Prioritization of intervention domains to prevent cardiovascular disease: a country-level case study using global burden of disease and local data.

AIM: We aimed to combine Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data and local data to identify the highest priority intervention domains for preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the case study country of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: Risk factor data for CVD in NZ were extracted from the GBD using the "GBD Results Tool." We prioritized risk factor domains based on consideration of the size of the health burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and then by the domain-specific interventions that delivered the highest health gains and cost-savings. RESULTS: Based on the size of the CVD health burden in DALYs, the five top prioritized risk factor domains were: high systolic blood pressure (84,800 DALYs; 5400 deaths in 2019), then dietary risk factors, then high LDL cholesterol, then high BMI and then tobacco (30,400 DALYs; 1400 deaths). But if policy-makers aimed to maximize health gain and cost-savings from specific interventions that have been studied, then they would favor the dietary risk domain (e.g., a combined fruit and vegetable subsidy plus a sugar tax produced estimated lifetime savings of 894,000 health-adjusted life years and health system cost-savings of US$11.0 billion; both 3% discount rate). Other potential considerations for prioritization included the potential for total health gain that includes non-CVD health loss and potential for achieving relatively greater per capita health gain for Maori (Indigenous) to reduce health inequities. CONCLUSIONS: We were able to show how CVD risk factor domains could be systematically prioritized using a mix of GBD and country-level data. Addressing high systolic blood pressure would be the top ranked domain if policy-makers focused just on the size of the health loss. But if policy-makers wished to maximize health gain and cost-savings using evaluated interventions, dietary interventions would be prioritized, e.g., food taxes and subsidies.

Prescribing Smartphone Apps for Physical Activity Promotion in Primary Care: Modeling Study of Health Gain and Cost Savings.

BACKGROUND: Inadequate physical activity is a substantial cause of health loss worldwide, and this loss is attributable to diseases such as coronary heart disease, diabetes, stroke, and certain forms of cancer. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the potential impact of the prescription of smartphone apps in primary care settings on physical activity levels, health gains (in quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]), and health system costs in New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: A proportional multistate lifetable model was used to estimate the change in physical activity levels and predict the resultant health gains in QALYs and health system costs over the remaining life span of the NZ population alive in 2011 at a 3% discount rate. RESULTS: The modeled intervention resulted in an estimated 430 QALYs gained (95% uncertainty interval 320-550), with net cost savings of 2011 NZ $2.2 million (2011 US $1.5 million) over the remaining life span of the 2011 NZ population. On a per capita basis, QALY gains were generally larger in women than in men and larger in Maori than in non-Maori. The health impact and cost-effectiveness of the intervention were highly sensitive to assumptions on intervention uptake and decay. For example, the scenario analysis with the largest benefits, which assumed a 5-year maintenance of additional physical activity levels, delivered 1750 QALYs and 2011 NZ $22.5 million (2011 US $15.1 million) in cost savings. CONCLUSIONS: The prescription of smartphone apps for promoting physical activity in primary care settings is likely to generate modest health gains and cost savings at the population level in this high-income country. Such gains may increase with ongoing improvements in app design and increased health worker promotion of the apps to patients.

Dietary patterns associated with meeting the WHO free sugars intake guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: Emerging evidence suggests that free sugars intake in many countries exceeds that recommended by the WHO. However, information regarding real-world dietary patterns associated with meeting the WHO free sugars guidelines is lacking. The current study aimed to determine dietary patterns associated with meeting the guidelines to inform effective free sugars reduction interventions in New Zealand (NZ) and similar high-income countries. DESIGN: Dietary patterns were derived using principal component analysis on repeat 24-h NZ Adult Nutrition Survey dietary recall data. Associations between dietary patterns and the WHO guidelines (<5 and <10 % total energy intake) were determined using logistic regression analyses. SETTING: New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: NZ adults (n 4721) over 15 years old. RESULTS: Eight dietary patterns were identified: 'takeaway foods and alcohol' was associated with meeting both WHO guidelines; 'contemporary' was associated with meeting the <10 % guideline (males only); 'fast foods, sugar-sweetened beverages and dessert', 'traditional' and 'breakfast foods' were negatively associated with meeting both guidelines; 'sandwich' and 'snack foods' were negatively associated with the <5 % guideline; and 'saturated fats and sugar' was negatively associated with the <10 % guideline. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of NZ dietary patterns were not consistent with WHO free sugars guidelines. It is possible to meet the WHO guidelines while consuming a healthier ('contemporary') or energy-dense, nutrient-poor ('takeaway foods and alcohol') diet. However, the majority of energy-dense patterns were not associated with meeting the guidelines. Future nutrition interventions would benefit from focusing on establishing healthier overall diets and reducing consumption and free sugars content of key foods.

