Evaluation of Health Promotion Program at the Community Level in Mexico: Is the Program Efficient and Effective?

CONTEXT: Health promotion programs have been encouraged in the Americas since 1990. In Mexico, health program promotion at the community level was implemented by the Ministry of Health in 2001 to encourage community health status improvement. Despite the longtime of its implementation, evaluations of its efficiency and effectiveness are scarce. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficiency of the Healthy Environments and Communities Program (HECP) through 2 means: (1) efficiency of the implementation and (2) technical efficiency, as well as to evaluate its effectiveness. SETTING: Target communities of the HECP of 32 Mexican states during 2013-2017. The HECP developed community interventions to improve community organization, health behaviors, and family and communitarian sanitation. METHODOLOGY: We conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate the efficiency of HECP implementation and estimated the inclusion of target communities (focalization index), the retention of communities (continuity index), and the desertion of communities in the program (desertion index). To evaluate the adequate use of the program resources (technical efficiency), we used data-enveloped analysis and the Tobit regression model to identify external factors that can influence results. Finally, to evaluate the program's effectiveness, we estimated the index of the communities that improved their health indicators and were certified as healthy (community certification). RESULTS: The median rate of focalization was 3.44 (1.31-85.13); the continuity of communities' rate was 0.50 (0.16-2.67). Regarding technical efficiency to reach healthy communities, only 2 states reached the optimal efficiency (score 1); where the efficiency was adjusted for external factors, 6 states reached a score of 1. The median of global effectiveness was 0.19 (0.01-0.78). We found differences in efficiency and effectiveness scores among states. CONCLUSION: We found lower efficiency of the implementation and technical efficiency, as well as poor effectiveness of the program to reach healthy communities. To achieve HECP purpose, it is necessary to revise its guidelines, improve its strategies to work in communities, and establish the right mechanisms to monitor its implementation. It is essential to focus on the resources used to enhance technical efficiency and effectiveness at the community level.

Preferences for Conditional Economic Incentives to Improve Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Adherence: A Discrete Choice Experiment Among Male Sex Workers in Mexico.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective in preventing HIV but requires sustained adherence. Conditional economic incentives (CEIs) can improve medication-taking behaviors, yet preferences for programs that employ CEIs to increase PrEP use among male sex workers (MSWs) have not been investigated. We conducted a discrete choice experiment in Mexico City to elicit stated preferences for a CEI-based PrEP adherence program among MSWs. Respondents expressed their preferences for different program characteristics: incentive amount; incentive format; incentive type; and adherence-verification method. We used a random utility logit model to estimate the relative importance of each attribute and estimated willingness-to-pay. MSWs preferred a higher, fixed incentive, with PrEP adherence measured via hair sampling. MSWs were willing to forego up to 21% of their potential maximum CEI amount to ensure receipt of a fixed payment. MSWs are highly willing to accept a CEI-based intervention for PrEP adherence, if offered along with fixed payments.

RESUMEN: La profilaxis previa a la exposición (PrEP) es muy eficaz para prevenir el VIH, pero requiere una adherencia sostenida. Los incentivos económicos condicionales (IEC) pueden mejorar los comportamientos de toma de medicamentos, sin embargo, no se han investigado las preferencias por los programas que emplean IEC para aumentar el uso de PrEP entre los trabajadores sexuales masculinos (TSM). Realizamos un experimento de elección discreta con TSM en la Ciudad de México para obtener preferencias declaradas para un programa de adherencia a la PrEP basado en IEC. Los participantes expresaron sus preferencias en cuanto a diferentes características: monto del incentivo; formato del incentivo; tipo de incentivo; y método de verificación de la adherencia. Utilizamos un modelo logit de utilidad aleatoria para estimar la importancia relativa de cada atributo y la disposición a pagar estimada (DAP). Los TSM prefirieron un incentivo fijo más alto, con la adherencia a la PrEP medida a través de muestras de cabello. Los TSM estaban dispuestos a renunciar hasta el 21% de su monto máximo potencial de IEC para garantizar la recepción de un pago fijo. Los TSM están muy dispuestos a aceptar una intervención basada en IEC para la adherencia a la PrEP, si se ofrece junto con pagos fijos.

Assessing costs of a hypertension program in primary care: evidence from the HEARTS program in Mexico.

Objective: In 2021, Mexico launched the HEARTS program to improve the prevention and control of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in 20 primary care facilities in the states of Chiapas and Yucatán. This study projects the annual cost of program implementation and discusses budgetary implications for scaling up the program. Methods: We obtained district-level data on treatment protocols, medication costs, and other resources required to prevent and treat CVD. We used the HEARTS Costing Tool to estimate total and per-patient costs. A "partial implementation" scenario calculated the costs of implementing HEARTS if existing pharmacological treatment protocols are left in place. The second scenario, "full implementation," examined costs if programs use HEARTS pharmacological protocol. Results: Respectively in the partial and full implementation scenarios, total annual costs to implement and operate HEARTS were $260 023 ($32.1 per patient/year) and $255 046 ($31.5 per patient/year) in Chiapas, and $1 000 059 ($41.3 per patient/year) and $1 013 835 ($43.3 per patient/year) in Yucatán. In Chiapas, adopting HEARTS standardized treatment protocols resulted in a 9.7 % reduction in annual medication expenditures relative to maintaining status-quo treatment approaches. In Yucatán, adoption was $12 875 more expensive, in part because HEARTS hypertension treatment regimens were more intensive than status quo regimens. Conclusion: HEARTS in the Americas offers a standardized strategy to treating and controlling CVD risk factors. In Mexico, approaches that may lead to improved program affordability include adoption of the recommended HEARTS treatment protocols with preferred medications and task shifting of services from physicians to nurses and other providers.

