Increased burden of cardiovascular disease in people with liver disease: unequal geographical variations, risk factors and excess years of life lost.

BACKGROUND: People with liver disease are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD), however, there has yet been an investigation of incidence burden, risk, and premature mortality across a wide range of liver conditions and cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: We employed population-wide electronic health records (EHRs; from 1998 to 2020) consisting of almost 4 million adults to assess regional variations in disease burden of five liver conditions, alcoholic liver disease (ALD), autoimmune liver disease, chronic hepatitis B infection (HBV), chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV) and NAFLD, in England. We analysed regional differences in incidence rates for 17 manifestations of CVD in people with or without liver disease. The associations between biomarkers and comorbidities and risk of CVD in patients with liver disease were estimated using Cox models. For each liver condition, we estimated excess years of life lost (YLL) attributable to CVD (i.e., difference in YLL between people with or without CVD). RESULTS: The age-standardised incidence rate for any liver disease was 114.5 per 100,000 person years. The highest incidence was observed in NAFLD (85.5), followed by ALD (24.7), HCV (6.0), HBV (4.1) and autoimmune liver disease (3.7). Regionally, the North West and North East regions consistently exhibited high incidence burden. Age-specific incidence rate analyses revealed that the peak incidence for liver disease of non-viral aetiology is reached in individuals aged 50-59 years. Patients with liver disease had a two-fold higher incidence burden of CVD (2634.6 per 100,000 persons) compared to individuals without liver disease (1339.7 per 100,000 persons). When comparing across liver diseases, atrial fibrillation was the most common initial CVD presentation while hypertrophic cardiomyopathy was the least common. We noted strong positive associations between body mass index and current smoking and risk of CVD. Patients who also had diabetes, hypertension, proteinuric kidney disease, chronic kidney disease, diverticular disease and gastro-oesophageal reflex disorders had a higher risk of CVD, as do patients with low albumin, raised C-reactive protein and raised International Normalized Ratio levels. All types of CVD were associated with shorter life expectancies. When evaluating excess YLLs by age of CVD onset and by liver disease type, differences in YLLs, when comparing across CVD types, were more pronounced at younger ages. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a public online app ( https://lailab.shinyapps.io/cvd_in_liver_disease/ ) to showcase results interactively. We provide a blueprint that revealed previously underappreciated clinical factors related to the risk of CVD, which differed in the magnitude of effects across liver diseases. We found significant geographical variations in the burden of liver disease and CVD, highlighting the need to devise local solutions. Targeted policies and regional initiatives addressing underserved communities might help improve equity of access to CVD screening and treatment.

An informatics consult approach for generating clinical evidence for treatment decisions.

BACKGROUND: An Informatics Consult has been proposed in which clinicians request novel evidence from large scale health data resources, tailored to the treatment of a specific patient. However, the availability of such consultations is lacking. We seek to provide an Informatics Consult for a situation where a treatment indication and contraindication coexist in the same patient, i.e., anti-coagulation use for stroke prevention in a patient with both atrial fibrillation (AF) and liver cirrhosis. METHODS: We examined four sources of evidence for the effect of warfarin on stroke risk or all-cause mortality from: (1) randomised controlled trials (RCTs), (2) meta-analysis of prior observational studies, (3) trial emulation (using population electronic health records (N = 3,854,710) and (4) genetic evidence (Mendelian randomisation). We developed prototype forms to request an Informatics Consult and return of results in electronic health record systems. RESULTS: We found 0 RCT reports and 0 trials recruiting for patients with AF and cirrhosis. We found broad concordance across the three new sources of evidence we generated. Meta-analysis of prior observational studies showed that warfarin use was associated with lower stroke risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.71, CI 0.39-1.29). In a target trial emulation, warfarin was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR = 0.61, CI 0.49-0.76) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 0.27, CI 0.08-0.91). Mendelian randomisation served as a drug target validation where we found that lower levels of vitamin K1 (warfarin is a vitamin K1 antagonist) are associated with lower stroke risk. A pilot survey with an independent sample of 34 clinicians revealed that 85% of clinicians found information on prognosis useful and that 79% thought that they should have access to the Informatics Consult as a service within their healthcare systems. We identified candidate steps for automation to scale evidence generation and to accelerate the return of results. CONCLUSION: We performed a proof-of-concept Informatics Consult for evidence generation, which may inform treatment decisions in situations where there is dearth of randomised trials. Patients are surprised to know that their clinicians are currently not able to learn in clinic from data on 'patients like me'. We identify the key challenges in offering such an Informatics Consult as a service.

An integrative pan-cancer investigation reveals common genetic and transcriptional alterations of AMPK pathway genes as important predictors of clinical outcomes across major cancer types.