Health benefits and costs of weight-loss dietary counselling by nurses in primary care: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of brief weight-loss counselling by dietitian-trained practice nurses, in a high-income-country case study. DESIGN: A literature search of the impact of dietary counselling on BMI was performed to source the 'best' effect size for use in modelling. This was combined with multiple other input parameters (e.g. epidemiological and cost parameters for obesity-related diseases, likely uptake of counselling) in an established multistate life-table model with fourteen parallel BMI-related disease life tables using a 3 % discount rate. SETTING: New Zealand (NZ). PARTICIPANTS: We calculated quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained and health-system costs over the remainder of the lifespan of the NZ population alive in 2011 (n 4·4 million). RESULTS: Counselling was estimated to result in an increase of 250 QALY (95 % uncertainty interval -70, 560 QALY) over the population's lifetime. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 2011 $NZ 138 200 per QALY gained (2018 $US 102 700). Per capita QALY gains were higher for Maori (Indigenous population) than for non-Maori, but were still not cost-effective. If willingness-to-pay was set to the level of gross domestic product per capita per QALY gained (i.e. 2011 $NZ 45 000 or 2018 $US 33 400), the probability that the intervention would be cost-effective was 2 %. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides modelling-level evidence that brief dietary counselling for weight loss in primary care generates relatively small health gains at the population level and is unlikely to be cost-effective.

Potential Country-level Health and Cost Impacts of Legalizing Domestic Sale of Vaporized Nicotine Products.

BACKGROUND: The net impact on population health and health system costs of vaporized nicotine products is uncertain. We modeled, with uncertainty, the health and cost impacts of liberalizing the vaporized nicotine market for a high-income country, New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: We used a multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases to simulate lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and health system costs at a 0% discount rate. We incorporated transitions from never, former, and current smoker states to, and from, regularly using vaporized nicotine and literature estimates for relative risk of disease incidence for vaping compared with smoking. RESULTS: Compared with continuation of baseline trends in smoking uptake and cessation rates and negligible vaporized nicotine use, we projected liberalizing the market for these products to gain 236,000 QALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 27,000 to 457,000) and save NZ$3.4 billion (2011 NZ$) (95% UI = NZ$370 million to NZ$7.1 billion) or US$2.5 billion (2017 NZ$). However, estimates of net health gains for 0- to 14-year olds and 65+ year olds had 95% UIs including the null. Uncertainty around QALYs gained was mainly driven by uncertainty around the impact of vaporized nicotine products on population-wide cessation rates and the relative health risk of vaping compared with smoking. CONCLUSIONS: This modeling suggested that a fairly permissive regulatory environment around vaporized nicotine products achieves net health gain and cost savings, albeit with wide uncertainty. Our results suggest that optimal strategies will also be influenced by targeted smoking cessation advice, regulations around chemical constituents of these products, and marketing and age limits to prevent youth uptake of vaping.

Estimating the health benefits and cost-savings of a cap on the size of single serve sugar-sweetened beverages.

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake is associated with tooth decay, obesity and diabetes. We aimed to model the health and cost impact of reducing the serving size of all single serve SSB to a maximum of 250 ml in New Zealand. A 250 ml serving size cap was modeled for all instances of single serves (<600 ml) of sugar-sweetened carbonated soft drinks, fruit drinks, carbonated energy drinks, and sports drinks in the New Zealand National Nutrition Survey intake data (2008/09). A multi-state life-table model used the change in energy intake and therefore BMI to predict the resulting health gains in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and health system costs over the remaining life course of the New Zealand population alive in 2011 (N = 4.4 million, 3% discounting). The 'base case' model (no compensation for reduced energy intake) resulted in an average reduction in SSB and energy intake of 23 ml and 44 kJ (11 kcal) per day or 0.22 kg of weight modeled over two years. The total health gain and cost-savings were 82,100 QALYs (95% UI: 65100 to 101,000) and NZ$1.65 billion [b] (95% UI: 1.19 b to 2.24 b, (US$1.10 b)) over the lifespan of the cohort. QALY gains increased to 116,000 when the SSB definition was widened to include fruit juices and sweetened milks. A cap on single serve SSB could be an effective part of a suite of obesity prevention and sugar reduction interventions in high income countries.

Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice: a modelling study of the future smoking prevalence, health and cost impacts.

OBJECTIVE: Restricting tobacco sales to pharmacies only, including the provision of cessation advice, has been suggested as a potential measure to hasten progress towards the tobacco endgame. We aimed to quantify the impacts of this hypothetical intervention package on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs for a country with an endgame goal: New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: We used two peer-reviewed simulation models: 1) a dynamic population forecasting model for smoking prevalence and 2) a closed cohort multi-state life-table model for future health gains and costs by sex, age and ethnicity. Greater costs due to increased travel distances to purchase tobacco were treated as an increase in the price of tobacco. Annual cessation rates were multiplied with the effect size for brief opportunistic cessation advice on sustained smoking abstinence. RESULTS: The intervention package was associated with a reduction in future smoking prevalence, such that by 2025 prevalence was 17.3%/6.8% for Maori (Indigenous)/non-Maori compared to 20.5%/8.1% projected under no intervention. The measure was furthermore estimated to accrue 41 700 discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 33 500 to 51 600) over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lives. Of these QALYs gained, 74% were due to the provision of cessation advice over and above the limiting of sales to pharmacies. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides modelling-level evidence that the package of restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice in these settings can accelerate progress towards the tobacco endgame, and achieve large population health benefits and cost-savings. :.

Mass media promotion of a smartphone smoking cessation app: modelled health and cost-saving impacts.

BACKGROUND: Smartphones are increasingly available and some high quality apps are available for smoking cessation. However, the cost-effectiveness of promoting such apps has never been studied. We therefore aimed to estimate the health gain, inequality impacts and cost-utility from a five-year promotion campaign of a smoking cessation smartphone app compared to business-as-usual (no app use for quitting). METHODS: A well-established Markov macro-simulation model utilising a multi-state life-table was adapted to the intervention (lifetime horizon, 3% discount rate). The setting was the New Zealand (NZ) population (N = 4.4 million). The intervention effect size was from a multi-country randomised trial: relative risk for quitting at 6 months = 2.23 (95%CI: 1.08 to 4.77), albeit subsequently adjusted to consider long-term relapse. Intervention costs were based on NZ mass media promotion data and the NZ cost of attracting a smoker to smoking cessation services (NZ$64 per person). RESULTS: The five-year intervention was estimated to generate 6760 QALYs (95%UI: 5420 to 8420) over the remaining lifetime of the population. For Maori (Indigenous population) there was 2.8 times the per capita age-standardised QALY gain relative to non-Maori. The intervention was also estimated to be cost-saving to the health system (saving NZ$115 million [m], 95%UI: 72.5m to 171m; US$81.8m). The cost-saving aspect of the intervention was maintained in scenario and sensitivity analyses where the discount rate was doubled to 6%, the effect size halved, and the intervention run for just 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides modelling-level evidence that mass-media promotion of a smartphone app for smoking cessation could generate health gain, reduce ethnic inequalities in health and save health system costs. Nevertheless, there are other tobacco control measures which generate considerably larger health gains and cost-savings such as raising tobacco taxes.

Impact of five tobacco endgame strategies on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs: two modelling studies to inform the tobacco endgame.

OBJECTIVE: There is growing international interest in advancing 'the tobacco endgame'. We use New Zealand (Smokefree goal for 2025) as a case study to model the impacts on smoking prevalence (SP), health gains (quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)) and cost savings of (1) 10% annual tobacco tax increases, (2) a tobacco-free generation (TFG), (3) a substantial outlet reduction strategy, (4) a sinking lid on tobacco supply and (5) a combination of 1, 2 and 3. METHODS: Two models were used: (1) a dynamic population forecasting model for SP and (2) a closed cohort (population alive in 2011) multistate life table model (including 16 tobacco-related diseases) for health gains and costs. RESULTS: All selected tobacco endgame strategies were associated with reductions in SP by 2025, down from 34.7%/14.1% for Maori (indigenous population)/non-Maori in 2011 to 16.0%/6.8% for tax increases; 11.2%/5.6% for the TFG; 17.8%/7.3% for the outlet reduction; 0% for the sinking lid; and 9.3%/4.8% for the combined strategy. Major health gains accrued over the remainder of the 2011 population's lives ranging from 28 900 QALYs (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI)): 16 500 to 48 200; outlet reduction) to 282 000 QALYs (95%UI: 189 000 to 405 000; sinking lid) compared with business-as-usual (3% discounting). The timing of health gain and cost savings greatly differed for the various strategies (with accumulated health gain peaking in 2040 for the sinking lid and 2070 for the TFG). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing endgame strategies is needed to achieve tobacco endgame targets and reduce inequalities in smoking. Given such strategies are new, modelling studies provide provisional information on what approaches may be best.

