Sex Differences in Treatment Response to Nucleos(t)ide Therapy in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Multicenter Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear if there may be sex differences in response to nucleos(t)ide analogs including virologic response (VR), biochemical response (BR), complete response (CR), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence among hepatitis B patients. We compared nucleos(t)ide analog treatment outcomes by sex. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 3388 treatment-naïve adult hepatitis B patients (1250 female, 2138 male) from the Real-World Evidence from the Global Alliance for the Study of Hepatitis B Virus consortium who initiated therapy with either entecavir or tenofovir from 22 sites (Argentina, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the United States). We used propensity-score matching to balance background characteristics of the male and female groups and competing-risks analysis to estimate the incidence and subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) of VR, BR, CR, and HCC. RESULTS: Females (vs males) were older (52.0 vs 48.6 y); less likely to be overweight/obese (49.3% vs 65.7%), diabetic (9.9% vs 13.1%), or cirrhotic (27.9% vs 33.0%); and had a lower HBV DNA level (5.9 vs 6.0 log10 IU/mL) and alanine aminotransferase level (91 vs 102 IU/L) (all P < .01). However, after propensity-score matching, relevant background characteristics were balanced between the 2 groups. Females (vs males) had similar 5-year cumulative VR (91.3% vs 90.3%; P = .40) and HCC incidence rates (5.1% vs 4.4%; P = .64), but lower BR (84.0% vs 90.9%; P < .001) and CR (78.8% vs 83.4%; P = .016). Males were more likely to achieve BR (SHR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.17-1.46; P < .001) and CR (SHR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.03-1.31; P = .016), but VR and HCC risks were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Sex differences exist for treatment outcomes among hepatitis B patients. Male sex was associated with a 16% higher likelihood of clinical remission and a 31% higher likelihood of biochemical response than females, while virologic response and HCC incidence were similar between the 2 groups.

Mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with tenofovir or entecavir: A multinational study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The benefits of entecavir (ETV) versus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in reducing the development of chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma remain controversial. Whether mortality rates differ between patients with CHB treated with ETV and those treated with TDF is unclear. METHODS: A total of 2542 patients with CHB treated with either ETV or TDF were recruited from a multinational cohort. A 1:1 propensity score matching was performed to balance the differences in baseline characteristics between the two patient groups. We aimed to compare the all-cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality between patients receiving ETV and those receiving TDF. RESULTS: The annual incidence of all-cause mortality in the entire cohort was 1.0/100 person-years (follow-up, 15 757.5 person-years). Patients who received TDF were younger and had a higher body mass index, platelet count, hepatitis B virus deoxyribonucleic acid levels, and proportion of hepatitis B e-antigen seropositivity than those who received ETV. The factors associated with all-cause mortality were fibrosis-4 index > 6.5 (hazard ratio [HR]/confidence interval [CI]: 3.13/2.15-4.54, P < 0.001), age per year increase (HR/CI: 1.05/1.04-1.07, P < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level per U/L increase (HR/CI: 0.997/0.996-0.999, P = 0.003), and γ-glutamyl transferase level per U/L increase (HR/CI: 1.002/1.001-1.003, P < 0.001). No significant difference in all-cause mortality was observed between the ETV and TDF groups (log-rank test, P = 0.69). After propensity score matching, no significant differences in all-cause, liver-related, or non-liver-related mortality were observed between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term outcomes of all-cause mortality and liver-related and non-liver-related mortality did not differ between patients treated with ETV and those receiving TDF.