BACKGROUND: The AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) is an evolutionarily conserved regulator of cellular energy homeostasis. As a nexus for transducing metabolic signals, AMPK cooperates with other energy-sensing pathways to modulate cellular responses to metabolic stressors. With metabolic reprogramming being a hallmark of cancer, the utility of agents targeting AMPK has received continued scrutiny and results have demonstrated conflicting effects of AMPK activation in tumorigenesis. Harnessing multi-omics datasets from human tumors, we seek to evaluate the seemingly pleiotropic, tissue-specific dependencies of AMPK signaling dysregulation. METHODS: We interrogated copy number variation and differential transcript expression of 92 AMPK pathway genes across 21 diverse cancers involving over 18,000 patients. Cox proportional hazards regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic significance of AMPK dysregulation on patient outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 24 and seven AMPK pathway genes were identified as having loss- or gain-of-function features. These genes exhibited tissue-type dependencies, where survival outcomes in glioma patients were most influenced by AMPK inactivation. Cox regression and log-rank tests revealed that the 24-AMPK-gene set could successfully stratify patients into high- and low-risk groups in glioma, sarcoma, breast and stomach cancers. The 24-AMPK-gene set could not only discriminate tumor from non-tumor samples, as confirmed by multidimensional scaling analyses, but is also independent of tumor, node and metastasis staging. AMPK inactivation is accompanied by the activation of multiple oncogenic pathways associated with cell adhesion, calcium signaling and extracellular matrix organization. Anomalous AMPK signaling converged on similar groups of transcriptional targets where a common set of transcription factors were identified to regulate these targets. We also demonstrated crosstalk between pro-catabolic AMPK signaling and two pro-anabolic pathways, mammalian target of rapamycin and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors, where they act synergistically to influence tumor progression significantly. CONCLUSION: Genetic and transcriptional aberrations in AMPK signaling have tissue-dependent pro- or anti-tumor impacts. Pan-cancer investigations on molecular changes of this pathway could uncover novel therapeutic targets and support risk stratification of patients in prospective trials.

Aberrations in Notch-Hedgehog signalling reveal cancer stem cells harbouring conserved oncogenic properties associated with hypoxia and immunoevasion.

BACKGROUND: Cancer stem cells (CSCs) have innate abilities to resist even the harshest of therapies. To eradicate CSCs, parallels can be drawn from signalling modules that orchestrate pluripotency. Notch-Hedgehog hyperactivation are seen in CSCs, yet, not much is known about their conserved roles in tumour progression across cancers. METHODS: Employing a comparative approach involving 21 cancers, we uncovered clinically-relevant, pan-cancer drivers of Notch and Hedgehog. GISTIC datasets were used to evaluate copy number alterations. Receiver operating characteristic and Cox regression were employed for survival analyses. RESULTS: We identified a Notch-Hedgehog signature of 13 genes exhibiting high frequencies of somatic amplifications leading to transcript overexpression. The signature successfully predicted patients at risk of death in five cancers (n = 2278): glioma (P < 0.0001), clear cell renal cell (P = 0.0022), papillary renal cell (P = 0.00099), liver (P = 0.014) and stomach (P = 0.011). The signature was independent of other clinicopathological parameters and offered an additional resolution to stratify similarly-staged tumours. High-risk patients exhibited features of stemness and had more hypoxic tumours, suggesting that hypoxia may influence CSC behaviour. Notch-Hedgehog+ CSCs had an immune privileged phenotype associated with increased regulatory T cell function. CONCLUSION: This study will set the stage for exploring adjuvant therapy targeting the Notch-Hedgehog axis to help optimise therapeutic regimes leading to successful CSC elimination.

An immunoevasive strategy through clinically-relevant pan-cancer genomic and transcriptomic alterations of JAK-STAT signaling components.

BACKGROUND: Since its discovery almost three decades ago, the Janus kinase (JAK)-signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) pathway has paved the road for understanding inflammatory and immunity processes related to a wide range of human pathologies including cancer. Several studies have demonstrated the importance of JAK-STAT pathway components in regulating tumor initiation and metastatic progression, yet, the extent of how genetic alterations influence patient outcome is far from being understood. METHODS: Focusing on 133 genes involved in JAK-STAT signaling, we investigated genomic, transcriptomic and clinical profiles of over 18,000 patients representing 21 diverse cancer types. We identified a core set of 28 putative gain- or loss-of-function JAK-STAT genes that correlated with survival outcomes using Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. Differential expression analyses between high- and low-expressing patient groups were performed to evaluate the consequences of JAK-STAT misexpression. RESULTS: We found that copy number alterations underpinning transcriptional dysregulation of JAK-STAT pathway genes differ within and between cancer types. Integrated analyses uniting genomic and transcriptomic datasets revealed a core set of JAK-STAT pathway genes that correlated with survival outcomes in brain, renal, lung and endometrial cancers. High JAK-STAT scores were associated with increased mortality rates in brain and renal cancers, but not in lung and endometrial cancers where hyperactive JAK-STAT signaling is a positive prognostic factor. Patients with aberrant JAK-STAT signaling demonstrated pan-cancer molecular features associated with misexpression of genes in other oncogenic pathways (Wnt, MAPK, TGF-ß, PPAR and VEGF). Brain and renal tumors with hyperactive JAK-STAT signaling had increased regulatory T cell gene (Treg) expression. A combined model uniting JAK-STAT and Tregs allowed further delineation of risk groups where patients with high JAK-STAT and Treg scores consistently performed the worst. CONCLUSION: Providing a pan-cancer perspective of clinically-relevant JAK-STAT alterations, this study could serve as a framework for future research investigating anti-tumor immunity using combination therapy involving JAK-STAT and immune checkpoint inhibitors.

Timing gone awry: distinct tumour suppressive and oncogenic roles of the circadian clock and crosstalk with hypoxia signalling in diverse malignancies.

