Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Mechanical ventilation variables associated with high pulmonary artery pressures in ARDS patients: a post hoc analysis.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between indices of mechanical ventilation and pulmonary artery pressures remains ill-defined in ARDS. As our understanding of mechanical ventilation has progressed, there is now a greater appreciation of the impact of high driving pressures and mechanical power in perpetuating lung injury. However, the relationship between the newer derived indices of mechanical ventilation and pulmonary artery pressure is unclear. We performed a post hoc analysis of the Fluid and Catheters Treatment Trial (FACTT) trial to investigate the associations between mechanical ventilation indices in ARDS patients and the prevalence of pulmonary hypertension. This may help elucidate future clinical targets for more, right ventricular protective, mechanical ventilation strategies. METHODS: We performed a post hoc analysis of the FACTT database to identify ARDS patients who had a pulmonary artery catheter (PAC) inserted and pulmonary artery pressure readings recorded. We excluded any patient with a PAC inserted who was spontaneously breathing, as driving pressure and mechanical power are not validated in this cohort. Three independent analyses were performed: a univariate analysis, to assess for associations between mPAP and mechanical ventilation parameters using Pearson correlation coefficients, a multivariate analysis, to assess for independent associations with mPAP using a multiple regression model according to Akaike's information criteria and finally an analysis for nonlinearity, using the best-fitting model according to the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) from linear, quadratic, fractional polynomial and restricted cubic spline models. RESULTS: All the ventilation parameters demonstrated a significant correlation with mPAP, except tidal volume (once adjusted for respiratory rate) in the univariate analysis. The multivariate analysis demonstrated that the blood pH level, P/F ratio, PaCO2 level, mean airway pressure and the mechanical power indexed to compliance were independently associated with mPAP. In the final nonlinear analysis, associations did not differ from linearity except for 4 variables for which the fractional polynomial was the best-fitting model. These were mechanical power (p = 0.01 compared to the linear model), respiratory rate (p = 0.04), peak pressure (p = 0.03) and mean airway pressure (p = 0.01). Two nonlinear variables associated with mPAP were assessed in more detail, respiratory rate and mechanical power. Inflexion points at a respiratory rate of 16.8 cycles per minute and a mechanical power of 8.8 J/min were demonstrated. CONCLUSIONS: The associations identified between mPAP and mechanical ventilation variables in this analysis would suggest that classical ARDS lung protective strategies, including low tidal volume ventilation and permissive hypercapnia, may negatively impact the management of the subset of ARDS patients with associated right ventricular dysfunction or ACP. Additionally, respiratory rates above 17 cycles per minute show an incremental increase in mPAP. Therefore, increases in tidal volume (within the limitation of driving pressure < 18 cmH20) may represent a more right ventricular protective way to control CO2 and pH.

The Prognostic Significance of Quantitative Myocardial Perfusion: An Artificial Intelligence-Based Approach Using Perfusion Mapping.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial perfusion reflects the macro- and microvascular coronary circulation. Recent quantitation developments using cardiovascular magnetic resonance perfusion permit automated measurement clinically. We explored the prognostic significance of stress myocardial blood flow (MBF) and myocardial perfusion reserve (MPR, the ratio of stress to rest MBF). METHODS: A 2-center study of patients with both suspected and known coronary artery disease referred clinically for perfusion assessment. Image analysis was performed automatically using a novel artificial intelligence approach deriving global and regional stress and rest MBF and MPR. Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for comorbidities and cardiovascular magnetic resonance parameters sought associations of stress MBF and MPR with death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), including myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure hospitalization, late (>90 day) revascularization, and death. RESULTS: A total of 1049 patients were included with a median follow-up of 605 (interquartile range, 464-814) days. There were 42 (4.0%) deaths and 188 MACE in 174 (16.6%) patients. Stress MBF and MPR were independently associated with both death and MACE. For each 1 mL·g-1·min-1 decrease in stress MBF, the adjusted hazard ratios for death and MACE were 1.93 (95% CI, 1.08-3.48, P=0.028) and 2.14 (95% CI, 1.58-2.90, P<0.0001), respectively, even after adjusting for age and comorbidity. For each 1 U decrease in MPR, the adjusted hazard ratios for death and MACE were 2.45 (95% CI, 1.42-4.24, P=0.001) and 1.74 (95% CI, 1.36-2.22, P<0.0001), respectively. In patients without regional perfusion defects on clinical read and no known macrovascular coronary artery disease (n=783), MPR remained independently associated with death and MACE, with stress MBF remaining associated with MACE only. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease, reduced MBF and MPR measured automatically inline using artificial intelligence quantification of cardiovascular magnetic resonance perfusion mapping provides a strong, independent predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

Subclinical Changes in Cardiac Functional Parameters as Determined by Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance (CMR) Imaging in Sleep Apnea and Snoring: Findings from UK Biobank.