Isolated Hepatitis B Core Antibody Positivity and Long-Term Liver-Related Mortality in Korea: A Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Whether isolated hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) positivity is a risk factor for long-term liver-related outcomes in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-endemic areas remains unclear. We aimed to investigate liver-related and liver cancer mortality of isolated anti-HBc positivity in Korean adults. METHODS: A cohort study comprised 609,299 Korean adults who underwent hepatitis B serologic markers, as a part of health examination. Liver-related and liver cancer mortality were determined using the National Death Records. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.0 years (interquartile range, 5.5-13.7 years), 554 liver-related deaths were identified (liver-related mortality, 9.6 cases per 10 5 person-years). The prevalence of isolated anti-HBc positivity was 3.8% (n = 23,399) and was age-dependent. After adjustment for age, sex, and other confounders, hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for liver-related mortality in isolated anti-HBc-positive and hepatitis B surface antigen-positive subjects compared with HBV-unexposed subjects were 1.69 (1.22-2.33) and 27.02 (21.45-34.04), respectively. These associations were pronounced in the analyses using liver cancer mortality as an outcome. Among isolated anti-HBc-positive patients, the risks of liver-related and liver cancer mortality were significantly higher in those with high fibrosis-4 scores compared with patients unexposed to HBV with the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 15.59 (9.21-26.37) and 72.66 (36.96-142.86), respectively. DISCUSSION: In this cohort of Korean adults, isolated anti-HBc positivity was associated with an increased risk of liver-related and liver cancer mortality, especially when accompanied by a high fibrosis score. Isolated anti-HBc positivity may be an independent risk factor for liver-related outcomes, especially in high-endemic areas.

Personalized Antiviral Drug Selection in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Using a Machine Learning Model: A Multinational Study.

INTRODUCTION: Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is reportedly superior or at least comparable to entecavir (ETV) for the prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B; however, it has distinct long-term renal and bone toxicities. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model (designated as Prediction of Liver cancer using Artificial intelligence-driven model for Network-antiviral Selection for hepatitis B [PLAN-S]) to predict an individualized risk of HCC during ETV or TDF therapy. METHODS: This multinational study included 13,970 patients with chronic hepatitis B. The derivation (n = 6,790), Korean validation (n = 4,543), and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts (n = 2,637) were established. Patients were classified as the TDF-superior group when a PLAN-S-predicted HCC risk under ETV treatment is greater than under TDF treatment, and the others were defined as the TDF-nonsuperior group. RESULTS: The PLAN-S model was derived using 8 variables and generated a c-index between 0.67 and 0.78 for each cohort. The TDF-superior group included a higher proportion of male patients and patients with cirrhosis than the TDF-nonsuperior group. In the derivation, Korean validation, and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts, 65.3%, 63.5%, and 76.4% of patients were classified as the TDF-superior group, respectively. In the TDF-superior group of each cohort, TDF was associated with a significantly lower risk of HCC than ETV (hazard ratio = 0.60-0.73, all P < 0.05). In the TDF-nonsuperior group, however, there was no significant difference between the 2 drugs (hazard ratio = 1.16-1.29, all P > 0.1). DISCUSSION: Considering the individual HCC risk predicted by PLAN-S and the potential TDF-related toxicities, TDF and ETV treatment may be recommended for the TDF-superior and TDF-nonsuperior groups, respectively.

An artificial intelligence model to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several models have recently been developed to predict risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Our aims were to develop and validate an artificial intelligence-assisted prediction model of HCC risk. METHODS: Using a gradient-boosting machine (GBM) algorithm, a model was developed using 6,051 patients with CHB who received entecavir or tenofovir therapy from 4 hospitals in Korea. Two external validation cohorts were independently established: Korean (5,817 patients from 14 Korean centers) and Caucasian (1,640 from 11 Western centers) PAGE-B cohorts. The primary outcome was HCC development. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort and the 2 validation cohorts, cirrhosis was present in 26.9%-50.2% of patients at baseline. A model using 10 parameters at baseline was derived and showed good predictive performance (c-index 0.79). This model showed significantly better discrimination than previous models (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, REACH-B, and CU-HCC) in both the Korean (c-index 0.79 vs. 0.64-0.74; all p <0.001) and Caucasian validation cohorts (c-index 0.81 vs. 0.57-0.79; all p <0.05 except modified PAGE-B, p = 0.42). A calibration plot showed a satisfactory calibration function. When the patients were grouped into 4 risk groups, the minimal-risk group (11.2% of the Korean cohort and 8.8% of the Caucasian cohort) had a less than 0.5% risk of HCC during 8 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This GBM-based model provides the best predictive power for HCC risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with CHB treated with entecavir or tenofovir. LAY SUMMARY: Risk scores have been developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B. We developed and validated a new risk prediction model using machine learning algorithms in 13,508 antiviral-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B. Our new model, based on 10 common baseline characteristics, demonstrated superior performance in risk stratification compared with previous risk scores. This model also identified a group of patients at minimal risk of developing HCC, who could be indicated for less intensive HCC surveillance.