BACKGROUND: The circadian clock governs a large variety of fundamentally important physiological processes in all three domains of life. Consequently, asynchrony in timekeeping mechanisms could give rise to cellular dysfunction underpinning many disease pathologies including human neoplasms. Yet, detailed pan-cancer evidence supporting this notion has been limited. METHODS: In an integrated approach uniting genomic, transcriptomic and clinical data of 21 cancer types (n = 18,484), we interrogated copy number and transcript profiles of 32 circadian clock genes to identify putative loss-of-function (ClockLoss) and gain-of-function (ClockGain) players. Kaplan-Meier, Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses were employed to evaluate the prognostic significance of both gene sets. RESULTS: ClockLoss and ClockGain were associated with tumour-suppressing and tumour-promoting roles respectively. Downregulation of ClockLoss genes resulted in significantly higher mortality rates in five cancer cohorts (n = 2914): bladder (P = 0.027), glioma (P < 0.0001), pan-kidney (P = 0.011), clear cell renal cell (P < 0.0001) and stomach (P = 0.0007). In contrast, patients with high expression of oncogenic ClockGain genes had poorer survival outcomes (n = 2784): glioma (P < 0.0001), pan-kidney (P = 0.0034), clear cell renal cell (P = 0.014), lung (P = 0.046) and pancreas (P = 0.0059). Both gene sets were independent of other clinicopathological features to permit further delineation of tumours within the same stage. Circadian reprogramming of tumour genomes resulted in activation of numerous oncogenic pathways including those associated with cancer stem cells, suggesting that the circadian clock may influence self-renewal mechanisms. Within the hypoxic tumour microenvironment, circadian dysregulation is exacerbated by tumour hypoxia in glioma, renal, lung and pancreatic cancers, resulting in additional death risks. Tumour suppressive ClockLoss genes were negatively correlated with hypoxia inducible factor-1A targets in glioma patients, providing a novel framework for investigating the hypoxia-clock signalling axis. CONCLUSIONS: Loss of timekeeping fidelity promotes tumour progression and influences clinical outcomes. ClockLoss and ClockGain may offer novel druggable targets for improving patient prognosis. Both gene sets can be used for patient stratification in adjuvant chronotherapy treatment. Emerging interactions between the circadian clock and hypoxia may be harnessed to achieve therapeutic advantage using hypoxia-modifying compounds in combination with first-line treatments.

A novel signature derived from immunoregulatory and hypoxia genes predicts prognosis in liver and five other cancers.

BACKGROUND: Despite much progress in cancer research, its incidence and mortality continue to rise. A robust biomarker that would predict tumor behavior is highly desirable and could improve patient treatment and prognosis. METHODS: In a retrospective bioinformatics analysis involving patients with liver cancer (n = 839), we developed a prognostic signature consisting of 45 genes associated with tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and cellular responses to hypoxia. From this gene set, we were able to identify a second prognostic signature comprised of 8 genes. Its performance was further validated in five other cancers: head and neck (n = 520), renal papillary cell (n = 290), lung (n = 515), pancreas (n = 178) and endometrial (n = 370). RESULTS: The 45-gene signature predicted overall survival in three liver cancer cohorts: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.82, P = 0.006; HR = 1.84, P = 0.008 and HR = 2.67, P = 0.003. Additionally, the reduced 8-gene signature was sufficient and effective in predicting survival in liver and five other cancers: liver (HR = 2.36, P = 0.0003; HR = 2.43, P = 0.0002 and HR = 3.45, P = 0.0007), head and neck (HR = 1.64, P = 0.004), renal papillary cell (HR = 2.31, P = 0.04), lung (HR = 1.45, P = 0.03), pancreas (HR = 1.96, P = 0.006) and endometrial (HR = 2.33, P = 0.003). Receiver operating characteristic analyses demonstrated both signatures superior performance over current tumor staging parameters. Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that both 45-gene and 8-gene signatures were independent of other clinicopathological features in these cancers. Combining the gene signatures with somatic mutation profiles increased their prognostic ability. CONCLUSIONS: This study, to our knowledge, is the first to identify a gene signature uniting both tumor hypoxia and lymphocytic infiltration as a prognostic determinant in six cancer types (n = 2712). The 8-gene signature can be used for patient risk stratification by incorporating hypoxia information to aid clinical decision making.

Mixed evolutionary origins of endogenous biomass-depolymerizing enzymes in animals.

BACKGROUND: Animals are thought to achieve lignocellulose digestion via symbiotic associations with gut microbes; this view leads to significant focus on bacteria and fungi for lignocellulolytic systems. The presence of biomass conversion systems hardwired into animal genomes has not yet been unequivocally demonstrated. RESULTS: We perform an exhaustive search for glycoside hydrolase (GH) genes from 21 genomes representing major bilaterian (Ecdysozoa, Spiralia, Echinodermata and Chordata) and basal metazoan (Porifera and Cnidaria) lineages. We also assessed the genome of a unicellular relative of Metazoa, Capsaspora owczarzaki and together with comparative analyses on 126 crustacean transcriptomes, we found that animals are living bioreactors at a microscale as they encode enzymatic suites for biomass decomposition. We identified a total of 16,723 GH homologs (2373 genes from animal genomes and 14,350 genes from crustacean transcriptomes) that are further classified into 60 GH families. Strikingly, through phylogenetic analyses, we observed that animal lignocellulosic enzymes have multiple origins, either inherited vertically over millions of years from a common ancestor or acquired more recently from non-animal organisms. CONCLUSION: We have conducted a systematic and comprehensive survey of GH genes across major animal lineages. The ability of biomass decay appears to be determined by animals' dietary strategies. Detritivores have genes that accomplish broad enzymatic functions while the number of GH families is reduced in animals that have evolved specialized diets. Animal GH candidates identified in this study will not only facilitate future functional genomics research but also provide an analysis platform to identify enzyme candidates with industrial potential.

