The association between nutritional risk index and ICU outcomes across hematologic malignancy patients with acute respiratory failure.

Patients with hematological malignancies (HM) are at risk of acute respiratory failure (ARF). Malnutrition, a common association with HM, has the potential to influence ICU outcomes. Geriatric nutritional risk index (G-NRI) is a score derived from albumin and weight, which reflects risk of protein-energy malnutrition. We evaluated the association between G-NRI at ICU admission and ICU mortality in HM patients with ARF. We conducted a single center retrospective study of ventilated HM patients between 2014 and 2018. We calculated G-NRI for all patients using their ICU admission albumin and weight. Our primary outcome was ICU mortality. Secondary outcomes included duration of mechanical ventilation and ICU length of stay. Two hundred eighty patients were admitted to the ICU requiring ventilation. Median age was 62 years (IQR 51-68), 42% (n = 118) were females, and median SOFA score was 11 (IQR 9-14). The most common type of HM was acute leukemia (54%) and 40% underwent hematopoietic cell transplant. Median G-NRI was 87 (IQR 79-99). ICU mortality was 51% (n = 143) with a median duration of ventilation of 4 days (IQR 2-7). Mortality across those at severe malnutrition (NRI < 83.5) was 59% (65/111) compared to 46% (76/164) across those with moderate-no risk (p = 0.047). On multivariable analysis, severe NRI (OR 2.34, 95% CI 1.04-5.27, p = 0.04) was significantly associated with ICU mortality. In this single center, exploratory study, severe G-NRI was prognostic of ICU mortality in HM patients admitted with respiratory failure.

Critical Care Management of Toxicities Associated With Targeted Agents and Immunotherapies for Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the most common serious adverse effects and organ toxicities associated with emerging therapies for cancer that may necessitate admission to the ICU. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: PubMed and Medline search of relevant articles in English on the management of adverse effects of immunotherapy for cancer. DATA EXTRACTION AND DATA SYNTHESIS: Targeted therapies including tyrosine kinase inhibitors, monoclonal antibodies, checkpoint inhibitors, and immune effector cell therapy have improved the outcome and quality of life of patients with cancer. However, severe and life-threatening side effects can occur. These toxicities include infusion or hypersensitivity reactions, cytokine release syndrome, pulmonary, cardiac, renal, hepatic, and neurologic toxicities, hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, opportunistic infections, and endocrinopathies. Cytokine release syndrome is the most common serious toxicity after administration of monoclonal antibodies and immune effector cell therapies. Most of the adverse events from immunotherapy results from an exaggerated T-cell response directed against normal tissue, resulting in the generation of high levels of proinflammatory cytokines. Toxicities from targeted therapies are usually secondary to "on target toxicities." Management is largely supportive and may include discontinuation of the specific agent, corticosteroids, and other immune suppressing agents for severe (grade 3 or 4) immune-related adverse events like neurotoxicity and pneumonitis. CONCLUSIONS: The complexity of toxicities associated with modern targeted and immunotherapeutic agents for cancer require a multidisciplinary approach among ICU staff, oncologists, and organ specialists and adoption of standardized treatment protocols to ensure the best possible patient outcomes.

A suspected septic transfusion reaction associated with posttransfusion contamination of a platelet pool by vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium.

