Impact of anti-arrhythmic drugs and catheter ablation on the survival of patients with atrial fibrillation: a population study based on 199 433 new-onset atrial fibrillation patients in the UK.

AIMS: Utilizing real-world UK data, we aimed to understand: (i) whether anti-arrhythmic drugs and catheter ablation are effective in improving the survival of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and (ii) which rhythm control option produces better results for the whole AF population and for specific groups of patients, stratified by age, sex, and history of heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified 199 433 individuals (mean age at diagnosis 75.7 ± 12.7 years; 50.2% women) with new-onset AF diagnosis in nationwide electronic health records linking primary care consultation with hospital data and death registry data from 1998 to 2016. We investigated the survival and causes of death of new-onset AF patients receiving vs. not-receiving rhythm control therapies. During a median follow-up of 2.7 (0.7-6.0) years, we observed a significantly lower mortality in patients receiving rhythm control [multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84-0.88]. Pulmonary vein isolation was associated with a two-third significant mortality reduction compared with no rhythm control (HR = 0.36, 95% CI 0.28-0.48), flecainide with 50% reduction (HR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.48-0.57), and propafenone and sotalol with reduction by a third (HR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.50-0.81, 0.71, 95% CI 0.68-0.74, respectively). Amiodarone showed no survival benefit in individuals <70 years (HR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.97-1.02). Otherwise, the effect of rhythm control on survival did not differ by age, sex, nor history of heart failure. CONCLUSION: Among individuals with new-onset AF, favourable survival was observed for patients receiving rhythm control treatment. Among different rhythm control strategies, pulmonary vein isolation showed the most pronounced survival benefit.

Incidence, morbidity, mortality and disparities in dementia: A population linked electronic health records study of 4.3 million individuals.

INTRODUCTION: We report dementia incidence, comorbidities, reasons for health-care visits, mortality, causes of death, and examined dementia patterns by relative deprivation in the UK. METHOD: A longitudinal cohort analysis of linked electronic health records from 4.3 million people in the UK was conducted to investigate dementia incidence and mortality. Reasons for hospitalization and causes of death were compared in individuals with and without dementia. RESULTS: From 1998 to 2016 we observed 145,319 (3.1%) individuals with incident dementia. Repeated hospitalizations among senior adults for infection, unknown morbidity, and multiple primary care visits for chronic pain were observed prior to dementia diagnosis. Multiple long-term conditions are present in half of the individuals at the time of diagnosis. Individuals living in high deprivation areas had higher dementia incidence and high fatality. DISCUSSION: There is a considerable disparity of dementia that informs priorities of prevention and provision of patient care.

Increased burden of cardiovascular disease in people with liver disease: unequal geographical variations, risk factors and excess years of life lost.

BACKGROUND: People with liver disease are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD), however, there has yet been an investigation of incidence burden, risk, and premature mortality across a wide range of liver conditions and cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: We employed population-wide electronic health records (EHRs; from 1998 to 2020) consisting of almost 4 million adults to assess regional variations in disease burden of five liver conditions, alcoholic liver disease (ALD), autoimmune liver disease, chronic hepatitis B infection (HBV), chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV) and NAFLD, in England. We analysed regional differences in incidence rates for 17 manifestations of CVD in people with or without liver disease. The associations between biomarkers and comorbidities and risk of CVD in patients with liver disease were estimated using Cox models. For each liver condition, we estimated excess years of life lost (YLL) attributable to CVD (i.e., difference in YLL between people with or without CVD). RESULTS: The age-standardised incidence rate for any liver disease was 114.5 per 100,000 person years. The highest incidence was observed in NAFLD (85.5), followed by ALD (24.7), HCV (6.0), HBV (4.1) and autoimmune liver disease (3.7). Regionally, the North West and North East regions consistently exhibited high incidence burden. Age-specific incidence rate analyses revealed that the peak incidence for liver disease of non-viral aetiology is reached in individuals aged 50-59 years. Patients with liver disease had a two-fold higher incidence burden of CVD (2634.6 per 100,000 persons) compared to individuals without liver disease (1339.7 per 100,000 persons). When comparing across liver diseases, atrial fibrillation was the most common initial CVD presentation while hypertrophic cardiomyopathy was the least common. We noted strong positive associations between body mass index and current smoking and risk of CVD. Patients who also had diabetes, hypertension, proteinuric kidney disease, chronic kidney disease, diverticular disease and gastro-oesophageal reflex disorders had a higher risk of CVD, as do patients with low albumin, raised C-reactive protein and raised International Normalized Ratio levels. All types of CVD were associated with shorter life expectancies. When evaluating excess YLLs by age of CVD onset and by liver disease type, differences in YLLs, when comparing across CVD types, were more pronounced at younger ages. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a public online app ( https://lailab.shinyapps.io/cvd_in_liver_disease/ ) to showcase results interactively. We provide a blueprint that revealed previously underappreciated clinical factors related to the risk of CVD, which differed in the magnitude of effects across liver diseases. We found significant geographical variations in the burden of liver disease and CVD, highlighting the need to devise local solutions. Targeted policies and regional initiatives addressing underserved communities might help improve equity of access to CVD screening and treatment.