Pan-cancer analyses of the associations between 109 pre-existing conditions and cancer treatment patterns across 19 adult cancers.

Comorbidities present considerable challenges to cancer treatment and care. However, little is known about the effect of comorbidity on cancer treatment decisions across a wide range of cancer types and treatment modalities. Harnessing a cohort of 280,543 patients spanning 19 site-specific cancers, we explored pan-cancer frequencies of 109 comorbidities. Multinomial logistic regression was used to analyse the relationship between comorbidities and cancer treatment types, while binomial logistic regression examined the association between comorbidities and chemotherapy drug types, adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. Patients with comorbidity exhibited lower odds of receiving chemotherapy and multimodality treatment. End-stage renal disease was significantly associated with a decreased odds of receiving chemotherapy and surgery. Patients with prostate cancer who have comorbid non-acute cystitis, obstructive and reflux uropathy, urolithiasis, or hypertension were less likely to receive chemotherapy. Among patients with breast cancer, dementia, left bundle branch block, peripheral arterial disease, epilepsy, Barrett's oesophagus, ischaemic stroke, unstable angina and asthma were associated with lower odds of receiving multimodal chemotherapy, radiotherapy and surgery. Comorbidity is also consistently associated with the lower odds of receiving chemotherapy when comparing across 10 drug classes. Patients with comorbid dementia, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, oesophageal varices, liver fibrosis sclerosis and cirrhosis and secondary pulmonary hypertension were less likely to receive antimetabolites. Comorbidity can influence the effectiveness and tolerability of cancer treatment and ultimately, prognosis. Multi-specialty collaborative care is essential for the management of comorbidity during cancer treatment, including prophylactic measures to manage toxicities.

Cumulative burden of 144 conditions, critical care hospitalisation and premature mortality across 26 adult cancers.

A comprehensive evaluation of the total burden of morbidity endured by cancer survivors remains unavailable. This study quantified the burden of 144 health conditions and critical care admissions across 26 adult cancers and treatment modalities in 243,767 adults. By age 60, top conditions ranked by fold difference (cumulative burden in survivors divided by cumulative burden in controls) were haematology, immunology/infection and pulmonary conditions. Patients who had all three forms of treatment (chemotherapy, radiotherapy and surgery) experienced a high cumulative burden of late morbidities compared with patients who received radiotherapy alone. The top five cancers with the highest cumulative burden of critical care admissions by age 60 were bone (12.4 events per 100 individuals [CI: 11.6-13.1]), brain (9.0 [7.5-10.5]), spinal cord and nervous system (7.2 [6.7-7.8]), testis (6.7 [4.9-8.4]) and Hodgkin lymphoma (4.4 [3.6-5.1]). Conditions that were associated with high excess years-of-life-lost were haematological conditions (9.6 years), pulmonary conditions (8.6 years) and immunological conditions or infections (7.8 years). As the population of cancer survivors continues to grow, our results indicate that it is important to tackle long-term health consequences through enacting data-driven policies.

Injury primes mutation-bearing astrocytes for dedifferentiation in later life.

Despite their latent neurogenic potential, most normal parenchymal astrocytes fail to dedifferentiate to neural stem cells in response to injury. In contrast, aberrant lineage plasticity is a hallmark of gliomas, and this suggests that tumor suppressors may constrain astrocyte dedifferentiation. Here, we show that p53, one of the most commonly inactivated tumor suppressors in glioma, is a gatekeeper of astrocyte fate. In the context of stab-wound injury, p53 loss destabilized the identity of astrocytes, priming them to dedifferentiate in later life. This resulted from persistent and age-exacerbated neuroinflammation at the injury site and EGFR activation in periwound astrocytes. Mechanistically, dedifferentiation was driven by the synergistic upregulation of mTOR signaling downstream of p53 loss and EGFR, which reinstates stemness programs via increased translation of neurodevelopmental transcription factors. Thus, our findings suggest that first-hit mutations remove the barriers to injury-induced dedifferentiation by sensitizing somatic cells to inflammatory signals, with implications for tumorigenesis.

Cumulative burden of psychiatric disorders and self-harm across 26 adult cancers.

Cancer is a life-altering event causing considerable psychological distress. However, information on the total burden of psychiatric disorders across all common adult cancers and therapy exposures has remained scarce. Here, we estimated the risk of self-harm after incident psychiatric disorder diagnosis in patients with cancer and the risk of unnatural deaths after self-harm in 459,542 individuals. Depression was the most common psychiatric disorder in patients with cancer. Patients who received chemotherapy, radiotherapy and surgery had the highest cumulative burden of psychiatric disorders. Patients treated with alkylating agent chemotherapeutics had the highest burden of psychiatric disorders, whereas those treated with kinase inhibitors had the lowest burden. All mental illnesses were associated with an increased risk of subsequent self-harm, where the highest risk was observed within 12 months of the mental illness diagnosis. Patients who harmed themselves were 6.8 times more likely to die of unnatural causes of death compared with controls within 12 months of self-harm (hazard ratio (HR), 6.8; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.3-10.7). The risk of unnatural death after 12 months was markedly lower (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.5-2.7). We provide an extensive knowledge base to help inform collaborative cancer-psychiatric care initiatives by prioritizing patients who are most at risk.