BACKGROUND: Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) are antibiotic-resistant organisms associated with both colonization and serious life-threatening infection in health care settings. Contamination of platelet concentrates (PCs) with Enterococcus can result in transfusion-transmitted infection. CASE PRESENTATION: This report describes the investigation of a septic transfusion case involving a 27-year-old male patient with relapsed acute leukemia who was transfused with a 5-day-old buffy coat PC pool and developed fever and rigors. DISCUSSION: Microbiology testing and pulse-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) was done on patient blood cultures obtained from peripheral and central lines. Microbiology and molecular testing were also performed on the remaining posttransfusion PC pool, which was refrigerated for 24 hours before microbiology testing. Red blood cell (RBC) and plasma units associated with the implicated PCs were screened for microbial contamination. Patient blood cultures obtained from peripheral and central lines yielded vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium. Gram stain of a sample from the platelet pool was negative but coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CNST) and VRE were isolated on culture. Antibiotic sensitivity and PFGE profiles of several VRE isolates from the patient before and after transfusion, and the PC pool, revealed that all were closely related. Associated RBC and plasma components tested negative for microbial contamination. CONCLUSIONS: Microbiological and molecular investigations showed a relationship between VRE isolated from the patient before and after transfusion, and therefore it is postulated that a patient-to-PC retrograde contamination (from either blood or skin) occurred. As the CNST isolated from the PC pool was not isolated from patient samples, its implication in the transfusion event is unknown.

Emergent airway management of the critically ill patient: current opinion in critical care.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To describe techniques to facilitate safe intubation in critically ill patients. RECENT FINDINGS: Despite advances in the treatment of critically ill patients, endotracheal intubation remains a high-risk procedure associated with complications that can lead to appreciable morbidity and mortality. In addition to the usual anatomical factors that can predict a difficult intubation, incorporating pathophysiological considerations and crisis resource management may enhance safety and mitigate risk. Enhancing preoxygenation with high-flow oxygen or noninvasive ventilation, the early use of intravenous fluids and/or vasopressors to prevent hypotension and videolaryngoscopy for first pass success are all promising additions to airway management.Facilitating intubation by either sedation with paralysis or allowing patients to continue to breathe spontaneously are reasonable options for airway management. These approaches have potential advantages and disadvantages. SUMMARY: Recognizing the unique challenges of endotracheal intubation in critically ill patients is paramount in limiting further deterioration during this high-risk procedure. A safe approach to intubation focuses on recognizing risk factors that predict challenges in achieving an optimal view of the glottis, maintaining optimal oxygenation, and minimizing the risks and benefits of sedation/induction strategies that are meant to facilitate intubation and avoid clinical deterioration.

Will This Patient Be Difficult to Intubate?: The Rational Clinical Examination Systematic Review.

IMPORTANCE: Recognizing patients in whom endotracheal intubation is likely to be difficult can help alert physicians to the need for assistance from a clinician with airway training and having advanced airway management equipment available. OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors and physical findings that predict difficult intubation. DATA SOURCES: The databases of MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from 1946 to June 2018 and from 1947 to June 2018, respectively, and the reference lists from the retrieved articles and previous reviews were searched for additional studies. STUDY SELECTION: Sixty-two studies with high (level 1-3) methodological quality that evaluated the accuracy of clinical findings for identifying difficult intubation were reviewed. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two authors independently abstracted data. Bivariate random-effects meta-analyses were used to calculate summary positive likelihood ratios across studies or univariate random-effects models when bivariate models failed to converge. RESULTS: Among the 62 high-quality studies involving 33 559 patients, 10% (95% CI, 8.2%-12%) of patients were difficult to intubate. The physical examination findings that best predicted a difficult intubation included a grade of class 3 on the upper lip bite test (lower incisors cannot extend to reach the upper lip; positive likelihood ratio, 14 [95% CI, 8.9-22]; specificity, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.93-0.97]), shorter hyomental distance (range of <3-5.5 cm; positive likelihood ratio, 6.4 [95% CI, 4.1-10]; specificity, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.94-0.98]), retrognathia (mandible measuring <9 cm from the angle of the jaw to the tip of the chin or subjectively short; positive likelihood ratio, 6.0 [95% CI, 3.1-11]; specificity, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.90-1.0]), and a combination of physical findings based on the Wilson score (positive likelihood ratio, 9.1 [95% CI, 5.1-16]; specificity, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.90-0.98]). The widely used modified Mallampati score (≥3) had a positive likelihood ratio of 4.1 (95% CI, 3.0-5.6; specificity, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.81-0.91]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Although several simple clinical findings are useful for predicting a higher likelihood of difficult endotracheal intubation, no clinical finding reliably excludes a difficult intubation. An abnormal upper lip bite test, which is easily assessed by clinicians, raises the probability of difficult intubation from 10% to greater than 60% for the average-risk patient.

