Supplemental Breast MRI for Women with Extremely Dense Breasts: Results of the Second Screening Round of the DENSE Trial.

Background In the first (prevalent) supplemental MRI screening round of the Dense Tissue and Early Breast Neoplasm Screening (DENSE) trial, a considerable number of breast cancers were found at the cost of an increased false-positive rate (FPR). In incident screening rounds, a lower cancer detection rate (CDR) is expected due to a smaller pool of prevalent cancers, and a reduced FPR, due to the availability of prior MRI examinations. Purpose To investigate screening performance indicators of the second round (incidence round) of the DENSE trial. Materials and Methods The DENSE trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01315015) is embedded within the Dutch population-based biennial mammography screening program for women aged 50-75 years. MRI examinations were performed between December 2011 and January 2016. Women were eligible for the second round when they again had a negative screening mammogram 2 years after their first MRI. The recall rate, biopsy rate, CDR, FPR, positive predictive values, and distributions of tumor characteristics were calculated and compared with results of the first round using 95% CIs and χ2 tests. Results A total of 3436 women (median age, 56 years; interquartile range, 48-64 years) underwent a second MRI screening. The CDR was 5.8 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 3.8, 9.0) compared with 16.5 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 13.3, 20.5) in the first round. The FPR was 26.3 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 21.5, 32.3) in the second round versus 79.8 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 72.4, 87.9) in the first round. The positive predictive value for recall was 18% (20 of 110 participants recalled; 95% CI: 12.1, 26.4), and the positive predictive value for biopsy was 24% (20 of 84 participants who underwent biopsy; 95% CI: 16.0, 33.9), both comparable to that of the first round. All tumors in the second round were stage 0-I and node negative. Conclusion The incremental cancer detection rate in the second round was 5.8 per 1000 screening examinations-compared with 16.5 per 1000 screening examinations in the first round. This was accompanied by a strong reduction in the number of false-positive results. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Moy and Gao in this issue.

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤-0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (-71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71-82 km3/y) but negative for models (-450 to -12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated.

Understanding the LCA and ISO water footprint: A response to Hoekstra (2016) "A critique on the water-scarcity weighted water footprint in LCA".

Water footprinting has emerged as an important approach to assess water use related effects from consumption of goods and services. Assessment methods are proposed by two different communities, the Water Footprint Network (WFN) and the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) community. The proposed methods are broadly similar and encompass both the computation of water use and its impacts, but differ in communication of a water footprint result. In this paper, we explain the role and goal of LCA and ISO-compatible water footprinting and resolve the six issues raised by Hoekstra (2016) in "A critique on the water-scarcity weighted water footprint in LCA". By clarifying the concerns, we identify both the overlapping goals in the WFN and LCA water footprint assessments and discrepancies between them. The main differing perspective between the WFN and LCA-based approach seems to relate to the fact that LCA aims to account for environmental impacts, while the WFN aims to account for water productivity of global fresh water as a limited resource. We conclude that there is potential to use synergies in research for the two approaches and highlight the need for proper declaration of the methods applied.

Global and regional ocean mass budget closure since 2003.

In recent sea level studies, discrepancies have arisen in ocean mass observations obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its successor, GRACE Follow-On, with GRACE estimates consistently appearing lower than density-corrected ocean volume observations since 2015. These disparities have raised concerns about potential systematic biases in sea-level observations, with significant implications for our understanding of this essential climate variable. Here, we reconstruct the global and regional ocean mass change through models of ice and water mass changes on land and find that it closely aligns with both GRACE and density-corrected ocean volume observations after implementing recent adjustments to the wet troposphere correction and halosteric sea level. While natural variability in terrestrial water storage is important on interannual timescales, we find that the net increase in ocean mass over 20 years can be almost entirely attributed to ice wastage and human management of water resources.

Making waves: Pulling the plug-Climate change effects will turn gaining into losing streams with detrimental effects on groundwater quality.