A national quitline service and its promotion in the mass media: modelling the health gain, health equity and cost-utility.

BACKGROUND: Mass media campaigns and quitlines are both important distinct components of tobacco control programmes around the world. But when used as an integrated package, the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness are not well described. We therefore aimed to estimate the health gain, health equity impacts and cost-utility of the package of a national quitline service and its promotion in the mass media. METHODS: We adapted an established Markov and multistate life-table macro-simulation model. The population was all New Zealand adults in 2011. Effect sizes and intervention costs were based on past New Zealand quitline data. Health system costs were from a national data set linking individual health events to costs. RESULTS: The 1-year operation of the existing intervention package of mass media promotion and quitline service was found to be net cost saving to the health sector for all age groups, sexes and ethnic groups (saving $NZ84 million; 95%uncertainty interval 60-115 million in the base-case model). It also produced greater per capita health gains for Maori (indigenous) than non-Maori (2.2 vs 0.73 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per 1000 population, respectively). The net cost saving of the intervention was maintained in all sensitivity and scenario analyses for example at a discount rate of 6% and when the intervention effect size was quartered (given the possibility of residual confounding in our estimates of smoking cessation). Running the intervention for 20 years would generate an estimated 54 000 QALYs and $NZ1.10 billion (US$0.74 billion) in cost savings. CONCLUSIONS: The package of a quitline service and its promotion in the mass media appears to be an effective means to generate health gain, address health inequalities and save health system costs. Nevertheless, the role of this intervention needs to be compared with other tobacco control and health sector interventions, some of which may be even more cost saving.

Impact of increasing tobacco taxes on working-age adults: short-term health gain, health equity and cost savings.

OBJECTIVE: The health gains and cost savings from tobacco tax increase peak many decades into the future. Policy-makers may take a shorter-term perspective and be particularly interested in the health of working-age adults (given their role in economic productivity). Therefore, we estimated the impact of tobacco taxes in this population within a 10-year horizon. METHODS: As per previous modelling work, we used a multistate life table model with 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, parameterised with rich national data by sex, age and ethnicity. The intervention modelled was 10% annual increases in tobacco tax from 2011 to 2020 in the New Zealand population (n=4.4 million in 2011). The perspective was that of the health system, and the discount rate used was 3%. RESULTS: For this 10-year time horizon, the total health gain from the tobacco tax in discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in the 20-65 year age group (age at QALY accrual) was 180 QALYs or 1.6% of the lifetime QALYs gained in this age group (11 300 QALYs). Nevertheless, for this short time horizon: (1) cost savings in this group amounted to NZ$10.6 million (equivalent to US$7.1 million; 95% uncertainty interval: NZ$6.0 million to NZ$17.7 million); and (2) around two-thirds of the QALY gains for all ages occurred in the 20-65 year age group. Focusing on just the preretirement and postretirement ages, the QALY gains in each of the 60-64 and 65-69 year olds were 11.5% and 10.6%, respectively, of the 268 total QALYs gained for all age groups in 2011-2020. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of the health benefit over a 10-year horizon from increasing tobacco taxes is accrued in the working-age population (20-65 years). There remains a need for more work on the associated productivity benefits of such health gains.

Five year trends in the serve size, energy, and sodium contents of New Zealand fast foods: 2012 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: The nutritional composition of foods and beverages consumed away from the home has important implications for population health. Our objective was to determine if the serve size, energy, and sodium contents of fast foods sold at chain restaurants in New Zealand (NZ) changed between 2012 and 2016. METHODS: Serve size and nutrient data were collected in annual cross-sectional surveys of all products sold at 10 major fast food chains. Changes over time may occur due to alterations in product availability or individual product reformulation. Linear regression adjusting for food group and chain was used to estimate overall changes in serve size and nutrients. Random effects mixed models were used to estimate reformulation changes on same products available for two or more years. RESULTS: Across all products (n = 5468) increases were observed in mean serve size (+ 9 (3, 15) g, + 5%), energy density (+ 54 (27, 81) kJ/100 g, + 6%), energy per serve (+ 178 (125, 231) kJ, + 14%), and sodium per serve (+ 55 (24, 87) mg, + 12%). Sodium density did not change significantly. Four of 12 food groups (Desserts, Pizza, Sandwiches, and Salads) and four of 10 fast food chains (Domino's, Hell Pizza, Pizza Hut, and Subway) displayed large, undesirable changes for three or more (of five) outcomes (≥10%; p < 0.05). One food group (Asian) and one chain (St Pierre's) displayed large, desirable changes for two or more outcomes. The only significant reformulation change was a drop in sodium density (- 22 (- 36, - 8) mg/100 g, - 7%). CONCLUSIONS: The serve size and energy density of NZ fast food products has increased significantly over the past 5 years. Lower sodium concentration in new and reformulated products has been offset by overall increases in serve size. Continued monitoring and development and implementation of Government-led targets for serve size and nutrient content of new and existing fast food products are required.