Liver Fibrosis in Asians With Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This study aimed to evaluate risk factors associated with liver fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 967 Korean patients with MAFLD involved a cohort from a health screening program during the years 2015-2018. The patients were classified into 4 MAFLD subgroups: group 1 (overweight). group 2 (obese), group 3 (lean/normal weight with metabolic abnormalities), and group 4 (diabetes). Liver fibrosis was assessed based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) value using 2-dimensional real-time magnetic resonance elastography. We investigated differences in liver fibrosis according to MAFLD subgroup classification and determined the risk factors for significant fibrosis. RESULTS: The mean age was 50.8 years, and 869 (90%) patients were male. The mean value of LSM in magnetic resonance elastography was 2.48 ± 0.47 kPa. Significant fibrosis (LSM ≥2.97 kPa) was observed in 66 (6.8%) of 967 patients. The proportion of significant fibrosis in MAFLD group 1, group 2, group 3, and group 4 was 1.3%, 5.5%, 6.4%, and 18.9%, respectively (P < .001). Multivariable analysis indicated that the risk factors for significant fibrosis were serum ferritin ≥300 ng/mL (odds ratio [OR], 1.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-3.49; P = .023), Fibrosis-4 ≥1.3 (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.68-5.24; P < .001), homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance ≥2.0 (OR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.25-5.43; P = .011), metabolic syndrome (OR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.31-4.88; P = .006), and MAFLD group 4 (OR, 6.93; 95% CI, 1.96-24.51; P = .003). However, the etiology of liver disease was not statistically associated with liver fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Liver fibrosis in patients with MAFLD varies according to subgroup classification based on diabetes, body mass index, and metabolic risk factors.

Impact of HBeAg on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk During Oral Antiviral Treatment in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antiviral treatment from hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive status may attenuate the integration of hepatitis B virus DNA into the host genome causing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the impact of HBeAg status at the onset of antiviral treatment on the risk of HCC. METHODS: The incidence of HCC was evaluated in Korean patients with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir in either HBeAg-positive or HBeAg-negative phase. The results in the Korean cohort were validated in a Caucasian PAGE-B cohort. RESULTS: A total of 9143 Korean patients (mean age, 49.2 years) were included: 49.1% were HBeAg-positive and 49.2% had cirrhosis. During follow-up (median, 5.1 years), 916 patients (10.0%) developed HCC. Baseline HBeAg positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. However, in the non-cirrhotic subcohort, HBeAg positivity was independently associated with a lower risk of HCC in multivariable (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.66), propensity score-matching (aHR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28-0.76), and inverse probability weighting analyses (aHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.28-0.70). In the Caucasian cohort (n = 719; mean age, 51.8 years; HBeAg-positive, 20.3%; cirrhosis, 34.8%), HBeAg-positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC either in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. In the non-cirrhotic subcohort, none of the HBeAg-positive group developed HCC, although the difference failed to reach statistical significance (aHR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.00-1.67). CONCLUSIONS: This multinational cohort study implies that HBeAg positivity at the onset of antiviral treatment seems to be an independent factor associated with a lower risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B without cirrhosis, but not in those with cirrhosis.

