Using expert knowledge to support Endangered Species Act decision-making for data-deficient species.

Many questions relevant to conservation decision-making are characterized by extreme uncertainty due to lack of empirical data and complexity of the underlying ecologic processes, leading to a rapid increase in the use of structured protocols to elicit expert knowledge. Published ecologic applications often employ a modified Delphi method, where experts provide judgments anonymously and mathematical aggregation techniques are used to combine judgments. The Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) differs in its behavioral approach to synthesizing individual judgments into a fully specified probability distribution for an unknown quantity. We used the SHELF protocol remotely to assess extinction risk of three subterranean aquatic species that are being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We provided experts an empirical threat assessment for each known locality over a video conference and recorded judgments on the probability of population persistence over four generations with online submission forms and R-shiny apps available through the SHELF package. Despite large uncertainty for all populations, there were key differences between species' risk of extirpation based on spatial variation in dominant threats, local land use and management practices, and species' microhabitat. The resulting probability distributions provided decision makers with a full picture of uncertainty that was consistent with the probabilistic nature of risk assessments. Discussion among experts during SHELF's behavioral aggregation stage clearly documented dominant threats (e.g., development, timber harvest, animal agriculture, and cave visitation) and their interactions with local cave geology and species' habitat. Our virtual implementation of the SHELF protocol demonstrated the flexibility of the approach for conservation applications operating on budgets and time lines that can limit in-person meetings of geographically dispersed experts.

Uso del Conocimiento Experto para Respaldar la Toma de Decisiones del Acta de Especies en Peligro para Especies con Información Deficiente Resumen Muchas preguntas relevantes para la toma de decisiones de conservación se caracterizan por una incertidumbre extrema causada por la falta de información empírica y por la complejidad de los procesos ecológicos subyacentes. Esto lleva a un rápido incremento en el uso de protocolos estructurados para obtener conocimiento de los expertos en el tema. Las aplicaciones ecológicas publicadas con frecuencia emplean un método Delphi modificado, en el cual los expertos proporcionan dictámenes anónimamente y luego se usan técnicas de agregación matemática para combinar estos dictámenes. El marco de trabajo de obtención Sheffield (SHELF) difiere en su enfoque conductual para sintetizar los dictámenes individuales en una distribución de probabilidad completamente especificada para una cantidad desconocida. Usamos el protocolo SHELF remotamente para evaluar el riesgo de extinción de tres especies acuáticas subterráneas que están siendo consideradas para ser incluidas en el Acta de Especies en Peligro de los E.U.A. Les proporcionamos a los expertos una evaluación empírica de la amenaza para cada localidad conocida durante una videoconferencia y registramos los dictámenes sobre la probabilidad de la persistencia poblacional durante cuatro generaciones por medio de formularios enviados en línea y las apps R-shiny disponibles a través del paquete SHELF. A pesar de la gran incertidumbre para todas las poblaciones, hubo diferencias importantes entre el riesgo de extirpación de las especies con base en la variación espacial en las amenazas dominantes, el uso del suelo local y las prácticas de manejo, y el microhábitat de las especies. Las distribuciones resultantes de la probabilidad proporcionaron al órgano decisorio un cuadro completo de la incertidumbre que fue consistente con la naturaleza probabilística de las evaluaciones de riesgo. Las discusiones entre los expertos durante la fase de agregación conductual de SHELF documentaron claramente las amenazas dominantes (p. ej.: desarrollo, extracción de madera, agricultura animal y visitas a las cuevas) y sus interacciones con la geología de las cuevas locales y el hábitat de la especie. Nuestra implementación virtual del protocolo SHELF demostró la flexibilidad del enfoque para las aplicaciones de la conservación que operan con presupuestos y líneas de tiempo que pueden limitar las reuniones en persona de expertos dispersados geográficamente.

Towards evidence-based conservation of subterranean ecosystems.

