Nitrate as a predictor of cyanobacteria biomass in eutrophic lakes in a climate change context.

We aimed to predict cyanobacteria biomass and nitrate (NO3-) concentrations in Lake Võrtsjärv, a large, shallow, and eutrophic lake in Estonia. We used a model chain based on the succession of a mechanistic (INCA-N) model and an empirical, generalized linear model. INCA-N model calibration and validation was performed with long term climate and catchment parameters. We constructed twelve scenarios as combinations of climate forcing from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 3 scenarios), land conversion (forest to agriculture, 2 scenarios), and fertilizer use (2 scenarios). Models predicted 46% of the variance of cyanobacteria biomass and 65% of that of NO3- concentrations. The model chain simulated that scenarios comprising both forest conversion to agricultural lands and a greater use of fertilizer per surface area unit would cause increases in lacustrine NO3- (up to twice the historical mean) and cyanobacteria biomass (up to a four-fold increase compared to the historical mean). The changes in NO3- concentrations and cyanobacteria biomass were more pronounced in low and moderate warming scenarios than in high warming scenarios because of increased denitrification rates in a warmer climate. Our findings show the importance of reducing anthropogenic pressures on lake catchments in order to reduce harmful pollutant and microalgae proliferation, and highlight the counterintuitive effects of multiple stressor interactions on lake functioning.

Summer greenhouse gas fluxes in different types of hemiboreal lakes.

Lakes are considered important regulators of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG). We estimated late summer open water GHG fluxes in nine hemiboreal lakes in Estonia classified under different lake types according to the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). We also used the WFD typology to provide an improved estimate of the total GHG emission from all Estonian lakes with a gross surface area of 2204 km2 representing 45,227 km2 of hemiboreal landscapes (the territory of Estonia). The results demonstrate largely variable CO2 fluxes among the lake types with most active emissions from Alkalitrophic (Alk), Stratified Alkalitrophic (StratAlk), Dark Soft and with predominant binding in Coastal, Very Large, and Light Soft lakes. The CO2 fluxes correlated strongly with dissolved CO2 saturation (DCO2) values at the surface. Highest CH4 emissions were measured from the Coastal lake type, followed by Light Soft, StratAlk, and Alk types; Coastal, Light Soft, and StratAlk were emitting CH4 partly as bubbles. The only emitter of N2O was the Alk type. We measured weak binding of N2O in Dark Soft and Coastal lakes, while in all other studied lake types, the N2O fluxes were too small to be quantified. Diversely from the common viewpoint of lakes as net sources of both CO2 and CH4, it turns out from our results that at least in late summer, Estonian lakes are net sinks of both CO2 alone and the sum of CO2 and CH4. This is mainly caused by the predominant CO2 sink function of Lake Peipsi forming ¾ of the total lake area and showing negative net emissions even after considering the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of other GHGs. Still, by converting CH4 data into CO2 equivalents, the combined emission of all Estonian lakes (8 T C day-1) is turned strongly positive: 2720 T CO2 equivalents per day.

Impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biota across spatial scales and ecosystems.

Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses (that is, additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects). We know little about the spatial scales relevant for the outcomes of such interactions and little about effect sizes. These knowledge gaps need to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems. This study combines data across scales from 33 mesocosm experiments with those from 14 river basins and 22 cross-basin studies in Europe, producing 174 combinations of paired-stressor effects on a biological response variable. Generalized linear models showed that only one of the two stressors had a significant effect in 39% of the analysed cases, 28% of the paired-stressor combinations resulted in additive effects and 33% resulted in interactive (antagonistic, synergistic, opposing or reversal) effects. For lakes, the frequencies of additive and interactive effects were similar for all spatial scales addressed, while for rivers these frequencies increased with scale. Nutrient enrichment was the overriding stressor for lakes, with effects generally exceeding those of secondary stressors. For rivers, the effects of nutrient enrichment were dependent on the specific stressor combination and biological response variable. These results vindicate the traditional focus of lake restoration and management on nutrient stress, while highlighting that river management requires more bespoke management solutions.