Multimorbidity patterns and risk of hospitalisation in children: A population cohort study of 3.6 million children in England, with illustrative examples from childhood cancer survivors.

Background: Population-level estimates of hospitalisation risk in children are currently limited. The study aims to characterise morbidity patterns in all children, focusing on childhood cancer survivors versus children without cancer. Methods: Employing hospital records of children aged <19 years between 1997 to 2018 in England, we characterised morbidity patterns in childhood cancer survivors compared with children without cancer. The follow-up began on the 5th anniversary of the index hospitalisation and the primary outcome was the incidence of comorbidities. Findings: We identified 3,559,439 eligible participants having 12,740,666 hospital admissions, with a mean age at study entry of 11.2 years. We identified 32,221 patients who survived for at least 5 years since their initial cancer diagnosis. During the follow-up period and within the whole population of 3.6 million children, the leading conditions for admission were (i) metabolic, endocrine, digestive renal and genitourinary conditions (84,749, 2.5%), (ii) neurological (35,833, 1.0%) and (iii) musculoskeletal or skin conditions (23,574, 0.7%), fever, acute respiratory and sepsis (22,604, 0.7%). Stratified analyses revealed that females and children from socioeconomically deprived areas had a higher cumulative incidence for morbidities requiring hospitalisation (p < 0.001). At baseline (5 years after the initial cancer diagnosis or initial hospitalisation for survivors and population comparisons, respectively), cancer survivors experienced a higher prevalence of individual conditions and multimorbidity (≥ 2 morbidities) compared with children without cancer. Cox regression analyses showed that survivors had at least a 4-fold increase in the risk of hospitalisation for conditions such as chronic eye conditions (hazard ration (HR):4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.5-4.7), fever requiring hospitalisation (HR: 4.4, 95% CI: 3.8-5.0), subsequent neoplasms (HR: 5.7, 95% CI:5.0-6.5), immunological disorders (HR: 6.5, 95% CI:4.5-9.3) and metabolic conditions (HR: 7.1, 95% CI:5.9-8.5). Interpretation: The overall morbidity burden among children was low in general; however, childhood cancer survivors experienced a higher prevalence and subsequent risk of hospitalisation for a range of morbidities. Targeted policies may be required to promote awareness on health vulnerabilities and gender disparity and to improve advocacy for healthcare in deprived communities. Funding: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Great Ormond Street Hospital Biomedical Research Centre and Academy of Medical Sciences. The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.

Late effects of cancer in children, teenagers and young adults: Population-based study on the burden of 183 conditions, in-patient and critical care admissions and years of life lost.

BACKGROUND: Children, teenagers and young adults who survived cancer are prone to developing late effects. The burden of late effects across a large number of conditions, in-patient hospitalisation and critical care admissions have not been described using a population-based dataset. We aim to systematically quantify the cumulative burden of late effects across all cancer subtypes, treatment modalities and chemotherapy drug classes. METHODS: We employed primary care records linked to hospitals, the death registry and cancer registry from 1998-2020. CTYA survivors were 25 years or younger at the time of cancer diagnosis had survived ≥5 years post-diagnosis. Year-of-birth and sex-matched community controls were used for comparison. We considered nine treatment types, nine chemotherapy classes and 183 physical and mental health late effects. Cumulative burden was estimated using mean cumulative count, which considers recurring events. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate the association between treatment exposures and late effects. Excess years of life lost (YLL) attributable to late effects were estimated. FINDINGS: Among 4,063 patients diagnosed with cancer, 3,466 survived ≥ 5 years (85%); 13,517 matched controls were identified. The cumulative burden of late effects at age 35 was the highest in survivors of leukaemia (23.52 per individual [95% CI:19.85-29.33]) and lowest in survivors of germ cell tumours (CI:6.04 [5.32-6.91]). In controls, the cumulative burden was 3.99 (CI:3.93-4.08) at age 35 years. When survivors reach age 45, the cumulative burden for immunological conditions and infections was the highest (3.27 [CI:3.01-3.58]), followed by cardiovascular conditions (3.08 [CI:1.98-3.29]). Survivors who received chemotherapy and radiotherapy had the highest disease burden compared to those who received surgery only. These patients also had the highest burden of hospitalisation (by age 45: 10.43 [CI:8.27-11.95]). Survivors who received antimetabolite chemotherapy had the highest disease and hospitalisation burden, while the lowest burden is observed in those receiving antitumour antibiotics. Regression analyses revealed that survivors who received only surgery had lower odds of developing cardiovascular (adjusted odds ratio 0.73 [CI:0.56-0.94]), haematological (aOR 0.51 [CI:0.37-0.70]), immunology and infection (aOR 0.84 [CI:0.71-0.99]) and renal (aOR 0.51 [CI:0.39-0.66]) late effects. By contrast, the opposite trend was observed in survivors who received chemo-radiotherapy. High antimetabolite chemotherapy cumulative dose was associated with increased risks of subsequent cancer (aOR 2.32 [CI:1.06-4.84]), metastatic cancer (aOR 4.44 [CI:1.29-11.66]) and renal (aOR 3.48 [CI:1.36-7.86]) conditions. Patients who received radiation dose of ≥50 Gy experienced higher risks of developing metastatic cancer (aOR 5.51 [CI:2.21-11.86]), cancer (aOR 3.77 [CI:2.22-6.34]), haematological (aOR 3.43 [CI:1.54-6.83]) and neurological (aOR 3.24 [CI:1.78-5.66]) conditions. Similar trends were observed in survivors who received more than three teletherapy fields. Cumulative burden analyses on 183 conditions separately revealed varying dominance of different late effects across cancer types, socioeconomic deprivation and treatment modalities. Late effects are associated with excess YLL (i.e., the difference in YLL between survivors with or without late effects), which was the most pronounced among survivors with haematological comorbidities. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this is the first study to dissect and quantify the importance of late morbidities on subsequent survival using linked electronic health records from multiple settings. The burden of late effects is heterogeneous, as is the risk of premature mortality associated with late effects. We provide an extensive knowledgebase to help inform treatment decisions at the point of diagnosis, future interventional trials and late-effects screening centred on the holistic needs of this vulnerable population.

