Interventions targeting social determinants of mental disorders and the Sustainable Development Goals: a systematic review of reviews.

Globally, mental disorders account for almost 20% of disease burden and there is growing evidence that mental disorders are socially determined. Tackling the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs), which address social determinants of mental disorders, may be an effective way to reduce the global burden of mental disorders. We conducted a systematic review of reviews to examine the evidence base for interventions that map onto the UN SDGs and seek to improve mental health through targeting known social determinants of mental disorders. We included 101 reviews in the final review, covering demographic, economic, environmental events, neighborhood, and sociocultural domains. This review presents interventions with the strongest evidence base for the prevention of mental disorders and highlights synergies where addressing the UN SDGs can be beneficial for mental health.

Patterns and correlates of health service contact prior to serious offences by people with severe mental illness.

BACKGROUND: Contact with health services prior to offences committed by people with mental illness is an opportunity for intervention and prevention. This study examines the pattern and correlates of health service contact by people with severe mental illness before a serious offence. METHOD: Linkage of a cohort of 477 Forensic Patients found not guilty due to mental illness between 1990 and 2016, and statewide databases of contact with emergency departments, hospital admission and outpatient mental health services in the state of New South Wales, Australia. RESULTS: A total of 84% of the sample had contact with any health service and 76% had contact with an outpatient mental health service prior to the index offence. About two-thirds of the sample had contact with a mental health service in the year before the offence. Factors independently associated with the absence of contact at any point prior to the index offence were non-English-speaking background, being engaged in employment or study, and an absence of childhood abuse or neglect. Although nearly every Forensic Patient had a psychotic illness at the time of the index offence, psychosis was not diagnosed at the time of 61/106 (57.5%) emergency department presentations, in 54/174 (31.0%) hospital admissions and 149/222 (67.1%) attendances at outpatient mental health services prior to the offence. CONCLUSIONS: Most Forensic Patients had contact with health services prior to their offences but many were not identified as having a psychotic illness. Although the symptoms of psychosis may have emerged in the period between contact and the offence, the findings suggest that emerging or underlying psychosis were missed or attributed to other conditions.

Patterns of health service use for children with mental disorders in an Australian state population cohort.

OBJECTIVES: The rate of mental health services provided to children and young people is increasing worldwide, including in Australia. The aim of this study was to describe patterns of hospital and ambulatory mental health service use among a large population cohort of adolescents followed from birth, with consideration of variation by age, sex and diagnosis. METHODS: Characteristics of services provided for children with mental disorder diagnoses between birth and age 17.5 years were ascertained for a population cohort of 85,642 children (52.0% male) born between 2002 and 2005, from 'Admitted Patients', 'Emergency Department' and 'Mental Health Ambulatory' records provided by the New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory Health Departments. RESULTS: A total of 11,205 (~13.1%) children received at least one hospital or ambulatory health occasion of service for a mental health condition in the observation period. More than two-fifths of children with mental disorders had diagnoses spanning multiple categories of disorder over time. Ambulatory services were the most heavily used and the most common point of first contact. The rate of mental health service contact increased with age across all services, and for most categories of mental disorder. Girls were more likely to receive services for mental disorders than boys, but boys generally had an earlier age of first service contact. Finally, 3.1% of children presenting to mental health services experienced involuntary psychiatric inpatient admission. CONCLUSIONS: The extent of hospital and ambulatory-based mental healthcare service among children emphasises the need for primary prevention and early intervention.

Early life exposure to air pollution and psychotic-like experiences, emotional symptoms, and conduct problems in middle childhood.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution has been linked to a variety of childhood mental health problems, but results are inconsistent across studies and the effect of exposure timing is unclear. We examined the associations between air pollution exposure at two time-points in early development and psychotic-like experiences (PLEs), and emotional and conduct symptoms, assessed in middle childhood (mean age 11.5 years). METHODS: Participants were 19,932 children selected from the NSW Child Development Study (NSW-CDS) with available linked multi-agency data from birth, and self-reported psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) and psychopathology at age 11-12 years (middle childhood). We used binomial logistic regression to examine associations between exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) at two time-points (birth and middle childhood) and middle childhood PLEs, and emotional and conduct symptoms, with consideration of socioeconomic status and other potential confounding factors in adjusted models. RESULTS: In fully adjusted models, NO2 exposure in middle childhood was associated with concurrent PLEs (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.02-1.20). Similar associations with PLEs were found for middle childhood exposure to PM2.5 (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01-1.09). Neither NO2 nor PM2.5 exposure was associated with emotional symptoms or conduct problems in this study. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the need for a better understanding of potential mechanisms of action of NO2 in the brain during childhood.

