A prospective study on glucagon responses to oral glucose and mixed meal and 7-year change in fasting glucose.

INTRODUCTION: The role of insufficient glucagon suppression after an oral load in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus is unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the association between glucagon responses at baseline and fasting glucose levels 7 years later. METHODS: Data of the Hoorn Meal Study were used, an observational cohort study among 121 persons without diabetes with a mean age of 61.1 ± 6.7 years and 50% being female. The glucagon response to an oral glucose tolerance test and mixed meal test was expressed as early and late incremental area under the curve. The association with change in fasting glucose levels at follow-up was assessed by linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The early glucagon response following the mixed meal test was associated with an increase in fasting glucose levels of 0.18 mmol/L (95%-CI: 0.04-0.31, P = 0.01), per unit increase in the incremental area under the curve of glucagon, adjusted for confounders. No significant associations were observed for the late response after the mixed meal test or oral glucose tolerance test. CONCLUSIONS: Within a population without diabetes, relative lack of glucagon suppression early after a meal was associated with increased glucose levels over time, suggesting a role of insufficient glucagon suppression in the deterioration of glycaemic control.

Size and shape of the associations of glucose, HbA1c, insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes: the Hoorn Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Glycaemic markers and fasting insulin are frequently measured outcomes of intervention studies. To extrapolate accurately the impact of interventions on the risk of diabetes incidence, we investigated the size and shape of the associations of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h post-load glucose (2hPG), HbA1c, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: The study population included 1349 participants aged 50-75 years without diabetes at baseline (1989) from a population-based cohort in Hoorn, the Netherlands. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined by the WHO 2011 criteria or known diabetes at follow-up. Logistic regression models were used to determine the associations of the glycaemic markers, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes. Restricted cubic spline logistic regressions were conducted to investigate the shape of the associations. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up duration of 6.4 (SD 0.5) years, 152 participants developed diabetes (11.3%); the majority were screen detected by high FPG. In multivariate adjusted models, ORs (95% CI) for incident type 2 diabetes for the highest quintile in comparison with the lowest quintile were 9.0 (4.4, 18.5) for FPG, 6.1 (2.9, 12.7) for 2hPG, 3.8 (2.0, 7.2) for HbA1c, 1.9 (0.9, 3.6) for fasting insulin and 2.8 (1.4, 5.6) for HOMA-IR. The associations of FPG and HbA1c with incident diabetes were non-linear, rising more steeply at higher values. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: FPG was most strongly associated with incident diabetes, followed by 2hPG, HbA1c, HOMA-IR and fasting insulin. The strong association with FPG is probably because FPG is the most frequent marker for diabetes diagnosis. Non-linearity of associations between glycaemic markers and incident type 2 diabetes should be taken into account when estimating future risk of type 2 diabetes based on glycaemic markers.

Association of changes in inflammation with variation in glycaemia, insulin resistance and secretion based on the KORA study.

AIMS: Subclinical systemic inflammation may contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes, but its association with early progression of glycaemic deterioration in persons without diabetes has not been fully investigated. Our primary aim was to assess longitudinal associations of changes in pro-inflammatory (leukocytes, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP)) and anti-inflammatory (adiponectin) markers with changes in markers that assessed glycaemia, insulin resistance, and secretion (HbA1c , HOMA-IR, and HOMA-ß). Furthermore, we aimed to directly compare longitudinal with cross-sectional associations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study includes 819 initially nondiabetic individuals with repeated measurements from the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) S4/F4 cohort study (median follow-up: 7.1 years). Longitudinal and cross-sectional associations were simultaneously examined using linear mixed growth models. Changes in markers of inflammation were used as independent and changes in markers of glycaemia/insulin resistance/insulin secretion as dependent variables. Models were adjusted for age, sex, major lifestyle and metabolic risk factors for diabetes using time-varying variables in the final model. RESULTS: Changes of leukocyte count were positively associated with changes in HbA1c and HOMA-ß while changes in adiponectin were inversely associated with changes in HbA1c . All examined cross-sectional associations were statistically significant; they were generally stronger and mostly directionally consistent to the longitudinal association estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse changes in low-grade systemic inflammation go along with glycaemic deterioration and increased insulin secretion independently of changes in other risk factors, suggesting that low-grade inflammation may contribute to the development of hyperglycaemia and a compensatory increase in insulin secretion.

