Epidemiology of prurigo nodularis in England: a retrospective database analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prurigo nodularis is a debilitating skin condition that is classified as rare by the Genetic and Rare Diseases Information Center (GARD) and the National Organization for Rare Diseases (NORD). There are currently no estimates of the prevalence of prurigo nodularis in England. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to address this data gap by describing the epidemiology of prurigo nodularis in a representative dataset derived from the English National Health Service. METHODS: The study utilized data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient data. Patients with a diagnosis of prurigo nodularis were selected by clinical code in the primary care or inpatient datasets. Case definition was based on a minimum of two distinct diagnoses to maximize specificity. Point prevalence was calculated for the midpoint of 2018 and incidence rates from 2008 to 2018 were presented. For those classified as incident cases, demographic and clinical characteristics were reported. In sensitivity analyses the case definition was modified to relax the multiple diagnosis criteria and to restrict cases to those diagnosed within a maximum of 4 or 10 years of the midpoint prevalence date. RESULTS: Overall, 11 656 patients within the dataset had at least one prurigo nodularis diagnosis. Following application of the relevant inclusion criteria, 2743 patients formed the point prevalent cohort; the estimated prevalence was 3·27 patients per 10 000 population [95% confidence interval (CI) 3·15-3·40]. In sensitivity analyses the estimated prevalence ranged from 2·24 (95% CI 2·14-2·34) to 6·98 (95% CI 6·80-7·16). Incidence over the study period was 2·88 per 100 000 patient-years. Comorbidity was relatively high in this population, notably for atopic dermatitis (52·2%), depression (41·1%) and anxiety (35·4%). CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the NORD/GARD classification of prurigo nodularis as a rare disease with a prevalence of 3·27 patients per 10 000 population, which equates to 18 471 patients living with the disease in England in 2018. The relatively high prevalence of comorbidity observed for these patients may increase the complexity of management.

The absolute risk of incident type 2 diabetes following exposure to systemic corticosteroids in selected steroid-related and phenotypic groups.

AIMS: Exposure to corticosteroids is known to increase the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. We estimated the risk of incident type 2 diabetes in selected patient groups exposed to systemic corticosteroids. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a retrospective, observational cohort study, using real-world data from UK primary care, patients were selected who had at least one episode of exposure to oral or intravenous corticosteroids for any indication. Corticosteroid-exposed patients were matched with non-exposed patients. Relative dosage was estimated as a weight-based, prednisolone-equivalent dose. Crude rates of progression to type 2 diabetes were determined for patient groups defined by relevant steroid-related and phenotypic characteristics present at corticosteroid exposure. RESULTS: Overall, rates of incidence of type 2 diabetes were 12.5 and 6.7 events per thousand person-years' (pkpy) exposure, respectively, in those who received at least one dose of corticosteroids versus those never exposed. This represented a rate ratio of 1.85 (95% CI 1.74-1.97). The incidence of type 2 diabetes was found to be associated with several of the selected characteristics, both individually and multi-dimensionally. The highest rate of incident type 2 diabetes was observed in very severely obese men aged 46-55 years having had the longest corticosteroid exposure and highest corticosteroid dose (190 incident events pkpy exposure). CONCLUSIONS: Corticosteroid exposure increased the risk of incident type 2 diabetes, and there was evidence of both a dose-response and a duration response. The impact of corticosteroid exposure upon the rate of incident type 2 diabetes appeared, however, to involve a complex, multi-dimensional interaction between the selected characteristics, some of which might be impacted by reverse causality.

Insulin-like growth factor-1, growth hormone and disease outcomes in acromegaly: A population study.

