Scientists' call to action: Microbes, planetary health, and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Microorganisms, including bacteria, archaea, viruses, fungi, and protists, are essential to life on Earth and the functioning of the biosphere. Here, we discuss the key roles of microorganisms in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), highlighting recent and emerging advances in microbial research and technology that can facilitate our transition toward a sustainable future. Given the central role of microorganisms in the biochemical processing of elements, synthesizing new materials, supporting human health, and facilitating life in managed and natural landscapes, microbial research and technologies are directly or indirectly relevant for achieving each of the SDGs. More importantly, the ubiquitous and global role of microbes means that they present new opportunities for synergistically accelerating progress toward multiple sustainability goals. By effectively managing microbial health, we can achieve solutions that address multiple sustainability targets ranging from climate and human health to food and energy production. Emerging international policy frameworks should reflect the vital importance of microorganisms in achieving a sustainable future.

Mutualisms weaken the latitudinal diversity gradient among oceanic islands.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) dominates global patterns of diversity1,2, but the factors that underlie the LDG remain elusive. Here we use a unique global dataset3 to show that vascular plants on oceanic islands exhibit a weakened LDG and explore potential mechanisms for this effect. Our results show that traditional physical drivers of island biogeography4-namely area and isolation-contribute to the difference between island and mainland diversity at a given latitude (that is, the island species deficit), as smaller and more distant islands experience reduced colonization. However, plant species with mutualists are underrepresented on islands, and we find that this plant mutualism filter explains more variation in the island species deficit than abiotic factors. In particular, plant species that require animal pollinators or microbial mutualists such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi contribute disproportionately to the island species deficit near the Equator, with contributions decreasing with distance from the Equator. Plant mutualist filters on species richness are particularly strong at low absolute latitudes where mainland richness is highest, weakening the LDG of oceanic islands. These results provide empirical evidence that mutualisms, habitat heterogeneity and dispersal are key to the maintenance of high tropical plant diversity and mediate the biogeographic patterns of plant diversity on Earth.

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions.

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.

Reducing the uncertainty in estimating soil microbial-derived carbon storage.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change and enhancing soil productivity. Microbial-derived carbon (MDC) is the main component of the persistent SOC pool. However, current formulas used to estimate the proportional contribution of MDC are plagued by uncertainties due to limited sample sizes and the neglect of bacterial group composition effects. Here, we compiled the comprehensive global dataset and employed machine learning approaches to refine our quantitative understanding of MDC contributions to total carbon storage. Our efforts resulted in a reduction in the relative standard errors in prevailing estimations by an average of 71% and minimized the effect of global variations in bacterial group compositions on estimating MDC. Our estimation indicates that MDC contributes approximately 758 Pg, representing approximately 40% of the global soil carbon stock. Our study updated the formulas of MDC estimation with improving the accuracy and preserving simplicity and practicality. Given the unique biochemistry and functioning of the MDC pool, our study has direct implications for modeling efforts and predicting the land-atmosphere carbon balance under current and future climate scenarios.

Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth.

To constrain global warming, we must strongly curtail greenhouse gas emissions and capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide1,2. Regrowing natural forests is a prominent strategy for capturing additional carbon3, but accurate assessments of its potential are limited by uncertainty and variability in carbon accumulation rates2,3. To assess why and where rates differ, here we compile 13,112 georeferenced measurements of carbon accumulation. Climatic factors explain variation in rates better than land-use history, so we combine the field measurements with 66 environmental covariate layers to create a global, one-kilometre-resolution map of potential aboveground carbon accumulation rates for the first 30 years of natural forest regrowth. This map shows over 100-fold variation in rates across the globe, and indicates that default rates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)4,5 may underestimate aboveground carbon accumulation rates by 32 per cent on average and do not capture eight-fold variation within ecozones. Conversely, we conclude that maximum climate mitigation potential from natural forest regrowth is 11 per cent lower than previously reported3 owing to the use of overly high rates for the location of potential new forest. Although our data compilation includes more studies and sites than previous efforts, our results depend on data availability, which is concentrated in ten countries, and data quality, which varies across studies. However, the plots cover most of the environmental conditions across the areas for which we predicted carbon accumulation rates (except for northern Africa and northeast Asia). We therefore provide a robust and globally consistent tool for assessing natural forest regrowth as a climate mitigation strategy.