External Validation of a Tool Predicting 7-Year Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease, Type 2 Diabetes or Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), share many modifiable risk factors and can be prevented using combined prevention programs. Valid risk prediction tools are needed to accurately identify individuals at risk. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate a previously developed non-invasive risk prediction tool for predicting the combined 7-year-risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases. DESIGN: The previously developed tool is stratified for sex and contains the predictors age, BMI, waist circumference, use of antihypertensives, smoking, family history of myocardial infarction/stroke, and family history of diabetes. This tool was externally validated, evaluating model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-assessing discrimination-and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (HL) statistics-assessing calibration. The intercept was recalibrated to improve calibration performance. PARTICIPANTS: The risk prediction tool was validated in 3544 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab). KEY RESULTS: Discrimination was acceptable, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.81) in men and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) in women. Calibration was poor (HL statistic: p < 0.001), but improved considerably after intercept recalibration. Examination of individual outcomes showed that in men, AUC was highest for CKD (0.85 [95% CI 0.78-0.91]) and lowest for T2D (0.69 [95% CI 0.65-0.74]). In women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.88 [95% CI 0.83-0.94)]) and lowest for T2D (0.71 [95% CI 0.66-0.75]). CONCLUSIONS: Validation of our previously developed tool showed robust discriminative performance across populations. Model recalibration is recommended to account for different disease rates. Our risk prediction tool can be useful in large-scale prevention programs for identifying those in need of further risk profiling because of their increased risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases.

Circulating Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids as Biomarkers for Dietary Intake across Subgroups: The CODAM and Hoorn Studies.

AIMS: To evaluate whether participant characteristics and way of expressing circulating fatty acids (FA) influence the strengths of associations between self-reported intake and circulating levels of linoleic acid (LA), alpha-linolenic acid (ALA), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses were performed in pooled data from the CODAM (n = 469) and Hoorn (n = 702) studies. Circulating FA were measured by gas liquid chromatography and expressed as proportions (% of total FA) and concentrations (µg/mL). Dietary intakes were calculated from a validated food frequency questionnaire. Effects of participant characteristics on associations between dietary and circulating FA were calculated using interaction analyses. RESULTS: Standardized regression coefficients between dietary FA and proportions of circulating FA (% of total FA) were LA ß = 0.28, ALA ß = 0.13, EPA ß = 0.34, and DHA ß = 0.45. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and presence of CVD influenced associations for LA; gender influenced LA, EPA, and DHA; alcohol intake influenced LA and DHA; and glucose tolerance status influenced ALA (p values interaction <0.05). Coefficients for circulating FA as concentrations were LA ß = 0.19, ALA ß = 0.10, EPA ß = 0.31, and DHA ß = 0.41. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that characteristics such as BMI, alcohol intake, and expressing circulating FA as proportions or concentrations, influence associations between dietary and circulating FA.

Renal function markers and insulin sensitivity after 3 years in a healthy cohort, the EGIR-RISC study.

BACKGROUND: People with chronic renal disease are insulin resistant. We hypothesized that in a healthy population, baseline renal function is associated with insulin sensitivity three years later. METHODS: We studied 405 men and 528 women from the European Group for the study of Insulin Resistance - Relationship between Insulin Sensitivity and Cardiovascular disease cohort. Renal function was characterized by the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and by the urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR). At baseline only, insulin sensitivity was quantified using a hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp; at baseline and three years, we used surrogate measures: the Matsuda insulin sensitivity index (ISI), the HOmeostasis Model Assessment of Insulin Sensitivity (HOMA-IS). Associations between renal function and insulin sensitivity were studied cross-sectionally and longitudinally. RESULTS: In men at baseline, no associations were seen with eGFR, but there was some evidence of a positive association with UACR. In women, all insulin sensitivity indices showed the same negative trend across eGFR classes, albeit not always statistically significant; for UACR, women with values above the limit of detection, had higher clamp measured insulin sensitivity than other women. After three years, in men only, ISI and HOMA-IS showed a U-shaped relation with baseline eGFR; women with eGFR> 105 ml/min/1.73m2 had a significantly higher insulin sensitivity than the reference group (eGFR: 90-105 ml/min/1.73m2). For both men and women, year-3 insulin sensitivity was higher in those with higher baseline UACR. All associations were attenuated after adjusting on significant covariates. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence to support our hypothesis that markers of poorer renal function are associated with declining insulin sensitivity in our healthy population.