Background and Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder with an increased risk for left ventricular and right ventricular dysfunction. Most studies to date have examined populations with manifest cardiovascular disease using echocardiography to analyze ventricular dysfunction with little or no reference to ventricular volumes or myocardial mass. Our aim was to explore these parameters with cardiac MRI. We hypothesized that there would be stepwise increase in left ventricular mass and right ventricular volumes from the unaffected, to the snoring and the OSA group. Materials and Methods: We analyzed cardiac MRI data from 4978 UK Biobank participants free from cardiovascular disease. Participants were allocated into three cohorts: with OSA, with self-reported snoring and without OSA or snoring (n = 118, 1886 and 2477). We analyzed cardiac parameters from balanced cine-SSFP sequences and indexed them to body surface area. Results: Patients with OSA were mostly males (47.3% vs. 79.7%; p < 0.001) with higher body mass index (25.7 ± 4.0 vs. 31.3 ± 5.3 kg/m²; p < 0.001) and higher blood pressure (135 ± 18 vs. 140 ± 17 mmHg; p = 0.012) compared to individuals without OSA or snoring. Regression analysis showed a significant effect for OSA in left ventricular end-diastolic index (LVEDVI) (ß = -4.9 ± 2.4 mL/m²; p = 0.040) and right ventricular end-diastolic index (RVEDVI) (ß = -6.2 ± 2.6 mL/m²; p = 0.016) in females and for right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF) (ß = 1.7 ± 0.8%; p = 0.031) in males. A significant effect was discovered in snoring females for left ventricular mass index (LVMI) (ß = 3.5 ± 0.9 g/m²; p < 0.001) and in males for left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (ß = 1.0 ± 0.3%; p = 0.001) and RVEF (ß = 1.2 ± 0.3%; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Our study suggests that OSA is highly underdiagnosed and that it is an evolving process with gender specific progression. Females with OSA show significantly lower ventricular volumes while males with snoring show increased ejection fractions which may be an early sign of hypertrophy. Separate prospective studies are needed to further explore the direction of causality.

Non-HDL or LDL cholesterol in heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia: findings of the Simon Broome Register.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The role of non-HDL-C in the identification and management of lipid disorders is not clearly defined, although UK guidelines recommend its wider use in assessing the need for lipid-lowering therapy and as a treatment target. RECENT FINDINGS: We examined the implications of the use of non-HDL-C as opposed to LDL-C in 253 people with hypercholesterolaemia before treatment and 573 after treatment in whom fasting total serum cholesterol, HDL-C and LDL-C had been recorded and the diagnosis of heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (heFH) was investigated by genetic testing. The difference and the limits of agreement between non-HDL-C and LDL-C calculated using the Friedewald formula were assessed in those with and without heFH-causing mutations. SUMMARY: There were 147 mutation-positive and 106 mutation-negative pretreatment participants and 395 mutation-positive and 178 mutation-negative patients receiving treatment. The difference between non-HDL-C and LDL-C pretreatment in mutation-positive people (mean LDL-C 7.73 mmol/l) was 0.67 mmol/l (95% CI 0.62-0.73) and posttreatment (mean LDL-C 4.71 mmol/l) was 0.62 mmol/l (95% CI 0.59-0.65) with wide limits of agreement of -0.02 to 1.37 and 0.07-1.18 mmol/l, respectively. Among patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia, use of estimated LDL-C derived from non-HDL-C in place of calculated LDL-C may result in diagnostic misclassification and difficulty in assessing the true reduction in LDL-C with treatment, because of the wide inter-individual limits of agreement around the mean difference between non-HDL-C and LDL-C.

Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration: individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies.