Integrating pH into the metabolic theory of ecology to predict bacterial diversity in soil.

Microorganisms play essential roles in soil ecosystem functioning and maintenance, but methods are currently lacking for quantitative assessments of the mechanisms underlying microbial diversity patterns observed across disparate systems and scales. Here we established a quantitative model to incorporate pH into metabolic theory to capture and explain some of the unexplained variation in the relationship between temperature and soil bacterial diversity. We then tested and validated our newly developed models across multiple scales of ecological organization. At the species level, we modeled the diversification rate of the model bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens evolving under laboratory media gradients varying in temperature and pH. At the community level, we modeled patterns of bacterial communities in paddy soils across a continental scale, which included natural gradients of pH and temperature. Last, we further extended our model at a global scale by integrating a meta-analysis comprising 870 soils collected worldwide from a wide range of ecosystems. Our results were robust in consistently predicting the distributional patterns of bacterial diversity across soil temperature and pH gradients-with model variation explaining from 7 to 66% of the variation in bacterial diversity, depending on the scale and system complexity. Together, our study represents a nexus point for the integration of soil bacterial diversity and quantitative models with the potential to be used at distinct spatiotemporal scales. By mechanistically representing pH into metabolic theory, our study enhances our capacity to explain and predict the patterns of bacterial diversity and functioning under current or future climate change scenarios.

Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population.

Urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The intensity of UHIs varies with population size and mean annual precipitation, but a unifying explanation for this variation is lacking, and there are no geographically targeted guidelines for heat mitigation. Here we analyse summertime differences between urban and rural surface temperatures (ΔTs) worldwide and find a nonlinear increase in ΔTs with precipitation that is controlled by water or energy limitations on evapotranspiration and that modulates the scaling of ΔTs with city size. We introduce a coarse-grained model that links population, background climate, and UHI intensity, and show that urban-rural differences in evapotranspiration and convection efficiency are the main determinants of warming. The direct implication of these nonlinearities is that mitigation strategies aimed at increasing green cover and albedo are more efficient in dry regions, whereas the challenge of cooling tropical cities will require innovative solutions.

Prevalence and drivers of abrupt vegetation shifts in global drylands.

The constant provision of plant productivity is integral to supporting the liability of ecosystems and human wellbeing in global drylands. Drylands are paradigmatic examples of systems prone to experiencing abrupt changes in their functioning. Indeed, space-for-time substitution approaches suggest that abrupt changes in plant productivity are widespread, but this evidence is less clear using observational time series or experimental data at a large scale. Studying the prevalence and, most importantly, the unknown drivers of abrupt (rather than gradual) dynamical patterns in drylands may help to unveil hotspots of current and future dynamical instabilities in drylands. Using a 20-y global satellite-derived temporal assessment of dryland Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), we show that 50% of all dryland ecosystems exhibiting gains or losses of NDVI are characterized by abrupt positive/negative temporal dynamics. We further show that abrupt changes are more common among negative than positive NDVI trends and can be found in global regions suffering recent droughts, particularly around critical aridity thresholds. Positive abrupt dynamics are found most in ecosystems with low seasonal variability or high aridity. Our work unveils the high importance of climate variability on triggering abrupt shifts in vegetation and it provides missing evidence of increasing abruptness in systems intensively managed by humans, with low soil organic carbon contents, or around specific aridity thresholds. These results highlight that abrupt changes in dryland dynamics are very common, especially for productivity losses, pinpoint global hotspots of dryland vulnerability, and identify drivers that could be targeted for effective dryland management.

Reading tea leaves worldwide: Decoupled drivers of initial litter decomposition mass-loss rate and stabilization.

The breakdown of plant material fuels soil functioning and biodiversity. Currently, process understanding of global decomposition patterns and the drivers of such patterns are hampered by the lack of coherent large-scale datasets. We buried 36,000 individual litterbags (tea bags) worldwide and found an overall negative correlation between initial mass-loss rates and stabilization factors of plant-derived carbon, using the Tea Bag Index (TBI). The stabilization factor quantifies the degree to which easy-to-degrade components accumulate during early-stage decomposition (e.g. by environmental limitations). However, agriculture and an interaction between moisture and temperature led to a decoupling between initial mass-loss rates and stabilization, notably in colder locations. Using TBI improved mass-loss estimates of natural litter compared to models that ignored stabilization. Ignoring the transformation of dead plant material to more recalcitrant substances during early-stage decomposition, and the environmental control of this transformation, could overestimate carbon losses during early decomposition in carbon cycle models.