Building the health-economic case for scaling up the WHO-HEARTS hypertension control package in low- and middle-income countries.

Generally, hypertension control programs are cost-effective, including in low- and middle-income countries, but country governments and civil society are not likely to support hypertension control programs unless value is demonstrated in terms of public health benefits, budget impact, and value-for-investment for the individual country context. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) established a standard, simplified Global HEARTS approach to hypertension control, including preferred antihypertensive medicines and blood pressure measurement devices. The objective of this study is to report on health economic studies of HEARTS hypertension control package cost (especially medication costs), cost-effectiveness, and budget impact and describe mathematical models designed to translate hypertension control program data into the optimal approach to hypertension care service delivery and financing, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Early results suggest that HEARTS hypertension control interventions are either cost-saving or cost-effective, that the HEARTS package is affordable at between US$ 18-44 per person treated per year, and that antihypertensive medicines could be priced low enough to reach a global standard of an average

En general, los programas de control de la hipertensión son costo-eficaces, incluso en los países de ingresos bajos y medios. Aun así, es poco probable que los gobiernos nacionales y la sociedad civil apoyen los programas de control de la hipertensión a menos que se demuestre su valor en términos de beneficios para la salud pública, impacto presupuestario y valor de la inversión para el contexto individual del país. La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS) implementaron la iniciativa HEARTS, un enfoque mundial estandarizado y simplificado para el control de la hipertensión, que incluye los medicamentos antihipertensivos y los dispositivos de medición de la presión arterial de preferencia. El objetivo de este estudio es informar sobre los estudios en el ámbito de la economía de la salud relativos al costo de las medidas de control de la hipertensión previstas en HEARTS (especialmente, de los medicamentos), la costo-efectividad y el impacto presupuestario, así como describir los modelos matemáticos diseñados para traducir los datos de este programa en un enfoque óptimo para la prestación y el financiamiento de los servicios de atención de la hipertensión, especialmente en países de ingresos medianos y bajos. Los primeros resultados indican que las intervenciones de HEARTS para el control de la hipertensión son de bajo costo o costo-eficaces, que el conjunto de medidas HEARTS es asequible, a un precio que oscila entre US$ 18 y US$ 44 al año por paciente tratado, y que los medicamentos antihipertensivos podrían tener un precio lo suficientemente bajo como para alcanzar un estándar medio mundial de

Geralmente, os programas de controle de hipertensão são custo-efetivos, inclusive em países de baixa e média renda, mas os governos dos países e a sociedade civil provavelmente não apoiarão tais programas a menos que demonstrem valor em termos de benefícios à saúde pública, impacto orçamentário e retorno sobre o investimento no contexto individual do país. A Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e a Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) criaram a Global HEARTS, uma abordagem padrão e simplificada ao controle da hipertensão arterial, que inclui medicamentos anti-hipertensivos preferidos e dispositivos para aferição da pressão arterial preferidos. O objetivo deste estudo é relatar os estudos de economia em saúde que analisaram o custo (especialmente custos de medicamentos), custo-benefício e impacto orçamentário do pacote HEARTS para controle da hipertensão e descrever modelos matemáticos elaborados para traduzir os dados do programa de controle de hipertensão em uma abordagem ideal para a prestação e financiamento de serviços de atenção às pessoas com hipertensão, especialmente em países de baixa e média renda. Os primeiros resultados sugerem que as intervenções HEARTS para controle da hipertensão são de baixo custo ou custo-efetivas, que o pacote HEARTS é acessível (custando de US$ 18 a 44 por pessoa tratada por ano) e que o preço dos medicamentos anti-hipertensivos poderia ser baixo o suficiente para atingir uma média global de

Tackling maternal mortality by improving technical efficiency in the production of primary health services: longitudinal evidence from the Mexican case.

