Long-term characterisation of the relationship between change in depression severity and change in inflammatory markers following inflammation-stratified treatment with vortioxetine augmented with celecoxib or placebo.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a highly prevalent condition with a substantial incidence of relapse or treatment resistance. A subset of patients show evidence of low-grade inflammation, with these patients having a higher likelihood of more severe or difficult to treat courses of illness. Anti-inflammatory treatment of MDD has been investigated with mixed results, and no known studies have included assessments beyond cessation of the anti-inflammatory agent, meaning it remains unknown if any benefit from treatment persists. The objective of the present study was to investigate treatment outcomes up to 29 weeks post-cessation of celecoxib or placebo augmentation of an antidepressant, and how concentrations of selected inflammatory markers change over the same period. METHODS: The PREDDICT parallel-group, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (University of Adelaide, Australia) ran from December 2017 to April 2020. Participants with MDD were stratified into normal range or elevated inflammation strata according to screening concentrations of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). Participants were randomised to treatment with vortioxetine and celecoxib or vortioxetine and placebo for six weeks, and vortioxetine alone for an additional 29 weeks (35 total weeks). Following a previous publication of results from the six-week RCT phase, exploratory analyses were performed on Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) scores, response and remission outcomes, and selected peripheral inflammatory markers across the entire study duration up to week 35. RESULTS: Participants retained at each observation were baseline N=119, week 2 N=115, week 4 N=103, week 6 N=104, week 8 N=98, week 22 N=81, and week 35 N=60. Those in the elevated hsCRP celecoxib-augmented group had a statistically significantly greater reduction in MADRS score from baseline to week 35 compared to all other groups, demonstrating the greatest clinical improvement long-term, despite no group or strata differences at preceding time points. Response and remission outcomes did not differ by treatment group or hsCRP strata at any time point. Changes in hsCRP between baseline and week 35 and Tumour Necrosis Factor-α (TNF-α) concentrations between baseline and week 6 and baseline and week 35 were statistically significantly associated with MADRS scores observed at week 6 and week 35 respectively, with reducing TNF-α concentrations associated with reducing MADRS scores and vice versa in each case. A post-hoc stratification of the participant cohort by baseline TNF-α concentrations led to significant prediction by the derived strata on clinical response at weeks 6, 8 and 35, with participants with elevated baseline TNF-α less likely to achieve clinical response. INTERPRETATION: The present analysis suggests for the first time a possible longer-term clinical benefit of celecoxib augmentation of vortioxetine in inflammation-associated MDD treatment. However, further research is needed to confirm the finding and to ascertain the reason for such a delayed effect. Furthermore, the trial suggests that TNF-α may have a stronger relationship with anti-inflammatory MDD treatment outcomes than hsCRP, and should be investigated further for potential predictive utility. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR), ACTRN12617000527369p. Registered on 11 April 2017, http://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?ACTRN=12617000527369p.