Demographic but not competitive time lags can transiently amplify climate-induced changes in vegetation carbon storage.

How terrestrial ecosystems will accumulate carbon as the climate continues to change is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Under growth-stimulating environmental change, time lags inherent in population and community dynamic processes have been posed to dampen, or alternatively amplify, short-term carbon gain in terrestrial vegetation, but these outcomes can be difficult to predict. To theoretically frame this problem, we developed a simple model of vegetation dynamics that identifies the stage-structured demographic and competitive processes that could govern the timescales of carbon storage and loss. We show that demographic lags associated with growth-stimulating environmental change can allow a rapid increase in population-level carbon storage that is lost back to the atmosphere in later years. However, this transient carbon storage only emerges when environmental change increases the transition of adult individuals into a larger size class that suffers markedly higher mortality. Otherwise, demographic lags simply slow carbon accumulation. Counterintuitively, an analogous tradeoff between maximum adult size and survivorship in two-species models, coupled with environmental change-driven replacement, does not generate the transient carbon gain seen in the single-species models. Instead lags in competitive replacement slow the approach to the eventual carbon trajectory. Together, our results suggest that time lags inherent in demographic and compositional turnover tend to slow carbon accumulation in systems responding to growth-stimulating environmental change. Only under specific conditions will lagged demographic processes in such systems drive transient carbon accumulation, conditions that investigators can examine in nature to help project future carbon trajectories.

Resolving the Intricate Effects of Multiple Global Change Drivers on Root Litter Decomposition.

Plant roots represent about a quarter of global plant biomass and constitute a primary source of soil organic carbon (C). Yet, considerable uncertainty persists regarding root litter decomposition and their responses to global change factors (GCFs). Much of this uncertainty stems from a limited understanding of the multifactorial effects of GCFs and it remains unclear how these effects are mediated by litter quality, soil conditions and microbial functionality. Using complementary field decomposition and laboratory incubation approaches, we assessed the relative controls of GCF-mediated changes in root litter traits and soil and microbial properties on fine-root decomposition under warming, nitrogen (N) enrichment, and precipitation alteration. We found that warming and N enrichment accelerated fine-root decomposition by over 10%, and their combination showed an additive effect, while precipitation reduction suppressed decomposition overall by 12%, with the suppressive effect being most significant under warming-alone and N enrichment-alone conditions. Significantly, changes in litter quality played a dominant role and accelerated fine-root decomposition by 15% ~ 18% under warming and N enrichment, while changes in soil and microbial properties were predominant and reduced decomposition by 7% ~ 10% under precipitation reduction and the combined warming and N enrichment. Examining only the decomposition environment or litter properties in isolation can distort global change effects on root decomposition, underestimating precipitation reduction impacts by 38% and overstating warming and N effects by up to 73%. These findings highlight that the net impact of GCFs on root litter decomposition hinges on the interplay between GCF-modulated root decomposability and decomposition environment, as well as on the synergistic or antagonistic relationships among GCFs themselves. Our study emphasizes that integrating the legacy effects of multiple GCFs on root traits, soil conditions and microbial functionality would improve our prediction of C and nutrient cycling under interactive global change scenarios.

A stoichiometric approach to estimate sources of mineral-associated soil organic matter.

Mineral-associated soil organic matter (MAOM) is the largest, slowest cycling pool of carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere. MAOM is primarily derived from plant and microbial sources, yet the relative contributions of these two sources to MAOM remain unresolved. Resolving this issue is essential for managing and modeling soil carbon responses to environmental change. Microbial biomarkers, particularly amino sugars, are the primary method used to estimate microbial versus plant contributions to MAOM, despite systematic biases associated with these estimates. There is a clear need for independent lines of evidence to help determine the relative importance of plant versus microbial contributions to MAOM. Here, we synthesized 288 datasets of C/N ratios for MAOM, particulate organic matter (POM), and microbial biomass across the soils of forests, grasslands, and croplands. Microbial biomass is the source of microbial residues that form MAOM, whereas the POM pool is the direct precursor of plant residues that form MAOM. We then used a stoichiometric approach-based on two-pool, isotope-mixing models-to estimate the proportional contribution of plant residue (POM) versus microbial sources to the MAOM pool. Depending on the assumptions underlying our approach, microbial inputs accounted for between 34% and 47% of the MAOM pool, whereas plant residues contributed 53%-66%. Our results therefore challenge the existing hypothesis that microbial contributions are the dominant constituents of MAOM. We conclude that biogeochemical theory and models should account for multiple pathways of MAOM formation, and that multiple independent lines of evidence are required to resolve where and when plant versus microbial contributions are dominant in MAOM formation.