Ensuring regular and timely access to efficient and quality health services reduces the risk of maternal mortality. Specifically, improving technical efficiency (TE) can result in improved health outcomes. To date, no studies in Mexico have explored the connection of TE with either the production of maternal health services at the primary-care level or the maternal-mortality ratio (MMR) in populations without social security coverage. The present study combined data envelopment analysis (DEA), longitudinal data and selection bias correction methods with the purpose of obtaining original evidence on the impact of TE on the MMR during the period 2008-2015. The results revealed that MMR fell 0.36% (P < 0.01) for every percentage point increase in TE at the jurisdictional level or elasticity TE-MMR. This effect proved lower in highly marginalized jurisdictions and disappeared entirely in those with low- or medium-marginalization levels. Our findings also highlighted the relevance of certain social and economic aspects in the attainment of TE by jurisdictions. This clearly demonstrates the need for comprehensive, cross-cutting policies capable of modifying the structural conditions that generate vulnerability in specific population groups. In other words, achieving an effective and sustainable reduction in the MMR requires, inter alia, that the Mexican government review and update two essential elements: the criteria behind resource allocation and distribution, and the control mechanisms currently in place for executing and ensuring accountability in these two functions.

A spatio-temporal cluster analysis of technical efficiency in the production of outpatient maternal health services and its structural correlates in México.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the formation of spatial clusters of technical efficiency (TE) in the production of outpatient maternal health services in México for the period 2008 to 2015. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal analysis of administrative and structural data related to the 243 Mexican health jurisdictions. We use window data envelopment analysis and spatial and econometric techniques. Structural correlates of each TE cluster obtained were identified estimating a pooled multinomial logit model. RESULTS: We observed an increase in the overall TE, accompanied by a reduction in its standard deviation. Furthermore, we identified positive TE spatial dependence both globally and locally. Multiple regression analysis showed that the maximum-performance TE cluster was composed of health jurisdictions located in the North of México and characterized by social marginalization, a reduced indigenous population, and a low demand for maternal health services. CONCLUSIONS: The identification of TE clusters can provide elements to induce decision makers to innovative in ways of allocating resources and manage their utilization. In México as other low- and middle-income countries, it is key to develop targeting strategies to implement specific health services innovations putting to the population to be served at the front of the strategy. This implies testing new modalities to strengthen primary health services, the empowerment of community participation, the training and allocation of health personnel that could respond adequately to population's demand, and the active involvement of competent state and local authorities in the assessment of the results of these innovations.

Factors influencing the technical efficiency of diabetes care at primary care level in Mexico.

Diabetes prevalence is rising globally, especially in low- and middle-income countries like Mexico, posing challenges for healthcare systems that require efficient primary care to manage the disease. However, healthcare efficiency is influenced by factors beyond decision-makers, including socioeconomic and political conditions. This study aims to evaluate the technical efficiency of primary healthcare for diabetes patients in Mexico over a 12-year period and explore the impact of contextual variables on efficiency. A longitudinal analysis was conducted using administrative and socio-demographic data from 242 health jurisdictions between 2009 and 2020. Data envelopment analysis with bootstrapping and output orientation was used to measure the technical efficiency; health resources in infrastructure and human resources were used as inputs. As outcome, the number of patients receiving treatment for diabetes and the number of patients with controlled diabetes were considered. Machine learning algorithms were employed to analyse multiple factors affecting the provision of diabetes health services and assess heterogeneity and trends in efficiency across different health jurisdictions. The average technical efficiency in primary healthcare for diabetes patients was 0.44 (CI: 0.41-0.46) in 2009, reaching a peak of 0.71 (CI: 0.69-0.72) in 2016, and moderately declining to 0.60 (CI: 0.57-0.62) in 2020; these differences were statistically significant. The random forest analysis identified the marginalization index, primary healthcare coverage, proportion of indigenous population and demand for health services as the most influential variables in predicting efficiency levels. This research underscores the crucial need for the formulation of targeted public policies aimed at extending the scope of primary healthcare services, with a particular focus on addressing the unique challenges faced by marginalized and indigenous populations. According to our results, it is necessary that medical care management adjust to the specific demands and needs of these populations to guarantee equitable care in Mexico.

Incentivizing adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention: a randomized pilot trial among male sex workers in Mexico.

Low adherence to preventative medications against life-long health conditions is a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality. We implemented a pilot randomized controlled trial in Mexico to measure the extent to which conditional economic incentives help male sex workers increase their adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. We followed n = 110 male sex workers over 6 months. At each quarterly visit (at months 0, 3, and 6), all workers received a $10 transport reimbursement, a free 3-month PrEP supply, and completed socio-behavioral surveys. The primary outcome was an objective biomarker of medication adherence based on tenofovir (TFV) drug concentration levels in hair collected at each visit. Individuals randomized to the intervention received incentives based on a grading system as a function of PrEP adherence: those with high (> 0.043 ng/mg TFV concentration), medium (0.011 to 0.042 ng/mg), or low (< 0.011 ng/mg) adherence received $20, $10, or $0, respectively. Six-month pooled effects of incentives on PrEP adherence were analyzed using population-averaged gamma generalized estimating equation models. We estimated heterogeneous treatment effects by sex worker characteristics. The incentive intervention led to a 28.7% increase in hair antiretroviral concentration levels over 6 months consistent with increased PrEP adherence (p = 0.05). The effect of incentives on PrEP adherence was greater for male sex workers who were street-based (vs. internet) workers (p < 0.10). These pilot findings suggest that modest conditional economic incentives could be effective, at scale, for improving PrEP adherence among male sex workers, and should be tested in larger implementation trials. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03674983.

