Seek COVER: using a disease proxy to rapidly develop and validate a personalized risk calculator for COVID-19 outcomes in an international network.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether we could use influenza data to develop prediction models for COVID-19 to increase the speed at which prediction models can reliably be developed and validated early in a pandemic. We developed COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) scores that quantify a patient's risk of hospital admission with pneumonia (COVER-H), hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death (COVER-I), or fatality (COVER-F) in the 30-days following COVID-19 diagnosis using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms and tested this in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We analyzed a federated network of electronic medical records and administrative claims data from 14 data sources and 6 countries containing data collected on or before 4/27/2020. We used a 2-step process to develop 3 scores using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms any time prior to 2020. The first step was to create a data-driven model using LASSO regularized logistic regression, the covariates of which were used to develop aggregate covariates for the second step where the COVER scores were developed using a smaller set of features. These 3 COVER scores were then externally validated on patients with 1) influenza or flu-like symptoms and 2) confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis across 5 databases from South Korea, Spain, and the United States. Outcomes included i) hospitalization with pneumonia, ii) hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death, and iii) death in the 30 days after index date. RESULTS: Overall, 44,507 COVID-19 patients were included for model validation. We identified 7 predictors (history of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, kidney disease) which combined with age and sex discriminated which patients would experience any of our three outcomes. The models achieved good performance in influenza and COVID-19 cohorts. For COVID-19 the AUC ranges were, COVER-H: 0.69-0.81, COVER-I: 0.73-0.91, and COVER-F: 0.72-0.90. Calibration varied across the validations with some of the COVID-19 validations being less well calibrated than the influenza validations. CONCLUSIONS: This research demonstrated the utility of using a proxy disease to develop a prediction model. The 3 COVER models with 9-predictors that were developed using influenza data perform well for COVID-19 patients for predicting hospitalization, intensive services, and fatality. The scores showed good discriminatory performance which transferred well to the COVID-19 population. There was some miscalibration in the COVID-19 validations, which is potentially due to the difference in symptom severity between the two diseases. A possible solution for this is to recalibrate the models in each location before use.

Clinical and multi-omics cross-phenotyping of patients with autoimmune and autoinflammatory diseases: the observational TRANSIMMUNOM protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Autoimmune and autoinflammatory diseases (AIDs) represent a socioeconomic burden as the second cause of chronic illness in Western countries. In this context, the TRANSIMMUNOM clinical protocol is designed to revisit the nosology of AIDs by combining basic, clinical and information sciences. Based on classical and systems biology analyses, it aims to uncover important phenotypes that cut across diagnostic groups so as to discover biomarkers and identify novel therapeutic targets. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: TRANSIMMUNOM is an observational clinical protocol that aims to cross-phenotype a set of 19 AIDs, six related control diseases and healthy volunteers . We assembled a multidisciplinary cohort management team tasked with (1) selecting informative biological (routine and omics type) and clinical parameters to be captured, (2) standardising the sample collection and shipment circuit, (3) selecting omics technologies and benchmarking omics data providers, (4) designing and implementing a multidisease electronic case report form and an omics database and (5) implementing supervised and unsupervised data analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the institutional review board of Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital (ethics committee Ile-De-France 48-15) and done in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and good clinical practice. Written informed consent is obtained from all participants before enrolment in the study. TRANSIMMUNOM's project website provides information about the protocol (https://www.transimmunom.fr/en/) including experimental set-up and tool developments. Results will be disseminated during annual scientific committees appraising the project progresses and at national and international scientific conferences. DISCUSSION: Systems biology approaches are increasingly implemented in human pathophysiology research. The TRANSIMMUNOM study applies such approach to the pathophysiology of AIDs. We believe that this translational systems immunology approach has the potential to provide breakthrough discoveries for better understanding and treatment of AIDs. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02466217; Pre-results.