Poleward shifts in the maximum of spring phenological responsiveness of Ginkgo biloba to temperature in China.

Global warming is advancing the timing of spring leaf-out in temperate and boreal plants, affecting biological interactions and global biogeochemical cycles. However, spatial variation in spring phenological responsiveness to climate change within species remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated variation in the responsiveness of spring phenology to temperature (RSP; days to leaf-out at a given temperature) in 2754 Ginkgo biloba twigs of trees distributed across subtropical and temperate regions in China from 24°N to 44°N. We found a nonlinear effect of mean annual temperature on spatial variation in RSP, with the highest response rate at c. 12°C and lower response rates at warmer or colder temperatures due to declines in winter chilling accumulation. We then predicted the spatial maxima in RSP under current and future climate scenarios, and found that trees are currently most responsive in central China, which corresponds to the species' main distribution area. Under a high-emission scenario, we predict a 4-degree latitude shift in the responsiveness maximum toward higher latitudes over the rest of the century. The identification of the nonlinear responsiveness of spring phenology to climate gradients and the spatial shifts in phenological responsiveness expected under climate change represent new mechanistic insights that can inform models of spring phenology and ecosystem functioning.

Home-based microbial solution to boost crop growth in low-fertility soil.

Soil microbial inoculants are expected to boost crop productivity under climate change and soil degradation. However, the efficiency of native vs commercialized microbial inoculants in soils with different fertility and impacts on resident microbial communities remain unclear. We investigated the differential plant growth responses to native synthetic microbial community (SynCom) and commercial plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR). We quantified the microbial colonization and dynamic of niche structure to emphasize the home-field advantages for native microbial inoculants. A native SynCom of 21 bacterial strains, originating from three typical agricultural soils, conferred a special advantage in promoting maize growth under low-fertility conditions. The root : shoot ratio of fresh weight increased by 78-121% with SynCom but only 23-86% with PGPRs. This phenotype correlated with the potential robust colonization of SynCom and positive interactions with the resident community. Niche breadth analysis revealed that SynCom inoculation induced a neutral disturbance to the niche structure. However, even PGPRs failed to colonize the natural soil, they decreased niche breadth and increased niche overlap by 59.2-62.4%, exacerbating competition. These results suggest that the home-field advantage of native microbes may serve as a basis for engineering crop microbiomes to support food production in widely distributed poor soils.

Soils in warmer and less developed countries have less micronutrients globally.

Soil micronutrients are capital for the delivery of ecosystem functioning and food provision worldwide. Yet, despite their importance, the global biogeography and ecological drivers of soil micronutrients remain virtually unknown, limiting our capacity to anticipate abrupt unexpected changes in soil micronutrients in the face of climate change. Here, we analyzed >1300 topsoil samples to examine the global distribution of six metallic micronutrients (Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, Co and Ni) across all continents, climates and vegetation types. We found that warmer arid and tropical ecosystems, present in the least developed countries, sustain the lowest contents of multiple soil micronutrients. We further provide evidence that temperature increases may potentially result in abrupt and simultaneous reductions in the content of multiple soil micronutrients when a temperature threshold of 12-14°C is crossed, which may be occurring on 3% of the planet over the next century. Altogether, our findings provide fundamental understanding of the global distribution of soil micronutrients, with direct implications for the maintenance of ecosystem functioning, rangeland management and food production in the warmest and poorest regions of the planet.

A trait-based understanding of wood decomposition by fungi.