The prevalence of mental illness in young people in custody over time: a comparison of three surveys in New South Wales.

Few studies have examined the prevalence of mental illness in young people over time within the same jurisdiction. In the current study, we compared data from three large surveys of youth in custody in New South Wales, conducted in 2003, 2009 and 2015. We examined rates of mental illness, self-harm and suicidal behaviours, substance use and childhood trauma and found little consistent change over time, though some fluctuations were observed regarding certain mental illnesses and substance use. We also descriptively compared findings with observed rates for the general population and found that young people in custody showed higher levels of all examined variables. In sum, these data suggest little improvement in the well-being of young people in custody in New South Wales over time. Better identification and treatment of these issues are vital if young people are to be prevented from becoming enmeshed in the criminal justice system.

Cumulative environmental risk in early life is associated with mental disorders in childhood.

BACKGROUND: No single environmental factor is a necessary or sufficient cause of mental disorder; multifactorial and transdiagnostic approaches are needed to understand the impact of the environment on the development of mental disorders across the life course. METHOD: Using linked multi-agency administrative data for 71 932 children from the New South Wales Child Developmental Study, using logistic regression, we examined associations between 16 environmental risk factors in early life (prenatal period to <6 years of age) and later diagnoses of mental disorder recorded in health service data (from age 6 to 13 years), both individually and summed as an environmental risk score (ERS). RESULTS: The ERS was associated with all types of mental disorder diagnoses in a dose-response fashion, such that 2.8% of children with no exposure to any of the environmental factors (ERS = 0), compared to 18.3% of children with an ERS of 8 or more indicating exposure to 8 or more environmental factors (ERS ⩾ 8), had been diagnosed with any type of mental disorder up to age 13-14 years. Thirteen of the 16 environmental factors measured (including prenatal factors, neighbourhood characteristics and more proximal experiences of trauma or neglect) were positively associated with at least one category of mental disorder. CONCLUSION: Exposure to cumulative environmental risk factors in early life is associated with an increased likelihood of presenting to health services in childhood for any kind of mental disorder. In many instances, these factors are preventable or capable of mitigation by appropriate public policy settings.

First Nations Peoples in the forensic mental health system in New South Wales: Characteristics and rates of criminal charges post-release.

BACKGROUND: It is well established that First Nations Peoples in Australia are overrepresented within the criminal justice system. However, First Nations Peoples appear to be comparatively underrepresented in the forensic mental health system, and little is known about their outcomes once released from secure care. OBJECTIVE: To compare the characteristics and rates of repeat criminal justice contact for a criminal charge of First Nations and non-First Nations forensic patients in New South Wales. METHODS: Data on the sample were extracted from the New South Wales Mental Health Review Tribunal paper and electronic files matched to the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Reoffending Database. Characteristics of First Nations and non-First Nations patients were compared using univariate logistic regression analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine predictors of post-release criminal charges. RESULTS: Key differences in the sociodemographic, clinical and forensic characteristics of First Nations compared with non-First Nations forensic patients were identified. The time to first criminal justice contact following release was significantly shorter for First Nations forensic patients (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The findings of this study confirm that First Nations forensic patients have distinct and complex needs that are apparent at entry to the forensic mental health system and that their poorer criminal justice contact rates following release from secure care indicate that these needs are not being adequately met either during treatment or once in the community. Responses to these study findings must consider the complex and continuing impact of colonisation on First Nations Peoples, as well as the need for solutions to be culturally safe.

The prevalence of self-reported mental illness among those imprisoned in New South Wales across three health surveys, from 2001 to 2015.

OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of mental illness among those in prison is much higher than in the community; however, very few studies have examined whether rates have changed over time, in line with increasing self-reported rates in the community. METHODS: This study compares the prevalence of self-reported mental illness, self-harm and suicidal thoughts/behaviours, and drug and alcohol use across three waves (2001, 2009 and 2015) of health surveys involving men and women in New South Wales prisons and compared these rates with published community-level findings. RESULTS: The prevalence of those reporting any mental health diagnosis increased significantly across the three surveys, even after adjustment for socio-demographic and criminal justice variables that also changed over time. Individuals surveyed in 2015 were more likely to report a mental health diagnosis than those surveyed in 2001 (adjusted odds ratio = 2.66, 95% confidence interval = [2.16, 3.27]). The prevalence of self-harm and suicidal thoughts and behaviours remained stable across the three surveys, while self-reported regular drug use decreased over the period. Women experienced a far greater burden of mental illness than men across all three surveys and experienced more growth in the prevalence of most psychiatric disorders. CONCLUSION: These findings have important implications for public and prison health systems given the poor social, health and criminal justice outcomes of those imprisoned with mental illness, both in custody and post-release.

Early childhood developmental vulnerability associated with parental mental disorder comorbidity.

OBJECTIVES: Parental mental health has a profound influence on the mental health and well-being of their offspring. With comorbid mental disorders generally the rule rather than the exception, increased knowledge of the impact of parental mental disorder comorbidity on early child development may facilitate improved targeting and delivery of early intervention for vulnerable offspring. METHODS: Participants were 66,154 children and their parents in the New South Wales Child Development Study - a prospective, longitudinal, record-linkage study of a population cohort of children born in NSW between 2002 and 2004. Early childhood developmental vulnerability was assessed at age ~5 years using the Australian Early Development Census, and information on parental mental disorders was obtained from administrative health records. Binomial and multinomial logistic regression were used to assess the relationship between parental mental disorders and early childhood developmental vulnerability on emotional and behavioural domains, as well as membership of latent developmental risk classes reflecting particular classes of vulnerability. RESULTS: Multiple diagnoses of mental disorders in mothers and fathers were associated with an increased likelihood of early childhood emotional and behavioural developmental vulnerability in offspring, relative to parents without mental disorder. The likelihood of offspring vulnerability increased with the number of parental comorbidities, particularly maternal comorbidities. CONCLUSION: Early childhood developmental vulnerability was strongly associated with parental mental ill-health, with the strength of associations increasing in line with a greater number of mental disorder diagnoses among mothers and fathers. New and expectant parents diagnosed with multiple mental disorders should be prioritised for intervention, including attention to the developmental well-being of their offspring.

Self-harm and suicidal ideation among young people is more often recorded by child protection than health services in an Australian population cohort.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated patterns of service contact for self-harm and suicidal ideation recorded by a range of human service agencies - including health, police and child protection - with specific focus on overlap and sequences of contacts, age of first contact and demographic and intergenerational characteristics associated with different service responses to self-harm. METHODS: Participants were 91,597 adolescents for whom multi-agency linked data were available in a longitudinal study of a population cohort in New South Wales, Australia. Self-harm and suicide-related incidents from birth to 18 years of age were derived from emergency department, inpatient hospital admission, mental health ambulatory, child protection and police administrative records. Descriptive statistics and binomial logistic regression were used to examine patterns of service contacts. RESULTS: Child protection services recorded the largest proportion of youth with reported self-harm and suicidal ideation, in which the age of first contact for self-harm was younger relative to other incidents of self-harm recorded by other agencies. Nearly 40% of youth with a health service contact for self-harm also had contact with child protection and/or police services for self-harm. Girls were more likely to access health services for self-harm than boys, but not child protection or police services. CONCLUSION: Suicide prevention is not solely the responsibility of health services; police and child protection services also respond to a significant proportion of self-harm and suicide-related incidents. High rates of overlap among different services responding to self-harm suggest the need for cross-agency strategies to prevent suicide in young people.