Can primary health care mitigate the effects of economic crises on child health in Latin America? An integrated multicountry evaluation and forecasting analysis.

BACKGROUND: Latin American and Caribbean countries are dealing with the combined challenges of pandemic-induced socicoeconomic stress and increasing public debt, potentially leading to reductions in welfare and health-care services, including primary care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of primary health-care coverage on child mortality in Latin America over the past two decades and to forecast the potential effects of primary health-care mitigation during the current economic crisis. METHODS: This multicountry study integrated retrospective impact evaluations in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico from 2000 to 2019 with forecasting models covering up to 2030. We estimated the impact of coverage of primary health care on mortality rates in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality) across different age groups and causes of death, adjusting for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health-care factors, with fixed-effects multivariable negative binomial models in 5647 municipalities with an adequate quality of vital statistics. We also performed several sensitivity and triangulation analyses. We integrated previous longitudinal datasets with validated dynamic microsimulation models and projected trends in under-5 mortality rates under alternative policy response scenarios until 2030. FINDINGS: High primary health-care coverage was associated with substantial reductions in post-neonatal mortality rates (rate ratio [RR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·71-0·74), toddler (ie, aged between 1 year and <5 years) mortality rates (0·75, 0·73-0·76), and under-5 mortality rates (0·81, 0·80-0·82), preventing 305 890 (95% CI 251 826-360 517) deaths of children younger than 5 years over the period 2000-19. High primary health-care coverage was also associated with lower under-5 mortality rates from nutritional deficiencies (RR 0·55, 95% CI 0·52-0·58), anaemia (0·64, 0·57-0·72), vaccine-preventable and vaccine-sensitive conditions (0·70, 0·68-0·72), and infectious gastroenteritis (0·78, 0·73-0·84). Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation response strategy implemented in the period 2020-30 that increases primary health-care coverage could reduce the under-5 mortality rate by up to 23% (RR 0·77, 95% CI 0·72-0·84) when compared with a fiscal austerity response, and this strategy would avoid 142 285 (95% CI 120 217-164 378) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico. INTERPRETATION: The improvement in primary health-care coverage in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico over the past two decades has substantially contributed to improving child survival. Expansion of primary health-care coverage should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health effects of the current economic crisis and to achieve Sustainable Development Goals related to child health. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Percutaneous Revascularization for Ischemic Left Ventricular Dysfunction: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the REVIVED-BCIS2 Trial.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is frequently undertaken in patients with ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The REVIVED (Revascularization for Ischemic Ventricular Dysfunction)-BCIS2 (British Cardiovascular Society-2) trial concluded that PCI did not reduce the incidence of all-cause death or heart failure hospitalization; however, patients assigned to PCI reported better initial health-related quality of life than those assigned to optimal medical therapy (OMT) alone. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of PCI+OMT compared with OMT alone. METHODS: REVIVED-BCIS2 was a prospective, multicenter UK trial, which randomized patients with severe ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction to either PCI+OMT or OMT alone. Health care resource use (including planned and unplanned revascularizations, medication, device implantation, and heart failure hospitalizations) and health outcomes data (EuroQol 5-dimension 5-level questionnaire) on each patient were collected at baseline and up to 8 years post-randomization. Resource use was costed using publicly available national unit costs. Within the trial, mean total costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated from the perspective of the UK health system. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using estimated mean costs and QALYs in both groups. Regression analysis was used to adjust for clinically relevant predictors. RESULTS: Between 2013 and 2020, 700 patients were recruited (mean age: PCI+OMT=70 years, OMT=68 years; male (%): PCI+OMT=87, OMT=88); median follow-up was 3.4 years. Over all follow-ups, patients undergoing PCI yielded similar health benefits at higher costs compared with OMT alone (PCI+OMT: 4.14 QALYs, £22 352; OMT alone: 4.16 QALYs, £15 569; difference: -0.015, £6782). For both groups, most health resource consumption occurred in the first 2 years post-randomization. Probabilistic results showed that the probability of PCI being cost-effective was 0. CONCLUSIONS: A minimal difference in total QALYs was identified between arms, and PCI+OMT was not cost-effective compared with OMT, given its additional cost. A strategy of routine PCI to treat ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction does not seem to be a justifiable use of health care resources in the United Kingdom. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01920048.

Current and Projected Mortality and Hospitalization Rates Associated With Conditional Cash Transfer, Social Pension, and Primary Health Care Programs in Brazil, 2000-2030.

