Evaluating the Financial Vulnerability of a Major Electric Utility in the Southeastern U.S. to Drought under Climate Change and an Evolving Generation Mix.

There is increasing recognition of the vulnerability of electric power systems to drought and the potential for both climate change and a shifting generation mix to alter this vulnerability. Nonetheless, the considerable research in this area has not been synthesized to inform electric utilities with respect to a key factor that influences their decisions about critical infrastructure: financial risk for shareholders. This study addresses this gap in knowledge by developing a systems framework for assessing the financial exposure of utilities to drought, with further consideration of the effects of climate change and a shifting generation mix. We then apply this framework to a major utility in the Southeastern U.S. Results suggest that extreme drought could cause profit shortfalls of more than $100 million if water temperature regulations are strictly enforced. However, even losses of this magnitude would not significantly impact returns for shareholders. This may inadvertently reduce pressure internally at utilities to incorporate drought vulnerability into long-term strategic planning, potentially leaving utilities and their customers at greater risk in the future.

The impacts of wind power integration on sub-daily variation in river flows downstream of hydroelectric dams.

Due to their operational flexibility, hydroelectric dams are ideal candidates to compensate for the intermittency and unpredictability of wind energy production. However, more coordinated use of wind and hydropower resources may exacerbate the impacts dams have on downstream environmental flows, that is, the timing and magnitude of water flows needed to sustain river ecosystems. In this paper, we examine the effects of increased (i.e., 5%, 15%, and 25%) wind market penetration on prices for electricity and reserves, and assess the potential for altered price dynamics to disrupt reservoir release schedules at a hydroelectric dam and cause more variable and unpredictable hourly flow patterns (measured in terms of the Richards-Baker Flashiness (RBF) index). Results show that the greatest potential for wind energy to impact downstream flows occurs at high (∼25%) wind market penetration, when the dam sells more reserves in order to exploit spikes in real-time electricity prices caused by negative wind forecast errors. Nonetheless, compared to the initial impacts of dam construction (and the dam's subsequent operation as a peaking resource under baseline conditions) the marginal effects of any increased wind market penetration on downstream flows are found to be relatively minor.

Sources and resources: importance of nutrients, resource allocation, and ecology in microalgal cultivation for lipid accumulation.

Regardless of current market conditions and availability of conventional petroleum sources, alternatives are needed to circumvent future economic and environmental impacts from continued exploration and harvesting of conventional hydrocarbons. Diatoms and green algae (microalgae) are eukaryotic photoautotrophs that can utilize inorganic carbon (e.g., CO2) as a carbon source and sunlight as an energy source, and many microalgae can store carbon and energy in the form of neutral lipids. In addition to accumulating useful precursors for biofuels and chemical feed stocks, the use of autotrophic microorganisms can further contribute to reduced CO2 emissions through utilization of atmospheric CO2. Because of the inherent connection between carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in biological systems, macronutrient deprivation has been proven to significantly enhance lipid accumulation in different diatom and algae species. However, much work is needed to understand the link between carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in controlling resource allocation at different levels of biological resolution (cellular versus ecological). An improved understanding of the relationship between the effects of N, P, and micronutrient availability on carbon resource allocation (cell growth versus lipid storage) in microalgae is needed in conjunction with life cycle analysis. This mini-review will briefly discuss the current literature on the use of nutrient deprivation and other conditions to control and optimize microalgal growth in the context of cell and lipid accumulation for scale-up processes.

Obtaining natural-like flow releases in diverted river reaches from simple riparian benefit economic models.

We propose a theoretical river modeling framework for generating variable flow patterns in diverted-streams (i.e., no reservoir). Using a simple economic model and the principle of equal marginal utility in an inverse fashion we first quantify the benefit of the water that goes to the environment in relation to that of the anthropic activity. Then, we obtain exact expressions for optimal water allocation rules between the two competing uses, as well as the related statistical distributions. These rules are applied using both synthetic and observed streamflow data, to demonstrate that this approach may be useful in 1) generating more natural flow patterns in the river reach downstream of the diversion, thus reducing the ecodeficit; 2) obtaining a more enlightened economic interpretation of Minimum Flow Release (MFR) strategies, and; 3) comparing the long-term costs and benefits of variable versus MFR policies and showing the greater ecological sustainability of this new approach.

Assessment of E. coli partitioning behavior via both culture-based and qPCR methods.

Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) offers a rapid, highly sensitive analytical alternative to the traditional culture-based techniques of microbial enumeration typically used in water quality monitoring. Before qPCR can be widely applied within surface water monitoring programs and stormwater assessment research, the relationships between microbial concentrations measured by qPCR and culture-based methods must be assessed across a range of water types. Previous studies investigating fecal indicator bacteria quantification using molecular and culture-based techniques have compared measures of total concentration, but have not examined particle-associated microorganisms, which may be more important from a transport perspective, particularly during the calibration of predictive water quality models for watershed management purposes. This study compared total, free-phase, and particle-associated Escherichia coli concentrations as determined by the Colilert defined substrate method and qPCR targeting the uidA gene in stream grab samples partitioned via a calibrated centrifugation technique. Free-phase concentrations detected through qPCR were significantly higher than those detected using Colilert although total concentrations were statistically equivalent, suggesting a source of analytical bias. Although a specimen processing complex was used to identify and correct for inhibition of the qPCR reaction, high particle concentrations may have resulted in underestimation of total cell counts, particularly at low concentrations. Regardless, qPCR-based techniques will likely have an important future role in stormwater assessment and management.

Systemic Financial Risk Arising from Residential Flood Losses.

Direct damage from flooding at residential properties has typically been categorized as insured, with liabilities accruing to insurers, or uninsured, with costs accruing to property owners. However, residential flooding can also expose lenders and local governments to financial risk, though the distribution of this risk is not well understood. Flood losses are not limited to direct damages, but also include indirect effects such as decreases in property values, which can be substantial, though are rarely well quantified. The combination of direct damage and property value decrease influences rates of mortgage default and property abandonment in the wake of a flood, creating financial risk. In this research, property-level data on sales, mortgages, and insurance claims are used in combination with machine learning techniques and geostatistical methods to provide estimates of flood losses that are then utilized to evaluate the risk of default and abandonment in eastern North Carolina following Hurricane Florence (2018). Within the study area, Hurricane Florence generated $366M in observed insured damages and an estimated $1.77B in combined uninsured damages and property value decreases. Property owners, lenders, and local governments were exposed to an additional $562M in potential losses due to increased rates of default and abandonment. Areas with lower pre-flood property values were exposed to greater risk than areas with higher valued properties. Results suggest more highly resolved estimates of a flooding event's systemic financial risk may be useful in developing improved flood resilience strategies.

Water, environment, and socioeconomic justice in California: A multi-benefit cropland repurposing framework.

Low-income, rural frontline communities of California's Central Valley experience environmental and socioeconomic injustice, water insecurity, extremely poor air quality, and lack of fundamental infrastructure (sewage, green areas, health services), which makes them less resilient. Many communities depend financially on agriculture, while water scarcity and associated policy may trigger farmland retirement further hindering socioeconomic opportunities. Here we propose a multi-benefit framework to repurpose cropland in buffers inside and around (400-m and 1600-m buffers) 154 rural disadvantaged communities of the Central Valley to promote socioeconomic opportunities, environmental benefits, and business diversification. We estimate the potential for (1) reductions in water and pesticide use, nitrogen leaching, and nitrogen gas emissions, (2) managed aquifer recharge, and (3) economic and employment impacts associated with clean industries and solar energy. Retiring cropland within 1600-m buffers can result in reductions in water use of 2.18 km3/year, nitrate leaching into local aquifers of 105,500 t/year, greenhouse gas emissions of 2,232,000 t CO2-equivalent/year, and 5388 t pesticides/year, with accompanying losses in agricultural revenue of US$4213 million/year and employment of 25,682 positions. Buffer repurposing investments of US$27 million/year per community for ten years show potential to generate US$101 million/year per community (total US$15,578 million/year) for 30 years and 407 new jobs/year (total 62,697 jobs/year) paying 67 % more than prior farmworker jobs. In the San Joaquin Valley (southern Central Valley), where groundwater overdraft averages 2.3 km3/year, potential water use reduction is 1.8 km3/year. We have identified 99 communities with surficial soils adequate for aquifer recharge and canals/rivers within 1600 m. This demonstrates the potential of managed aquifer recharge in buffered zones to substantially reduce overdraft. The buffers framework shows that well-planned land repurposing near disadvantaged communities can create multiple benefits for farmers and industry stakeholders, while improving quality of life in disadvantaged communities and producing positive externalities for society.

Comparison of the presence and partitioning behavior of indicator organisms and Salmonella spp. in an urban watershed.

