Ineffective responses to unlikely outbreaks: Hypothesis building in newly-emerging infectious disease outbreaks.

Over the last 30 years, there has been significant investment in research and infrastructure aimed at mitigating the threat of newly emerging infectious diseases (NEID). Core epidemiological processes, such as outbreak investigations, however, have received little attention and have proceeded largely unchecked and unimproved. Using ethnographic material from an investigation into a cryptic encephalitis outbreak in the Brong-Ahafo Region of Ghana in 2010-2013, in this paper we trace processes of hypothesis building and their relationship to the organizational structures of the response. We demonstrate how commonly recurring features of NEID investigations produce selective pressures in hypothesis building that favor iterations of pre-existing "exciting" hypotheses and inhibit the pursuit of alternative hypotheses, regardless of relative likelihood. These findings contribute to the growing anthropological and science and technology studies (STS) literature on the epistemic communities that coalesce around suspected NEID outbreaks and highlight an urgent need for greater scrutiny of core epidemiological processes.

Interpopulation differences in male reproductive effort drive the population dynamics of a host exposed to an emerging fungal pathogen.

Compensatory recruitment is a key demographic mechanism that has allowed the coexistence of populations of susceptible amphibians with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a fungus causing one of the most devastating emerging infectious disease ever recorded among vertebrates. However, the underlying processes (e.g. density-dependent increase in survival at early life stages, change in reproductive traits) as well as the level of interpopulation variation in this response are poorly known. We explore potential mechanisms of compensatory recruitment in response to Bd infection by taking advantage of an amphibian system where male reproductive traits are easy to quantify in free-living populations. The Southern Darwin's frog Rhinoderma darwinii is a vocal sac-brooding species that exhibits a high susceptibility to lethal Bd infection. Using a 7-year capture-recapture study at four populations with contrasting Bd infection status (one high prevalence, one low prevalence and two Bd-free populations), we evaluated whether Bd-positive populations exhibited a higher adult recruitment and a higher male reproductive effort than Bd-negative populations. We also estimated population growth rates to explore whether recruitment compensated for the negative impacts of Bd on the survival of adults. In addition, we evaluated a potential demographic signal of compensatory recruitment (i.e. positive relationship between the proportion of juveniles and Bd prevalence) in response to Bd infection using raw count data from 13 R. darwinii populations. The high Bd prevalence population exhibited the highest male reproductive effort and the highest recruitment among the four monitored populations. This led to a growing population during the study period despite high mortality of adult hosts. In contrast, males from the population with low Bd prevalence had a low reproductive effort and this population, which had the lowest adult recruitment, was declining during the study period despite adults having a higher survival in comparison to the high Bd prevalence population. We also found a demographic signal of compensatory recruitment in response to Bd infection in our broader analysis of 13 R. darwinii populations. Our study underlines the importance of interpopulation variation in life-history strategies on the fate of host populations after infectious disease emergence. Our results also suggest that an increase in reproductive effort can be one of the processes underlying compensatory recruitment in populations of Bd-susceptible amphibians.

Why disease ecology needs life-history theory: a host perspective.

When facing an emerging infectious disease of conservation concern, we often have little information on the nature of the host-parasite interaction to inform management decisions. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the life-history strategies of host species can be predictive of individual- and population-level responses to infectious disease, even without detailed knowledge on the specifics of the host-parasite interaction. Here, we argue that a deeper integration of life-history theory into disease ecology is timely and necessary to improve our capacity to understand, predict and mitigate the impact of endemic and emerging infectious diseases in wild populations. Using wild vertebrates as an example, we show that host life-history characteristics influence host responses to parasitism at different levels of organisation, from individuals to communities. We also highlight knowledge gaps and future directions for the study of life-history and host responses to parasitism. We conclude by illustrating how this theoretical insight can inform the monitoring and control of infectious diseases in wildlife.

Environmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic models.