Importance: The health outcomes of increased poverty and inequalities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been substantially amplified as a consequence of converging multiple crises. Brazil has some of the world's largest conditional cash transfer (Programa Bolsa Família [PBF]), social pension (Beneficio de Prestacão Continuada [BPC]), and primary health care (Estratégia de Saúde da Família [ESF]) programs that could act as mitigating interventions during the current polycrisis era of increasing poverty, slow or contracting economic growth, and conflicts. Objective: To evaluate the combined association of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer, social pension, and primary health care programs with the reduction of morbidity and mortality over the last 2 decades and forecast their potential mitigation of the current global polycrisis and beyond. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a longitudinal ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models (adjusted for relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and health care variables) integrating the retrospective analysis from 2000 to 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. Participants included a cohort of 2548 Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019, projected from 2020 to 2030. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: PBF coverage of the target population (those who were poorest) was categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). ESF coverage was categorized as null (0), low (0.1%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), and consolidated (70.0%-100%). BPC coverage was categorized by terciles. Main outcomes and measures: Age-standardized, all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates calculated for the entire population and by age group (<5 years, 5-29 years, 30-69 years, and ≥70 years). Results: Among the 2548 Brazilian municipalities studied from 2004 to 2019, the mean (SD) age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 16.64% (from 6.73 [1.14] to 5.61 [0.94] deaths per 1000 population). Consolidated coverages of social welfare programs studied were all associated with reductions in overall mortality rates (PBF: rate ratio [RR], 0.95 [95% CI, 0.94-0.96]; ESF: RR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.93-0.94]; BPC: RR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.91-0.92]), having all together prevented an estimated 1 462 626 (95% CI, 1 332 128-1 596 924) deaths over the period 2004 to 2019. The results were higher on mortality for the group younger than age 5 years (PBF: RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.85-0.90]; ESF: RR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.87-0.93]; BPC: RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.82-0.86]), on mortality for the group aged 70 years and older, and on hospitalizations. Considering a shorter scenario of economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of PBF, BPC, and ESF to proportionally cover the newly poor and at-risk individuals was projected to avert 1 305 359 (95% CI, 1 163 659-1 449 256) deaths and 6 593 224 (95% CI, 5 534 591-7 651 327) hospitalizations up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity scenarios that would reduce the coverage of these interventions. Conclusions and relevance: This cohort study's results suggest that combined expansion of conditional cash transfers, social pensions, and primary health care should be considered a viable strategy to mitigate the adverse health outcomes of the current global polycrisis in LMICs, whereas the implementation of fiscal austerity measures could result in large numbers of preventable deaths.

Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis of the Association of Conditional Cash Transfer With Child Mortality in Latin America, 2000-2030.

Importance: Latin America has implemented the world's largest and most consolidated conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs during the last 2 decades. As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty rates have markedly increased, and a large number of newly low-income individuals, especially children, have been left unprotected. Objective: To evaluate the association of CCT programs with child health in Latin American countries during the last 2 decades and forecast child mortality trends up to 2030 according to CCT alternative implementation options. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a multicountry, longitudinal, ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models, which were adjusted for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables, integrating the retrospective impact evaluations from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. The study cohort included 4882 municipalities from Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico with adequate quality of civil registration and vital statistics according to a validated multidimensional criterion. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: Conditional cash transfer coverage of the target (lowest-income) population categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were mortality rates for those younger than 5 years and hospitalization rates (per 1000 live births), overall and by poverty-related causes (diarrheal, malnutrition, tuberculosis, malaria, lower respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS), and the mortality rates for those younger than 5 years by age groups, namely, neonatal (0-28 days), postneonatal (28 days to 1 year), infant (<1 year), and toddler (1-4 years). Results: The retrospective analysis included 4882 municipalities. During the study period of January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, mortality in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico decreased by 7.8% in children and 6.5% in infants, and an increase in coverage of CCT programs of 76.8% was observed in these Latin American countries. Conditional cash transfer programs were associated with significant reductions of mortality rates in those younger than 5 years (rate ratio [RR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76), having prevented 738 919 (95% CI, 695 641-782 104) child deaths during this period. The association of highest coverage of CCT programs was stronger with poverty-related diseases, such as malnutrition (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.35), diarrhea (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.40-0.43), lower respiratory tract infections (RR, 0.66, 95% CI, 0.65-0.68), malaria (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), tuberculosis (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.48-0.79), and HIV/AIDS (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37). Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of CCTs to protect those newly in poverty could reduce the mortality rate for those younger than 5 years by up to 17% (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85) and prevent 153 601 (95% CI, 127 441-180 600) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cohort study suggest that the expansion of CCT programs could strongly reduce childhood hospitalization and mortality in Latin America and should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health impact of the current global economic crisis in low- and middle-income countries.

Understanding the social determinants of child mortality in Latin America over the last two decades: a machine learning approach.

The reduction of child mortality rates remains a significant global public health challenge, particularly in regions with high levels of inequality such as Latin America. We used machine learning (ML) algorithms to explore the relationship between social determinants and child under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico over two decades. We created a municipal-level cohort from 2000 to 2019 and trained a random forest model (RF) to estimate the relative importance of social determinants in predicting U5MR. We conducted a sensitivity analysis training two more ML models and presenting the mean square error, root mean square error, and median absolute deviation. Our findings indicate that poverty, illiteracy, and the Gini index were the most important variables for predicting U5MR according to the RF. Furthermore, non-linear relationships were found mainly for Gini index and U5MR. Our study suggests that long-term public policies to reduce U5MR in Latin America should focus on reducing poverty, illiteracy, and socioeconomic inequalities. This research provides important insights into the relationships between social determinants and child mortality rates in Latin America. The use of ML algorithms, combined with large longitudinal data, allowed us to evaluate the effects of social determinants on health more carefully than traditional models.