CONTEXT: A lack of consensus remains about the relative importance of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) and growth hormone (GH) in predicting adverse outcomes in patients with acromegaly. OBJECTIVE: To describe the differing association between IGF-1 and GH and major disease outcomes in acromegaly. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PATIENTS: United Kingdom National Health Service patients with acromegaly who had an IGF-1 and/or a GH measurement recorded following diagnosis, prior to December 2019. MEASUREMENTS: A composite endpoint including all-cause mortality (ACM), type 2 diabetes (DM), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) or cancer was the primary outcome. These outcomes were also analysed individually. Follow-up period was capped at 5 years. RESULTS: A maximum of 417 cases and 332 cases were eligible for the IGF-1 and GH analyses, respectively, comprising 1041.5 and 938.9 years of follow-up. There was a direct association between increased IGF-1 concentration and adjusted event risk for the composite endpoint (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.5); in GH, the HR was 1.1 (1.0-1.2). For the individual endpoints in relation to IGF-1 level, the HRs were ACM (1.2; 0.93-1.5), MACE (1.2; 0.64-2.1), DM (1.53; 1.09-2.2) and cancer (1.3; 0.95-1.7). For GH, the HRs were ACM (1.1; 0.97-1.2), MACE (0.99; 0.73-1.3), DM (1.1; 0.99-1.2) and cancer (0.90; 0.66-1.2). CONCLUSIONS: In this contemporary data set with extended follow-up, IGF-1 and GH concentrations showed an association with major adverse outcomes from acromegaly.

Impact of treatment with pioglitazone on stroke outcomes: A real-world database analysis.

AIMS: Randomized controlled trials have reported an association between pioglitazone and reduced incidence of stroke in type 2 diabetic (T2DM) and insulin-resistant populations. We investigated this association within a real-world database. MATERIALS AND METHODS: T2DM patients who initiated pioglitazone between 2000 and 2012 were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a UK routine data source. Two non-exposed control cohorts were matched according to age, gender, HbA1c, diabetes duration, stroke history, co-morbidities and prior T2DM regimen. Control cohort-1 comprised patients initiating a new T2DM therapy as their respective case initiated pioglitazone. Control cohort-2 maintained the same T2DM regimen as their respective case prior to the case initiating pioglitazone. Primary outcome was incident stroke; other outcomes included mortality, length of hospital stay and stroke recurrence. RESULTS: A total of 4234 patients initiating pioglitazone were matched to controls in cohort-1 and 3604 in cohort-2. For the primary outcome there were significantly reduced hazard ratios (HRs) for cases: controls. For cohort 1, the HR was 0.666 (95% CI, 0.466-0.952) during the therapy period and was 0.750 (0.612-0.919) over the entire observation period; for cohort 2, respective HRs were 0.516 (0.336-0.794) and 0.773 (0.611-0.978). There was no significant difference in 30-day mortality rate or rate of recurrent stroke. For stroke events that required hospitalization, there was a significant difference in length of stay for patients discharged to usual residence (median, 3.0 days vs 7.0 days; P = .008) for control cohort-2 while undergoing treatment. CONCLUSIONS: In support of evidence from 2 large randomized trials, these observational data show that pioglitazone has a potent effect in reducing stroke events in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Impact of differing glucose-lowering regimens on the pattern of association between glucose control and survival.

AIMS: To characterize survival in relation to achieved glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) level within alternative glucose-lowering regimens with differing risks of hypoglycaemia. METHODS: Data were extracted from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink and the corresponding Hospital Episode Statistics. Patients with type 2 diabetes prescribed glucose-lowering therapy in monotherapy or dual therapy with metformin between 2004 and 2013 were identified. Risk of all-cause mortality within treatment cohorts was evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards model, introducing mean HbA1c as a quarterly updated, time-dependent covariable. RESULTS: There were 6646 deaths in a total follow-up period of 374 591 years. Survival for lower (<7%) vs moderate HbA1c levels (≥7%, <8.5%) differed by cohort: metformin, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-1.12); sulphonylurea, aHR 1.11 (95% CI 0.99-1.25); insulin, aHR 1.47 (95% CI 1.25-1.72); combined regimens with low hypoglycaemia risk, aHR 1.02 (95% CI 0.94-1.10); and combined regimens with higher hypoglycaemia risk excluding insulin, aHR 1.24 (95% CI 1.13-1.35) and including insulin, aHR 1.28 (95% CI 1.18-1.37). Higher HbA1c levels were associated with increased mortality in regimens with low hypoglycaemia risk. Post hoc analysis by HbA1c deciles revealed an elevated risk of all-cause mortality for the lowest deciles across all cohorts, but particularly in those regimens associated with hypoglycaemia. High HbA1c was associated with no difference, or a small increase in mortality risk in regimens with increased risk of hypoglycaemia. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of mortality risk across the range of HbA1c differed by glucose-lowering regimen. Lower HbA1c was associated with increased mortality risk compared with moderate control, especially in those regimens associated with hypoglycaemia. High levels of HbA1c were associated with the expected elevated mortality risk in regimens with low hypoglycaemia risk.

