Simulating tree growth response to climate change in structurally diverse oak and beech forests.

This study aimed to simulate oak and beech forest growth under various scenarios of climate change and to evaluate how the forest response depends on site properties and particularly on stand characteristics using the individual process-based model HETEROFOR. First, this model was evaluated on a wide range of site conditions. We used data from 36 long-term forest monitoring plots to initialize, calibrate, and evaluate HETEROFOR. This evaluation showed that HETEROFOR predicts individual tree radial growth and height increment reasonably well under different growing conditions when evaluated on independent sites. In our simulations under constant CO2 concentration ([CO2]cst) for the 2071-2100 period, climate change induced a moderate net primary production (NPP) gain in continental and mountainous zones and no change in the oceanic zone. The NPP changes were negatively affected by air temperature during the vegetation period and by the annual rainfall decrease. To a lower extent, they were influenced by soil extractable water reserve and stand characteristics. These NPP changes were positively affected by longer vegetation periods and negatively by drought for beech and larger autotrophic respiration costs for oak. For both species, the NPP gain was much larger with rising CO2 concentration ([CO2]var) mainly due to the CO2 fertilisation effect. Even if the species composition and structure had a limited influence on the forest response to climate change, they explained a large part of the NPP variability (44% and 34% for [CO2]cst and [CO2]var, respectively) compared to the climate change scenario (5% and 29%) and the inter-annual climate variability (20% and 16%). This gives the forester the possibility to act on the productivity of broadleaved forests and prepare them for possible adverse effects of climate change by reinforcing their resilience.

The 2018 European heatwave led to stem dehydration but not to consistent growth reductions in forests.

Heatwaves exert disproportionately strong and sometimes irreversible impacts on forest ecosystems. These impacts remain poorly understood at the tree and species level and across large spatial scales. Here, we investigate the effects of the record-breaking 2018 European heatwave on tree growth and tree water status using a collection of high-temporal resolution dendrometer data from 21 species across 53 sites. Relative to the two preceding years, annual stem growth was not consistently reduced by the 2018 heatwave but stems experienced twice the temporary shrinkage due to depletion of water reserves. Conifer species were less capable of rehydrating overnight than broadleaves across gradients of soil and atmospheric drought, suggesting less resilience toward transient stress. In particular, Norway spruce and Scots pine experienced extensive stem dehydration. Our high-resolution dendrometer network was suitable to disentangle the effects of a severe heatwave on tree growth and desiccation at large-spatial scales in situ, and provided insights on which species may be more vulnerable to climate extremes.

Chloride and organic chlorine in forest soils: storage, residence times, and influence of ecological conditions.

Recent studies have shown that extensive chlorination of natural organic matter significantly affects chlorine (Cl) residence time in soils. This natural biogeochemical process must be considered when developing the conceptual models used as the basis for safety assessments regarding the potential health impacts of 36-chlorine released from present and planned radioactive waste disposal facilities. In this study, we surveyed 51 French forested areas to determine the variability in chlorine speciation and storage in soils. Concentrations of total chlorine (Cl(tot)) and organic chlorine (Cl(org)) were determined in litterfall, forest floor and mineral soil samples. Cl(org) constituted 11-100% of Cl(tot), with the highest concentrations being found in the humus layer (34-689 mg Cl(org) kg(-1)). In terms of areal storage (53 - 400 kg Cl(org) ha(-1)) the mineral soil dominated due to its greater thickness (40 cm). Cl(org) concentrations and estimated retention of organochlorine in the humus layer were correlated with Cl input, total Cl concentration, organic carbon content, soil pH and the dominant tree species. Cl(org) concentration in mineral soil was not significantly influenced by the studied environmental factors, however increasing Cl:C ratios with depth could indicate selective preservation of chlorinated organic molecules. Litterfall contributions of Cl were significant but generally minor compared to other fluxes and stocks. Assuming steady-state conditions, known annual wet deposition and measured inventories in soil, the theoretical average residence time calculated for total chlorine (inorganic (Cl(in)) and organic) was 5-fold higher than that estimated for Cl(in) alone. Consideration of the Cl(org) pool is therefore clearly important in studies of overall Cl cycling in terrestrial ecosystems.

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models.

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.