Progression Rates by Age, Sex, Treatment, and Disease Activity by AASLD and EASL Criteria: Data for Precision Medicine.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antiviral treatment criteria are based on disease progression risk, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance recommendations for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) without cirrhosis is based on an annual incidence threshold of 0.2%. However, accurate and precise disease progression estimate data are limited. Thus, we aimed to determine rates of cirrhosis and HCC development stratified by age, sex, treatment status, and disease activity based on the 2018 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases and 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines. METHODS: We analyzed 18,338 patients (8914 treated, 9424 untreated) from 6 centers from the United States and 27 centers from Asia-Pacific countries. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate annual progression rates to cirrhosis or HCC in person-years. RESULTS: The cohort was 63% male, with a mean age of 46.19 years, with baseline cirrhosis of 14.3% and median follow up of 9.60 years. By American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases criteria, depending on age, sex, and disease activity, annual incidence rates ranged from 0.07% to 3.94% for cirrhosis, from 0.04% to 2.19% for HCC in patients without cirrhosis, and from 0.40% to 8.83% for HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Several subgroups of patients without cirrhosis including males younger than 40 years of age and females younger than 50 years of age had annual HCC risk near or exceeding 0.2%. Similar results were found using European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria. CONCLUSION: There is great variability in CHB disease progression rates even among "lower-risk" populations. Future CHB modeling studies, public health planning, and HCC surveillance recommendation should be based on more precise disease progression rates based on sex, age, and disease activity, plus treatment status.

Liver fibrosis scores and risk of liver-related mortality in young adults with chronic hepatitis B: A cohort study.

The predictive role of noninvasive liver fibrosis scores on liver-related mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis B below 40 years of age remains unclarified. We examined the association of liver fibrosis scores with liver-related mortality in young (<40 years) and older adults with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. A cohort study was performed in 21,360 HBsAg-positive Korean adults without liver cirrhosis or liver cancer at baseline who were followed up for up to 18 years. The liver fibrosis scores were determined using the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) and aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index (APRI). Patients' vital status and cause of death were ascertained through the National Death Records. During a median follow-up of 10.2 years, 283 liver-related deaths were identified (liver-related mortality, 127.4/105 person-years). The liver fibrosis scores were significantly associated with increased risks of liver-related mortality; this association did not differ by age group (<40 vs. ≥40 years). The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for liver-related mortality comparing intermediate and high to low FIB-4 scores were 4.23 (1.99-9.00), and 15.16 (5.18-44.38), respectively, among individuals under 40, and 4.46 (3.03-6.56) and 22.47 (15.11-33.41), respectively, among older individuals. These associations were similar in analyses using APRI. In this cohort of HBsAg-positive individuals, the liver fibrosis scores were associated with increased risks of liver-related mortality in young and older adults. The liver fibrosis scores have a role in predicting liver mortality, even in young adults with HBV.

On-treatment gamma-glutamyl transferase predicts the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) has been predictive of chronic hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. Its role in the risk of HCC in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogues (NAs) is elusive. METHODS: A total of 2172 CHB patients from East Asia were randomized into development and validation groups in a 1:2 ratio. Serum GGT levels before and 6 months (M6) after initiating NAs and the potential risk factors were measured. The primary endpoint was HCC development 12 months after NA initiation. RESULTS: The annual incidence of HCC was 1.4/100 person-years in a follow-up period of 11 370.7 person-years. The strongest factor associated with HCC development was high M6-GGT levels (>25 U/L; hazard ratio [HR]/95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31/2.02-5.42, P < .001), followed by cirrhosis (HR/CI: 2.06/1.39-3.06, P < .001), male sex (HR/CI: 2.01/1.29-3.13, P = .002) and age (HR/CI: 1.05/1.03-1.17, P < .001). Among cirrhotic patients, the incidence of HCC did not differ between those with high or low M6-GGT levels (P = .09). In contrast, among non-cirrhotic patients, the incidence of HCC was significantly higher for those with M6-GGT level >25 U/L than for their counterparts (P < .001). Cox regression analysis revealed that the strongest factor associated with HCC development in non-cirrhotic patients was high M6-GGT levels (HR/CI: 5.05/2.52-10.16, P < .001), followed by age (HR/CI: 1.07/1.04-1.09, P < .001). Non-cirrhotic elderly patients with high M6-GGT levels had a similarly high HCC risk as cirrhotic patients did (P = .29). CONCLUSIONS: On-treatment serum GGT levels strongly predicted HCC development in CHB patients, particularly non-cirrhotic patients, treated with NAs.

A Multi-Center, Double-Blind Randomized Controlled Phase III Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Antiviral Activity and Safety of DA-2802 (Tenofovir Disoproxil Orotate) and Viread (Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate) in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients.