The Effects of Dose, Practice Habits, and Objects of Focus on Digital Meditation Effectiveness and Adherence: Longitudinal Study of 280,000 Digital Meditation Sessions Across 103 Countries.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of digital meditation is well established. However, the extent to which the benefits remain after 12 weeks in real-world settings remains unknown. Additionally, findings related to dosage and practice habits have been mixed, and the studies were conducted on small and homogeneous samples and used a limited range of analytical procedures and meditation techniques. Findings related to the predictors of adherence are also lacking and may help inform future meditators and meditation programs on how to best structure healthy sustainable practices. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to measure outcome change across a large and globally diverse population of meditators and meditations in their naturalistic practice environments, assess the dose-response relationships between practice habits and outcome change, and identify predictors of adherence. METHODS: We used ecological momentary assessment to assess participants' well-being over a 14-month period. We engineered outcomes related to the variability of change over time (equanimity) and recovery following a drop in mood (resilience) and established the convergent and divergent validity of these outcomes using a validated scale. Using linear mixed-effects and generalized additive mixed-effects models, we modeled outcome changes and patterns of dose-response across outcomes. We then used logistic regression to study the practice habits of participants in their first 30 sessions to derive odds ratios of long-term adherence. RESULTS: Significant improvements were observed in all outcomes (P<.001). Generalized additive mixed models revealed rapid improvements over the first 50-100 sessions, with further improvements observed until the end of the study period. Outcome change corresponded to 1 extra day of improved mood for every 5 days meditated and half-a-day-faster mood recovery compared with baseline. Overall, consistency of practice was associated with the largest outcome change (4-7 d/wk). No significant differences were observed across session lengths in linear models (mood: P=.19; equanimity: P=.10; resilience: P=.29); however, generalized additive models revealed significant differences over time (P<.001). Longer sessions (21-30 min) were associated with the largest magnitude of change in mood from the 20th session onward and fewer sessions to recovery (increased resilience); midlength sessions (11-20 min) were associated with the largest decreases in recovery; and mood stability was similar across session lengths (equanimity). Completing a greater variety of practice types was associated with significantly greater improvements across all outcomes. Adhering to a long-term practice was best predicted by practice consistency (4-7 d/wk), a morning routine, and maintaining an equal balance between interoceptive and exteroceptive meditations. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term real-world digital meditation practice is effective and associated with improvements in mood, equanimity, and resilience. Practice consistency and variety rather than length best predict improvement. Long-term sustainable practices are best predicted by consistency, a morning routine, and a practice balanced across objects of focus that are internal and external to the body.

Using polygenic scores and clinical data for bipolar disorder patient stratification and lithium response prediction: machine learning approach.

BACKGROUND: Response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is associated with clinical and transdiagnostic genetic factors. The predictive combination of these variables might help clinicians better predict which patients will respond to lithium treatment. AIMS: To use a combination of transdiagnostic genetic and clinical factors to predict lithium response in patients with bipolar disorder. METHOD: This study utilised genetic and clinical data (n = 1034) collected as part of the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen) project. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, and then combined with clinical variables using a cross-validated machine-learning regression approach. Unimodal, multimodal and genetically stratified models were trained and validated using ridge, elastic net and random forest regression on 692 patients with bipolar disorder from ten study sites using leave-site-out cross-validation. All models were then tested on an independent test set of 342 patients. The best performing models were then tested in a classification framework. RESULTS: The best performing linear model explained 5.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response and was composed of clinical variables, PRS variables and interaction terms between them. The best performing non-linear model used only clinical variables and explained 8.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response. A priori genomic stratification improved non-linear model performance to 13.7% (P = 0.0001) and improved the binary classification of lithium response. This model stratified patients based on their meta-polygenic loadings for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia and was then trained using clinical data. CONCLUSIONS: Using PRS to first stratify patients genetically and then train machine-learning models with clinical predictors led to large improvements in lithium response prediction. When used with other PRS and biological markers in the future this approach may help inform which patients are most likely to respond to lithium treatment.

Association of polygenic score for major depression with response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder.

Lithium is a first-line medication for bipolar disorder (BD), but only one in three patients respond optimally to the drug. Since evidence shows a strong clinical and genetic overlap between depression and bipolar disorder, we investigated whether a polygenic susceptibility to major depression is associated with response to lithium treatment in patients with BD. Weighted polygenic scores (PGSs) were computed for major depression (MD) at different GWAS p value thresholds using genetic data obtained from 2586 bipolar patients who received lithium treatment and took part in the Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen) study. Summary statistics from genome-wide association studies in MD (135,458 cases and 344,901 controls) from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) were used for PGS weighting. Response to lithium treatment was defined by continuous scores and categorical outcome (responders versus non-responders) using measurements on the Alda scale. Associations between PGSs of MD and lithium treatment response were assessed using a linear and binary logistic regression modeling for the continuous and categorical outcomes, respectively. The analysis was performed for the entire cohort, and for European and Asian sub-samples. The PGSs for MD were significantly associated with lithium treatment response in multi-ethnic, European or Asian populations, at various p value thresholds. Bipolar patients with a low polygenic load for MD were more likely to respond well to lithium, compared to those patients with high polygenic load [lowest vs highest PGS quartiles, multi-ethnic sample: OR = 1.54 (95% CI: 1.18-2.01) and European sample: OR = 1.75 (95% CI: 1.30-2.36)]. While our analysis in the Asian sample found equivalent effect size in the same direction: OR = 1.71 (95% CI: 0.61-4.90), this was not statistically significant. Using PGS decile comparison, we found a similar trend of association between a high genetic loading for MD and lower response to lithium. Our findings underscore the genetic contribution to lithium response in BD and support the emerging concept of a lithium-responsive biotype in BD.