Sustained influence of metformin therapy on circulating glucagon-like peptide-1 levels in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: To investigate, in the Carotid Atherosclerosis: Metformin for Insulin Resistance (CAMERA) trial (NCT00723307), whether the influence of metformin on the glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 axis in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is sustained and related to changes in glycaemia or weight, and to investigate basal and post-meal GLP-1 levels in patients with T2DM in the cross-sectional Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (DIRECT) study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: CAMERA was a double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial of metformin in 173 participants without diabetes. Using 6-monthly fasted total GLP-1 levels over 18 months, we evaluated metformin's effect on total GLP-1 with repeated-measures analysis and analysis of covariance. In the DIRECT study, we examined active and total fasting and 60-minute post-meal GLP-1 levels in 775 people recently diagnosed with T2DM treated with metformin or diet, using Student's t-tests and linear regression. RESULTS: In CAMERA, metformin increased total GLP-1 at 6 (+20.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.7-39.0), 12 (+26.7%, 95% CI 10.3-45.6) and 18 months (+18.7%, 95% CI 3.8-35.7), an overall increase of 23.4% (95% CI 11.2-36.9; P < .0001) vs placebo. Adjustment for changes in glycaemia and adiposity, individually or combined, did not attenuate this effect. In the DIRECT study, metformin was associated with higher fasting active (39.1%, 95% CI 21.3-56.4) and total GLP-1 (14.1%, 95% CI 1.2-25.9) but not post-meal incremental GLP-1. These changes were independent of potential confounders including age, sex, adiposity and glycated haemoglobin. CONCLUSIONS: In people without diabetes, metformin increases total GLP-1 in a sustained manner and independently of changes in weight or glycaemia. Metformin-treated patients with T2DM also have higher fasted GLP-1 levels, independently of weight and glycaemia.

Circulating linoleic acid and alpha-linolenic acid and glucose metabolism: the Hoorn Study.

PURPOSE: Data on the relation between linoleic acid (LA) and alpha-linolenic acid (ALA) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk are scarce and inconsistent. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of serum LA and ALA with fasting and 2 h post-load plasma glucose and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). METHOD: This study included 667 participants from third examination (2000) of the population-based Hoorn study in which individuals with glucose intolerance were overrepresented. Fatty acid profiles in serum total lipids were measured at baseline, in 2000. Diabetes risk markers were measured at baseline and follow-up in 2008. Linear regression models were used in cross-sectional and prospective analyses. RESULTS: In cross-sectional analyses (n = 667), serum LA was inversely associated with plasma glucose, both in fasting conditions (B = -0.024 [-0.045, -0.002]) and 2 h after glucose tolerance test (B = -0.099 [-0.158, -0.039]), but not with HbA1c (B = 0.000 [-0.014, 0.013]), after adjustment for relevant factors. In prospective analyses (n = 257), serum LA was not associated with fasting (B = 0.003 [-0.019, 0.025]) or post-load glucose (B = -0.026 [-0.100, 0.049]). Furthermore, no significant associations were found between serum ALA and glucose metabolism in cross-sectional or prospective analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, serum LA was inversely associated with fasting and post-load glucose in cross-sectional, but not in prospective analyses. Further studies are needed to elucidate the exact role of serum LA and ALA levels and dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids in glucose metabolism.

Protein-Bound Plasma Nε-(Carboxymethyl)lysine Is Inversely Associated With Central Obesity and Inflammation and Significantly Explain a Part of the Central Obesity-Related Increase in Inflammation: The Hoorn and CODAM Studies.