Hospital service utilisation of people previously hospitalised with different subtypes of psychotic disorder: A record linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: Little research has examined the physical and mental comorbidities, and health service use patterns, of people diagnosed with psychotic disorder subtypes other than schizophrenia spectrum disorders. This study aims to examine the physical and mental comorbidities, and subsequent hospital service use patterns, of individuals previously hospitalised with various psychotic disorder subtypes using linked health service data. METHODS: We included individuals hospitalised with a psychotic disorder in New South Wales, Australia, between 1 July 2002 and 31 December 2014 (N = 63,110). We examined the demographic profile of the cohort and rates of subsequent acute hospital care and ambulatory mental health service use. We compared the rates of subsequent hospital admissions, emergency department presentations and ambulatory mental health treatment days of people hospitalised with different psychotic disorder subtypes to people hospitalised with schizophrenia spectrum disorders using Poisson regression. RESULTS: People most recently hospitalised with mood/affective disorders and psychotic symptoms had a higher rate of subsequent hospital admissions than those most recently hospitalised with schizophrenia spectrum and delusional disorders (adjusted incident rate ratio = 1.06; 95% confidence interval = [1.02, 1.10]), while people most recently hospitalised with drug-induced and other organic (adjusted incident rate ratio = 1.19; 95% confidence interval = [1.12, 1.27]) and acute psychotic disorders (adjusted incident rate ratio = 1.10; 95% confidence interval = [1.03, 1.18]) had more subsequent emergency department presentations than those most recently hospitalised with schizophrenia spectrum and delusional disorders. All three groups had fewer subsequent mental health ambulatory days than those most recently hospitalised with schizophrenia spectrum and delusional disorders (adjusted incident rate ratios = 0.85-0.91). CONCLUSION: The health profiles and subsequent hospital service use patterns of people previously hospitalised with different psychotic disorder subtypes are heterogeneous, and research is needed to develop targeted health policies to meet their specific health needs.

Parental mental disorders and offspring schizotypy in middle childhood: an intergenerational record linkage study.

PURPOSE: To investigate relationships between distinct schizotypy risk profiles in childhood and the full spectrum of parental mental disorders. METHODS: Participants were 22,137 children drawn from the New South Wales Child Development Study, for whom profiles of risk for schizophrenia-spectrum disorders in middle childhood (age ~ 11 years) were derived in a previous study. A series of multinomial logistic regression analyses examined the likelihood of child membership in one of three schizotypy profiles (true schizotypy, introverted schizotypy, and affective schizotypy) relative to the children showing no risk, according to maternal and paternal diagnoses of seven types of mental disorders. RESULTS: All types of parental mental disorders were associated with membership in all childhood schizotypy profiles. Children in the true schizotypy group were more than twice as likely as children in the no risk group to have a parent with any type of mental disorder (unadjusted odds ratio [OR] = 2.27, 95% confidence intervals [CI] = 2.01-2.56); those in the affective (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.42-1.67) and introverted schizotypy profiles (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.29-1.51) were also more likely to have been exposed to any parental mental disorder, relative to children showing no risk. CONCLUSION: Childhood schizotypy risk profiles appear not to be related specifically to familial liability for schizophrenia-spectrum disorders; this is consistent with a model where liability for psychopathology is largely general rather than specific to particular diagnostic categories.

Pathways from developmental vulnerabilities in early childhood to schizotypy in middle childhood.

OBJECTIVES: Childhood disturbances in social, emotional, language, motor and cognitive functioning, and schizotypy have each been implicated as precursors of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. We investigated whether relationships between early childhood developmental vulnerabilities and childhood schizotypy are mediated by educational underachievement in middle childhood. METHODS: Participants were members of a large Australian (n = 19,216) population cohort followed longitudinally. Path analyses were used to model relationships between developmental vulnerabilities at age ~5 years, educational underachievement from ages ~8 to 10 years and three distinct profiles of schizotypy at age ~11 years (true, introverted and affective schizotypy). RESULTS: Early childhood developmental vulnerabilities on five broad domains (related to physical, emotional, social, cognitive and communication development) were associated with schizotypy profiles in middle childhood. Educational underachievement in middle childhood was associated with all schizotypy profiles, but most strongly with the true schizotypy profile (OR = 3.92, 95% CI = 3.12, 4.91). The relationships between schizotypy profiles and early childhood developmental vulnerabilities in 'language and cognitive skills (school-based)' and 'communication skills and general knowledge' domains were fully mediated by educational underachievement in middle childhood, and the relationships with early childhood 'physical health and well-being' and 'emotional maturity' domains were partially mediated. CONCLUSION: Developmental continuity from early childhood developmental vulnerabilities to schizotypy in middle childhood is mediated by educational underachievement in middle childhood. While some domains of early developmental functioning showed differential relationships with distinct schizotypy profiles, these findings support a developmental pathway to schizotypy in which cognitive vulnerability operates from early childhood through to middle childhood.

