two strategies also purged the gene drive when eradication failed, therefore posing lower long-term risk should animals escape beyond target islands. Multiplexing gRNAs will be necessary if this technology is to be useful for insular extirpation attempts; however, precise knowledge of homing rates will be required to design low-risk gene drives with high probabilities of eradication success.

Alien species as a driver of recent extinctions.

We assessed the prevalence of alien species as a driver of recent extinctions in five major taxa (plants, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals), using data from the IUCN Red List. Our results show that alien species are the second most common threat associated with species that have gone completely extinct from these taxa since AD 1500. Aliens are the most common threat associated with extinctions in three of the five taxa analysed, and for vertebrate extinctions overall.