Correction: Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001856.].

Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population.

BACKGROUND: Since there is some evidence that the density and distribution of tobacco retail outlets may influence smoking behaviours, we aimed to estimate the impacts of 4 tobacco outlet reduction interventions in a country with a smoke-free goal: New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: A multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases, using national data by sex, age and ethnicity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and net costs over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lifetime. The outlet reduction interventions assumed that increased travel costs can be operationalised as equivalent to price increases in tobacco. RESULTS: All 4 modelled interventions led to reductions of >89% of current tobacco outlets after the 10-year phase-in process. The most effective intervention limited sales to half of liquor stores (and nowhere else) at 129 000 QALYs gained over the lifetime of the population (95% UI: 74 100 to 212 000, undiscounted). The per capita QALY gains were up to 5 times greater for Maori (indigenous population) compared to non-Maori. All interventions were cost-saving to the health system, with the largest saving for the liquor store only intervention: US$1.23 billion (95% UI: $0.70 to $2.00 billion, undiscounted). CONCLUSIONS: These tobacco outlet reductions reduced smoking prevalence, achieved health gains and saved health system costs. Effects would be larger if outlet reductions have additional spill-over effects (eg, smoking denormalisation). While these interventions were not as effective as tobacco tax increases (using the same model), these and other strategies could be combined to maximise health gain and to maximise cost-savings to the health system.

Modeling health gains and cost savings for ten dietary salt reduction targets.

BACKGROUND: Dietary salt reduction is included in the top five priority actions for non-communicable disease control internationally. We therefore aimed to identify health gain and cost impacts of achieving a national target for sodium reduction, along with component targets in different food groups. METHODS: We used an established dietary sodium intervention model to study 10 interventions to achieve sodium reduction targets. The 2011 New Zealand (NZ) adult population (2.3 million aged 35+ years) was simulated over the remainder of their lifetime in a Markov model with a 3 % discount rate. RESULTS: Achieving an overall 35 % reduction in dietary salt intake via implementation of mandatory maximum levels of sodium in packaged foods along with reduced sodium from fast foods/restaurant food and discretionary intake (the "full target"), was estimated to gain 235,000 QALYs over the lifetime of the cohort (95 % uncertainty interval [UI]: 176,000 to 298,000). For specific target components the range was from 122,000 QALYs gained (for the packaged foods target) down to the snack foods target (6100 QALYs; and representing a 34-48 % sodium reduction in such products). All ten target interventions studied were cost-saving, with the greatest costs saved for the mandatory "full target" at NZ$1260 million (US$820 million). There were relatively greater health gains per adult for men and for Maori (indigenous population). CONCLUSIONS: This work provides modeling-level evidence that achieving dietary sodium reduction targets (including specific food category targets) could generate large health gains and cost savings for a national health sector. Demographic groups with the highest cardiovascular disease rates stand to gain most, assisting in reducing health inequalities between sex and ethnic groups.

Can a dietary quality score derived from a short-form FFQ assess dietary quality in UK adult population surveys?