OBJECTIVE: Adipose tissue inflammation contributes to the development of complications, such as insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. We previously reported that plasma levels of N(ε)-(carboxymethyl)lysine (CML) were decreased in obese subjects resulting from CML accumulation in adipose tissue and that this CML accumulation plays an important role in adipose tissue inflammation. The objective of this study is to investigate associations between obesity (body mass index, waist circumference, and trunk fat mass), plasma CML (as an inversely correlated marker of CML accumulation in adipose tissue), and low-grade inflammation (LGI) in a large sample of individuals whose weight status ranged from normal to morbid obesity. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We studied 1270 individuals of the Cohort on Diabetes and Atherosclerosis Maastricht Study and Hoorn Study, in whom protein-bound CML levels were measured by UPLC-Tandem MS (ultra performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry), and 6 inflammatory markers were measured with multiarrays. These inflammatory markers were compiled into an LGI score. Multiple linear regression, adjusted for covariates, showed that (1) waist circumference was inversely associated with protein-bound CML plasma levels (standardized regression coefficient [ß]=-0.357 [95% confidence interval: -0.414; -0.301]); (2) protein-bound CML was inversely associated with LGI score (ß=-0.073 [-0.130;-0.015]); and (3) the association between waist circumference and LGI (ß=0.262 [0.203;0.321]) was attenuated after adjustment for protein-bound CML plasma levels and other potential mediators (to ß=0.202 [0.138;0.266]), with CML explaining the greatest portion of the attenuation (≈12%). Further analysis with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry measures of body composition confirmed a strong inverse association of fat mass preferentially accumulated in the trunk with protein-bound CML plasma levels, significantly explaining ≈21% of the trunk fat-LGI association. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity, in particular central obesity, is characterized by greater levels of LGI but by lower levels of circulating CML; the latter significantly explaining a portion of the positive association between central obesity and inflammation.

C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and cardiovascular disease prediction.

BACKGROUND: There is debate about the value of assessing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other biomarkers of inflammation for the prediction of first cardiovascular events. METHODS: We analyzed data from 52 prospective studies that included 246,669 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease to investigate the value of adding CRP or fibrinogen levels to conventional risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. We calculated measures of discrimination and reclassification during follow-up and modeled the clinical implications of initiation of statin therapy after the assessment of CRP or fibrinogen. RESULTS: The addition of information on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a prognostic model for cardiovascular disease that included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level increased the C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, by 0.0050. The further addition to this model of information on CRP or fibrinogen increased the C-index by 0.0039 and 0.0027, respectively (P<0.001), and yielded a net reclassification improvement of 1.52% and 0.83%, respectively, for the predicted 10-year risk categories of "low" (<10%), "intermediate" (10% to <20%), and "high" (≥20%) (P<0.02 for both comparisons). We estimated that among 100,000 adults 40 years of age or older, 15,025 persons would initially be classified as being at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event if conventional risk factors alone were used to calculate risk. Assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥20% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), additional targeted assessment of CRP or fibrinogen levels in the 13,199 remaining participants at intermediate risk could help prevent approximately 30 additional cardiovascular events over the course of 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: In a study of people without known cardiovascular disease, we estimated that under current treatment guidelines, assessment of the CRP or fibrinogen level in people at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event could help prevent one additional event over a period of 10 years for every 400 to 500 people screened. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).

Comparable Dietary Patterns Describe Dietary Behavior across Ethnic Groups in the Netherlands, but Different Elements in the Diet Are Associated with Glycated Hemoglobin and Fasting Glucose Concentrations.

BACKGROUND: Ethnic minority populations in Western societies suffer from a disproportionate burden of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Insight into the role of dietary patterns in T2D may assist public health nutrition efforts in addressing these health disparities. OBJECTIVE: We explored the association between dietary patterns and biomarkers of T2D in 5 ethnic groups living in Amsterdam, Netherlands. METHODS: A total of 3776 men and women aged 18-70 y of Dutch, South Asian Surinamese, African-Surinamese, Turkish, and Moroccan origin from the HELIUS (HEalthy LIfe in an Urban Setting) study were included. Diet was assessed by using a food-frequency questionnaire, and dietary patterns were derived separately per ethnic group. First, food group-based dietary patterns were derived by using principal components analysis and the association with glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and plasma fasting glucose was assessed by using multivariable linear regression. Second, biomarker-driven dietary patterns based on HbA1c and fasting glucose concentrations were derived by applying reduced rank regression. RESULTS: Two comparable food group-based dietary patterns were identified in each ethnic group: a "meat and snack" pattern and a "vegetable" pattern. The meat-and-snack pattern derived within the Dutch origin population was significantly associated with HbA1c (ß = 0.09; 95% CI: 0.00, 0.19) and fasting glucose (ß = 0.18; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.26) concentrations. A biomarker-derived pattern characterized by red and processed meat was observed among Dutch-origin participants; however, among ethnic minority groups, this pattern was characterized by other foods including ethnicity-specific foods (e.g., roti, couscous). CONCLUSIONS: Although similar food group dietary patterns were derived within 5 ethnic groups, the association of the meat-and-snack pattern with fasting glucose concentrations differed by ethnicity. Taken together with the finding of ethnic differences in biomarker-driven dietary patterns, our results imply that addressing T2D risk in multiethnic populations requires ethnicity-specific approaches.