AIMS: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. CONCLUSION: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Risk: A Case-Control Study.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a complex multi-morbid disorder with significant cardiac mortality. Current cardiovascular risk prediction models do not include COPD. We investigated whether COPD modifies future cardiovascular risk to determine if it should be considered in risk prediction models.Case-control study using baseline data from two randomized controlled trials performed between 2012 and 2015. Of the 90 eligible subjects, 26 COPD patients with lung hyperinflation were propensity matched for 10-year global cardiovascular risk score (QRISK2) with 26 controls having normal lung function. Patients underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, arterial stiffness and lung function measurements. Differences in pulse wave velocity (PWV), total arterial compliance (TAC) and aortic distensibility were main outcome measures.PWV (mean difference 1.0 m/s, 95% CI 0.02-1.92; p = 0.033) and TAC (mean difference -0.27 mL/m2/mmHg, 95% CI 0.39-0.15; p < 0.001) were adversely affected in COPD compared to the control group. The PWV difference equates to an age, sex and risk-factor adjusted increase in relative risk of cardiovascular events and mortality of 14% and 15%, respectively.There were no differences in aortic distensibility. In the whole cohort (n = 90) QRISK2 (ß = 0.045, p = 0.005) was associated with PWV in multivariate analysis. The relationship between QRISK2 and PWV were modified by COPD, where the interaction term reached significance (p = 0.014). FEV1 (ß = 0.055 (0.027), p = 0.041) and pulse (B = -0.006 (0.002), p = 0.003) were associated with TAC in multivariate analysis.Markers of cardiovascular outcomes are adversely affected in COPD patients with lung hyperinflation compared to controls matched for global cardiovascular risk. Cardiovascular risk algorithms may benefit from the addition of a COPD variable to improve risk prediction and guide management.HAPPY London ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01911910 and HZC116601; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01691885.

Association Between Ambient Air Pollution and Cardiac Morpho-Functional Phenotypes: Insights From the UK Biobank Population Imaging Study.

Background: Exposure to ambient air pollution is strongly associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Little is known about the influence of air pollutants on cardiac structure and function. We aim to investigate the relationship between chronic past exposure to traffic-related pollutants and the cardiac chamber volume, ejection fraction, and left ventricular remodeling patterns after accounting for potential confounders. Methods: Exposure to ambient air pollutants including particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide was estimated from the Land Use Regression models for the years between 2005 and 2010. Cardiac parameters were measured from cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging studies of 3920 individuals free from pre-existing cardiovascular disease in the UK Biobank population study. The median (interquartile range) duration between the year of exposure estimate and the imaging visit was 5.2 (0.6) years. We fitted multivariable linear regression models to investigate the relationship between cardiac parameters and traffic-related pollutants after adjusting for various confounders. Results: The studied cohort was 62±7 years old, and 46% were men. In fully adjusted models, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm concentration was significantly associated with larger left ventricular end-diastolic volume and end-systolic volume (effect size = 0.82%, 95% CI, 0.09-1.55%, P=0.027; and effect size = 1.28%, 95% CI, 0.15-2.43%, P=0.027, respectively, per interquartile range increment in particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm) and right ventricular end-diastolic volume (effect size = 0.85%, 95% CI, 0.12-1.58%, P=0.023, per interquartile range increment in particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm). Likewise, higher nitrogen dioxide concentration was associated with larger biventricular volume. Distance from the major roads was the only metric associated with lower left ventricular mass (effect size = -0.74%, 95% CI, -1.3% to -0.18%, P=0.01, per interquartile range increment). Neither left and right atrial phenotypes nor left ventricular geometric remodeling patterns were influenced by the ambient pollutants. Conclusions: In a large asymptomatic population with no prevalent cardiovascular disease, higher past exposure to particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm and nitrogen dioxide was associated with cardiac ventricular dilatation, a marker of adverse remodeling that often precedes heart failure development.

Assessment of the clinical utility of adding common single nucleotide polymorphism genetic scores to classical risk factor algorithms in coronary heart disease risk prediction in UK men.

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction algorithms for coronary heart disease (CHD) are recommended for clinical use. However, their predictive ability remains modest and the inclusion of genetic risk may improve their performance. METHODS: QRISK2 was used to assess CHD risk using conventional risk factors (CRFs). The performance of a 19 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) gene score (GS) for CHD including variants identified by genome-wide association study and candidate gene studies (weighted using the results from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D meta-analysis) was assessed using the second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHSII) of 2775 healthy UK men (284 cases). To improve the GS, five SNPs with weak evidence of an association with CHD were removed and replaced with seven robustly associated SNPs - giving a 21-SNP GS. RESULTS: The weighted 19 SNP GS was associated with lipid traits (p<0.05) and CHD after adjustment for CRFs, (OR=1.31 per standard deviation, p=0.03). Addition of the 19 SNP GS to QRISK2 showed improved discrimination (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.68 vs. 0.70 p=0.02), a positive net reclassification index (0.07, p=0.04) compared to QRISK2 alone and maintained good calibration (p=0.17). The 21-SNP GS was also associated with CHD after adjustment for CRFs (OR=1.39 per standard deviation, 1.42×10-3), but the combined QRISK2 plus GS score was poorly calibrated (p=0.03) and showed no improvement in discrimination (p=0.55) or reclassification (p=0.10) compared to QRISK2 alone. CONCLUSIONS: The 19-SNP GS is robustly associated with CHD and showed potential clinical utility in the UK population.