Time-Limited Trials in the Intensive Care Unit to Promote Goal-Concordant Patient Care.

Consider the hypothetical case of a 75-year-old patient admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for acute hypoxic respiratory failure due to pneumonia and systolic heart failure. Although she suffers from a potentially treatable infection, her advanced age and chronic illness increase her risk of experiencing a poor outcome. Her family feels conflicted about whether the use of mechanical ventilation would be acceptable given what they understand about her values and preferences. In the ICU setting, clinicians, patients, and surrogate decision-makers frequently face challenges of prognostic uncertainty as well as uncertainty regarding patients' goals and values. Time-limited trials (TLTs) of life-sustaining treatments in the ICU have been proposed as one strategy to help facilitate goal-concordant care in the midst of a complex and high-stakes decision-making environment. TLTs represent an agreement between clinicians and patients or surrogate decision-makers to employ a therapy for an agreed-upon time period, with a plan for subsequent reassessment of the patient's progress according to previously-established criteria for improvement or decline. Herein, we review the concept of TLTs in intensive care, and explore their potential benefits, barriers, and challenges. Research demonstrates that, in practice, TLTs are conducted infrequently and often incompletely, and are challenged by system-level factors that diminish their effectiveness. The promise of TLTs in intensive care warrants continued research efforts, including implementation studies to improve adoption and fidelity, observational research to determine optimal timeframes for TLTs, and interventional trials to determine if TLTs ultimately improve the delivery of goal-concordant care in the ICU.

Management of the Critically Ill Adult Chimeric Antigen Receptor-T Cell Therapy Patient: A Critical Care Perspective.

OBJECTIVES: Chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy, a type of immune effector therapy for cancer, has demonstrated encouraging results in clinical trials for the treatment of patients with refractory hematologic malignancies. Nevertheless, there are toxicities specific to these treatments that, if not recognized and treated appropriately, can lead to multiple organ failure and death. This article is a comprehensive review of the available literature and provides, from a critical care perspective, recommendations by experienced intensivists in the care of critically ill adult chimeric antigen receptor T-cell patients. DATA SOURCES: PubMed and Medline search of articles published from 2006 to date. STUDY SELECTION: Clinical studies, reviews, or guidelines were selected and reviewed by the authors. DATA EXTRACTION: Not available. DATA SYNTHESIS: Not available. CONCLUSIONS: Until modifications in chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy decrease their toxicities, the intensivist will play a leading role in the management of critically ill chimeric antigen receptor T-cell patients. As this novel immunotherapeutic approach becomes widely available, all critical care clinicians need to be familiar with the recognition and management of complications associated with this treatment.

An unexpected but underestimated case of disseminated toxoplasmosis.

Toxoplasma gondii is a ubiquitous intracellular parasite that can cause disseminated infection following reactivation in immunocompromised hosts. We describe a 58-year-old man who died of refractory shock because of disseminated toxoplasmosis. The diagnosis was only made postmortem on autopsy. We discuss the importance of considering toxoplasmosis on the differential diagnosis in high-risk patients, and review the role of screening and chemoprophylaxis in preventing infection.

Discriminative Accuracy of Physician and Nurse Predictions for Survival and Functional Outcomes 6 Months After an ICU Admission.