BACKGROUND: Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF, Viread®) had been used as a standard treatment option of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This clinical trial was conducted to evaluate the efficacy and safety of DA-2802 (tenofovir disoproxil orotate) compared to TDF. METHODS: The present study was a double blind randomized controlled trial. Patients with CHB were recruited from 25 hospitals in Korea and given DA-2802 at a dose of 319 mg once daily or Viread® at a dose of 300 mg once daily for 48 weeks from March 2017 to January 2019. Change in hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA level at week 48 after dosing compared to baseline was the primary efficacy endpoint. Secondary efficacy endpoints were proportions of subjects with undetectable HBV DNA, those with normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, and those with loss of hepatitis B envelop antigen (HBeAg), those with loss of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Adverse events (AEs) were also investigated. RESULTS: A total of 122 patients (DA-2802 group: n = 61, Viread® group: n = 61) were used as full analysis set for efficacy analysis. Mean age, proportion of males, laboratory results and virologic characteristics were not different between the two groups. The change in HBV DNA level at week 48 from baseline was -5.13 ± 1.40 in the DA-2802 group and -4.97 ± 1.40 log10 copies/mL in the Viread® group. The analysis of primary endpoint using the nonparametric analysis of covariance showed statistically significant results (P < 0.001), which confirmed non-inferiority of DA-2802 to Viread® by a prespecified noninferiority margin of 1. The proportion of undetectable HBV DNA was 78.7% in the DA-2802 group and 75.4% in the Viread® group (P = 0.698). The proportion of subjects who had normal ALT levels was 75.4% in the DA-2802 group and 73.3% in the Viread® group (P = 0.795). The proportion of those with HBeAg loss was 8.1% in the DA-2802 group and 10.8% in the Viread® group (P = 1.000). No subject showed HBsAg loss. The frequency of AEs during treatment was similar between the two groups. Most AEs were mild to moderate in severity. CONCLUSION: DA-2802 is considered an effective and safe treatment for patients with CHB. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02967939.

Fasting Ketonuria and the Risk of Incident Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease With and Without Liver Fibrosis in Nondiabetic Adults.

INTRODUCTION: Dietary carbohydrate restriction or ketogenic diets are known to be beneficial in preventing liver fat accumulation. However, the effect of ketonemia on the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in nondiabetic population is largely unknown. We investigated the association between fasting ketonuria and the risk of incident NAFLD in healthy adults. METHODS: A cohort of 153,076 nondiabetic Koreans with no hepatic steatosis and low probability of fibrosis at baseline was followed for a median of 4.1 years. The outcome was incident hepatic steatosis with or without liver fibrosis, and it was assessed by liver ultrasound and noninvasive fibrosis indices, including fibrosis-4 and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). Parametric proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for outcome according to ketonuria status. RESULTS: Within 677,702.1 person-years of follow-up, 31,079 subjects developed hepatic steatosis. Compared with no ketonuria (reference), fasting ketonuria was significantly associated with a decreased risk of incident hepatic steatosis, with multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% confidence interval) of 0.81 (0.78-0.84). The corresponding HRs for incident hepatic steatosis with intermediate-to-high NFS were 0.79 (0.69-0.90). Similar associations were observed replacing NFS with fibrosis-4. In addition, the presence of persistent ketonuria at both baseline and subsequent visit was associated with the greatest decrease in the adjusted HR for incident NAFLD. DISCUSSION: Ketonuria was associated with a reduced risk of developing incident hepatic steatosis with and without intermediate-to-high probability of advanced fibrosis in a large cohort of nondiabetic healthy individuals. The role of hyperketonemia in the prevention of NAFLD requires further exploration.