Healthcare resource utilization and related financial costs associated with glucose lowering with either exenatide or basal insulin: A retrospective cohort study.

AIMS: Type 2 diabetes is a major health problem placing increasing demands on healthcare systems. Our objective was to estimate healthcare resource use and related financial costs following treatment with exenatide-based regimens prescribed as once-weekly (EQW) or twice-daily (EBID) formulations, compared with regimens based on basal insulin (BI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). Patients with type 2 diabetes who received exenatide or BI between 2009 and 2014 as their first recorded exposure to injectable therapy were selected. Costs were attributed to primary care contacts, diabetes-related prescriptions and inpatient admissions using standard UK healthcare costing methods (2014 prices). Frequency and costs were compared between cohorts before and after matching by propensity score using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Groups of 8723, 218 and 2180 patients receiving BI, EQW and EBID, respectively, were identified; 188 and 1486 patients receiving EQW and EBID, respectively, were matched 1:1 to patients receiving BI by propensity score. Among unmatched cohorts, total crude mean costs per patient-year were £2765 for EQW, £2549 for EBID and £4080 for BI. Compared with BI, the adjusted annual cost ratio (aACR) was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.91-0.92) for EQW and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.82-0.82) for EBID. Corresponding costs for the propensity-matched subgroups were £2646 vs £3283 (aACR, 0.80, 0.80-0.81) for EQW vs BI and £2532 vs £3070 (aACR, 0.84, 0.84-0.84) for EBID vs BI. CONCLUSION: Overall, exenatide once-weekly and twice-daily-based regimens were associated with reduced healthcare resource use and costs compared with basal-insulin-based regimens.

Cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality associated with sulphonylureas compared with other antihyperglycaemic drugs: A Bayesian meta-analysis of survival data.

AIM: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality associated with sulphonylureas (SUs) vs other glucose lowering drugs in patients with T2DM (T2DM). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic review of Medline, Embase, Cochrane and clinicaltrials.gov was conducted for studies comparing SUs with placebo or other antihyperglycaemic drugs in patients with T2DM. A cloglog model was used in the Bayesian framework to obtain comparative hazard ratios (HRs) for the different interventions. For the analysis of observational data, conventional fixed-effect pairwise meta-analyses were used. RESULTS: The systematic review identified 82 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and 26 observational studies. Meta-analyses of RCT data showed an increased risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular-related mortality for SUs compared with all other treatments combined (HR 1.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.44 and HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.21-1.77, respectively). The risk of myocardial infarction was significantly higher for SUs compared with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.14-6.57 and HR 41.80, 95% CI 1.64-360.4, respectively). The risk of stroke was significantly higher for SUs than for DPP-4 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists, thiazolidinediones and insulin. CONCLUSIONS: The present meta-analysis showed an association between SU therapy and a higher risk of major cardiovascular disease-related events compared with other glucose lowering drugs. Results of ongoing RCTs, which should be available in 2018, will provide definitive results on the risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality associated with SUs vs other antihyperglycaemic drugs.

Effectiveness of the capsaicin 8% patch in the management of peripheral neuropathic pain in European clinical practice: the ASCEND study.