IMPORTANCE: Predictions of long-term survival and functional outcomes influence decision making for critically ill patients, yet little is known regarding their accuracy. OBJECTIVE: To determine the discriminative accuracy of intensive care unit (ICU) physicians and nurses in predicting 6-month patient mortality and morbidity, including ambulation, toileting, and cognition. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective cohort study conducted in 5 ICUs in 3 hospitals in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and enrolling patients who spent at least 3 days in the ICU from October 2013 until May 2014 and required mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, or both. These patients' attending physicians and bedside nurses were also enrolled. Follow-up was completed in December 2014. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: ICU physicians' and nurses' binary predictions of in-hospital mortality and 6-month outcomes, including mortality, return to original residence, ability to toilet independently, ability to ambulate up 10 stairs independently, and ability to remember most things, think clearly, and solve day-to-day problems (ie, normal cognition). For each outcome, physicians and nurses provided a dichotomous prediction and rated their confidence in that prediction on a 5-point Likert scale. Outcomes were assessed via interviews with surviving patients or their surrogates at 6 months. Discriminative accuracy was measured using positive and negative likelihood ratios (LRs), C statistics, and other operating characteristics. RESULTS: Among 340 patients approached, 303 (89%) consented (median age, 62 years [interquartile range, 53-71]; 57% men; 32% African American); 6-month follow-up was completed for 299 (99%), of whom 169 (57%) were alive. Predictions were made by 47 physicians and 128 nurses. Physicians most accurately predicted 6-month mortality (positive LR, 5.91 [95% CI, 3.74-9.32]; negative LR, 0.41 [95% CI, 0.33-0.52]; C statistic, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.72-0.81]) and least accurately predicted cognition (positive LR, 2.36 [95% CI, 1.36-4.12]; negative LR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.61-0.92]; C statistic, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.54-0.68]). Nurses most accurately predicted in-hospital mortality (positive LR, 4.71 [95% CI, 2.94-7.56]; negative LR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.49-0.75]; C statistic, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.62-0.74]) and least accurately predicted cognition (positive LR, 1.50 [95% CI, 0.86-2.60]; negative LR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.73-1.06]; C statistic, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.48-0.62]). Discriminative accuracy was higher when physicians and nurses were confident about their predictions (eg, for physicians' confident predictions of 6-month mortality: positive LR, 33.00 [95% CI, 8.34-130.63]; negative LR, 0.18 [95% CI, 0.09-0.35]; C statistic, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.84-0.96]). Compared with a predictive model including objective clinical variables, a model that also included physician and nurse predictions had significantly higher discriminative accuracy for in-hospital mortality, 6-month mortality, and return to original residence (P < .01 for all). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: ICU physicians' and nurses' discriminative accuracy in predicting 6-month outcomes of critically ill patients varied depending on the outcome being predicted and confidence of the predictors. Further research is needed to better understand how clinicians derive prognostic estimates of long-term outcomes.

Mapping the process of ICU care delivery to improve treatment decisions in acute respiratory failure.

Evidence suggests system-level norms and care processes influence individual patients' medical decisions, including end-of-life decisions for patients with critical illnesses like acute respiratory failure. Yet, little is known about how these processes unfold over the course of a patient's critical illness in the intensive care unit (ICU). Our objective was to map current-state ICU care delivery processes for patients with acute respiratory failure and to identify opportunities to improve the process. We conducted a process mapping study at two academic medical centers, using focus groups and semi-structured interviews. The 70 participants represented 17 distinct roles in ICU care, including interprofessional medical ICU and palliative care clinicians, surrogate decision makers, and patient survivors. Participants refined and endorsed a process map of current-state care delivery for all patients admitted to the ICU with acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation. The process contains four critical periods for active deliberation about the use of life-sustaining treatments. However, active deliberation steps are inconsistently performed and frequently disrupted, leading to prolongation of life-sustaining treatment by default, without consideration of patients' individual goals and priorities. Interventions to standardize active deliberation in the ICU may improve treatment decisions for ICU patients with acute respiratory failure.

Defining the Time-limited Trial for Patients with Critical Illness: An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report.