Low Levels of Alcohol Consumption, Obesity, and Development of Fatty Liver With and Without Evidence of Advanced Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The effects of low-level alcohol consumption on fatty liver disease and the potential for effect modification by obesity is uncertain. We investigated associations among low-level alcohol consumption, obesity status, and the development of incident hepatic steatosis (HS), either with or without an increase in noninvasive liver fibrosis score category (from low to intermediate or high category). APPROACH AND RESULTS: A total of 190,048 adults without HS and a low probability of fibrosis with alcohol consumption less than 30 g/day (men) and less than 20 g/day (women) were followed for up to 15.7 years. Alcohol categories of no, light, and moderate consumption were defined as 0, 1-9.9, and 10-29.9 g/day (10-19.9 g/day for women), respectively. HS was diagnosed by ultrasonography, and the probability of fibrosis was estimated using the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). Parametric proportional hazards models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 43,466 participants developed HS, 2,983 of whom developed HS with an increase in FIB-4 index (to intermediate or high scores). Comparing light drinkers and moderate drinkers with nondrinkers, multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) for incident HS were 0.93 (0.90-0.95) and 0.90 (0.87-0.92), respectively. In contrast, comparing light drinkers and moderate drinkers with nondrinkers, multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) for developing HS plus intermediate/high FIB-4 were 1.15 (1.04-1.27) and 1.49 (1.33-1.66), respectively. The association between alcohol consumption categories and incident HS plus intermediate/high FIB-4 was observed in both nonobese and obese individuals, although the association was stronger in nonobese individuals (P for interaction by obesity = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: Light/moderate alcohol consumption has differential effects on the development of different stages of fatty liver disease, which is modified by the presence of obesity.

Twelve-month post-treatment parameters are superior in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are currently several prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving oral antiviral therapy. However, most models are based on pre-treatment clinical parameters. The current study aimed to develop a novel and practical prediction model for HCC by using both pre- and post-treatment parameters in this population. METHODS: We included two treatment-naïve CHB cohorts who were initiated on oral antiviral therapies: the derivation cohort (n = 1480, Korea prospective SAINT cohort) and the validation cohort (n = 426, the US retrospective Stanford Bay cohort). We employed logistic regression, decision tree, lasso regression, support vector machine and random forest algorithms to develop the HCC prediction model and selected the most optimal method. RESULTS: We evaluated both pre-treatment and the 12-month clinical parameters on-treatment and found the 12-month on-treatment values to have superior HCC prediction performance. The lasso logistic regression algorithm using the presence of cirrhosis at baseline and alpha-foetoprotein and platelet at 12 months showed the best performance (AUROC = 0.843 in the derivation cohort. The model performed well in the external validation cohort (AUROC = 0.844) and better than other existing prediction models including the APA, PAGE-B and GAG models (AUROC = 0.769 to 0.818). CONCLUSIONS: We provided a simple-to-use HCC prediction model based on presence of cirrhosis at baseline and two objective laboratory markers (AFP and platelets) measured 12 months after antiviral initiation. The model is highly accurate with excellent validation in an external cohort from a different country (AUROC 0.844) (Clinical trial number: KCT0003487).

Alcoholic and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Incident Hospitalization for Liver and Cardiovascular Diseases.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We compared the associations of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcohol-associated fatty liver disease (AFLD) with risk of incident hospitalization for liver and cardiovascular diseases. METHODS: We collected data from the Kangbuk Samsung Health Study on 218,030 men and women in Korea who underwent a health examination from 2011 through 2016. Fatty liver disease (FLD) was detected by ultrasound during the initial examination. The Fibrosis-4 index was used to identify individuals with liver fibrosis. Participants were followed up for as long as 5.9 years and data on hospitalizations for liver and cardiovascular diseases were collected. RESULTS: The prevalence of NAFLD was 22.0% and the prevalence of AFLD was 6.4%. Over a median follow-up period of 4.2 years, we observed 51 and 1097 incident cases of liver disease- or cardiovascular disease-related hospitalizations, respectively. After adjustment for potential confounders, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for liver disease-related hospitalization, comparing NAFLD and AFLD with the reference category (no excessive alcohol intake and no FLD), were 1.73 (95% CI, 0.76-3.96) and 5.00 (95% CI, 2.12-11.83), respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for cardiovascular disease hospitalization were 1.20 (95% CI, 1.02-1.40) and 1.08 (95% CI, 0.86-1.34), respectively. Among participants with FLD, the risk of liver disease-related hospitalization increased with high Fibrosis-4 index scores, whereas the risk of incident cardiovascular disease did not. CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort study, we found an increased risk of liver disease-related hospitalizations for patients with NAFLD or AFLD, especially among those with Fibrosis-4 index scores. An increased risk of cardiovascular disease-associated hospitalization was observed in patients with NAFLD but not AFLD.