Comparing clinical trial population representativeness to real-world populations: an external validity analysis encompassing 43 895 trials and 5 685 738 individuals across 989 unique drugs and 286 conditions in England.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) inform prescription guidelines, but stringent eligibility criteria exclude individuals with vulnerable characteristics, which we define as comorbidities, concomitant medication use, and vulnerabilities due to age. Poor external validity can result in inadequate treatment decision information. Our first aim was to quantify the extent of exclusion of individuals with vulnerable characteristics from RCTs for all prescription drugs. Our second aim was to quantify the prevalence of individuals with vulnerable characteristics from population electronic health records who are actively prescribed such drugs. In tandem, these two aims will allow us to assess the representativeness between RCT and real-world populations and identify vulnerable populations potentially at risk of inadequate treatment decision information. When a vulnerable population is highly excluded from RCTs but has a high prevalence of individuals actively being prescribed the same medication, there is likely to be a gap in treatment decision information. Our third aim was to investigate the use of real-world evidence in contributing towards quantifying missing treatment risk or benefit through an observational study. METHODS: We extracted RCTs from ClinicalTrials.gov from its inception to April 28, 2021, and primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold database from Jan 1, 1998, to Dec 31, 2020. We referred to the British National Formulary to classify prescription drugs into drug categories. We conducted descriptive analyses and quantified RCT exclusion and prevalence of individuals with vulnerable characteristics for comparison to identify populations without treatment decision information. Exclusion and prevalence were assessed separately for different age groups, individual clinical specialities, and for quantities of concomitant conditions by clinical specialities, where multimorbidity was defined as having two or more clinical specialties, and medications prescribed, where polypharmacy was defined as having five or more medications prescribed. Population trends of individuals with multimorbidity or polypharmacy were assessed separately by age group. We conducted an observational cohort study to validate the use of real-world evidence in contributing towards quantifying treatment risk or benefit for patients with dementia on anti-dementia drugs with and without a contraindicated clinical speciality. To do so, we identified the clinical specialities that anti-dementia drug RCTs highly excluded yet had corresponding high prevalence in the real-world population, forming the groups with highest risk of having scarce treatment decision information. Cox regression was used to assess if the risk of mortality outcomes differs between both groups. FINDINGS: 43 895 RCTs from ClinicalTrials.gov and 5 685 738 million individuals from primary care records were used. We considered 989 unique drugs and 286 conditions across 13 drug-category cohorts. For the descriptive analyses, the median RCT exclusion proportion across 13 drug categories was 81·5% (IQR 76·7-85·5) for adolescents (aged <18 years), 26·3% (IQR 21·0-29·5) for individuals older than 60 years, 40·5% (IQR 33·7-43·0) for individuals older than 70 years, and 52·9% (IQR 47·1-56·0) for individuals older than 80 years. Multimorbidity had a median exclusion proportion of 91·1% (IQR 88·9-91·8) and median prevalence of 41·0% (IQR 34·9-46·0). Concomitant medication use had a median exclusion proportion of 52·5% (IQR 50·0-53·7) and a median prevalence of 94·3% (IQR 84·3-97·2), and polypharmacy had a median prevalence of 47·7% (IQR 38·0-56·1). Population trends show increasing multimorbidity with age and consistently high polypharmacy across age groups. Populations with cardiovascular or otorhinolaryngological comorbidities had the highest risk of having scarce treatment decision information. For the observational study, populations with cardiovascular or psychiatric comorbidities had highest risk of having scarce treatment decision information. Patients with dementia with an anti-dementia prescription and contraindicated cardiovascular condition had a higher risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1·20 [95% CI 1·13-1·28 ; p<0·0001]) compared with patients with dementia without a contraindicated cardiovascular condition. Patients with dementia with comorbid delirium (HR 1·25 [95% CI 1·06-1·48]; p<0·0088), intellectual disability (HR 2·72 [95% CI 1·53-4·81]; p=0·0006), and schizophrenia and schizotypal delusional disorders (HR 1·36 [95% CI 1·02-1·82]; p=0·036) had a higher risk of mortality compared with patients with dementia without these conditions. INTERPRETATION: Overly stringent RCT exclusion criteria do not appropriately account for the heterogeneity of vulnerable characteristics observed in real-world populations. Treatment decision information is scarce for such individuals, which might affect health outcomes. We discuss the challenges facing the inclusivity of such individuals and highlight the strength of real-world evidence as an integrative solution in complementing RCTs and increasing the completeness of evidence-based medicine assessments in evaluating the effectiveness of treatment decisions. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Great Ormond Street Hospital Biomedical Research Centre, Academy of Medical Sciences, and the University College London Overseas Research Scholarship.