The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios.

There are infinite possible future scenarios reflecting the impacts of anthropogenic multiple stress on our planet. These impacts include changes in climate and land cover, to which aquatic ecosystems are especially vulnerable. To assess plausible developments of the future state of European surface waters, we considered two climate scenarios and three storylines describing land use, management and anthropogenic development ('Consensus', 'Techno' and 'Fragmented', which in terms of environmental protection represent best-, intermediate- and worst-case, respectively). Three lake and four river basins were selected, representing a spectrum of European conditions through a range of different human impacts and climatic, geographical and biological characteristics. Using process-based and empirical models, freshwater total nitrogen, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations were projected for 2030 and 2060. Under current conditions, the water bodies mostly fail good ecological status. In future predictions for the Techno and Fragmented World, concentrations further increased, while concentrations generally declined for the Consensus World. Furthermore, impacts were more severe for rivers than for lakes. Main pressures identified were nutrient inputs from agriculture, land use change, inadequately managed water abstractions and climate change effects. While the basins in the Continental and Atlantic regions were primarily affected by land use changes, in the Mediterranean/Anatolian the main driver was climate change. The Boreal basins showed combined impacts of land use and climate change and clearly reflected the climate-induced future trend of agricultural activities shifting northward. The storylines showed positive effects on ecological status by classical mitigation measures in the Consensus World (e.g. riparian shading), technical improvements in the Techno World (e.g. increasing wastewater treatment efficiency) and agricultural extensification in the Fragmented World. Results emphasize the need for implementing targeted measures to reduce anthropogenic impacts and the importance of having differing levels of ambition for improving the future status of water bodies depending on the societal future to be expected.

Factors controlling the three-decade long rise in cyanobacteria biomass in a eutrophic shallow lake.

We aimed at quantifying the importance of limnological variables in the decadal rise of cyanobacteria biomass in shallow hemiboreal lakes. We constructed estimates of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) biomass in a large, eutrophic lake (Estonia, Northeastern Europe) from a database comprising 28 limnological variables and spanning more than 50years of monitoring. Using a dual-model approach consisting in a boosted regression trees (BRT) followed by a generalized least squares (GLS) model, our results revealed that six variables were most influential for assessing the variance of cyanobacteria biomass. Cyanobacteria response to nitrate concentration and rotifer abundance was negative, whereas it was positive to pH, temperature, cladoceran and copepod biomass. Response to total phosphorus (TP) and total phosphorus to total nitrogen ratio was very weak, which suggests that actual in-lake TP concentration is still above limiting values. The most efficient GLS model, which explained nearly two thirds (r2=0.65) of the variance of cyanobacteria biomass included nitrate concentration, water temperature and pH. The very high number of observations (maximum n=525) supports the robustness of the models. Our results suggest that the decadal rise of blue-green algae in shallow lakes lies in the interaction between cultural eutrophication and global warming which bring in-lake physical and chemical conditions closer to cyanobacteria optima.

Effects of warming and nutrients on the microbial food web in shallow lake mesocosms.

We analysed changes in the abundance, biomass and cell size of the microbial food web community (bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, ciliates) at contrasting nutrient concentrations and temperatures during a simulated heat wave. We used 24 mesocosms mimicking shallow lakes in which two nutrient levels (unenriched and enriched by adding nitrogen and phosphorus) and three different temperature scenarios (ambient, IPCC A2 scenario and A2+%50) are simulated (4 replicates of each). Experiments using the mesocosms have been running un-interrupted since 2003. A 1-month heat wave was imitated by an extra 5 °C increase in the previously heated mesocosms (from 1st July to 1st August 2014). Changes in water temperature induced within a few days a strong effect on the microbial food web functioning, demonstrating a quick response of microbial communities to the changes in environment, due to their short generation times. Warming and nutrients showed synergistic effects. Microbial assemblages of heterotrophic nanoflagellates and ciliates responded positively to the heating, the increase being largest in the enriched mesocosms. The results indicate that warming and nutrients in combination can set off complex interactions in the microbial food web functioning.