Common variants in the genes of triglyceride and HDL-C metabolism lack association with coronary artery disease in the Pakistani subjects.

BACKGROUND: Serum Triglyceride (TG) and High Density Lipoprotein (HDL-C) levels are modifiable coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors. Polymorphisms in the genes regulating TG and HDL-C levels contribute to the development of CAD. The objective of the current study was to investigate the effect of four such single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) in the genes for Lipoprotein Lipase (LPL) (rs328, rs1801177), Apolipoprotein A5 (APOA5) (rs66279) and Cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) (rs708272) on HDL-C and TG levels and to examine the association of these SNPs with CAD risk. METHODS: A total of 640 subjects (415 cases, 225 controls) were enrolled in the study. The SNPs were genotyped by KASPar allelic discrimination technique. Serum HDL-C and TG were determined by spectrophotometric methods. RESULTS: The population under study was in Hardy Weinberg equilibrium and minor allele of SNP rs1801177 was completely absent in the studied subjects. The SNPs were association with TG and HDL-C levels was checked through regression analysis. For rs328, the effect size of each risk allele on TG and HDL-C (mmol/l) was 0.16(0.08) and -0.11(0.05) respectively. Similarly, the effect size of rs662799 for TG and HDL-C was 0.12(0.06) and -0.13(0.0.3) and that of rs708272 was 0.08(0.04) and 0.1(0.03) respectively. The risk allele frequencies of the SNPs were higher in cases than controls, but the difference was not significant (p > 0.05) and SNPs were not associated with CAD risk (p > 0.05). The combined gene score of four SNPs significantly raised TG and lowered HDL-C but did not increase CAD risk. CONCLUSION: The studied SNPs were associated with TG and HDL-C levels, but not with CAD in Pakistani population under study.

Circulating Apolipoprotein E Concentration and Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Meta-analysis of Results from Three Studies.

BACKGROUND: The association of APOE genotype with circulating apolipoprotein E (ApoE) concentration and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is well established. However, the relationship of circulating ApoE concentration and CVD has received little attention. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To address this, we measured circulating ApoE concentration in 9,587 individuals (with 1,413 CVD events) from three studies with incident CVD events: two population-based studies, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the men-only Northwick Park Heart Study II (NPHSII), and a nested sub-study of the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT). We examined the association of circulating ApoE with cardiovascular risk factors in the two population-based studies (ELSA and NPHSII) and the relationship between ApoE concentration and coronary heart disease and stroke in all three studies. Analyses were carried out within study, and, where appropriate, pooled effect estimates were derived using meta-analysis. In the population-based samples, circulating ApoE was associated with systolic blood pressure (correlation coefficient 0.08, p < 0.001, in both ELSA and NPHSII), total cholesterol (correlation coefficient 0.46 and 0.34 in ELSA and NPHSII, respectively; both p < 0.001), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (correlation coefficient 0.30 and 0.14, respectively; both p < 0.001), high-density lipoprotein (correlation coefficient 0.16 and -0.14, respectively; both p < 0.001), and triglycerides (correlation coefficient 0.43 and 0.46, respectivly; both p < 0.001). In NPHSII, ApoE concentration was additionally associated with apolipoprotein B (correlation coefficient 0.13, p = 0.001) and lipoprotein(a) (correlation coefficient -0.11, p < 0.001). In the pooled analysis of ASCOT, ELSA, and NPHSII, there was no association of ApoE with CVD events; the odds ratio (OR) for CVD events per 1-standard-deviation higher ApoE concentration was 1.02 (95% CI 0.96, 1.09). After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, the OR for CVD per 1-standard-deviation higher ApoE concentration was 0.97 (95% CI 0.82, 1.15). Limitations of these analyses include a polyclonal method of ApoE measurement, rather than isoform-specific measurement, a moderate sample size (although larger than any other study to our knowledge and with a long lag between ApoE measures), and CVD events that may attenuate an effect. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest study to date on this question, we found no evidence of an association of circulating ApoE concentration with CVD events. The established association of APOE genotype with CVD events may be explained by isoform-specific functions as well as other mechanisms, rather than circulating concentrations of ApoE.