Incorporating respondent-driven sampling into web-based discrete choice experiments: preferences for COVID-19 mitigation measures.

To slow the spread of COVID-19, most countries implemented stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and other nonpharmaceutical mitigation strategies. To understand individual preferences for mitigation strategies, we piloted a web-based Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) approach to recruit participants from four universities in three countries to complete a computer-based Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE). Use of these methods, in combination, can serve to increase the external validity of a study by enabling recruitment of populations underrepresented in sampling frames, thus allowing preference results to be more generalizable to targeted subpopulations. A total of 99 students or staff members were invited to complete the survey, of which 72% started the survey (n = 71). Sixty-three participants (89% of starters) completed all tasks in the DCE. A rank-ordered mixed logit model was used to estimate preferences for COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical mitigation strategies. The model estimates indicated that participants preferred mitigation strategies that resulted in lower COVID-19 risk (i.e. sheltering-in-place more days a week), financial compensation from the government, fewer health (mental and physical) problems, and fewer financial problems. The high response rate and survey engagement provide proof of concept that RDS and DCE can be implemented as web-based applications, with the potential for scale up to produce nationally-representative preference estimates.

Retention in Care, Mortality, Loss-to-Follow-Up, and Viral Suppression among Antiretroviral Treatment-Naïve and Experienced Persons Participating in a Nationally Representative HIV Pre-Treatment Drug Resistance Survey in Mexico.

We describe associations of pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) with clinical outcomes such as remaining in care, loss to follow-up (LTFU), viral suppression, and death in Mexico, in real-life clinical settings. We analyzed clinical outcomes after a two-year follow up period in participants of a large 2017-2018 nationally representative PDR survey cross-referenced with information of the national ministry of health HIV database. Participants were stratified according to prior ART exposure and presence of efavirenz/nevirapine PDR. Using a Fine-Gray model, we evaluated virological suppression among resistant patients, in a context of competing risk with lost to follow-up and death. A total of 1823 participants were followed-up by a median of 1.88 years (Interquartile Range (IQR): 1.59-2.02): 20 (1%) were classified as experienced + resistant; 165 (9%) naïve + resistant; 211 (11%) experienced + non-resistant; and 1427 (78%) as naïve + non-resistant. Being ART-experienced was associated with a lower probability of remaining in care (adjusted Hazard Ratio(aHR) = 0.68, 0.53-0.86, for the non-resistant group and aHR = 0.37, 0.17-0.84, for the resistant group, compared to the naïve + non-resistant group). Heterosexual cisgender women compared to men who have sex with men [MSM], had a lower viral suppression (aHR = 0.84, 0.70-1.01, p = 0.06) ART-experienced persons with NNRTI-PDR showed the worst clinical outcomes. This group was enriched with women and persons with lower education and unemployed, which suggests higher levels of social vulnerability.

Incremental Risk of Developing Severe COVID-19 Among Mexican Patients With Diabetes Attributed to Social and Health Care Access Disadvantages.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes is an important risk factor for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but little is known about the marginal effect of additional risk factors for severe COVID-19 among individuals with diabetes. We tested the hypothesis that sociodemographic, access to health care, and presentation to care characteristics among individuals with diabetes in Mexico confer an additional risk of hospitalization with COVID-19. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study using public data from the General Directorate of Epidemiology of the Mexican Ministry of Health. We included individuals with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 between 1 March and 31 July 2020. The primary outcome was the predicted probability of hospitalization, inclusive of 8.5% of patients who required intensive care unit admission. RESULTS: Among 373,963 adults with COVID-19, 16.1% (95% CI 16.0-16.3) self-reported diabetes. The predicted probability of hospitalization was 38.4% (37.6-39.2) for patients with diabetes only and 42.9% (42.2-43.7) for patients with diabetes and one or more comorbidities (obesity, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease). High municipality-level of social deprivation and low state-level health care resources were associated with a 9.5% (6.3-12.7) and 17.5% (14.5-20.4) increased probability of hospitalization among patients with diabetes, respectively. In age-, sex-, and comorbidity-adjusted models, living in a context of high social vulnerability and low health care resources was associated with the highest predicted probability of hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Social vulnerability contributes considerably to the probability of hospitalization among individuals with COVID-19 and diabetes with associated comorbidities. These findings can inform mitigation strategies for populations at the highest risk of severe COVID-19.

Measuring and analysing social efficiency in the production of maternal health services in Mexico, 2008-15.