Bleeding in cardiac patients prescribed antithrombotic drugs: electronic health record phenotyping algorithms, incidence, trends and prognosis.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines and public health authorities lack recommendations on scalable approaches to defining and monitoring the occurrence and severity of bleeding in populations prescribed antithrombotic therapy. METHODS: We examined linked primary care, hospital admission and death registry electronic health records (CALIBER 1998-2010, England) of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina or stable angina with the aim to develop algorithms for bleeding events. Using the developed bleeding phenotypes, Kaplan-Meier plots were used to estimate the incidence of bleeding events and we used Cox regression models to assess the prognosis for all-cause mortality, atherothrombotic events and further bleeding. RESULTS: We present electronic health record phenotyping algorithms for bleeding based on bleeding diagnosis in primary or hospital care, symptoms, transfusion, surgical procedures and haemoglobin values. In validation of the phenotype, we estimated a positive predictive value of 0.88 (95% CI 0.64, 0.99) for hospitalised bleeding. Amongst 128,815 patients, 27,259 (21.2%) had at least 1 bleeding event, with 5-year risks of bleeding of 29.1%, 21.9%, 25.3% and 23.4% following diagnoses of atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina and stable angina, respectively. Rates of hospitalised bleeding per 1000 patients more than doubled from 1.02 (95% CI 0.83, 1.22) in January 1998 to 2.68 (95% CI 2.49, 2.88) in December 2009 coinciding with the increased rates of antiplatelet and vitamin K antagonist prescribing. Patients with hospitalised bleeding and primary care bleeding, with or without markers of severity, were at increased risk of all-cause mortality and atherothrombotic events compared to those with no bleeding. For example, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.98 (95% CI 1.86, 2.11) for primary care bleeding with markers of severity and 1.99 (95% CI 1.92, 2.05) for hospitalised bleeding without markers of severity, compared to patients with no bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Electronic health record bleeding phenotyping algorithms offer a scalable approach to monitoring bleeding in the population. Incidence of bleeding has doubled in incidence since 1998, affects one in four cardiovascular disease patients, and is associated with poor prognosis. Efforts are required to tackle this iatrogenic epidemic.

Personalising the decision for prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy: development, validation and potential impact of prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding in myocardial infarction survivors.

Aims: The aim of this study is to develop models to aid the decision to prolong dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) that requires balancing an individual patient's potential benefits and harms. Methods and results: Using population-based electronic health records (EHRs) (CALIBER, England, 2000-10), of patients evaluated 1 year after acute myocardial infarction (MI), we developed (n = 12 694 patients) and validated (n = 5613) prognostic models for cardiovascular (cardiovascular death, MI or stroke) events and three different bleeding endpoints. We applied trial effect estimates to determine potential benefits and harms of DAPT and the net clinical benefit of individuals. Prognostic models for cardiovascular events (c-index: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.77)) and bleeding (c index 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.77)) were well calibrated: 3-year risk of cardiovascular events was 16.5% overall (5.2% in the lowest- and 46.7% in the highest-risk individuals), while for major bleeding, it was 1.7% (0.3% in the lowest- and 5.4% in the highest-risk patients). For every 10 000 patients treated per year, we estimated 249 (95% CI: 228, 269) cardiovascular events prevented and 134 (95% CI: 87, 181) major bleeding events caused in the highest-risk patients, and 28 (95% CI: 19, 37) cardiovascular events prevented and 9 (95% CI: 0, 20) major bleeding events caused in the lowest-risk patients. There was a net clinical benefit of prolonged DAPT in 63-99% patients depending on how benefits and harms were weighted. Conclusion: Prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding using population-based EHRs may help to personalise decisions for prolonged DAPT 1-year following acute MI.