Suppressed activity of the rostral anterior cingulate cortex as a biomarker for depression remission.

BACKGROUND: Suppression of the rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC) has shown promise as a prognostic biomarker for depression. We aimed to use machine learning to characterise its ability to predict depression remission. METHODS: Data were obtained from 81 15- to 25-year-olds with a major depressive disorder who had participated in the YoDA-C trial, in which they had been randomised to receive cognitive behavioural therapy plus either fluoxetine or placebo. Prior to commencing treatment patients performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) task to assess rACC suppression. Support vector machines were trained on the fMRI data using nested cross-validation, and were similarly trained on clinical data. We further tested our fMRI model on data from the YoDA-A trial, in which participants had completed the same fMRI paradigm. RESULTS: Thirty-six of 81 (44%) participants in the YoDA-C trial achieved remission. Our fMRI model was able to predict remission status (AUC = 0.777 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.638-0.916], balanced accuracy = 67%, negative predictive value = 74%, p < 0.0001). Clinical models failed to predict remission status at better than chance levels. Testing the model on the alternative YoDA-A dataset confirmed its ability to predict remission (AUC = 0.776, balanced accuracy = 64%, negative predictive value = 70%, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: We confirm that rACC activity acts as a prognostic biomarker for depression. The machine learning model can identify patients who are likely to have difficult-to-treat depression, which might direct the earlier provision of enhanced support and more intensive therapies.

Genetic comorbidity between major depression and cardio-metabolic traits, stratified by age at onset of major depression.

It is imperative to understand the specific and shared etiologies of major depression and cardio-metabolic disease, as both traits are frequently comorbid and each represents a major burden to society. This study examined whether there is a genetic association between major depression and cardio-metabolic traits and if this association is stratified by age at onset for major depression. Polygenic risk scores analysis and linkage disequilibrium score regression was performed to examine whether differences in shared genetic etiology exist between depression case control status (N cases = 40,940, N controls = 67,532), earlier (N = 15,844), and later onset depression (N = 15,800) with body mass index, coronary artery disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes in 11 data sets from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, Generation Scotland, and UK Biobank. All cardio-metabolic polygenic risk scores were associated with depression status. Significant genetic correlations were found between depression and body mass index, coronary artery disease, and type 2 diabetes. Higher polygenic risk for body mass index, coronary artery disease, and type 2 diabetes was associated with both early and later onset depression, while higher polygenic risk for stroke was associated with later onset depression only. Significant genetic correlations were found between body mass index and later onset depression, and between coronary artery disease and both early and late onset depression. The phenotypic associations between major depression and cardio-metabolic traits may partly reflect their overlapping genetic etiology irrespective of the age depression first presents.

Large-scale evidence for an association between low-grade peripheral inflammation and brain structural alterations in major depression in the BiDirect study