Depression, anxiety, substance misuse and self-harm in children and young people with rare chronic liver disease.

The burden of mental illness in young people with chronic liver disease is not known. In this population cohort study in England, we identified 358 individuals (aged ≤25 years) diagnosed with autoimmune hepatitis or liver disease related to cystic fibrosis and 1541 propensity-score-matched controls. By the first year of follow-up, the cumulative burden of psychiatric events in participants with liver disease was high compared with controls: anxiety disorder (6.87 per 100 individuals [95% CI 4.00-9.73] v. 2.22 [95% CI 1.37-3.07]), depression (5.10 [95% CI 2.83-7.37] v. 0.86 [95% CI 0.53-1.19]), substance misuse (10.61 [95% CI 9.50-11.73] v. 1.23 [95% CI 0.71-1.75]) and self-harm (3.09 [95% CI 1.12-5.05] v. 0.20 [95% CI 0.07-0.33]). Participants with liver disease had a 2-fold increase (OR = 1.94, 95% CI 1.45-2.58), a 2.5-fold increase (OR = 2.59, 95% CI 1.91-3.50) and 4.4-fold increase (OR = 4.44; 95% CI 3.46-5.71) in the risk of anxiety, depression and substance misuse, respectively. These findings highlight the need for effective intervention in psychiatric disorders in young people with rare liver disease.

Application of ensemble clustering and survival tree analysis for identifying prognostic clinicogenomic features in patients with colorectal cancer from the 100,000 Genomes Project.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to employ ensemble clustering and tree-based risk model approaches to identify interactions between clinicogenomic features for colorectal cancer using the 100,000 Genomes Project. RESULTS: Among the 2211 patients with colorectal cancer (mean age of diagnosis: 67.7; 59.7% male), 16.3%, 36.3%, 39.0% and 8.4% had stage 1, 2, 3 and 4 cancers, respectively. Almost every patient had surgery (99.7%), 47.4% had chemotherapy, 7.6% had radiotherapy and 1.4% had immunotherapy. On average, tumour mutational burden (TMB) was 18 mutations/Mb and 34.4%, 31.3% and 25.7% of patients had structural or copy number mutations in KRAS, BRAF and NRAS, respectively. In the fully adjusted Cox model, patients with advanced cancer [stage 3 hazard ratio (HR) = 3.2; p < 0.001; stage 4 HR = 10.2; p < 0.001] and those who had immunotherapy (HR = 1.8; p < 0.04) or radiotherapy (HR = 1.5; p < 0.02) treatment had a higher risk of dying. The ensemble clustering approach generated four distinct clusters where patients in cluster 2 had the best survival outcomes (1-year: 98.7%; 2-year: 96.7%; 3-year: 93.0%) while patients in cluster 3 (1-year: 87.9; 2-year: 70.0%; 3-year: 53.1%) had the worst outcomes. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log rank test revealed that the clusters were separated into distinct prognostic groups (p < 0.0001). Survival tree or recursive partitioning analyses were performed to further explore risk groups within each cluster. Among patients in cluster 2, for example, interactions between cancer stage, grade, radiotherapy, TMB, BRAF mutation status were identified. Patients with stage 4 cancer and TMB ≥ 1.6 mutations/Mb had 4 times higher risk of dying relative to the baseline hazard in that cluster.