Acute myocardial infarction: a comparison of short-term survival in national outcome registries in Sweden and the UK.

BACKGROUND: International research for acute myocardial infarction lacks comparisons of whole health systems. We assessed time trends for care and outcomes in Sweden and the UK. METHODS: We used data from national registries on consecutive patients registered between 2004 and 2010 in all hospitals providing care for acute coronary syndrome in Sweden and the UK. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality 30 days after admission. We compared effectiveness of treatment by indirect casemix standardisation. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01359033. FINDINGS: We assessed data for 119,786 patients in Sweden and 391,077 in the UK. 30-day mortality was 7·6% (95% CI 7·4-7·7) in Sweden and 10·5% (10·4-10·6) in the UK. Mortality was higher in the UK in clinically relevant subgroups defined by troponin concentration, ST-segment elevation, age, sex, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus status, and smoking status. In Sweden, compared with the UK, there was earlier and more extensive uptake of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (59% vs 22%) and more frequent use of ß blockers at discharge (89% vs 78%). After casemix standardisation the 30-day mortality ratio for UK versus Sweden was 1·37 (95% CI 1·30-1·45), which corresponds to 11,263 (95% CI 9620-12,827) excess deaths, but did decline over time (from 1·47, 95% CI 1·38-1·58 in 2004 to 1·20, 1·12-1·29 in 2010; p=0·01). INTERPRETATION: We found clinically important differences between countries in acute myocardial infarction care and outcomes. International comparisons research might help to improve health systems and prevent deaths. FUNDING: Seventh Framework Programme for Research, National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust (UK), Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions, Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation.

Utility and acceptability of remote 6-lead electrocardiographic monitoring in children with inherited cardiac conditions.

OBJECTIVE: This pilot study sought to investigate the utility and acceptability of the KardiaMobile 6-lead ECG (KM6LECG) as a tool for remote monitoring in children with inherited cardiac conditions. DESIGN: A single-centre prospective cohort study. Children underwent standard clinical evaluation including a 12-lead ECG and a KM6LECG in the clinic. Participants recorded KM6LECGs monthly at home for 3 months. Families completed a questionnaire on their experience. SETTING: Great Ormond Street Hospital Centre for Inherited Cardiovascular Diseases. PARTICIPANTS: 64 children: 22 with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM); 22 with long QT syndrome and 20 unaffected siblings (controls). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparison of data extracted from the clinic 12-lead ECG and supervised KM6LECG, and the supervised and unsupervised KM6LECG recording. RESULTS: Of 64 children (35% female, mean age 12 years), 58 had a baseline 12-lead ECG and appropriate baseline KM6LECG. In children with HCM, abnormalities in ventricular depolarisation/repolarisation in the limb leads of the 12-lead ECG were reliably reproduced. From the whole cohort, there was a strong positive correlation between the corrected QT interval from the 12-lead ECG and baseline KM6LECG (intraclass correlation coefficient=0.839) and baseline KM6LECG with an unsupervised KM6LECG (intraclass correlation coefficient=0.736). Suspected 'lead' misplacement impacted 18% of unsupervised recordings. Overall, the acceptability of the KM6LECG to families was good. CONCLUSIONS: The KM6LECG provides an accurate tool for assessing some ECG abnormalities associated with paediatric inherited cardiovascular disease and may provide a useful at-home adjunct to face-to-face clinical care of children requiring ECG assessment.