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) of humans and domestic animals are a significant component of the global burden of disease and a key driver of poverty. The transmission cycles of VBDs are often strongly mediated by the ecological requirements of the vectors, resulting in complex transmission dynamics, including intermittent epidemics and an unclear link between environmental conditions and disease persistence. An important broader concern is the extent to which theoretical models are reliable at forecasting VBDs; infection dynamics can be complex, and the resulting systems are highly unstable. Here, we examine these problems in detail using a case study of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a high-burden disease endemic to Africa. We develop an ecoepidemiological, compartmental, mathematical model coupled to the dynamics of ambient temperature and water availability and apply it to a realistic setting using empirical environmental data from Kenya. Importantly, we identify the range of seasonally varying ambient temperatures and water-body availability that leads to either the extinction of mosquito populations and/or RVF (nonpersistent regimens) or the establishment of long-term mosquito populations and consequently, the endemicity of the RVF infection (persistent regimens). Instabilities arise when the range of the environmental variables overlaps with the threshold of persistence. The model captures the intermittent nature of RVF occurrence, which is explained as low-level circulation under the threshold of detection, with intermittent emergence sometimes after long periods. Using the approach developed here opens up the ability to improve predictions of the emergence and behaviors of epidemics of many other important VBDs.

A RETROSPECTIVE REVIEW OF POST-METAMORPHIC MOUNTAIN CHICKEN FROG (LEPTODACTYLUS FALLAX) NECROPSY FINDINGS FROM EUROPEAN ZOOLOGICAL COLLECTIONS, 1998 TO 2018.

The mountain chicken frog (Leptodactylus fallax) is the largest endemic amphibian species in the Western Hemisphere. Since 1998, this critically endangered species has been maintained as a European Endangered Species Programme, but low breeding success and a high mortality rate threaten the sustainability of the captive frog population. In the current study, we analyzed gross and histopathologic postmortem information from 212 mountain chicken frogs that died in European zoological collections from 1998 to 2018. Thin body condition was the most commonly reported finding across all submissions, observed in 125 frogs. The gastrointestinal and urinary systems were reported to have the highest prevalence of pathologic findings on gross and histopathologic examination. Inflammatory disease was the most frequent diagnosis after histopathologic examination of relevant tissues, with intestinal inflammatory disease (n = 76) followed by tubulointerstitial nephritis (n = 26) being the most commonly reported. Neoplasia was reported in 42 of 212 (19.8%) frogs, all of which were adults. A defined cause of death, or reason for euthanasia, was proposed for 164 of 212 (77.4%) frogs, with inflammatory diseases processes (74 of 212; 34.9%) most commonly implicated. Intestinal adenocarcinoma, seemingly restricted to the colon, caused the deaths of 31 adult frogs. Further investigations to determine factors contributing to the high incidence of inflammatory disease processes and neoplasia are advocated to improve the health and sustainability of the captive mountain chicken frog population.

What motivates the masses: Understanding why people contribute to conservation citizen science projects.

Participation in conservation citizen science projects is growing rapidly and approaches to project design are diversifying. There has been a recent shift towards projects characterised by contributors collecting data in isolation and submitting findings online, with little training or opportunities for direct social interaction with other citizen scientists. While research is emerging on developing citizen science projects by optimising technological modalities, little consideration has been given to understanding what motivates individuals to voluntarily contribute data. Here, we use the Volunteer Functions Inventory, combined with open-ended questions, to demonstrate that the two strongest motivations underpinning participation, for both individuals who contribute data systematically (regularly; n = 177) and opportunistically (ad hoc basis; n = 218), are 'Values' and 'Understanding'. People take part in such projects because they have an intrinsic value for the environment and want to support research efforts (representing 'Values'), as well as wanting to learn and gain knowledge (signifying 'Understanding'). Unlike more traditional citizen science projects that involve specific training and considerable time investments, contributors to these newer types of project are not motivated by the potential to develop their career or opportunities for social interaction. The person-level characteristics of contributors considered in this study did not reliably forecast levels of motivation, suggesting that predicting high levels of motivation is inherently more complex than is often speculated. We recommend avenues for future research that may further enhance our understanding of contributor motivations and the characteristics that may underpin levels of motivation.