Summer depth distribution profiles of dissolved CO2 and O2 in shallow temperate lakes reveal trophic state and lake type specific differences.

Knowledge about dissolved oxygen (DO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) distribution in lakes has increased considerably over the last decades. However, studies about high resolution dynamics of dissolved CO2 in different types of lakes over daily or weekly time scales are still very scarce. We measured summertime vertical DO and CO2 profiles at sub-hourly intervals during one week in eight Estonian lakes representing different lake types according to European Water Framework Directive. The lakes showed considerable differences in thermal stratification and vertical distribution of dissolved oxygen and CO2 as well as different diurnal dynamics over the measurement period. We observed a continuous CO2 supersaturation in the upper mixed layer of the alkalitrophic (calcareous groundwater-fed) lake and the dark soft-water lake showing them as CO2 emitting "chimneys" although with different underlying mechanisms. In three lake types strong undersaturation with CO2 occurred in the surface layer characterising them as CO2 sinks for the measurement period while in another three types the surface layer CO2 was mostly in equilibrium with the atmosphere. Factor analysis showed that DO% in the surface layer and the strength of its relationship with CO2% were positively related to alkalinity and negatively to trophic state and DOC gradients, whereas deeper lakes were characterised by higher surface concentration but smaller spatial and temporal variability of CO2. Multiple regression analysis revealed lake area, maximum depth and the light attenuation coefficient as variables affecting the largest number of gas regime indicators. We conclude that the trophic status of lakes in combination with type specific features such as morphometry, alkalinity and colour (DOC) determines the distribution and dynamics of dissolved CO2 and DO, which therefore may indicate functional differences in carbon cycling among lakes.

Role of a productive lake in carbon sequestration within a calcareous catchment.

For a long time, lakes were considered unimportant in the global carbon (C) cycle because of their small total area compared to the ocean. Over the last two decades, a number of studies have highlighted the important role of lakes in both sequestering atmospheric C and modifying the C flux from the catchment by degassing CO2 and methane and burying calcite and organic matter in the sediment. Based on a full C mass balance, high frequency measurements of lake metabolism and stable isotope analysis of a large shallow eutrophic lake in Estonia, we assess the role alkaline lakes play in augmenting the strength of terrestrial carbonate weathering as a temporary CO2 sink. We show that a large part of organic C buried in the sediments in this type of lakes originates from the catchment although a direct uptake from the atmosphere during periods of intensive phytoplankton growth in eutrophic conditions contributes to the carbon sink.

From bacteria to piscivorous fish: estimates of whole-lake and component-specific metabolism with an ecosystem approach.

The influence of functional group specific production and respiration patterns on a lake's metabolic balance remains poorly investigated to date compared to whole-system estimates of metabolism. We employed a summed component ecosystem approach for assessing lake-wide and functional group-specific metabolism (gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (R)) in shallow and eutrophic Lake Võrtsjärv in central Estonia during three years. Eleven functional groups were considered: piscivorous and benthivorous fish; phyto-, bacterio-, proto- and metazooplankton; benthic macroinvertebrates, bacteria and ciliates; macrophytes and their associated epiphytes. Metabolism of these groups was assessed by allometric equations coupled with daily records of temperature and hydrology of the lake and measurements of food web functional groups biomass. Results revealed that heterotrophy dominated most of the year, with a short autotrophic period observed in late spring. Most of the metabolism of the lake could be attributed to planktonic functional groups, with phytoplankton contributing the highest share (90% of GPP and 43% of R). A surge of protozooplankton and bacterioplankton populations forming the microbial loop caused the shift from auto- to heterotrophy in midsummer. Conversely, the benthic functional groups had overall a very small contribution to lake metabolism. We validated our ecosystem approach by comparing the GPP and R with those calculated from O2 measurements in the lake. Our findings are also in line with earlier productivity studies made with 14C or chlorophyll a (chl-a) based equations. Ideally, the ecosystem approach should be combined with diel O2 approach for investigating critical periods of metabolism shifts caused by dynamics in food-web processes.