No Difference in Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection Treated With Entecavir vs Tenofovir.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Studies to evaluate risks of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection treated with the nucelos(t)ide analogues entecavir or tenofovir have produced contradictory results. These differences are likely to be the result of censored data, insufficient observation periods, and different observation periods for patients treated with different drugs. We aimed to compare the incidence of HCC development between patients treated with oral entecavir or tenofovir and followed up for the same time periods. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study, collecting data from 1560 treatment-naive patients with chronic HBV infection who were first treated with entecavir (n = 753) or tenofovir (n = 807) from 2011 through 2015 at 9 academic hospitals in Korea. Clinical outcomes were recorded over a mean time period of 4.7 ± 1.0 years, from 92.4% of patients treated with tenofovir and 92.7% of patients treated with entecavir. RESULTS: Thirty-four patients in the entecavir group (4.5%) and 45 patients in the tenofovir group (5.6%) developed HCC during the follow-up period. The incidence of HCC did not differ significantly between groups, even in a 516-pair propensity score-matched population. CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective study of 1560 treatment-naive patients with chronic HBV infection, the incidence of HCC did not differ significantly between patients treated with entecavir vs tenofovir over the same observation period. CLINICAL TRIAL: KCT0003487.

Besifovir Dipivoxil Maleate 144-Week Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis B: An Open-Label Extensional Study of a Phase 3 Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remains a major worldwide public health concern. Besifovir dipivoxil maleate (BSV) is a new promising treatment for CHB. However, long-term efficacy and safety have not yet been evaluated. Therefore, the goal of the study is to determine the antiviral efficacy and safety of BSV treatment over a 144-week duration (BSV-BSV) in comparison with those of a sequential treatment with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) followed by a 96-week duration BSV administration (TDF-BSV). METHODS: After 48 weeks of a double-blind comparison between BSV and TDF treatments, patients continued the open-label BSV study. We evaluated antiviral efficacy and drug safety up to 144 weeks for BSV-BSV and TDF-BSV groups. The primary endpoint was a virological response (hepatitis B virus DNA < 69 IU/mL). RESULTS: Among the 197 patients enrolled, 170 and 158 patients entered the second-year and third-year open-label phase extensional study, respectively, whereas 153 patients completed the 144-week follow-up. The virological response rate over the 144-week period was 87.7% and 92.1% in BSV-BSV and TDF-BSV groups, respectively (P = 0.36). The rates of ALT normalization and HBeAg seroconversion were similar between the groups. No drug-resistant mutations to BSV were noted. Bone mineral density and renal function were well preserved in the BSV-BSV group and were significantly improved after switching therapy in TDF-BSV patients. DISCUSSION: This extensional study of a phase 3 trial (NCT01937806) suggests that BSV treatment is efficacious and safe for long-term use in treatment-naïve and TDF-experienced patients with CHB.

Nonheavy Drinking and Worsening of Noninvasive Fibrosis Markers in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Cohort Study.