As the primary decomposers of organic material in terrestrial ecosystems, fungi are critical agents of the global carbon cycle. Yet our ability to link fungal community composition to ecosystem functioning is constrained by a limited understanding of the factors accounting for different wood decomposition rates among fungi. Here we examine which traits best explain fungal decomposition ability by combining detailed trait-based assays on 34 saprotrophic fungi from across North America in the laboratory with a 5-y field study comprising 1,582 fungi isolated from 74 decomposing logs. Fungal growth rate (hyphal extension rate) was the strongest single predictor of fungal-mediated wood decomposition rate under laboratory conditions, and accounted for up to 27% of the in situ variation in decomposition in the field. At the individual level, decomposition rate was negatively correlated with moisture niche width (an indicator of drought stress tolerance) and with the production of nutrient-mineralizing extracellular enzymes. Together, these results suggest that decomposition rates strongly align with a dominance-tolerance life-history trade-off that was previously identified in these isolates, forming a spectrum from slow-growing, stress-tolerant fungi that are poor decomposers to fast-growing, highly competitive fungi with fast decomposition rates. Our study illustrates how an understanding of fungal trait variation could improve our predictive ability of the early and midstages of wood decay, to which our findings are most applicable. By mapping our results onto the biogeographic distribution of the dominance-tolerance trade-off across North America, we approximate broad-scale patterns in intrinsic fungal-mediated wood decomposition rates.

Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia.

Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

Priming effects in soils across Europe.

Land use is a key factor driving changes in soil carbon (C) cycle and contents worldwide. The priming effect (PE)-CO2 emissions from changed soil organic matter decomposition in response to fresh C inputs-is one of the most unpredictable phenomena associated with C cycling and related nutrient mobilization. Yet, we know very little about the influence of land use on soil PE across contrasting environments. Here, we conducted a continental-scale study to (i) determine the PE induced by 13 C-glucose additions to 126 cropland and seminatural (forests and grasslands) soils from 22 European countries; (ii) compare PE magnitude in soils under various crop types (i.e., cereals, nonpermanent industrial crops, and orchards); and (iii) model the environmental factors influencing PE. On average, PEs were negative in seminatural (with values ranging between -60 and 26 µg C g-1 soil after 35 days of incubation; median = -11) and cropland (from -55 to 27 µC g-1 soil; median = -4.3) soils, meaning that microbial communities preferentially switched from soil organic C decomposition to glucose mineralization. PE was significantly less negative in croplands compared with seminatural ecosystems and not influenced by the crop type. PE was driven by soil basal respiration (reflecting microbial activity), microbial biomass C, and soil organic C, which were all higher in seminatural ecosystems compared with croplands. This cross European experimental and modeling study elucidated that PE intensity is dependent on land use and allowed to clarify the factors regulating this important C cycling process.

Links across ecological scales: Plant biomass responses to elevated CO2.

The degree to which elevated CO2 concentrations (e[CO2 ]) increase the amount of carbon (C) assimilated by vegetation plays a key role in climate change. However, due to the short-term nature of CO2 enrichment experiments and the lack of reconciliation between different ecological scales, the effect of e[CO2 ] on plant biomass stocks remains a major uncertainty in future climate projections. Here, we review the effect of e[CO2 ] on plant biomass across multiple levels of ecological organization, scaling from physiological responses to changes in population-, community-, ecosystem-, and global-scale dynamics. We find that evidence for a sustained biomass response to e[CO2 ] varies across ecological scales, leading to diverging conclusions about the responses of individuals, populations, communities, and ecosystems. While the distinct focus of every scale reveals new mechanisms driving biomass accumulation under e[CO2 ], none of them provides a full picture of all relevant processes. For example, while physiological evidence suggests a possible long-term basis for increased biomass accumulation under e[CO2 ] through sustained photosynthetic stimulation, population-scale evidence indicates that a possible e[CO2 ]-induced increase in mortality rates might potentially outweigh the effect of increases in plant growth rates on biomass levels. Evidence at the global scale may indicate that e[CO2 ] has contributed to increased biomass cover over recent decades, but due to the difficulty to disentangle the effect of e[CO2 ] from a variety of climatic and land-use-related drivers of plant biomass stocks, it remains unclear whether nutrient limitations or other ecological mechanisms operating at finer scales will dampen the e[CO2 ] effect over time. By exploring these discrepancies, we identify key research gaps in our understanding of the effect of e[CO2 ] on plant biomass and highlight the need to integrate knowledge across scales of ecological organization so that large-scale modeling can represent the finer-scale mechanisms needed to constrain our understanding of future terrestrial C storage.