In critical care, the specific, structured approach to patient care known as a "time-limited trial" has been promoted in the literature to help patients, surrogate decision makers, and clinicians navigate consequential decisions about life-sustaining therapy in the face of uncertainty. Despite promotion of the time-limited trial approach, a lack of consensus about its definition and essential elements prevents optimal clinical use and rigorous evaluation of its impact. The objectives of this American Thoracic Society Workshop Committee were to establish a consensus definition of a time-limited trial in critical care, identify the essential elements for conducting a time-limited trial, and prioritize directions for future work. We achieved these objectives through a structured search of the literature, a modified Delphi process with 100 interdisciplinary and interprofessional stakeholders, and iterative committee discussions. We conclude that a time-limited trial for patients with critical illness is a collaborative plan among clinicians and a patient and/or their surrogate decision makers to use life-sustaining therapy for a defined duration, after which the patient's response to therapy informs the decision to continue care directed toward recovery, transition to care focused exclusively on comfort, or extend the trial's duration. The plan's 16 essential elements follow four sequential phases: consider, plan, support, and reassess. We acknowledge considerable gaps in evidence about the impact of time-limited trials and highlight a concern that if inadequately implemented, time-limited trials may perpetuate unintended harm. Future work is needed to better implement this defined, specific approach to care in practice through a person-centered equity lens and to evaluate its impact on patients, surrogates, and clinicians.

Impact of Interprofessional Teamwork on Aligning Intensive Care Unit Care with Patient Goals: A Qualitative Study of Transactive Memory Systems.

Rationale: Although aligning care with patient goals is fundamental to critical care, this process is often delayed and leads to conflict among patients, families, and intensive care unit (ICU) teams. Interprofessional collaboration within ICU teams is an opportunity to improve goal-aligned care, yet this collaboration is poorly understood. A better understanding of how ICU team members work together to provide goal-aligned care may identify new strategies for improvement. Objectives: Transactive memory systems is a theory of group mind that explains how high-performing teams use a shared memory and collective cognition. We applied this theory to characterize the process of interprofessional collaboration within ICU teams and its relationship with goal-aligned care. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of focus group (n = 10) and semistructured interview (n = 8) transcripts, gathered during a parent study at two academic medical centers on the process of ICU care delivery in acute respiratory failure. Participants (N = 70) included interprofessional ICU and palliative care team members, surrogates, and patient survivors. We used directed content analysis, applying transactive memory systems theory and its major components (specialization, coordination, credibility) to examine ICU team collaboration. Results: Participants described each ICU profession as having a specialized role in aligning care with patient goals. Different professions have different opportunities to gather knowledge about patient goals and priorities, which results in dispersion of this knowledge among different team members. To share and use this dispersed knowledge, ICU teams rely on an informal coordination process and "side conversations." This process is a workaround for formal channels (e.g., health records, interprofessional rounds) that do not adequately convey knowledge about patient goals. This informal process does not occur if team members are discouraged from asserting their knowledge because of hierarchy or lack of psychological safety. Conversely, coordination succeeds when team members recognize each other as credible sources of valued knowledge. Conclusions: We found that ICU team members work together to align care with patient goals and priorities, using transactive memory systems. The successful function of these systems can be disrupted or promoted by ICU organizational and cultural factors, which are potential targets for efforts to increase goal-aligned care.