Antithrombotic therapy in patients with liver disease: population-based insights on variations in prescribing trends, adherence, persistence and impact on stroke and bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Patients with liver disease have complex haemostasis and due to such contraindications, landmark randomised controlled trials investigating antithrombotic medicines have often excluded these patients. As a result, there has been limited consensus on the safety, efficacy and monitoring practices of anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy in patients with liver disease. This study aims to investigate prescribing prevalence, adherence, persistence and impact of adherence on bleeding and stroke risk in people with and without liver disease taking anticoagulants and antiplatelets. METHODS: We employed a population-based cohort consisting of person-level linked records from primary care, secondary care and the death registry. The cohort consisted of 3,929,596 adults aged ≥ 30 years during the study period of 1998 to 2020 and registered with an NHS general practitioner in England. The primary outcome was prescribing prevalence, adherence to and persistence with anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy comparing patients with and without liver disease. Risk factors for non-adherence and non-persistence were analysed using multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression. Impact of adherence on bleeding and ischaemic stroke was assessed. FINDINGS: Among patients with any of the six liver diseases (ALD, autoimmune liver disease, cirrhosis, HBV, HCV and NAFLD), we identified 4,237 individuals with incident atrial fibrillation (indication for anticoagulants) and 4,929 individuals with incident myocardial infarction, transient ischaemic attack, unstable angina or peripheral arterial disease (indication for antiplatelets). Among patients without liver disease, 321,510 and 386,643 individuals were identified as having indications for anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy, respectively. Among drug-naïve individuals, prescribing prevalence was lower in patients with liver disease compared with individuals without liver disease: anticoagulants (20.6% [806/3,921] vs. 33.5% [103,222/307,877]) and antiplatelets (56.2% [2,207/3,927] vs. 71.1% [249,258/350,803]). Primary non-adherence rates (stopping after one prescription) were higher in patients with liver disease, compared with those without liver disease: anticoagulants (7.9% [64/806] vs. 4.7% [4,841/103,222]) and antiplatelets (6.2% [137/2,207] vs. 4.4% [10,993/249,258]). Among individuals who were not primary non-adherent and had at least 12 months of follow-up, patients with liver disease however had a higher one-year adherence rate: anticoagulants (33.1% [208/628] vs. 29.4% [26,615/90,569]) and antiplatelets (40.9% [743/1,818] vs. 34.4% [76,834/223,154]). Likelihood of non-adherence was lower in apixaban and rivaroxaban (relative to warfarin) and lower in clopidogrel (relative to aspirin). Increased comorbidity burden (by CHA2DS2VASc score) was associated with decreased risk of non-adherence and non-persistence with anticoagulants. Overall rates of 'non-adherent, non-persistent' were highest in warfarin (compared with apixaban and rivaroxaban) and aspirin (compared with clopidogrel or dipyridamole) in patients with and without liver disease. Among patients without liver disease, not taking antithrombotic medications for >3 months was associated with a higher risk of stroke, however, adherence to these medications was also associated with a small increase in risk of bleeding. Patients with liver disease (when compared with those without liver disease) had higher risks of stroke, especially when they stopped taking antiplatelets for >3 months. Patients with liver disease who were adherent to antiplatelets, however, had a higher risk of bleeding compared with patients without liver disease. INTERPRETATION: Use of antithrombotic medicines in patients with and without liver disease is suboptimal with heterogeneity across medicines. As patients with liver disease are excluded from major randomised trials for these drugs, our results provide real-world evidence that may inform medicine optimisation strategies. We outline challenges and opportunities for tackling non-adherence, which begins with understanding patients' views of medicines to help them make informed decisions about appropriate use. FUNDING: AGL is supported by funding from the Wellcome Trust (204841/Z/16/Z), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre (BRC714/HI/RW/101440), NIHR Great Ormond Street Hospital Biomedical Research Centre (19RX02), the Health Data Research UK Better Care Catalyst Award (CFC0125) and the Academy of Medical Sciences (SBF006\1084). The funders have no role in the writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication.

The hypoxic tumour microenvironment: A safe haven for immunosuppressive cells and a therapeutic barrier to overcome.

Dating back to the seminal work of Paul Ehrlich, the idea of harnessing our immune system to eliminate cancerous cells is now over a century old. In the presence of a functional immune system that so efficiently guards the host against developing neoplasms, tumour cells must evolve sophisticated strategies to escape immune destruction in order to give rise to clinically detectable cancers. A new way of treating cancer would thus be to target the immune system itself rather than the tumour, and extensive studies in randomised trials have cemented the possibility of using immunotherapy for treating advanced-stage cancers. Immunotherapy, however, is only tolerated in a minority of patients and in many cases, patients suffer from adverse immune-related reactions when the immune system goes into overdrive. A primary barrier thwarting the development of effective immunotherapy seems to coalesce into the peculiarities of the tumour microenvironment for which hypoxia is a key feature. Here, we review emerging themes on how hypoxia contributes to immune suppression and obstructs anti-tumour effector cell functions. We discuss the challenges and opportunities relating to the potential for dually targeting hypoxia and the immune system to promote durable and favourable responses in cancer patients.

Estimated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer services and excess 1-year mortality in people with cancer and multimorbidity: near real-time data on cancer care, cancer deaths and a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer care services and overall (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer. METHODS: We employed near real-time weekly data on cancer care to determine the adverse effect of the pandemic on cancer services. We also used these data, together with national death registrations until June 2020 to model deaths, in excess of background (pre-COVID-19) mortality, in people with cancer. Background mortality risks for 24 cancers with and without COVID-19-relevant comorbidities were obtained from population-based primary care cohort (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) on 3 862 012 adults in England. RESULTS: Declines in urgent referrals (median=-70.4%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-41.5%) to a nadir (lowest point) in the pandemic were observed. By 31 May, these declines have only partially recovered; urgent referrals (median=-44.5%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-31.2%). There were short-term excess death registrations for cancer (without COVID-19), with peak relative risk (RR) of 1.17 at week ending on 3 April. The peak RR for all-cause deaths was 2.1 from week ending on 17 April. Based on these findings and recent literature, we modelled 40% and 80% of cancer patients being affected by the pandemic in the long-term. At 40% affected, we estimated 1-year total (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer as between 7165 and 17 910, using RRs of 1.2 and 1.5, respectively, where 78% of excess deaths occured in patients with ≥1 comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Dramatic reductions were detected in the demand for, and supply of, cancer services which have not fully recovered with lockdown easing. These may contribute, over a 1-year time horizon, to substantial excess mortality among people with cancer and multimorbidity. It is urgent to understand how the recovery of general practitioner, oncology and other hospital services might best mitigate these long-term excess mortality risks.