'Social efficiency' (SE) denotes the capacity of health systems to ensure equitable access to quality health services at no financial risk to users. Mexico and other low- and middle-income countries have rarely studied the performance of their health systems from an SE perspective. We propose a metric for assessing SE in the production of maternal health services in the public sector among populations without social security, analysing contextual correlates of the demand for these services. Analysis was based on administrative data collected from the 243 health jurisdictions (HJs) in Mexico for the period 2008-15. We defined production inputs as the availability of physical and human resources and social product as the unweighted sum of social sub-products, including an equitable distribution of maternal health resources, the provision of quality maternal health care and financial protection for users. We described the SE scores, the main contextual characteristics as well as those related to the demand for maternal health services. We then performed a variance decomposition analysis of the SE score by component and estimated the SE territorial concentration patterns. Finally, we identified the structural characteristics modelling SE by means of a spatial autoregressive panel data model with fixed effects by year. The SE score rose from 57.7% in 2008 to 71.9% in 2015 (P < 0.01), with its quality component accounting for the largest proportion of variance (30%). SE peaked in HJs with low social marginalization and rurality, and with service demand characterized by low parity and older populations. Different SE levels demonstrated territorial concentration patterns. Analysing SE as a metric for health system performance offers elements that contribute to the achievement of UHC as well as to the design and implementation of effective maternal health interventions intended particularly for the most socially vulnerable sectors of the population.

Short-term health and economic burden of gestational diabetes mellitus in Mexico: A modeling study.

AIM: To estimate the annual burden of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in Mexico. METHODS: A model was built to conduct estimates from a healthcare system perspective, namely, the incremental costs of GDM pregnancy compared with non-GDM pregnancy from the first trimester until childbirth. The model used probabilities from the literature and surveys, and costs obtained from the Ministry of Health and national healthcare institutions. Scenario analyses were performed to estimate the GDM burden at different levels of incidence. RESULTS: Although a non-GDM pregnancy cost on average USD 1880.6 (low risk was USD 1043.9 and high risk was USD 1673.5), a pregnancy with GDM cost USD 2934.9. Therefore, the total additional cost was USD 1576.2 per case. Given the considerable variability of the GDM incidence in Mexico, the total burden could range from USD 86.8 to USD 827.4 million per year. CONCLUSIONS: GDM is one of the most frequent complications of pregnancy, but research has been insufficient regarding its epidemiological and economic burden in Latin America. This paper shows that the GDM economic burden in Mexico is substantial despite only accounting for short-term medical costs. Further research to assess the GDM incidence and evaluate its long-term consequences from a broader societal perspective in Mexico is recommended.

A longitudinal assessment of technical efficiency in the outpatient production of maternal health services in México.

We assess technical efficiency (TE) level for Mexican Ministry of Health (MoH) primary care units. Assessment was focused on the production of adequate maternal health services defined as the coverage level of women who received timely and frequent antenatal care, and institutional and medical care during childbirth. We conducted a longitudinal analysis of administrative and socio-demographic information concerning 233 health jurisdictions for the period 2008-15. Crude TE was calculated using window data envelopment analysis (Windows-DEA). Empirical analysis included the description of several factors affecting the production of maternal health services, including the heterogeneity and trends assessment of TE among health jurisdictions. We estimated a pooled regression model with robust standard errors to identify correlates of TE and estimated adjusted performance scores. Results indicate that while the production of adequate maternal-health services and TE in health jurisdictions proved insufficient, they rose by 22% (from 40.9% to 49.8%) and 14% (from 54.3% to 62%), respectively, over time. Furthermore, variance in efficiency among production units diminished and persistent regularities were observed. Performance was highest in the Northern as opposed to the Southern and Southeastern health jurisdictions, but lowest in the most marginalized zones of the country marked by economic inequality and the presence of indigenous populations. The Mexican Health System has reached a paradoxical situation: the steady escalation of financial resources in the public health subsystem over the past 15 years has yielded sub-optimal results as regards coverage for essential maternal health interventions among the poorest. Mexican government must put in place a set of measures to guarantee efficiency in the system's performance without affecting equity gains. This necessarily involves reconsidering, and where necessary replacing, the criteria behind the allocation and distribution of resources, as well as the mechanisms for controlling how resources are used and accountability is fulfilled.

Assessing costs of a hypertension program in primary care: evidence from the HEARTS program in Mexico