HMG-coenzyme A reductase inhibition, type 2 diabetes, and bodyweight: evidence from genetic analysis and randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Statins increase the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus. We aimed to assess whether this increase in risk is a consequence of inhibition of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (HMGCR), the intended drug target. METHODS: We used single nucleotide polymorphisms in the HMGCR gene, rs17238484 (for the main analysis) and rs12916 (for a subsidiary analysis) as proxies for HMGCR inhibition by statins. We examined associations of these variants with plasma lipid, glucose, and insulin concentrations; bodyweight; waist circumference; and prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes. Study-specific effect estimates per copy of each LDL-lowering allele were pooled by meta-analysis. These findings were compared with a meta-analysis of new-onset type 2 diabetes and bodyweight change data from randomised trials of statin drugs. The effects of statins in each randomised trial were assessed using meta-analysis. FINDINGS: Data were available for up to 223 463 individuals from 43 genetic studies. Each additional rs17238484-G allele was associated with a mean 0·06 mmol/L (95% CI 0·05-0·07) lower LDL cholesterol and higher body weight (0·30 kg, 0·18-0·43), waist circumference (0·32 cm, 0·16-0·47), plasma insulin concentration (1·62%, 0·53-2·72), and plasma glucose concentration (0·23%, 0·02-0·44). The rs12916 SNP had similar effects on LDL cholesterol, bodyweight, and waist circumference. The rs17238484-G allele seemed to be associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio [OR] per allele 1·02, 95% CI 1·00-1·05); the rs12916-T allele association was consistent (1·06, 1·03-1·09). In 129 170 individuals in randomised trials, statins lowered LDL cholesterol by 0·92 mmol/L (95% CI 0·18-1·67) at 1-year of follow-up, increased bodyweight by 0·24 kg (95% CI 0·10-0·38 in all trials; 0·33 kg, 95% CI 0·24-0·42 in placebo or standard care controlled trials and -0·15 kg, 95% CI -0·39 to 0·08 in intensive-dose vs moderate-dose trials) at a mean of 4·2 years (range 1·9-6·7) of follow-up, and increased the odds of new-onset type 2 diabetes (OR 1·12, 95% CI 1·06-1·18 in all trials; 1·11, 95% CI 1·03-1·20 in placebo or standard care controlled trials and 1·12, 95% CI 1·04-1·22 in intensive-dose vs moderate dose trials). INTERPRETATION: The increased risk of type 2 diabetes noted with statins is at least partially explained by HMGCR inhibition. FUNDING: The funding sources are cited at the end of the paper.

Variant rs10911021 that associates with coronary heart disease in type 2 diabetes, is associated with lower concentrations of circulating HDL cholesterol and large HDL particles but not with amino acids.

AIMS: An intergenic locus on chromosome 1 (lead SNP rs10911021) was previously associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D). Using data from the UCLEB consortium we investigated the relationship between rs10911021 and CHD in T2D, whether rs10911021 was associated with levels of amino acids involved in the γ-glutamyl cycle or any conventional risk factors (CRFs) for CHD in the T2D participants. METHODS: Four UCLEB studies (n = 6531) had rs10911021 imputation, CHD in T2D, CRF and metabolomics data determined using a nuclear magnetic resonance based platform. RESULTS: The expected direction of effect between rs10911021 and CHD in T2D was observed (1377 no CHD/160 CHD; minor allele OR 0.80, 95 % CI 0.60-1.06) although this was not statistically significant (p = 0.13). No association between rs10911021 and CHD was seen in non-T2D participants (11218 no CHD/1274 CHD; minor allele OR 1.00 95 % CIs 0.92-1.10). In T2D participants, while no associations were observed between rs10911021 and the nine amino acids measured, rs10911021 was associated with HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.0005) but the minor "protective" allele was associated with lower levels (-0.034 mmol/l per allele). Focusing more closely on the HDL-cholesterol subclasses measured, we observed that rs10911021 was associated with six large HDL particle measures in T2D (all p < 0.001). No significant associations were seen in non-T2D subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with a true association between rs10911021 and CHD in T2D. The protective minor allele was associated with lower HDL-cholesterol and reductions in HDL particle traits. Our results indicate a complex relationship between rs10911021 and CHD in T2D.

Effect of SORT1, APOB and APOE polymorphisms on LDL-C and coronary heart disease in Pakistani subjects and their comparison with Northwick Park Heart Study II.