Novel Multiplexed Plasma Biomarker Panel Has Diagnostic and Prognostic Potential in Children With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is defined clinically by pathological left ventricular hypertrophy. We have previously developed a plasma proteomics biomarker panel that correlates with clinical markers of disease severity and sudden cardiac death risk in adult patients with HCM. The aim of this study was to investigate the utility of adult biomarkers and perform new discoveries in proteomics for childhood-onset HCM. METHODS: Fifty-nine protein biomarkers were identified from an exploratory plasma proteomics screen in children with HCM and augmented into our existing multiplexed targeted liquid chromatography-tandem/mass spectrometry-based assay. The association of these biomarkers with clinical phenotypes and outcomes was prospectively tested in plasma collected from 148 children with HCM and 50 healthy controls. Machine learning techniques were used to develop novel pediatric plasma proteomic biomarker panels. RESULTS: Four previously identified adult HCM markers (aldolase fructose-bisphosphate A, complement C3a, talin-1, and thrombospondin 1) and 3 new markers (glycogen phosphorylase B, lipoprotein a and profilin 1) were elevated in pediatric HCM. Using supervised machine learning applied to training (n=137) and validation cohorts (n=61), this 7-biomarker panel differentiated HCM from healthy controls with an area under the curve of 1.0 in the training data set (sensitivity 100% [95% CI, 95-100]; specificity 100% [95% CI, 96-100]) and 0.82 in the validation data set (sensitivity 75% [95% CI, 59-86]; specificity 88% [95% CI, 75-94]). Reduced circulating levels of 4 other peptides (apolipoprotein L1, complement 5b, immunoglobulin heavy constant epsilon, and serum amyloid A4) found in children with high sudden cardiac death risk provided complete separation from the low and intermediate risk groups and predicted mortality and adverse arrhythmic outcomes (hazard ratio, 2.04 [95% CI, 1.0-4.2]; P=0.044). CONCLUSIONS: In children, a 7-biomarker proteomics panel can distinguish HCM from controls with high sensitivity and specificity, and another 4-biomarker panel identifies those at high risk of adverse arrhythmic outcomes, including sudden cardiac death.

Electronic health record-wide association study for atrial fibrillation in a British cohort.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) confers a major healthcare burden from hospitalisations and AF-related complications, such as stroke and heart failure. We performed an electronic health records-wide association study to identify the most frequent reasons for healthcare utilization, pre and post new-onset AF. Methods: Prospective cohort study with the linked electronic health records of 5.6 million patients in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (1998-2016). A cohort study with AF patients and their age-and sex matched controls was implemented to compare the top 100 reasons of frequent hospitalisation and primary consultation. Results: Of the 199,433 patients who developed AF, we found the most frequent healthcare interactions to be cardiac, cerebrovascular and peripheral-vascular conditions, both prior to AF diagnosis (41/100 conditions in secondary care, such as cerebral infarction and valve diseases; and 33/100 conditions in primary care), and subsequently (47/100 conditions hospital care and 48 conditions in primary care). There was a high representation of repeated visits for cancer and infection affecting multiple organ systems. We identified 10 novel conditions which have not yet been associated with AF: folic acid deficiency, pancytopenia, idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, seborrheic dermatitis, lymphoedema, angioedema, laryngopharyngeal reflux, rib fracture, haemorrhagic gastritis, inflammatory polyneuropathies. Conclusion: Our nationwide data provide knowledge and better understanding of the clinical needs of AF patients suggesting: (i) groups at higher risk of AF, where screening may be more cost-effective, and (ii) potential complications developing following new-onset AF that can be prevented through implementation of comprehensive integrated care management and more personalised, tailored treatment. Clinical trial registration: NCT04786366.

Prognostic model for atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a UK cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a validated clinical prognostic model to determine the risk of atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery as part of the PARADISE project (NIHR131227). METHODS: Prospective cohort study with linked electronic health records from a cohort of 5.6 million people in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 1998 to 2016. For model development, we considered a priori candidate predictors including demographics, medical history, medications, and clinical biomarkers. We evaluated associations between covariates and the AF incidence at the end of follow-up using logistic regression with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The model was validated internally with the bootstrap method; subsequent performance was examined by discrimination quantified with the c-statistic and calibration assessed by calibration plots. The study follows TRIPOD guidelines. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2016, 33,464 patients received cardiac surgery among the 5,601,803 eligible individuals. The final model included 13-predictors at baseline: age, year of index surgery, elevated CHA2DS2-VASc score, congestive heart failure, hypertension, acute coronary syndromes, mitral valve disease, ventricular tachycardia, valve surgery, receiving two combined procedures (e.g., valve replacement + coronary artery bypass grafting), or three combined procedures in the index procedure, statin use, and ethnicity other than white or black (statins and ethnicity were protective). This model had an optimism-corrected C-statistic of 0.68 both for the derivation and validation cohort. Calibration was good. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a model to identify a group of individuals at high risk of AF and adverse outcomes who could benefit from long-term arrhythmia monitoring, risk factor management, rhythm control and/or thromboprophylaxis.