BACKGROUND: In randomised studies, the capsaicin 8% patch has demonstrated effective pain relief in patients with peripheral neuropathic pain (PNP) arising from different aetiologies. METHODS: ASCEND was an open-label, non-interventional study of patients with non-diabetes-related PNP who received capsaicin 8% patch treatment, according to usual clinical practice, and were followed for ≤52 weeks. Co-primary endpoints were percentage change in the mean numeric pain rating scale (NPRS) 'average daily pain' score from baseline to the average of Weeks 2 and 8 following first treatment; and median time from first to second treatment. The primary analysis was intended to assess analgesic equivalence between post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) and other PNP aetiologies. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL, using EQ-5D), Patient Global Impression of Change (PGIC) and tolerability were also assessed. RESULTS: Following first application, patients experienced a 26.6% (95% CI: 23.6, 29.62; n = 412) reduction in mean NPRS score from baseline to Weeks 2 and 8. Equivalence was demonstrated between PHN and the neuropathic back pain, post-operative and post-traumatic neuropathic pain and 'other' PNP aetiology subgroups. The median time from first to second treatment was 191 days (95% CI: 147, 235; n = 181). Forty-four percent of all patients were responders (≥30% reduction in NPRS score from baseline to Weeks 2 and 8) following first treatment, and 86.9% (n = 159/183) remained so at Week 12. A sustained pain response was observed until Week 52, with a 37.0% (95% CI: 31.3, 42.7; n = 176) reduction in mean NPRS score from baseline. Patients with the shortest duration of pain (0-0.72 years) experienced the highest pain response from baseline to Weeks 2 and 8. Mean EQ-5D index score improved by 0.199 utils (responders: 0.292 utils) from baseline to Week 2 and was maintained until Week 52. Most patients reported improvements in PGIC at Week 2 and at all follow-up assessments regardless of number of treatments received. Adverse events were primarily mild or moderate reversible application site reactions. CONCLUSION: In European clinical practice, the capsaicin 8% patch provided effective and sustained pain relief, substantially improved HRQoL, improved overall health status and was generally well tolerated in a heterogeneous PNP population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01737294 Date of registration - October 22, 2012.

Direct medical costs of severe hypoglycaemic events in patients with type 2 diabetes in England: A retrospective database study.

AIMS: Hypoglycaemia in patients with diabetes can be induced by insulins and sulfonylureas. We assessed the real-world impact of specific monotherapy and combination regimens on hypoglycaemic events requiring hospitalisation and related secondary costs to the English healthcare system. METHODS: This retrospective observational study used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with linked hospital admission data during 2008-2012. Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using antihyperglycaemic agents (AHAs) were assigned to mutually exclusive subgroups (insulin- and non-insulin-containing regimens; treatment groups of interest; age group) based on treatment at index date (date of first AHA prescription). Outcomes were number and cost of hospital admissions with hypoglycaemic event-related diagnosis codes. RESULTS: We identified 110 206 patients with T2DM (mean age 64.9 years, time since diagnosis 5.4 years, HbA1c at index 7.4%), with 439 hypoglycaemic events requiring inpatient hospitalisation (mean length of stay 6.3 days, mean cost/stay £1351). Event rates and cost of stay were highest in patients treated with sulfonylurea- or insulin-based regimens. Event rates, duration and cost of stay were higher in older patients. CONCLUSION: Rates of severe hypoglycaemic events varied substantially between T2DM regimens. In this study of patients treated in clinical practice in England, sulfonylurea- and insulin-based regimens were associated with the highest event rates and costs associated with hospitalisation for severe hypoglycaemic events; hospitalisation for severe hypoglycaemic events was not observed with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor monotherapy or with metformin.

The impact on hospital resource utilisation of treatment of hepatic encephalopathy with rifaximin-α.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Rifaximin-α reduces the risk of recurrence of overt hepatic encephalopathy. However, there remain concerns regarding the financial cost of the drug. We aimed to study the impact of treatment with rifaximin-α on healthcare resource utilisation using data from seven UK liver treatment centres. METHODS: All seven centres agreed a standardised data set and data characterising clinical, demographic and emergency hospital admissions were collected retrospectively for the time periods 3, 6 and 12 months before and following initiation of rifaximin-α. Admission rates and hospital length of stay before and during therapy were compared. Costs of admissions and drug acquisition were estimated using published sources. Multivariate analyses were carried out to assess the relative impact of various factors on hospital length of stay. RESULTS: Data were available from 326 patients. Following the commencement of rifaximin, the total hospital length of stay reduced by an estimated 31-53%, equating to a reduction in inpatient costs of between £4858 and £6607 per year. Taking into account drug costs of £3379 for 1-year treatment with rifaximin-α, there was an estimated annual mean saving of £1480-£3228 per patient. CONCLUSIONS: Initiation of treatment with rifaximin-α was associated with a marked reduction in the number of hospital admissions and hospital length of stay. These data suggest that treatment of patients with rifaximin-α for hepatic encephalopathy was generally cost saving.