In many parts of the world, climate change has already caused a decline in groundwater recharge, whereas groundwater demand for drinking water production and irrigation continues to increase. In such regions, groundwater tables are steadily declining with major consequences for groundwater-surface water interactions. Predominantly gaining streams that rely on discharge of groundwater from the adjacent aquifer turn into predominantly losing streams whose water seeps into the underground. This reversal of groundwater-surface water interactions is associated with an increase of low river flows, drying of stream beds, and a switch of lotic ecosystems from perennial to intermittent, with consequences for fluvial and groundwater dependent ecosystems. Moreover, water infiltrating from rivers and streams can carry a complex mix of contaminants. Accordingly, the diversity and concentrations of compounds detected in groundwater has been increasing over the past decades. During low flow, stream and river discharge may consist mainly of treated wastewater. In losing stream systems, this contaminated water seeps into the adjoining aquifers. This threatens both ecosystems as well as drinking and irrigation water quality. Climate change is therefore severely altering landscape water balances, with groundwater-surface water-interactions having reached a tipping point in many cases. Current model projections harbor huge uncertainties and scientific evidence for these tipping points remains very limited. In particular, quantitative data on groundwater-surface water-interactions are scarce both on the local and the catchment scale. The result is poor public or political awareness, and appropriate management measures await implementation.

ADC Values of Cytologically Benign and Cytologically Malignant 18 F-FDG PET-Positive Lymph Nodes of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Nodal staging (N-staging) in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is essential for treatment planning and prognosis. 18F-fluordeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) has high performance for N-staging, although the distinction between cytologically malignant and reactive PET-positive nodes, and consequently, the selection of nodes for ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration cytology (USgFNAC), is challenging. Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) can help to detect nodal metastases. We aim to investigate the potential of the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) as a metric to distinguish between cytologically reactive and malignant PET-positive nodes in order to improve node selection criteria for USgFNAC. PET-CT, real-time image-fused USgFNAC and DW-MRI to calculate ADC were available for 78 patients offered for routine N-staging. For 167 FDG-positive nodes, differences in the ADC between cytologically benign and malignant PET-positive nodes were evaluated, and both were compared to the ADC values of PET-negative reference nodes. Analyses were also performed in subsets of nodes regarding HPV status. A mild negative correlation between SUVmax and ADC was found. No significant differences in ADC values were observed between cytologically malignant and benign PET-positive nodes overall. Within the subset of non-HPV-related nodes, ADCb0-200-1000 was significantly lower in cytologically malignant PET-positive nodes when compared to benign PET-positive nodes. ADCb0-1000 and ADCb0-200-1000 were significantly lower (p = 0.018, 0.016, resp.) in PET-negative reference nodes than in PET-positive nodes. ADC was significantly higher in PET-negative reference nodes than in PET-positive nodes. The non-HPV-related subgroup showed significantly (p = 0.03) lower ADC values in cytologically malignant than in cytologically benign PET-positive nodes, which should help inform the node selection procedure for puncture.

Value of Assessing Peripheral Vascularization with Micro-Flow Imaging, Resistive Index and Absent Hilum Sign as Predictor for Malignancy in Lymph Nodes in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration cytology (USgFNAC) is commonly used for nodal staging in head and neck squamous cell cancer (HNSCC). Peripheral vascularity is a described feature for node metastasis. Micro-flow imaging (MFI) is a new sensitive technique to evaluate micro-vascularization. Our goal is to assess the additional value of MFI to detect malignancy in lymph nodes. A total of 102 patients with HNSCC were included prospectively. USgFNAC was performed with the Philips eL18-4 transducer. Cytological results served as a reference standard to evaluate the prediction of cytological malignancy depending on ultrasound features such as resistive index (RI), absence of fatty hilum sign, and peripheral vascularization. Results were obtained for all US examinations and for the subgroup of clinically node-negative neck (cN0). USgFNAC was performed in 211 nodes. Peripheral vascularization had a positive predictive value (PPV) of 83% (cN0: 50%) and the absence of a fatty hilum had a PPV of 82% (cN0 50%) The combination of peripheral vascularization and absent fatty hilum had a PPV of 94% (cN0: 72%). RI (threshold: 0.705) had a PPV of 61% (cN0: RI-threshold 0.615, PPV 20%), whereas the PPV of short axis diameter (threshold of 6.5mm) was 59% for all patients and 19% in cN0 necks (threshold of 4 mm). Peripheral vascularization assessed by MFI and absent hilum has a high predictive value for cytological malignancy in neck metastases. Next to size, both features should be used as additional selection criteria for USgFNAC.