Multimorbidity patterns and risk of hospitalisation in children: A population cohort study of 3.6 million children in England, with illustrative examples from childhood cancer survivors.

Background: Population-level estimates of hospitalisation risk in children are currently limited. The study aims to characterise morbidity patterns in all children, focusing on childhood cancer survivors versus children without cancer. Methods: Employing hospital records of children aged <19 years between 1997 to 2018 in England, we characterised morbidity patterns in childhood cancer survivors compared with children without cancer. The follow-up began on the 5th anniversary of the index hospitalisation and the primary outcome was the incidence of comorbidities. Findings: We identified 3,559,439 eligible participants having 12,740,666 hospital admissions, with a mean age at study entry of 11.2 years. We identified 32,221 patients who survived for at least 5 years since their initial cancer diagnosis. During the follow-up period and within the whole population of 3.6 million children, the leading conditions for admission were (i) metabolic, endocrine, digestive renal and genitourinary conditions (84,749, 2.5%), (ii) neurological (35,833, 1.0%) and (iii) musculoskeletal or skin conditions (23,574, 0.7%), fever, acute respiratory and sepsis (22,604, 0.7%). Stratified analyses revealed that females and children from socioeconomically deprived areas had a higher cumulative incidence for morbidities requiring hospitalisation (p < 0.001). At baseline (5 years after the initial cancer diagnosis or initial hospitalisation for survivors and population comparisons, respectively), cancer survivors experienced a higher prevalence of individual conditions and multimorbidity (≥ 2 morbidities) compared with children without cancer. Cox regression analyses showed that survivors had at least a 4-fold increase in the risk of hospitalisation for conditions such as chronic eye conditions (hazard ration (HR):4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.5-4.7), fever requiring hospitalisation (HR: 4.4, 95% CI: 3.8-5.0), subsequent neoplasms (HR: 5.7, 95% CI:5.0-6.5), immunological disorders (HR: 6.5, 95% CI:4.5-9.3) and metabolic conditions (HR: 7.1, 95% CI:5.9-8.5). Interpretation: The overall morbidity burden among children was low in general; however, childhood cancer survivors experienced a higher prevalence and subsequent risk of hospitalisation for a range of morbidities. Targeted policies may be required to promote awareness on health vulnerabilities and gender disparity and to improve advocacy for healthcare in deprived communities. Funding: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Great Ormond Street Hospital Biomedical Research Centre and Academy of Medical Sciences. The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.

A population-based study of 92 clinically recognized risk factors for heart failure: co-occurrence, prognosis and preventive potential.

AIMS: Primary prevention strategies for heart failure (HF) have had limited success, possibly due to a wide range of underlying risk factors (RFs). Systematic evaluations of the prognostic burden and preventive potential across this wide range of risk factors are lacking. We aimed at estimating evidence, prevalence and co-occurrence for primary prevention and impact on prognosis of RFs for incident HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We systematically reviewed trials and observational evidence of primary HF prevention across 92 putative aetiologic RFs for HF identified from US and European clinical practice guidelines. We identified 170 885 individuals aged ≥30 years with incident HF from 1997 to 2017, using linked primary and secondary care UK electronic health records (EHR) and rule-based phenotypes (ICD-10, Read Version 2, OPCS-4 procedure and medication codes) for each of 92 RFs. Only 10/92 factors had high quality observational evidence for association with incident HF; 7 had effective randomized controlled trial (RCT)-based interventions for HF prevention (RCT-HF), and 6 for cardiovascular disease prevention, but not HF (RCT-CVD), and the remainder had no RCT-based preventive interventions (RCT-0). We were able to map 91/92 risk factors to EHR using 5961 terms, and 88/91 factors were represented by at least one patient. In the 5 years prior to HF diagnosis, 44.3% had ≥4 RFs. By RCT evidence, the most common RCT-HF RFs were hypertension (48.5%), stable angina (34.9%), unstable angina (16.8%), myocardial infarction (15.8%), and diabetes (15.1%); RCT-CVD RFs were smoking (46.4%) and obesity (29.9%); and RCT-0 RFs were atrial arrhythmias (17.2%), cancer (16.5%), heavy alcohol intake (14.9%). Mortality at 1 year varied across all 91 factors (lowest: pregnancy-related hormonal disorder 4.2%; highest: phaeochromocytoma 73.7%). Among new HF cases, 28.5% had no RCT-HF RFs and 38.6% had no RCT-CVD RFs. 15.6% had either no RF or only RCT-0 RFs. CONCLUSION: One in six individuals with HF have no recorded RFs or RFs without trials. We provide a systematic map of primary preventive opportunities across a wide range of RFs for HF, demonstrating a high burden of co-occurrence and the need for trials tackling multiple RFs.