OBJECTIVE: To devise a measure of diet quality from a short-form FFQ (SFFFQ) for population surveys. To validate the SFFFQ against an extensive FFQ and a 24 h diet recall. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional survey. SETTING: East Leeds and Bolton in Northern England. SUBJECTS: Adults (n 1999) were randomly selected from lists of those registered with a general practitioner in the study areas, contacted by mail and asked to complete the SFFFQ. Responders were sent a longer FFQ to complete and asked if they would take part in a telephone-based 24 h diet recall. RESULTS: Results from 826 people completing the SFFFQ, 705 completing the FFQ and forty-seven completing the diet recall were included in the analyses. The dietary quality score (DQS), based on fruit, vegetable, oily fish, non-milk extrinsic sugar and fat intakes, showed significant agreement between the SFFFQ and the FFQ (κ=0·38, P<0·001). The DQS for the SFFFQ and the diet recall did not show significant agreement (κ=0·04, P=0·312). A number of single items on the SFFFQ predicted a 'healthy' DQS when calculated from the FFQ. The odds of having a healthy diet were increased by 27 % (95 % CI 9, 49 %, P<0·001) for an increase in fruit of 1 portion/d and decreased by 67 % (95 % CI 47, 79 %, P<0·001) for an increase in crisps of 1 portion/d. CONCLUSIONS: The SFFFQ has been shown to be an effective method of assessing diet quality. It provides an important method for determining variations in diet quality within and across different populations.

The health gains and cost savings of dietary salt reduction interventions, with equity and age distributional aspects.

BACKGROUND: A "diet high in sodium" is the second most important dietary risk factor for health loss identified in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. We therefore aimed to model health gains and costs (savings) of salt reduction interventions related to salt substitution and maximum levels in bread, including by ethnicity and age. We also ranked these four interventions compared to eight other modelled interventions. METHODS: A Markov macro-simulation model was used to estimate QALYs gained and net health system costs for four dietary sodium reduction interventions, discounted at 3 % per annum. The setting was New Zealand (NZ) (2.3 million adults, aged 35+ years) which has detailed individual-level administrative cost data. RESULTS: The health gain was greatest for an intervention where most (59 %) of the sodium in processed foods was replaced by potassium and magnesium salts. This intervention gained 294,000 QALYs over the remaining lifetime of the cohort (95 % UI: 238,000 to 359,000; 0.13 QALY per 35+ year old). Such salt substitution also produced the highest net cost-savings of NZ$ 1.5 billion (US$ 1.0 billion) (95 % UI: NZ$ 1.1 to 2.0 billion). All interventions generated relatively larger per capita QALYs for men vs women and for the indigenous Maori population vs non-Maori (e.g., 0.16 vs 0.12 QALYs per adult for the 59 % salt substitution intervention). Of relevance to workforce productivity, in the first 10 years post-intervention, 22 % of the QALY gain was among those aged <65 years (and 37 % for those aged <70). CONCLUSIONS: The benefits are consistent with the international literature, with large health gains and cost savings possible from some, but not all, sodium reduction interventions. Health gain appears likely to occur among working-age adults and all interventions contributed to reducing health inequalities.

Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

BACKGROUND: There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. METHODS/DESIGN: The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. DISCUSSION: The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy options. Findings will inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 (registered 3 February 2016).

Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 ["business as usual," BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000-419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US$2,550 million (95% UI: US$1,480 to US$4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Maori (indigenous population) compared to non-Maori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Maori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Maori and non-Maori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45-64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD burden and health inequalities, they will also need to complement tobacco tax increases with additional tobacco control interventions focused on cessation.

The broader health benefits of optimised dietary thresholds proposed for type 2 diabetes prevention in Aotearoa New Zealand: simulation modelling.

AIM: Optimised dietary thresholds for type 2 diabetes prevention exist; however, they likely have additional benefits beyond diabetes prevention. We have modelled the effects of the proposed dietary thresholds on Health-Adjusted Life Years (HALY), health inequities and health system cost in Aotearoa New Zealand. METHODS: We created a national diet scenario using the optimised thresholds and compared it with current intakes using an established multistate life table. The primary model considered change in outcome from increasing intakes of fruits, vegetables, nuts and seeds while decreasing red meat and sugar-sweetened beverages. A separate secondary nutrient-based model considered change due to increasing whole grains and yoghurt while decreasing refined grains, potatoes and fruit juice. Both models considered the direct non-weight mediated associations between diet and disease. RESULTS: In the primary model, adopting the dietary thresholds produced clear benefit to Aotearoa New Zealand in terms of HALY (1.2 million years [95%UI 1.0-1.5]), and a health system cost saving of $17.9 billion (95%UI 13.6-23.2) over the population life course. HALY gain was at least 1.8 times higher for Maori than non-Maori. The secondary model indicated further gains in HALY for all population groups and health systems costs. CONCLUSION: These striking benefits of altering current dietary intakes provide strong evidence of the need for change. Such change requires government commitment to an overarching food strategy in Aotearoa New Zealand to build supportive food environments that enable healthy choices at affordable prices.