SUVmax values at FDG PET-CT to predict malignancy in lymph nodes aspirated by real time image fused USgFNAC in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

18F-fluordeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography combined with computed tomography (PET-CT) and ultrasound guided fine-needle aspiration cytology (USgFNAC) are commonly used to detect nodal metastases in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). FDG PET-CT helps to guide selection of borderline suspicious nodes to aspirate using USgFNAC. Real time image fusion of FDG PET-CT with US is a new available technique and can improve this selection. The aim of this study was to determine optimal SUVmax values for USgFNAC node selection to improve USgFNAC sensitivity. 118 patients, with histopathological proven HNSCC or proven lymph nodes metastases of SCC of unknown primary, referred for staging of HNSCC with FDG PET-CT and ultrasound, were prospectively included. Additionally to standard USgFNAC of suspicious nodes fusion was performed to confirm that USgFNAC took place in FDG-positive nodes and to add Fused-USgFNAC in missed FDG-positive nodes. Fusion was performed on nodes with reported having metabolic activity. SUVmax values were measured in all Fused-USgFNAC nodes. The reference standard was cytology. In 118 patients USgFNAC was performed in 281 nodes. At fusion 22/281 (8%) nodes were FDG-negative. Out of 259 FDG-positive nodes 253 (98%) nodes were fused successfully. USgFNAC had conclusive results in 237/253 nodes (94%). In 126/237 nodes (53%) cytology proved to be tumor positive. Below SUVmax of 2.87 no fused FDG-positive nodes proved to be tumor positive at cytology. To improve sensitivity, only FDG-positive nodes with SUVmax values above 2.87 should be selected for USgFNAC. Image fusion can identify those nodes for USgFNAC selection.

Cost-Effectiveness of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Screening for Women With Extremely Dense Breast Tissue.

BACKGROUND: Extremely dense breast tissue is associated with increased breast cancer risk and limited sensitivity of mammography. The DENSE trial showed that additional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening in women with extremely dense breasts resulted in a substantial reduction in interval cancers. The cost-effectiveness of MRI screening for these women is unknown. METHODS: We used the MISCAN-breast microsimulation model to simulate several screening protocols containing mammography and/or MRI to estimate long-term effects and costs. The model was calibrated using results of the DENSE trial and adjusted to incorporate decreases in breast density with increasing age. Screening strategies varied in the number of MRIs and mammograms offered to women ages 50-75 years. Outcomes were numbers of breast cancers, life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), breast cancer deaths, and overdiagnosis. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated (3% discounting), with a willingness-to-pay threshold of €22 000. RESULTS: Calibration resulted in a conservative fit of the model regarding MRI detection. Both strategies of the DENSE trial were dominated (biennial mammography; biennial mammography plus MRI). MRI alone every 4 years was cost-effective with €15 620 per QALY. Screening every 3 years with MRI alone resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €37 181 per QALY. All strategies with mammography and/or a 2-year interval were dominated because other strategies resulted in more additional QALYs per additional euro. Alternating mammography and MRI every 2 years was close to the efficiency frontier. CONCLUSIONS: MRI screening is cost-effective for women with extremely dense breasts, when applied at a 4-year interval. For a willingness to pay more than €22 000 per QALY gained, MRI at a 3-year interval is cost-effective as well.

Importance of Spatial Resolution in Global Groundwater Modeling.

Global-scale gradient-based groundwater models are a new endeavor for hydrologists who wish to improve global hydrological models (GHMs). In particular, the integration of such groundwater models into GHMs improves the simulation of water flows between surface water and groundwater and of capillary rise and thus evapotranspiration. Currently, these models are not able to simulate water table depth adequately over the entire globe. Unsatisfactory model performance compared to well observations suggests that a higher spatial resolution is required to better represent the high spatial variability of land surface and groundwater elevations. In this study, we use New Zealand as a testbed and analyze the impacts of spatial resolution on the results of global groundwater models. Steady-state hydraulic heads simulated by two versions of the global groundwater model G3 M, at spatial resolutions of 5 arc-minutes (9 km) and 30 arc-seconds (900 m), are compared with observations from the Canterbury region. The output of three other groundwater models with different spatial resolutions is analyzed as well. Considering the spatial distribution of residuals, general patterns of unsatisfactory model performance remain at the higher resolutions, suggesting that an increase in model resolution alone does not fix problems such as the systematic overestimation of hydraulic head. We conclude that (1) a new understanding of how low-resolution global groundwater models can be evaluated is required, and (2) merely increasing the spatial resolution of global-scale groundwater models will not improve the simulation of the global freshwater system.

Actor modelling and its contribution to the development of integrative strategies for management of pharmaceuticals in drinking water.