BACKGROUND: Many SNPs have been identified in genes regulating LDL-C metabolism, but whether their influence is similar in subjects from different ethnicities is unclear. Effect of 4 such SNPs on LDL-C and coronary heart disease (CHD) was examined in Pakistani subjects and was compared with middle aged UK men from Northwick Park Heart Study II (NPHSII). METHODS: One thousand nine hundred sixty-five (1770 non CHD, 195 CHD) UK and 623 (219 non CHD, 404 CHD) Pakistani subjects were enrolled in the study. The SNPs SORT1 rs646776, APOB rs1042031 and APOE rs429358, rs7412 were genotyped by TaqMan/KASPar technique and their gene score was calculated. LDL-C was calculated by Friedewald equation, results were analyzed using SPSS. RESULTS: Allele frequencies were significantly different (p= <0.05) between UK and Pakistani subjects. However, the SNPs were associated with LDL-C in both groups. In UK non CHD, UK CHD, Pakistani non CHD and Pakistani CHD respectively, for rs646776, per risk allele increase in LDL-C(mmol/l) was 0.18(0.04), 0.06(0.11), 0.15(0.04) and 0.27(0.06) respectively. For rs1042031, per risk allele increase in LDL-C in four groups was 0.11(0.04), 0.04(0.14), 0.15(0.06) and 0.25(0.09) respectively. For APOE genotypes, compared to Ɛ3, each Ɛ2 decreased LDL-C by 0.11(0.06), 0.07(0.15), 0.20(0.08) and 0.38(0.09), while each Ɛ4 increased LDL-C by 0.43(0.06), 0.39(0.21), 0.19(0.11) and 0.39(0.14) respectively. Overall gene score explained a considerable proportion of sample variance in four groups (3.8%, 1.26% 13.7% and 12.3%). Gene score in both non-CHD groups was significantly lower than CHD subjects. CONCLUSIONS: The SNPs show a dose response association with LDL-C levels and risk of CHD in both populations.

The effect of renin angiotensin system genetic variants in acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: We sought association of genetic variants in the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) and vitamin D system with acute pancreatitis (AP) development and severity. BACKGROUND: The endocrine RAS is involved in circulatory homeostasis through the pressor action of angiotensin II at its AT1 receptor. However, local RAS regulate growth and inflammation in diverse cells and tissues, and their activity may be suppressed by vitamin D. Intrapancreatic angiotensin II generation has been implicated in the development of AP. METHODS: Five hundred forty-four white patients with AP from 3 countries (United Kingdom, 22; Germany, 136; and The Netherlands 386) and 8487 control subjects (United Kingdom 7833, The Netherlands 717) were genotyped for 8 polymorphisms of the RAS/vitamin D systems, chosen on the basis of likely functionality. RESULTS: The angiotensin-converting enzyme I (rather than D) allele was significantly associated with alcohol-related AP when all cohorts were combined (P = 0.03). The renin rs5707 G (rather than A) allele was associated with AP (P = 0.002), infected necrosis (P = 0.025) and mortality (P = 0.046). CONCLUSIONS: The association of 2 RAS polymorphisms with AP suggests the need for further detailed analysis of the role of RAS/vitamin D in the genesis or severity of AP, particularly given the ready potential for pharmacological manipulation of this system using existing marketed agents. However, further replication studies will be required before any such association is considered robust, particularly given the significant heterogeneity of AP causation and clinical course.

C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and cardiovascular disease prediction.

BACKGROUND: There is debate about the value of assessing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other biomarkers of inflammation for the prediction of first cardiovascular events. METHODS: We analyzed data from 52 prospective studies that included 246,669 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease to investigate the value of adding CRP or fibrinogen levels to conventional risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. We calculated measures of discrimination and reclassification during follow-up and modeled the clinical implications of initiation of statin therapy after the assessment of CRP or fibrinogen. RESULTS: The addition of information on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a prognostic model for cardiovascular disease that included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level increased the C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, by 0.0050. The further addition to this model of information on CRP or fibrinogen increased the C-index by 0.0039 and 0.0027, respectively (P<0.001), and yielded a net reclassification improvement of 1.52% and 0.83%, respectively, for the predicted 10-year risk categories of "low" (<10%), "intermediate" (10% to <20%), and "high" (≥20%) (P<0.02 for both comparisons). We estimated that among 100,000 adults 40 years of age or older, 15,025 persons would initially be classified as being at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event if conventional risk factors alone were used to calculate risk. Assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥20% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), additional targeted assessment of CRP or fibrinogen levels in the 13,199 remaining participants at intermediate risk could help prevent approximately 30 additional cardiovascular events over the course of 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: In a study of people without known cardiovascular disease, we estimated that under current treatment guidelines, assessment of the CRP or fibrinogen level in people at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event could help prevent one additional event over a period of 10 years for every 400 to 500 people screened. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).