Stressful life events and incident metabolic syndrome: the Hoorn study.

Stressful life events are associated with the metabolic syndrome in cross-sectional studies, but prospective studies addressing this issue are rare and limited. We therefore evaluated whether the number of stressful life events is associated with incident metabolic syndrome. We assessed the association between the number of stressful life events experienced in the 5 years up until baseline and incident metabolic syndrome after 6.5 years at follow-up in the Hoorn study, a middle-aged and elderly population-based cohort. Participants with prevalent metabolic syndrome at baseline were excluded. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the Adult Treatment Panel III, including fasting plasma glucose levels, HDL-C levels, triglyceride levels, waist circumference and hypertension. We included 1099 participants (47% male; age 60 ± 7 years). During 6.5 years of follow-up, 238 participants (22%) developed the metabolic syndrome. Logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, education level and follow-up duration showed a positive association between the number of stressful life events at baseline and incident metabolic syndrome [OR 1.13 (1.01-1.27) per event, p = 0.049]. In addition, a Poisson model showed a significant positive association between the number of stressful life events at baseline and the number of metabolic syndrome factors at follow-up [OR 1.05 (1.01-1.11) per event, p = 0.018]. Finally, we observed a significant association between the number of stressful life events at baseline and waist circumference at follow-up [adjusted for confounders ß 0.86 (0.39-1.34) cm per event, p < 0.001]. Overall, we concluded that persons who reported more stressful life events at baseline had a significantly increased risk for developing metabolic syndrome during 6.5 years of follow-up, in a middle-aged and elderly population-based cohort.

Prevalence and Correlates of Sexual Dysfunction in Men and Women With Type 2 Diabetes.

This study aimed to assess the prevalence and correlates of sexual dysfunction in a sample of Dutch men and women with type 2 diabetes. Patients with type 2 diabetes who were between the ages of 40 and 75 years from 4 Dutch diabetes centers were asked to complete self-report questionnaires covering sociodemographic characteristics, medical characteristics, clinical depression (Center for Epidemiological Studies), and sexual dysfunction (in men: International Index of Erectile Function; in women: Female Sexual Function Index). In total, 158 type 2 diabetes patients (68% men) completed the cross-sectional survey. On the basis of predefined criteria, 69% of men and 70% of women were classified with some degree of sexual dysfunction. Univariable logistic regression analyses revealed that sexual dysfunctions were associated with higher age, clinical depression (Center for Epidemiological Studies score ≥16), and one or more diabetes-related complications in both men and women. Multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed that clinical depression was most strongly associated with both male (OR = 6.87, 95% CI [1.77, 26.63]) and female (OR = 9.33, 95% CI [1.03, 84.87]) sexual dysfunction. In conclusion, sexual dysfunction is highly prevalent in men and women with type 2 diabetes and is associated with higher age, clinical depression, and diabetes-related complications. These results suggest that addressing sexual dysfunction in diabetes care is important.

Validation of a model to estimate personalised screening frequency to monitor diabetic retinopathy.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our study aimed to validate a model to determine a personalised screening frequency for diabetic retinopathy. METHODS: A model calculating a personalised screening interval for monitoring retinopathy based on patients' risk profile was validated using the data of 3,319 type 2 diabetic patients in the Diabetes Care System West-Friesland, the Netherlands. Two-field fundus photographs were graded according to the EURODIAB coding system. Sight-threatening retinopathy (STR) was considered to be grades 3-5. Validity of the model was assessed using calibration and discrimination measures. We compared model-based time of screening with time of STR diagnosis and calculated the differences in the number of fundus photographs using the model compared with those in annual or biennial screening. RESULTS: During a mean of 53 months of follow-up, 76 patients (2.3%) developed STR. Using the model, the mean screening interval was 31 months, leading to a reduced screening frequency of 61% compared with annual screening and 23% compared with biennial screening. STR incidence occurred after a mean of 26 months after the model-based time of screening in 67 patients (88.2%). In nine patients (11.8%), STR had developed before the model-based time of screening. The discriminatory ability of the model was good (C-statistic 0.83; 95% CI 0.74, 0.92). Calibration showed that the model overestimated STR risk. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: A large reduction in retinopathy screening was achieved using the model in this population of patients with a very low incidence of retinopathy. Considering the number of potentially missed cases of STR, there is room for improvement in the model. Use of the model for personalised screening may eventually help to reduce healthcare use and costs of diabetes care.