Cost of dose escalation in people with rheumatoid arthritis treated with tumour necrosis factor inhibitors across Europe.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to calculate the marginal cost of dose escalation in people with rheumatoid arthritis treated with tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors across Europe. METHODS: The proportion of people who escalate their dose of TNF inhibitor and the average percentage increase in TNF inhibitor cost associated with escalators versus non-escalators was calculated from previously published estimates, weighted by the sample size for each study. The number of people with rheumatoid arthritis treated with TNF inhibitors and the corresponding total drug sales were obtained for five European countries from Decision Resources' Pharmacor Market Forecast. Method 1 assumed that total sales of a TNF inhibitor represented the cost of an escalator multiplied by the number of escalators plus the cost of a non-escalator multiplied by the number of non-escalators. Method 2 assumed that the drug cost per day used to forecast total sales was calculated using the dose of TNF inhibitor used by non-escalators. The marginal cost of TNF inhibitor dose escalation was estimated by multiplying the difference in cost between escalators and non-escalators by the number of escalators. RESULTS: The estimated increase in TNF inhibitor costs associated with dose escalation in people with rheumatoid arthritis across five European countries (Germany, France, UK, Spain and Italy) was €51.5-54.4 million for adalimumab, €44.8-52.8 million for infliximab and €5.8-5.9 million for etanercept. CONCLUSIONS: Dose escalation of the TNF inhibitors adalimumab, etanercept and infliximab in people with rheumatoid arthritis has resulted in an increase in TNF inhibitor costs across five European countries.

Health utility of patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) after failure of imatinib and sunitinib: findings from GRID, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase III study of regorafenib versus placebo.

BACKGROUND: In this analysis we report patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) refractory to imatinib and sunitinib therapy as derived from the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) for progression-free (PF) and progressive disease health status. METHODS: Data were analyzed from a phase III trial conducted at 57 hospitals in 17 countries (trial registration number, NCT01271712). Patients with advanced GIST were randomized (2:1) to receive blinded treatment using oral regorafenib 160 mg daily or placebo, plus best supportive care (BSC) in both groups, for the first 3 weeks of each 4-week cycle. EQ-5D-3L was administered on day 1 of each cycle before contact with their physician and before any study-related procedures. The effect of disease progression on the utility of EQ-5D was tested with paired-samples comparison and general linear mixed modeling (GLMM). RESULTS: One hundred and eighty five patients [93 % of the intention-to-treat (ITT) population] completed 803 EQ-5D questionnaires: 77.7 % in progression-free (PF) state, 6.5 % at progression, 13.9 % following first progression, and 1.9 % after second progression. Mean baseline utility was 0.767 (SD 0.221) with no significant between-group differences for active treatment and BSC. The first post-progression health state was 0.647 (SD 0.343), suggesting significantly impaired health-related quality of life after confirmed disease progression showed a decrease of -0.120 (paired samples t test, p = 0.001). GLMM showed no effect of study treatment or cycle number on utility. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate a significant and clinically meaningful difference in health state utility values between PF and progression. Utility values remained stable over successive regorafenib cycles after controlling for disease status and treatment type.