The appropriateness of indicator organisms as surrogates for human pathogens in water quality modeling is dependent on similarities in both presence and transport behavior; however, very little data relating indicator and bacterial pathogen transport behavior in receiving waters is available. In this study observations of presence, partitioning behavior (i.e. association with settleable particles) and removal by upland detention basins were used to assess the suitability of six indicator organisms as surrogates for Salmonella spp. bacteria in an urban watershed. The fecal indicator bacteria (fecal coliforms, E. coli and enterococci) were most closely correlated with Salmonella in terms of presence and partitioning behavior (25-35% associated with settleable particles on average); however, further resolution of the variability associated with Salmonella partitioning is required. Higher removal of particle-associated microbes relative to the total microbial concentration by the detention ponds suggests that sedimentation may be an important removal mechanism. However, large fluctuations in pond performance between storm events and occasional net microbial exports in effluents indicate that these best management practices (BMPs), as currently implemented, will be unlikely to achieve water quality objectives.

Identification of particle size classes inhibiting protozoan recovery from surface water samples via U.S. Environmental Protection Agency method 1623.

Giardia species recovery by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency method 1,623 appears significantly impacted by a wide size range (2 to 30 microm) of particles in water and organic matter. Cryptosporidium species recovery seems negatively correlated only with smaller (2 to 10 microm), presumably inorganic particles. Results suggest constituents and mechanisms interfering with method performance may differ by protozoan type.

Reducing the costs of meeting regional water demand through risk-based transfer agreements.

Transfers of treated water among inter-connected utilities is becoming more common as the cost of developing new supplies grows, and transfer agreements require well developed rules describing when and how much water will be transferred. The nature of the decision rules governing an agreement must also be coordinated with respect to the treatment and conveyance capacity required to execute the transfers. This study explores different combinations of infrastructure and agreement type that define three different transfer programs, describing the frequency and volume of transfers associated with each, as well as their costs. The agreements are described in terms of the type of decision rule employed: Take-or-Pay, where the timing and quantity of transfers is fixed; Days of Supply Remaining (DSR), which uses a static hydrologic indicator to trigger transfers; and Risk-of-Failure, a probability-based decision rule that involves consideration of both supply and demand. This analysis is conducted within the context of the Research Triangle area of North Carolina (USA), a rapidly growing area that is beginning to approach the practical limits of water resource development. The Risk-of-Failure agreement is shown to reduce the average volume of transfers by over 80% compared to a Take-or-Pay agreement and by roughly half relative to the DSR agreement, leading to significant cost reductions. A utility's willingness to accept something less than guaranteed access to a specified quantity of water (i.e. an interruption) also has a significant impact on cost. Interruptions do not necessarily lead to lower reliability, but rather to the purchasing utility acquiring more water during off-peak periods when the seller has excess treatment capacity available. The lowest cost guaranteed agreement is 40-50% more expensive than the lowest cost interruptible contract.

Sediment-water exchange of Vibrio sp. and fecal indicator bacteria: implications for persistence and transport in the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, USA.

In estuaries, frequent resuspension and deposition of sediment complicate bacterial transport model development by transporting particle-attached bacteria and possibly inducing bacterial responses, such as growth, degradation, or changes in attachment. In order to better characterize these dynamics, observations were made in the Neuse River Estuary (NRE) using the combination of an in situ sampler to monitor the water column and sediment cores to monitor sediment concentrations. Two allochthonous bacteria, Escherichia coli (EC) and Enterococcus sp. (ENT), were selected as proxies for fecal contamination from stormwater runoff. Vibrio sp. (VIB), native to the NRE, was also observed as an autochthonous bacterial group that includes potentially pathogenic species. Two sampling periods were identified as dominated by different suspension types: runoff and resuspension. Despite this difference, several bacterial measures remained comparable between sampling periods. In bottom water, VIB concentration was correlated with salinity and ENT concentration was correlated with turbidity. Differences were observed for EC, where higher concentrations were found in hypoxic waters and sediment during the resuspension period. In the sediment, EC and VIB concentrations significantly increased following the passage of Hurricane Ophelia in September 2005. Throughout this study, all bacterial groups showed evidence of persistence in sediment, suggesting that sediment resuspension represents a significant source of bacteria to the water column.

Comparing the partitioning behavior of Giardia and Cryptosporidium with that of indicator organisms in stormwater runoff.