Background: Preliminary research suggests that major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with structural alterations in the brain; as well as with low-grade peripheral inflammation. However, even though a link between inflammatory processes and altered brain structural integrity has been purported by experimental research, well-powered studies to confirm this hypothesis in patients with MDD have been lacking. We aimed to investigate the potential association between structural brain alterations and low-grade inflammation as interrelated biological correlates of MDD. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 514 patients with MDD and 359 healthy controls underwent structural MRI. We used voxel-based morphometry to study local differences in grey matter volume. We also assessed serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) in each participant. Results: Compared with healthy controls (age [mean ± standard deviation] 52.57 ± 7.94 yr; 50% male), patients with MDD (49.14 ± 7.28 yr, 39% male) exhibited significantly increased hsCRP levels (Z = −5.562, p < 0.001) and significantly decreased grey matter volume in the prefrontal cortex and the insula. Prefrontal grey matter volume reductions were significantly associated with higher hsCRP levels in patients with MDD (x = 50, y = 50, z = 8; t1,501 = 5.15; k = 92; pFWE < 0.001). In the MDD sample, the significant negative association between hsCRP and grey matter appeared independent of age, sex, body mass index, current smoking status, antidepressant load, hospitalization and medical comorbidities. Limitations: This study had a cross-sectional design. Conclusion: The present study highlights the role of reduced grey matter volume and low-grade peripheral inflammation as interrelated biological correlates of MDD. The reported inverse association between peripheral low-grade inflammation and brain structural integrity in patients with MDD translates current knowledge from experimental studies to the bedside.

Combining Clinical With Cognitive or Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data for Predicting Transition to Psychosis in Ultra High-Risk Patients: Data From the PACE 400 Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Multimodal modeling that combines biological and clinical data shows promise in predicting transition to psychosis in individuals who are at ultra-high risk. Individuals who transition to psychosis are known to have deficits at baseline in cognitive function and reductions in gray matter volume in multiple brain regions identified by magnetic resonance imaging. METHODS: In this study, we used Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess the additive predictive value of each modality-cognition, cortical structure information, and the neuroanatomical measure of brain age gap-to a previously developed clinical model using functioning and duration of symptoms prior to service entry as predictors in the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation (PACE) 400 cohort. The PACE 400 study is a well-characterized cohort of Australian youths who were identified as ultra-high risk of transitioning to psychosis using the Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS) and followed for up to 18 years; it contains clinical data (from N = 416 participants), cognitive data (n = 213), and magnetic resonance imaging cortical parameters extracted using FreeSurfer (n = 231). RESULTS: The results showed that neuroimaging, brain age gap, and cognition added marginal predictive information to the previously developed clinical model (fraction of new information: neuroimaging 0%-12%, brain age gap 7%, cognition 0%-16%). CONCLUSIONS: In summary, adding a second modality to a clinical risk model predicting the onset of a psychotic disorder in the PACE 400 cohort showed little improvement in the fit of the model for long-term prediction of transition to psychosis.

Exploring the genetics of lithium response in bipolar disorders.

BACKGROUND: Lithium (Li) remains the treatment of choice for bipolar disorders (BP). Its mood-stabilizing effects help reduce the long-term burden of mania, depression and suicide risk in patients with BP. It also has been shown to have beneficial effects on disease-associated conditions, including sleep and cardiovascular disorders. However, the individual responses to Li treatment vary within and between diagnostic subtypes of BP (e.g. BP-I and BP-II) according to the clinical presentation. Moreover, long-term Li treatment has been linked to adverse side-effects that are a cause of concern and non-adherence, including the risk of developing chronic medical conditions such as thyroid and renal disease. In recent years, studies by the Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen) have uncovered a number of genetic factors that contribute to the variability in Li treatment response in patients with BP. Here, we leveraged the ConLiGen cohort (N = 2064) to investigate the genetic basis of Li effects in BP. For this, we studied how Li response and linked genes associate with the psychiatric symptoms and polygenic load for medical comorbidities, placing particular emphasis on identifying differences between BP-I and BP-II. RESULTS: We found that clinical response to Li treatment, measured with the Alda scale, was associated with a diminished burden of mania, depression, substance and alcohol abuse, psychosis and suicidal ideation in patients with BP-I and, in patients with BP-II, of depression only. Our genetic analyses showed that a stronger clinical response to Li was modestly related to lower polygenic load for diabetes and hypertension in BP-I but not BP-II. Moreover, our results suggested that a number of genes that have been previously linked to Li response variability in BP differentially relate to the psychiatric symptomatology, particularly to the numbers of manic and depressive episodes, and to the polygenic load for comorbid conditions, including diabetes, hypertension and hypothyroidism. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our findings suggest that the effects of Li on symptomatology and comorbidity in BP are partially modulated by common genetic factors, with differential effects between BP-I and BP-II.