Using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score to assess mortality risk in older medical patients admitted to the intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic information at the time of hospital discharge can help guide goals-of-care discussions for future care. We sought to assess the association between the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS), which may highlight patients' risk of adverse outcomes at the time of hospital discharge, and in-hospital death among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) within 12 months of a previous hospital discharge. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study that included patients aged 75 years or older admitted at least twice over a 12-month period to the general medicine service at 7 academic centres and large community-based teaching hospitals in Toronto and Mississauga, Ontario, Canada, from Apr. 1, 2010, to Dec. 31, 2019. The HFRS (categorized as low, moderate or high frailty risk) was calculated at the time of discharge from the first hospital admission. Outcomes included ICU admission and death during the second hospital admission. RESULTS: The cohort included 22 178 patients, of whom 1767 (8.0%) were categorized as having high frailty risk, 9464 (42.7%) as having moderate frailty risk, and 10 947 (49.4%) as having low frailty risk. One hundred patients (5.7%) with high frailty risk were admitted to the ICU, compared to 566 (6.0%) of those with moderate risk and 790 (7.2%) of those with low risk. After adjustment for age, sex, hospital, day of admission, time of admission and Laboratory-based Acute Physiology Score, the odds of ICU admission were not significantly different for patients with high (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78 to 1.23) or moderate (adjusted OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.09) frailty risk compared to those with low frailty risk. Among patients admitted to the ICU, 75 (75.0%) of those with high frailty risk died, compared to 317 (56.0%) of those with moderate risk and 416 (52.7%) of those with low risk. After multivariable adjustment, the risk of death after ICU admission was higher for patients with high frailty risk than for those with low frailty risk (adjusted OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.77 to 4.77). INTERPRETATION: Among patients readmitted to hospital within 12 months, patients with high frailty risk were similarly likely as those with lower frailty risk to be admitted to the ICU but were more likely to die if admitted to ICU. The HFRS at hospital discharge can inform prognosis, which can help guide discussions for preferences for ICU care during future hospital stays.

Association of Thoracic Computed Tomographic Measurements and Outcomes in Patients with Hematologic Malignancies Requiring Mechanical Ventilation.

Rationale: Patients with hematologic malignancies requiring mechanical ventilation have historically experienced poor outcomes.Objectives: We aimed to determine whether body composition characteristics derived from thoracic computed tomographic (CT) imaging were associated with time to liberation from mechanical ventilation.Methods: We evaluated mechanically ventilated patients with hematological malignancies admitted between 2014 and 2018. We included patients with thoracic CT imaging completed between 1 month before and 48 hours after intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We assessed the association of carinal skeletal muscle cross-sectional area (CSA), subcutaneous fat CSA, and fat index (fat/skeletal muscle ratio) with time to liberation from mechanical ventilation within 28 days. We accounted for the competing event of death within 28 days of mechanical ventilation.Results: One hundred fifty-six patients were included; the mean age was 57 years (standard deviation 14) and 39% were female. Thirty-seven percent had received a hematopoietic stem cell transplant, and the median ratio of arterial oxygen tension/pressure to fraction of inspired oxygen was 134 mm Hg (interquartile range [IQR], 92-205). Median skeletal muscle CSA was 68 cm2 (IQR, 54-88) and subcutaneous fat CSA was 38 cm2 (IQR, 27-52). Forty-two percent of patients were liberated from mechanical ventilation within 28 days and 56% died in the ICU. Subcutaneous fat CSA (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR], 0.81; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], -0.68 to 0.97) and fat index (sHR, 0.81; 95% CI, -0.68 to 0.97) were significantly associated with longer time to liberation from mechanical ventilation. Skeletal muscle CSA was not associated with time to liberation from ventilation (sHR, 1.08; 95% CI, -0.94 to 1.23).Conclusions: Body composition measurements based on thoracic CT scans were associated with time to liberation from ventilation. These could represent novel surrogate markers of physical frailty in patients with hematologic malignancies receiving mechanical ventilation.

Observational study of agreement between attending and trainee physicians on the surprise question: "Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 months?"