Subterranean ecosystems are among the most widespread environments on Earth, yet we still have poor knowledge of their biodiversity. To raise awareness of subterranean ecosystems, the essential services they provide, and their unique conservation challenges, 2021 and 2022 were designated International Years of Caves and Karst. As these ecosystems have traditionally been overlooked in global conservation agendas and multilateral agreements, a quantitative assessment of solution-based approaches to safeguard subterranean biota and associated habitats is timely. This assessment allows researchers and practitioners to understand the progress made and research needs in subterranean ecology and management. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature focused on subterranean ecosystems globally (terrestrial, freshwater, and saltwater systems), to quantify the available evidence-base for the effectiveness of conservation interventions. We selected 708 publications from the years 1964 to 2021 that discussed, recommended, or implemented 1,954 conservation interventions in subterranean ecosystems. We noted a steep increase in the number of studies from the 2000s while, surprisingly, the proportion of studies quantifying the impact of conservation interventions has steadily and significantly decreased in recent years. The effectiveness of 31% of conservation interventions has been tested statistically. We further highlight that 64% of the reported research occurred in the Palearctic and Nearctic biogeographic regions. Assessments of the effectiveness of conservation interventions were heavily biased towards indirect measures (monitoring and risk assessment), a limited sample of organisms (mostly arthropods and bats), and more accessible systems (terrestrial caves). Our results indicate that most conservation science in the field of subterranean biology does not apply a rigorous quantitative approach, resulting in sparse evidence for the effectiveness of interventions. This raises the important question of how to make conservation efforts more feasible to implement, cost-effective, and long-lasting. Although there is no single remedy, we propose a suite of potential solutions to focus our efforts better towards increasing statistical testing and stress the importance of standardising study reporting to facilitate meta-analytical exercises. We also provide a database summarising the available literature, which will help to build quantitative knowledge about interventions likely to yield the greatest impacts depending upon the subterranean species and habitats of interest. We view this as a starting point to shift away from the widespread tendency of recommending conservation interventions based on anecdotal and expert-based information rather than scientific evidence, without quantitatively testing their effectiveness.

What's the relative humidity in tropical caves?

Relative humidity (RH) was measured at hourly intervals for approximately one year in two caves at seven stations near Playa del Carmen in Quintana Roo, Mexico. Sistema Muévelo Rico is a 1.1 km long cave with 12 entrances and almost no dark zone. Río Secreto (Tuch) is a large river cave with more than 40 km of passages, and an extensive dark zone. Given the need for cave specialists to adapt to saturated humidity, presumably by cuticular thinning, the major stress of RH would be its deviation from saturation. RH in Río Secreto (Tuch) was invariant at three sites and displayed short deviations from 100% RH at the other four sites. These deviations were concentrated at the end of the nortes and beginning of the rainy season. Three of the sites in Sistema Muévelo Rico showed a similar pattern although the timing of the deviations from 100% RH was somewhat displaced. Four sites in Sistema Muévelo Rico were more variable, and were analyzed using a measure of amount of time of deviation from 100% RH for each 24 hour period. Strong seasonality was evident but, remarkably, periods of constant high humidity were not the same at all sites. In most Sistema Muévelo Rico sites, there was a detectable 24 hour cycle in RH, although it was quite weak in about half of them. For Río Secreto (Tuch) only one site showed any sign of a 24 hour cycle. The troglomorphic fauna was more or less uniformly spread throughout the caves and did not concentrate in any one area or set of RH conditions. Compared to temperature, RH is much more constant, perhaps even more constant than the amount of light. However, changes in RH as a result of global warming may have a major negative effect on the subterranean fauna.

What's the temperature in tropical caves?

Hourly temperature was measured for approximately one year at 17 stations in three caves in Quintana Roo, Mexico. Thirteen of these stations were in the extensive twilight zones of all three caves. All seventeen stations showed seasonality in temperature with a 3°C drop during the Nortes season. Two of the caves, Muévelo Sabrosito and Muévelo Rico, showed greater variability during the winter months while in Río Secreto (Tuch) variability was greatest during the rainy season. Río Secreto is less open to the surface than the other two. All sites also showed a daily temperature cycle, although it was very faint in some Río Secreto (Tuch) sites. While temperature variability is diminished relative to surface variation, its temporal pattern is worthy of further study.

Fundamental research questions in subterranean biology.

Five decades ago, a landmark paper in Science titled The Cave Environment heralded caves as ideal natural experimental laboratories in which to develop and address general questions in geology, ecology, biogeography, and evolutionary biology. Although the 'caves as laboratory' paradigm has since been advocated by subterranean biologists, there are few examples of studies that successfully translated their results into general principles. The contemporary era of big data, modelling tools, and revolutionary advances in genetics and (meta)genomics provides an opportunity to revisit unresolved questions and challenges, as well as examine promising new avenues of research in subterranean biology. Accordingly, we have developed a roadmap to guide future research endeavours in subterranean biology by adapting a well-established methodology of 'horizon scanning' to identify the highest priority research questions across six subject areas. Based on the expert opinion of 30 scientists from around the globe with complementary expertise and of different academic ages, we assembled an initial list of 258 fundamental questions concentrating on macroecology and microbial ecology, adaptation, evolution, and conservation. Subsequently, through online surveys, 130 subterranean biologists with various backgrounds assisted us in reducing our list to 50 top-priority questions. These research questions are broad in scope and ready to be addressed in the next decade. We believe this exercise will stimulate research towards a deeper understanding of subterranean biology and foster hypothesis-driven studies likely to resonate broadly from the traditional boundaries of this field.