Cognitive improvement in patients with major depressive disorder after personalised multi domain training in the CERT-D study.

The CERT-D program offers a new treatment approach addressing disturbed cognitive and psychosocial functioning in major depressive disorder (MDD). The current analysis of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) comprises two objectives: Firstly, evaluating the program's efficacy of a personalised versus standard treatment and secondly, assessing the treatment's persistence longitudinally. Participants (N = 112) were randomised into a personalised or standard treatment group. Both groups received 8 weeks of cognitive training, followed by a three-month follow-up without additional training. The type of personalised training was determined by pre-treatment impairments in the domains of cognition, emotion-processing and social-cognition. Standard training addressed all three domains equivalent. Performance in these domains was assessed repeatedly during RCT and follow-up. Treatment comparisons during the RCT-period showed benefits of personalised versus standard treatment in certain aspects of social-cognition. Conversely, no benefits in the remaining domains were found, contradicting a general advantage of personalisation. Exploratory follow-up analysis on persistence of the program's effects indicated sustained intervention outcomes across the entire sample. A subsequent comparison of clinical outcomes between personalised versus standard treatment over a three-month follow-up period showed similar results. First evidence suggests that existing therapies for MDD could benefit from an adjunct administration of the CERT-D program.

Immunogenetics of lithium response and psychiatric phenotypes in patients with bipolar disorder.

The link between bipolar disorder (BP) and immune dysfunction remains controversial. While epidemiological studies have long suggested an association, recent research has found only limited evidence of such a relationship. To clarify this, we investigated the contributions of immune-relevant genetic factors to the response to lithium (Li) treatment and the clinical presentation of BP. First, we assessed the association of a large collection of immune-related genes (4,925) with Li response, defined by the Retrospective Assessment of the Lithium Response Phenotype Scale (Alda scale), and clinical characteristics in patients with BP from the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen, N = 2,374). Second, we calculated here previously published polygenic scores (PGSs) for immune-related traits and evaluated their associations with Li response and clinical features. We found several genes associated with Li response at p < 1×10- 4 values, including HAS3, CNTNAP5 and NFIB. Network and functional enrichment analyses uncovered an overrepresentation of pathways involved in cell adhesion and intercellular communication, which appear to converge on the well-known Li-induced inhibition of GSK-3ß. We also found various genes associated with BP's age-at-onset, number of mood episodes, and presence of psychosis, substance abuse and/or suicidal ideation at the exploratory threshold. These included RTN4, XKR4, NRXN1, NRG1/3 and GRK5. Additionally, PGS analyses suggested serum FAS, ECP, TRANCE and cytokine ligands, amongst others, might represent potential circulating biomarkers of Li response and clinical presentation. Taken together, our results support the notion of a relatively weak association between immunity and clinically relevant features of BP at the genetic level.

Exploring the genetics of lithium response in bipolar disorders.