HbA1c, fasting and 2 h plasma glucose in current, ex- and never-smokers: a meta-analysis.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The relationships between smoking and glycaemic variables have not been well explored. We compared HbA1c, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2 h plasma glucose (2H-PG) in current, ex- and never-smokers. METHODS: This meta-analysis used individual data from 16,886 men and 18,539 women without known diabetes in 12 DETECT-2 consortium studies and in the French Data from an Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR) and Telecom studies. Means of three glycaemic variables in current, ex- and never-smokers were modelled by linear regression, with study as a random factor. The I (2) statistic was used to evaluate heterogeneity among studies. RESULTS: HbA1c was 0.10% (95% CI 0.08, 0.12) (1.1 mmol/mol [0.9, 1.3]) higher in current smokers and 0.03% (0.01, 0.05) (0.3 mmol/mol [0.1, 0.5]) higher in ex-smokers, compared with never-smokers. For FPG, there was no significant difference between current and never-smokers (-0.004 mmol/l [-0.03, 0.02]) but FPG was higher in ex-smokers (0.12 mmol/l [0.09, 0.14]). In comparison with never-smokers, 2H-PG was lower (-0.44 mmol/l [-0.52, -0.37]) in current smokers, with no difference for ex-smokers (0.02 mmol/l [-0.06, 0.09]). There was a large and unexplained heterogeneity among studies, with I (2) always above 50%; I (2) was little changed after stratification by sex and adjustment for age and BMI. In this study population, current smokers had a prevalence of diabetes that was 1.30% higher as screened by HbA1c and 0.52% lower as screened by 2H-PG, in comparison with never-smokers. CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: Across this heterogeneous group of studies, current smokers had a higher HbA1c and lower 2H-PG than never-smokers. This will affect the chances of smokers being diagnosed with diabetes.

Discovery of biomarkers for glycaemic deterioration before and after the onset of type 2 diabetes: rationale and design of the epidemiological studies within the IMI DIRECT Consortium.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The DIRECT (Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification) Study is part of a European Union Framework 7 Innovative Medicines Initiative project, a joint undertaking between four industry and 21 academic partners throughout Europe. The Consortium aims to discover and validate biomarkers that: (1) predict the rate of glycaemic deterioration before and after type 2 diabetes onset; (2) predict the response to diabetes therapies; and (3) help stratify type 2 diabetes into clearly definable disease subclasses that can be treated more effectively than without stratification. This paper describes two new prospective cohort studies conducted as part of DIRECT. METHODS: Prediabetic participants (target sample size 2,200-2,700) and patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (target sample size ~1,000) are undergoing detailed metabolic phenotyping at baseline and 18 months and 36 months later. Abdominal, pancreatic and liver fat is assessed using MRI. Insulin secretion and action are assessed using frequently sampled OGTTs in non-diabetic participants, and frequently sampled mixed-meal tolerance tests in patients with type 2 diabetes. Biosamples include venous blood, faeces, urine and nail clippings, which, among other biochemical analyses, will be characterised at genetic, transcriptomic, metabolomic, proteomic and metagenomic levels. Lifestyle is assessed using high-resolution triaxial accelerometry, 24 h diet record, and food habit questionnaires. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: DIRECT will yield an unprecedented array of biomaterials and data. This resource, available through managed access to scientists within and outside the Consortium, will facilitate the development of new treatments and therapeutic strategies for the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes.

Homoarginine and mortality in an older population: the Hoorn study.