Treatment of rheumatoid arthritis with etanercept with reference to disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs: long-term safety and survival using prospective, observational data.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine the long-term safety of etanercept (ETN) in comparison with conventional DMARDs in a large observational cohort of RA patients in the UK. METHODS: Data were made available from the British Society of Rheumatology Biologics Register for a cohort of patients with RA treated with ETN and a reference cohort of RA patients treated with conventional DMARDs (maximum follow-up 10 years). The adjusted risk of events was compared using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: There were 3529 eligible ETN-treated patients (16,919 person-years) and 2864 conventional DMARD-treated patients (11,095 person-years), with notable differences between groups at baseline. Crude mortality rates were 12.0 vs 20.1 events per 1000 person-years for ETN and conventional DMARD patients, respectively, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 0.72 (95% CI 0.54, 0.96). There was no difference in the long-term risk of serious infections (aHR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.83, 1.25). However, the risk was increased for ETN in the first 2 years (aHR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.16, 2.09; aHR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.06, 1.65). The aHRs (95% CIs) of various outcomes were cancer, 0.84 (0.68, 1.03); lymphoproliferative malignancy specifically, 0.51 (0.28, 0.95); all other serious adverse events, 0.70 (0.56, 0.87) and cardiac events specifically, 0.52 (0.37, 0.72). CONCLUSION: There was no evidence of adverse outcome from long-term exposure to ETN. There was evidence of improved survival, reduced cardiovascular events and reduced lymphoproliferative malignancies.

Association between disease activity and risk of serious infections in subjects with rheumatoid arthritis treated with etanercept or disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the risk of serious infection in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) receiving etanercept (ETN) or disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and to identify factors that predict a higher risk. METHODS: Five-year data from the British Society of Rheumatology Biologics Register (BSRBR), a prospective observational study of patients with active RA treated with ETN, were used. These data were compared with a cohort of patients receiving DMARDs with active RA. RESULTS: Total follow-up was 19,964 patient-years (py; ETN, 14,381 py; DMARDs, 5583 py). Over the study period, 651 first-recorded serious infections were reported (ETN, 469 [39.9 per 1000 py]; DMARDs, 182 [35.0 per 1000 py]). Overall the risk of serious infection was similar for the 2 treatments; however, in the first 6 months of treatment the hazard ratio (HR) was higher in the ETN than the DMARD group (1.979; p=0.015). A linear association was observed between the serious infection rate and disease-activity score in 28 joints (DAS28) in patients from each treatment group and overall (DAS28 <4, 27.1 per 1000 py; DAS28 ≥8, 64.4 per 1000 py; 7.5% increase in serious infection for each unit increase of DAS28 score at baseline). In a time-dependent analysis, a DAS28 change of 1 unit during follow-up predicted a 27% increase in serious infection rates. CONCLUSIONS: No significant increase in the risk of serious infection was observed with ETN versus DMARDs over the 5-year study; a linear relationship existed between the serious infection rate and disease activity, as measured by DAS28.

Estimation of health-related utility (EQ-5D index) in subjects with seasonal allergic rhinoconjunctivitis to evaluate health gain associated with sublingual grass allergen immunotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Grass allergen immunotherapy (AIT) reduces symptom severity in seasonal allergic rhinoconjunctivitis (ARC) but its impact on general health-related utility has not been characterised for the purposes of economic evaluation. The aim of this study was to model the preferred measure of utility, EQ-5D index, from symptom severity and estimate incremental quality adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with SQ-standardised grass immunotherapy tablet (GRAZAX®, 75,000 SQ-T/2,800 BAU, ALK, Denmark). METHODS: Data were analysed from five consecutive pollen seasons in a randomised placebo controlled trial of GRAZAX®. Binomial and Gaussian mixed effects modelling related weekly EQ-5D index score to daily symptom and medication scores (DSS & DMS respectively). In turn, daily EQ-5D index was estimated from ARC symptoms and medication use. RESULTS: DSS and DMS were the principal predictors of 'perfect' health (EQ-5D = 1.000; binomial) and 'imperfect' health (EQ-5D < 1.000; Gaussian). Each unit increase in DSS and DMS reduced the odds of 'perfect' health (EQ-5D = 1.000) by 27% and 16% respectively, and reduced 'imperfect' health by 0.17 and 0.13, respectively. Gender remained the only other significant main fixed effect (Male odds ratio [OR] = 1.82). Incremental estimated EQ-5D index utility for GRAZAX® was observed from day -30 to day +70 of the pooled pollen season; mean daily utility for GRAZAX® = 0.938 units (95%CI 0.932-0.943) vs. 0.914 (0.907-0.921) for placebo, an incremental difference of 0.0238 (p < 0.001). This translates into an incremental 0.0324 Quality Adjusted Life Years over the five year study period. CONCLUSIONS: ARC symptoms and medication use are the main predictors of EQ-5D index. The incremental QALYs observed for GRAZAX® may not fully describe the health benefits of this treatment, suggesting that economic modelling may be conservative.