Health status after treatment for coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes trial.

BACKGROUND: Health status is a key outcome for comparing treatments, particularly when mortality does not differ significantly. METHODS AND RESULTS: Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) randomized 2368 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and stable ischemic heart disease to (1) prompt revascularization versus medical therapy and (2) insulin sensitization versus insulin provision. Randomization was stratified by the intended method of revascularization, coronary artery bypass graft surgery or percutaneous coronary intervention. The Duke Activity Status Index and RAND Energy, Health Distress, and Self-Rated Health scales were assessed at study entry and annually thereafter; linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effect of randomized treatment on these measures. Health status improved significantly from baseline to 1 year (P<0.001) in each randomized treatment group. Compared with medical therapy, prompt revascularization was associated with significantly greater improvements in Duke Activity Status Index (1.32 points; P<0.001), Energy (1.36 points; P=0.02), and Self-rated Health (1.77 points; P=0.007) but not Health Distress (-0.47; P=0.46). These treatment effects were largely maintained over 4 years of follow-up. The effect of revascularization on the Duke Activity Status Index was significantly larger in the subgroup of patients intended for coronary artery bypass graft surgery compared with the subgroup intended for percutaneous coronary intervention. Health status did not differ significantly on any of the 4 measures between the insulin provision and insulin sensitization strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Prompt coronary revascularization was associated with small yet statistically significant improvements in health status compared with initial medical therapy among patients with diabetes mellitus and stable ischemic heart disease. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00006305.

Body mass index and health status in the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes Trial (BARI 2D).

BACKGROUND: The longitudinal association between obesity, weight variability, and health status outcomes is important for patients with coronary disease and diabetes. METHODS: The BARI 2D was a multicenter randomized clinical trial designed to evaluate treatment strategies for patients with both documented stable ischemic heart disease and type 2 diabetes. We examined BARI 2D participants for 4 years to study how body mass index (BMI) was associated with health status outcomes. Health status was evaluated by the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI), RAND Energy/fatigue, Health Distress, and Self-rated Health. Body mass index was measured quarterly throughout follow-up years, and health status was assessed at each annual follow-up visit. Variation in BMI measures was separated into between-person and within-person change in longitudinal analysis. RESULTS: Higher mean BMI during follow-up years (the between-person BMI) was associated with poorer health status outcomes. Decreasing BMI (the within-person BMI change) was associated with better Self-rated health. The relationships between BMI variability and DASI or Energy appeared to be curvilinear and differed by baseline obesity status. Decreasing BMI was associated with better outcomes if patients were obese at baseline but was associated with poorer DASI and Energy outcomes if patients were nonobese at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with stable ischemic heart disease and diabetes, weight gain was associated with poorer health status outcomes, independent of obesity-related comorbidities. Weight reduction is associated with better functional capacity and perceived energy for obese patients but not for nonobese patients at baseline.

Atrial fibrillation epidemiology, disparity and healthcare contacts: a population-wide study of 5.6 million individuals.