Refinement of variant selection for the LDL cholesterol genetic risk score in the diagnosis of the polygenic form of clinical familial hypercholesterolemia and replication in samples from 6 countries.

BACKGROUND: Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is an autosomal-dominant disorder caused by mutations in 1 of 3 genes. In the 60% of patients who are mutation negative, we have recently shown that the clinical phenotype can be associated with an accumulation of common small-effect LDL cholesterol (LDL-C)-raising alleles by use of a 12-single nucleotide polymorphism (12-SNP) score. The aims of the study were to improve the selection of SNPs and replicate the results in additional samples. METHODS: We used ROC curves to determine the optimum number of LDL-C SNPs. For replication analysis, we genotyped patients with a clinical diagnosis of FH from 6 countries for 6 LDL-C-associated alleles. We compared the weighted SNP score among patients with no confirmed mutation (FH/M-), those with a mutation (FH/M+), and controls from a UK population sample (WHII). RESULTS: Increasing the number of SNPs to 33 did not improve the ability of the score to discriminate between FH/M- and controls, whereas sequential removal of SNPs with smaller effects/lower frequency showed that a weighted score of 6 SNPs performed as well as the 12-SNP score. Metaanalysis of the weighted 6-SNP score, on the basis of polymorphisms in CELSR2 (cadherin, EGF LAG 7-pass G-type receptor 2), APOB (apolipoprotein B), ABCG5/8 [ATP-binding cassette, sub-family G (WHITE), member 5/8], LDLR (low density lipoprotein receptor), and APOE (apolipoprotein E) loci, in the independent FH/M- cohorts showed a consistently higher score in comparison to the WHII population (P < 2.2 × 10(-16)). Modeling in individuals with a 6-SNP score in the top three-fourths of the score distribution indicated a >95% likelihood of a polygenic explanation of their increased LDL-C. CONCLUSIONS: A 6-SNP LDL-C score consistently distinguishes FH/M- patients from healthy individuals. The hypercholesterolemia in 88% of mutation-negative patients is likely to have a polygenic basis.

Use of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol gene score to distinguish patients with polygenic and monogenic familial hypercholesterolaemia: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Familial hypercholesterolaemia is a common autosomal-dominant disorder caused by mutations in three known genes. DNA-based cascade testing is recommended by UK guidelines to identify affected relatives; however, about 60% of patients are mutation-negative. We assessed the hypothesis that familial hypercholesterolaemia can also be caused by an accumulation of common small-effect LDL-C-raising alleles. METHODS: In November, 2011, we assembled a sample of patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia from three UK-based sources and compared them with a healthy control sample from the UK Whitehall II (WHII) study. We also studied patients from a Belgian lipid clinic (Hôpital de Jolimont, Haine St-Paul, Belgium) for validation analyses. We genotyped participants for 12 common LDL-C-raising alleles identified by the Global Lipid Genetics Consortium and constructed a weighted LDL-C-raising gene score. We compared the gene score distribution among patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia with no confirmed mutation, those with an identified mutation, and controls from WHII. FINDINGS: We recruited 321 mutation-negative UK patients (451 Belgian), 319 mutation-positive UK patients (273 Belgian), and 3020 controls from WHII. The mean weighted LDL-C gene score of the WHII participants (0.90 [SD 0.23]) was strongly associated with LDL-C concentration (p=1.4 x 10(-77); R(2)=0.11). Mutation-negative UK patients had a significantly higher mean weighted LDL-C score (1.0 [SD 0.21]) than did WHII controls (p=4.5 x 10(-16)), as did the mutation-negative Belgian patients (0.99 [0.19]; p=5.2 x 10(-20)). The score was also higher in UK (0.95 [0.20]; p=1.6 x 10(-5)) and Belgian (0.92 [0.20]; p=0.04) mutation-positive patients than in WHII controls. 167 (52%) of 321 mutation-negative UK patients had a score within the top three deciles of the WHII weighted LDL-C gene score distribution, and only 35 (11%) fell within the lowest three deciles. INTERPRETATION: In a substantial proportion of patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia without a known mutation, their raised LDL-C concentrations might have a polygenic cause, which could compromise the efficiency of cascade testing. In patients with a detected mutation, a substantial polygenic contribution might add to the variable penetrance of the disease. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Schering-Plough, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, Health and Safety Executive, Department of Health, National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, National Institute on Aging, Agency for Health Care Policy Research, John D and Catherine T MacArthur Foundation Research Networks on Successful Midlife Development and Socio-economic Status and Health, Unilever, and Departments of Health and Trade and Industry.