Cumulative comorbidity between neurodevelopmental, internalising, and externalising disorders in childhood: a network approach.

Cumulative comorbidity of mental disorders is common, but the extent and patterns of comorbid psychopathology in childhood are not well established. The current study aimed to elucidate the emergent patterns of cumulative mental disorder comorbidity in children using network analysis of diagnoses recorded between birth and age 12 years. Participants were 90,269 children (mean age 12.7 years; 51.8% male) within the New South Wales Child Development Study (NSW-CDS)-a longitudinal record-linkage cohort study of Australian children born in NSW between 2002 and 2005. Binary indicators for eight types of mental disorder were derived from administrative health records. Patterns of conditional association between mental disorders were assessed utilising network analysis. Of 90,269 children, 2268 (2.5%) had at least one mental disorder by age 12 years; of the 2268 children who had at least one mental disorder by age 12 years, 461 (20.3%) were diagnosed with two or more different disorders out of the eight disorder types included in analyses. All disorders were either directly or indirectly interconnected, with childhood affective and emotional disorders and developmental disorders being most central to the network overall. Mental disorder nodes aggregated weakly (modularity = 0.185) into two communities, representative of internalising and externalising disorders, and neurodevelopmental and sleep disorders. Considerable sex differences in the structure of the mental disorder comorbidity networks were also observed. Developmental and childhood affective and emotional disorders appear to be key to mental disorder comorbidity in childhood, potentially reflecting that these disorders share symptoms in common with many other disorders.

Conditions of Birth and Early Childhood Developmental Risk for Mental Disorders.

Distinct classes of children in the general population are at increased odds of later mental illness and other adverse outcomes according to patterns of early childhood developmental vulnerability. If certain risk factors known at the time of birth are reliably associated with membership in early childhood risk classes, then preventative interventions could be initiated in the earliest years of life. Associations between 14 factors known at the time of birth and membership in early childhood risk classes were examined in 66,464 children. Risk class membership was associated with maternal mental illness, parental criminal charges and being male; distinct patterns of association were shown for some conditions, for example, prenatal child protection notification was uniquely associated with misconduct risk'. These findings suggest that risk factors known at the time of birth could assist in very early detection of children who may benefit from early intervention in the first 2000 days.

Relationships between parental mental illness and/or offending and offspring contact with the police in childhood: Findings from a longitudinal record-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Parental offending and mental illness are associated with an increased risk of criminal behaviour in offspring during adolescence and adulthood, but the impact of such problems on younger children, including children's experiences of victimisation, is less well known. AIM: To investigate the associations between parental offending and mental illness recorded prior to their offspring's age of 5 years and their offspring's contact with police as a 'person of interest', 'victim' or 'witness' between ages 5 and 13 years. METHODS: Our sample consisted of 72,771 children and their parents drawn from the New South Wales Child Development Study, an Australian longitudinal population-based record linkage study. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine associations between parental factors and offspring's police contact. Separate models examined the relationships between maternal or paternal offending and mental illness, as well as the combination among either or both parents, as the independent variables, and their child's police contact as the dependent variable. RESULTS: Parental offending and mental illness were each individually associated with indices of police contact among offspring. Stronger associations were observed when both offending and mental illness were present together (in either parent, or when one parent had both exposures). Stronger associations were evident for mothers with both factors across all offspring police contact types, relative to fathers with both factors, in fully adjusted models; that is, children of mothers with both factors were over four times as likely to have contact with police as a 'person of interest' (OR = 4.29; 95% CI = 3.75-4.92) and over three times as likely to have contact as a victim (OR = 3.35; 95% CI = 3.01-3.74) or witness (OR = 3.58; 95% CI = 3.03-4.24), than children whose mothers had no history of offending or mental illness. CONCLUSIONS: Children with a parental history of offending and mental illness in early life are at an increased likelihood of early police contact as young as 5-13 years of age; it is vital that this is taken as a signal to help them and their affected families according to need.