Partitioning diversity in subterranean invertebrates: The epikarst fauna of Slovenia.

The decomposition of diversity into within site (α) and between site (ß) components is especially interesting in subterranean communities because of their isolated nature and limited dispersal potential The aquatic epikarst fauna, sampled from water drips in caves affords a unique opportunity to provide comparable, quantitative samples of a portion of the obligate subterranean dwelling fauna in multiple hierarchical levels. We focused on three interrelated questions-(1) what is the spatial pattern of epikarst species diversity; (2) how does species diversity partition between local, and regional components (nested and replacement); and (3) whether epikarst hotspots are subterranean hotspots in general. We analyzed the geographic pattern of species richness of 30 species of obligate subterranean copepods found in 81 drips in Slovenian caves in three karst regions-Alpine, Dinaric, and Isolated. Comparison of Chao1 and observed (Mao-tau) estimates of species richness indicated sampling in most drips was complete, but species accumulation curves indicated roughly half of the sites in the Dinaric karst had not reached an asymptote. Overall, within drip diversity accounted for three species, different drips in a cave another three, different caves in a region six species, and different regions accounted for the remaining 18 species. Sites in the Dinaric karst had much higher species richness than the other sites, which is in agreement with studies of other components of the subterranean fauna. The fauna associated with drips in Zupanova jama (jama = cave), in the east-central Dinaric karst was the richest found. While turnover explained the majority of ß-diversity, nestedness in the form of hotspot drips was important as well. A consequence is that a small number of drips largely determine cave and regional species diversity.

Predicting the Occurrence of Cave-Inhabiting Fauna Based on Features of the Earth Surface Environment.

One of the most challenging fauna to study in situ is the obligate cave fauna because of the difficulty of sampling. Cave-limited species display patchy and restricted distributions, but it is often unclear whether the observed distribution is a sampling artifact or a true restriction in range. Further, the drivers of the distribution could be local environmental conditions, such as cave humidity, or they could be associated with surface features that are surrogates for cave conditions. If surface features can be used to predict the distribution of important cave taxa, then conservation management is more easily obtained. We examined the hypothesis that the presence of major faunal groups of cave obligate species could be predicted based on features of the earth surface. Georeferenced records of cave obligate amphipods, crayfish, fish, isopods, beetles, millipedes, pseudoscorpions, spiders, and springtails within the area of Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative in the eastern United States (Illinois to Virginia and New York to Alabama) were assigned to 20 x 20 km grid cells. Habitat suitability for these faunal groups was modeled using logistic regression with twenty predictor variables within each grid cell, such as percent karst, soil features, temperature, precipitation, and elevation. Models successfully predicted the presence of a group greater than 65% of the time (mean = 88%) for the presence of single grid cell endemics, and for all faunal groups except pseudoscorpions. The most common predictor variables were latitude, percent karst, and the standard deviation of the Topographic Position Index (TPI), a measure of landscape rugosity within each grid cell. The overall success of these models points to a number of important connections between the surface and cave environments, and some of these, especially soil features and topographic variability, suggest new research directions. These models should prove to be useful tools in predicting the presence of species in understudied areas.

The timing of seed dispersal in Viooa nuttallii: attraction of dispersers and avoidance of predators.

Elaiosomes attract rodent predators, as well as ant dispersers (Myrmica discontinua and Formica podzolica), to Viola nuttallii seeds. Seed removal by ants and rodents was studied over 24 h and over two separate 4-h periods. Experimental treatments included i) ants and rodents having access to seeds, ii) only ants having access, iii) only rodents having access, and iv) neither ants nor rodents having access. Seed dehiscence was monitored for 3 days. A simple model is used to determine the relative importance of ants and rodents in removing seeds, and these frequencies are related to the time when most seeds were released. The data show that most seeds are shed from capsules between 9 AM and 1 PM and are immediately removed by ants. Ants, on the average, remove 88% of the seeds. The timing of seed dehiscence increases the probability of seeds being dispersed by ants. The results are discussed with respect to the hypothesis that a sychrony of the time of seed dispersal and the period when most ants (mutualists) and least rodents (predators) are active would be advantageous to the plant species.