BACKGROUND: Optimal end-of-life care requires identifying patients that are near the end of life. The extent to which attending physicians and trainee physicians agree on the prognoses of their patients is unknown. We investigated agreement between attending and trainee physician on the surprise question: "Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 months?", a question intended to assess mortality risk and unmet palliative care needs. METHODS: This was a multicentre prospective cohort study of general internal medicine patients at 7 tertiary academic hospitals in Ontario, Canada. General internal medicine attending and senior trainee physician dyads were asked the surprise question for each of the patients for whom they were responsible. Surprise question response agreement was quantified by Cohen's kappa using Bayesian multilevel modeling to account for clustering by physician dyad. Mortality was recorded at 12 months. RESULTS: Surprise question responses encompassed 546 patients from 30 attending-trainee physician dyads on academic general internal medicine teams at 7 tertiary academic hospitals in Ontario, Canada. Patients had median age 75 years (IQR 60-85), 260 (48%) were female, and 138 (25%) were dependent for some or all activities of daily living. Trainee and attending physician responses agreed in 406 (75%) patients with adjusted Cohen's kappa of 0.54 (95% credible interval 0.41 to 0.66). Vital status was confirmed for 417 (76%) patients of whom 160 (38% of 417) had died. Using a response of "No" to predict 12-month mortality had positive likelihood ratios of 1.84 (95% CrI 1.55 to 2.22, trainee physicians) and 1.51 (95% CrI 1.30 to 1.72, attending physicians), and negative likelihood ratios of 0.31 (95% CrI 0.17 to 0.48, trainee physicians) and 0.25 (95% CrI 0.10 to 0.46, attending physicians). CONCLUSION: Trainee and attending physician responses to the surprise question agreed in 54% of cases after correcting for chance agreement. Physicians had similar discriminative accuracy; both groups had better accuracy predicting which patients would survive as opposed to which patients would die. Different opinions of a patient's prognosis may contribute to confusion for patients and missed opportunities for engagement with palliative care services.

Prognosticating Outcomes and Nudging Decisions with Electronic Records in the Intensive Care Unit Trial Protocol.

Expert recommendations to discuss prognosis and offer palliative options for critically ill patients at high risk of death are variably heeded by intensive care unit (ICU) clinicians. How to best promote such communication to avoid potentially unwanted aggressive care is unknown. The PONDER-ICU (Prognosticating Outcomes and Nudging Decisions with Electronic Records in the ICU) study is a 33-month pragmatic, stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial testing the effectiveness of two electronic health record (EHR) interventions designed to increase ICU clinicians' engagement of critically ill patients at high risk of death and their caregivers in discussions about all treatment options, including care focused on comfort. We hypothesize that the quality of care and patient-centered outcomes can be improved by requiring ICU clinicians to document a functional prognostic estimate (intervention A) and/or to provide justification if they have not offered patients the option of comfort-focused care (intervention B). The trial enrolls all adult patients admitted to 17 ICUs in 10 hospitals in North Carolina with a preexisting life-limiting illness and acute respiratory failure requiring continuous mechanical ventilation for at least 48 hours. Eligibility is determined using a validated algorithm in the EHR. The sequence in which hospitals transition from usual care (control), to intervention A or B and then to combined interventions A + B, is randomly assigned. The primary outcome is hospital length of stay. Secondary outcomes include other clinical outcomes, palliative care process measures, and nurse-assessed quality of dying and death.Clinical trial registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03139838).

Association between sepsis survivorship and long-term cardiovascular outcomes in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: We aimed to determine the association between sepsis and long-term cardiovascular events. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of observational studies evaluating post-sepsis cardiovascular outcomes in adult sepsis survivors. MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register and Database of Systematic Reviews were searched from inception until April 21st, 2021. Two reviewers independently extracted individual study data and evaluated risk of bias. Random-effects models estimated the pooled crude cumulative incidence and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of cardiovascular events compared to either non-septic hospital survivors or population controls. Primary outcomes included myocardial infarction, stroke, and congestive heart failure; outcomes were analysed at maximum reported follow-up (from 30 days to beyond 5 years post-discharge). RESULTS: Of 12,649 screened citations, 27 studies (25 cohort studies, 2 case-crossover studies) were included with a median of 4,289 (IQR 502-68,125) sepsis survivors and 18,399 (IQR 4,028-83,506) controls per study. The pooled cumulative incidence of myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure in sepsis survivors ranged from 3 to 9% at longest reported follow-up. Sepsis was associated with a higher long-term risk of myocardial infarction (aHR 1.77 [95% CI 1.26 to 2.48]; low certainty), stroke (aHR 1.67 [95% CI 1.37 to 2.05]; low certainty), and congestive heart failure (aHR 1.65 [95% CI 1.46 to 1.86]; very low certainty) compared to non-sepsis controls. CONCLUSIONS: Surviving sepsis may be associated with a long-term, excess hazard of late cardiovascular events which may persist for at least 5 years following hospital discharge.