Psychiatric rehabilitation in secure forensic settings in NSW: Measuring outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify outcomes for patients of forensic psychiatric rehabilitation in NSW. METHODS: Data on 245 conditionally released forensic patients was extracted from the Mental Health Review Tribunal (MHRT) files and matched to several state-wide datasets. Descriptive statistics were generated to establish the cohort characteristics, rates of reoffending and social and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: At conditional release, social circumstances for the majority of patients were improved. Clinically, the cohort was more stable, though many did not remain stable over time. Only one-fifth of the sample received a further criminal charge. CONCLUSION: Preliminary evidence suggests that forensic rehabilitation services in NSW are effective.

The full spectrum of clinical stages of psychosis among mentally ill prisoners in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

Research on the association between psychosis and criminal offending has typically focused on violent offenders with chronic psychotic illness. This stages of psychosis in prison (SOPP) study used a clinical staging approach to identify adult men referred to prison mental health services who had an at-risk mental state (ARMS), first episode of psychosis (FEP) or an established psychotic illness. Of the 105 participants included, 6% were determined to have FEP, 6% met ARMS criteria and the remainder had an established psychotic illness. Compared to a prison control sample, individuals on the psychosis spectrum were found to have higher levels of social disadvantage and other co-occurring mental health and substance use problems but were not more likely to have committed a violent offence. These findings support the notion that risk of criminal justice contact and complex illness burden exist across the full spectrum of psychotic illness.

Mental illness and suicide among physicians.

The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened interest in how physician mental health can be protected and optimised, but uncertainty and misinformation remain about some key issues. In this Review, we discuss the current literature, which shows that despite what might be inferred during training, physicians are not immune to mental illness, with between a quarter and a third reporting increased symptoms of mental ill health. Physicians, particularly female physicians, are at an increased risk of suicide. An emerging consensus exists that some aspects of physician training, working conditions, and organisational support are unacceptable. Changes in medical training and health systems, and the additional strain of working through a pandemic, might have amplified these problems. A new evidence-informed framework for how individual and organisational interventions can be used in an integrated manner in medical schools, in health-care settings, and by professional colleagues is proposed. New initiatives are required at each of these levels, with an urgent need for organisational-level interventions, to better protect the mental health and wellbeing of physicians.

Forecasting childhood adversities from conditions of birth.

BACKGROUND: Childbirth presents an optimal time for identifying high-risk families to commence intervention that could avert various childhood health and social adversities. OBJECTIVE: We sought to establish the minimum set of exposures required to accurately predict a range of adverse childhood outcomes up to the age of 13 years, from a set of 14 individual and familial risk exposures evident at the time of birth. METHODS: Participants were 72,059 Australian children and their parents drawn from a multi-register population cohort study (data spanning 1994-2018). Risk exposures included male sex, young mother (aged ≤21 years), no (or late first; >16 weeks) antenatal visit, maternal smoking during pregnancy, small for gestational age, preterm birth, pregnancy complications (any of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, gestational diabetes or pre-eclampsia), >2 previous pregnancies of ≥20 weeks, socio-economic disadvantage, prenatal child protection notification, and maternal or paternal mental disorder or criminal offending history. Individual outcomes included early childhood developmental vulnerability (age 5 years), sustained educational underachievement (age 8 and 10 years), mental disorder diagnoses, substantiated childhood maltreatment, and contact with the police as a victim or person-of-interest up to age 13-14 years. RESULTS: Risk exposures at birth predicted individual childhood outcomes with fair to excellent accuracy: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranged between 0.60 (95% CI 0.58, 0.62) for childhood mental disorder and 0.83 (95% CI 0.82, 0.85) for substantiated child maltreatment. The presence of five or more exposures characterised 12-25% of children with one or more adverse outcomes and showed high predictive certainty for models predicting multiple outcomes, which were apparent in 9% of the population. CONCLUSIONS: Up to a quarter of the neonatal population at risk of multiple adverse outcomes can be detected at birth, with implications for population health screening. However, cautious implementation of these models is warranted, given their relatively low positive predictive values.