The interleukin-6 receptor as a target for prevention of coronary heart disease: a mendelian randomisation analysis.

BACKGROUND: A high circulating concentration of interleukin 6 is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease. Blockade of the interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) with a monoclonal antibody (tocilizumab) licensed for treatment of rheumatoid arthritis reduces systemic and articular inflammation. However, whether IL6R blockade also reduces risk of coronary heart disease is unknown. METHODS: Applying the mendelian randomisation principle, we used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the gene IL6R to evaluate the likely efficacy and safety of IL6R inhibition for primary prevention of coronary heart disease. We compared genetic findings with the effects of tocilizumab reported in randomised trials in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. FINDINGS: In 40 studies including up to 133,449 individuals, an IL6R SNP (rs7529229) marking a non-synonymous IL6R variant (rs8192284; p.Asp358Ala) was associated with increased circulating log interleukin-6 concentration (increase per allele 9·45%, 95% CI 8·34-10·57) as well as reduced C-reactive protein (decrease per allele 8·35%, 95% CI 7·31-9·38) and fibrinogen concentrations (decrease per allele 0·85%, 95% CI 0·60-1·10). This pattern of effects was consistent with IL6R blockade from infusions of tocilizumab (4-8 mg/kg every 4 weeks) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis studied in randomised trials. In 25,458 coronary heart disease cases and 100,740 controls, the IL6R rs7529229 SNP was associated with a decreased odds of coronary heart disease events (per allele odds ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·93-0·97, p=1·53×10(-5)). INTERPRETATION: On the basis of genetic evidence in human beings, IL6R signalling seems to have a causal role in development of coronary heart disease. IL6R blockade could provide a novel therapeutic approach to prevention of coronary heart disease that warrants testing in suitably powered randomised trials. Genetic studies in populations could be used more widely to help to validate and prioritise novel drug targets or to repurpose existing agents and targets for new therapeutic uses. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council; British Heart Foundation; Rosetrees Trust; US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; Du Pont Pharma; Chest, Heart and Stroke Scotland; Wellcome Trust; Coronary Thrombosis Trust; Northwick Park Institute for Medical Research; UCLH/UCL Comprehensive Medical Research Centre; US National Institute on Aging; Academy of Finland; Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development; SANCO; Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports; World Cancer Research Fund; Agentschap NL; European Commission; Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation; Swedish Research Council; Strategic Cardiovascular Programme of the Karolinska Institutet; Stockholm County Council; US National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; MedStar Health Research Institute; GlaxoSmithKline; Dutch Kidney Foundation; US National Institutes of Health; Netherlands Interuniversity Cardiology Institute of the Netherlands; Diabetes UK; European Union Seventh Framework Programme; National Institute for Healthy Ageing; Cancer Research UK; MacArthur Foundation.

Association of a sequence variant in DAB2IP with coronary heart disease.

AIMS: A sequence variant, rs7025486[A], in DAB2IP on chromosome 9q33 has recently been associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We sought to replicate this finding and to investigate associations with a panel of inflammatory and haemostatic biomarkers. We also sought to examine whether this variant, in combination with a chromosome 9p21 CHD variant (rs10757278) and the Framingham risk score (FRS), could improve the prediction of events compared with the FRS alone. METHODS AND RESULTS: rs7025486 was genotyped in 1386 CHD cases and 3532 controls and was associated with CHD [odds ratio (OR) of 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.29, P= 0.003]. Meta-analysis, using data from the original report and from genome-wide association studies in both the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium and the Cardiovascular Health Study, comprising 9968 cases and 20 048 controls, confirmed the association (OR of 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.14, P= 3.2 × 10(-6)). There was no association with a panel of CHD biomarkers, including any lipid, inflammation, or coagulation trait, nor with telomere length. Addition to the FRS of this variant plus rs10757278 on chromosome 9p21 improved the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (A(ROC)) from 0.61 to 0.64 (P= 0.03) as well as improving the reclassification (net reclassification index = 11.1%, P= 0.007). CONCLUSION: This study replicates a previous association of a variant in DAB2IP with CHD. Addition of multiple variants improves the performance of predictive models based upon classical cardiovascular risk factors.