Microbial association with particles can significantly affect the fate and transport characteristics of microbes in aquatic systems as particle-associated organisms will be less mobile in the environment than their free phase (i.e. unattached) counterparts. As such, similarities or dissimilarities in the partitioning behavior of indicator organisms and pathogens may have an impact on the suitability of a particular indicator to act as a surrogate for a pathogen. This research analyzed the partitioning behavior of two pathogens (Cryptosporidium, Giardia) and several common indicator organisms (fecal coliform, Escherichia coli, Enterococci, Clostridium perfringens spores, and coliphage) in natural waters under both dry and wet weather conditions. Samples were taken from several streams in two distinct sampling phases: (i) single grab samples; and (ii) intrastorm samples obtained throughout the duration of four storms. Partitioning behavior varied by microbial type, with 15-30% of bacterial indicators (fecal coliform, E. coli, and Enterococci) associated with settleable particles compared to 50% for C. perfringens spores. Both pathogens exhibited similar levels of particle association during dry weather (roughly 30%), with increased levels observed during wet weather events (Giardia to 60% and Cryptosporidium to 40%). The settling velocities of particle-associated microbes were also estimated, with those of the bacterial indicators (fecal coliform, E. coli, and Enterococci), as well as C. perfringens spores, being similar to that of the Giardia and Cryptosporidium, suggesting these organisms may exhibit similar transport behavior. With respect to intrastorm analysis, the highest microbial concentrations, in both particle-associated and free phase, occurred during the earlier stages of a storm. The total loadings of both indicators and pathogens were also estimated over the course of individual storms.

Intra-storm variability in microbial partitioning and microbial loading rates.

Association with particles in the water column can have a significant impact on microbial fate and transport. This study analyzed multiple stormwater samples taken throughout the duration of three separate storms (at two different sites) to evaluate the fraction of microbes partitioning to denser "settleable" particles and to examine how partitioning behavior varied over the course of a storm. Intra-storm sampling also allowed for estimates of microbial loading rates (both total and particle-associated) and cumulative storm-induced microbial load. Five different indicator organisms were examined, with the fraction of microbes associated with settleable particles assessed via a calibrated centrifugation method. Partitioning behavior varied across microorganism type, with an average of 40% of fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, and enterococci associating with settleable particles, compared to approximately 65% of Clostridium perfringens spores and only 13% of total coliphage. Partitioning remained fairly constant for each type of organism throughout storm events. Nonetheless, higher concentrations of both settleable particles and microbes entering the water column soon after the onset of a storm led to higher loading rates of settleable microbes in the storm's earliest stages, a trend that could have important implications for the design of stormwater management structures (e.g., detention basins). Estimates of cumulative storm-induced microbial loading suggested that one day's worth of storm loading can be the equivalent of months, or even years, of dry-weather loading.

Evaluating the relative impacts of operational and financial factors on the competitiveness of an algal biofuel production facility.

Algal biofuels are becoming more economically competitive due to technological advances and government subsidies offering tax benefits and lower cost financing. These factors are linked, however, as the value of technical advances is affected by modeling assumptions regarding the growth conditions, process design, and financing of the production facility into which novel techniques are incorporated. Two such techniques, related to algal growth and dewatering, are evaluated in representative operating and financing scenarios using an integrated techno-economic model. Results suggest that these techniques can be valuable under specified conditions, but also that investment subsidies influence cost competitive facility design by incentivizing development of more capital intensive facilities (e.g., favoring hydrothermal liquefaction over transesterification-based facilities). Evaluating novel techniques under a variety of operational and financial scenarios highlights the set of site-specific conditions in which technical advances are most valuable, while also demonstrating the influence of subsidies linked to capital intensity.

Microbial partitioning to settleable particles in stormwater.

The degree to which microbes in the water column associate with settleable particles has important implications for microbial transport in receiving waters, as well as for microbial removal via sedimentation (i.e. detention basins). The partitioning behavior of several bacterial, protozoan and viral indicator organisms is explored in three urban streams under both storm and dry weather conditions. The fraction of organisms associated with settleable particles in stormwater is estimated through use of a centrifugation technique which is calibrated using suspensions of standard particles (e.g., glass, latex). The fraction of organisms associated with settleable particles varies by type of microbe, and the partitioning behavior of each organism generally changes between dry weather and storm conditions. Bacterial indicator organisms (fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, enterococci) exhibited relatively consistent behavior, with an average of 20-35% of organisms associated with these particles in background samples and 30-55% in storm samples. Clostridium perfringens spores exhibited the highest average level of particle association, with storm values varying from 50% to 70%. Results related to total coliphage partitioning were more variable, with 20-60% associated with particles during storms. These estimates should be valuable in surface water quality modeling efforts, many of which currently assume that all microbes exist as free (unattached) organisms.