Detection of Usutu virus infection in wild birds in the United Kingdom, 2020.

In August 2020, as part of a long-term disease surveillance programme, Usutu virus was detected in five Eurasian blackbirds (Turdus merula) and one house sparrow (Passer domesticus) from Greater London, England. This was initially detected by reverse transcription-PCR and was confirmed by virus isolation and by immunohistochemical detection of flavivirus in tissues. Phylogenetic analysis identified Usutu virus African 3.2 lineage, which is prevalent in the Netherlands and Belgium, suggesting a potential incursion from mainland Europe.

Effects of historic and projected climate change on the range and impacts of an emerging wildlife disease.

The global trend of increasing environmental temperatures is often predicted to result in more severe disease epidemics. However, unambiguous evidence that temperature is a driver of epidemics is largely lacking, because it is demanding to demonstrate its role among the complex interactions between hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. Here, we apply a three-pronged approach to understand the effects of temperature on ranavirus epidemics in UK common frogs, combining in vitro, in vivo, and field studies. Each approach suggests that higher temperatures drive increasing severity of epidemics. In wild populations, ranavirosis incidents were more frequent and more severe at higher temperatures, and their frequency increased through a period of historic warming in the 1990s. Laboratory experiments using cell culture and whole animal models showed that higher temperature increased ranavirus propagation, disease incidence, and mortality rate. These results, combined with climate projections, predict severe ranavirosis outbreaks will occur over wider areas and an extended season, possibly affecting larval recruitment. Since ranaviruses affect a variety of ectothermic hosts (amphibians, reptiles, and fish), wider ecological damage could occur. Our three complementary lines of evidence present a clear case for direct environmental modulation of these epidemics and suggest management options to protect species from disease.

Disentangling serology to elucidate henipa- and filovirus transmission in Madagascar fruit bats.

Bats are reservoirs for emerging human pathogens, including Hendra and Nipah henipaviruses and Ebola and Marburg filoviruses. These viruses demonstrate predictable patterns in seasonality and age structure across multiple systems; previous work suggests that they may circulate in Madagascar's endemic fruit bats, which are widely consumed as human food. We aimed to (a) document the extent of henipa- and filovirus exposure among Malagasy fruit bats, (b) explore seasonality in seroprevalence and serostatus in these bat populations and (c) compare mechanistic hypotheses for possible transmission dynamics underlying these data. To this end, we amassed and analysed a unique dataset documenting longitudinal serological henipa- and filovirus dynamics in three Madagascar fruit bat species. We uncovered serological evidence of exposure to Hendra-/Nipah-related henipaviruses in Eidolon dupreanum, Pteropus rufus and Rousettus madagascariensis, to Cedar-related henipaviruses in E. dupreanum and R. madagascariensis and to Ebola-related filoviruses in P. rufus and R. madagascariensis. We demonstrated significant seasonality in population-level seroprevalence and individual serostatus for multiple viruses across these species, linked to the female reproductive calendar. An age-structured subset of the data highlighted evidence of waning maternal antibodies in neonates, increasing seroprevalence in young and decreasing seroprevalence late in life. Comparison of mechanistic epidemiological models fit to these data offered support for transmission hypotheses permitting waning antibodies but retained immunity in adult-age bats. Our findings suggest that bats may seasonally modulate mechanisms of pathogen control, with consequences for population-level transmission. Additionally, we narrow the field of candidate transmission hypotheses by which bats are presumed to host and transmit potentially zoonotic viruses globally.

Fatal phaeohyphomycosis due to Exophiala sp. infection in a free-living common toad Bufo bufo.