Background: Lithium (Li) remains the treatment of choice for bipolar disorders (BP). Its mood-stabilizing effects help reduce the long-term burden of mania, depression and suicide risk in patients with BP. It also has been shown to have beneficial effects on disease-associated conditions, including sleep and cardiovascular disorders. However, the individual responses to Li treatment vary within and between diagnostic subtypes of BP (e.g. BP-I and BP-II) according to the clinical presentation. Moreover, long-term Li treatment has been linked to adverse side-effects that are a cause of concern and non-adherence, including the risk of developing chronic medical conditions such as thyroid and renal disease. In recent years, studies by the Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen) have uncovered a number of genetic factors that contribute to the variability in Li treatment response in patients with BP. Here, we leveraged the ConLiGen cohort (N=2,064) to investigate the genetic basis of Li effects in BP. For this, we studied how Li response and linked genes associate with the psychiatric symptoms and polygenic load for medical comorbidities, placing particular emphasis on identifying differences between BP-I and BP-II. Results: We found that clinical response to Li treatment, measured with the Alda scale, was associated with a diminished burden of mania, depression, substance and alcohol abuse, psychosis and suicidal ideation in patients with BP-I and, in patients with BP-II, of depression only. Our genetic analyses showed that a stronger clinical response to Li was modestly related to lower polygenic load for diabetes and hypertension in BP-I but not BP-II. Moreover, our results suggested that a number of genes that have been previously linked to Li response variability in BP differentially relate to the psychiatric symptomatology, particularly to the numbers of manic and depressive episodes, and to the polygenic load for comorbid conditions, including diabetes, hypertension and hypothyroidism. Conclusions: Taken together, our findings suggest that the effects of Li on symptomatology and comorbidity in BP are partially modulated by common genetic factors, with differential effects between BP-I and BP-II.

Prediction of Early Symptom Remission in Two Independent Samples of First-Episode Psychosis Patients Using Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: Validated clinical prediction models of short-term remission in psychosis are lacking. Our aim was to develop a clinical prediction model aimed at predicting 4-6-week remission following a first episode of psychosis. METHOD: Baseline clinical data from the Athens First Episode Research Study was used to develop a Support Vector Machine prediction model of 4-week symptom remission in first-episode psychosis patients using repeated nested cross-validation. This model was further tested to predict 6-week remission in a sample of two independent, consecutive Danish first-episode cohorts. RESULTS: Of the 179 participants in Athens, 120 were male with an average age of 25.8 years and average duration of untreated psychosis of 32.8 weeks. 62.9% were antipsychotic-naïve. Fifty-seven percent attained remission after 4 weeks. In the Danish cohort, 31% attained remission. Eleven clinical scale items were selected in the Athens 4-week remission cohort. These included the Duration of Untreated Psychosis, Personal and Social Performance Scale, Global Assessment of Functioning and eight items from the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. This model significantly predicted 4-week remission status (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) = 71.45, P < .0001). It also predicted 6-week remission status in the Danish cohort (ROC-AUC = 67.74, P < .0001), demonstrating reliability. CONCLUSIONS: Using items from common and validated clinical scales, our model significantly predicted early remission in patients with first-episode psychosis. Although replicated in an independent cohort, forward testing between machine learning models and clinicians' assessment should be undertaken to evaluate the possible utility as a routine clinical tool.

Psychological training to improve psychosocial function in patients with major depressive disorder: A randomised clinical trial.

Cognitive and emotional remediation training for depression (CERT-D): a randomised controlled trial to improve cognitive, emotional and functional outcomes in depression The aim of the current study was to evaluate an experimental treatment designed to improve psychosocial function in patients with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) by reinforcing cognitive, emotional, and social-cognitive abilities. Participants (N = 112) with current or lifetime MDD were recruited to participate in a randomised, blinded, controlled trial. Exclusion criteria included diagnosis of a substance abuse disorder, bipolar disorder organic, eating disorders, or illness which affect cognitive function. The treatment involved repeated cognitive training designed to improve cognitive, emotional, and social-cognitive abilities. In training sessions, the principles of cognitive training were applied across cognitive, emotional, and social domains, with participants completing repeated mental exercises. Exercises included critically analysing interpretations of social interactions (e.g., body language), exploring emotional reactions to stimuli, and completing game-like cognitive training tasks. Training sessions placed great emphasis on the application of trained cognitive, emotional, and social cognitive skills to psychosocial outcomes. Outcomes demonstrated significant improvement in psychosocial function, symptom severity, self-reported cognition, and social-cognition. Our findings demonstrate the efficacy of multi-domain cognitive training to improve psychosocial functioning in individuals with MDD. We suggest that the present treatment could be deployed at a lower cost and with minimal training in comparison to established psychological therapies.