Factors associated with physicians' predictions of six-month mortality in critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND: Physician's estimates of a patient's prognosis are an important component in shared decision-making. However, the variables influencing physician's judgments are not well understood. We aimed to determine which physician and patient factors are associated with physicians' predictions of critically ill patients' six-month mortality and the accuracy and confidence of these predictions. METHODS: Prospective cohort study evaluating physicians' predictions of six-month mortality. Using univariate and multivariable generalized estimating equations, we assessed the association between baseline physician and patient characteristics with predictions of six-month death, as well as accuracy and confidence of these predictions. RESULTS: Our cohort was comprised 300 patients and 47 physicians. Physicians were asked to predict if patients would be alive or dead at six months and to report their confidence in these predictions. Physicians predicted that 99 (33%) patients would die. The key factors associated with both the direction and accuracy of prediction were older age of the patient, the presence of malignancy, being in a medical ICU, and higher APACHE III scores. The factors associated with lower confidence included older physician age, being in a medical ICU and higher APACHE III score. CONCLUSIONS: Patient level factors are associated with predictions of mortality at six months. The accuracy and confidence of the predictions are associated with both physician and patients' factors. The influence of these factors should be considered when physicians reflect on how they make predictions for critically ill patients.

Improving Transitions of Care between the Intensive Care Unit and General Internal Medicine Ward. A Demonstration Study.

Background: In-hospital transfers such as from the intensive care unit (ICU) to the general internal medicine (GIM) ward place patients at risk of adverse events. A structured handover tool may improve transitions from the ICU to the GIM ward. Objective: To develop, implement, and evaluate a customized user-designed transfer tool to improve transitions from the ICU to the GIM ward. Methods: This was a pre-post intervention study at a tertiary academic hospital. We developed and implemented a user-designed, structured, handwritten ICU-to-GIM transfer tool. The tool included active medical issues, functional status, medications and medication changes, consulting services, code status, and emergency contact information. Transfer tool users included GIM physicians, ICU physicians, and critical care rapid response team nurses. An implementation audit and mixed qualitative and quantitative analysis of pre-post survey responses was used to evaluate clinician satisfaction and the perceived quality of patient transfers. Results: The pre-post survey response rate was 51.8% (99/191). Respondents included GIM residents (58.5%), ICU rapid response team physicians and nurses (24.2%), and GIM attending physicians (17.2%). Less than half of clinicians (48.8%) reported that the preintervention transfer process was adequate. Clinicians who used the transfer tool reported that the transfer process was improved (93.3% vs. 48.8%, P = 0.03). Clinician-reported understanding of medication changes in the ICU increased (69.2% vs. 29.1%, P = 0.004), as did their ability to plan for a safe hospital discharge (69.2% vs. 31.0%, P = 0.01). However, only 64.2% of audited transfers used the tool. Frequently omitted sections included home medications (missing in 83.4% of audits), new medications (33.3%), and secondary diagnosis (33.3%). Thematic analysis of free-text responses identified areas for improvement including clarifying the course of ICU events and enhancing tool usability. Conclusion: A user-designed, structured, handwritten transfer tool may improve the perceived quality of patient transfers from the ICU to the GIM wards.