BACKGROUND: Homoarginine is an amino acid that may be involved in nitric oxide and energy metabolism. Previous studies in patient populations showed that low homoarginine levels indicate an increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease. We evaluated whether low plasma levels of homoarginine are associated with elevated, overall and cause-specific mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Hoorn study is a population-based study among older men and women. We calculated Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) for overall and cause-specific mortality according to sex-specific homoarginine quartiles. RESULTS: We included 606 study participants (51·3% women; 70·0 ± 6·6 years). Homoarginine concentrations were higher in men (1·63 ± 0·51 µM), compared with women (1·30 ± 0·44 µM; P < 0·001). After a median follow-up time of 7·8 years, 112 study participants died, including 31 deaths due to cardiovascular diseases and 30 due to cancer. Associations between homoarginine levels and mortality showed a threshold effect with a significant risk increase from the second to the first quartile. Compared with the upper three quartiles, the age-, sex- and BMI-adjusted HR (with 95% CI) in the first quartile was 2·26 (1·52-3·32) for overall mortality, 4·20 (2·03-8·69) for cardiovascular mortality and 1·25 (0·55-2·85) for cancer mortality. These associations remained materially unchanged after multivariate adjustments. CONCLUSIONS: Low plasma concentrations of homoarginine are a risk marker for overall mortality and especially for cardiovascular mortality in the older general population. Further studies are warranted to elucidate the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms.

Insulin sensitivity and carotid intima-media thickness: relationship between insulin sensitivity and cardiovascular risk study.

OBJECTIVE: Despite a wealth of experimental data in animal models, the independent association of insulin resistance with early carotid atherosclerosis in man has not been demonstrated. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We studied a European cohort of 525 men and 655 women (mean age, 44 ± 8 years) free of conditions known to affect carotid wall (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia). All subjects received an oral glucose tolerance test, a euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp (M/I as a measure of insulin sensitivity), and B-mode carotid ultrasound. In 833 participants (380 men), the carotid ultrasound was repeated after 3 years. In men, baseline intima-media thickness in the common carotid artery (CCA-IMT) was significantly higher (P<0.05) in the lowest M/I tertile, whereas in women CCA-IMT was higher (P<0.0005) in the highest fasting plasma glucose tertile (after adjustment for established risk factors). In multiple regression models, with CCA-IMT as the dependent variable and with risk factors and univariate metabolic correlates as independent variables, circulating free fatty acids and the leptin:adiponectin ratio replaced M/I as independent metabolic determinants of CCA-IMT in men. The strongest metabolic determinant of CCA-IMT in women was fasting plasma glucose. Three-year CCA-IMT changes were not associated with any cardio-metabolic risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: In young-to-middle aged apparently healthy people, the association of CCA-IMT with insulin sensitivity and its metabolic correlates differs between men and women. Lower insulin sensitivity is associated with higher IMT only in men; this association seems to be mediated by circulating free fatty acids and adipocytokines. In women, CCA-IMT is independently associated with fasting plasma glucose.

Resource use and costs of type 2 diabetes patients receiving managed or protocolized primary care: a controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The increasing prevalence of diabetes is associated with increased health care use and costs. Innovations to improve the quality of care, manage the increasing demand for health care and control the growth of health care costs are needed. The aim of this study is to evaluate the care process and costs of managed, protocolized and usual care for type 2 diabetes patients from a societal perspective. METHODS: In two distinct regions of the Netherlands, both managed and protocolized diabetes care were implemented. Managed care was characterized by centralized organization, coordination, responsibility and centralized annual assessment. Protocolized care had a partly centralized organizational structure. Usual care was characterized by a decentralized organizational structure. Using a quasi-experimental control group pretest-posttest design, the care process (guideline adherence) and costs were compared between managed (n = 253), protocolized (n = 197), and usual care (n = 333). We made a distinction between direct health care costs, direct non-health care costs and indirect costs. Multivariate regression models were used to estimate differences in costs adjusted for confounding factors. Because of the skewed distribution of the costs, bootstrapping methods (5000 replications) with a bias-corrected and accelerated approach were used to estimate 95% confidence intervals (CI) around the differences in costs. RESULTS: Compared to usual and protocolized care, in managed care more patients were treated according to diabetes guidelines. Secondary health care use was higher in patients under usual care compared to managed and protocolized care. Compared to usual care, direct costs were significantly lower in managed care (€-1.181 (95% CI: -2.597 to -334)) while indirect costs were higher (€ 758 (95% CI: -353 to 2.701), although not significant. Direct, indirect and total costs were lower in protocolized care compared to usual care (though not significantly). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to usual care, managed care was significantly associated with better process in terms of diabetes care, fewer secondary care consultations and lower health care costs. The same trends were seen for protocolized care, however they were not statistically significant. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled trials: ISRCTN66124817.

Glycated hemoglobin measurement and prediction of cardiovascular disease.

IMPORTANCE: The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294,998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <7.5%), and high (≥ 7.5%) risk. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20,840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13,237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (-0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.