Predicting hepatic encephalopathy in patients with cirrhosis: A UK population-based study and validation of risk scores.

BACKGROUND: HE is a common neurologic complication in cirrhosis associated with substantial disease and economic burden. HE symptoms are nonspecific and there are limited ways of identifying patients with cirrhosis at high risk of later developing HE. A risk score was previously developed to identify patients at risk of developing HE in a predominately male US cohort. Here, we evaluated the performance of the HE risk scores in a UK cohort study. METHODS: Health care records from Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked Hospital Episode Statistics were used to select patients with cirrhosis who were diagnosed with HE, confirmed by a diagnosis code for HE or a rifaximin-α prescription. The index date was the date of incident cirrhosis. The study period was from January 2003 to June 2019. RESULTS: A total of 40,809 patients with cirrhosis were selected in the UK cohort, of whom 59% were male. A total of 1561 patients were diagnosed with HE. Applying the UK cohort to the baseline sensitivity risk cutoff (≥-11) from the US cohort provided a sensitivity of 92% and a negative predictive value of 99%. Within a longitudinal model, applying a sensitivity cutoff of ≥-3 to this cohort gave a sensitivity of 89% and a negative predictive value of 99%. CONCLUSIONS: Using data from the UK, the previously developed HE risk scores were found to be reliable for selecting those most likely to progress to HE in patients with liver cirrhosis. Despite the HE risk scores originally being estimated using the data from a predominately male US cohort, the scores were validated and found to be generalizable to female patients.

Real-world evidence from the first online healthcare analytics platform-Livingstone. Validation of its descriptive epidemiology module.

Incidence and prevalence are key epidemiological determinants characterizing the quantum of a disease. We compared incidence and prevalence estimates derived automatically from the first ever online, essentially real-time, healthcare analytics platform-Livingstone-against findings from comparable peer-reviewed studies in order to validate the descriptive epidemiology module. The source of routine NHS data for Livingstone was the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). After applying a general search strategy looking for any disease or condition, 76 relevant studies were first retrieved, of which 10 met pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Findings reported in these studies were compared with estimates produced automatically by Livingstone. The published reports described elements of the epidemiology of 14 diseases or conditions. Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was used to evaluate the concordance between findings from Livingstone and those detailed in the published studies. The concordance of incidence values in the final year reported by each study versus Livingstone was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.89-0.98), whilst for all annual incidence values the concordance was 0.93 (0.91-0.94). For prevalence, concordance for the final annual prevalence reported in each study versus Livingstone was 1.00 (0.99-1.00) and for all reported annual prevalence values, the concordance was 0.93 (0.90-0.95). The concordance between Livingstone and the latest published findings was near perfect for prevalence and substantial for incidence. For the first time, it is now possible to automatically generate reliable descriptive epidemiology from routine health records, and in near-real time. Livingstone provides the first mechanism to rapidly generate standardised, descriptive epidemiology for all clinical events from real world data.