The effect of modest alcohol consumption on fibrosis progression in the general population with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains unclear. We examined the association of nonheavy alcohol consumption with worsening of noninvasive fibrosis indices in a large-scale, low-risk population with NAFLD. A cohort study was performed in 58,927 Korean adults with NAFLD and low fibrosis scores who were followed for a median of 4.9 years. Non-, light, and moderate drinkers were defined as 0 g/day, 1-9.9 g/day, and 10-29.9 g/day (10-19.9 g/day for women), respectively. Progression from low to intermediate or high probability of advanced fibrosis was assessed using noninvasive indices including NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) and Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4). A parametric proportional hazards model was used to estimate the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During 347,925.4 person-years of follow-up, 5,630 subjects with low FIB-4 progressed to intermediate or high FIB-4. The multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) for worsening of FIB-4 comparing light and moderate drinkers with nondrinkers were 1.06 (0.98-1.16) and 1.29 (1.18-1.40), respectively. Similarly, using NFS, corresponding HRs (95% CI) comparing light and moderate drinkers with nondrinkers were 1.09 (1.02-1.16) and 1.31 (1.23-1.40), respectively. Furthermore, the association of moderate drinkers with worsening of either FIB-4 or NFS remained significant after introducing alcohol use and confounders treated as time-varying covariates. Conclusion: In this large-scale cohort of young and middle-aged individuals with NAFLD, nonheavy alcohol consumption, especially moderate alcohol consumption, was significantly and independently associated with worsening of noninvasive markers of fibrosis, indicating that even moderate alcohol consumption might be harmful.

Alcoholic and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and associations with coronary artery calcification: evidence from the Kangbuk Samsung Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: Recent evidence suggests that alcoholic fatty liver disease (AFLD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may differentially affect risk of cardiovascular mortality. To investigate whether early liver disease due to AFLD or NAFLD have similar or dissimilar effects on risk of early coronary artery atherosclerosis, we have investigated the associations between AFLD and NAFLD and coronary artery calcium (CAC). DESIGN: A cross-sectional study was performed in 105 328 Korean adults who attended a health check-up programme. CAC score was assessed using CT, daily alcohol intake was recorded as grams/day and liver fat by ultrasound. Logistic regression model was used to calculate ORs with 95% CIs for prevalent CAC. RESULTS: Both NAFLD and AFLD were positively associated with CAC score. After adjusting for potential confounders, multivariable-adjusted OR (95% CIs) for CAC >0 comparing NAFLD and AFLD to the reference (absence of both excessive alcohol use and fatty liver disease) were 1.10 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.16) and 1.20 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.30), respectively. In post hoc analysis, OR (95% CI) for detectable CAC comparing AFLD to NAFLD was 1.09 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.17). Associations of NAFLD and AFLD with CAC scores were similar in both non-obese and obese individuals without significant interaction by obesity (p for interaction=0.088). After adjusting for homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance and high-sensitivity C reactive protein, the associations between fatty liver disease and CAC scores remained statistically significant. CONCLUSION: In this large sample of young and middle-aged individuals, early liver disease due to NAFLD and AFLD were both significantly associated with the presence of coronary artery calcification.

Obesity and Weight Gain Are Associated With Progression of Fibrosis in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The effects of weight change on the progression of liver fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the general population are unclear. We evaluated the association of weight change and baseline body mass index (BMI) with fibrosis progression, determined by non-invasive measurement of a marker, in young and middle-aged adults with NAFLD. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of 40,700 adults with NAFLD in Korea who received regular health screening examinations and were followed for a median 6.0 years. Weight change was defined as the difference between weights measured at baseline and at a subsequent follow-up visit. The progression from a low to an intermediate or high probability of advanced fibrosis was assessed using the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI). RESULTS: During 275,421.5 person-years of follow-up, 5454 subjects with a low APRI progressed to an intermediate or high APRI. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for APRI progression, determined by comparing the first and second weight change quintiles (the weight-loss group) and the fourth and fifth quintiles (weight-gain group) with the third quintile (weight-stable group, reference), were 0.68 (95% CI, 0.62-0.74), 0.86 (95% CI, 0.78-0.94), 1.17 (95% CI, 1.07-1.28), and 1.71 (95% CI, 1.58-1.85), respectively. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for APRI progression were determined by comparing subjects with BMIs of 23-24.9, 25-29.9, and ≥30 with subjects with BMIs of 18.5-22.9 kg/m2 (reference); these ratios were 1.13 (95% CI, 1.02-1.26), 1.41 (95% CI, 1.28-1.55), and 2.09 (95% CI, 1.86-2.36), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a prospective cohort study of 40,700 adults with NAFLD, we found obesity and weight gain to be independently associated with increased risk of fibrosis progression, based on APRI. Maintaining a normal healthy weight and preventing weight gain may help reduce fibrosis progression in individuals with NAFLD.