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. In 2021, Mexico launched the HEARTS program to improve the prevention and control of cardiovascu- lar disease (CVD) risk factors in 20 primary care facilities in the states of Chiapas and Yucatán. This study projects the annual cost of program implementation and discusses budgetary implications for scaling up the program. Methods. We obtained district-level data on treatment protocols, medication costs, and other resources required to prevent and treat CVD. We used the HEARTS Costing Tool to estimate total and per-patient costs. A “partial implementation” scenario calculated the costs of implementing HEARTS if existing pharmacological treatment protocols are left in place. The second scenario, “full implementation,” examined costs if programs use HEARTS pharmacological protocol. Results. Respectively in the partial and full implementation scenarios, total annual costs to implement and operate HEARTS were $260 023 ($32.1 per patient/year) and $255 046 ($31.5 per patient/year) in Chiapas, and $1 000 059 ($41.3 per patient/year) and $1 013 835 ($43.3 per patient/year) in Yucatán. In Chiapas, adopt- ing HEARTS standardized treatment protocols resulted in a 9.7 % reduction in annual medication expenditures relative to maintaining status-quo treatment approaches. In Yucatán, adoption was $12 875 more expensive, in part because HEARTS hypertension treatment regimens were more intensive than status quo regimens. Conclusion. HEARTS in the Americas offers a standardized strategy to treating and controlling CVD risk factors. In Mexico, approaches that may lead to improved program affordability include adoption of the recom- mended HEARTS treatment protocols with preferred medications and task shifting of services from physicians to nurses and other providers.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. En el año 2021, México puso en marcha el programa HEARTS para mejorar la prevención y el con- trol de los factores de riesgo de las enfermedades cardiovasculares en 20 centros de atención primaria en los estados de Chiapas y Yucatán. En este estudio se estima el costo anual de la ejecución del programa y se abordan las implicaciones presupuestarias para su ampliación. Métodos. Se obtuvieron datos a nivel de distrito sobre los protocolos de tratamiento, los costos de los medica- mentos y otros recursos necesarios para prevenir y tratar las enfermedades cardiovasculares. Se empleó la herramienta HEARTS para el cálculo de costos con el fin de estimar los costos totales y por paciente. En una situación de “implementación parcial”, se calcularon los costos de ejecutar HEARTS si se mantienen los pro- tocolos de tratamiento farmacológico existentes. En un segundo escenario de “implementación completa”, se examinaron los costos de los programas que emplean el protocolo farmacológico de HEARTS. Resultados. En los escenarios de implementación parcial y total, respectivamente, los costos anuales totales para implementar y poner en marcha el paquete de medidas HEARTS fueron de US$ 260 023 (US$ 32,1 por paciente al año) y US$ 255 046 (US$ 31,5 por paciente al año) en Chiapas, y US$ 1 000 059 (US$ 41,3 por paciente al año) y US$ 1 013 835 (US$ 43,3 por paciente al año) en Yucatán. En Chiapas, la adopción de los protocolos de tratamiento estandarizados de HEARTS supuso una reducción de 9,7% en los gastos anuales de medicamentos en comparación con el mantenimiento de los enfoques de tratamiento ya establecidos. En Yucatán, la adopción fue US$ 12 875 más cara, en parte porque los esquemas de tratamiento para la hiper- tensión que se proponen en HEARTS fueron más intensivos que los esquemas ya establecidos. Conclusiones. El programa HEARTS en la Región de las Américas ofrece una estrategia estandarizada para tratar y controlar los factores de riesgo de las enfermedades cardiovasculares. En México, los enfoques que pueden conducir a una mayor asequibilidad del programa incluyen la adopción de los protocolos de tratamiento recomendados de HEARTS con medicamentos de preferencia y la distribución de tareas de los servicios para que pasen del personal médico al personal de enfermería y otros prestadores de atención de salud.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Em 2021, o México lançou o programa HEARTS para melhorar a prevenção e o controle dos fatores de risco de doenças cardiovasculares (DCV) em 20 unidades básicas de saúde nos estados de Chiapas e Yucatán. Este estudo projeta o custo anual de implementação do programa e discute as implicações orça- mentárias para sua expansão. Métodos. Foram obtidos dados de nível distrital sobre protocolos de tratamento, custos de medicamentos e outros recursos necessários para prevenir e tratar a DCV. A ferramenta de cálculo de custos do HEARTS foi usada para estimar os custos totais e por paciente. Um cenário de “implementação parcial” calculou os cus- tos de implementação do HEARTS se os protocolos de farmacoterapia existentes forem mantidos em vigor. O segundo cenário, “implementação plena”, examinou os custos se os programas utilizassem o protocolo de farmacoterapia do HEARTS. Resultados. Respectivamente nos cenários de implementação parcial e plena, os custos anuais totais para implementar e operar o HEARTS foram de US$ 260 023 (US$ 32,1 por paciente/ano) e US$ 255 046 (US$ 31,5 por paciente/ano) em Chiapas, e $1 000 059 (US$ 41,3 por paciente/ano) e US$ 1 013 835 (US$ 43,30 por paciente/ano) em Yucatán. Em Chiapas, a adoção de protocolos de tratamento padronizados do HEARTS resultou em uma redução de 9,7% nos gastos anuais com medicamentos em relação à manutenção das condutas atuais (status quo). Em Yucatán, a adoção foi US$ 12 875 mais cara, em parte porque os regimes de tratamento de hipertensão do HEARTS eram mais intensivos do que os regimes atuais. Conclusão. A HEARTS nas Américas oferece uma estratégia padronizada para tratar e controlar os fatores de risco de DCV. No México, abordagens que podem levar a uma melhor acessibilidade do programa incluem a adoção dos protocolos de tratamento recomendados do HEARTS com medicamentos preferidos e a realo- cação de tarefas de médicos para enfermeiros e outros profissionais.