Comorbid diseases and conditions in people with HIV in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to characterize the risk of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in the UK progressing to pre-specified HIV-associated comorbidities, compared with matched, HIV-negative controls. METHODS: Primary and secondary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and linked Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) were used to identify PLHIV, and a matched cohort from the HIV-negative population. Kaplan Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the risk of developing comorbidities including central nervous system (CNS) disorders, end-stage renal disease, osteoporosis, diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypertension, stroke and cancer. RESULTS: A total of 2945 PLHIV were matched to a cohort of 5890 HIV-negative controls. PLHIV demonstrated an increased hazard ratio (HR) for time to development of incident sleep disorders, depression, osteoporosis, stroke, cancer and renal disease when compared with their matched HIV-negative control. The HRs for anxiety, hypertension, diabetes and CVD were not significantly increased. CONCLUSIONS: PLHIV in the UK were at a higher risk of developing a number of comorbid conditions, highlighting the need for regular attendance of health reviews such as the annual health reviews recommended by the British HIV Associations (BHIVA) quality standard for care, which are currently not uniformly conducted.

Survival as a function of HbA(1c) in people with type 2 diabetes: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Results of intervention studies in patients with type 2 diabetes have led to concerns about the safety of aiming for normal blood glucose concentrations. We assessed survival as a function of HbA(1c) in people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Two cohorts of patients aged 50 years and older with type 2 diabetes were generated from the UK General Practice Research Database from November 1986 to November 2008. We identified 27 965 patients whose treatment had been intensified from oral monotherapy to combination therapy with oral blood-glucose lowering agents, and 20 005 who had changed to regimens that included insulin. Those with diabetes secondary to other causes were excluded. All-cause mortality was the primary outcome. Age, sex, smoking status, cholesterol, cardiovascular risk, and general morbidity were identified as important confounding factors, and Cox survival models were adjusted for these factors accordingly. FINDINGS: For combined cohorts, compared with the glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) decile with the lowest hazard (median HbA(1c) 7.5%, IQR 7.5-7.6%), the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality in the lowest HbA(1c) decile (6.4%, 6.1-6.6) was 1.52 (95% CI 1.32-1.76), and in the highest HbA(1c) decile (median 10.5%, IQR 10.1-11.2%) was 1.79 (95% CI 1.56-2.06). Results showed a general U-shaped association, with the lowest HR at an HbA(1c) of about 7.5%. HR for all-cause mortality in people given insulin-based regimens (2834 deaths) versus those given combination oral agents (2035) was 1.49 (95% CI 1.39-1.59). INTERPRETATION: Low and high mean HbA(1c) values were associated with increased all-cause mortality and cardiac events. If confirmed, diabetes guidelines might need revision to include a minimum HbA(1c) value. FUNDING: Eli Lilly and Company.

Deriving health state utilities for the numerical pain rating scale.

BACKGROUND: The use of patient reported outcome measures within cost-effectiveness analysis has become commonplace. However, specific measures are required that produce values, referred to as 'utilities', that are capable of generating quality adjusted life years. One such measure - the EQ-5D - has come under criticism due to the inherent limitations of its three-level response scales. In evaluations of chronic pain, the numerical pain rating scale (NPRS) which has eleven levels is routinely used which has a greater measurement range, but which can not be used in cost-effetiveness analyses. This study derived utility values for a series of EQ-5D health states that replace the pain dimensions with the NPRS, thereby allowing a potentially greater range of pain intensities to be captured and included in economic analyses. METHODS: Interviews were undertaken with 100 member of the general population. Health state valuations were elicited using the time trade-off approach with a ten year time horizon. Additionally, respondents were asked where the EQ-5D response scale descriptors of moderate and extreme pain lay on the 11-point NPRS scale. RESULTS: 625 valuations were undertaken across the study sample with the crude mean health state utilities showing a negative non-linear relationship with respect to increasing pain intensity. Relative to a NPRS of zero (NPRS0), the successive pain levels (NPRS1-10) had mean decrements in utility of 0.034, 0.043, 0.061, 0.121, 0.144, 0.252, 0.404, 0.575, 0.771 and 0.793, respectively. When respondents were asked to mark on the NPRS scale the EQ-5D pain descriptors of moderate and extreme pain, the median responses were '4' and '8', respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate the potential floor effect of the EQ-5D with respect to pain and provide estimates of health reduction associated with pain intensity described by the NPRS. These estimates are in excess of the decrements produced by an application of the EQ-5D scoring tariff for both the United States and the United Kingdom.