The nest chemistry of two seed-dispersing ant species.

Nests of Myrmica discontinua and Formica canadensis from meadows in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Colorado, USA were analysed for fifteen plant macronutrients, micronutrients and heavy metals. Nest samples were compared with control samples taken from surrounding soils. Principal components analysis and discriminant function analysis show that the nest chemistry of F. canadensis differs significantly from that of M. discontinua. Also, nest chemistry differs from that of the surrounding soils. Both kinds of nests contain elevated levels of phosphorus relative to adjacent soils, but F. canadensis nests may be deficient in the micronutrients zinc, iron and manganese. On the other hand, the nests of M. discontinua are also richer in ammonium and percent organic matter. These results are discussed with respect to the hypothesis that relocation of ant-dispersed seeds into ant nests may be advantageous to the plant species involved. It is suggested the relocation to Myrmica nests, rich in phosphorus, potassium and nitrogen, may result in greater survivorship of seedlings.

Population consequences of changes in an ant-seed mutualism in Sanguinaria canadensis.

Seed dispersal by ants was studied in three populations of the myrmecochore, Sanguinaria canadensis, located in three habitats, each of which showed a different level of disturbance. Frequency of seed removal and the distances seeds were carried by ants were related to plant density, dispersion and the relative proportions of sexual and asexual reproduction in each population. Seeds in the least disturbed habitat were removed frequently and carried, by a wide variety of ants, distances of up to 12 m. Plant density was low and clone size was small. There was a relatively low level of sexual (seed) reproduction but seeds were generally transported well beyond the boundaries of the parent clones. By contrast, at the most disturbed site, plant density was high and clone size was very large. While there was a high level of seed production, seeds were rarely moved by ants and since removal distances were short, the probability of a seed being relocated beyond the limits of the parent clone was miniscule. The third population from a habitat which was intermediate in disturbance yielded data intermediate to the others. The data show that habitat disturbance, in disrupting the ant fauna and hence the ant-seed mutualism, has profound effects upon population density, dispersion and patterns of reproduction. Density-dependent regulation of sexual output predicted, for example, by the Strawberry-Coral model (Williams 1975), is maladaptive when the antseed mutualism is disturbed. We discuss the implications of this for theoretical modeling, the significance of mutualisms and the assessment of disturbance for conservation.

THE DUAL ROLE OF SELECTION AND EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY AS REFLECTED IN GENETIC CORRELATIONS.

The patterns of genetic correlations between a series of eye and antenna characters were compared among two sets of spring-dwelling and cave-dwelling populations of Gammarus minus. The two sets of populations originate from different drainages and represent two separate invasions of cave habitats from surface-dwelling populations. Matrix correlations, using permutation tests, indicated significant correlations both between populations in the same basin and from the same habitat. The technique of biplot, which allows for the simultaneous consideration of relationships between different genetic correlations and different populations, was used to further analyze the correlation structure. A rank-3 biplot indicated that spring and cave populations were largely differentiated by eye-antennal correlations, whereas basins were differentiated by both eye-antennal and antennal-antennal correlations. Eye-antennal correlations, which are likely to be subject to selection, were most similar within habitats, which are likely to have similar selective regimes.

ARE PARALLEL MORPHOLOGIES OF CAVE ORGANISMS THE RESULT OF SIMILAR SELECTION PRESSURES?

The amphipod Gammarus minus is present in both caves and springs, with cave populations showing elaborated (size and antennae) and reduced (eye) characters relative to spring populations. Earlier studies have shown that cave populations resulted from independent invasions of hydrologically isolated subterranean drainages and that there is genetic variation for both elaborated and reduced characters. In this study we tested the hypothesis that a similar pattern of selection on isolated cave populations is responsible for the parallel evolution of cave morphologies. We used variation in mating success and fecundity to test for the presence of directional selection on eye, antennal, and body size characters in a set of cave and spring populations during a series of seasonal cross-sectional samplings. We found significant directional selection for smaller eyes in caves and larger eyes in springs, which supports the hypothesis that selection is responsible for reduced eye size in cave populations. We also found selection for larger body and antennal size in cave populations, which is consistent with the hypothesis that parallel patterns of selection in caves are responsible for the elaboration of body and antennal size. However, we found selection for larger body and antennal size in spring populations that is not consistent with the observed divergence of spring and cave populations. We suggest that unmeasured components of viability selection could be more important in springs than in caves and may act against the selection for larger size found in spring populations.