Widespread presence of human pharmaceuticals in water resources across the globe is documented. While some, but certainly not enough, research on the occurrence, fate and effect of pharmaceuticals in water resources has been carried out, a holistic risk management strategy is missing. The transdisciplinary research project "start" aimed to develop an integrative strategy by the participation of experts representing key actors in the problem field "pharmaceuticals in drinking water". In this paper, we describe a novel modelling method, actor modelling with the semi-quantitative software DANA (Dynamic Actor Network Analysis), and its application in support of identifying an integrative risk management strategy. Based on the individual perceptions of different actors, the approach allows the identification of optimal strategies. Actors' perceptions were elicited by participatory model building and interviews, and were then modelled in perception graphs. Actor modelling indicated that an integrative strategy that targets environmentally-responsible prescription, therapy, and disposal of pharmaceuticals on one hand, and the development of environmentally-friendly pharmaceuticals on the other hand, will likely be most effective for reducing the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in drinking water (at least in Germany where the study was performed). However, unlike most other actors, the pharmaceutical industry itself does not perceive that the production of environmentally-friendly pharmaceuticals is an action that helps to achieve its goals, but contends that continued development of highly active pharmaceutical ingredients will help to reduce the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in the water cycle. Investment in advanced waste or drinking water treatment is opposed by both the wastewater treatment company and the drinking water supplier, and is not mentioned as appropriate by the other actors. According to our experience, actor modelling is a useful method to suggest effective and realisable integrative risk management strategies in complex problem fields that involve many societal actors.

Feasibility of radioguided occult lesion localization of clip-marked lymph nodes for tailored axillary treatment in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant systemic therapy.

BACKGROUND: Selective removal of initially tumor-positive axillary lymph nodes in breast cancer patients who underwent neoadjuvant systemic treatment (NST) improves the accuracy of nodal staging and provides the opportunity for more tailored axillary treatment. This study evaluated whether radioguided occult lesion localization (ROLL) of clip-marked lymph nodes is feasible in clinical practice. METHODS: Prior to NST, a clip marker was placed inside a proven tumor-positive lymph node in all breast cancer patients (cTis-4N1-3 M0). After NST, technetium-99m-labeled macroaggregated albumin was injected in the clip-marked lymph nodes. The next day, these ROLL-marked nodes were selectively removed at surgery to evaluate the pathological response of the axilla. RESULTS: Thirty-seven patients (38 axillae) underwent clip insertion. After NST, the clip was visible by ultrasound in 36 procedures (95%). In the other two patients, the ROLL-node injection was performed in a sonographically suspicious unclipped node (1), and near the clip under computed tomography guidance (1). Initial surgery successfully identified the ROLL-marked node with clip in 33 procedures (87%). Removed specimens in the other five procedures contained only the sonographically suspicious tumor-positive unclipped node (1), a node with signs of complete response but no clip (2), a clip without node (1), and tissue without node nor clip, and a second successful ROLL-node procedure was performed (1). Overall, 10 ROLL-marked nodes had no residual disease. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that the ROLL procedure to identify clip-marked lymph nodes is feasible. This facilitates selective removal at surgery and may tailor axillary treatment in patients treated with NST.

Transdisciplinary research in support of land and water management in China and Southeast Asia: evaluation of four research projects.

Transdisciplinary research (TDR) aims at identifying implementable solutions to difficult sustainability problems and at fostering social learning. It requires a well-managed collaboration among multidisciplinary scientists and multisectoral stakeholders. Performing TDR is challenging, particularly for foreign researchers working in countries with different institutional and socio-cultural conditions. There is a need to synthesize and share experience among researchers as well as practitioners regarding how TDR can be conducted under specific contexts. In this paper, we aim to evaluate and synthesize our unique experience in conducting TDR projects in Asia. We applied guiding principles of TDR to conduct a formative evaluation of four consortium projects on sustainable land and water management in China, the Philippines, and Vietnam. In all projects, local political conditions restricted the set of stakeholders that could be involved in the research processes. The set of involved stakeholders was also affected by the fact that stakeholders in most cases only participate if they belong to the personal network of the project leaders. Language barriers hampered effective communication between foreign researchers and stakeholders in all projects and thus knowledge integration. The TDR approach and its specific methods were adapted to respond to the specific cultural, social, and political conditions in the research areas, also with the aim to promote trust and interest of the stakeholders throughout the project. Additionally, various measures were implemented to promote collaboration among disciplinary scientists. Based on lessons learned, we provide specific recommendations for the design and implementation of TDR projects in particular in Asia.