Systematic misestimation of machine learning performance in neuroimaging studies of depression.

We currently observe a disconcerting phenomenon in machine learning studies in psychiatry: While we would expect larger samples to yield better results due to the availability of more data, larger machine learning studies consistently show much weaker performance than the numerous small-scale studies. Here, we systematically investigated this effect focusing on one of the most heavily studied questions in the field, namely the classification of patients suffering from Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and healthy controls based on neuroimaging data. Drawing upon structural MRI data from a balanced sample of N = 1868 MDD patients and healthy controls from our recent international Predictive Analytics Competition (PAC), we first trained and tested a classification model on the full dataset which yielded an accuracy of 61%. Next, we mimicked the process by which researchers would draw samples of various sizes (N = 4 to N = 150) from the population and showed a strong risk of misestimation. Specifically, for small sample sizes (N = 20), we observe accuracies of up to 95%. For medium sample sizes (N = 100) accuracies up to 75% were found. Importantly, further investigation showed that sufficiently large test sets effectively protect against performance misestimation whereas larger datasets per se do not. While these results question the validity of a substantial part of the current literature, we outline the relatively low-cost remedy of larger test sets, which is readily available in most cases.

Combining schizophrenia and depression polygenic risk scores improves the genetic prediction of lithium response in bipolar disorder patients.

Lithium is the gold standard therapy for Bipolar Disorder (BD) but its effectiveness differs widely between individuals. The molecular mechanisms underlying treatment response heterogeneity are not well understood, and personalized treatment in BD remains elusive. Genetic analyses of the lithium treatment response phenotype may generate novel molecular insights into lithium's therapeutic mechanisms and lead to testable hypotheses to improve BD management and outcomes. We used fixed effect meta-analysis techniques to develop meta-analytic polygenic risk scores (MET-PRS) from combinations of highly correlated psychiatric traits, namely schizophrenia (SCZ), major depression (MD) and bipolar disorder (BD). We compared the effects of cross-disorder MET-PRS and single genetic trait PRS on lithium response. For the PRS analyses, we included clinical data on lithium treatment response and genetic information for n = 2283 BD cases from the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen; www.ConLiGen.org ). Higher SCZ and MD PRSs were associated with poorer lithium treatment response whereas BD-PRS had no association with treatment outcome. The combined MET2-PRS comprising of SCZ and MD variants (MET2-PRS) and a model using SCZ and MD-PRS sequentially improved response prediction, compared to single-disorder PRS or to a combined score using all three traits (MET3-PRS). Patients in the highest decile for MET2-PRS loading had 2.5 times higher odds of being classified as poor responders than patients with the lowest decile MET2-PRS scores. An exploratory functional pathway analysis of top MET2-PRS variants was conducted. Findings may inform the development of future testing strategies for personalized lithium prescribing in BD.

HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 genetic diversity modulates response to lithium in bipolar affective disorders.

Bipolar affective disorder (BD) is a severe psychiatric illness, for which lithium (Li) is the gold standard for acute and maintenance therapies. The therapeutic response to Li in BD is heterogeneous and reliable biomarkers allowing patients stratification are still needed. A GWAS performed by the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen) has recently identified genetic markers associated with treatment responses to Li in the human leukocyte antigens (HLA) region. To better understand the molecular mechanisms underlying this association, we have genetically imputed the classical alleles of the HLA region in the European patients of the ConLiGen cohort. We found our best signal for amino-acid variants belonging to the HLA-DRB1*11:01 classical allele, associated with a better response to Li (p < 1 × 10-3; FDR < 0.09 in the recessive model). Alanine or Leucine at position 74 of the HLA-DRB1 heavy chain was associated with a good response while Arginine or Glutamic acid with a poor response. As these variants have been implicated in common inflammatory/autoimmune processes, our findings strongly suggest that HLA-mediated low inflammatory background may contribute to the efficient response to Li in BD patients, while an inflammatory status overriding Li anti-inflammatory properties would favor a weak response.