A wild adult female common toad Bufo bufo found dead in Scotland in September 2016 was observed to have hepatomegaly, a large soft tissue mass in the coelomic cavity (2.7 g, 3.5 × 2.3 × 1.8 cm) and numerous dark-red papules (1-2 mm diameter) in the skin and subjacent tissue over the back and dorsal aspects of the limbs. Histopathological examination identified marked hepatitis and coelomitis associated with pigmented fungal hyphae, which are results consistent with a diagnosis of phaeohyphomycosis. Sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer region and the D1-D2 region of the large subunit of the ribosomal RNA gene from affected liver tissue identified the presence of Exophiala (Chaetothyriales) sp., a black yeast previously identified as a cause of amphibian phaeohyphomycosis. To our knowledge, this is the first published report of Exophiala sp. in a wild or captive amphibian in Europe and the first description of phaeohyphomycosis affecting a free-living amphibian in Great Britain. Exophiala spp. are saprobes and opportunistic pathogens. It has been postulated that phaeohyphomycosis is a disease of immunocompromised amphibians; however, we found no evidence of significant concurrent infection or generalised debility in this common toad. Phaeohyphomycosis appears to be a sporadic cause of mortality in amphibians, and this report adds to the growing list of pathogens known to affect wild amphibians in Europe.

Demodicosis in a captive African straw-coloured fruit bat (Eidolon helvum).

Demodicosis is most frequently observed in the domestic dog (Canis familiaris), but it has rarely been reported in bats (Chiroptera). The overpopulation of Demodex spp. that causes dermatological changes is generally associated with a compromised immune system. We describe the gross and histological features of generalized demodicosis in an adult female African straw-coloured fruit bat (Eidolon helvum) drawn from a captive research colony. The histology of the lesions revealed comedones and follicular infundubular cysts harbouring numerous Demodex spp. mites, eliciting a minimal inflammatory response in the adjacent dermis. The histological examination of a full set of tissues did not reveal clear evidence of immunosuppression, although a clinical history of recent abortion and possible stressors due to captivity could be considered risk factors for the demodicosis. Attempts to determine the Demodex species using PCR on DNA extracted from the formalin fixed paraffin embedded tissue failed. This is the first clinical and histological description of demodicosis in Eidolon helvum.

LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES INFECTION OF FREE-LIVING WESTERN EUROPEAN HEDGEHOGS (ERINACEUS EUROPAEUS).

Listeria monocytogenes is a ubiquitous environmental bacterium that causes disease in a wide range of species. Infection with this pathogen is most frequently diagnosed in ruminant livestock, but is also known to infect people and occasionally wildlife. Postmortem examinations of Western European hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) in Great Britain (2011-2017) identified five (5/266, 2%, 95% confidence interval: 0.8-4.3%) animals with L. monocytogenes infection. The L. monocytogenes isolates comprised three serogroup 1/2a and two serogroup 4 from three multilocus sequence types (2, 37, and 121), all of which were different by single-nucleotide polymorphism analysis, indicating they were distinct and epidemiologically unrelated. These findings are consistent with hedgehogs contracting sporadic infection from the environment, perhaps through eating soil-dwelling invertebrates. Examination of data from scanning surveillance programs focused on other British wildlife species indicates that the hedgehog is one of the wildlife species from which L. monocytogenes has been most frequently identified to date in Great Britain. However, further studies of multiple taxa with comparable sampling efforts are required to assess the relative frequency of L. monocytogenes infection in different wildlife species. The bacterium was isolated from extraintestinal sites in multiple hedgehogs, which may indicate septicemia. However, histological examination was limited and could not discriminate subclinical infection from disease (i.e., listeriosis). Although L. monocytogenes is a zoonotic pathogen, disease in people is typically contracted from the ingestion of contaminated foods. The risk to immunocompetent people of contracting listeriosis from hedgehogs is considered very low to negligible.

High prevalence of chigger mite infection in a forest-specialist frog with evidence of parasite-related granulomatous myositis.

Amphibians are hosts for a wide variety of micro- and macro-parasites. Chigger mites from the Hannemania genus are known to infect a wide variety of amphibian species across the Americas. In Chile, three species (H. pattoni, H. gonzaleacunae and H. ortizi) have been described infecting native anurans; however, neither impacts nor the microscopic lesions associated with these parasites have been described. Here, we document 70% prevalence of chigger mite infection in Eupsophus roseus and absence of infection in Rhinoderma darwinii in the Nahuelbuta Range, Chile. Additionally, we describe the macroscopic and microscopic lesions produced by H. ortizi in one of these species, documenting previously undescribed lesions (granulomatous myositis) within the host's musculature. These findings highlight that further research to better understand the impacts of chigger mite infection on amphibians is urgently required in Chile and elsewhere.

Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system.

The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host-parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, statistical and mathematical modelling to explore the dynamics of the apparently stable Rhinoderma darwinii-Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system. Our results indicate that Bd-induced population extirpation may occur even in the absence of epidemics and where parasite prevalence is relatively low. These empirical findings are consistent with previous theoretical predictions showing that highly pathogenic parasites are able to regulate host populations even at extremely low prevalence, highlighting that disease threats should be investigated as a cause of population declines even in the absence of an overt increase in mortality.

Reconstructing the emergence of a lethal infectious disease of wildlife supports a key role for spread through translocations by humans.

There have been few reconstructions of wildlife disease emergences, despite their extensive impact on biodiversity and human health. This is in large part attributable to the lack of structured and robust spatio-temporal datasets. We overcame logistical problems of obtaining suitable information by using data from a citizen science project and formulating spatio-temporal models of the spread of a wildlife pathogen (genus Ranavirus, infecting amphibians). We evaluated three main hypotheses for the rapid increase in disease reports in the UK: that outbreaks were being reported more frequently, that climate change had altered the interaction between hosts and a previously widespread pathogen, and that disease was emerging due to spatial spread of a novel pathogen. Our analysis characterized localized spread from nearby ponds, consistent with amphibian dispersal, but also revealed a highly significant trend for elevated rates of additional outbreaks in localities with higher human population density-pointing to human activities in also spreading the virus. Phylogenetic analyses of pathogen genomes support the inference of at least two independent introductions into the UK. Together these results point strongly to humans repeatedly translocating ranaviruses into the UK from other countries and between UK ponds, and therefore suggest potential control measures.

Detection of the European epidemic strain of Trichomonas gallinae in finches, but not other non-columbiformes, in the absence of macroscopic disease.

Finch trichomonosis is an emerging infectious disease affecting European passerines caused by a clonal strain of Trichomonas gallinae. Migrating chaffinches (Fringilla coelebs) were proposed as the likely vector of parasite spread from Great Britain to Fennoscandia. To test for such parasite carriage, we screened samples of oesophagus/crop from 275 Apodiform, Passeriform and Piciform birds (40 species) which had no macroscopic evidence of trichomonosis (i.e. necrotic ingluvitis). These birds were found dead following the emergence of trichomonosis in Great Britain, 2009-2012, and were examined post-mortem. Polymerase chain reactions were used to detect (ITS1/5·8S rRNA/ITS2 region and single subunit rRNA gene) and to subtype (Fe-hydrogenase gene) T. gallinae. Trichomonas gallinae was detected in six finches [three chaffinches, two greenfinches (Chloris chloris) and a bullfinch (Pyrrhula pyrrhula)]. Sequence data had 100% identity to the European finch epidemic A1 strain for each species. While these results are consistent with finches being vectors of T. gallinae, alternative explanations include the presence of incubating or resolved T. gallinae infections. The inclusion of histopathological examination would help elucidate the significance of T. gallinae infection in the absence of macroscopic lesions.

Network analysis of host-virus communities in bats and rodents reveals determinants of cross-species transmission.

Bats are natural reservoirs of several important emerging viruses. Cross-species transmission appears to be quite common among bats, which may contribute to their unique reservoir potential. Therefore, understanding the importance of bats as reservoirs requires examining them in a community context rather than concentrating on individual species. Here, we use a network approach to identify ecological and biological correlates of cross-species virus transmission in bats and rodents, another important host group. We show that given our current knowledge the bat viral sharing network is more connected than the rodent network, suggesting viruses may pass more easily between bat species. We identify host traits associated with important reservoir species: gregarious bats are more likely to share more viruses and bats which migrate regionally are important for spreading viruses through the network. We identify multiple communities of viral sharing within bats and rodents and highlight potential species traits that can help guide studies of novel pathogen emergence.