Background: We aimed to evaluate atrial fibrillation occurrence, reasons for healthcare visits, mortality, causes of death and examined patterns by relative deprivation in the UK. Methods: To study the atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence, mortality and case-fatality, we implemented a prospective cohort study with the linked electronic health records of 5.6 million population in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 1998 to 2016. A matched case-control study was used to investigate causes of hospitalisation and death comparing individuals with and without incident AF. Results: During a median follow-up of 10.3 years, 199,433(3.6%) patients developed incident AF. Increased risk of hospitalisation for heart failure, cardiovascular conditions and infection was present among patients who later developed AF. Following an AF diagnosis, patients were frequently admitted to the hospital for heart failure, lower respiratory tract infection, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and ischemic heart disease. One in 5 AF patients died during the first year after diagnosis, and the mortality increased to 42.7% at the fifth year. The excess deaths in AF cases compared to controls may result from cardiovascular diseases, infection and metabolic disorders. Individuals from areas with higher deprivation in socioeconomic and living status had both higher AF incidence and fatality. Interpretation: We observed an elevated risk of hospitalisation for cardiovascular or respiratory diseases among incident AF patients, and the considerable disparity in AF burden by socioeconomic deprivation informs priorities for prevention and provision of patient care. Funding: The study was supported by the GlaxoSmithKline, University College London Hospital and National Institute for Health Research. The funders did not have any role in study design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation, and writing of the report.

Lessons from countries implementing find, test, trace, isolation and support policies in the rapid response of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically learn lessons from the experiences of countries implementing find, test, trace, isolate, support (FTTIS) in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN, DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We searched MEDLINE (PubMed), Cochrane Library, SCOPUS and JSTOR, initially between 31 May 2019 and 21 January 2021. Research articles and reviews on the use of contact tracing, testing, self-isolation and quarantine for COVID-19 management were included in the review. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We extracted information including study objective, design, methods, main findings and implications. These were tabulated and a narrative synthesis was undertaken given the diverse research designs, methods and implications. RESULTS: We identified and included 118 eligible studies. We identified the core elements of an effective find, test, trace, isolate, support (FTTIS) system needed to interrupt the spread of a novel infectious disease, where treatment or vaccination was not yet available, as pertained in the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. We report methods used to shorten case finding time, improve accuracy and efficiency of tests, coordinate stakeholders and actors involved in an FTTIS system, support individuals isolating and make appropriate use of digital tools. CONCLUSIONS: We identified in our systematic review the key components of an FTTIS system. These include border controls, restricted entry, inbound traveller quarantine and comprehensive case finding; repeated testing to minimise false diagnoses and pooled testing in resource-limited circumstances; extended quarantine period and the use of digital tools for contact tracing and self-isolation. Support for mental or physical health and livelihoods is needed for individuals undergoing self-isolation/quarantine. An integrated system with rolling-wave planning can best use effective FTTIS tools to respond to the fast-changing COVID-19 pandemic. Results of the review may inform countries considering implementing these measures.

Why We Are Losing the War Against COVID-19 on the Data Front and How to Reverse the Situation.

With over 117 million COVID-19-positive cases declared and the death count approaching 3 million, we would expect that the highly digitalized health systems of high-income countries would have collected, processed, and analyzed large quantities of clinical data from patients with COVID-19. Those data should have served to answer important clinical questions such as: what are the risk factors for becoming infected? What are good clinical variables to predict prognosis? What kinds of patients are more likely to survive mechanical ventilation? Are there clinical subphenotypes of the disease? All these, and many more, are crucial questions to improve our clinical strategies against the epidemic and save as many lives as possible. One might assume that in the era of big data and machine learning, there would be an army of scientists crunching petabytes of clinical data to answer these questions. However, nothing could be further from the truth. Our health systems have proven to be completely unprepared to generate, in a timely manner, a flow of clinical data that could feed these analyses. Despite gigabytes of data being generated every day, the vast quantity is locked in secure hospital data servers and is not being made available for analysis. Routinely collected clinical data are, by and large, regarded as a tool to inform decisions about individual patients, and not as a key resource to answer clinical questions through statistical analysis. The initiatives to extract COVID-19 clinical data are often promoted by private groups of individuals and not by health systems, and are uncoordinated and inefficient. The consequence is that we have more clinical data on COVID-19 than on any other epidemic in history, but we have failed to analyze this information quickly enough to make a difference. In this viewpoint, we expose this situation and suggest concrete ideas that health systems could implement to dynamically analyze their routine clinical data, becoming learning health systems and reversing the current situation.